EPT[GG] Mafia XII - The Summer Season
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BloodyC0bbler
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BloodyC0bbler
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I AM RUNNING FOR OFFICE I am already seeing idiocy of players that has led to many vets getting insanely discouraged with playing these games. I appreciate Plexa for trying to make this game interesting with the addition of different roles, tweaking how some work, and the addition of fog. Now lets outline why I should be in office. Weather I'm already seeing debate on weather, and You guys are saying opt for rain? We have two medics, each have an extra life, and they can protect people. Historically medics have sucked more than any other role in the game, IE don't depend on them early game, how hard is this to understand, MEDICS DO NOT WIN GAMES. This instantly gets rid of the damn rain option. Next we have sunny which allows our assassins to attack. If you guys vote for this I will kill you. EVEN IF they hit a mafia, which we all jump and joy in, there is a chance they hit the godfather, and guess what, this means the godfather role gets given to another mafia and we have to find the damn guy again, way to much effort, so sunny isn't an option we want, also vigi roles aren't always reliable, lynches are where we have to win, so SUNNY is out. Next we have snow, snow is useful for hey additional clues. Guess what, most of the top clue analyzers from all previous games aren't in this one, IE the amount of people benefiting from these clues is so damn small its not worth voting on, so we ignore snow. This leaves fog, ie WE SPAM FOG. All greens should be voting fog every day to keep it going. It removes the pledges kp from the mafia. So if there would be at least 1 possibly as high as 3 or 4 pledges. This will reduce a KP from the mafia meaning 1-2 less people die at night. THAT IS A GUARENTEE. Medics are not guarenteed to protect so this is a safer bet. So we spam fog until the pledges are all dead, then move on to a different weather. Also note, with fog reducing the mafia KP, the suicide bomber will be less likely to use his ability as it removes even more kp from them. Leadership In most games I have played, I have worked in some way in town circles working for the benefit of the town, many times leading to a win for the town. This gives me the experience to help lead the town and help keep it organized. The towns in the last few games have been reduced to very small voices screaming at a mass of chaos and leads to failure, it has to stop. I would make an excellent choice for the leadership purely based off my experience at keeping some form of order. Untop of that, for once I am one of a very few in terms of a specific skill. I, as ive said in other games, clue analyze. Out of the current player base of this game, Myself and Pyrr are most likely most known for spending time on clues (there may be one or two people from pyrr's game , but i didnt pay much attention to it). This means either him or myself should have the bg protection purely to keep us alive to use that skill. I will do my best to keep us alive. Double Lynch I will make sure we get these used on top mafia targets, IE if we have two insanely guilty looking people, double lynch will be used. We wont have to worry about constantly voting for double lynch one day, then worrying mafia stop it. IT WILL GET USED and by god it will get by the town. These are merely a few points, but seriously with the debate of what to vote on for weather, A strong player is needed as the emperor or we are all fucked. Vote for me but more importantly VOTE FOR FOG | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
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On July 03 2009 05:00 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: DECISION CALCULUS: More clues don't necessarily help - they often cause people to become suspicious in ways that the clue writer hadn't predicted at all. 5 KP is a ton so I think we should work on lessening that unless we figure out Plexa's clue writing style (has he run a game before? If so, definitely post about his writing style if you were in it). I would guess there are 2-6 pledges, so that would mean fog would drop KP by 0-1... OK, I think that means there have to be at least 4 Pledges because otherwise Fog wouldn't even lower KP on Day 1. So here's the math: Fog: KP is 4 with a 2/38 chance of blocking another hit. Rain: KP is 5 with a 4/38 chance of blocking a hit. Obviously the chance is much higher than random if the medic is skilled and a list is used well. I would go with Fog unless we are sure we want to vote check and Rain if we do want to vote check. Medics are almost always shit. Especially early game when they have no idea whos important to check, Vote for fog Fog is a guarenteed chance of dropping mafia kp by at least 1 if not 2, while rain lets mafia still get 5 hits, and we have a low chance of actually protecting that 1-2 hits they would lose with fog. IE till we lynch a few reds, fog should be kept in use to stop pledges (it also lets us know how many pledges there are roughly). It also means suicide bomber less likely to act to drop their kp even lower. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
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Otherwise the KP of 5 is way to high for day 1. 38 players - 8 red = 30/5= 6 days needed to kill us (provided no lynches used) If we lynch townies incorrectly it drops even lower. So fog should drop the KP of the mafia by 1 or possibly 2 to even it out. It also gives us an idea of how many pledges in the game there are. As for your equation all mafia give .5 cept for gf. so mafia looks to have a starting KP of 4.5 rounded up. so math should be as followed. say 2 pledges total 3.5 - (.5 x 2/2) =3 then 3 + 1(gf kp) mafia has 4 kp. the only way their KP isnt lowered is if there is exactly 1 pledge. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
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DT's Last thread Plexa made it clear in the last thread that a player if checked by a DT flip their original colour (ie emperor flips as whatever his role was before election, dt flips as dt, mafia flips as mafia) only exception being the godfather. Checks can also be used at any point in the day. So, by that meaning. Dts should automatically be checking Myself, ie BloodyC0bbler and mrbabyhands If we flip as town, immediately contact us. ALSO there are two you. so there is the risk that you double check on one of us but still that pays off as we get 2 dts immediately working together. THEY can act right now, IE before the mafia can act. So check me first, get me into office and we go from there. The power of dts in this game is absolutely insane, as only one role is fliped incorrectly. They also can act day 1. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
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On July 03 2009 08:27 Plexa wrote: Just to clarify here BC, the check will only tell you whether the person is mafia or not. Will not say that the person is a DT or that the person is the suicide bomber. My bad. Will it tell you if a suicide bomber is red though? Ie dt checks bomber, bomber gets a yes to being mafia? If not edit your bomber role to state that. Still, it stands to let you know if whoever you check is legit or not. The sooner a dt checks the sooner an alliance can form, the chances of hitting the gf this early are way to low, and as the roles were just recently sent out, mafia will still be disorganized, one dt should be checking me instantly. | ||
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If I'm not checked in the instant near future, random check either me, pyrr or mbh. As we will be top 3 for him to use his ability on. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
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Man, a vote list check is useless unless we get town to JUST vote on two lists and break it up that way which requires insane organization to just pin a few pledges, just kill their KP instead | ||
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On July 03 2009 14:16 Foolishness wrote: Which is exactly my point. JeeJee ran under the premise he was experienced, and he was one of the main reasons the town lost. See I've competently lead(along with sog) a town to victory in a elected position, and we manhandled the mafia. Also note, Jeejee isnt amazing, hes played but not super experienced. I also have a valid start to how to do this game as opposed to argue weather conditions, WHICH WE ARE STILL DOING. FFS vote fog and lets get the elections voting going. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
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On July 03 2009 16:10 Foolishness wrote: That is by far the most useless post in this topic, and that's quite a feat considering there's already a bunch of other useless posts. And hey a bunch of useless posts by you. Heres some tips for you. Stop just insulting people and post something useful towards the town, like possible avenues for the town to win, or to deal with mafia, etc... we have three people running for office, of those three two have provided some form of platform, So concentrate on voting for two people. This creates as L said, vote lists to check later. | ||
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On July 03 2009 16:28 Ace wrote: God I hate it when BC tries to stop the chaos and trolling :/  I like to win which requires no trolling rawr. | ||
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On July 03 2009 16:29 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: posting to confirm i got my role pm. yeah fog is far and away the best option for day 1. Depending on how the clues look, I can see snow working for day 2. The important thing about being able to list check is it gives us more information to pick from for our double lynches. I don't want to be working largely off clues/behavior if the oppurtunity for list checking exists. e: spelling List check only works in ideal conditions like A) town being smart and breaking off into vote lists on top suspects and checking them seperately B) Dt's being competent and then knowing who to supply info with C) taking an enormous amount of time to pin pledges. For now, reducing their kp is a higher priority. After day 1 if we don't fog, we should move into rain. But depends on how many pledges there are, and if we succesfully first lynch one. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
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Snow is only useful to the few players in this game who can clue analyze, so As much as i would love fog, it is just not reasonable to use unless his clues are insanely simple | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
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Mystic can use his ability right away (of if this changes to night still doesnt matter). The GF can alter what a person flips the following day IE GF sends in his hit list tonight and says player X will be seen as red for a dt check. Player X is seen as red following morning into night. THIS MEANS Two dts, check myself and MBH or Myself and L NOW At this point the reveal rate is almost 100% so lets abuse it please. EDIT: If whoever you check does not flip mafia, instantly tell them Chances of hitting the GF are low, and we need dts working with a voice asap. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
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On July 04 2009 01:06 redtooth wrote: I am not trolling you when I say we should vote Sunny. Also, we need clarification on the mystic vs Godfather debate. If the Godfather's power takes effect instantly (and prior to mystic using his power) then checking out BC might cause more headaches than benefits because: - BC might be Townie and flip green - BC might be Godfather and flip green - BC might be Mafia and Godfather might use Cover on him so he flips green - BC might be Townie and Godfather's Cover might cause him to flip red - BC might be Mafia and just flip red and he might try to argue the above I doubt he will actually flip red. However, even if he does flip green there are enough scenarios for us to not trust him fully. Remember - town circles should only form and people should only tell someone their role only if there is a 100% chance they are innocent. I feel like BC is playing like his normal self (bossy, assertive, logically sound) but I am scared to fully trust him from the get go. ~21% of the players were chosen to be mafia so it is possible that either him or MBH were chosen to be mafia. That should lead the town to be suspicious from the get-go. However, BC is the best candidate for emperor by leaps and bounds. I'm sort of torn but I will go ahead and support his candidacy. Also, WE SHOULD VOTE SUNNY. The GF's power does not act instantly, if you read how the mechanic works he sends who he wants to use it on with the mafia hitlist. The following morning it takes effect. SO till day 2, we have a window for the mystics to use their checks. Which means only one player in this game will come up incorrectly to the check. One mystic checks me, one checks L or mbh. very low chance on any of us being the gf, and impossible for all 3 to be gf, ie if both people checked come back as no to the "are they mafia" then guarenteed one, if not both are safe. | ||
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On July 04 2009 03:29 So no fek wrote: Only problem there is that the mystics could potentially check the same person. Just have to be left up to luck, I guess, in who they decide to check. True, but we can hope we get lucky and one person checks L one me (due to us being people running for office). The only mafia who can run for it without being caught by check is the GF, hense if they fielded anyone for the position, it should be him. Overall we need our dts to be active, and hopefully reading the thread to know who to check. | ||
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Fog will give us a general idea of how many pledges we are dealing with, as well as killing half of the pledge KP. If we opt for rain later, that is useful. But honestly if a town is unable to win a game of mafia without votechecking, we are screwed. The pure reason for not wanting to bother much with it is based purely on previous games where with votecheck town gets reds way to easily and barely win or dominate (and spoils the fun) and without it mafia just dominates. Here we have a chance for players to learn how to play the game and if we need the votecheck use it, but you advocate on it way to much would would lead me to think you plan on depending on it, but that gives you pledges, while the gf and reg mafia run free. Clue/behavioural analysis are insanely effective if the town stays unified, which is what we must do fast. If mafia disrupts the leadership of the town we are gone. As it stands now, the chances of heavon, myself or L being gf are not guarenteed. We have spent alot of time arguing weather, and almost no one is active/voting yet which means they really don't have to jump out and play seriously as we are already in semi chaos, mafia can easily just fan that chaos and mislead our lynches. Overall, in terms of experience L and I have the most from running, and from general platforms he and I would do things most likely very similarly. Hense either one of us makes a more reasonable choice. I would urge the town to ignore heavon on the base of "i ran before i had my role" as he never gave a solid campaign, he was around yesterday and didn't provide a campaign, and is just now bothering with it. He also mentions the rolechecking of him where it would be easy to find out his role, yet his chances of rolling the gf are just as high as mine or L's do not get confused by this. L, myself and Heavon all have the same chances of being the GF, its also not true that him in office is playing it safe. He hasn't given a serious idea of what to do other than "hey i ran early with no platform and have the same chance of being GF, vs Two people who are trying to create a form of order, have experience in leadership or town circles as heads. as for town circles, I do not mean last game as I was traitor last game and my object was to do exactly as he mentioned. In this case, there is no traitor role, and if you read up any previous game i played and compare to last game, you would realize im town. NOW, Due to his wanting to rely on votechecks, lack of experience not wanting to rolecheck me or L (lwut?) and asking for pure trust based on no campaign platform before his role (or before other candidates) leads me to believe that he wants the position purely from what his role is. Most pre role campaigners have a platform they run off, this was not the case. His lack of campaigning quickly leads me to believe he is either dt/priest or mafia/gf. He is not safe, do not vote for him. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
