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[GG] Mafia XII - The Summer Season - Page 14

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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TruthBringer
Profile Joined November 2003
United States578 Posts
July 05 2009 19:13 GMT
#261
The large faintly warm object seems to be Mr. Julia, one of the mafia guys. He is also described as psychedelic. He is good at combinations, and he cracked the safe. He got startled and his burn wound changed color and pulsated. He went into a crazed assault and then passed out pulsating.

There is a LOT of info on Mr. Julia.
Carbon FC
TruthBringer
Profile Joined November 2003
United States578 Posts
July 05 2009 19:16 GMT
#262
On July 06 2009 04:13 motbob wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 06 2009 04:08 TruthBringer wrote:
Is it worth analyzing on priest so that an angel can protect him or should we just hope the mafia don't figure out who he is?

Uhhh I think that publicly analyzing who the priest is would be a very bad idea.


I understand your point. But if we leave it alone . . . the mafia are more likely to figure out who the priest is than the 2 angels.

Anyways, other people can throw in their opinions on the subject.
Carbon FC
Shikyo
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Finland33997 Posts
July 05 2009 19:32 GMT
#263
Sigh, I've been more busy than I thought I would >< It might continue for a few more days. Anyway, I voted for bloodycobbler solely because I feel that he's the more experienced and solid player. I hope that later tonight I'll have the time to analyse the clues a bit better and actually think about some strategy... sorry everyone :/ Even my liquibet is screwed because of this >< No time to bet.
League of Legends EU West, Platinum III | Yousei Teikoku is the best thing that has ever happened to music.
Plexa
Profile Blog Joined October 2005
Aotearoa39261 Posts
July 05 2009 19:33 GMT
#264
On July 06 2009 04:32 Shikyo wrote:
Sigh, I've been more busy than I thought I would >< It might continue for a few more days. Anyway, I voted for bloodycobbler solely because I feel that he's the more experienced and solid player. I hope that later tonight I'll have the time to analyse the clues a bit better and actually think about some strategy... sorry everyone :/ Even my liquibet is screwed because of this >< No time to bet.

You realize you are dead, right?
Administrator~ Spirit will set you free ~
Shikyo
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Finland33997 Posts
July 05 2009 19:34 GMT
#265
On July 06 2009 04:33 Plexa wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 06 2009 04:32 Shikyo wrote:
Sigh, I've been more busy than I thought I would >< It might continue for a few more days. Anyway, I voted for bloodycobbler solely because I feel that he's the more experienced and solid player. I hope that later tonight I'll have the time to analyse the clues a bit better and actually think about some strategy... sorry everyone :/ Even my liquibet is screwed because of this >< No time to bet.

You realize you are dead, right?

Hadn't refreshed for a while, and what do I find... well this helps ^_^ GJ mafia targeting an inactive, easy win town.
League of Legends EU West, Platinum III | Yousei Teikoku is the best thing that has ever happened to music.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
July 05 2009 19:56 GMT
#266
On July 06 2009 03:47 Foolishness wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 06 2009 03:10 L wrote:
I don't really mind sacrificing the priest to absorb a night's worth of hits, but we didn't need to go and kill off MBH specifically to make that threat. The moment ANYONE is killed and ressed, he is confirmed. The side advantage of hitting someone who has a higher proportion chance of being mafia is that on the odd chance that the hit flips red, we gain a massive amount of information and get rather ahead in the game.



Earlier you had stated if elected you would've killed BC. Your reasoning makes it sound that BC should've killed you instead of MrBabyHands. You're advocating that killing MrBabyHands was a bad idea (or at the very least, there was better options) yet the other alternative that YOU suggest would be BC killing you. That being said, had it still been up to you, who would you have lynched that's not BC?

Me.

I know i'm green, but he doesn't, nor does the town.

If not me, Heav0n.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
July 05 2009 19:58 GMT
#267
On July 06 2009 04:00 So no fek wrote:
Yeah, it's definitely a fortunate night. We lost 4 people, so our angels didn't save anyone, but at least we didn't lose much blue.

I'll look over the post in a minute and see if anything jumps out at me, but clue analysis is not something that has ever come easy to me. One thing to consider, was redtooth's plan. He stated that if BC was mafia, we were completely fucked. Yet we weren't entirely raped last night. So I'm curious as to what was said between the two of them.

Redtooth's plan was a box of idiocy. Our vigis can't hit first night and he wanted us to go sunny. This is a complete red herring.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
July 05 2009 20:00 GMT
#268
And for the triple post: Can someone make a list of every post the people who died put up?
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 05 2009 20:18 GMT
#269
On July 06 2009 04:58 L wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 06 2009 04:00 So no fek wrote:
Yeah, it's definitely a fortunate night. We lost 4 people, so our angels didn't save anyone, but at least we didn't lose much blue.

