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[GG] Red Army Mafia

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 28 2009 20:45 GMT
#85
got my role
Jävla skit
coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 29 2009 08:12 GMT
#148
First of all, i wanna run for office.

Any of you know me, i havent played mafia here ever.

I dont trust any of you right now, and i am willing to use you all to get all those traitor bastards.
I dont know you either, so i dont have any prejudgment.

If elected I will lynch at random on day 1, I dont mind if they are vets or newbs, im not wasting the lynch on inactives, cause they will be modkill anyway, i dont know who is vet and who is knew, so i read all voices.

I havent read previous games, just the last one.

I know a lot of shit and have a quick mind.

I will start disposing the 3 extra votes to active townies and spread them, so they wont make any difference. As the game progres i will dispose less votes, so i will gain votes gradually. I havent decided yet how, wanna make some calculations about how many mafia are out there first.

I have a really good strategy, i will post it and after this i will be dead tomorrow unless i am office and have bodyguards.

Ukranians can rolecheck, so there are 4 options:

More than one Ukranian rolechecking the same guy --> they lose KP not knowing
Ukranian rolecheck Ukranian --> they lose KP knowing
Ukranian rolecheck NKVD as Ukranian --> Better thing could happen to town and lose KP
Ukranian rolecheck Townie --> they gain KP


In the other hand:

NKVD rolecheck Townie --> do ukranians can conceal their ID? (if they cant we can abuse this)
NKVD rolecheck Ukranian --> could be NKVD undercover.


So for now NKVD cant be trusted. I say they should infiltrate the mafia and play by their own for a while. We should trust their ability to make mafia hit mafia hunting NKVD, i think is the most dificult place to be now.

Oh, i forgot... office man is inmune to DT (his role becomes Field Marshal to NKVD and Mafiya checks) so rolecheck runners NOW.

Im voting for myself.





We also discovered the body of redtooth lying in the mud today. After deserting the army, he apparently attempted to go to a local tavern for a shot of vodka. Unfortunately for him, but fortunately for the people’s justice, some Ukrainians had other ideas and blew out his brains, as well as stripping him naked. All that was left on him were a pair of pennies on top of his eyelids.



How could this not being a clue, Ace?

It clearly points to "some Ukranians" and descrives behaviors. Its related to death rituals (i believe more than one)

But i agree it wont help to much right now, just checked the 54 profiles to see any clear, and there is nothing yet...
Jävla skit
coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 29 2009 08:58 GMT
#151
On July 29 2009 17:37 Ace wrote:
ok there are a few reasons I wouldn't vote for you:

1.) You say you're so sure you'd be dead tomorrow - how? Thats just really out of the blue bs as no one knows you and you haven't posted anything that could get you killed at the moment.

2.) You have some grand plan - great. If you were so sure you'd be dead why would you hide it? If the plan is really that good why not tell us, get yourself elected and live a bit longer? Some of us aren't stupid enough to elect some guy and then wait to hear his plan - tell us now or give up hope of being elected.

3.) Why would an NKVD Agent want to disguise them self as Ukrainian? That would lead to them getting killed if they got role checked. I'm hoping they really aren't that bad. Sure they could take the chance a Mafia checks them and hey they are in the Mafia circle - but when their kills don't sync up that same night what do you think happens? :/

4.) For someone who "knows a lot of shit and has a quick mind" you've already made a huge mistake. You propose that you will lynch at random. Oh really? So instead of trying to glean more information by questioning suspects you'd rather spin the wheel and see who it lands on? Oh how is that different that a townie that randomly votes for whomever they feel like? Why would we want you as Field Marshal? You'd be pretty useless.

5.) Lastly, going with the someone who has a quick mind idea...why would you spread your votes out to townies? You don't know if they are Ukrainian scum or not so how will you know they are using their votes with pro-town(Army) benefits in mind? You don't because even if you were an NKVD Agent I doubt you'd investigate all 3 of them in time to know. Hence, it's a bad idea to do so.




1)I could be as dead as any townie. I am pretty sure there are plenty of mafia, cuz if there are not so much this would be unbalanced. They have a grotesque KP after first night unless they are less than 6, we are 54, 1/9 of them as mafia is not likely. And even if it was like that they could have 5 or 6 KP on night two. Any runner will be checked, so all of them who dont make it are most likely death by day 2 unless is mafia or NKVD. I think is good to grab DTS on me today, and in someone everyday, and mafia is going to kill every single sureshot, so i am dead anyway and you too.

2) Im doing my maths right now, posted it and erased it cause i saw something wrong with my numbers. Let me finish it and i will post it, of course. I dont mind if i died and town wins because of my numbers.

3)As said before... Ukranian KP deppend on their detection. While more Ukranians are shown by DT less people DIE. So NKVD disguised as Ukranian lower their DT effectiveness and therefor their killpower.

4)Show me 1 suspect if i win, maybe you are right in *only* this point.

5)I said SPREAD, im not giving my vote to someone in particular, i just wont vote 4 times for someone unless we have good reasons. I cant DT so clues should be the way into this game to me,not DT.
Jävla skit
coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 29 2009 09:00 GMT
#152
@1) sry, should it say "by day 3"
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 29 2009 09:05 GMT
#153
triple post!