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YOU opted to wait, making a delayed real entry till after two other campaigns were started and other than your campaign post and this one you just made, have made no real contribution other than "hey i agree with those guys, just dont vote for them". Your role plays as much a part of you as anyone else at this point in terms of election, and don't think differently. Every other game with campaigns before roles have led to real campaigns and planning and how people would do things, you offered nothing. | ||
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THIS game has not changed enough from signup thread to this thread to warrant you not having a pre game platform for running almost as soon as joined the game. So no, you should have had a early game platform. As for copied no, but you should provide something different or new, other then "RELY ON VOTECHECKS" Seriously man, come up with some new campaign other than saying your the safe choice | ||
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On July 04 2009 16:11 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: huh well this is kind of lame. I just read everything and there isn't much to comment on. The only semi decent clue link was pyrr like 4 posts up about BC/Chaoser and food/rekrul. But those both suck ass anyway. Heavon dropped out so it looks like our two main candidates are BC and L. But yeah, I am going to wait until I see a voting time frame before casting mine, L's insanity could be hard to read in office and BC's experience could be annoying to determine alignment so by the end of this I might just be coin tossing. I figure this game I might as well practice some clue analysis though so after day two I will probably start posting some stuff that hopefully doesn't suck. bolding the important part. For voters, do you want someone whos experienced and NOT insane, or someone whos unpredictable, and insanely hard to read (also the same guy who protected a confirmed mafia while medic last game). It comes down to that for who you should vote for. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
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The dt's if they check one of us, must either take the chance on us, or wait till later. It all determines on how the dts should act. | ||
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On the assumption that both L and I haven't been checked and that neither of us was double checked, I would say check one of the early bandwagoners would be a good bet to check, I would however check one of the people who have voted with no justification if they have not been active in this thread. Edit: heading to work, be back this evening | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
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So if i get elected, I will make a list of people, and randomize which of them dies. Also note, MBH is one of the few people whos orientation becomes apparent usually fairly quickly. So he would not be day 1 auto lynch (if hes green or blue town gets fucked hard). So by day 2-3 town would easily have his orientation pegged. | ||
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On July 05 2009 10:56 Chezinu wrote: *scrolls through pages looking for MrBabyHand's posts* (only found 2 the confirmation that he got his role and the one above where he is running for emperor- unless I missed one) How has MBH orientation become apparent? I'm so lost.. read his behaviour in previous games and you will understand how you can identify him | ||
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Ecomania Elemenope Kuja Scamp If elected, i will be random # generating from this list. Ydg as he tends to go inactive for alot of a game in most games (sorry bud but inactives kill the game) Elemenope seems shifty to me based on a question he asked previously in the thread, ecomania, kuja and scamp due to general inactivity | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
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If im elected the list provided above, will be a list i will push to have people lynched off of tommorrow (subject to change from clues). Instead for autolynch, it will be done differently. A top player (ie well known vet) will be killed instead. There is a reason for this. If the player is red, we off one of the mafia's top players instantly. IF he is blue/green, the priest will instantly start to resurrect the player. This will give us a confirmed townie, and 2 days later he will respawn. Now, this is a gamble, however, I believe it be worth the risk, as well you all are hesitant to trust either myself or L, this will provide an option for the town to instead trust a mayoral official based on a good lynch or b) a safe person to entrust your role to via their resurrection. I still advocate voting fog first night. | ||
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On July 05 2009 23:47 Bockit wrote: Ok so the priest should be reviving MBH right about now. And imagine how hilarious it would have been if MBH was the priest! I would have shat myself, and then town would really have been boned. Now, here's how I'm seeing things. With fog in we should have knocked off at least 1 KP from mafia tonight. and as we can't check the voting list for today (i could be mistaken but i think plexa said we couldn't), we are going to have to base our lynch tommorrow on clue/behavioural analysis. For primary targets, I would recommend looking at YDG - He sat back doing nothing until I posted I might kill him, then almost instantly there was a post up defending himself. This shows he was actively reading the thread and not participating. If he vanishes again he is almost deff red. Ecomania - inactive but voted very early on for L, seems insanely suspicious. Araav - posted once, inactive since (common mafia trick, be helpful once and vanish). Priest, start reviving MBH if you haven't already | ||
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On July 06 2009 01:07 Elemenope wrote: Ah, apparently this plan happened while I was sleeping -.- I'm on lunch break right now so this post will be short, but although I agree with the general premise of the plan. I don't agree on who was lynched. If we make the standard assumption that mafia is running for office, and we go further with that by saying a GF is running for office since rolechecks can happen now for the mayor candidate: Why not lynch L instead of MBH? Although, in my opinion, MBH would seem like a bigger threat if he were mafia, you said yourself; With this plan, although good in theory, it seems wasted on MBH as all we're getting is extra insurance of MBH's alignment, but now we're risking losing the priest's power completely. We also lose MBH's ideas/analysis of people for the next 2 or 3 days or whatever, and we may lose them completely if the priest is found; and if angels can find the priest, then I'm sure mafia can figure it out, too; but then again, Aren't we kind of doing that now? And if our medics are as incompetent as TL history shows, then the priest might not even have protection at all. Although I realize the quote was trying to advise fog over rain, the thoughts and premise behind it also apply here since we're going to most likely have to use rain because of the suicide bomber. Yeah, mafia might lose a KP because of that, but does it really matter? It gets rid of a major power role of a network of confirmed innocents and the priest basically reduces mafia KP by .33 anyway as long as his ability is used every moment. Now we have to wait til Day 4(?) for us to make use of MBH. I just feel that if we lynched L, we would've gained a lot more information in comparison to MBH who we find out is innocent (which is a plus), but we would've found that out anyway tomorrow or the next day. The entire plan is lost on you then. L is not as useful as MBH, period. If for instance L and MBH are both town, MBH is a better person to lead the town upon revival as he is known to be a solid player, can snipe mafia insanely quickly, etc... L does not share those qualities, he is intelligent, he can plan, but his ability to catch mafia isn't as high. Next, on the offchance that MBH had been red, we stopped the mafia from bluesniping night 1, which is also a huge advantage. Now, you mention how you don't like that we don't benefit from his insight now. BUT he ran for emperor at the ever last second, asking for the role so he had BG protection, now he has a few days of analysis to do without risk of being hit in mid process. IE it works to his advantage as well. All we need to do is keep the priest alive. If he lives the 3 days his power is in use, it gets transferred on to another green user. So no we don't lose the power. | ||
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On July 06 2009 02:13 L wrote: Ignoring the fact that I was far more likely to be the godfather because I ran in the election is somewhat silly, unless you already know who the godfather is. Truth be told, I was going to kill you if I got elected in along the exact same lines of reasoning that lmnop gave. Except the reasoning is faulty. Using an autolynch instantly on your running mate gives you pretty well dick all if they are green. Besides, this plan ensures that when mbh revives, neither you or I lead the town. This plan works for the towns best interest, just requires us not crashing this ship before hes back in the game. | ||
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On July 06 2009 02:18 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: @BC: That is true. It seemed to me there were more abstainers this election than usual. The thing is I thought it was pretty obvious MBH was innocent after his election bid. Literally nobody voted for him. Whenever a mafia candidate runs, they always get votes. Every time. --- The big problem with this is our medics have to now focus on protecting the priest, which leaves other players open to get fucked and die. Actually, they don't HAVE to, but people are posting as if it's the only option. This pretty much forces us into voting Rain for Night 2, because if we vote Fog we run the risk of mafia figuring out who the priest is and bombing him, taking out the medics in the process. So even though Fog is sort like a pseudo-medic, we are forced into voting Rain, which lets the mafia use their kp to its maximum extent. edited some formatting True, but as soon as mbh is up we want to vote rain anyway (gives medics able to stack heal on him if need be to keep him alive, as well as prevent him from being bombed). Yes this is a gamble, but if it works town will be ahead by insane amounts that we are going to look peachy. Also, bomber will most likely be saved to kill mbh as that will be the only way to kill him later on if they get lucky. Priest just has to live through two nights. Which is doable. | ||
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Mr Julia + Show Spoiler + There was one matter left to attend to – the destruction of the secret Liquiville Cheese recipe. The task was left to Mr Julia, a newcomer to the Mafia but nonetheless determined to carry out his orders. Mr Julia had a nack for working out combinations and he had cracked the safe within seconds. He wasted no time in burning the recipe with his lighter. “What are you doing!!” cried fishball, startling Mr Julia and causing him to accidentally burn himself on the recipe. fishball watched in horror and amazement as Mr Julia’s burn wound began to change colour and pulsate. “Look what you’ve done!” exclaimed Mr Julia who came lunging at fishball. fishball fended Mr Julia’s first few blows off, but each blow became more erratic and powerful. It wasn’t long until Mr Julia landed a punch square on fishball’s jaw, knocking him to the ground. Mr Julia pounced on fishball and eventually turned fishball into a bloody pulp. Even though fishball was dead, Mr Julia could not stop and eventually, after his body began to pulsate, he passed out. vx70GTOJudgexv fits this profile the best, on multiple counts. His profile for reference can be found http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=vx70GTOJudgexv Now, the mention of easily breaking into a locked room. He has a loose connection with "entusman and a profile full of stats (numbers)" suggests he is good with numbers, and with entusman you could loosely translate it to "enterman" plus numbers would be easy for him. For a colour changing hand and pulsating, he has multiple names in his profile, with different colours for each his own name listed as blue. This could indicate that he changed to that colour. and lastly for the savage beating. He has the words "GO BERSERKER!!!!" in his profile quote. He attacked fishball in an uncontrollable rage till he was beaten to nothing more than a pulp. Berserkers can rarely control their rage, so this fits him insanely well. "3 fuzzy shapes leaving with some kind of psychedelic object draped over one of their backs" would also indicate judge as well based on the different names in his profile (if he was constantly changing colour he could be percieved that way" All of this could also link to bockit. his profile found http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=Bockit His user icon in his profile is trippy, especially if you saw it through a haze. breaking into a locked room would be easy based off his "Oh sorry I forgot you can't read binary." Stress on binary, would would be code, ie hack. This could link to that. His colour changing could mean because he is staff and his name is blue, it changed colour when he was burned, As for the brutal murder, he has various quotes in his profile relating to forms of murder or injury. | ||
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That one line seems to indicate Araav based on his quote "The flower that blooms in adversity is the most rare and beautiful of all" He sprinked flower seeds into the cheese, ie if a flower could grow on cheese it would be blooming in an environment it shouldnt be able to ie adversity. The strapping a bomb to the victims chest could indicate that he is the suicide bomber. | ||
