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On May 18 2009 15:41 Jimtudor wrote: Okay, this is preliminary clue searching. The first thing I did was read into Erlend Loe. So he is an author from Norway that writes novels and childrens book that have a style that is characterized as naive.
There are three players from Norway in this game. Softer, Teks, and knutti.
IF there is a mafia among the three, I feel it is teks>knutti>softer. Teks as he got a cartoon picture that would fit in a children's book, and then knutti who pyrr has absolutely nothing else to go on other than being from norway and being knutti?
Too early to tell, but that's my 5 cent for now.
What is also interesting to note is that "L" is one of Loe's most successfull books, so my guess is that L is the connection to Erlend Loe, perhaps resulting in a fake clue. Actually, I'm a big Loe-fan, and was very surprised to see him being mentioned. I've read almost all of his books (apart from the children books), and even wrote a paper on him in school. There is no way for Pyrr to know this about me though, so I wouldn't jump to conclusions just yet. Also, the pictures in his children books are in this style: http://mediaserver-2.vuodatus.net/g/12839/643950.jpg - not really fitting to any of our profiles.
I'm not going to tell anyone to disregard this clue, it MAY definately point to a person from Norway, but I'm rather leaning towards L being the connector here (even though he's not playing in this one). Could someone more experienced than me tell me if there's possible that Pyrr deliberately placed clues here that does not lead to anyone of interest? If it's not possible, I'll shut my cakehole and go with you on this one, Jimtudor :p
About the election, I'm glad to see we already have a couple of candidates. It'll probably be hard for people to trust anyone in this game as it's mostly concisting of new players, so I think it's going to take quite the campaign to gain influence in this game (although bandwagoning could also come very quickly I guess).
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On May 18 2009 17:25 iLoveKTF wrote: "In the parking lot, LTT, the love child of the late L and Samsung Khan's captain, read an Erlend Loe novel in his Audi sports car. "
lol L by Erlend Loe (as stated above) and Audi TT = LTT. nice 1 pyyr.
And KHAN's captain is also TT. Quite a funny sentence :p
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On May 18 2009 22:36 EsbenPM wrote: I think we should way a bit with discussing who to lynch until we have an idea of who is going into office. Because right now the most important thing is getting good and active (town) people into these positions, so they help us instead of work aganist us like Quatol did in the last game.
Mafia will most likely try to get someone into office, so i think for now we should be talking about the candidates and not the lynch. Plus we should have a better idea of who to lynch once more people have gotten involved in the discussion, and then we can decide how to do it.
I agree. I'd also think that the one(s) mafia nominates for office would be announced after they have had the chance to organize, but nothing is certain, except that they probably will, as you say, try to gain a spot in the office. I saw in the other mafia game going on that they were talking about rolechecking the losers of the election, as it would be a big chance that atleast one of them would be mafia.
I also agree with you that the important thing right now is to get the good cluecheckers and behavior analysists into a protected position in office, as we well need their skill later on. The problem is, though, that there are so many new people participating that it'll be hard to know who's good, but I guess this will be easier to tell the closer we get to the voting deadline.
About the first lynch it's most likely going to be a gamble anyway. It's impossible to be sure of anything based on the first clues as there could probably be drawn a line between anyone participating with something in day 1 story. The clues will prove useful later on for cross-checking and after our DT's have done some work, but for now.. it's hard to tell what the actual clues are. So we can either go for the one connected to the most valid clue (I guess we can talk more about the clues a bit later, when the voting gets going), or go for an inactive player, either way it's a gamble. Relying on a mafia to reveal himself during the election process and acting suspiciously.. Well I just don't see that happening, even in this noob friendly game, unless we have some outstanding analysts at work.
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On May 18 2009 23:13 vx70GTOJudgexv wrote:
Erlend Loe & L
Teks you raise some suspicions here because you are a Loe fan, but there is truth in that afawk, Pyrry wouldn't know that. I think jimtudor is going a bit too far on the picture, but it's something... I dunno though.
I don't know how I should adress this without seeming desperate, but there is no way that Pyrr would know this about me at this point, but now that I've mentioned it it could of course show up in a later clue seeing how he can use post content in clues. Anyway, I still believe that the Erlend Loe thing was just a cute way to play with LTT's nick, first the user L in the other mafia game combined with the KHAN captain TT, then Loe's book L and Audi TT. I guess that's what he found when he googled L..
I'm also going to go ahead and talk about a clue that has been bogging me, although it's probably nothing:
Day 1 Story LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time.
I find this wording to be a bit weird, and we are on a starcraft forum after all. So that got me thinking about players who have slumping teams/players related to them, might be a clue. This would be the following:
- iLoveKTF - KTF in nick and picture in profile
- clazziquai - Quote: #1 Sea.Really Fan
- vx70GTOJudgexv - Quote: Proudly Introduced as Entusman #25 - GO BERSERKER!!!!
- Ra.Xor.2 - Quote: #1 Flash Fan
- phelix - Quote: #1 Canata Fan
Out of these I guess Flash might be the top contender. Not saying this necessarily is a clue, just throwing it out there.
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I'm going to go ahead and combine EsbenPM's clue find with my own, as I just realized that we may be on something here:
On May 18 2009 17:44 EsbenPM wrote: LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time
-iLoveKTF has a picture of what appears to be soundwaves in his profile which could lead to this if its a clue.
On May 18 2009 23:33 teks wrote:Show nested quote +Day 1 Story LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time.
I find this wording to be a bit weird, and we are on a starcraft forum after all. So that got me thinking about players who have slumping teams/players related to them, might be a clue. This would be the following: - iLoveKTF - KTF in nick and picture in profile
I don't want to be the one pointing fingers and screaming "lynch!" at this point, but I do want to nominate this for a clue check when time comes to it. The fact that these two clues were found in the same sentence, pointing to the same person, may be something we should think about, and atleast compare to the clues from day 2 when they come. Also keep in mind that this is a person running for office.
About the election, I too would like more people to run for office, to minimize the chances of electing a red.
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On May 19 2009 00:26 SugiuraMidori wrote: Glass exploding inward seems to be something improbable short of magick or sound waves at the right frequency.. perhaps someone's profile would reflect this?
Nice catch. I guess you can add that to my previous post about iLoveKTF (who has a picture of sound waves in his profile).
I too would rather see an inactive person lynched than jumping to a conclusion based on day 1 clues, including my own theories. This does not, however, mean that we should stop analyzing them, as they will be nice to have when we need to cross check with the clues from day 2+.
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On May 19 2009 00:47 chaoser wrote: Like i said before, the fact that so MANY clues are being pointed at someone seems kinda weird (horn, glass breaking, slump all "point" to iLoveKTF) Perhaps only one of those clues point to him. The hard thing about this game is that most people are new so there's hardly any behavior analysis to go off of =[
Yeah, it's not very likely that they are all valid clues pointing to the same person, it would make things too easy for a day 1 clue imo. But for each possible clue the chance that one of them is real increases, and this is something we should keep in mind when voting, seeing how he IS running for office (although he mentioned that he didn't check his role before nominating himself).
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I had a theory that the mafia would communicate and organize beforing deciding who they would nominate for office, and thus if he is mafia, I would think that he wouldn't be the first one to be nominated. This theory is however shattered to pieces if it is like he says, that he didn't check his role before he nominated himself. This also means that the mafia no longer needed to nominate a person for office, perhaps meaning that the two other candidates are green or blue. This is QUITE a longshot though.
God, this is quite the puzzle to put together.. I'm probably way off right now :p
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On May 19 2009 08:49 Shikyo wrote: Well, JeeJee, I think there's a difference between joining a bandwagon and actually starting a whole new one. It's easy to join an existing one, and l10f indeed seems like a standard bandwagoner to me, although he really should try to think about it himself. Teks voting for me first seems reasonable to me, trying to think objectively. We had a kind of a conversation a few pages back, for example. Whenever a player is voted for the first time, it makes me suspicious. More suspicious than normally in this case, because BWdero has a history of bandwagoning.
l10f, you might want to read my post for office a couple of pages back, and then read other people's posts, and then decide who you really want for sherif. You really shouldn't vote just because a person has the most votes. But of course it's not like I mind you voting for me, just make sure to decide to do so yourself.
Yeah bandwagoning is not a good thing. I voted first so I get to slip by without accusations of bandwagoning I guess \o/.
I voted for you Shikyo mostly based on posting history, as you probably figured out. In my opinion, the announcement post of the candidates are not good judging material, as anyone can make empty promises and draw lovely pictures of how their town is going to be like. The person I want to see in office needs to have a clue solving sense and a game vision that corresponds with mine, which you showed after some posts earlier in the thread. There were, at that moment, no other good candidates either. I still think that you are the best choice based on your posts, but every person should be coming to conclusions on their own, not because someone else tells them it's the right thing to do.
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On May 19 2009 09:09 Shikyo wrote: I would also like to propose that DTs rolecheck the losing parties of the elections asap. As was said in the other mafia game, it's likely at least one mafia is attempting to get elected, and so the losing candidates would be ideal targets for the DTs, assuming that no other, higher priority targets come up.
Yeah I also proposed this idea earlier in this thread. I'm sure you are also aware that this does raise questions about your status as well, seeing how you're making this proposition when you can be relatively sure to get into office. If you do happen to be the only red participating in the election, not only will you gain an office position, but also make the DT's waste role checks.
Even if there is a chance this could happen, I still support this idea. In the case that the DT's do not find any mafia amongst the remaining candidates, we gain two things:
1) The possibility of there being mafia in office 2) Forming a Town Hall consisting of DT's and the losing candidates. This would prove useful as the candidates are people who say they are experienced and active.
If the DT's DO find a mafia, all the better :p
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On May 19 2009 19:27 Shikyo wrote: Now what I'm curious about is if you have ever thought of this scenario: You're a mafia who thinks I am a good mayor candidate, so you try to stop people from voting me and cast suspicion on me, in addition with advocating incorrect play like avoiding lynching mafia. Even though I don't exactly believe this right now, it all seems to make sense to me if that indeed is the case. As you can see, It's not that difficult to make anyone seem suspicious, if you want them to. If you think of this as being defensive, maybe that's the kind of a person I am, then.
I don't think you're being defensive, I got the same feeling when I read his post as well. I think it's likely that he is mafia, as it would be a very weird way to play for a townie.
Shikyo wrote: Hmmm... if a vigi announces their hit in the thread and then hits a green or blue, nothing happens, no one sends them any roles, and they'll essentially be a normal townie, and thus not important for mafia to kill. If vigi hits a red, then he'd become the confirmed townie. There's just the problem of mafia killing him the same night, right after he kills the red... So maybe this plan needs some work. Maybe if he just announced he was going to hit someone that night, and if a red is hit, we should still know who that was. That way mafia doesn't know if he's worth lynching, and his vigi hit would still get through, assuming he sent it before announcing, and assuming that the earlier an action is sent, the more priority it gets. Also, vigis should be hitting only prime suspects, so I doubt that a medic would protect anyone they were supposed to hit. I'm still kind of unsure about this, though.