I'll look over the post in a minute and see if anything jumps out at me, but clue analysis is not something that has ever come easy to me. One thing to consider, was redtooth's plan. He stated that if BC was mafia, we were completely fucked. Yet we weren't entirely raped last night. So I'm curious as to what was said between the two of them.

Redtooth's plan was a box of idiocy. Our vigis can't hit first night and he wanted us to go sunny. This is a complete red herring.


Yeah, I can imagine the plan itself made no sense whatsoever, but he said that if BC was mafia, the game was essentially over, which leads me to believe he told BC something he probably shouldn't have (the most obvious thing being blue roles) - either that or he just made the whole thing up, and he's mafia himself.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
Chezinu
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
United States7448 Posts
July 05 2009 20:29 GMT
#270
On July 06 2009 05:00 L wrote:
And for the triple post: Can someone make a list of every post the people who died put up?


Besides confirming roles, here is all the posts of the victims:
On July 05 2009 22:07 Fishball wrote:
I see a lot of math...
If that's what you're planning for BC, I'd say lynch MBH first.


yeah...anyone find any that I missed?
lol, clueless in The Prism!
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
July 05 2009 20:55 GMT
#271
On July 06 2009 01:07 Elemenope wrote:
Ah, apparently this plan happened while I was sleeping -.-

I'm on lunch break right now so this post will be short, but although I agree with the general premise of the plan. I don't agree on who was lynched.

If we make the standard assumption that mafia is running for office, and we go further with that by saying a GF is running for office since rolechecks can happen now for the mayor candidate:

Why not lynch L instead of MBH?

Although, in my opinion, MBH would seem like a bigger threat if he were mafia, you said yourself;
Show nested quote +
So by day 2-3 town would easily have [MBH's] orientation pegged.


With this plan, although good in theory, it seems wasted on MBH as all we're getting is extra insurance of MBH's alignment, but now we're risking losing the priest's power completely.

We also lose MBH's ideas/analysis of people for the next 2 or 3 days or whatever, and we may lose them completely if the priest is found; and if angels can find the priest, then I'm sure mafia can figure it out, too; but then again,

Show nested quote +
Historically medics have sucked more than any other role in the game, IE don't depend on them early game, how hard is this to understand, MEDICS DO NOT WIN GAMES. This instantly gets rid of the damn rain option.


Aren't we kind of doing that now? And if our medics are as incompetent as TL history shows, then the priest might not even have protection at all. Although I realize the quote was trying to advise fog over rain, the thoughts and premise behind it also apply here since we're going to most likely have to use rain because of the suicide bomber. Yeah, mafia might lose a KP because of that, but does it really matter? It gets rid of a major power role of a network of confirmed innocents and the priest basically reduces mafia KP by .33 anyway as long as his ability is used every moment.

Now we have to wait til Day 4(?) for us to make use of MBH.

I just feel that if we lynched L, we would've gained a lot more information in comparison to MBH who we find out is innocent (which is a plus), but we would've found that out anyway tomorrow or the next day.


And the two subsequent posts, for starters.

Please don't do half assed work. Makes you look like you don't actually care about the town.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
July 05 2009 21:01 GMT
#272
Alright, seems like BC is on the right track here. Plexa's priest clue looks indecipherable so we should be able to get MBH up and running if we're lucky. I'm gonna go ahead and guess based on MBH being green, as well as L and BC claiming to be green, plus some other info, that roles are legitimately randomized. Based on the kill list I am inclined to believe the mafia are noobs given that the people they killed out of a town with only a few people posting are 4 people with a combined 1 post (according to Chezinu, haven't double checked that). The foundation is set for a good game! Gonna make clue analysis and make another post with it.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
July 05 2009 21:04 GMT
#273
I'd also like to say that BC's plan shift makes it less likely that he is mafia since before he was asking to be checked and role claimed to, but now he is setting up a safer plan that would result in rallying around / claiming to MBH instead of himself. Combined with my kill list assessment, I'd have to guess there wasn't a mafia candidate unless it was Heavonearth.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-07-20 23:43:59
July 05 2009 21:26 GMT
#274
+ Show Spoiler +
On July 03 2009 15:31 araav wrote:
hey, hey

let's see who is who, shall we?