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This is day 2 clues, unless i hit people on red herrings i can guarentee that I wont get any of them right knowingly. I need at least 3-4 days worth of clues to do it accurately. That being said, the accusations have gotten people posting who were otherwise inactive =) | ||
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Sunny - Do not vote for, no decent targets to let assassins loose on, not worth the effort. Snow - Is the potential of their getting an extra KP warrent us wanting more clues. Fog- if we fail lynch, we have a for sure drop of KP again Rain - medics can double protect, bomber can't use his bomb. I personally believe that snow or fog are our best bets today. Reasoning for this. Rain although useful for its stopping of the bomber, I doubt mafia would be dumb enough to waste some of their KP when we have a plan to give a 100% confirmed role town leadership, bomb would be saved for him. Medics also seem to have a hard time protecting the right people. Now, Fog potentially drops KP again (although if we lynch one mafia i doubt this will be the case), and lastly snow Snow allows us to have lists for dt's to check, and give us extra clues for the following day. I recommend pushing fog for now, unless new information comes forward. | ||
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a tall lanky man, and a man who likes explosives. Araav is an acronym for Armored Reconnaissance Airborne Assault Vehicle, if they are together one other day, i would suggest that they are a pair as araav needs a pilot to move around and would explain the facination with explosives, the insane damage on vivi, and the seeds solid link him to day 2 | ||
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On July 06 2009 13:13 L wrote: Name some. The only other solid link to a gun is Scaramanga. isnt gay man lucas have a gun mentioned in his profile? | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7876 Posts
So, we come down to the last bit of game. I have opted for a different approach this game than normal. The town leadership although “won” by me will be directly placed on MBH when he revives, why you ask? Because he is confimed townie. As such I have gone out of my way to get reactions out of players, and observe how they react/were acting before said post. YDG is the most prominent of these people. Now we will analyze why On July 03 2009 03:03 ydg wrote: Can we repeatedly vote for the same weather options? Like snow/snow/snow/snow/snow? And the weather takes effect the night and the next day, right, so if we voted for fog that means that tomorrow's vote checks wouldn't show pledges? Anyways I'm stuck between snow and rain. Day 1 clues are always weak because they're mostly red herrings so more clues would be nice, but with a KP of 5 and only 30 townies, mafia needs 5 days to win, so it might be a good idea to limit their KP until we can kill some mafia and lower it that way. On July 03 2009 03:18 ydg wrote: I wouldn't say that rain is useless, especially early game. Early game, mafia can either hit blindly, try to snipe, or take out people talking a lot. It's easier to block hits if they do the last two, which usually happens early game. Hitting blindly isn't going to help them that much. Regardless, I voted for snow. Oh and got my role. On July 03 2009 03:21 ydg wrote: Wait. "The option with the most votes will be announced during the lynching and the weather will change immediately." Vote for fog. I assume lynching for day 1 means the election, so we do fog during the election, since you can't even list check mayor voting lists, and we have them lose some hits for the night. And then tomorrow we change the fog to snow and they can list check. Unless there is no weather for tonight. Look at these time stamps people, within the span of 20ish minutes, he has argues snow/rain/fog. Saying he voted for snow, then asking people to vote fog. You wonder why is this an issue, well that’s a good point. See, common mafia tactic is to appear to be active, as this is, even appear to be helpful which it does, HOWEVER, by constant flipflopping and not enforcing one idealogy off sound reasoning, we instead have someone trying to create chaos and disruption. We move on. On July 03 2009 05:12 ydg wrote: Not necessarily, since Plexa could do clues where only a few mafia have clues linked to them each day. But I agree, until we know how clues are, if they're tidbits from the mafia's profile/whatever else and expressed through traits such as physical traits, tendency to use a weapon, or what not, or if the tidbits are just shown in the scene. Or if Plexa draws heavily on a theme or if he picks from this and that, we don't know yet. Wait a second He just advocated voting fog, now we are back to saying snow is useful for day 1, and tries to once again express this is a good idea. Constant try to keep conversation on a bad bad idea, he even ignores the fact that fog will lower KP, when 5 is insanely high for such a low player game. On July 03 2009 10:12 ydg wrote: I disagree with spamming fog, but I agree that fog should be used day one. List checking is one of the most effective tools, and, as pledges can only be found via list checks, if we spam fog, we will have no sure way of hitting pledge as opposed to hitting regular mafia. Here he doesn’t like the fog option repeatedly as he doesn’t believe we can hit pledges without list checks (fog has been deemed smartest choice overall by player base for day 1) Once again he wants us to let mafia have highest KP possible. On July 05 2009 15:18 ydg wrote:  I'd post more but it seems like there's not much to discuss now? Tbh I only go inactive when I'm mafia lol. I'd clue analyze but it's only day 1. I like to wait until at least day 2 to start looking at it. On July 05 2009 15:25 ydg wrote: Okay assuming Plexa is going with mafia have their own eccentricities and quirks and their own traits, here are a few weird things I found... So so far only two characters have been mentioned, "tall and lanky" and "Mr. Explosive." I THINK that the person who killed Plexa was another person, perhaps a stealthy person (like a ninja, why is there always a ninja). Also, the "strung up on lines like a human clothes line" is VERY strange, what a weird way to phrase an odd scene. And of course, the note. But, being day 1, I can't think much of these except a preliminary outline of how clues will be? He mentions how he doesn’t like to clue analyze day 1(very intelligent I will give) then proceeds to CLUE ANALYZE, only after I called him out, WHY would you start doing something you said you don’t like doing when that reason was acceptable, instead he tries his best to be on the side of the town, but hes trying to hard all too fast as the next message will show. On July 05 2009 15:39 ydg wrote: Btw, 8/8 Mafia alive. (Current killing power = 5) 1/1 Suicide Bomner alive. 1/1 Godfather alive. so, 6 non-Godfather, non-Bomber mafia. With fog... 6 pledges, 1 non, 1 god => 3/2+1/2+1=3 total hits 5/2/1=>5/4+1+1=13/4=3.25=4 total hits 4/3/1=>1+3/2+1=7/2=3.5=4 total hits 3/4/1=>3/4+2+1=15/4=3.75=4 total hits 2/5/1=>1/2+5/2+1=4 total hits 1/6/1=>1/4+3+1=4.25=5 total hits So not bad for reducing KP by 1. I guess we can always figure out a way to get pledges without the voting list check. [b] This bit of math has basically been covered at least once by this point, I will even quote it (check timestamps) On July 03 2009 08:06 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Pyrr that has to be at least 4 pledges 3 reg pledges + 1 for suicide bomber. (it says one pledge is a suicide bomber ie should count as a pledge). Otherwise the KP of 5 is way to high for day 1. 38 players - 8 red = 30/5= 6 days needed to kill us (provided no lynches used) If we lynch townies incorrectly it drops even lower. So fog should drop the KP of the mafia by 1 or possibly 2 to even it out. It also gives us an idea of how many pledges in the game there are. As for your equation all mafia give .5 cept for gf. so mafia looks to have a starting KP of 4.5 rounded up. so math should be as followed. say 2 pledges total 3.5 - (.5 x 2/2) =3 then 3 + 1(gf kp) mafia has 4 kp. the only way their KP isnt lowered is if there is exactly 1 pledge. So we have a rehashed equation in more depth that tells us basically what we already know (the detail is useless as the result is the same as I had already mentioned). He is rehashing old info, even making it look prettier to slide under the radar. On July 06 2009 02:37 ydg wrote: Actively reading the thread? More like coming in randomly to catch up, and seeing how there's nothing happening and so not saying anything. What, do you want me to say something stupid. like sup, every time I come to the thread? But it's okay, I understand your position, you don't have any legit suspects so you pick on people who you say will be inactive. And if you actually did any research into me, you'll realize that I almost always vote even if I don't post in the thread, and this is construed as inactive how? Whatever. Non-voters: L inertinept clasic kuja rebirth scamp Looking at the high number of abstains, I'd say it's unlikely that either of the two candidates are mafia. On July 06 2009 02:48 ydg wrote: Oh and what the hell do you mean I sat back doing nothing? Go back and read the thread maybe, like on page 1 or 2 maybe and, OH MY GOD I ACTUALLY POSTED QUITE A BIT in fact, I was the one who SUGGESTED we do fog first??? Whatever. Once we get mafia down to 4 kp (not due to weather), if the priest role claims publically and all angels protect the priest, and we vote rain every day, mafia will have no way of killing the priest. And, as the ability travels between people, we get more and more confirmed townies. And if mafia decides to role claim priest, the real priest should speak up, but I guess then there will have to be some trust in deciding who the real priest is. Two posts very close to eachother (time difference obvious in time to write the messages pretty well). Both are directly attributed to me calling him out. Then moving onto another list of people to look at (look they didn’t vote). Then, he wants us to concentrate on finding the priest is, ok that’s not to bad of an idea…..wait, he wants to keep using priests ability to get confirmed townies in the works… Does he not realize that’s useless. Unless we get perfect lynches going for awhile (or assassin hits) mafia can wipe us out in 6 days, we won’t have the time to swap the priest role for that list, as the game wont last that long. On July 06 2009 09:27 ydg wrote: The Mr. Julia thing may be a nod towards the pledge-ness of the mafioso member. Or it may be that Mr. Julia is an inept person who burned himself and then couldn't control his rage. he added very little information to a brief summary of a mafia member, again, appears to be more useful than he is actually being, subtle mafia trick. On July 06 2009 09:33 ydg wrote: side by side comparisons of the only two people we can pinpoint as the exact same from day 1. Aside from explosions and tall guy, anything else stand out? EDIT: "The two began setting the device" vs "As one sprinkled fox glove seeds all over the cheese, the tall lanky one kept vigilant in case security was alerted." so they both require some sort of preparation or some sort of planning. Might be insignificant. Makes mention to similarities of people that L had already made in his huge post on why to kill Truthbringer. Again he is rehashing information given in an attempt to be “active and useful”. But its not real use, its rehashing information. On July 06 2009 13:29 ydg wrote: @foxglove seeds, if you do a simple google search, you see that they are poisonous, which may either be a byproduct of the script or a key indication of the mafioso. But, unless Plexa is some sort of botanist or whatever that works with poisonous foxglove seeds (I've never heard of them before), how does he get foxglove seeds as a weapon o_O. Remember, Plexa goes (probably) from INFO->CLUE and so we need to see what links TO foxglove seeds and not what foxgloves seeds links to. How is Plexa going to go from "The flower that blooms in adversity is the most rare and beautiful of all" to foxglove? When someone shows me this connection, I'll vote Araav. But for now, it seems that the people who are adamantly trying to get him lynched are very suspicious. Also, clues tend to NOT be many things from a person's profile, but a few select details (from my experience, Plexa may be doing it differently) that are heavily emphasized. Thus the vx70GTOJudgexv is very weak, imo, because why would he be connected to so many different things? The main points of Mr Julia are probably the noobiness (ineptness->inertinept lol), this weird pulsating thing, and this rage, which, like I said before, may be because of the greenness of the character. All in all, I'd say L's analysis seems the most logical to me. Instantly dismisses Araav, who was a very good link (only person who really links to flowers in this case). The vx70GTOJudgexv clues are weak as he stated and meant to be such, his reaction was needed for behavioural analysis. However, YDG defends both Araav, and Judge almost as soon as he sees my analysis. But wait, he said he likes giving his own analysis way up above as of day 2, but he doesn’t provide any of his own, instead he says L’s is sound and logical. He still doesn’t contribute anything sound, but does give a link to inertinept that’s weak as hell. On July 06 2009 13:31 ydg wrote: Also, isn't it interesting how quick Pyrrh is to support BC's (weak) clue analysis, just as how quick he was to support his platform? and the attack finally begins. He attacks me personally based on someone supporting me instantly, although Pyrr disagrees with my analysis of judge seen On July 06 2009 13:15 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: On the entusman thing: entusman to enterman seems highly unlikely to me. Also, So No Fek has "entusman" in his profile, too. There are even more Entus fans, I'm sure. Also, with the Truthbringer thing. If L's analysis is correct, that's way too many clues for one Day post, especially without Snow in active. Could be that only one is intentional, but I can't imagine Plexa thinking that 5 separate links to the same guy in one post on Day 2 makes sense. I mean I did something like that, but it was a novice game and it was Day 5 or so. Still, more links increase the odds and that's a lot of links. Oh shit, that was before YDG’s attack. As well as pyrr supporting L, but wait, he can’t support us both? In closing people, we have someone who is seemingly being active, while not actively contributing anything useful, and just rehashing information given by other players, but by quoting larger posts, he can appear to be helping. Remember he A) advocated that people opt for snow (he said he voted for it) to begin with, then opted for fog after others were set on it after arguments by L myself and others. B) he stayed relatively useless, then as soon as he was called out, he makes a valid reason of why he was inactive that any player would normally accept, then goes and breaks that reason to post shoddy analysis, and then rehash more information already given C) He wants us to locate the priest. We don’t need to know the priest as the only job they have is hiding till their resurrect is done. And finding the priest out only helps mafia, it means we would have to go rain (giving mafia 5 KP) to stop the bomber, and then they stack kills and kill priest anyway or force meds elsewhere to take out other targets while sniping the priest before his powers swap. Untop of that he wants to use the priest over and over to get a group of confirmed townies when a game won’t last more than 2 full uses most likely. The logic is faulty and surprisingly people overlook it. D) rehashes more information, then as soon as specific people are targeted from analysis, one solid one not, he opts to defend both of them. WHY, judge already had a reason given by me to get a reaction, but YDG gave us even more, why defend someone with a weak connection that no one would lynch him on? To protect one of his own. He also defends Araav who has a good connection to him, and also someone who has been inactive a large chunk of the game. E) attacks me for having a supporter who is someone actually supporting multiple peoples analysis. These are all major things mafia do to sidetrack the town. YDG obviously wants you to suspect me, as killing me off would remove the double lynches from the town. He also wants top KP for mafia, and a priest found. If you need more information than this to kill him, we won’t last long at all. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7876 Posts