I don't think this is the best way to do it. In my opinion it would be better to do it like Fishball did in Mafia V, where the Vigi announces his hit to 3-4 people via PM, the people he sees as most likely being blue/green. There is a SMALL chance that he will PM a mafia, but atleast the chances are smaller than if he were to post it openly in the thread, where the mafia WILL know who he is hitting, and he will be taken down the same night. After the hit is done, the Vigi can go public and call for support from the ones he PM-ed before the hit was done. This should be enough to warrant public trust, as long as the target that he hit was a mafia (since the mafia can't hit each other).
There is one problem with this plan too, though, which is the fact that the mafia can forge this event by taking out a townie and roleclaiming Vigi, by using the support of other mafia's to confirm their story. I don't think this is very likely though, as all it takes is one rolecheck from a DT on the "vigi" to bust their cover, then all the supporters of the fake vigi would be revealed as well.
There is also the possibility that a mafia roleclaims as vigi in PM to townies, hits a green/blue, and tries to gain their support the following day, to act as a confirmed townie.
So the way I see it there are only two ways to do this:
1) The vigi claims his target in PM the night before, and hits a red, this is not something mafia can do, so he can be trusted. As long as the people noticed are not mafia, he should be safe (unless the mafia randomly selects the vigi as their target that night), and can be placed in jail the night after. 2) The vigi claims his target in PM, but hits a green/blue. This scenario will be harder, since we will need a rolecheck on the vigi to confirm his status. How will the DT alert people? He can always convey his message via someone he has rolechecked before, but how can we trust them when they say the message comes from a DT? I'm lost.
The vigi better hit a red. That would make things that much easier. I think the best we can do is to get 1 or 2 prime suspects before night 2, urge the vigi's to take him/them out, and pray that they are mafia. If we wait any longer there's an increasing chance we won't have any vigi's left to use, so we better work fast in the clue/behavior section.
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On May 20 2009 01:09 zeks wrote: For those who haven't read my platform, I would urge you to do so - it is at the top of this page. I want to pose a question to town: once the mayor does get elected today, who would you like to see get lynched? I also want to reiterate that no one should be PMing their roles to the new elected Sheriff and Mayor until further confirmation.
I'll support lynching an inactive player. As has been said many times already, townies really should atleast write something in this thread. We need all the input we can get, and we need to force the mafia to speak up as well. So I guess for now we're going off this list:
zeks wrote: Never posted: 5. omG.[RaYnE] 6. clazziquai 13. adriix33 18. Ra.Xor.2 31. epicdoom
It is worth to mention that omG.[RaYnE] atleast has voted, but I'm not really sure a possible bandwagon vote is any better than inactivity.
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Could it be possible that Pyrr are making the clues easier than usual because this is a newbie game? If not, I'd say that my try on connecting slumping to iLoveKTF is probably too weak. The sound waves could fit though. Erlend Loe may point to a Norwegian player, but it's hard to tell without a clue check. I'm thinking it's probably nothing.
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On May 20 2009 05:28 crate wrote:Show nested quote +Shikyo wrote: About multiple people claiming to have saved A, we don't necessarily have to kill all those people. Yes, we do. Read my posts again. Same reason that if a Vigi claims a hit we have to lynch the Vigi afterward if we want to believe him.
Really? If the Vigi hits a red we know it's a vigi hit, and if he told 3-4 people via PM before he did the hit they can confirm his story. We would have a confirmed townie then. Unless you believe that the mafia would risk 3-4 of their members to backup one person in order to get to the confirmed townie position, only to be revealed by a DT or a clue? Problem is, of course, if he doesn't hit a red. He can do the same thing, revealing himself and calling for the support of the receivers of his PM, but he would be no more useful than any other townie.
I'd also like the candidates to start figuring out who they are going to lynch. Props to zeks on this part, I agree on your choice, but it doesn't seem that you are the one getting to execute it. I do hope that the other candidates reads it and considers it as well though.
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On May 20 2009 05:56 crate wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2009 05:46 teks wrote:crate wrote: snip stuff about Vigi lynching Really? If the Vigi hits a red we know it's a vigi hit, and if he told 3-4 people via PM before he did the hit they can confirm his story. We would have a confirmed townie then. I wasn't talking about the scenario you are talking about here at all.
Oh, my bad then. I'll go back and view your posts one more time.
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On May 20 2009 06:03 Ra.Xor.2 wrote: There are 7 mafia in this game. So far JeeJee is in second place with only 6 votes and Jimtudor is in third with 5 votes. I'm almost 100% sure one of the two is a mafia member and that the people voting for him are mafia. Of the two I believe JimTudor is more suspicious because most of his voters have been mostly inactive. I strongly encourage abstaintees to vote or mafia may elect a mayor with their 7 man voting power.
I'm thinking the same thing. I first thought the mafia candidate was JeeJee, seeing how he was voted on by Jayme and iLoveKTF who already had connections to the possible clues, and BWdero, who was suspected by Shikyo. The latest posts from JeeJee have turned me though, I too think it's probably JimTudor who's the red one here, I might change my vote to JeeJee seeing how Shikyo basically already has secured his spot, and I think it's good that JeeJee agrees with zeks on who to lynch first. I'll wait a bit longer though.
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On May 20 2009 06:38 Ra.Xor.2 wrote: Something interesting to note, this may or may not be a clue. Erlend Loe is a nowegian writer. Three players in this game are from Norway: Knutti, Teks, and Softer
This has also been mentioned before. It MAY be something. We won't know until DT's are allowed to act. I'm thinking it's just a wordplay on Erlend Loe's book L + Audi TT -> forming the nick LTT. But you're right, we have to keep it in mind when more clues arrive.
On May 20 2009 06:11 l10f wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2009 06:08 teks wrote: I'm thinking the same thing. I first thought the mafia candidate was JeeJee, seeing how he was voted on by Jayme and iLoveKTF who already had connections to the possible clues, and BWdero, who was suspected by Shikyo. The latest posts from JeeJee have turned me though, I too think it's probably JimTudor who's the red one here, I might change my vote to JeeJee seeing how Shikyo basically already has secured his spot, and I think it's good that JeeJee agrees with zeks on who to lynch first. I'll wait a bit longer though. How do you think we should carry out the check on Jimtudor after JeeJee gets the mayor spot? He should definitely be checked out, but I don't know with what method. Lynch him? Role check him?
We can't really carry out a check at all, not yet atleast. We just have to analyze clues and behavior and try to connect them with the voters of Jimtudor and Jimtudor himself. It's not certain that they are red, but it's a start to go from at least. As long as they don't get into office they haven't really gained anything, except a nice steamy pile of attention. That would be a good start for the town. Lynching one of the inactive/silent voters of Jimtudor on day2 is also a possibility.
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On May 20 2009 07:10 The_Master wrote: My vote rested with Jimtudor since at the time I thought he was the better candidate. I changed my vote to JeeJee mostly to thank him for the wonderful post he made about in depth on the different character roles as that helps me play the game better (and it shows he knows the game at least half decently well ). Am I missing something here? Aren't you still voting on Jimtudor?
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On May 20 2009 07:27 l10f wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2009 07:14 teks wrote:On May 20 2009 07:10 The_Master wrote: My vote rested with Jimtudor since at the time I thought he was the better candidate. I changed my vote to JeeJee mostly to thank him for the wonderful post he made about in depth on the different character roles as that helps me play the game better (and it shows he knows the game at least half decently well ). Am I missing something here? Aren't you still voting on Jimtudor? And maybe you're changing vote to JeeJee because the town caught attention of Jimtudor and his voters? I don't think it's a good idea for anyone to change votes unless they're going from abstain -> someone.
It's not me you're talking to now, right? But since you quoted me I'll go ahead and adress it anyway. I would only change my vote because my voting target (Shikyo) is already well ahead, and it would be better used on securing the mayor spot if need be. At the moment it doesn't look like it will come to that though, so I'm not changing my vote.
Also, anyone switching vote from Jimtudor to anyone else to avoid suspicion, I'm afraid it's too late for that. We already have your name on the Jimtudor list. Voting for someone else now isn't going to change anything.
It's not like all the voters on the mafia candidate are mafia, either. Obviously there are going to be townies who are tricked/convinced into voting for the mafia candidate, so we need to make links between clues/behavior and suspects anyway. This means that townies should not have any reason to worry (atleast not yet, there MAY come a misinterpretation of the clues, obviously, it happens).
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Edit after post (whatever the abbreviation is, I can't remember it): I see you made a new post saying you're not talking to me, I10f, I didn't really think you were, but I went ahead and answered it anyway :p
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I'm not saying to lynch you, as others have mentioned you are an active and experienced player that it would suck to lose this early if you were to be a townie. But we should, as with any other suspect, keep an eye out when the clue comes, and also watch your behavior. But any inactive voters with few posts in this thread, that's a whole other story.
My reason for believing you are mafia is really quite simple, elimination rule. I don't think Shikyo or JeeJee are mafia, and I do expect mafia to have one of the top contenders in the election. This is obviously not enough to lynch anyone, and I don't see that happening yet either. We could all be wrong, we could end up with mafia in our office, but that will be something we will have to deal with if it comes to it.
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On May 20 2009 08:44 l10f wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2009 08:03 teks wrote: Edit after post (whatever the abbreviation is, I can't remember it): I see you made a new post saying you're not talking to me, I10f, I didn't really think you were, but I went ahead and answered it anyway :p I heard editing posts wasn't allowed in Mafia somewhere :o
That's correct, which is why I made a new post instead of editing my original one.
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OK.. I just woke up so I'm gonna reply to some posts made while I slept. First of all, congratulations to JeeJee and Shikyo for making office, although I was expecting JeeJee to become mayor and vice-versa. As has been mentioned, we need to be wary now, and try to spot whether or not we have a red in office.
On May 20 2009 09:35 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2009 08:33 teks wrote: I'm not saying to lynch you, as others have mentioned you are an active and experienced player that it would suck to lose this early if you were to be a townie. But we should, as with any other suspect, keep an eye out when the clue comes, and also watch your behavior. But any inactive voters with few posts in this thread, that's a whole other story.
My reason for believing you are mafia is really quite simple, elimination rule. I don't think Shikyo or JeeJee are mafia, and I do expect mafia to have one of the top contenders in the election. This is obviously not enough to lynch anyone, and I don't see that happening yet either. We could all be wrong, we could end up with mafia in our office, but that will be something we will have to deal with if it comes to it. JimTudor is a top spot in the election? o.O he is behind by 4 votes which is a lot at this stage in the game.
Well, he was at first, but as suspicion grew on his part, people abandoned him. It's not really the end result that matters, if he was the mafia candidate, it is entirely possible that they feared all the attention and decided to dissolve the plan, spreading to the other candidates.
Jimtudor wrote: Well, then I don't have much to defend against... Other than the fact that I sure hope that Teks elimination number game is wrong and that for all the 'top' contenders for office, one should be mafia. It's not just that, you know. It is this post from JeeJee that made people suspicious of you: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=93562¤tpage=10#186 Together with, while being active, not really contributing to the thread other than in self defense.