And while NKVD shows as Ukranian they cant trust each other if DT them
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-07-29 13:14:19
July 29 2009 13:09 GMT
#166
Ok, i wrote my numbers and got this:

Ukranians dont know each other. So their DT are independent.

we use THIS FORMULA (check my maths if you want):
All of we are m=53 (of course the ukranian doesnt check himself)
mafia are n
and this represent how many different dets they could get.
[image loading]


And this one:
Just townies are m (thats 54-mafias)
mafia are n
and this represent how many worst cases (all dt goes to different townies)
[image loading]



so, first i have: (in scientific notation)
mafia::how many groups::how many worst cases.

1::53::52
2::1431::1275
3::26235::19600
4::367290::211876
5::4.18711e+06::1.7123e+06
6::4.04754e+07::1.07376e+07
7::3.41149e+08::5.35247e+07
8::2.55862e+09::2.15553e+08
9::1.73418e+10::7.08931e+08
10::1.07519e+11::1.91733e+09
11::6.1579e+11::4.28056e+09
12::3.28421e+12::7.89865e+09
13::1.64211e+13::1.20332e+10
14:: 7.74136e+13::1.50845e+10
15::3.45781e+14::1.54713e+10
16::1.46957e+15::1.28758e+10
17::5.96472e+15::8.5975e+09
18::2.31961e+16::4.53757e+09
19::8.66803e+16::1.85597e+09
20::3.12049e+17::5.73166e+08
21::1.08474e+18::1.29024e+08
22::3.64868e+18::2.01601e+07
23::1.18979e+19::2.0358e+06
24::3.76766e+19::118755
25::1.16044e+20::3276
26::3.48131e+20::27



The second column growths MUCH FASTER than the third, but that the
difference is huge when it comes to more than 6 DTS, so, lets say
mafia are 6, pretty sure they are more, they technically kill every
two days, so they mostly will have a potential KP of 6, 1/9 of
townies, in the time townies get 2 lynch to put on the 6 mafias. Thats
not balanced, give caller some credit...

with 9 it has a better balance, but if there are 12 people appearing
as ukranians we balance this to our favor.

There is NOTHING random here, is statistically correct. Like poker.

While in 9 they have 1 of 20 to make an allkill in 12 they only
have 1 of 400. And even if they get the allkill the killing power will
be 9 anyway with 3 agents. And in much cases, when 11 of them succed
on DT townies some of them will not kill because they are townies
aswell.

Again, if we have 4 DT we are even better. Having our DTs as ukranians
always benefits us. They even difficult the ukranians joining toghether.
I have tested many cases, like when game advances we will notice less
benefits on this due to the targets will reduce for them to DT

So think again, we surely have less DT than them, is easyer for them hunt down agents, and yes, they are our key, so they need to disguise as ukranians, is the only way they will be safe, they will lower KP, and even may infiltrate ukranians

So, you know now, encourage our agents to infiltrate ukranian scum and
our mother russia will be stronger.


edit: didnt knew that : 7 was so splitted it. And said 1 of 40, is clearly 1 of 400.
Jävla skit
coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 29 2009 14:20 GMT
#173
I sended something like this to LucasWooj, but i corrected something i noticed when i copied it here.

No problem!
Its quite simple, but the numbers are really big.
It is called combinatory. You want to know how many posible cases are from something to happen... lets say

I have 1 dice, that is the first collum
I have 6 posible results, thats the second row.
I have 5 usefull values, thats the third (just 5 others are no mafia)


So, when i have 2 dices in first collumn
i have many posible rolls, 21 posible, some of them are the same.
Finally i will only have 6 couples among those 2 not mafia.

With these small numbers it closes sooner, as the inflexion point is when mafia is 1/4 of town. Then the third collumn start to shrink again.

what i did was consider a 53 sided dice to 54 players, because you wont rolecheck on yourself. And did it from 1 dice to 26, because in 27 you cant have a clean DT for ukranians, they would always detect other ukranian, exept in one only case.

as i used c++ to computate it the numbers are in scientific notation, so 6.92568e+10 is meaning 70KKK and 4.90131e+6 is meaning 50KK

Jävla skit
coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 29 2009 14:25 GMT
#174
On July 29 2009 23:13 Shikyo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 29 2009 22:44 Caller wrote:
it has come to my attention that there is some serious cheating going on. I will likely have to replace any affected roles, and so I ask if anybody would be willing to sub in for these roles (not existing players, lol)

Let us know the names of all the cheaters =)

Hmmm and it might actually this time around be beneficial for some townies to act like they were mafia. What an interesting game.



i think you are right.



who is cheating? and how could you cheat?
Jävla skit
coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 29 2009 16:52 GMT
#201
I am reminding in this page again:

Is better for town if NKVD appears as ukranian to DT cuz that way mafia gets less info from their DTS and town gets the exact same info.
Jävla skit
coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 29 2009 20:07 GMT
#233
Ace, really you dont make any single good point at this.


If there are 9 rebels and 6 agents one of them being RC tonight and death tomorrow is MUCH posible.

If he is an NKVD Agent what makes you think he will live 2 days to use up all his rolechecks?

We act on behavioral things mostly, mafia doesnt, they will start sweeping first and will kill anyone who they find that is not on their team. If they are not confident of one of their own then they have to use another night checking. To RC is not a good way of checking, cause NKVD will still appear Ukranian, even after his dts are gone. The best way could be setting up a killing, and that may require 2 nights instead of one. So by claming to be ukranians they win at least 1 night, sometimes 2 and could be more.

Under this conditions i would suggest ANYONE who could appear to be ukranian to do so, and i would say NKVD shouldnt be on the office.

Given the rule set we have the chance to screw their ability to propper rolecheck, wtf lets do it.



Once again let's assume our enemies aren't stupid. How is an NKVD Agent going to get into the Rebel organization?