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7876 Posts
On July 07 2009 07:59 L wrote: There are a bunch of people who are about to outted by looking at voting patterns and thread activity. Lets examine the general course of conversation this game has taken. We started talking in general terms about weather. We then slid into a chat about what type of mafia one would send into the election. The answer was simple: the godfather. Elections went on, some odd voting happened, then we nearly completely dropped the topic. Why is this important? Because BC is acting incoherently in his role. BC will criticize ydg for 'flip flopping', but flip flops himself, posting: then essentially going "oh wait nevermind, i'm going to kill a power player instead" 40 minutes later. Regardless of the wisdom of the plan, BC can't be pointing out other people for changing their minds when he's been the biggest flip flopper in the game when it comes down to concrete life or death decisions. More importantly, check that list: Who's number 1 there? The person BC is trying to get the town to bandwagon right now. Okay, fair enough, he's had a grudge and has been searching for shit to pin on ydg despite not having ANY clue information to back his claims up. There's obviously more poor argumention from him, quite a bit of it stemming from kill MBH plan and a bit more coming from previous conversations. That alone isn't enough to pin someone as being mafia. Tricode last game was throwing up complete garbage posts, but he was just an idiot townie. What makes BC special is WHO his friends are and WHEN they support him. Next: Lets take a gander at the vote lists: BloodyC0bbler [13] TruthBringer Pyrrhuloxia HeavOnEarth ydg LucasWoJ Shikyo BWdero Falcynn Scaramanga Faronel StorZerg Foolishness Vivi57 L [10] So no fek iNfuNdiBuLuM Chezinu ecomania motbob GoodWill iLoveKT Malongo chaoser JeeJee Abstain [9] redtooth BloodyC0bbler Fishball Bockit Lenwe vx70GTOJudgexv araav Elemenope MrBabyHands The bolded member of the list are special because they correspond to typical voting periods for mafia members on a mafia candidate. Mafia will seed a list to get a bandwagon running, then let it grow a bit on its own, sprinkling a few extra votes in the middle, but holding most of their members back if they need to make a last minute push. The early voters? TruthBringer and Pyrr. TruthBringer has been silent and is by far our best clue link, and Pyrr defends BC fanatically, throwing a few red herrings at other players now and then. The two bolded votes further down correspond to the 11th and 12th votes for BC respectively, the votes needed to overcome the fact that I hadn't yet voted and assure the win for BC. Foolishness is posting useless comments and poor analysis all over the thread, adding to the 'chaos' that BC was talking about when referring to flip flopping. StorZerg Is nearly 100% silent. The italicized members are those that have been put under suspicion in the past few pages. That said, there are likely only 3-5 mafia on that list, with the other 3-5 being on me or abstaining. Since I'm in the unique position of knowing that mafia would only vote for me to camouflage themselves (unless they wanted to warp my mind and control my precious fog votes), This tells me that BC is far too likely to be mafia to be followed in bandwagons. Lets examine those people who have been following: Araav - 3 Storzerg Pyrrhuloxia So no fek YDG - 5 Foolishness vx70GTOJudgexv BloodyC0bbler iLoveKTF Falcynn Out of the 5 most likely mafia members, 3 of them are seeding bandwagon lists to deflect the pressure put on a fourth member: TruthBringer. Wake the fuck up. Don't take my word for granted either. Think this shit through yourself. Town is getting fucking RAPED right now. We aren't active and the mafia are actively putting up walls of shit posts to throw you off and make you too lazy to go back and find quality information. Ok, as your post is huge im shoving it in a spoiler to start. Now, to start. YDG has been on my list from the get go, I will admit, but hey lets look at what I've done first. a) Pushed day 1 fog issue while debates on weather were going on, It locked in the most useful selection for town b) Killed MBH - Now this can be viewed as a bad move except for the fact as it flipped his colour showing town, giving us the best tool town needs to win, which is a strong player who's confirmed town. c) given analysis - some good some bad, but its day 2, thats expected. Now, out of those 3, the first two are insanely town oriented, Mafia would never actually be the center of pushing those issues as it gives up its advantage of control. As for the last point, YDG analysis is overall solid, and any defense of him is just to get me out of the way. Now lets look at this post ive quoted above, and we see L has bolded (but not italisized) truthbringer, making it sound like the stuff was on him for ages more than the rest. I have put suspicion on YDG well before L's on truthbringer, although not as detailed still there, ie not in the last few pages. He purposely leaves out araav and judge as possible suspects although suspicion was drawn onto them as well. But instead he leaves them out. Show's that L doesn't like giving complete information to those he is trying to convince, but thats typical. He also includes the vote lists from the day before of people who voted for me, him and abstained. Wait a second, if I was mafia, why did I kill two people off my own list? Wait why am I targetting more people on said list. Mafia elects always have their team push them into office, by killing people off my own list I would only be giving away my team if I was red, L knows this as well, yet doesn't mention it. "Since I'm in the unique position of knowing that mafia would only vote for me to camouflage themselves (unless they wanted to warp my mind and control my precious fog votes), This tells me that BC is far too likely to be mafia to be followed in bandwagons. Lets examine those people who have been following: " How would he know he is in such a unique position? has the planets aligned and said "L IS OUR CHOSEN ONE" no, he is in the same position as I am, both of us giving things to the town to benefit it. However, the one biggest factor between myself and L has been in the idea of the Priest resurrection plan. Yes its a gambit, but if priest lives one more night, we get a leader who can snipe red easily. Double lynch will be used to be at his disposal immediately. But L instead said he would auto lynch me, his competition for an idea of how the "mafia" voted. However, if he did that and I flipped green as both he and I know i would, it would leave town in a position that they would have a leader who would kill his only opposition for leadership, as well as a list of people who are almost for sure innocent. Leaving him to be lynched by town and double lynches lost in the game, and no serious leadership. My analysis on judge was dismissed because it linked to far to many things to be likely by most of you, yet L's own analysis on truthbringer (much more solid I will admit) connects to many many many things in that kill, which if one very convinient link is dismissed, so should the other for similar reasons. As for him saying the town is getting raped? The mafia is clutching at straws period. They had 4 mishits (shikyo would not have known he was bg), which shows the mafia needs a powerplay to get ahead. Town will soon have a confirmed powerhouse up and able to beat the mafia, as such they need to get rid of people pushing town forward. Killing me would make sense for them to remove that voice, Now look at people who have risen to YDG's defense YDG himself L Infundibulum motbob when mafia are routinely caught, members will show up to defend them. Or bury the post in which they were accused. I however have defended myself. My actions this game have proven my intent to get a win for the town, that is the leadership you should be following. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7876 Posts
On July 07 2009 10:38 L wrote: I see you're throwing out falsities again. Lets go through this. I bolded truthbringer because he was the first vote for you. The bolded positions aren't based on players, they're based on timing. I specifically mentioned that and explained that the bold mentioned members of that list are in prime mafia voting areas; the start or to push someone over the top. You, by contrast claim that I bold him to make it seem like i have "ages" more on him than the rest. No, That's purely a position matter. The fact that Foolishness is spamming the thread (which you considered a mafia move), TruthBringer is silent (which you considered a good method of selecting a random target from early game prior to killing MBH), StorZerg is silent, etc shows that there's more than just position in play here. TruthBringer has clue analysis, behavior AND voting patterns which all predict he's mafia. Yet you go after someone you admit you've been trying to kill since day 1 for being quiet. The problem is that we have better information to go on, he isn't silent, and your reasons for targetting him can be applied to YOU as well. You can't explain away all of that, now can you? Next: I leave out araav? No I don't. He very well may be mafia too. You've already moved on from araav after ignoring my questions regarding how a tank quickly ties people up, and the veritable battery of 'what the fuck' from the town. In terms of your analysis, you know as well as I do that yours is absolutely bullshit. The question is: why? Are you trying to lure out mafia, or are you trying to set up suspicions now so that mafia can steer votes away from people like TruthBringer? I also know its the only list you can push with pledges and not get list checked. If you're so confident that the list isn't ripe with red, why don't you call a double lynch and let us clear it out a bit more, hmm? Oh, because you're covering for someone. Uh, you and I both have the knowledge of one of the roles of someone who seriously ran for office. That's why I'm in a unique position. If you're godfather, I'm the person who has the most information telling me that you are because of the fact that I know i'm not. No one else can tell if i am, and frankly DTs can't check at this point either because of your cover ability. WHAT VOICE? You've said it yourself; town shouldn't need you unless MBH gets killed. You're contradicting yourself at such a high rate, it boggles my mind. I'm not going to sit down and make the player who has the highest likelihood of being the godfather in the game dictate who I should lynch and how I should analyse. This both goes against your own platform, your cute little twist with killing off one of our best players, and the most basic rule of thumb for a town player: think for yourself. I'm not telling everyone they need to believe me. I told them to look at the information in front of me. You, by contrast are telling people to shut up and get in line for mafia house slaughter time. Sorry, no dice. And for irony's sake: Like you, pyrr and foolishness did when I posted my analysis of truthbringer? He hasn't shown up either. By your very own logic, you should realize that people who aren't in your little cabal should switch votes, and switch votes now. Rofl, man your insanely deluded. Wanting to kill someone on a list based on certain traits is normal and yet the the fact he has come out of the woodworks with the shaddiest play's make him a prime suspect so this means he is on a list for being way too active in a bad way, much higher on a kill list than someone who I EVEN ADMITTED is likely red off your own analysis, but do you stop to consider the fact that A VOCAL MAFIA is more destructive than a non vocal one, the answer is no in terms of truthbringer/ydg, youd want to lynch the inactive one, well, kudo's to you. As for me being GF? Wow your retarded, a mafia member would never willingly help the town to the extent I have, yet you don't even go over that. You do concentrate on vote lists, which is cool, except you have more random "where the fuck did that guy come from" votes on you. You didnt even consider mafia voting for you, in fact you dont want the town to ever believe even for arguments sake your red. Stop with your shit already. You want an answer on araav tieing someone up as a tank? shoots a net, he has a display pic of a zealot which have arms, etc... he was linked off a clue, and you found fault, I could go over yours and find the obvious faults but at face value it seems legit, especially as of day two, but giving suspects to mull over is a town job, Ive given three to your one, and only one of which was a weak connection, you however bully the choice of one, then accuse one of the few people actually helping the town. As for your unique standpoint, I KNOW im not the GF, sorry pal, your "unique" standpoint is wrong as im not what your accusing me of. As for killing off a best player MBH as a bad call? IF plexa randomized roles according to balance, him being green means your or I should be red, I know i'm not, and everything I have done to this point indicates that, what about you? You push one person, argue that a autolynch should be used on your competetor to get info on a vote list? They flip green you get killed, and even if your green, town gets fucked JUST LIKE LAST GAME. Your doing the same shit that got ace and ver killed, and you were wrong then just like you are now. I will give you can analyze well, but your leading ability is horrible. My plan gives us a confirmed powerhouse, yours would have given you vote lists that you can't even prove anything from. I die and flip green my list could be completely townie, or mafia sends entire force to get me in, etc... You can't know. Mafia can easily hide on the three lists to avoid suspicion yet you dont consider Obvious facts. My only flaw in my plan is the priest dying. Yours had so much more. As for me telling people to follow me at this point, YES its logical, You have given some sound analysis on truthbringer, thats cool but you werent elected, hell I was and am giving control over to a revived guy, so till he's up, why dont you simmer the hell down. As for double lynch? We are clutching at straws on links, and you want to waste a double lynch? Give me more than day 2 clues on someone, hell even more than my behavioural analysis on someone, link someone both ways and sure ill enact a doublelynch, but wasting one on very little is asinine, and you should know that. After seeing these posts of yours I know why so many of the top players now ignore almost everything you say. Outside of your campaign post and truthbringers analysis, you spend more time pushing crockpot ideas and costing town's games. So L stop trying to bring the town to the brink of death like you did last game so the town can win. Stick to your analysis posts and you are useful, outside that your destructive so just stop. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7876 Posts