About the lynch, oh well, atleast we didn't hit a blue. I don't think we were doing anything wrong here, like zeks said:
zeks wrote: If you can point out anyone else worth lynching day 1, then please tell everyone (or at least convince JeeJee/Shikyo) that you're worth living, rather than giving up so easily this early in the game. Although he was active after his name was brought up, I don't think we lost anyone of importance (sorry mate :/ Hope you can take this as a learning experience!).
vx70GTOJudgexv wrote: If we move to lynch an inactive again, I'd like to see clazziquai be part of our options. His lack of posting is seriously raising suspicions for me, considering he's been in prior games. I agree on this one. If we're lucky, we may even find (more) clues pointing to him.
About the medic list, I liked Shikyo's (because I was on it.. :p). Naw just kidding. We should have a list though, consisting of the active posters. I guess the list can be made quite a bit larger than the amount of medics we have, as it would seem unlikely that the mafia would strike anyone at that list when they know there are several persons being protected on it. Unless they stack hits. I'm not liking crate's list (no, not because I'm not on it), as I don't agree on putting neither iLoveKTF or Jimtudor on it. Neither of them have really contributed to the thread apart from running for office and trying to clear suspicion made about them. We already have Jimtudor as a suspect, I'd rather protect someone else. If he dies and turns out to be blue/green, well that sucks. But at this point there are other people I'd rather save.
The only people I'm sure that we should put on this list are these three (I'll leave it to other people to decide whether or not I belong on this list):
- zeks
- crate
- vx70GTOJudgexv
And that leaves some spots for some or all of these candidates:
- Jimtudor
- BWdero
- teks (can I atleast be a candidate? :p)
I thought I would be finding more people to put on this list, but I honestly didn't. So I guess the discussion will focus on the medic list for a bit now. I'd like to propose this as the first question that we discuss:
How many people do we want on our medic list? 4? 6? more?
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I guess we should also think about using a double lynch on day 2? The higher chance we have of hitting a red the better. We really need to take some of them down before they kill us all off. We have quite the amount of inactives in this game, so if they focus on taking down the active ones, the inactive ones either have to step up, or the town WILL lose. The point with a medic list is to prevent this from happening, to keep atleast a minimum amount of highly active users alive (6 i guess). There is no way to know if the people on the list are green, blue or red, and the mafia may strike gold and take down a medic first night already. There's really nothing we can do about that, except encouraging the medics to be active and helpful in order to be placed on the medic list. If we lose blues, we just have to think about what that means and adapt to it when the time comes.
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On May 20 2009 18:02 Pawsom wrote: Also, how does that give us a higher chance of hitting red? We'll have a higher chance once there are less players, and once we have more clues.
Well.. If we have a strong case against two players, and we lynch both of them, we have a greater chance of killing off a red. I'm just saying that if we wait until there are few players left, it's probably going to be too late, even if it will be easier to hit the mafia then.
If we end up lynching blindly without any clues, that's another case though. But come day 2 we really should be making connections and assumptions if we want to win this.
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So just to get this straight: There are no clues in the night post, correct?
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On May 21 2009 04:07 Shikyo wrote: I think we should vote for double lynch if we get at least one or hopefully 2 good matches with clues that would go along with relatively suspicious behavior. If we get absolutely nothing, though, we might have to save the double lynch for day 4, although that feels really late considering the size of the game.
Keep in mind that we have two double lynches, and can use them on consecutive days. So we can use them on day 3 and 4 (have to vote for it on day 2 and 3). I think we should do this, but we can talk more about this when day 2 arrives.
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On May 21 2009 13:46 vx70GTOJudgexv wrote: his stalker whipped him forcefully in the back. Softer flew to the ground - I know he was on a few medic lists, but teks has a picture of a duck "flying" through the air with a rope (which could be used to whip someone). This isn't the first potential clue we've linked to teks, we've also had Zerg (creep), Norway (Erlend Loe). I personally don't think he's a lynch suspect yet, but we should keep an eye on him.
Aww Guess I better make some sort of defense speech? The Erlend Loe clue I've adressed several times before, probably just a red herring. But with one of the three Norwegians dead, I guess this ties closer to me now than it did before. In this department, it would be stupid for me to expose myself further by killing off softer. The rope in my picture is attached to the helicopter, otherwise mr. Darkwing would hit the ground awfully fast :p The Zerg link could apply to so many people that I don't think it's an actual hint. Too many people with zerg chosen.
But by all means - do keep an eye on me. I don't mind!
ydg and Crate: Nice clue analysis. I like it.
I'm also in favor of a double lynch vote, and I guess lynching Jayme is the best option we have now.
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The only argument I can think of is that maybe we should consider let the vigi's deal with Jayme, if we are going for the confirmed townie-plan. So basically let the vigi's hit the one most likely to be red, and lynch someone else. Just a thought.
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There is one more possible reason for only two hits though: Inactivity. This wouldn't surprise me at all seeing how many inactive people we have in this game. If a few mafia were to be inactive and not submit their orders.. you get the picture. The other possibility is - if I understand how the mafia works correctly - lack of organization. Since 6-7 mafia have 3 KP, I'm assuming that means that each target needs to be hit by 2 mafia in order for the kill to happen? So if these 2 mafia spread to two different targets, they basically lose 1 KP?
I do agree though that the most likely event is either veteran or medic protection. Out of these two I think a veteran hit is the most plausible, unless one of our medics actually striked gold on selecting target.. Which obviously could happen, but it's hard to do.
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Oh, ok. I was assuming that each mafia member had to PM the orders to Pyrr. Never mind what I said then :p
I'm thinking veteran hit then. If this is the case, they probably won't bother to hit him again, since he's basically just a townie with a fancy blue title now. Which also means that the veteran is safe to roleclaim.
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On May 21 2009 21:58 BWdero wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2009 21:55 teks wrote: Oh, ok. I was assuming that each mafia member had to PM the orders to Pyrr. Never mind what I said then :p
I'm thinking veteran hit then. If this is the case, they probably won't bother to hit him again, since he's basically just a townie with a fancy blue title now. Which also means that the veteran is safe to roleclaim. Not really. For starters, how in the world would the veteran confirm himself as veteran? And even if he could I would think mafia would want to kill a confirmed townie.
I didn't mean as a confirmed townie, as you say, that wouldn't work. I was thinking more in the lines of.. clearing up the discussion on what happened with the third hit. Now, the mafia could pose as the veteran in question, but I don't really see that happening - since the real veteran can expose that plan and they would have a suspect in the limelight.
What I said probably came out wrong, what the veteran does really doesn't matter THAT much. I'm just saying that it would be safe for him to talk about it now since he isn't a threat to the mafia anyway. On the other hand, mafia may want to take another hit on him the next night just to stop him from telling us about it, but this isn't likely either - since we would see that he flipped veteran and figure out what happened anyway.
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On May 21 2009 23:52 zeks wrote: And so far there have been no clues against me afaik, but of course I'm not free from suspicion one bit. Should we try this? Up to you two DT's to decide. (Of course, if this does happen I hope only one of you rolechecks me)
I wouldn't mind doing this, but how do you suppose we can overcome these possible flaws:
1) Knowing whether or not the DT's who rolecheck you are real 2) Presenting the results of the rolecheck in this thread WITHOUT giving up the identity of the DT's to the mafia, which would lead to them getting whacked the next night (unless protected by the sheriff, but that has it downsides to it as well) 3) As you said yourself, you may be GF anyway - although it is unlikely..
Now, it's not like we can't do this without a confirmed townie, but it would make things easier. I say before we go through with this plan we should atleast wait until day 3 so the vigi's can make their hits, if one of them strikes gold we won't have to do this.
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On May 22 2009 00:13 zeks wrote:Show nested quote +On May 22 2009 00:01 teks wrote:On May 21 2009 23:52 zeks wrote: And so far there have been no clues against me afaik, but of course I'm not free from suspicion one bit. Should we try this? Up to you two DT's to decide. (Of course, if this does happen I hope only one of you rolechecks me)
I wouldn't mind doing this, but how do you suppose we can overcome these possible flaws: 1) Knowing whether or not the DT's who rolecheck you are real 2) Presenting the results of the rolecheck in this thread WITHOUT giving up the identity of the DT's to the mafia, which would lead to them getting whacked the next night (unless protected by the sheriff, but that has it downsides to it as well) 3) As you said yourself, you may be GF anyway - although it is unlikely.. Now, it's not like we can't do this without a confirmed townie, but it would make things easier. I say before we go through with this plan we should atleast wait until day 3 so the vigi's can make their hits, if one of them strikes gold we won't have to do this. 1) The DT would tell me my role. 2) I wouldn't have to disclose who's a DT anyway. I'm willing to act as the DT's mouthpiece and if we nail one then he'll turn red and you can trust me then. 3) Up to you guys to decide. There is no 100% foolproof plan, there's always a possibility that can fuck everything up. I'm basically playing a game of probabilities.
Ahh I see. Thanks for clarifying
Guess you can forget about 1) and 2), number 3) is really only a subject because this is your idea, you know, it might be something a GF would do :p Statistically the chance that you are the GF is very, very low. When you pitched this plan I thought you meant that you wanted to receive roleclaims from _everyone_, which - obviously - would be a disaster if you were to be mafia. Handing over a complete blue list :p Now, if you want to receive the DT's attention, be rolechecked by them so they can trust you and rely information via you, that would be OK by me. If the information would prove to be false, we all know who to get, right? ^^
I originally wanted to do this on day 3, but I'm not so sure it's a good idea to wait after all. Now that the plan is public you are going to be a prime target for the mafia the next night. While we could use someone else, you're putting yourself in a very risky position if you aren't placed in jail/protected by medics the next night - so if we are going to do this, it would probably be good to get as much out of it as possible before the mafia can do anything about it.
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Hey epicdoom, mind elaborating on why you're voting to lynch me?
I have a bad feeling about lynching Jayme, the clues just seem to easy and too obvious. But as long as he isn't standing up for himself I guess there is no harm in taking him down, and it's not like we have any other stronger candidates at the moment. I wish there wouldn't be such a bandwagon against him though, no real discussion was going on, everyone just jumped aboard. I guess the majority of the town won't be able to believe in Jayme's innocence before he's dead.
I was considering changing my vote to abstain, but it won't make a difference, so I'll just leave it be. If he does turn up red I'll be surprised - but it would be a great start for us, and if he does turn out green or blue (let's hope he's not blue atleast), we should have some more material to work on, such as investigating the people who were pushing for his lynch (bandwagon starters).
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Great post Judge.
vx70GTOJudgexv wrote:
One thing that's confusing me about the people who are accusing Shikyo because jimtudor was on the medic list is they are only accusing Shikyo. You do realize jimtudor was on other people's medic lists (including my own), right? Yet the only one they accuse of any suspicion based on that is Shikyo.
Not only that, but putting Jimtudor on the medic list was a GOOD townie call, and mostly everyone agreed on it. How on earth is that suspicious?
