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On July 05 2009 23:47 Bockit wrote:
Ok so the priest should be reviving MBH right about now.
And imagine how hilarious it would have been if MBH was the priest!
I would have shat myself, and then town would really have been boned.
Now, here's how I'm seeing things. With fog in we should have knocked off at least 1 KP from mafia tonight. and as we can't check the voting list for today (i could be mistaken but i think plexa said we couldn't), we are going to have to base our lynch tommorrow on clue/behavioural analysis.
For primary targets, I would recommend looking at
YDG - He sat back doing nothing until I posted I might kill him, then almost instantly there was a post up defending himself. This shows he was actively reading the thread and not participating. If he vanishes again he is almost deff red.
Ecomania - inactive but voted very early on for L, seems insanely suspicious.
Araav - posted once, inactive since (common mafia trick, be helpful once and vanish).
Priest, start reviving MBH if you haven't already
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On July 06 2009 01:07 Elemenope wrote:Ah, apparently this plan happened while I was sleeping -.- I'm on lunch break right now so this post will be short, but although I agree with the general premise of the plan. I don't agree on who was lynched. If we make the standard assumption that mafia is running for office, and we go further with that by saying a GF is running for office since rolechecks can happen now for the mayor candidate: Why not lynch L instead of MBH? Although, in my opinion, MBH would seem like a bigger threat if he were mafia, you said yourself; With this plan, although good in theory, it seems wasted on MBH as all we're getting is extra insurance of MBH's alignment, but now we're risking losing the priest's power completely. We also lose MBH's ideas/analysis of people for the next 2 or 3 days or whatever, and we may lose them completely if the priest is found; and if angels can find the priest, then I'm sure mafia can figure it out, too; but then again, Show nested quote +Historically medics have sucked more than any other role in the game, IE don't depend on them early game, how hard is this to understand, MEDICS DO NOT WIN GAMES. This instantly gets rid of the damn rain option. Aren't we kind of doing that now? And if our medics are as incompetent as TL history shows, then the priest might not even have protection at all. Although I realize the quote was trying to advise fog over rain, the thoughts and premise behind it also apply here since we're going to most likely have to use rain because of the suicide bomber. Yeah, mafia might lose a KP because of that, but does it really matter? It gets rid of a major power role of a network of confirmed innocents and the priest basically reduces mafia KP by .33 anyway as long as his ability is used every moment. Now we have to wait til Day 4(?) for us to make use of MBH. I just feel that if we lynched L, we would've gained a lot more information in comparison to MBH who we find out is innocent (which is a plus), but we would've found that out anyway tomorrow or the next day.
The entire plan is lost on you then. L is not as useful as MBH, period. If for instance L and MBH are both town, MBH is a better person to lead the town upon revival as he is known to be a solid player, can snipe mafia insanely quickly, etc...
L does not share those qualities, he is intelligent, he can plan, but his ability to catch mafia isn't as high. Next, on the offchance that MBH had been red, we stopped the mafia from bluesniping night 1, which is also a huge advantage.
Now, you mention how you don't like that we don't benefit from his insight now. BUT he ran for emperor at the ever last second, asking for the role so he had BG protection, now he has a few days of analysis to do without risk of being hit in mid process. IE it works to his advantage as well.
All we need to do is keep the priest alive. If he lives the 3 days his power is in use, it gets transferred on to another green user. So no we don't lose the power.
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Revealing L's alignment would have given us information about the voter pattern though
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Not neccesarily. If mafia was smart they would have distributed votes between me, L and abstainers/non voters. We benefit more from mbh's flip than anyone else, (unless L is gf) but aside from that, MBH was the best person to do this with. Plus if I off my main competetor first and he flips town I'm next on the chopping block.
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Ignoring the fact that I was far more likely to be the godfather because I ran in the election is somewhat silly, unless you already know who the godfather is.
Truth be told, I was going to kill you if I got elected in along the exact same lines of reasoning that lmnop gave.
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@BC: That is true. It seemed to me there were more abstainers this election than usual.
The thing is I thought it was pretty obvious MBH was innocent after his election bid. Literally nobody voted for him. Whenever a mafia candidate runs, they always get votes. Every time.
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The big problem with this is our medics have to now focus on protecting the priest, which leaves other players open to get fucked and die. Actually, they don't HAVE to, but people are posting as if it's the only option. This pretty much forces us into voting Rain for Night 2, because if we vote Fog we run the risk of mafia figuring out who the priest is and bombing him, taking out the medics in the process. So even though Fog is sort like a pseudo-medic, we are forced into voting Rain, which lets the mafia use their kp to its maximum extent.
edited some formatting
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On July 06 2009 02:13 L wrote:
Ignoring the fact that I was far more likely to be the godfather because I ran in the election is somewhat silly, unless you already know who the godfather is.
Truth be told, I was going to kill you if I got elected in along the exact same lines of reasoning that lmnop gave.
Except the reasoning is faulty. Using an autolynch instantly on your running mate gives you pretty well dick all if they are green. Besides, this plan ensures that when mbh revives, neither you or I lead the town. This plan works for the towns best interest, just requires us not crashing this ship before hes back in the game.