And yes, wont be easy, but our DT would have for sure at least 1 confirmed townie where to deliver his info. The thing is he doesnt need to get into. If they think he could me ukranian he will still have an extra night and even when he is rolechecked and dont get info about it is even more the info that ukranians lose.
Jävla skit
coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 29 2009 20:19 GMT
#238
On July 30 2009 05:09 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 30 2009 05:07 coltrane wrote:
Ace, really you dont make any single good point at this.


If there are 9 rebels and 6 agents one of them being RC tonight and death tomorrow is MUCH posible.

If he is an NKVD Agent what makes you think he will live 2 days to use up all his rolechecks?

We act on behavioral things mostly, mafia doesnt, they will start sweeping first and will kill anyone who they find that is not on their team. If they are not confident of one of their own then they have to use another night checking. To RC is not a good way of checking, cause NKVD will still appear Ukranian, even after his dts are gone. The best way could be setting up a killing, and that may require 2 nights instead of one. So by claming to be ukranians they win at least 1 night, sometimes 2 and could be more.

Under this conditions i would suggest ANYONE who could appear to be ukranian to do so, and i would say NKVD shouldnt be on the office.

Given the rule set we have the chance to screw their ability to propper rolecheck, wtf lets do it.



Once again let's assume our enemies aren't stupid. How is an NKVD Agent going to get into the Rebel organization?


And yes, wont be easy, but our DT would have for sure at least 1 confirmed townie where to deliver his info. The thing is he doesnt need to get into. If they think he could me ukranian he will still have an extra night and even when he is rolechecked and dont get info about it is even more the info that ukranians lose.


no



seriously??? how deep...
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 29 2009 20:42 GMT
#247
On July 30 2009 05:23 Ace wrote:
yep. Between your math that makes no sense because it works on some retarded assumptions like every NKVD agent getting lucky with checks, and information not spreading really fast (which it does) and the fact you don't know how many roles are present - to this. Trying to convince NKVD agents to go undercover when they'd have a hell of a time convincing the town their target is a rebel and they'd have to find the dumbest Ukrainian around to let them in AND survive.

This is why you won't be elected. You can't even think through the most basic of scenarios.


Of course i have thought about it. But there will be clues to. And NKVD will have where comunicate their information always.


On July 30 2009 05:33 Ace wrote:
of course the NKVD agent won't lie about the results of his role check.

But if all of them are undercover and an NKVD agent checks another NKVD agent the guy flips Rebel. So now we are about to lynch 2 NKVD Agents.

Of course the same exact thing happens if an NKVD Agent RCs a Rebel. Of course it's even worse this time because the NKVD Agent will be killed immediately assuming the Ukrainians aren't stupid. They don't have to RC him right away - just ask him who he killed previously and who he will kill the next night.

In both situations the NKVD agent loses or everyone has an option to lie that takes even more time to disprove. No one has yet to answer how you sort through the liars because there is the case that both people are telling the truth, both are innocent but since both of them went undercover they both appear guilty. Ukrainians win.


The thing is, if you are ukranian and you contact me as an ukranian and ask me about my killing list i just RC you for free and have the rest of the day to spread information. even mass PM to everyone else a in-case-i-die-tonight-he-RC-me
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 29 2009 20:54 GMT
#251
On July 30 2009 05:49 Falcynn wrote:
I wish I could say something here to help argue why having NKVD agents pose as Ukrainians is a bad idea...but I think Ace has pretty much covered all of the reasons. Probably the only advantage I can see is that the threat of the detectives doing this will cause the Ukrainians to hesitate in contacting each other after a successful role check. Considering the fact that the town already has a pretty big advantage, doing this can arguably be worth the detectives time as it stalls any form of organization between the Ukrainians.

However, I think anyone who thinks that the detectives can easily infiltrate a decently sized portion of the network are seriously underestimating how smart these guys can be. Just the threat of DTs posing as Ukrainians is going to make them a hell of a lot more cautious in terms of who they trust. Verifying someone as Ukrainian is, as Ace mentioned, as easy as asking them who they killed the previous night or who they'll kill the next night. The detective would have to be incredibly lucky to get either of these questions correct, and if he doesn't he'll be killed. Basically he'll go through all of this work to get just a single Ukrainian, which can easily be done without all of this pretending.

In short, I'm in favor of NKVD posing as Ukrainian, but I'm heavily against this idea of them trying to infiltrate the network as it'll just be a waste of time and effort on their part imo.



The first idea is a plus granted.

The second is just speculation, i wouldn risk my hand on that, but could be fkn awesome.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-07-29 20:57:08
July 29 2009 20:56 GMT
#252
On July 30 2009 05:53 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 30 2009 05:37 L wrote:
\

As for Ace's last post: you've essentially summed up why our DTs are going to want to play rebel (ALL OF THEM). If we can make it very hard for mafia to team up, we force mafia self-killing. Any NKVD agent that gets into a ring gains a huge amount of information, and our risk/reward goes from 1 NKVD:1Ukranian to 1NKVD:1Ring. The slower mafia play, and the more information they gather, the more we would want our DTs rolling rebel. The only possible shit-scenario would be NKVD finding each other, but that's where people need to bust out their behavioral analysis hats and get to work.



come on L, let's be serious here. In fact assume I'm a Ukrainian Rebel and you're an NKVD agent. do you REALLY think you'd ever successfully convince me you really are a Rebel and that you could get me to give up information about what I know and then get me lynched?