1) Jimtudor was a bodyguard, so his spot on the list was correct 2) He was hit by the mafia
How would it benefit the mafia to put their own target on the medic list?
"But teks, don't you get it? If Jimtudor wasn't on the list, the medics would protect him because they think he's likely to get hit. He's high profiled, yet not on the list!"
Even if the list isn't "a list on who the medics should or should not protect, only a list of the people deemed important to the town" - this is a game with a lot of new players, chances are that the medics are new players as well. The safest call for the new medic players would be to protect someone on that list because they'd know the town would support that.
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On May 22 2009 21:43 zeks wrote:Show nested quote +On May 22 2009 21:36 teks wrote:Great post Judge. vx70GTOJudgexv wrote:
One thing that's confusing me about the people who are accusing Shikyo because jimtudor was on the medic list is they are only accusing Shikyo. You do realize jimtudor was on other people's medic lists (including my own), right? Yet the only one they accuse of any suspicion based on that is Shikyo. Not only that, but putting Jimtudor on the medic list was a GOOD townie call, and mostly everyone agreed on it. How on earth is that suspicious? 1) Jimtudor was a bodyguard, so his spot on the list was correct 2) He was hit by the mafia How would it benefit the mafia to put their own target on the medic list? "But teks, don't you get it? If Jimtudor wasn't on the list, the medics would protect him because they think he's likely to get hit. He's high profiled, yet not on the list!" Even if the list isn't "a list on who the medics should or should not protect, only a list of the people deemed important to the town" - this is a game with a lot of new players, chances are that the medics are new players as well. The safest call for the new medic players would be to protect someone on that list because they'd know the town would support that. Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia?
Yes they would want a mixed list. Are you implying that the other people on the list are mafia, so that Jimtudor was needed on the list to make it mixed? There are many other people they could place on the list that would make perfect sense, as you say, there is no way they would fill it up with only mafia. But to deliberately place the target they ended up hitting on the medic list? I just don't see that happening.
Those clues are very interesting by the way, Shikyo. I'll try to take a closer look on the clues we have when day 3 comes. Hopefully we can start gathering the clues and start making mafia profiles by then. (See this post in Mafia VIII for a good example on what we should be doing: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=93286¤tpage=83#1654 )
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On May 22 2009 23:06 zeks wrote: Because jim was a good enough contributer that he can't simply be ignored to be part of the medic list.
So.. why are we even discussing this then? We all agreed on putting him on the list, and all of a sudden that's suspicious?
And if he wasn't put on the list, that would be suspicious as well, right?
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On May 23 2009 05:49 crate wrote:btw Show nested quote +teks wrote: and if he does turn out green or blue (let's hope he's not blue atleast), we should have some more material to work on, such as investigating the people who were pushing for his lynch (bandwagon starters). we don't get much info from the votelist for today because only epicdoom and me voted for anyone but Jayme today. There are a few people who refused to jump on the bandwagon early on, but at this point votes mean nothing anyway so who cares? I don't read anything in any votes made since Jayme got to ~15-16 votes. Hell there probably aren't enough active players among the people who have already voted to change the lynch vote by the end of the day even if we get someone roleclaiming mafia. We might be able to read something from who votes for double lynch, but I'm not certain of that either.
Yeah, it wasn't the votes I was talking about, but rather the thread, finding the people most eager to lynch him, so to speak. Of course, this is no surefire method but it can give us a pointer on the ones we already suspect, check out where they stood in this matter.
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Basically, we don't have that long to reduce mafia's KP, so we better start soon. We have two double lynches available, and can use them on consecutive days, so day 3 and 4 would be good days to use them on. Striking two suspects instead of one hopefully means that we can nail a mafia we otherwise would have missed. I'm all for it.
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About Jayme: You all seem SO disappointed on Jayme turning out green. When we lynch SOLELY based on clues (which, by day 2, we basically have to rely on), we are bound to miss. What sucks is that we don't know for sure how Pyrr writes his clues, hopefully we can work better with the clues after our first mafioso lynch.
You all seem to think that we are doomed because we lynched a townie, an inactive one at that. I think it's a good result for day 2. The town found too suspicious of Jayme to just let him be, we would never be sure of him, and it's not like we had any other prime suspects (perhaps except iLoveKTF, but that was brought up too late).
This game will start to take shape on day 3 results, imo. We will probably have 3 more clues to go on, and a double lynch too. What I feel is important is that people don't jump to conclusions solely based on clues. We can't waste lynches now, we HAVE to connect clues and behavior, possibly also voting patterns if we find anything useful. What would be the best is that if any of you suspect someone, build a sure-fire case before presenting it, instead of just throwing accusations all over the place. Shikyo's post is a good example on building a case on iLoveKTF, which in my opinion is much stronger than any of the suspects we have had so far.
We all seem to think that one single word is a clue (crepuscular, Erlend Loe, zerg creep, slump etc.), I don't think that's how it works (but we can't know for sure until we confirm it, like I stated). I think there are mafia profiles that we need to work out, based on their appearance, their killing method, their attributes, etc.
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I'd like to take a moment to speak to the medics.
With the turn of events, please wait as long as possible before submitting your night action. Let the town discuss a bit before making your decision, instead of protecting someone you may find unneccessary or unwise to protect by the end of the night (for instance protecting iLoveKTF who may be getting modkilled).
The longer you wait with submitting an action (obviously do it before night time is going to end, don't try to stall the game), the more information you will have that can help you decide who you want to protect, or who you think the mafia will hit that night.
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Ok, it's finger pointing time. I've been working on a case for a while now, I didn't want to say anything until I had gathered more information, so please bear with me as I bring up old quotes and old arguments to try to form a behavior pattern of the suspect.
I accuse zeks of being the Godfather. I think that he is the person who is organizing the mafia kills, which would also make sense seeing how he is one of the most active persons in the thread. I'm going to divide this post into three parts, in order not to flood the entire page. I'm going to focus on behavior, because the voting patterns up till now are too weak to rely on, and there doesn't seem to be any blatantly obvious clues pointing to zeks (which would explain why he is taking risks). If needed be, I can bring these two points in to strengthen my case later on, as I do think there is SOME material to work with in those two departments as well.
WARNING! This post is going to be lengthy, but know that I worked alot on this, so I ask that you atleast skim through it to see if I'm onto something here. It COULD be vital for the town's gameplan.
+ Show Spoiler [Behavior] +The first piece of information I want to convey is two PM's I received from zeks before the night to day 2. These are unedited, except that I added a (nick) in front of each PM so it's easier to see who's saying what. This should, like any PM history, be read from the bottom to the top. + Show Spoiler [PM conversation] + (teks) I don't TRUST anyone to be honest. Not even you But I'm pretty positive that Shikyo isn't mafia. And JeeJee has had me convinced. Jury is still out on Jimtudor I guess - I don't trust him yet.
----------------------------------------- (zeks) Original Message: do you trust all 3 of - Shikyo, JimTudor and JeeJee?
----------------------------------------- (teks) Original Message: atm I'm suspecting Foolishness, Phelix and softer. Mostly based on laying low and votes though, it's hard to judge them with the low activity level we are having at the moment.. I really hope we manage to draw people out.
----------------------------------------- (zeks) Original Message: who are you suspecting behaviour wise?
At first, I was kind of wondering why he was asking me this all of a sudden, we hadn't talked any at all in PM's prior to this. But I had nothing to hide, I layed out who I suspected, he got the information, and I never heard from him again. What do I make of this? zeks thinks I'm a possible medic. He was asking around (it would be entirely possible that more of you received the same kind of PM's) to find out who the medics were least likely to be protecting. So in my case, I was suspicious of Foolishness, Phelix, softer and Jimtudor. Then what happens? Oh yeah, softer and Jimtudor dies. Yes, my suspicions were WAY off, but that's not the case here. If I was going to go on a stretch and assume that I was the only one he talked to, I would think that either Foolishness or Phelix got hit too that night, but it was either blocked by one of them being a veteran, or a medic. I'm thinking the first. Or maybe they just chose someone else randomly in order to not bring up too much suspicion, or they stacked hit's on one of the targets (Jimtudor?). Either way, two of my suspects died that night. I'm going to go over his posts now to point out any inconsistencies, irregularities or possible mafia behavior. + Show Spoiler [Quotes Part 1] +zeks' first post was made on page 8. On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote: I don't agree with lynching an inactive the first day. Since this is a newbie friendly game, those with blue roles might be more inclined to stay lurking since they know they have an important role and don't want to die so early. Oh what do you know, he's against lynching an inactive. What a surprise. What I have been seeing with new players is that his scenario doesn't fit at all. The inactive ones are, as I see it, usually townies who are disappointed in not getting a role, and feeling that they don't have anything to do, so they get bored with it. The new players who end up with a blue role tend to be more eager and active because they feel that they mean something. On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote: I remember when I was a medic (many times) all I thought about was staying alive so I can at least be able to contribute with protections each night - thus I stayed quiet and only communicated through PMs. I probably should have gone over his behavior in previous games before making this post, but I haven't. I'm sorry. If anyone wants to do that go right ahead. Either way, that sure isn't how he's playing now. I'm assuming this means that he has changed attitude, and no longer feels that this is the best way to play a blue role, if that is the case I would think that he, as a useful town aligned person, would encourage the new blue players to stand up for themselves, not just explaining why they would be inactive. The other possibility is of course, that he isn't a blue. Then, in his first post, he also made his statement that he would be running for mayor. His plans are not anything spectacular, but there are tidbits that can be discussed here, for instance the fact that he is opposing the vigi plan to get a confirmed townie: On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote: I think Crate brought up a great point about the trouble of getting a confirmed towny. The vigi plan has some flaws though. The vigi can't roleclaim and announce his hit to the whole town because a mafia could just do the same. I noticed in the day post that the mafia don't have names. So we wouldn't really know if a new vigi has come out and performed his announced hit. So he is basically disregarding the whole idea because the mafia doesn't have names (why would they have names? Have they ever had names in any previous games?). He is completely disregarding the fact that if a red player was hit, only a vigi could be behind it, and that vigi should have no problems with both pointing out the clues leading to himself, and get the support of the people he reached out to prior to his hit. What I make of this is that he is against getting a confirmed townie through this method, instead of pointing out the flaws and suggesting another way of doing it, he just denies the whole idea. Next, he is opposed to getting a confirmed townie through medic protection, too. He states the following: On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote: Nowhere does it say that the medic will know the role of the person he has saved. I agree that it is more likely for a medic to save a mafia hit than a vigi hit, but as a medic in previous games myself, it's pretty hard to judge who is going to get hit every night (that or I was a horrible medic lol). Also, in the less likely case of saving a mafia from a vigi - the medic may mistrust the saved mafia for a good guy. It's true that if a medic protected a mafia from a vigi hit, there would be no way to know if that target was mafia or not. But he is completely disregarding the fact that vigis can't hit on night 1. He, as an experienced player, should know this. He is also going on about how hard it is to block a hit, blabla, we all know that. Obviously this plan wasn't meant to be a "hey let's just block a mafia hit, then we have our confirmed townie!" but rather IF a medic blocked a mafia hit ON THE FIRST NIGHT, that medic would be safe to talk to the townie in question. So zeks goes on to form his confirmed townie plan based on the supposed flaws of the medic and vigi plans: On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote: In the case that we do not get a successful block, then we should move on to another plan that I am suggesting: plan C.