On July 06 2009 11:45 L wrote: I'm going to do this a bit more in depth and with colours, because short posts are easy to swamp with terrible ones if mafia wants to move to the next page. Day 1 Day 2 Red Clues link to TruthBringer: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=TruthBringer First off is the Arrogant look. This links twice to the profile. The first link is via the skeleton picture. Slightly leaning back, the skeleton has the most arrogant possible look I've ever seen put on bones. Bit stretched, but whatever. His name also links here, since it implies that he's somewhat of a cocky guy. The second link is the fact that he kept his eyes peeled; Carbon FC links here: it is a glassy carbon used to make motorcycle visors. Next: Shikyo leaps out of his chair in shock. Well, no fucking shit, a skeleton just broke into the room. Third: The method of death; Explicit reference to a lack of organic matter in Shikyo's head, much like the decayed skull that TruthBringer has. That's not the 'big clue' though. The fact that his head is filled with so much lead that its more metal than flesh, however, is. An entire pistol clip couldn't do that, but a chaingun sure fucking could. Fourth and Lastly: Vivi's death Vivi is cut in half by bullets. Chainguns can do this, pistols cannot, rifles cannot, shotguns would need to be near point blank and fired in a specific pattern to do so. Overall, the chaingun is pretty telling here. Blue clues link to Kuja900. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=Kuja900 Note how there's very little solid information directly related to the character besides for his love of explosives. He's the only one I have linked to explosives via his mybrute (I checked all of the one listed in profiles, as of right now, his is the only one with a bomb). He also seems to be fairly quick, which his character is. Between the two, Truthbringer is obviously a far better target, but I haven't found someone who links to explosives as well as Kuja. The fox glove clue can link to digitalis or cardiac drug medicines, but we can wait a day and see if anything extra comes up here. So to recap: Vote the shit out of TruthBringer. + Show Spoiler + On July 06 2009 15:39 BloodyC0bbler wrote: YDG Why he is Mafia. So, we come down to the last bit of game. I have opted for a different approach this game than normal. The town leadership although “won” by me will be directly placed on MBH when he revives, why you ask? Because he is confimed townie. As such I have gone out of my way to get reactions out of players, and observe how they react/were acting before said post. YDG is the most prominent of these people. Now we will analyze why Look at these time stamps people, within the span of 20ish minutes, he has argues snow/rain/fog. Saying he voted for snow, then asking people to vote fog. You wonder why is this an issue, well that’s a good point. See, common mafia tactic is to appear to be active, as this is, even appear to be helpful which it does, HOWEVER, by constant flipflopping and not enforcing one idealogy off sound reasoning, we instead have someone trying to create chaos and disruption. We move on. Wait a second He just advocated voting fog, now we are back to saying snow is useful for day 1, and tries to once again express this is a good idea. Constant try to keep conversation on a bad bad idea, he even ignores the fact that fog will lower KP, when 5 is insanely high for such a low player game. Here he doesn’t like the fog option repeatedly as he doesn’t believe we can hit pledges without list checks (fog has been deemed smartest choice overall by player base for day 1) Once again he wants us to let mafia have highest KP possible. He mentions how he doesn’t like to clue analyze day 1(very intelligent I will give) then proceeds to CLUE ANALYZE, only after I called him out, WHY would you start doing something you said you don’t like doing when that reason was acceptable, instead he tries his best to be on the side of the town, but hes trying to hard all too fast as the next message will show. [b] This bit of math has basically been covered at least once by this point, I will even quote it (check timestamps) So we have a rehashed equation in more depth that tells us basically what we already know (the detail is useless as the result is the same as I had already mentioned). He is rehashing old info, even making it look prettier to slide under the radar. Two posts very close to eachother (time difference obvious in time to write the messages pretty well). Both are directly attributed to me calling him out. Then moving onto another list of people to look at (look they didn’t vote). Then, he wants us to concentrate on finding the priest is, ok that’s not to bad of an idea…..wait, he wants to keep using priests ability to get confirmed townies in the works… Does he not realize that’s useless. Unless we get perfect lynches going for awhile (or assassin hits) mafia can wipe us out in 6 days, we won’t have the time to swap the priest role for that list, as the game wont last that long. he added very little information to a brief summary of a mafia member, again, appears to be more useful than he is actually being, subtle mafia trick. Makes mention to similarities of people that L had already made in his huge post on why to kill Truthbringer. Again he is rehashing information given in an attempt to be “active and useful”. But its not real use, its rehashing information. Instantly dismisses Araav, who was a very good link (only person who really links to flowers in this case). The vx70GTOJudgexv clues are weak as he stated and meant to be such, his reaction was needed for behavioural analysis. However, YDG defends both Araav, and Judge almost as soon as he sees my analysis. But wait, he said he likes giving his own analysis way up above as of day 2, but he doesn’t provide any of his own, instead he says L’s is sound and logical. He still doesn’t contribute anything sound, but does give a link to inertinept that’s weak as hell. and the attack finally begins. He attacks me personally based on someone supporting me instantly, although Pyrr disagrees with my analysis of judge seen Oh shit, that was before YDG’s attack. As well as pyrr supporting L, but wait, he can’t support us both? In closing people, we have someone who is seemingly being active, while not actively contributing anything useful, and just rehashing information given by other players, but by quoting larger posts, he can appear to be helping. Remember he A) advocated that people opt for snow (he said he voted for it) to begin with, then opted for fog after others were set on it after arguments by L myself and others. B) he stayed relatively useless, then as soon as he was called out, he makes a valid reason of why he was inactive that any player would normally accept, then goes and breaks that reason to post shoddy analysis, and then rehash more information already given C) He wants us to locate the priest. We don’t need to know the priest as the only job they have is hiding till their resurrect is done. And finding the priest out only helps mafia, it means we would have to go rain (giving mafia 5 KP) to stop the bomber, and then they stack kills and kill priest anyway or force meds elsewhere to take out other targets while sniping the priest before his powers swap. Untop of that he wants to use the priest over and over to get a group of confirmed townies when a game won’t last more than 2 full uses most likely. The logic is faulty and surprisingly people overlook it. D) rehashes more information, then as soon as specific people are targeted from analysis, one solid one not, he opts to defend both of them. WHY, judge already had a reason given by me to get a reaction, but YDG gave us even more, why defend someone with a weak connection that no one would lynch him on? To protect one of his own. He also defends Araav who has a good connection to him, and also someone who has been inactive a large chunk of the game. E) attacks me for having a supporter who is someone actually supporting multiple peoples analysis. These are all major things mafia do to sidetrack the town. YDG obviously wants you to suspect me, as killing me off would remove the double lynches from the town. He also wants top KP for mafia, and a priest found. If you need more information than this to kill him, we won’t last long at all. These two posts are L's analysis on truthbringer and My own on YDG These two should be the only two considered for lynching today, and I am bumping them to prevent them from being buried and missed. | ||
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On July 07 2009 11:12 Malongo wrote: Ok since L is taking a good point and nobody sane will risk following me ill change and follow him this time. Hey look at your list look who is next after the 3 first... yeah heavonearth. Im going with truthbringer because: a) Ls clue analisis is decent. b) This lynch is a gamble anyways. c) Again Ls behavioral analisis is decent. So this gamble is more likely to give us more "implied odds" in case of success. If we fail... we lynch heavonearth  . For weather i think that snow is the best this time. Sunny is useless, rain too because angel protection is doubled on target, that means we get 2 people protected anyways and i really think mafia wont double their hits until they found one of their hits didnt pass. So we have fog and snow. Fog is good, it gives us -1 kp. However we wont be able to make a checklists of these lists (not too important) and we lose the chance to get a countercheck to our list of clues. I think this will be the only day when we are not in a bad position to get more clues. Next day we wil need to decrease mafia kp to assure that mbh gets back and then rain to protect him. So im voting SNOW First off You don't even know how rain works, and the fact your opting for more clues over less mafia KP means your an idiot. MBH has what, 20 pages of behavioural analysis to use (the kid can snipe people insanely easily off that) and your like "hey guys lets lose 5 people tonight" And didnt you learn anything last game by sucking on L's nuts? he got a green mayor killed, caused the vice to suicide, and protected a 100% mafia, and you say his shit is sane, just wow. | ||
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So just stop. And yes day is extended by 24 hours from the end time plexa posted previously | ||
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Habit from my first game I ran, I had you capitalized on all my spreadsheets and word docs i wrote up. | ||
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On July 07 2009 11:34 StorZerg wrote: spreadsheets holy crap... well people need to vote in, and then the game can move on. From the first game I RAN, Talk to most hosts and they will have alot of stuff written down to keep order of everything, Does no one read -_- | ||
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VOTE FOG Its been said by me previously but may have been overlooked as alot of stuff seems to. We are not guarenteed a red hit on this lynch, as its a gamble regardless of who's killed. IE if we fail to kill a mafia and vote rain Mafia stack hits and kill priest (provided meds even know who to protect and mafia knows who priest is). Or if we vote anything but rain, bomber can bomb him. This means we must have fog up to drop KP down, and hope mafia hasn't found the priest. Less people dead is the best outcome. So everyone please vote fog. | ||
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On July 06 2009 04:08 TruthBringer wrote: Is it worth analyzing on priest so that an angel can protect him or should we just hope the mafia don't figure out who he is? On July 06 2009 04:16 TruthBringer wrote: I understand your point. But if we leave it alone . . . the mafia are more likely to figure out who the priest is than the 2 angels. Anyways, other people can throw in their opinions on the subject. To be helpful, theres some quality posts by truthbringer to weigh into voting with | ||
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On July 08 2009 14:01 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: I guess this could mean redtooth knows TruthBringer is innocent and wants to get his vote off of co-mafia YDG and by abstaining he won't be among those looking suspicious for picking the innocent TruthBringer + won't be able to be checked by the Mystic. Chances are your right on the dot with this. This almost confirms redtooth as pledge. So hes jumping off ydg to go on the abstain list. This means hes trying to hide where he can't be checked and most likely trying to protect gf/bomber, or at the very least a reg mafia, and with his vote switch dropping the vote count on ydg, it almost guarentees truthbringers death. Seems to me hes aiming to push a) a townie to death over his fellow mafia or b) protect the gf/bomber by sacrificing another red. | ||
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First off Mr. Julia is none other than Pyrrhuloxia. Lets quote the characteristics of him and you will see. On July 06 2009 03:42 Plexa wrote: ![[image loading]](http://i110.photobucket.com/albums/n99/chuiu/TLday.png) There was one matter left to attend to – the destruction of the secret Liquiville Cheese recipe. The task was left to Mr Julia, a newcomer to the Mafia but nonetheless determined to carry out his orders. Mr Julia had a nack for working out combinations and he had cracked the safe within seconds. He wasted no time in burning the recipe with his lighter. “What are you doing!!” cried fishball, startling Mr Julia and causing him to accidentally burn himself on the recipe. fishball watched in horror and amazement as Mr Julia’s burn wound began to change colour and pulsate. “Look what you’ve done!” exclaimed Mr Julia who came lunging at fishball. fishball fended Mr Julia’s first few blows off, but each blow became more erratic and powerful. It wasn’t long until Mr Julia landed a punch square on fishball’s jaw, knocking him to the ground. Mr Julia pounced on fishball and eventually turned fishball into a bloody pulp. Even though fishball was dead, Mr Julia could not stop and eventually, after his body began to pulsate, he passed out. Four Mafia had entered, but only three had returned to the exit. All three of them instantly knew what had happened to Mr Julia and rushed over to the safe room to bring him back home. vivi57 was the last security guard on duty and was know well aware that the place had been hit by the Mafia. He was hiding around a corner, near the safe room, hoping the Mafia would leave him be. However, the instant the 3 Mafia passed the corner he was struck down by a large faintly warm object. He fell to the ground dazed and confused, but could make out 3 fuzzy shapes leaving with some kind of psychedelic object draped over one of their backs. The three Mafia noted that he was still alive and opened fire on vivi57 – the sheer intensity of the bullets severed vivi57’s body in two. Now, if you look at the entire passage for Mr.Julia It starts with him opening a safe, Him changing colour after burning himself Attacking fishball by jumping on him and beating him up Passing out Being held over his compatriots back and being psychedelic Now lets look at Pyrr’s profile. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=Pyrrhuloxia found here one link in his profile is http://hegesonic.blogspot.com/ from this blog you get this link embedded near the top of the first post Watch this video, IT is super important. It opens with the man in a beige shirt, black pants and red hair taking an elevator down to a locked door, which requires him entering a passcode to get in. He goes in, starts an experiment during a lightning storm with ends up blasting his lab, and himself into a new world where he swims to safety. HE is now wearing a black shirt and beige pants! A change in colour. And in the midst of the destruction of his lab, a red fireball followed by lightning seem to slam into his lab. Fire changing his colour He is captured and with the help of another prisoner escapes and gets a gun. This gun gets stronger the more you charge it (it also pulses a bit) Near the end he is saved by the prisoner who saves him who fights with another guard by jumping on him and beating him in the face. And in the end the main guy drags himself to a leaver and pulls it which turns his enemy into chunky bits (bloody pulp), and passes out. His fellow prisoner then puts him over his back, and hops onto a beasts back and flies away. As for being psychedelic this link is in pyrrs profile http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2zxf_to-here-knows-when Which is insanely trippy. This second link fits very well as plexa chose to separate the two areas with clues to mr Julia, like he was taking a clue from a new place. | ||