The plan only works assuming our enemies are completely fucking stupid. I'm not playing the game based on that because it's an epic fail. Watch the NKVD agents all try it and all die. I guarantee it if the Rebels are even half competent.



They will die anyway if they got checked as anything else.... If they are checked as ukranians they will actually talk to an 100% ukranian before die = free RC
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 29 2009 21:11 GMT
#265
On July 30 2009 06:00 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 30 2009 05:39 Scamp wrote:
Well that situation of the two NKVD agents targeting each other would be unfortunate but unlikely.

Besides, the point isn't to take out one Ukranian. The point is to infiltrate a group in order to take out a bunch of them. I don't think I'd want to start hitting people if I were in a Ukranian group of two or three, so getting "confirmed" by killing someone wouldn't be a problem until later.


Impossible to call. No idea how the NKVD agents individually select who they want to Role Check. you can't get IN the group - that's the problem. Once again think of it basically like this:

Ace - NKVD Agent
Scamp - Ukrainian Rebel

Ace - o hai scamp, I checked you out. You're Rebel, so am I! <3
Scamp - o ok. cool. This is L and coltrane, their rebels too. Sup?
Ace - lol newbs I'm an Agent. GG.

Do you really think you'd do that?

or is it more like this:

Ace -o hai scamp, I checked you out. You're Rebel, so am I! <3
Scamp - that's nice hoe. Who did you kill last night?
Ace - oh I killed...um...Foolishness. (I have no idea who really did so I'm guessing)
Scamp(who knows the truth because he knows who killed Foolishness) - o ok. Well I can't trust you yet so who are you going to kill tomorrow night?
Ace - um...I'll kill LucasWoj!
Scamp - ok well when Lucas shows up dead I'll let you know!

2 problems already fucks the Agent over:
I die immediately because Scamp knows the truth and kills me.
I survive till the next day but Lucas doesn't die unless I get super lucky. If he doesn't I'm killed. The best I could do is roleclaim to the town that I'm an NKVD agent and found Scamp.
Scamp of course says he's also an NKVD Agent and was undercover also.

How do you sort through the liars? Even worse - what if Scamp really is an NKVD agent.

Come on, I know what I'm talking about here. You guys are assuming the Rebels are so dumb as not to ask 2 simple questions which would destroy any NKVD agent without a lot of information ahead of time.



Your dialogues are so inocent that i am ashamed.

NKVD doesnt need to contact rebels. The rebels need to contact rebels. It turns that any rebel would be risking giving up himself if he roleclaim to NKVD possing as rebbel.

coltrane (Rebbel):r u ukranian? who you killed lastnight?
Ace (NKVD):I hitted L but he survives... and you?
coltrane: i RC you, didnt hit. Who are you hitting tonight?
Ace (NKVD):no idea, L is townie, but lived lastnight... if protected we lose KP, think i will RC.
coltrane: i dont trust you. I will hit L tonight.
Ace: I dont trust you either.

so ace tells L he is going to be hitted, and that coltrane is 100% rebbel. Of course, a NKVD who RC an Ukranian doesnt contact him.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 29 2009 21:18 GMT
#275
They always will have more time as ukranians than as anything else. An ukranian DT needs to be checked by ukranians. A townie DT doesnt need anything, is a sure shot.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 29 2009 21:24 GMT
#281
On July 30 2009 06:19 So no fek wrote:
There's certainly risks in the NKVD disguising themselves as rebels, however, I think that's the entire point of their role and the rebels not knowing each other. To throw a wrench into things. The ability to disguise yourself as a townie/another blue is nearly worthless. If you're rolechecked by an NKVD, you're safe to kill - the only reason they wouldn't kill you is if you disguised yourself as a townie, and they'd rather leave a townie alive and look for a red to kill - other than that, the only benefit of the ability is to disguise yourself as blue, and cause as much havoc as you possibly can.



They cant, because they wont have a good kill list until they meet up together. They must use all of their KP killing anyone DTed as non ukranian. And everytime they DT an ukranian they will need to check it. And that will happen more times if our DTS disguise as ukranians.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 29 2009 21:53 GMT
#286
Ace, or you are really wrong and too proudly to realize, or you are just fucking with us.


Is way better have NKVD disguised:
They reduce KP
They may live longer
They keeps mafia from banding so easy
If a mafia RC him and discover him he would have an extra target for the town


The flaws are in yur words:
Is to easy to check :WRONG, is easyer to check townie, you dont need to PM him.
Its risky : WRONG, is safer for the town as they cut KP, is safer for them as they could live another day.


Do you plan to get to the time limit just by luck?
I would preffer having chances on our side, it is a huge plus.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 29 2009 21:53 GMT
#287
Havo to go to work. Back in like 4 hours


VOTE FOR ME, I KNOW WHAT I AM DOING.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 29 2009 22:07 GMT
#296
On July 30 2009 07:02 Ace wrote:
L when you can prove that NKVD/NKVD checks with both being possible Rebels can be avoided and the town can sift through the lies then you can discuss a plan with me. As of now all of you are acting on so many assumptions that are easily crushed by any competent Rebel that it's laughable. I'm kind of wishing I was a Rebel now so I could prove to you guys how to catch an undercover Agent.


sorry, but what a pompuos fuck., You should be discussing plans WITH THE TOWN, you are no one, i dont care if you are vet and i am newb, YOU ARE WRONG, YOU ARE DIVIDING THE TOWN, YOUR BEHAVIOR ISNT TO BE TRUSTED.