c) Detective role-check Depending on how far we get with the medic plan, we might have to consider the ultimatum which is to have a DT rolecheck someone - which would be the safest way, unless you manage to unluckily land on the godfather; then theres no way back. The chance of landing on the godfather is slim though, so I deem this the safest plan and most viable after using trying the medic plan. What a surprise! He wants a DT to rolecheck "someone" and then roleclaim "safely" to that person. Now, who could this trustable person be.. Hmm.. Maybe he should just nominate himself, since he was the one coming with the idea, that won't be suspicious at all, right? We'll get back to this later, since this is a story that continues later in the thread. What is interesting is that he mentions this in his very first post in the thread. Clearly focusing on what he thinks is the best idea, since the chance of landing on the godfather is slim. That makes the end of his election speech. The rest of it was the same things the other candidates promised, let's kill all red and use double lynches blabla. So the thread goes on, and zeks encourages people to read his election speech. He also helps the town by making an inactive list, but this is something literally anyone can do, so I'm getting the feeling that he did this to show the town that he can contribute, and to warrant voting on him. If he was the mafia candidate, why did he not get elected, or why did he not get close? I think that the mafia either waited to see if he could draw any votes (which he tried desperately by several times asking people to read his platform), or they threw him a few votes to try to start a bandwagon. Neither of the cases worked out for them, so they basically abandoned ship when it failed, that's why you didn't see him getting 6 mafia votes. I still believe that one of the election candidates were mafia, and since Jimtudor turned blue, and I so far have no reason to suspect Shikyo or JeeJee, this all adds up. + Show Spoiler [Quotes Part 2] +On May 20 2009 02:49 zeks wrote: To be safe I suggest we try to find clues that may point to the inactives so we can have a better shot at hitting a red. I am also supportive if we were to lynch Jayme based on clues. Captain Obvious to the rescue! Again he is "contributing" to the town by stating something we all know already. Of course we should go on clues in addition to lynching an inactive. The fact that he wanted to lynch Jayme also corresponds with the Godfather view, since he turned out to be a townie. After that, he makes his first (in my opinion) real contribution to the town, by cooking up some clues pointing to therapy. My theory is that he saw the Jayme case as sure-fire enough that he would be lynched on day 2, because he already had so many clues attached to him, that he decided to bring in someone new. This is not any evidence by itself, but therapy being a townie also adds up to the equation. Then, the medic list are being formed. zeks is placed on all of them, despite not really contributing to the town apart from running for mayor and forming a clue pattern to therapy. Good job! You had me fooled as well. I guess if there is anyone who should be accused of posting loads of fluff it should be you, not Shikyo. On May 21 2009 03:14 zeks wrote: I just hope that the medics are listening right now and hopefully they won't deviate from the plan. Of course you would hope that, you wouldn't want the medics to protect your targets, after all. On May 21 2009 13:43 zeks wrote: We only had two deaths tonight, softer and Jimtudor. Obviously there are only two possible scenarios:
a) Stacked hits on either softer or Jim. b) Someone got saved. - I think this is more likely, and in this case, I believe someone on the medic list got saved tonight. No. Obviously, you are lying. As an experienced player, you knew about the possibility that a veteran got hit, and that it would be more likely than stacking hits on softer or Jim, who basically hadn't contributed at all. If anyone were to be stacked it would have been someone like softer or Judge, or even you. Luckily, crate calls him on it instantly, so no harm done. Dun dun dun! This brings us to my punchline. The continuation of his DT rolecheck plan. + Show Spoiler [DT Rolecheck Plan] +On May 21 2009 23:52 zeks wrote: I think the vigi plan has just too many flaws. The medic plan is viable and I really believe that someone got saved last night versus a vet taking a hit. Now, how far the town web has grown I don't know.
But if things get desperate and still nothing gets done, then we should go with the DT rolecheck. I think this is probably the safest plan but obviously has a great drawback of losing one rolecheck. I am willing to step up for examination, that is, you'd have to believe in me not being Godfather.
And so far there have been no clues against me afaik, but of course I'm not free from suspicion one bit. Should we try this? Up to you two DT's to decide. (Of course, if this does happen I hope only one of you rolechecks me) Basically this is a repeat of his plan in the election platform. He is probably correct that there are no clues pointing to him, but the mere idea of suggesting himself for this idea makes this that more suspicious. If he were to suggest the idea, then let's say, have the town vote on who they wanted to act as the mouthpiece, maybe it wouldn't be so blatantly obvious what is going on here. zeks has that much belief in the town not thinking he is the godfather that he is nice enough to step up! Aww, doesn't that get your eyes wet. So nice of him! Once again, he fooled me, but thankfully there were other more experienced players who quickly figured out the risks of his plan. chaoser, Judge, Shikyo, props to you! This is going to be the end of my behavior analysis. I could go on by talking about his consistent denial of the vigi plan, which at the moment is one of the best plans we got, but this post is lengthy enough as is.
So that's it. By sharing my case with you, I ask that zeks is removed from the medic list while we decide whether or not my case is strong enough. Hopefully we can come to an agreement before the night is over, and if needed be, he can be placed back on the list.
I am basically laying my spot in this game on the table here, if zeks turns out innocent I take full responsibility and will let you lynch me if you see it fit. But do know that I wouldn't accuse an active and experienced player without gathering what I see as plenty of proof. This is all up to you, town, what do you think of my case?
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Edit: I meant to remove the part where I said "I'm going to divide this post into three parts, in order not to flood the entire page." I was going to do that at first, but it got so long that I decided to skip it for now, and focus on behavior. Sorry about the confusion.
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On May 23 2009 21:28 So no fek wrote:I think this is a very solid behavioral analysis, and I honestly hope that it turns out to be accurate in the end. I haven't really contributed too much, because I'm terrible at both clue analysis, and behavioral analysis, however, I'd like to add that there are currently 5 mafia kills (including the mods), and if you were to assume that it's 1 mafia per kill (which is likely, given that people die at the same time in some of the posts) and Pyrry is rotating through the mafia (meaning that a mafia won't get a second clue until every other mafia has a clue), then there are currently clues pointing at 5/7 mafia. That means that if Zeks is mafia, there's a very very good chance that there's already a clue pointed at him. So, I checked his profile. Not really much there. He's from Canada, has "@ University of Waterloo", and states that winning is the only thing. I couldn't match any of those to any of the clues, so I took the next step and googled his name. And there we go. http://www.zeks.com/Compressed Air solutions. Show nested quote +Without warning, his windshield shattered and a wave of glass ripped through LTT's face. Passing out from blood loss, LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time. With no previous warning (meaning LTT likely didn't see anything), his windshield shattered in, with considerable force (to have ripped into his face like that). I'm honestly on the fence about this clue pointing towards Zeks. It's so very obvious that this could have been caused by a blast of compressed air, and that's why I'm on the fence. Day 1 clues are supposed to be hard, nearly impossible to solve, but this was so easy. The only reason I could see Pyrry using a clue this easy (if it does in fact point to Zeks), is that it's a noobie game, and not very much was expected of us. So take it as you will, with a grain of salt. I was merely linking a possible clue with someone suspected because their behavior is pretty far off.
Yeah if I were to link possible clues to zeks that would be the one I would choose as well. I also did some research on Waterloo / Napoleon but I couldn't really find any matches. If zeks is involved in any of these clues, I'd think it'd be the compressed air one.
What I think of the clues so far is that there are 5 clues pointing to 4 persons. I also think that zeks isn't pointed to in the clues because of the risk he took on the DT rolecheck plan, and I guess it could be seen as plausible for Pyrr to clue to the mafia first, then the GF? I dunno.
I will make a post of my clue analysis soon, but it's really hard to fill in the blanks before day 3, so I don't really have all that much, and I am in no way sure that any of it is any good. Which is why I'm focusing on behavior patterns atm. I sure hope the next day post gives us some clues we can use to cross referance.
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wow it honestly didn't seem as you was going to reply I'll answer you after I'm done with my clue analysis. I'm also looking forward to seeing yours.
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You're right zeks, there are many people here from North America, so I find that there's also ALOT for me to catch up on after I've slept, since that's primetime for you guys
And yeah that post from JeeJee was great.
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OK, I'm going to post my clue analysis now. I feel that I learned a lot from MTF's clue analysis, So I'm going to borrow his template and try to work out some mafia profiles. When we know for sure how Pyrr writes his clues, I am going to do another analysis based on that.
I have bolded the parts of the day posts that I feel is relevant for these profiles.
Mafia A and B:
+ Show Spoiler [Mafia A and B] +Mafia A and Mafia B seem very much alike. If it hadn't been for the fact that the murders should have happened simultaneously, I would probably have combined these two suspects into one, giving us three clues on one person. Since this isn't possible, I'll add the day two clues to both of these profiles for now. Mafia A:+ Show Spoiler [Mafia A] +Day 1 Post: Behind Pyrrhuloxia, a figure crept closer. When Pyrrhuloxia lifted his hands from the railing to stir his decaffeinated coffee with a drumstick, the figure pushed him from behind. Pyrry flew over the sixth floor ledge to his death. Day 2 Post: Walking through the park in the darkness, Softer began to think he was being stalked, so he hid in the bushes. The figure that had been following him began to search the thicket, and Softer panicked and tried to bolt towards the park's exit. However, before Softer could get away, his stalker whipped him forcefully in the back. Softer flew to the ground, where vicious stomps to the back of the neck took his life. Notes: - "A figure", possibly not a human, so far unseen - Attacking from behind, possibly wielding a whip - Victims stomped to death, or fell to death, unable to take a look at the attacker Fitting suspects: - chaoser. Stealthy ninjas attacking from behind, not being seen? Plausible. But the killing methods, involving stomping, makes this kind of farfetched.
- omG.[RaYnE]. I'm basing this on the character Rayne in Blood Rayne, which I think is the most plausible link to omG.[RaYnE]. Quote from Wikipedia: "Due to that fact that Rayne was raised to be a powerful vampiric assassin that isn't supposed to show any sign of weakness to her opponents, she can seem cold, aloof, brooding, and even callous at times." The downside to this theory is that she doesn't seem to use a whip, on the contrary, she uses double blades.
- teks. Yeah, I'm not going to exclude myself, I have nothing to hide. I have a picture of Darkwing Duck in my profile. This would fit to the "figure" not being confirmed to be a human, but as far as I know, he doesn't use a whip. And no, the rope on the picture is attached to the helicopter, it would be a very farfetched link to this suspect, in my opinion.