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Finally caught you pyrr. I will move onto another mafia clue soon, as now there is an idea of how Plexa does clues. | ||
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However, one other person can fit this style. Ecomania. He has almost nothing based off his profile other than his name and that hes from germany. Foxglove plants are found in germany (google and its up). Next look at his name Eco-mania This shows he is a maniac. but specifically for the environment, which could lead to him being a terrorist. Dropping the poison into the cheese would be helping the environment in the end as it would remove the people destroying it (a factory would create waste product and the like that damages the surroundings). Planting a bomb is normal for terrorists, and tieing up people as hostages is normal as well. I believe he best fits the job as the seed dropper. | ||
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On July 09 2009 04:19 HeavOnEarth wrote: bc, why do you think truth bringer zombie voted for you? why are you ignoring this? My guess is mafia are voting in such a way to get me lynched. blind vote with me, and more flip red the higher chance of town lynching me removing the double lynches. Or he was told too. I am unaware why, but it means I seriously have to step up my game to further prove my innocence. Hense getting back on the clue analyzing over doing behavioural. I still have suspicions on YDG because of redtooth jumping off him to abstain (makes both of them look red) but after seeing the clue linking to ecomania and pyrr, they are higher on my hit list now. | ||
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Not saying its a clue, but less likely you would write someones death in a way that if they were red they would kill themself off their own poisoned cheese .I could be wrong, but I found a better link regardless. | ||
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On July 09 2009 04:36 redtooth wrote: + Show Spoiler [BC's Post] + On July 09 2009 03:56 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Mr. Julia, the mystery unraveled. It took looking seriously through profiles, and I found the bastard. First off Mr. Julia is none other than Pyrrhuloxia. Lets quote the characteristics of him and you will see. Now, if you look at the entire passage for Mr.Julia It starts with him opening a safe, Him changing colour after burning himself Attacking fishball by jumping on him and beating him up Passing out Being held over his compatriots back and being psychedelic Now lets look at Pyrr’s profile. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=Pyrrhuloxia found here one link in his profile is http://hegesonic.blogspot.com/ from this blog you get this link embedded near the top of the first post http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zgkf6wooDmw Watch this video, IT is super important. It opens with the man in a beige shirt, black pants and red hair taking an elevator down to a locked door, which requires him entering a passcode to get in. He goes in, starts an experiment during a lightning storm with ends up blasting his lab, and himself into a new world where he swims to safety. HE is now wearing a black shirt and beige pants! A change in colour. And in the midst of the destruction of his lab, a red fireball followed by lightning seem to slam into his lab. Fire changing his colour He is captured and with the help of another prisoner escapes and gets a gun. This gun gets stronger the more you charge it (it also pulses a bit) Near the end he is saved by the prisoner who saves him who fights with another guard by jumping on him and beating him in the face. And in the end the main guy drags himself to a leaver and pulls it which turns his enemy into chunky bits (bloody pulp), and passes out. His fellow prisoner then puts him over his back, and hops onto a beasts back and flies away. As for being psychedelic this link is in pyrrs profile http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2zxf_to-here-knows-when Which is insanely trippy. This second link fits very well as plexa chose to separate the two areas with clues to mr Julia, like he was taking a clue from a new place. one thing to note about mr. julia is how he speaks. From the games I've played mafia are rarely quoted with real speech and "Look what you've done!" will likely play a key factor in us identifying either the mafia's behavior or the real "Mr. Julia's" personality. Except fishball is the one who spoke, not mr Julia. As for pulsing as i said, As his gun charges for stronger attacks, the gun pulses and grows in power. Edit: As for knowing instantly why he was missing. His fellow prisoner in the video looked behind him and saw a blown apart hole in the ground and knew instantly that he had fallen down it (hense missing) also at the end of the vid after the fight, the same fellow prisoner knew to go up the warp area to find him passed out.. It all fits, and with this much on him, it seems unlikely plexa would link all these clues in the same order as a video progression randomly. | ||
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for the tall lanky person, I would say it falcynn. If you google the mission codename applesauce, you will be linked to the aquabats. The lead singer of it is a man (who appears tall and lanky) and is also known as the bat commander. if he was a bat, the roar could have been his sonar, and would explain why he knew elemenope jumped from the window. This is weak, but would also explain how plexa was found day 1, if he was in the shadows, and then buried himself deeper into hiding, the bat could pick that up and kill him. | ||
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fishball speaks first though, which engages the conversation. | ||
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On July 09 2009 10:48 LucasWoJ wrote: Alright, so it's sorta quiet this night. I voted for Fog yesterday. Are we sticking to that? It seems we should change to snow because BC has cracked the Plexa-clues. On the other hand, it might be a good idea to get Sunny so that we could kill off suspicious people like Pyrr or L. Also, this whole Mr. Julia thing is really intriguing. I think we should re-focus our efforts on decoding that stuff. He seems to have a very androgynous quality to his name. Perhaps this applies to his person as well?? The only person who really stands out to me for this Mr. Julia is Scaramanga. His name ends with an "a" so it's feminine. He claims, I think, to be a dude. So he's both a chick and a guy. This works. Another great candidate for Mr. Julia is Caller, who name sounds like "Call HER" Thoughts? They're my top two suspects right now. If you believe I have cracked the clues why are you trying to find out mr. Julia when I already linked him (hense the break in clues) also as mentioned caller has no clues towards him. | ||
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Second day of clues and the characteristics. Yellowish skin no nose strong and skilled scarred on face. If you read my last analysist of day 2 clues of pyrr, you would have seen He was linked via his profile to a game called another world. In this case, I would say the clues link to the sequel to another world, called heart of an alien. Part 2 of 2 video found here If you go to the last remaining 3:14 minute mark of that video you will see at 3:14 a gate is opening and a yellowish guy with no nose takes down a big monster by slipping to the side and grabbing it from behind and punching it in its face to bring it down. Much as julia beat down the big judge. Then at the end that man is beaten by the monster after he is clawed in the face and dragged off. In a way this mirrors the video in the sense of the man with the skin/scars quickly flee's as he senses his time is near, as and quickly hides his target in the cheese factory (at the end of that clip he is dragged into a monster den). Also note to bockit. L and I were both believed to be in a similar boat, most likely one of us being the GF was the belief we had of eachother. But at the same time, IF I was the GF, why would I kill someone who would be my own shield, and could ensure lynched in my place. Let alone the fact your advocating removing double lynches from your town repetoir as well. Those little issues are more of a problem. Also, Killing L again is not in the best interest of a mafia emp for this last reason. You would never be 100% sure on which of us was mafia if we both lived, IE a double lynch would be used today to off us both. To see which of us was red if any. If you can predict your own death, you would never remove someone you could take with you, thats common logic. I would more look at this. L hit the mark perfectly on the truthbringer analysis, his analysis gave me the cipher I used to link pyrr to mr julia, ecomania and falcynn to the other two from day two (although those two arent as strong). If I did infact get them accurately or at least 1-2, chances are they would want me dead as well. That being said, I am enacting a double lynch for the day (pming plexa after this is posted). So we seriously have to step it up, and get mafia killed. | ||
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On July 10 2009 03:42 motbob wrote: Your analysis yesterday fit very well to the video but you are grasping at straws here. The guy isn't yellowish at all, wtf. I meant yellowish i guess more in terms of a regular person. If you watched the video previously, the actual man has a regular skin pigment, and these other guys seem lighter in colour. Not dark to be brown/black. But normally if we see someone of a different race and lighter in colour we call them yellow. It is a stretch in the colour, I know, but alot still fits. Hell, saying exactly 3:14 seems to indicate the importance of time (in this thread 3:14 am is only posted in the clue post and one post by ydg) but ydg doesn't really link to mr julia. Weak clue would be to bockit however though. The animation in his profile could be very hypnotizing, and he used it to hypnotize so no fek and caller, but caller resisted and ran, while so no fek succumbed. Also would suggest why he didn't fight back at all during this entire endeavour. as for the nautical theme bockit has a quote saying "i'm on a boat" Its weak but I will look more seriously into the clues soon. | ||
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On July 10 2009 04:42 ydg wrote: I don't think it's as much as a hypotnizing as it is a turning to stone thing, because why would they dump the body in the ocean which would then sink? infundibulum's quote comes from a song: http://www.scoutsongs.com/lyrics/beautifulmorning.html "All the cattle are standing like statues, All the cattle are standing like statues" Actually, coupled with the fact they mention the morning rooster, this makes this a much more solid link. Good find. | ||
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On July 10 2009 05:06 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: well its true last time BC and I gunned at each other we were both innocent but BC wasn't hallucinating color changes and youtube video scenes that game. sorry if im trying to keep solid links to the best possible day 2 link to julia. Hell, if you can help find another person who links to a lack of nose (which is what im doing now) Id admit to being a complete tool, but like, lack of nose +face scarring +taking town a big raging monster currently links to you fairly well, and the time point of the vid shows that scene start. But I am open to other ideas. | ||
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Also, lucas he does have MJ in his profile so im going through the rest of it now. | ||
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multiple colours listed (possible change of colour do to fire?) the words electronic device phrase punched to death Not seeing anything that would have him as psychadelic from his profile. From last nights clues would be the MJ to no nose (he has alot of surgeories), dunno on colour to yellow change, and a quote to 3:14 could be stemming from where this quote is found Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'entrate that is from dante's divine comedy translating into All hope abandon, ye who enter in, but its canto III line 9 Canto III line 14 is * Qui si convien lasciare ogne sospetto meaning Here one must leave behind all hesistation | ||