Gonna tell this once again

I havent played ever with any of you, and i dont trust anyone and i dont have any prejudgment. I dont care if you are a vet or a newb, and thats exactly why all of you should be voting for me.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 29 2009 22:10 GMT
#298
On July 30 2009 07:05 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 30 2009 07:02 L wrote:
Basically, if NKVD do not contact their targets as a rule, rebels finding rebels cannot safely talk to each other upon fear of being confirmed blue, while our NKVD are free to check for town aligned players. This also prevents ukranians from mass pming people with "lol i checked you".


yes they can. Rebels will always talk to any blue they find. Hence, any NKVD dressed as blue will be contacted whether they want to or not. At this point if you assume everyone followed your rule SURE it confirms the Rebel as guilty BUT the Rebel always has the defense that he is also an undercover NKVD Agent and was contacted first.

How do you find out who is the liar?

Come on, THINK the entire scenario through and stop assuming everyone is dumb to the point they can't realize they have a simple alibi that fucks the town over.


easy, you ask for any information of both, then you lynch one and mafia kills the other, or you lynch both. is a 1:1 trade anyway, and it is good.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 30 2009 00:53 GMT
#325
Let me do some maths again///


We are 54, how many veterans we have? i would say around 5. If we have 5 NKVD that make 10 of 54 marked as veteran.

thats like 3 times they dt a townie, 2 times they dt a rebbel or a dt. That clearly lower the KP in about the same rate than if all NKVD put as vet but it doesnt keep the mafia to find each other. By the other hand the NKVD will be safe for a while, until 2 mafia join up, and then if any one of them made a vet RC before they will join and kill him. That will happen in about 3-4 days, the same rate than if they claim to be rebels. But this could lower the kp more... unless if they know NKVD are showing to be veterans they will hit them 2 night in a row, and kill them anyway in 3-4 days without losing KP. If they show to be veteran we would show about 54 HP from town when it is actually 49 counting veteran as 2. Is way more convenient to lower directly the KP than make them believe we have more HP than we actually have.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 30 2009 02:16 GMT
#335
On July 30 2009 10:49 Ace wrote:
The reason I'd never go with a landmine plan is because if the Mafia are any bit decent at persuasion and have solid timing there is no way it will work. What if the mafia wait until night time to contact each other? Plan is done.



so you trully believe you are a better player than any others? If they wait until night NKVD still have until day post to post/pm anything that knows until that time, we just need actives NKVD, but that stands for any plan.

And it wont be good if a confirmed NKVD screams out to the thread the townies he checked, mafia dont know mafia, so NKVD will be adding KP to mafia if says something like "Ace is townie and L is mafia, i am going to die tonight."

Maths are good for us, not only now, they will be good at each step of the game simply because we only know we are 54 of us and nothing else (52 after MountainDew/Foolishness episode? or they got replaced?)
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 30 2009 02:46 GMT
#340
No, you are wrong. They can trust anyone they DT as townie before some mafia DT on him.

And is much more likely that if two mafias found each other the 2 of them are mafia or 1 is mafia and the other is NKVD.

Two NKVD could still wait for day post and count mafia KP, then they even could not be sure... anyway they wont roleclaim each other if both are NKVD, NKVD doesnt need to roleclaim to mafia, mafia needs to roleclaim to mafia.

And they can go undercover and still make that support group, they should be detecting until they get 2 townies and save the third detect for later.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 30 2009 02:49 GMT
#342
On July 30 2009 11:41 TranceStorm wrote:
How could the NKVD agents 'get a group of confirmed Townies under their wing to cover their ass by Day 3' while proving that they aren't mafia at the same time (to the townies of course)?



The townies support group doesnt need to know until NKVD is getting targeted. And if he is not undercover he will never know is going to die. The only way for them to know is being undercover and have contact with mafia -> landmine. Then they could PM all that he knows to the townies just before his death
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-07-30 03:22:10
July 30 2009 03:17 GMT
#346
If a mafia detects him and start to ask him who has he killed. Then both are busted, and NKVD has to use his last dt and talk to confirmed townies only. The townies just wait and see the NKVD dead and confirm the information that way.\


edit: if they dont die, then the info is saved until the death of claimed NKVD
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 30 2009 05:07 GMT
#351
i think both things are good, but still stick on disguising as rebel is better.


Anyway, the right call for NKVD should be one or the other, maybe could be a good thing to spread them in both cases.


Since i am still with insomnia and we have plenty of time i will go to my c++ world and try to make a better simulation of all this things. I have been programing automatons for a while, so i think i could get a good model before going to sleep.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 30 2009 18:08 GMT
#370
On July 31 2009 02:53 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 31 2009 02:18 Last Romantic wrote:
Has there been any agreed-upon course of action for Armymen who receive Rebel PMs?


Well since no NKVD Agent should be disguised as a Rebel you shouldn't be getting any PM.



WHen did we decided that??


half of the town dont think as you.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 30 2009 18:11 GMT
#371
if you recive a PM from a rebel bust him in a smart way... but i think rebels wont PM much, they will be scared of contact wrong people.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 30 2009 18:31 GMT
#374
On July 31 2009 03:18 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 31 2009 03:08 coltrane wrote:
On July 31 2009 02:53 Ace wrote:
On July 31 2009 02:18 Last Romantic wrote:
Has there been any agreed-upon course of action for Armymen who receive Rebel PMs?


Well since no NKVD Agent should be disguised as a Rebel you shouldn't be getting any PM.



WHen did we decided that??


half of the town dont think as you.