Conclusion so farIf we retract the day 2 clues from this suspect, all of the suspects on the lists really make more sense because we can disregard the whip. But without the day 2 clue, we really have nothing at all to go on, except the killing method. A very stealthy being who knows how to get the job done without neither uttering a word or giving up his/her/its identity. The word figure implies that none of the suspects actually saw their murderer, so their physical identity still seems to be very much unknown. Mafia B:+ Show Spoiler [Mafia B] +Day 1 Post
Meanwhile, downstairs, Qatol was using the Triumvirate Building's spacious archery range for target practice. As he looked down to reload, another figure crossed the room from the other side. The mafioso crept behind Qatol and took out his knife. Qatol never shot another arrow. Day 2 Post:
Walking through the park in the darkness, Softer began to think he was being stalked, so he hid in the bushes. The figure that had been following him began to search the thicket, and Softer panicked and tried to bolt towards the park's exit. However, before Softer could get away, his stalker whipped him forcefully in the back. Softer flew to the ground, where vicious stomps to the back of the neck took his life. Notes: - A very fast (and perhaps stealthy) person, who is able to cross the "spacious" archery range in such a short amount of time (either that or Qatol just suck at reloading) - Wielding a knife and possibly a whip All I get from this is a being that is very fast and using weapons. I'm getting the feeling that we are dealing with a trained assassin/ninja or something like that. I feel that this suspects fits better with the day 2 posts than Mafia A, but we really don't know much about this person either, except for the weapons and physical speed/stealth. My suspect list: - omG.[RaYnE]. Again, Rayne from BloodRayne. I don't really know how fast she is, or wether or not she has a knife or a whip, but she does use weapons.
- chaoser. Again, chaoser is connected to this via the ninja clue. I'd probably rank him higher on the suspect list for this one than RaYnE.
Mafia C:
+ Show Spoiler [Mafia C] +Day 1 Post:
In the parking lot, LTT, the love child of the late L and Samsung Khan's captain, read an Erlend Loe novel in his Audi sports car. Without warning, his windshield shattered and a wave of glass ripped through LTT's face. Passing out from blood loss, LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time. Notes: - Something or someone able to shatter a windshield - Passing out from blood loss implies that the attacker did not finish what he started, possibly leaving LTT before he was confirmed dead. Sloppiness or confidence in his ability? Maybe the attacker doesn't have any direct physical abilities? Suspect list:- zeks. Credit to Shikyo and So no fek for this one. www.zeks.com is a company who produces compressed air pumps, which could possibly be used to shatter the windshield.
- BWdero. He has a picture of the comic character Black Bolt. Black Bolt's ability is this (quoted from wikipedia): "He has a super sonic scream that can destroy almost anything, even if he whispers." Yeah, that's right. This guy is super powerful, but I imagine a whisper could take care of the windshield here. If he does show up again on day 3, it should be very easy to link the clues together.
- iLoveKTF. This has also been brought up before. It's the sound waves in his profile, a picture of the cover of some album, it's not really important. It's still sound waves. I imagine that if Pyrr were to write clues about iLoveKTF, a character who uses sound waves to kill would be plausible.
Mafia D:
+ Show Spoiler [Mafia D] +This is, together with Suspect C, in theory the easiest to analyze. Day 2 Post
His door bell rang. "Who could it be at this hour?," he thought. A salesman in a flashy tie greeted Jimtudor from his welcome mat and began his pitch. Jimtudor tried to close the door in the man's face, but the man swiftly jammed a metal bar in the doorway and used it to pry the door open, then bash Jimtudor in the head till he died. Notes:- A civilized man who uses the doorbell. - At this hour? Very early in the morning perhaps? I'm not sure if this is relevant information. - Salesman in a flashy tie trying to sell something - may have become upset when Jimtudor didn't want to buy anything/listen to him. - Wielding a metal bar Suspect list: [list] [*] I10f: I believe it was Shikyo who told us about Britney Spears' perfume, Believe? Anyway, it fits to the salesman profile, him trying to sell Britney's perfume. [*] Ra.Xor.2: I'm not going to quote his whole profile information, but it's basically what seems to be a missionary speech, so I'm thinking that the salesman could actually be trying to convert Jimtudor, or make him believe in God, whatever. So a religious fanatic who got angry when Jimtudor tried to shut the door before he could finish his pitch, seems plausible.
So that's basically what I've got so far. I hope that day 3 will bring us more clues so I can try to fill out the profiles more, and we're still missing some mafia in the clues. I also do think that it's a mistake of us to try to link people with oneword clues like "crepuscular" "Erlend Loe" or "drumstick" (yeah I know that one was quickly disregarded, but still).
In my opinion we should be focusing on the bigger picture in the day posts, trying to build profiles of the attackers assuming that this is how Pyrr is writing his clues.
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On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: Town is in utter chaos. Massive finger pointing at almost every suspect possible. Reading things out of context. Drawing implications out of the air from the slightest behaviour changes. All assumptions without any solid evidence. We're basically unable to agree on anything. Someone comes up with a long post and boom I'm now a suspect. But I guess Teks you've done a damn good job on me.
Well I'm trying my best to avoid this massive finger pointing, any real accusations I make (such as this one on you), I make after long consideration and a lot of reading. If this accusation is inaccurate, I'm sorry, there is no way for me to be sure of anything before they are dead. :/
And this "solid evidence" you speak of, what would that be? Clues? Too early to point out a sure clue at this point imo. Just see what happened to Jayme that everyone was so sure of. Voting patterns? Everyone has agreed on every vote we have had up until now. Nothing to read there.
What remains is behavior, which I have done my best to objectively view in the eyes of a mafia, and it all came together. If that isn't strong enough proof for you, I'm sorry. I don't know what else I could have done, really.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: Teks, do you think you're so good that if I were a GF I'd pick people off your list? Your analysis has barely any good content and usually you're just restating other peoples points. I don't think I'm good at all. This is my first game, I'm just trying to be productive and helpful. I know that this is basically a list of other people's points, that's what makes a case. I can't invent points other people have said before me, but they still count.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: Why would a GF kill people you suspect? If anything if I were a GF I'd leave them alive because I know they are green, and if you were town of course you'd be in shit trying to figure out if they're green and I could kill off others.
You'd leave them alive because you know they are green OR blue. You can't know that they aren't important to the town.
If you believed that I was a medic, my suspect list would be a good place to start picking victims, because I'm not very likely to protect them. Is it a coincidence that 2 of the 4 people I said I suspected died that night, and the third could also be on that list? Possibly. There's no way to be sure, the point is that it all adds up.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: Why would I think you're a medic? Wouldn't I ask who do you trust rather than who do you suspect? It's true I've been asking about people's suspicions, I won't lie.
The reason I think you picked people off of my list is because you thought I was a medic. I don't know why you would think that, but it was the option that made sense when I thought about why you're asking me these questions. Asking who I trust wouldn't give the same results, even if I trust someone they're not necessarily likely to get hit, or likely for me to protect.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: I asked you guys a question, you answered it. If you asked me a question, I answered it too. Teks you never asked me anything, and you're suspicious so why do I have to keep the PMs going?
You're the one who PMed me out of the blue, suddenly asking those questions, then after getting answers, not talking to me again. If you think I'm suspicious, why would you even talk to me at all?
It's possible that this is how you play the game, by PMing many different people to try to understand where they stand and what they think. If this is the case, I'm sure I'm not the only one you have been talking to in PM. This would be a good time for other people to confirm this, did anyone else receive similar questions?
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: Show nested quote +So he is basically disregarding the whole idea because the mafia doesn't have names (why would they have names? Have they ever had names in any previous games?). He is completely disregarding the fact that if a red player was hit, only a vigi could be behind it, and that vigi should have no problems with both pointing out the clues leading to himself, and get the support of the people he reached out to prior to his hit. What I make of this is that he is against getting a confirmed townie through this method, instead of pointing out the flaws and suggesting another way of doing it, he just denies the whole idea. Okay, I admit my mistake there. I still disagree with the vigi plan because of how hard it is to orchestrate it. And yes if you were wondering, in past mafia's people had names. No I am not against a confirmed townie, because I suggested the DT-Rolecheck idea, and I listed pros and cons for all 3 ideas.
I didn't say you were against a confirmed townie, but that you were against a confirmed townie through that method (the vigi plan). The DT-Rolecheck idea is in another league, as you were basically stating that you wanted to act as the mouthpiece, which would obviously be in favor of the mafia if you were to be the godfather. As a mafia associated player, you would be opposed to getting a confirmed townie except if that townie were to be you. If your DT rolecheck plan was legit it would seem alot more sincere if you had suggested to organize a town vote on who the mouthpiece was going to be, instead of just stating that you wanted to do it.
And btw, maybe we can stop calling the medic and vigi plans for.. well, plans. They're not really plans because there will always be an element of luck involved. It was more in the likes of "if these things happen, it would be great", not "hey let's do this", except for the part where we encourage the vigi's to message a few people before hitting their target(s).
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote:Show nested quote +It's true that if a medic protected a mafia from a vigi hit, there would be no way to know if that target was mafia or not. But he is completely disregarding the fact that vigis can't hit on night 1. He, as an experienced player, should know this. He is also going on about how hard it is to block a hit, blabla, we all know that. Obviously this plan wasn't meant to be a "hey let's just block a mafia hit, then we have our confirmed townie!" but rather IF a medic blocked a mafia hit ON THE FIRST NIGHT, that medic would be safe to talk to the townie in question. Here is what I said: Show nested quote +...so I deem this the safest plan and most viable after using trying the medic plan. Page 8. I was in support of the medic plan, in fact I wanted that plan first before using my DT-rolecheck plan.
Just to be clear, I quoted you on that too, you make it seem like I left it out. Anyway, I got the feeling that you were so opposed to the chances of us getting a medic block, and you didn't even mention that vigi's can't hit on day 1, so to me you were basically saying WHEN we are done trying the medic plan.
You're saying you were in support of the medic plan? Doesn't seem that way to me. 1) You're saying this: "Nowhere does it say that the medic will know the role of the person he has saved." 2) Then, you go on to state this: "as a medic in previous games myself, it's pretty hard to judge who is going to get hit every night" 3) "Also, in the less likely case of saving a mafia from a vigi - the medic may mistrust the saved mafia for a good guy." You're right, you did point out all the flaws. You just didn't point out the good things about it. That being that the first night is vigi free, and that a vigi (hopefully) would state in the thread that he was blocked after making a hit, so that no medic's would trust the one who was protected.
Normally, this wouldn't be a big deal, but for an experienced player, I would have expected you to point these things out.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote:Show nested quote +...pointing out the flaws and suggesting another way of doing it, he just denies the whole idea. Show nested quote +So zeks goes on to form his confirmed townie plan based on the supposed flaws of the medic and vigi plans: Don't contradict yourself.
Ok, I shouldn't have said "denied the whole idea", that was exaggerating. Sorry.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: As for my pitch for mayor: If I were mafia do you know how dangerous it would be for me to run for mayor that late? First I'd be sticking my head out for suspect and second I'm probably not going to win. If I had pleaded my case for mayor earlier (around when JeeJee or Shikyo did theirs) I think I'd have a legit shot for a spot. I ran for mayor so town can see other options: I never expected to win at all. How could I win when I had my election speech as first post? I wasn't involved until page 8 when things have already boiled up.