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On July 06 2009 02:18 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
@BC: That is true. It seemed to me there were more abstainers this election than usual.
The thing is I thought it was pretty obvious MBH was innocent after his election bid. Literally nobody voted for him. Whenever a mafia candidate runs, they always get votes. Every time.
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The big problem with this is our medics have to now focus on protecting the priest, which leaves other players open to get fucked and die. Actually, they don't HAVE to, but people are posting as if it's the only option. This pretty much forces us into voting Rain for Night 2, because if we vote Fog we run the risk of mafia figuring out who the priest is and bombing him, taking out the medics in the process. So even though Fog is sort like a pseudo-medic, we are forced into voting Rain, which lets the mafia use their kp to its maximum extent.
edited some formatting
True, but as soon as mbh is up we want to vote rain anyway (gives medics able to stack heal on him if need be to keep him alive, as well as prevent him from being bombed). Yes this is a gamble, but if it works town will be ahead by insane amounts that we are going to look peachy. Also, bomber will most likely be saved to kill mbh as that will be the only way to kill him later on if they get lucky.
Priest just has to live through two nights. Which is doable.
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and time for work, i shall be back later.
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Actively reading the thread? More like coming in randomly to catch up, and seeing how there's nothing happening and so not saying anything. What, do you want me to say something stupid. like sup, every time I come to the thread?
But it's okay, I understand your position, you don't have any legit suspects so you pick on people who you say will be inactive.
And if you actually did any research into me, you'll realize that I almost always vote even if I don't post in the thread, and this is construed as inactive how?
Whatever. Non-voters:
L
inertinept
clasic
kuja
rebirth
scamp
Looking at the high number of abstains, I'd say it's unlikely that either of the two candidates are mafia.
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Oh and what the hell do you mean I sat back doing nothing? Go back and read the thread maybe, like on page 1 or 2 maybe and, OH MY GOD I ACTUALLY POSTED QUITE A BIT in fact, I was the one who SUGGESTED we do fog first???
Whatever. Once we get mafia down to 4 kp (not due to weather), if the priest role claims publically and all angels protect the priest, and we vote rain every day, mafia will have no way of killing the priest. And, as the ability travels between people, we get more and more confirmed townies. And if mafia decides to role claim priest, the real priest should speak up, but I guess then there will have to be some trust in deciding who the real priest is.
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On July 06 2009 02:19 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2009 02:13 L wrote:
Ignoring the fact that I was far more likely to be the godfather because I ran in the election is somewhat silly, unless you already know who the godfather is.
Truth be told, I was going to kill you if I got elected in along the exact same lines of reasoning that lmnop gave. Except the reasoning is faulty. Using an autolynch instantly on your running mate gives you pretty well dick all if they are green. Besides, this plan ensures that when mbh revives, neither you or I lead the town. This plan works for the towns best interest, just requires us not crashing this ship before hes back in the game.
Not exactly. If they're green, you know far more about how mafia would have voted, and if they're the GF you gain a massive amount. If you wanted someone known-town you can simply revive the other person, and that's that. The way it is now, the town is basically forced into throwing all our weather + medic protection onto a certain few players for the rest of the game, which amounts to more than +3 kills. It also confirms angels when they take their first hit, because no one else is going to get prot. We also can't NOT rain for the next 3 days because if mafia unravel the priest clue, a suicide bomb puts us so far behind it isn't funny.
The problem with this plan is that it doesn't ensure that MBH revives at all; an angel kill tonight all but ensures we lose both the priest and him. As it stands, mafia hits for 5 next night and can spend a night taking the priest role out of the game whenever they choose, even with rain. Even if they don't, mafia have the advantage of knowing the medic protection is going to be prefferentially put on the priest, so they have the luxury of simply dropping 10 of our most active non-priest posters before killing the priest, which is half of the active players in the game. Look at our current activity levels and make an assumption about the proportion of mafia active posters (3-5 of them posting?), then check the proportion of town to mafia posters on day 3-4.
I don't really mind sacrificing the priest to absorb a night's worth of hits, but we didn't need to go and kill off MBH specifically to make that threat. The moment ANYONE is killed and ressed, he is confirmed. The side advantage of hitting someone who has a higher proportion chance of being mafia is that on the odd chance that the hit flips red, we gain a massive amount of information and get rather ahead in the game.
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On July 06 2009 01:48 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Ecomania - inactive but voted very early on for L, seems insanely suspicious.
Well I already wrote a post explaining why I voted for L and why I seemed inactive... did you miss it or am I still on the hit list anyway? 
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
Liquiville prided itself on it’s cheese, after all it was Liquiville’s primary export. The Cheese factory lay on the outskirts of the village and operated around the clock manufacturing cheese. Four members of the Mafia congregated outside of the factory and planned to butcher the occupants and ruin the towns economy. The Mafia entered the building and split up; two travelled alone while two travelled together.