Well since I'm better at this game than 99% of the people playing and I have never ever been wrong I think most people should follow my advice.



what a prick
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 30 2009 18:48 GMT
#379
On July 31 2009 03:36 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 31 2009 03:34 StorrZerg wrote:
ace if your mafia then we all dead woot woot go L


If I were Mafia would I repeatedly be making a case to save the NKVD Agents from certain doom
Like I said, if I were Mafia I'd really, really want the NKVD Agents to disguise themselves as Rebels since it makes my job much easier.




You are SOOOO WRONG, its incredible, it is just the other way around, you are actually helping mafia with this.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 30 2009 19:14 GMT
#390
i know you are right, zato..


ok, english is not my native lenguage, i have it hard there, because i studied it many years ago.

Im not a humble person, I am honest and my words are just what i think. And humbleness... like it is not Ace attitud right now.


Whenever he tends to act like he is the only one to be listen i will tell him that he is wrong.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 30 2009 21:26 GMT
#407
Ok, look... my maths arent wrong. by now i have tryed thousands of simulations (its really easy, i have alredy wrote a town generator in c++) and with this rules killing random, lynching random the right balance is something like 10 mafia, 4 vets, 4 medics, 5 NKVD. Anything different will make some kind of imba game, of course could be on more on one role or in other, but if there are more than 12 mafia we are screwed, if they are less than 7 they are, and so on with any of those numbers.
When i changed the rc on NKVD to vets town wins 53% or so... while putting them on ukranian town wins 59% Now i am at work, i dont have my code here, but at night i can post numbers or the complete c++ code if any wants to check it.

I changed my vote to L, since i dont want Ace to be elected and i think most of you just follow the shiny glow of those who selfclaim them as vets.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 31 2009 00:13 GMT
#432
On July 31 2009 07:14 Shikyo wrote:
I've thought about this a little. Posing as Veteran has the benefit of possible living longer. Also, if a NKVD checks another NKVD, he'd know it was a blue(I mean red) and could start talking to him and form a circle.

Posing as Ukrainians needs to have enough gains to overweight the innate losses. The obvious problem of course is that when a NKVD checks another NKVD, instead of being able to form any kind of a circle, it'll most likely lead to the death of both NKVD's. Although some people say that the risk is too small to consider, I'm... not sure. The chance is still there, and it'd be an extremely heavy blow to the town, and a waste of 2 days of lynches(Potentially like 18 kills max for the Ukrainians).

Now, besides this huge problem, the gains are: If an Ukrainian checks a NKVD posing as an Ukrainian, he contacts him and both get killed after the Ukrainian claims to be NKVD as well. But what if the Ukrainian doesn't contact him in that manner? What if he starts PMing him ordinarily to find out what role he might be? Or analyse posts? And if he's not convinced that he's not rebel, he might just hit someone else and avoid him? Furthermore, trading 1-to-1 townies to Ukrainians isn't a good idea. Ukrainians most likely have a huge KP in this game. Trading 1-1 is most likely not going to be enough unless they kill enough of their own.

But then again the Ukrainians couldn't properly form circles..... Sigh, which of these is better depends on who the Ukrainians are and their playing style and personality, pretty much. I don't think I can pick the plan that is better at this moment.



Dont any one get it? We cant form any ring or whatever in any case.

If a NKVD gets dt by anyone is MUCH MORE PROBABLE that he was DTed from an ukranian. Then NKVD posing as any they want cant trust any who pmed them about their cover. THats why we dont gain any posibility for NKVD to make a ring if they look like vets or any blue role. The advantage you describe is not such.

Then, if the NKVD possing as Ukranian is not contacted, then he will live more and get all of his DTs into a good use.

So the only advantege of get them as vets (to be able to form rings) isnt real. I say it again. They MUST go as ukranians. If you are a NKVD and dont believe me, then go as vet, is better than other things... but you are wasting a nice oportunity (and fun like shit).



And, about the maths, i made an automaton program, is not based upon random things, is based in individual decisions of each virtual player. But, that i made it just for myself. Dont despite good math analisys, like in poker it could give us an edge.


I would lynch ace cuz he is dividing the town... but i am voting for L, and really dont give a shit about first lynch.-
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 31 2009 03:47 GMT
#486
On July 31 2009 12:45 Railxp wrote:
COMRADE GENERAL CALLER DOES NO WRONG. It was their fault for looking like American capitalist pigs spies!


+1
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 31 2009 15:55 GMT
#497
On July 31 2009 22:17 Shikyo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 31 2009 21:26 Sinensis wrote:
On July 31 2009 19:09 Siefu wrote:
On July 31 2009 09:13 coltrane wrote:
On July 31 2009 07:14 Shikyo wrote:
I've thought about this a little. Posing as Veteran has the benefit of possible living longer. Also, if a NKVD checks another NKVD, he'd know it was a blue(I mean red) and could start talking to him and form a circle.

Posing as Ukrainians needs to have enough gains to overweight the innate losses. The obvious problem of course is that when a NKVD checks another NKVD, instead of being able to form any kind of a circle, it'll most likely lead to the death of both NKVD's. Although some people say that the risk is too small to consider, I'm... not sure. The chance is still there, and it'd be an extremely heavy blow to the town, and a waste of 2 days of lynches(Potentially like 18 kills max for the Ukrainians).