Any mafia who wanted in at that point was going to have to stick their head out. As I said early in the thread, I would think that the mafia would take time to organize before running for mayor. And there are always late candidates, it can't be expected that people will be online at the exact time the game starts. There were candidates after you as well (.. I think? ), that doesn't necessarily mean that person is red. If I was unclear in my original post, I'll try to state it clearer this time: I don't think that any person joining the election race is mafia. But there would be many reasons for mafia to join in that late. That's all.
Show nested quote +Captain Obvious to the rescue! Again he is "contributing" to the town by stating something we all know already. Of course we should go on clues in addition to lynching an inactive. The fact that he wanted to lynch Jayme also corresponds with the Godfather view, since he turned out to be a townie.
After that, he makes his first (in my opinion) real contribution to the town, by cooking up some clues pointing to therapy. My theory is that he saw the Jayme case as sure-fire enough that he would be lynched on day 2, because he already had so many clues attached to him, that he decided to bring in someone new. This is not any evidence by itself, but therapy being a townie also adds up to the equation.
Then, the medic list are being formed. zeks is placed on all of them, despite not really contributing to the town apart from running for mayor and forming a clue pattern to therapy. Good job! You had me fooled as well. I guess if there is anyone who should be accused of posting loads of fluff it should be you, not Shikyo. Why don't you find me someone who suggested lynching an inactive AND with clues pointing to them? People were agreeing on me because I came up with the idea, while people like you only thought of lynching based on inactivity OR clues.
I believe you when you say that you came up with the idea, my point was that it's explanatory. Oh, is inactivity+clues better than just inactivity or just clues? Who would have thought. I guess no one mentioned it because they didn't think it was necessary to state something that obvious. At that point, we hadn't even started (seriously) analyzing the clues.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: I'm placed on all the medic lists because I am trusted by the town. My suggestion for therapy was a reply to BWDero when he wanted a name out there - so I gave him one. And Shikyo was pretty quick to support me without any reason.
You're placed on all the medic lists because you are active, and active people are good for the town. Just like me. For instance, Jimtudor was on the medic lists, yet many people didn't trust him. He was on my list as well, and I said to you in PM that I didn't trust him yet. The point is that active people are better to protect than inactive ones. Why Shikyo supported you isn't up to me to respond to, but for the record, I agreed on you at that point too. It was the best idea at that time, which probably says a lot about how little we had to go on at that time.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: Show nested quote +I guess if there is anyone who should be accused of posting loads of fluff it should be you, not Shikyo. Trying to protect Shikyo while attacking me at the same time?
Busted? ^^ Nah, I was just remembering someone using the same phrase I was going to use, "posting a lot of fluff and no real content".
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: Show nested quote +Of course you would hope that, you wouldn't want the medics to protect your targets, after all. The plan being the medic list? Yes. Was this not what you meant? Because the quote I used was in the middle of the discussion of the medic list.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: Show nested quote +No. Obviously, you are lying. As an experienced player, you knew about the possibility that a veteran got hit, and that it would be more likely than stacking hits on softer or Jim, who basically hadn't contributed at all. If anyone were to be stacked it would have been someone like softer or Judge, or even you.
Luckily, crate calls him on it instantly, so no harm done. I didn't lie. I will admit to this mistake that I missed the veteran possibility. If this is enough to warrant me guilty then so be it, but that was just my misunderstanding.
Ok. I probably shouldn't have said lied, but you were so sure in your case that the two possibilities you brought up were "obviously" the only scenarios. You being an experienced player, it's weird that you didn't think of a veteran hit. Of course, this alone isn't any proof, anyone can forget something or post too hastily. But it all adds up, which is what I'm getting at.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: Show nested quote +Basically this is a repeat of his plan in the election platform. He is probably correct that there are no clues pointing to him, but the mere idea of suggesting himself for this idea makes this that more suspicious. If he were to suggest the idea, then let's say, have the town vote on who they wanted to act as the mouthpiece, maybe it wouldn't be so blatantly obvious what is going on here. zeks has that much belief in the town not thinking he is the godfather that he is nice enough to step up! Aww, doesn't that get your eyes wet. So nice of him!
Once again, he fooled me, but thankfully there were other more experienced players who quickly figured out the risks of his plan. chaoser, Judge, Shikyo, props to you! What have chaoser, Judge, Shikyo figured out that I didn't say in my own plan? Do tell. I was the first person to bring up the godfather possibility.
They encouraged DT's NOT to roleclaim to you, because they didn't want to take that chance. You, on the other hand, was obviously willing to take it (which would also make sense if you were townie aligned, I'll give you that). The fact that you brought up the godfather possibility doesn't mean that you aren't one. If you hadn't mentioned it, you would have been called on it right away.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: I don't give a FLAMING FUCK if I'm removed from the medic list. The medic list meant shit from day 1. It's just a stupid list of who posts the most (see the correlation of most posts -> medic list? I do too!). I didn't feel ANY safer than I would be not on the medic list. Wow. Strong words! Anyway, if that's how you feel I guess we all agree on removing you from the medic list then. If you are green or blue, the mafia will probably use this opportunity to try to take down one of the most active players in this thread, since you probably won't be protected tonight. At this point, if you make it through the night, I'm afraid the suspicion on you won't be any less. I'm sure you also know that.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote:
If you look at teks arguments with quotes on me, he chooses the stuff he wants to quote, and leaves out the rest because it contradicts his arguments. Read my posts again and you'll see different than what he has posed.
That wasn't my intention at all, and I'm sorry you took it that way. This time I have made sure to quote everything you said. I didn't quote EVERYTHING you wrote because that would be too much irrelevant information, like I said, you did post alot of fluff. I was trying to pick out the important parts of all your posts. You pointed out one of my contradictions, I'll give you that. Sometimes I use too strong words.
I too will join in on your encouragement: Read his posts again. By all means, read the whole thing if that helps you guys take a stand in this matter. Believe it or not, but this isn't some devious plan to frame you.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: Show nested quote +I am basically laying my spot in this game on the table here, if zeks turns out innocent I take full responsibility and will let you lynch me if you see it fit. But do know that I wouldn't accuse an active and experienced player without gathering what I see as plenty of proof. This is all up to you, town, what do you think of my case? Lol and the cherry on top: the ultimatum to everyone. By the time you get lynched it'd be night 4, and if you are TOWN like you say you are, then we'd probably have hit 0 mafia till then, which is pretty much game over.
I don't want to be lynched. I was stating that not as an ultimatum, but to say that I believe in my case, and to state that I am indeed risking myself by accusing you, someone who actually fights back, as opposed to the inactive ones we have been lynching. If I manage to sway people to believe me, getting you lynched followed by you turning green/blue, I'm sure people won't be happy with me. And I wouldn't blame them for that, this was my goal after all. They will surely think that I am red, and make clue connections all over the place. If that is what the town sees fit at that point, so be it.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: What are you trying to pull an iloveKTF? Except you're smarter than him I admit. You're not going to go down that easily right? You're going to "take responsibility" on a failed lynch, rather than requesting a mod kill.
You're just trying to make it seem like you have nothing to lose, putting your life on the line, empathizing with the majority of the town.
I'm not trying to pull anything, and I won't request a mod kill. I just wrote it the way I saw it, these are serous accusations being made to an active and experienced player. If I'm wrong I'll take responsibility for my errors. That's all I'm saying.
If it makes you feel better, how about this: If zeks dies and he is not red, please don't lynch me even though I was fighting for this case. Try to understand why I came to my conclusion, then choose whether or not you think I'm red.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: That ends my rebuttal for teks. If you want me to cover anything I didn't, by all means feel free to call me out again. I will be following up with my clue analysis later on today or tomorrow, and I assure you, mine will be WAY MORE spectacular than what teks has told you.
Phew, finally done answering. There's not really anything else I can bring up at this point, except that I'm looking forward to seeing your clue analysis, especially after your promise on it being WAY MORE spectacular. Can't wait
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On May 24 2009 03:44 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2009 23:13 teks wrote: I saw in the other mafia game going on that they were talking about rolechecking the losers of the election, as it would be a big chance that atleast one of them would be mafia. Interesting that you were the first person to bring this up way back on day 1. Let's assume for a second that at least one of the candidates that ran for office in our game is mafia (a relatively reasonable assumption). Now all that's left is to figure out who it is. Say zeks is indeed mafia like everyone is claiming. What does he have to gain from killing JimTudor the first night? Only the fact that a townsperson is dead. zeks has played in past mafia games so we know he is not a first timer and has some idea of what's going on. It is very common to rolecheck and suspect losers of the election. If he killed JimTudor during the night, that would make him prime suspect for this case (as we have just seen). Honestly what a stupid move on his part. He kills the competition (JimTudor was suspected by many many people), now he's the only one left that looks suspicious. Do you think zeks is this stupid (gj crate)? Seems unlikely.
Yes that is a reasonable assumption that zeks would know that he would be a suspect. But also consider what I said and what they were discussing in the other game, rolechecking the losers. I'm sure I don't have to remind you that the godfather is immune to rolechecks. After rolechecking and disregarding zeks, the way to suspecting the elected people - Shikyo and JeeJee, would be much shorter than if they had to work through Jimtudor as well. And to the mafia, I'm sure this town would seem gullible enough to believe that zeks isn't the GF, and with no clues leading to him on day 1, they could be feeling safe that he wouldn't be found out.
Either that, or maybe he just saw this as a good chance to get rid of Jimtudor before he got to prove his innocence, because he could have been a useful person to the town.
By the way, did noone read through my clue analysis? Was it that useless?
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On May 24 2009 04:34 SugiuraMidori wrote: First... I want to thank teks for that well laid out clue analysis, and even noting things that I had not researched.. really nice job.. just be careful the mafia doesn't get too scared of you and remove you from assisting us :/
Yay! I'm so paranoid that I actually think I'm dying every night. I made my clue analysis now instead of tomorrow because in the case that I die tonight, I wouldn't have left anything unsaid. Hopefully I'll live through the night (Hi medics) so that I can keep working on it tomorrow. Day 3 clues should be nice
Good going on the distance analysis by the way. I didn't notice that. And yes I SHOULD treat the mafia as distant, since that's what they are to me ^^
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While I'm happy with the effort Shikyo is putting in to this, I have to say that I would like to see some more from JeeJee.
By the way, I propose a new medic list:
- crate
- vx70GTOJudgexv
- teks
- SugiuraMidori
- Foolishness
- ydg or chaoser
I'm not responsible for the final list, but this would be my suggestion.
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Yeah I didn't even mention any clues leading to zeks in my post because frankly, if they are any, they are way too weak to base anything on.