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These pms are from a conversation the two of them had with eachother. Carefully read each, and you will see the discrepencies. Foolishness + Show Spoiler + Okay I'll list out the PM convo (it's relatively short don't worry) and I'll throw in some stuff at the end. So he PMed me first with this: LucasWoJ: Out of curiosity, who do you think is mafia? I assume you're a green townie since you're doing exactly what I wanted to. There's nothing to do and people are absolutely retarded screaming various things that are utterly unimportant. Foolishness: I had originally thought ydg was mafia, hence my vote, but I don't think this is the case. I believe TruthBringer to also be mafia. I have high suspicions against ecomania as well. As of right now I think that's all I can really say, since there's not a whole lot to go by. If possible, I would like to shift the majority of the vote to TruthBringer and see what happens. I certainly don't have any means to though. And do not forget that me playing according to your plan in the thread also meant you playing according to mine as well. I was constantly refreshing my inbox waiting for your message. LucasWoJ: Nope. You weren't. If anything, you've convinced yourself you have. Simple psychology. I'm certain of at least two blues (I won't mention them for obvious reasons -- in case you're converted), but I cannot figure out Bockit. Opinions on him? I was mafia with him three games ago, and his posting behavior was eeringly similar. Foolishness: I do believe that acting like BC or L is not in your favor, but you are free to believe what you want. That also goes for conversion. Do you really think I'm going to get converted of all people? Nobody talks to me and with much "smarter" people such as yourself and soon to be MBH, am I really going to be wasted on? If his posting was eeringly similar, that must mean he didn't post at all. He's hardly said more than a sentence at a time. Not much to go off of, although there has been some talk about him. LucasWoJ: The lack of posting is strikingly similar as is WHAT he has actually said. Writing like BC or L is entirely to my advantage in PMs.(although it's really neither. It's not just me saying "This is how things work" and expecting the universe to line up that way). Foolishness: After looking through the thread again, I can't say I've noticed anything particular about Bockit. You obviously have the good information since you can compare him to past games, and I have no experience with that. As I said before, it might be worth mentioning in the thread. Or if you don't want to come about it you could try PMing L and BC about it? They'll be sure to listen and consider. As far as that goes, if you do initiate something I'll surely help by voting for Bockit, but that'd be all I could do After he sent me the first message, I responded truthfully since lying wouldn't have done any good at this point. Notice how after he finds out what I think he dodges all the information, as well as not saying any of his opinions (except about Bockit). I know that there is no conversion, but at this point I suspected him so I wanted to play along and make him think I'm just a stupid green townie. However he continues to ignore the most important points, and just wants my opinion on Bockit. In one of the past mafia games (you might have been in it I don't know), LucasWoJ was on mafia side, and his job for the team was to consistently PM people and try to figure out possible blues for the mafia to snipe. Knowing this information is why I acted stupid and cocky, so I wouldn't get killed. It seems to me that he's doing the exact same job this game. It fits in because he simply wants what I think about various matters while not saying anything back. A non mafia member would be more likely to share their opinion on matters, especially if they thought I was clean. He has yet to respond to the last thing I sent him, and it's been about 20 hours since then. And as a side note, don't take anything I say against you (whether in PM or thread) presonally, I'm just doing it to keep up appearances. You're survival and leadership is necessary for the town to win. To summarize: LucasWoJ is seemingly trying to find out whether I'm blue or not (the fact that he PMed me first also fits in here), and consistently ignored important points throughout our conversation. He's playing exactly like he did in a previous game where he was mafia. Regarding Bockit, it's hard to determine whether Bockit is mafia or not based on this. My guess would be that Bockit is innocent (assuming LucasWoJ is mafia). However they could both be mafia, and LucasWoJ wanted to see if I suspected a fellow member (because I might be worth killing if I did, or something). That's about it, sorry for the dreaded long PM. Lucaswoj + Show Spoiler + We haven't talked via PM in three days, and we only exchanged a few before then. I thought he was a green townie at the very beginning, but now I'm ambivalent toward what his role is. Here are the PMs: From: Foolishness [ Profile | Buddy ] Subject: Re: mafia Date: 7/7/09 09:18 I had originally thought ydg was mafia, hence my vote, but I don't think this is the case. I believe TruthBringer to also be mafia. I have high suspicions against ecomania as well. As of right now I think that's all I can really say, since there's not a whole lot to go by. If possible, I would like to shift the majority of the vote to TruthBringer and see what happens. I certainly don't have any means to though. And do not forget that me playing according to your plan in the thread also meant you playing according to mine as well. I was constantly refreshing my inbox waiting for your message. ----------------------------------------- Original Message (Lucas)WoJ( ): Out of curiosity, who do you think is mafia? I assume you're a green townie since you're doing exactly what I wanted to. There's nothing to do and people are absolutely retarded screaming various things that are utterly unimportant. I'm trying to induce a certain reaction here, but he goes overboard: From: Foolishness [ Profile | Buddy ] Subject: Re: mafia Date: 7/7/09 09:35 I do believe that acting like BC or L is not in your favor, but you are free to believe what you want. That also goes for conversion. Do you really think I'm going to get converted of all people? Nobody talks to me and with much "smarter" people such as yourself and soon to be MBH, am I really going to be wasted on? If his posting was eeringly similar, that must mean he didn't post at all. He's hardly said more than a sentence at a time. Not much to go off of, although there has been some talk about him. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Nope. You weren't. If anything, you've convinced yourself you have. Simple psychology. I'm certain of at least two blues (I won't mention them for obvious reasons -- in case you're converted), but I cannot figure out Bockit. Opinions on him? I was mafia with him three games ago, and his posting behavior was eeringly similar. From: Foolishness [ Profile | Buddy ] Subject: Re: mafia Date: 7/7/09 09:54 haha fair enough Well, if you are suspicious about Bockit, why not come out about it? You have the information you need, and there is already town discussion about his possible mafia role. I'm sure one of L or BC will back you up which means you will have another few people who will follow for sure. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: The lack of posting is strikingly similar as is WHAT he has actually said. Writing like BC or L is entirely to my advantage in PMs.(although it's really neither. It's not just me saying "This is how things work" and expecting the universe to line up that way). ----------------------------------------- This one was really weird as I did not respond to the other ones. Nor did I really push for Bockit being part of mafia too hard. From: Foolishness [ Profile | Buddy ] Subject: Bockit Date: 7/7/09 10:08 After looking through the thread again, I can't say I've noticed anything particular about Bockit. You obviously have the good information since you can compare him to past games, and I have no experience with that. As I said before, it might be worth mentioning in the thread. Or if you don't want to come about it you could try PMing L and BC about it? They'll be sure to listen and consider. As far as that goes, if you do initiate something I'll surely help by voting for Bockit, but that'd be all I could do General idea: bored townie. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Ok, so I know you and foolishness have been going back and forth for god knows how long. And I need to know your general idea of him? ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Are we to continue voting for fog? Honestly, I read about 1/5 of the posts so I'm not sure whether something's been posted as to how we're supposed to vote. The difference comes down to foolishness excluding one single message from that dialogue from me being this one + Show Spoiler + From: Foolishness [ Profile | Buddy ] Subject: Re: mafia Date: 7/7/09 09:54 haha fair enough Well, if you are suspicious about Bockit, why not come out about it? You have the information you need, and there is already town discussion about his possible mafia role. I'm sure one of L or BC will back you up which means you will have another few people who will follow for sure. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: The lack of posting is strikingly similar as is WHAT he has actually said. Writing like BC or L is entirely to my advantage in PMs.(although it's really neither. It's not just me saying "This is how things work" and expecting the universe to line up that way). ----------------------------------------- + Show Spoiler + From: Foolishness [ Profile | Buddy ] Subject: double lynch Date: 7/7/09 08:40 uhhh, just to clarify, the reason I wanted to double lynch was because if ydg turns up innocent you're going to be in a world of hurt, especially after L just called you out on random stuff that means nothing. You and I both know the last thing we want is L to become town leader (prior and after to MBH being alive). If we double lynch, kill Truthbringer and ydg, we'll probably get one mafia and that should distract from any violence between you and L. Just my thought process, it's ultimately up to you of course. This is noteworthy because of him not wanting L to become town leader, In fact in the thread he had been opposition to L (he does mentioning he suspects truthbringer as well). and L had foolishness as a suspect as a potential mafia based on voting habits. He also asks me to stop trying to get pyrr killed + Show Spoiler + From: Foolishness [ Profile | Buddy ] Subject: Pyrry Date: 7/10/09 04:58 It is very apparent to me that Pyrry is innocent (whether blue or not I don't know). It's also clear that you are innocent to me as well. It's important that we form a coalition for the benefit of the town, especially since there is no current town plan with MBH dead. I have the necessary information to lead us to the mafia. If you read my most recent post in the thread (since I'm sure you ignored it) you will realize that there are strange things happening with the votes. The people I mentioned are not the only ones that are suspicious. I want to get ecomania lynched today as I think he is the best option for the town (I realize there is a double lynch so we've got other options as well). I want you to call off your accusations against Pyrry. I know you don't want to, but chances are the mafia are sitting back, hiding, and laughing right now. At the very least, by looking at the voting patterns, I'm sure you can agree that we have much better suspects to go after (even if Pyrry is mafia). Risking our lynch on Pyrry spells disaster if he is innocent. It's important that we collaborate on ideas to get another mafia lynched. And above all us, voting patterns show more than clue analysis right now. It's important we don't get carried away with clue analysis (both you and Pyrry are guilty of this). I hope you will at least consider the things I've said as you can easily turn this game around. And lastly Caller and So no fek were returning from their night class on nautical warfare, but knowing there were Mafia about they decided to take the back route to their home. While walking through the last and only park on their journey home they heard a strange but faint laughter. A twig behind them snapped. They panicked- Caller turned and ran as fast as he could, while So no fek was petrified and could not move. The Mafioso stepped forward and ensured that So no fek would no longer be able to move. As he was running, Caller heard the laughter again, but more clearer. He looked up into the trees and a curiously clothed man glided down from the tree, but stumbled on the landing and fell over. To Callers’s surprise he burst out laughing. Not willing to take a chance, Caller backed away but his leg got caught in a trap and was hoisted into the air helpless. The Mafioso stood up walked over to Caller and tied his hands up with a bomb. Standing just outside of the blastzone, the Mafioso and Caller stared into each other’s eyes as Caller’s death was literally counting down. The blast destroyed Caller. Alot of these characteristics come off making it seem the mafia looks foolish, then with the trap/bomb making caller look foolish. From all the stuff between foolishness and lucas, 1 of the 2 is red. But due to the PM discrepency of the original pm's of lucas and foolishness, Lucas appears more green atm than he did. | ||
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I've never seen foolish play before, and Lucas is playing differently than when hes normally red, so either both could be town wanting the other dead, both red pointing fingers, or one red, one town. | ||
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So no fek was paralyzed or left inert. One mafia stayed to make sure he didnt move. and when he was dropped into the water later it would be because he was also made inept at saving himself. very weak link to inertinept, but if someone has very little in a profile there isnt much to work on. Also he has a mention of a gust of wind in his profile, perhaps the first bit of laughter they heard was a gust of wind bringing in the sound? | ||
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Ecomania is a good choice as well. | ||
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On July 11 2009 02:07 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: Also BC tells me vampires apparently don't have hearts? So that could fit with the pulsation problems. working hearts (to my knowledge) I could be horrifically wrong on this, but typically vampires don't have pulses, or if they do, insanely weak ones. | ||
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Judge was protected once (as mr julia was unable to finish him), then the bomber was stacked on him and L | ||
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As a note guys, I am green, and when I die and flip as such you will realize I haven't been entirely useless. I'm accused of giving mass targets? No shit, I'm doing generalized short (most of them are very few lines) of analysis for people to look at and go "oh that could work no that couldnt" But hey, In the time since I've been at work, neither of the two people I sent my entire note list of what most people could link to via the two dead member with established clues so see my spoiler below + Show Spoiler + Scamp – cat (cat leapping possibly meant he hurled himself) gutter Truthbringer = skeleton (confirmed he was skeleton) Judge = berzerker (rage and hate confirm he was a berzerker) Scaramana = franchesco scarmanga Foolishness = fool Ilovekt = heart, or heart rate monitor Pyrr = bird Bloodyc0bbler = a cobbler (one who makes shoes, or a pie) something bloody, prince rhaegar Goodwill = kgb officer Inertinept = wind or gust of wind Jeejee = angel or tears or fear Heav0nearth = gladiator Ydg = courage? Bockit = insane amount of things Chezinu = clueless or green skinned Classic = bear semen Chaoser = pokemon, ninja, rekrul Kuja900 = bad limerick, gladiator with bomb Redtooth = ketchup Storrzerg = zerg Falcynn = falcon, rabbit, aquabat(based on codename applesauce linking to them) Ecomania = german Malongo = learning English, editor, gets help Lenwe = man or woman, bench, cyanide, happiness or explosives Infundibulum = muslim, anything music related Rebirthoflegend = a poem, troll killer, hotbid? Faronel = no clue he has no profile. Day one key terms Gored bodies/strung up like human clotheslines Tall and lanky man(most likely with a gun) Man with explosive Crushed into human pancakes (screams comedy) Day 2 key terms Man 1 (this man turned out to be a skeleton (truthbringer’s profile picture) Arrogant Shock inducing Strong, big gun Man 2 Tall and lanky (day 1) Careful or observant Quick Man 3 Carries bombs Poison/plant involvement Man 4 Nicknamed mr Julia Good with electronics Burn quickly changes colour and pulsates Strong Becomes erratic, and passes out when his body pulsates too much One mafia is also carrying or is a hot object Man 5 (is priest) (this was judge and his rage + hate was caused from being a berzerker) Has a lot of rage and hate Day 3 key terms Man 1 Mr Julia again Military training Wearing a mask Has no nose Skin growing bulbs and changing colour Man 2 Was suicide bomber He threw himself at his targets (this was scamp, possibly threw implied a leap like a cat) Man 3 One mafia causes so no fek to be unable to move Man 4 Laughs a lot Is curiously clothed Causes laughter in others (uses comical traps) uses explosives repeat used things amusing deaths two people being turned into human pancakes caller being caught in comical trap and getting tied up with a bomb the man responsible for callers death enjoys laughing and creating laughter, and dresses curiously, perhaps comically. Mr. Julia going from a pulsating erratic person into a cold precise military man A tall and lanky man (most likely has a gun) who is observant He noticed plexa in a dark place, and someone jumping from a window For those analyzing realize that the first two dead people we have as confirmed via clues are very similar to chuiu's style and work from there. If/when I die do to this lynch, go over and look at malongos/bockit's posts, you will see some stunning give aways. You should also go over the voting list and see who has paired up over the span of days, and then compare to the current bandwagoners, its fun stuff. Regardless, when I die and flip green, town will realize how boned it is, as currently only mafia benefit from the loss of double lynches from this game. So, enjoy the town loss guys, you've sure earned it. | ||