Now, besides this huge problem, the gains are: If an Ukrainian checks a NKVD posing as an Ukrainian, he contacts him and both get killed after the Ukrainian claims to be NKVD as well. But what if the Ukrainian doesn't contact him in that manner? What if he starts PMing him ordinarily to find out what role he might be? Or analyse posts? And if he's not convinced that he's not rebel, he might just hit someone else and avoid him? Furthermore, trading 1-to-1 townies to Ukrainians isn't a good idea. Ukrainians most likely have a huge KP in this game. Trading 1-1 is most likely not going to be enough unless they kill enough of their own.

But then again the Ukrainians couldn't properly form circles..... Sigh, which of these is better depends on who the Ukrainians are and their playing style and personality, pretty much. I don't think I can pick the plan that is better at this moment.



Dont any one get it? We cant form any ring or whatever in any case.

If a NKVD gets dt by anyone is MUCH MORE PROBABLE that he was DTed from an ukranian. Then NKVD posing as any they want cant trust any who pmed them about their cover. THats why we dont gain any posibility for NKVD to make a ring if they look like vets or any blue role. The advantage you describe is not such.

Then, if the NKVD possing as Ukranian is not contacted, then he will live more and get all of his DTs into a good use.

So the only advantege of get them as vets (to be able to form rings) isnt real. I say it again. They MUST go as ukranians. If you are a NKVD and dont believe me, then go as vet, is better than other things... but you are wasting a nice oportunity (and fun like shit).



And, about the maths, i made an automaton program, is not based upon random things, is based in individual decisions of each virtual player. But, that i made it just for myself. Dont despite good math analisys, like in poker it could give us an edge.


I would lynch ace cuz he is dividing the town... but i am voting for L, and really dont give a shit about first lynch.-

Are you admitting you're a dirty rebel or was that just a slip? lol


This is a good observation.

When I was reading this it looked like the "we" meant the town, since town can't form circles because when a DT claims to any townie that he's a DT, it could have just been a rebel and hence town can't form circles since those DTs can't be trusted. So I think it wasn't a slip-up, you just read it wrong.



of course i meant that....
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
July 31 2009 23:12 GMT
#535
On August 01 2009 06:00 Chezinu wrote:
Did anyone else hear about an American spy who was running down the streets yelling that a top secret bomb was going to be dropped on our town? He called the bomb...what was it? Bcraftstar2..or something like that. I think the spy's name was vradovic? Hopefully he was just trying to intimidate us into surrendering. I wouldn't want the half the town dieing because of this.


dadadadada i got a letter from my wife in the north, she told me something about a deadline an a public execution! I hate to be in the front right now...
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
August 01 2009 17:43 GMT
#585
wow, so much to read...



Ok, its day, who will be lynched today?

Clazziquai based in Ace's informer?
If some NKVD has valid information there is no point on sending that to someone without rolechecking first. And Ace cant be checked. The two optios I think of: NKVD is not so smart; or Ace is the mystery informant.
Why not to lynch the informant? because if his information is good we could reserve RCs and use them as game progresses.


kuja and rebirth based in scara information
this is really weird... i am not sure about this, is too sudden. I say this needs a sort of verification, and one lynch is always a way to do that.



by now i am not sure SO i will abstain.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
August 02 2009 01:11 GMT
#666
Ace, suck me.... your organization sucks. I am so tired of your "i am better than ypu" shit. I will lynch you at first oportunity.



FUCK YOU
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
August 02 2009 01:14 GMT
#667
On August 02 2009 06:14 Ace wrote:
I think RebirthofLegend should be our next suspect. Anyone questioning my motives at this point is obviously scum.



You are obiusly scum.




On August 02 2009 06:21 Ace wrote:
Well that would be a valid concern if I was scum, but since I'm not I have 0 care for their well being. Hell Lucas could be a DT too and I'd still have 0 use for him. After this Kuja rape fest is over, it's between him, ~Opz~, and that Chilean coffee bean clown for the next lynch.



suck it.

I trust L. Ace is doing nothing just dividing the town.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
August 02 2009 18:03 GMT
#715
EMPTY POST

+ Show Spoiler +
i need a marker to know where i should start reading.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
August 03 2009 01:10 GMT
#795
On August 03 2009 10:07 motbob wrote:
This game is incredibly confusing to follow as an uninformed townie, but I'll bet Caller is having a lot of fun right now. Can't wait until roles are revealed.



ahahaha best post during day 2
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
August 03 2009 01:14 GMT
#800
at last!
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
August 04 2009 01:04 GMT
#860
On August 04 2009 07:44 Ace wrote:
also I HIGHLY doubt 20 people have roleclaimed to you. There is nothing to be afraid of in releasing those names. They can't rally around the people you name because a.)everyone is going to PM them false claiming and b.)they aren't even confirmed Mafia.

Release the names now and stop wasting time.


To ver:

No, dont release the list, send it to a couple of people that you are sure they are not mafia. Realising a list of roles is to give away the advantage that mafia dont know each other.

I didnt get a PM, i supose you have a call for me, keep it, i wont send you my role, i alredy wrote it in the thread.

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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
August 04 2009 05:28 GMT
#897
On August 04 2009 13:48 Ace wrote:
Yea I'm going to personally kill Ver tonight.



I have to ask... why you want to kill Ver?

If we suppose that he is scum, but not even one red role died last night then his list is a piece of shit and we still have kuja out there...

If we lynch him he should post everything before the night post if he is green or red, so that could be a reason, but i still think is not a good idea that he puts his info (if any) in the thread.

If he is scum and we lynch him we gain nothing.
If he is scum and we dont lynch him he still has no good targets.

I dont know, just makes more sense to me if we kill kuja.






Another thing: last night at least 12 people did things.