The first headed straight for the control room. His quickened walk looked almost arrogant as he kept his eyes peeled for any sign of resistance. The Mafioso burst through the control room door and Shikyo leapt from his chair in shock. Disappointed that there was only one occupant, the Mafioso sighed and punched Shikyo in the gut, causing him to fall face first onto the ground. Standing above Shikyo, the Mafioso opened fire on his head. By the end of the incident there was more metal inside of Shikyo’s head than organic material. Satisfied with a job well done, the Mafioso signalled to his colleagues that the Control Room was secure.
The team of two got to work right away sabotaging the Cheese factory. As one sprinkled fox glove seeds all over the cheese, the tall lanky one kept vigilant in case security was alerted. Elemenope had been alerted to their activities moments ago upon hearing the prolonged roar which had come from the control tower, which then prompted him to look outside his window which overlooked the entire factory. As a security guard for the factory, he knew it was his responsibility to protect the exports at all cost. He launched himself out of the window towards the two saboteurs in hopes to catch them by surprise. However the lanky one was well aware of what was going on. A simple sidestep was enough to have Elemenope come crashing to the floor, immediately the other Mafioso tied him up and strapped a bomb to his chest. No one was able to help Elemenope before the timer ran out.
There was one matter left to attend to – the destruction of the secret Liquiville Cheese recipe. The task was left to Mr Julia, a newcomer to the Mafia but nonetheless determined to carry out his orders. Mr Julia had a nack for working out combinations and he had cracked the safe within seconds. He wasted no time in burning the recipe with his lighter. “What are you doing!!” cried fishball, startling Mr Julia and causing him to accidentally burn himself on the recipe. fishball watched in horror and amazement as Mr Julia’s burn wound began to change colour and pulsate. “Look what you’ve done!” exclaimed Mr Julia who came lunging at fishball. fishball fended Mr Julia’s first few blows off, but each blow became more erratic and powerful. It wasn’t long until Mr Julia landed a punch square on fishball’s jaw, knocking him to the ground. Mr Julia pounced on fishball and eventually turned fishball into a bloody pulp. Even though fishball was dead, Mr Julia could not stop and eventually, after his body began to pulsate, he passed out.
Four Mafia had entered, but only three had returned to the exit. All three of them instantly knew what had happened to Mr Julia and rushed over to the safe room to bring him back home. vivi57 was the last security guard on duty and was know well aware that the place had been hit by the Mafia. He was hiding around a corner, near the safe room, hoping the Mafia would leave him be. However, the instant the 3 Mafia passed the corner he was struck down by a large faintly warm object. He fell to the ground dazed and confused, but could make out 3 fuzzy shapes leaving with some kind of psychedelic object draped over one of their backs. The three Mafia noted that he was still alive and opened fire on vivi57 – the sheer intensity of the bullets severed vivi57’s body in two.
Meanwhile in Liquiville’s most holy temple a Priest was channeling all his rage and hate into the corpse of the recently deceased MrBabyHands. Uncertain of what his fate would be, the Priest knew in his heart that whatever the outcome, MrBabyHands must walk again for the sake of the town. The resurrection had begun.
Please cast your vote for who you want to lynch today in this thread.
If you have an ability that can be activated during the day (Mystic, Emperor) please PM me with your choice of actions
Remember to PM me your weather votes as well.
+ Show Spoiler +That may have just been the fastest Night-Day turnaround ever thanks for getting your actions in to me rapidly
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On July 06 2009 03:10 L wrote:
I don't really mind sacrificing the priest to absorb a night's worth of hits, but we didn't need to go and kill off MBH specifically to make that threat. The moment ANYONE is killed and ressed, he is confirmed. The side advantage of hitting someone who has a higher proportion chance of being mafia is that on the odd chance that the hit flips red, we gain a massive amount of information and get rather ahead in the game.
Earlier you had stated if elected you would've killed BC. Your reasoning makes it sound that BC should've killed you instead of MrBabyHands. You're advocating that killing MrBabyHands was a bad idea (or at the very least, there was better options) yet the other alternative that YOU suggest would be BC killing you. That being said, had it still been up to you, who would you have lynched that's not BC?
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Can't believe they went after our cheese factory. Low-blow mafia!
One BG and greens, we could have been more unlucky. More to come later on (after Top Gear).
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Yeah, it's definitely a fortunate night. We lost 4 people, so our angels didn't save anyone, but at least we didn't lose much blue.
I'll look over the post in a minute and see if anything jumps out at me, but clue analysis is not something that has ever come easy to me. One thing to consider, was redtooth's plan. He stated that if BC was mafia, we were completely fucked. Yet we weren't entirely raped last night. So I'm curious as to what was said between the two of them.
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Is it worth analyzing on priest so that an angel can protect him or should we just hope the mafia don't figure out who he is?
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
On July 06 2009 04:08 TruthBringer wrote:
Is it worth analyzing on priest so that an angel can protect him or should we just hope the mafia don't figure out who he is?
Uhhh I think that publicly analyzing who the priest is would be a very bad idea.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i110.photobucket.com/albums/n99/chuiu/TLday.png)
