D1 Preview: 32 Players, 16 Matches

By: Waxangel

FXOLeenock vs GoSu.dde: Leenock's been surprisingly quiet since winning MLG Providence and taking second place in Code S November. He dropped out of 2012's first Code S season quickly after being put into a tough group, and found few opportunities to play in team leagues due to his teammates' strong performances. Even so, the memory of his ZvT rampage in November makes us question what kind of chance the challenger dde has. He's a Terran, North American, and lacking big tournament achievements – it's about everything our #1 seed could have asked for MLG out in his #32 opponent.

Prediction: Leenock 2 – 0 dde


mouzThorZaIN vs Liquid`Sheth: Some fans may have seen Sheth's all-kill of EG in the recent Liquid vs Evil Geniuses IPL TAC match as a break through moment, but Sheth has been a strong player for some time now. He's beaten a wide variety of top foreigners, and it's been tough Korean opponents like PuMa and HerO who have kept him from higher finishes in recent tournaments. Even so, ThorZaIN is still a very difficult opponent, as the Swedish Terran is right at the top of the foreigner totem poll with players like Stephano and Ret. Though TvZ used to be pointed out as the hole in ThorZaIN's game, he's improved on his spoon style to bring that match-up right up there with the rest.

Prediction: ThorZaIN 2 – 1 Sheth


IMNesTea vs EG.DeMusliM: DeMusliM's tale is an unfortunate one, as some freak injury has always killed his momentum every time he's started to get hyped up. IEM Sao Paulo was another let down, suggesting that maybe there was no substance behind the hype, or that perhaps yet more time was required. In any case, DeMusliM couldn't have asked for a worse opponent in his potential bounce back game.

Admittedly, NesTea doesn't look as strong as he did before. HayprO and NaNiwa attained glory at Nestea's expense back in Providence, while present GSL finalist Genius was able to cash in on Nestea's reputation as well. However, he is still a formidable player, one who defeated a field stronger than the one at the actual Winter Arena during the Korean preliminaries to qualify in first place. On the other hand, DeMusliM's last performance against a good Korean Zerg (viOlet at IEM Sao Paulo) was 'mixed' to put it nicely.

Prediction: NesTea 2 – 1 DeMusliM

FXO_z vs EG.IdrA: IdrA has done an awful lot of complaining about ZvP lately – or at least it seems that way because myeg.net enjoys asking him about that match-up at every opportunity. Whether you agree about the large scale balance aspect or not, you can't blame IdrA, at least not at the personal level. ZvP has not treated him well lately, and there seems to be no sign of that changing soon. Oz hasn't been able to make it far in non-Korean tournaments, but he's an elite Korean Protoss who reached the GSL semi-finals in the past. If there hasn't been some earthshaking change for IdrA in recent days, then we can look forward to a predictable result.

Prediction: Oz 2 – 0 IdrA


EG.HuK vs coL.Minigun: Though their list of accomplishments contrasts drastically, Minigun is still a very dangerous opponent for HuK. HuK has a long history of being eliminated from tournaments by Protoss players. In the past five months, Inori, Elfi, Seiplo, and HasuObs have all dealt HuK a painful exit. The major exception for HuK was at MLG Orlando, where he managed to defeat MC to win the championship. However, that seems to be the exception to the rule. HuK is still the favored player here, just not by a large margin.

Prediction: HuK 2 – 1 Minigun


aTn.Socke vs vile.DdoRo: If the many complaints about Starcraft II being a high variance game are true, then that would make PvP an even more unpredictable sub-set of an already chaotic game. Similar to the HuK vs Minigun match-up above, Socke is a lot of danger despite being the more accomplished player, precisely because of this volatility. Socke is the safer pick just because of his general tournament success, but a Ddoro upset would be no surprise here.

Prediction: Socke 2 – 1 Ddoro


Liquid`Ret vs QxG.SaSe: Ret and SaSe are two of the more well-known foreigners in the scene, with Ret having a great spurt of tournament success since late 2011, while SaSe is known for his skill and commitment to training in Korea. While both are certainly capable of giving Koreans a run for their money, their relative strength at the relevant match-up favors Ret. While SaSe is a very strong PvT player, his PvZ has definitely been a weakness so far. On the other hand, Ret is a well rounded player in all match-ups, but his ZvP has been especially good.

Prediction: Ret 2 – 0 SaSe


NSH_San vs IMMvp: San seems to be a popular underdog pick against Mvp – who for all his domination of the GSL and foreign tournaments, never conclusively answered the questions surrounding his TvP ability. San fell off the radar for quite a while, but he has returned as somewhat textbook, but very solid PvT player. From early gateway pressure, late game deathballin' to the occasional DT sneak attack, San is accomplished at all of the usual PvT tactics. San could beat Mvp if he's having a bad day, so this is a match-up worth keeping an eye on.