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I'm more than glad to let the town to once again be led down to death as has been the trend for awhile, so unless the mafia fucks up horribly town loses. Maybe this game will finally tell people to stop depending on big name players and to finally step up themselves. Foolishness, Pyrr, Heres hoping you two can save the sinking ship | ||
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Hell a mafia candidate or elected official would never have attempted to abuse a resurrection ability, or push to have mafia KP dropped, etc... But Logic has been gone on everyone but a few players. As much as I hate L, the guy knew his stuff for the most part this game, then you have newish players liek foolishness stepping up and not getting listened to, and instead people listen to players like Bockit and Malongo. Malongo who is universally accepted as a horrible player, and bockit who mentioned in the first day he wasnt good at this game. But hey, listen to them, they will I'm sure lead the town to die, so happy trails retards. | ||
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Without the double lynches you will need the 2 hits each assassin gets to win. Hell, you will need the extra clues as well, fog at this point will do nothing as most likely kuja or ecomania is a pledge and when they die along side me fog won't drop their kp enough. But hey, just giving you some pointers. | ||
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You know 1 gf exists, 1 pledge (bomber) is dead and one reg mafia is dead. You also know starting KP was 4.5 rounded up to 5. so, your at 3.5 round up to 4, if you take out the gf, its 2.5 round up to 3. of that 2.5, at least one will be regular mafia, so your at 2. Now this is where if you hit a pledge, your at 1.5, and after fog will be .75 rounded up to 1. Giving you a total of 3 KP anyway. If you hit a reg mafia you may drop the KP but chances of that are lower than hitting a pledge. So seriously consider voting sunny/snow, fuck even rain, but fog won't save you at this point. | ||
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On July 11 2009 15:49 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: you're getting awfully helpful now but I'm not sure snow is a good idea at this point. I think if we go sunny and go after falcynn and whoever survives out of eco/kuja we'll be doing fine. I also assumed the town didnt need me or L to help them win. I'm glad to see foolishness really stepping up, and pyrr I know even your analysis can do better than what your doing. I told you in the pm and i posted the same info here, Plexa is appearing to do clues based off a similar style to qatol and chuiu, as well as general characteristics to look for, but YOU should have already figured that out, half this town should have. Ydg mentioned it a few pages ago. So people seriously go back and read it. Also pyrr, one dt is dead, one priest is dead. The priest as clue sniped (that was obvious as fucked), and the dt gave himself away. The mafia are not retarded, they have set up this entire scenario to get me killed removing Town KP. This should be evident as by day 3, most mafia will have been linked to at least once. | ||
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On July 11 2009 15:49 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: you're getting awfully helpful now but I'm not sure snow is a good idea at this point. I think if we go sunny and go after falcynn and whoever survives out of eco/kuja we'll be doing fine. Also as a note, at this point, If i was mafia, I would pull a qatol and troll you guys beyond belief over give you any tips needed to win, so again pyrr, learn to think, I expect alot more out of you. | ||
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I'm helping with sense now so you guys have an idea where you botched up once I'm dead. Getting the assassins working in tandum is your first job, but I will let you find them yourself and it shouldn't be hard at this point. Just go into it knowing that although they get two hits each, they will only get to use one each, also assume the remaining mystic will only get one listcheck off before dying as well. Then get your act together and A) check vote lists - They are hugely important here B) Go re-read the posts in this thread. Doing clue analysis the last 2 days has been draining as almost nothign appears insanely solid clue wise, but re-reading the thread will give away most players. Heres hoping you guys don't follow the last few games progression of getting lucky at the mafia fucking up worse than the town. | ||
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As for so no fek giving himself away, go re-read his posts. | ||
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good thing i used a comma in there eh | ||
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GG mafia | ||
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Also, talk to RoL, as he was the first red i talked to at death, but my death mafia list was Pyrr motbob ecomania RoL then chaoser, chez, lenwe, goodwill and like one more were on a list for possibles. Also, not really a huge deal as it was your first time hosting, but please try to confirm townies less, you confirmed araav, caller, infundi, lucas, and i think one other that i may be forgetting. Overall good clue set though, I continued to analyze upon death and I will admit, mr julia was one that didnt make sense till pyrr made a comment about chaoser = chaos, then it was like "plexa is hilariously evil" | ||
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On July 21 2009 15:32 Ace wrote: Honestly though Plexa, I would have thought BC was mafia also. Lynching MBH was like a huge "I'm mafia suck my dick" move of the game. I can understand why Bockit did it. Eh man, the logic behind it was actually decent with the resurrection mechanic. In a game (lets assume vet players for a moment). Offing a top tier player like mbh, ver, or qatol, is one of the smartest things you can do if you can res them. They die and role flips, if down you res, if mafia you took out one of the biggest hits. Untop of that, after the lynch of truthbringer, I actually did start doing semi decent analysis, i linked pyrr (to a redherring but still) and ecomania correctly. As to why I said follow foolishness and pyrr, the town pissed me off =\. My final hope was in ydg (he was figuring out the clues) and foolishness because he was starting to look at the right places. As for you pyrr, no one would believe me when I said you were red regardless, most players in this game even at the end didnt see you as anything more than a bad townie. But as I told you on msn almost as soon as I died, you avoided me on msn and it was a tell you never ditch out when a khan game is on when you know another khan fan is online waiting to talk!But yea, pyrr is mafia mvp and game allstar player, serious props man. | ||
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On July 21 2009 15:52 Ace wrote: That bold is the problem. It's an extremely bad move. Why would you ever kill any of the best players so quickly if you have nothing to go on? The way I view it is who cares if they can be rezzed - he's out of the game for two days. That's more than enough time to do a lot of damage. It's also not certain that IF he comes back he'd have enough information to save the Town. Hence, since you aren't sure of his alignment it's just better to hope he is Town and Mafia kill him then you rez him because he'd have contributed or just catch him acting red. You got unlucky though. The worst case scenario of the Priest dying fast came through and it was over from there. That risk is exactly why killing MBH so fast was an extra incentive not to even do it. His revival wasn't guaranteed and putting both those together you looked like the most scummy person in the town. It was insane to think killing one of your best players, him happening to flip green, then the Priest waiting 2 days for a revival, MBH having a solid info base and not dying the night he was revived was all going to play out perfectly. Man, it was a non vet game, the vet names in this game were L, MBH, pyrr, myself, bockit, and then we had familiar names that were in the noob game. Out of the 5 of us, any one of us if we decided to could dictate how the game moved. L, to me appeared green at the start of the game so instantly off my list, pyrr flew under my radar for the first little while, and bockit is not as threatening as mbh. In a game like that, with 5 names people would associate with playing usually well or at least actively people will listen. Of the 5 of us, mrbabyhands is deff the best behavioural analysis, insanely good at pinning down people with roles (be it red or blue). Also since the only 100% way to confirm someone this game down to their role was death, killing a potential red monster was worth the risk if he was townie. HAD he been resurrected, he would have instantly won the game. Hell, even had town ignored me for the most part, and left me alive to use double lynches, the chances of them winning were higher. However, past that play, and a few analysis' I didn't care overall. I shouldn't have played this game because the chances of rolling green are way to high, and playing the same role 6 of 8 games + building the reputation for playing the same style each game pretty well (not hard to do when your always the same thing) and of those 8 games, 7 have been town aligned. I seriously just need a change of play and as such want a smurf only game, I can safely alter my play style without setting off alarms, which as of now is unable to happen. So I prob won't play in any non vet/non smurf game in awhile as requesting a role most likely isn't the fair thing to do at this point. | ||
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On July 21 2009 16:05 Malongo wrote: OMG please someone at least has to believe this. BC: hey im just going on other plan because i want. WTF. Thats why i came insta all in against him. And note that the first fucktard was me ok stupidity where it belongs. Btw Plexa i want to check that weather list please. Congratulations mafia you had the game 2 days ago. I made some bad plays, but your final 3 mafia list was horrible. You didnt have 1 in the group of 3. None of you thought of the move logically, Maybe I would have been better off killing L/pyrr/fishball or the like, ie someone who could lead down as well. But on the off chance one of L/pyrr/mbh/fishball was red or any other bigname, mbh scares me the most. Just as if qatol or ver were in the game i would hit one of them over mbh as they both scare me more than mbh and can manipulate the game just as well. Yes, I will admit I could have used the plan on someone else, but in this game mbh, if revived, would have enough information hopefully to completely rape the mafia, almost autowinning the game. | ||
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On July 21 2009 16:14 Ace wrote: agreed with only playing in vet/games without retards BC - games like this make the rage come out :'( Man, soon as I got my role, I wanted to auto troll game into mod kill, but was basically told by ver/qatol issues would arise from it (outside obvious ban on tl most likely). So yes, some bad plays, but at day 4, plexa had clue raped alot of mafia, im surprised that after like 2 failed lynches, the town let pyrr continue leading them with that bad analysis, but bleh. I just need a new playstyle to get me back into wanting to play, and I think smurfing would fix it. Being a known name limits what you can do as anything not in norm behaviour from previous games gets you killed. Its such a hard slope, be a red and have to lie and plot and scheme while playing similar to normal, or be green repeatedly and get bored of the same thing. Smurfing is the only option left to me | ||
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On July 21 2009 16:19 Ver wrote: I still don't get why nobody ever rereads the thread or tries to look beyond the open suspects. The votelists incriminated nearly every mafia very early on. I dunno, how can we get people to improve? I told them to look at the votelists =\ but yea, I dunno. I see some very good potentials as really good players with a few more games, so not all is bad. | ||
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On July 21 2009 16:34 Malongo wrote: Not too sure about that and if you are going to dependant on MBH every game please stop appearing in ALL the mayor lists. I better play RPS or roll a dice seeing if mbh turns red, green or blue. I try my best. Always. Im not playing a game following some guy because he is good, sorry i prefer 100% be the loser crazy guy. And for leader I wanted L. I voted L. You won the office. You were the leader. Trying to look for another player to take the lead just made you suspicious. Next time you want the office be the leader or let others take it. Actually, by setting up a situation to give a 100% confirmed role reigns to the town (also someone who ran way late for mayor) the position should be a sign that I'm not mafia. Mafia would never willingly give up power, especially when I got fingered as the gf. Gf in this setup would never run for election as he can cover a regular mafia and have them take the role + get a regular red bg protection offchance the mafia dies, less kp lost and bigger loss on town in double lynches. I did some bad plays, but if you look at the sum of things i would be viewed as a) insanely obvious mafia, or b) asshole townie You'd figure people would know I'm not dumb enough to be a super obvious mafia, and instead be labeled as the tool I was =\. Overall town followed the breadcrumbs the mafia left towards other townie doors. | ||
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