+ Show Spoiler [users] +

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araav

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So no fek

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TruthBringer

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Vivi57
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
United States6599 Posts
July 05 2009 21:26 GMT
#275
note to self: read the whole day post before trying to make fun of fishball for dying day 1

gl to the town
Flash hwaiting! Nal_rA forever!
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
July 05 2009 21:41 GMT
#276
a few people posting are 4 people with a combined 1 post (according to Chezinu, haven't double checked that)


Please, by all means, go double check.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
July 05 2009 21:42 GMT
#277
here's a couple of possible links from the first paragraph I'm gonna have to do the rest later tonight or tomorrow cuz I haven't slept in too long and stuff is pulsating -

"shock" -> BWDero's profile pic
"metal inside of Shikyo’s head" -> could be a reference to a mafia being a "metalhead" (fan of metal music) like Falcynn's profile pic or something (it's a rabbit headbanging)
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
July 05 2009 21:44 GMT
#278
On July 06 2009 06:41 L wrote:
Show nested quote +
a few people posting are 4 people with a combined 1 post (according to Chezinu, haven't double checked that)


Please, by all means, go double check.

why don't you double check I wanna sleep
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
July 05 2009 21:54 GMT
#279
Alright, I rounded up all the posts by the dead, including from the voting thread:

Fishball:
"Passing by.
Role confirmed."
"I see a lot of math...
If that's what you're planning for BC, I'd say lynch MBH first."
"I abstain"

Shikyo:
"Posting to confirm I got my role. Also, I probably won't be able to be as active as in the last Mafia, but I'll be sure to check this at least a couple of times a day."
(after death)
"Sigh, I've been more busy than I thought I would >< It might continue for a few more days. Anyway, I voted for bloodycobbler solely because I feel that he's the more experienced and solid player. I hope that later tonight I'll have the time to analyse the clues a bit better and actually think about some strategy... sorry everyone :/ Even my liquibet is screwed because of this >< No time to bet."
"Hadn't refreshed for a while, and what do I find... well this helps ^_^ GJ mafia targeting an inactive, easy win town."
"I vote for BloodyCobbler for now. "

Elemenope:
"/confirm

As for the weather: I don't believe Snow first night would be good, as stated since we don't know how exactly clues are going to be based. However, if we wait too long, then we'll miss a good timing window in my opinion. Snow really peaks at its usefulness once we find our first mafia. After that night, the other weathers outstrip it until either all pledges are dead, all assassinations are used, or all angels are dead in my opinion. But we have to get a mafia within the next 2 days (possibly 1), to make the most use out of it if we ever do decide to do Snow, otherwise it's just too late it seems with a KP of 5.

Sunny wouldn't be a good option either for first weather since we have no good targets.

As for Fog or Rain; I believe going for Rain would be the better option. Although there would be a guaranteed drop in KP if we do Fog; Angels only have one protection and there are no second lives for other players (except the angels themselves). With a KP of 5; and only 2 protections available, some of our better contributors can die early on and that would be a massive blow to the town. We can drop that to 4 with Fog, but that'd still leave 2 important people to die (possibly). With 4 protections though, we'd have a better protection spread among the town, and we'd also have the possibility of reducing KP through stacked hits on top of that (which I think is the more likely scenario that will happen if we do Rain).

And although the chance of a suicide bomber on night one is unlikely, we'd still lock him out if we do Rain, in comparison to the possible scenario of the bomber taking out somebody on the medic list *and* the angel(s) protecting him on night one.

I just feel that the risk of having 2 important, contributing members of the town die is just too great compared to double angel protection and most likely forcing mafia to stack hits

Can anybody tell me if I'm wrong in this thinking of Rain over Fog before I send in my vote?"
"Also, Plexa: Can mafia target their own members for hits?"
"WHY AREN'T YOU WARDING THE WHOLE GAME YOU CUNTBUCKET"
"hurrdurr"
"I abstain from voting."

Vivi57:
no posts in main thread
"just got added to the forum, so I'll abstain for now

it's 6:30 in the morning now so I'll read the thread when i'm not half asleep"
"I change my vote from abstain to BloodyCobbler

reason: bc seems like a solid choice and there's no major flaws in his plan. bc over L because after L's 50 pages of spam with ace last game, I have 0 confidence in his ability

edit: bolded properly"

BONUS:

JeeJee:
"also shikyo is mafia"
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
July 05 2009 21:58 GMT
#280
I'd say that mafia's strat was to hope to find blues among inactives. Only one that doesn't fit that is Elemenope. Maybe they thought all the talking about Rain over Fog was an Angel tell? In any case, I'm not sure we had to kill MBH cuz this kill list would have told me he couldn't have been mafia
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