Prediction: Mvp 2 – 1 San


coL.MvPDongRaeGu vs SlayerS_GanZi: It's a coup for MLG that despite failing to secure MMA for Winter Arena, that they managed to get his even hotter rival in DongRaeGu. The "best in the world" picture is in constant flux with every new week of GSL results, but right now, DongRaeGu is one of the only two players in the world who can say he will be competing in the GSL finals.

Though Ganzi hasn't reached such illustrious heights, he's no pushover for DRG. His TvZ is by far his best match-up, and he's definitely more than capable of taking DRG down. DRG also has a bit of a disadvantage in having shown the exact contents of his ZvT A-game just a few days in the Code S semi-finals, and Ganzi will have adjusted accordingly. It seems too hard even for a player of DRG's caliber to beat two top-tier TvZ players in such a short period, so I'll predict the upset here.

Prediction: Ganzi 2 – 1 DongRaeGu


RoX.KIS.Pomi vs ST_Parting: PvP is the matchup where foreigners most often score those rare upsets against Koreans, so this could be a good match to watch for those who like to see foreigners win at all costs. Parting is still favored here, but a surprise is a possibility.

Prediction: Parting 2 – 1 Pomi


coL.Drewbie vs oGs.TheStC: Drewbie's record between September and January: Seven wins, twenty eight losses. Yes people, that's a win percentage of 20%. Drewbie's record since February? Twelve wins and one loss for a win percentage 92%. Now, that's what you call a turn around. We don't know what kind of illicit drugs Drewbie was taking when he came out of nowhere to absolutely destroy the North American qualifiers, but hopefully he has some left for the main event. He's going up against TheStC – a very strong Terran player whose lack of a GSL resume misleads greatly. Think of him as another player like Puma or HerO, who has all the skill in the world, but has still somehow missed out on Code S. Though Drewbie has conquered North America in his return, this challenge is just of another nature altogether.

Prediction: TheStC 2 – 1 Drewbie


dignitas.meRz vs oGs.MC: If Merz has watched MC's recent PvT games, he'll know what his game plan should be: Defend the all-in. However, that's easier said than done. MC has shown mastery over such a wide variety of timing attacks, that simply expecting one might not be enough. Merz is decent against Protoss, but he'll need absolutely top level scouting, timing, and micro to hold of MC's attacks. Then again, MC might just choose to play normal, and Merz will be at a disadvantage in that department as well. Sometimes, when life gives you lemons, you just have to go the loser's bracket.

Prediction: MC 2 – 0 Merz


Liquid`HayprO vs dignitas.SjoW: Banjo fever has faded significantly since MLG Providence, where it hit its peak as HayprO upset Nestea. HayprO hasn't been able to play that well again since, but he's been practicing hard in Korea to try and reproduce that form. SjoW should provide an interesting benchmark against which HayprO can measure himself, as SjoW has been a rock in the European since what seems like the beginning of time. Though his glory days of challenging for championships have probably passed, he's still a very skilled player that can cause trouble for anyone. Considering it's been just over a month since HayprO returned to Korea, it might be a little too soon to overcome this obstacle.

Prediction: SjoW 2 – 1 HayprO


Axslav vs Empire|viOLet: The only 'unemployed' player coming into the Winter Arena, perhaps Axslav has the most to gain. He was left teamless after ReIGN's untimely dissolvement, but the Winter Arena will provide him with a golden opportunity to advertise himself to prospective employers (if impressive stream view numbers weren't enough). However, as is the story with most of the North American players who could use this tournament as an opportunity, Axslav is faced with an extremely tough opponent. viOLet is either the best foreigner of 2012, or a very good Korean, depending on what you make of his base of operations in Texas. He's coming off a very impressive championship run at IEM Sao Paulo, and it's going to be an uphill battle for Axslav.

Prediction: viOLet 2 – 0 Axslav


IMLosirA vs MarineKingPrime: Losira was almost a one of a kind Zerg back at his MLG Columbus debut, with remarkable handspeed and mechanics rivaled by nearly none of this peers. Many Zerg players have caught up to that level since then, but Losira remains a very good Korean Zerg. MarineKing has a similar story, as he was once the only player in the world to regularly micro marines to jaw-dropping victories over seemingly unbeatable forces, but that's become par for the course among the upper echelon Terran players. MarineKing has seen his star slightly fade as well, but is still a very good Terran player, making this one of the most evenly matched duels of the first round.

Prediction: MarineKing 2 – 1 Losira


Grubby vs QxG.NaNiwa: I wonder how NaNiwa feels about this opponent, considering that he's the the number two seed and all. Was he secretly hoping for the #7 player from North America? PvP is a volatile match-up and Grubby is an unpredictable player, so we can definitely say that Leenock definitely got the better end of the bargain. Not to say that NaNiwa isn't favored here, as he's always been a very good PvP player, minimizing the luck aspect and winning with skillful play. Grubby is good enough to present a challenge, but probably won't get the upset.

Prediction: NaNiwa 2 – 0 Grubby