During night NKVD could detect.
Scum could detect or kill.
medics could block.


From this list we know at leas 3 scum killed last night, 1 medic blocked.
If all NKVD detected that leave like 4 scum detecting aswell...

I think we have 3 medics, 3 NKVD (one or two could have saved a RC for later) and 6 or 7 mafia left (-1 of zato-1 autokill, we dont know if he acted before)

Why 4 mafia would detect on night 2?
I think on not so many options. Maybe some of them detected each other on night 1, but 4 of them is just many. Some of them could have detected a vet on night 1 aswell. I doubt on an overkill to any, simply because in the death descriptions there weren any signs of that.

And we should notice something that anyone has mentioned this far. The killings are direct hits from one scum to another player, so... should we assume that any clue on that killing is linked to one single scum? (thats an open question)
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
August 04 2009 05:53 GMT
#909
On August 04 2009 14:50 Elemenope wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 04 2009 14:49 Scaramanga wrote:
On August 04 2009 14:46 Elemenope wrote:
On August 04 2009 14:45 Scaramanga wrote:
On August 04 2009 14:23 Elemenope wrote:
On August 04 2009 14:22 Scaramanga wrote:
Ver isnt scum i know for a fact noobies



Is this a roleclaim I see?

No but from where i am its pretty fucking obvious that ver isn't scum



So where's the benefit from him not releasing us the mafia's name and asking us to "trust him" and R/C to him on the basis of rehashed information?

So in a game where the mafia dosent know each other you dont see how its benefical not to post the mafia's names?
your worse than ace




Because obviously the only people who will come into contact with those mafia

are the other mafia. Obviously.



Dont you get it? If they know who they are they dont need to get in touch, just need to avoid killing each other. We cant kill at the same rate and we cant confirm the information at the same rate either.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
August 04 2009 09:25 GMT
#964

We lynch Kuja today. We need info. Stop trolling the thread.

Caller, I want to know a few things, if a medic covers someone and get hit, how you decide the order? on first PM? And if 2 mafia share a target?


And for the town, what about the clues? any idea?
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
August 04 2009 09:27 GMT
#965
And the op post doesnt have a link to day 3
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
August 04 2009 16:54 GMT
#977
Elemenope you said nothing new. Scaramanga is the only one who blind trust Ver, I dont want to lynch him now because we gain nothing. Or he is green/red or no one with a role trust him, so your rage is just a waste.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
August 04 2009 16:57 GMT
#980
Who?
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
August 04 2009 17:07 GMT
#982
So you are telling us nothing new...
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
August 04 2009 17:11 GMT
#984
but I am not dividing the town.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
August 04 2009 17:24 GMT
#986
Is good to read something else than "*** is scum, for sure" from you, but relax, if Ver is mafia he is at least incompetent.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-08-04 19:34:25
August 04 2009 19:22 GMT
#990
From day 1 and day 3 we have a tank buster


The .55in round from antitank rifle leads to an only weapon (i searched for 55mm but there is no antitank rifle with 55mm rounds, just one with .55in)


The weapon is this one:

The Rifle, Anti-Tank, .55in, Boys commonly known as the "Boys (or, often and incorrectly,"Boyes") Anti-tank Rifle" was a British anti-tank rifle


After a quick search i found that you could find those rifles here:
* British Army
* Australian Forces - Nicknamed "Charlie the bastard"
* Republic of Ireland Army
* Canadian Forces
* New Zealand Army
* China
* United States Marine Corps - nicknamed the "Elephant Gun", for its weight and recoil
* Finnish Army - as 14 mm pst kiv/37, during the Winter War and the Continuation War.
* Rifles captured after the evacuation of the British Expeditionary Forces in Norway and France were given the name Panzerbüchse Boyes in German service.


But most likely in here
* British Army
* Finnish Army - as 14 mm pst kiv/37, during the Winter War and the Continuation War.
* Republic of Ireland Army
I got to these three places after reading some history on the rifle.


So, i think JeeJee is wrong and i still suspect shikyo, he is finnish.

Other guy that could be linked to that rifle is barth, he is from Ireland.

EDIT some fixes... but the same.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
August 04 2009 19:33 GMT
#992
shit my keyboard... gonna edit and fix some things...
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
August 04 2009 19:39 GMT
#994
we dont know, but we dont care for now. Tomorrow we should.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
August 05 2009 02:01 GMT
#1012
On August 05 2009 10:08 Zato-1 wrote:
This thread is so quiet without me


shut up you zombie-mafia
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-08-06 13:37:17
August 06 2009 13:36 GMT
#1070
So shikyo is the tankbuster with the .55 inch rounds... didnt i told you that before?
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
August 07 2009 08:03 GMT
#1125
wow...
i didnt expect this activity... gonna read all when i wake up....
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
August 07 2009 20:17 GMT
#1136
On August 08 2009 02:25 Railxp wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 07 2009 22:47 Fishball wrote:

Woot. Finally made someones list
Whether I am a Rebel or not, the answer is relatively obvious (at least for me, duh).



same here =p



Is this the first post of Railxp on the thread?


From that list I would look very close to softer.

I also want to know, many of you said before that fishball tends to die early... is that role dependant?

And finally, decaf voted for me without any reson, so my votes are decaf and Railxp.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
August 08 2009 18:30 GMT
#1153
vote for people who has voted.

Inactives are goin to to mod die anyway.
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coltrane
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Chile988 Posts
August 16 2009 23:14 GMT
#1229
who killed me?

I told yoou since day 1, dont trust ace.
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