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On May 24 2009 06:58 ydg wrote:Show nested quote +On May 23 2009 23:34 teks wrote:OK, I'm going to post my clue analysis now. I feel that I learned a lot from MTF's clue analysis, So I'm going to borrow his template and try to work out some mafia profiles. When we know for sure how Pyrr writes his clues, I am going to do another analysis based on that. I have bolded the parts of the day posts that I feel is relevant for these profiles. Mafia A and B:+ Show Spoiler [Mafia A and B] +Mafia A and Mafia B seem very much alike. If it hadn't been for the fact that the murders should have happened simultaneously, I would probably have combined these two suspects into one, giving us three clues on one person. Since this isn't possible, I'll add the day two clues to both of these profiles for now. Mafia A:+ Show Spoiler [Mafia A] +Day 1 Post: Behind Pyrrhuloxia, a figure crept closer. When Pyrrhuloxia lifted his hands from the railing to stir his decaffeinated coffee with a drumstick, the figure pushed him from behind. Pyrry flew over the sixth floor ledge to his death. Day 2 Post: Walking through the park in the darkness, Softer began to think he was being stalked, so he hid in the bushes. The figure that had been following him began to search the thicket, and Softer panicked and tried to bolt towards the park's exit. However, before Softer could get away, his stalker whipped him forcefully in the back. Softer flew to the ground, where vicious stomps to the back of the neck took his life. Notes: - "A figure", possibly not a human, so far unseen - Attacking from behind, possibly wielding a whip - Victims stomped to death, or fell to death, unable to take a look at the attacker Fitting suspects: - chaoser. Stealthy ninjas attacking from behind, not being seen? Plausible. But the killing methods, involving stomping, makes this kind of farfetched.
- omG.[RaYnE]. I'm basing this on the character Rayne in Blood Rayne, which I think is the most plausible link to omG.[RaYnE]. Quote from Wikipedia: "Due to that fact that Rayne was raised to be a powerful vampiric assassin that isn't supposed to show any sign of weakness to her opponents, she can seem cold, aloof, brooding, and even callous at times." The downside to this theory is that she doesn't seem to use a whip, on the contrary, she uses double blades.
- teks. Yeah, I'm not going to exclude myself, I have nothing to hide. I have a picture of Darkwing Duck in my profile. This would fit to the "figure" not being confirmed to be a human, but as far as I know, he doesn't use a whip. And no, the rope on the picture is attached to the helicopter, it would be a very farfetched link to this suspect, in my opinion.
Conclusion so farIf we retract the day 2 clues from this suspect, all of the suspects on the lists really make more sense because we can disregard the whip. But without the day 2 clue, we really have nothing at all to go on, except the killing method. A very stealthy being who knows how to get the job done without neither uttering a word or giving up his/her/its identity. The word figure implies that none of the suspects actually saw their murderer, so their physical identity still seems to be very much unknown. Mafia B:+ Show Spoiler [Mafia B] +Day 1 Post
Meanwhile, downstairs, Qatol was using the Triumvirate Building's spacious archery range for target practice. As he looked down to reload, another figure crossed the room from the other side. The mafioso crept behind Qatol and took out his knife. Qatol never shot another arrow. Day 2 Post:
Walking through the park in the darkness, Softer began to think he was being stalked, so he hid in the bushes. The figure that had been following him began to search the thicket, and Softer panicked and tried to bolt towards the park's exit. However, before Softer could get away, his stalker whipped him forcefully in the back. Softer flew to the ground, where vicious stomps to the back of the neck took his life. Notes: - A very fast (and perhaps stealthy) person, who is able to cross the "spacious" archery range in such a short amount of time (either that or Qatol just suck at reloading) - Wielding a knife and possibly a whip All I get from this is a being that is very fast and using weapons. I'm getting the feeling that we are dealing with a trained assassin/ninja or something like that. I feel that this suspects fits better with the day 2 posts than Mafia A, but we really don't know much about this person either, except for the weapons and physical speed/stealth. My suspect list: - omG.[RaYnE]. Again, Rayne from BloodRayne. I don't really know how fast she is, or wether or not she has a knife or a whip, but she does use weapons.
- chaoser. Again, chaoser is connected to this via the ninja clue. I'd probably rank him higher on the suspect list for this one than RaYnE.
Mafia C:+ Show Spoiler [Mafia C] +Day 1 Post:
In the parking lot, LTT, the love child of the late L and Samsung Khan's captain, read an Erlend Loe novel in his Audi sports car. Without warning, his windshield shattered and a wave of glass ripped through LTT's face. Passing out from blood loss, LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time. Notes: - Something or someone able to shatter a windshield - Passing out from blood loss implies that the attacker did not finish what he started, possibly leaving LTT before he was confirmed dead. Sloppiness or confidence in his ability? Maybe the attacker doesn't have any direct physical abilities? Suspect list:- zeks. Credit to Shikyo and So no fek for this one. www.zeks.com is a company who produces compressed air pumps, which could possibly be used to shatter the windshield.
- BWdero. He has a picture of the comic character Black Bolt. Black Bolt's ability is this (quoted from wikipedia): "He has a super sonic scream that can destroy almost anything, even if he whispers." Yeah, that's right. This guy is super powerful, but I imagine a whisper could take care of the windshield here. If he does show up again on day 3, it should be very easy to link the clues together.
- iLoveKTF. This has also been brought up before. It's the sound waves in his profile, a picture of the cover of some album, it's not really important. It's still sound waves. I imagine that if Pyrr were to write clues about iLoveKTF, a character who uses sound waves to kill would be plausible.
Mafia D: + Show Spoiler [Mafia D] +This is, together with Suspect C, in theory the easiest to analyze. Day 2 Post
His door bell rang. "Who could it be at this hour?," he thought. A salesman in a flashy tie greeted Jimtudor from his welcome mat and began his pitch. Jimtudor tried to close the door in the man's face, but the man swiftly jammed a metal bar in the doorway and used it to pry the door open, then bash Jimtudor in the head till he died. Notes:- A civilized man who uses the doorbell. - At this hour? Very early in the morning perhaps? I'm not sure if this is relevant information. - Salesman in a flashy tie trying to sell something - may have become upset when Jimtudor didn't want to buy anything/listen to him. - Wielding a metal bar Suspect list: [list] [*] I10f: I believe it was Shikyo who told us about Britney Spears' perfume, Believe? Anyway, it fits to the salesman profile, him trying to sell Britney's perfume. [*] Ra.Xor.2: I'm not going to quote his whole profile information, but it's basically what seems to be a missionary speech, so I'm thinking that the salesman could actually be trying to convert Jimtudor, or make him believe in God, whatever. So a religious fanatic who got angry when Jimtudor tried to shut the door before he could finish his pitch, seems plausible. So that's basically what I've got so far. I hope that day 3 will bring us more clues so I can try to fill out the profiles more, and we're still missing some mafia in the clues. I also do think that it's a mistake of us to try to link people with oneword clues like "crepuscular" "Erlend Loe" or "drumstick" (yeah I know that one was quickly disregarded, but still). In my opinion we should be focusing on the bigger picture in the day posts, trying to build profiles of the attackers assuming that this is how Pyrr is writing his clues. Hey, I did something like this a few pages back :p, but I was just listing names that might have some relevance, and I was trying to bias the inactives since I remember softer and Jimtudor mentioned a lot about inactives, so I thought mafia was trying to hide in inactivity. Anyways, on mafia A, interesting catch on chaoser, but I firmly believe that this refers to omG.[RaYnE]. First, it strongly seems like a vampire, as a night-stalker, especially since there are lots of references to the night (though this may be because it's night haha). Also, BloodRayne does indeed have a whip, though it is like a harpoon; "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rayne_(Bloodrayne)" "In addition to her ability to jump more than 20 feet into the air and running unnaturally fast, she is also strong enough to fire assualt rifles in each hand at different targets and pull her foes towards her using a wrist-mounted harpoon in order to feed on their blood." Also, the text specifically said "neck," which again can refer to vampires. I suppose it can refer to chaoser as a ninja, but the only clue I see that relates refers to the stealth of the ninja, and so I think the clues better fit Rayne. My attempt at behavior analysis (I'm no good), Rayne is inactive. One vote away from being modkilled, and Rayne posts in the thread " " This seems to indicate that Rayne, though "inactive" votingwise, is still paying attention in the thread. Chaoser, on the other hand, seems to genuinely be helping the town. But again, we shall see when day comes which of the two the clues better stack up against, or maybe it's even someone else. On mafia C, I think the connection to zeks is kind of weak. But between BWdero and iLoveKTF, I think the clues are more stacked towards BWdero (though only one clue). I first thought that this mafia was a bomber, but with the reference to sound, "a horn that would not be heard in time," I can see how it refers to sound waves. So between BWdero and iLoveKTF, I think that BWdero is a better fit. First, his character is a superhero that can emit large sonic bursts; thus he does not have to be present to use it. This can be shown in that the mafioso is not there when LTT dies, perhaps he is far away, whispering? Again, letting LTT die from the blood loss can seem to indicate that he is the hero, since the hero doesn't seem to have any killing power besides sonic booms. iLoveKTF, on the other hand, only has sound waves in his picture. I suppose you can generalize the same as BWdero, but with only soundwaves, we can't really tell. Again, this depends on if this figure appears again the next day, as he only appears once. On mafia D, sounds good, but as I said before, it could also be epicdoom, as epic doom music is characterized as "a style of doom metal that is characterized primarily by its vocal style; vocalists typically employ clean, operatic and choral singing. Lyrics and imagery are typically inspired by fantasy or mythology, while the drumming is performed in a bombastic fashion." "clean vocals" can refer to the civility (word?) of the man, and bombastic drumming can refer to the flashiness of the tie. But of the salesman, I don't know, I guess we have to wait and see if he turns up again.
Thanks for the response
I basically agree with you on everything, except the part on epicdoom. I'm not saying he's innocent, but I don't think the clues are THAT complicated that you need to be able to convert a flashy tie to bombastic drumming. But I guess epicdoom could also apply to the windshield shatter, again using sound, atleast I think that's more plausible than him being the salesman. Also, the salesman could possibly link to iLoveKTF, trying to convince Jimtudor why KTF is the best / pitch KTF kind-of. Just a thought.
On all of the cases, we basically have to have more clues before we can come to conclusions. This is merely the start of our clue analysis, on day 3 and 4 we will be able to connect the clues and build more solid profiles on all of our suspects, some of them will be easier than others. I'm pretty positive that we will be able to get a pretty good clue connection to atleast one mafia on day 3.
I also think the zeks link to Mafia C is a stretch. I just mentioned it because it is a possibility. I have most faith in BWdero being the link there, but again we need more clues before accusing anyone.
And nice information on BloodRayne, a vampire being night active is something I should have thought of :p. Also the focus on the neck area. Nice catch. I'm not really sure on the harpoon and whip though. It seems like a stretch.
So which suspect do you think the Day 2 kill on Softer was? A or B? Or someone new?
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Edit: oh wow two nice and long posts were made while I was writing. I'll read and respond.
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OK. You bring up some valid questions, crate. I'll try to respond to those who regard me.
crate wrote: He sent me the same PM.
I want to know how many people he PM'd and what their responses were.
That doesn't come as a surprise to me. I also want to know who else was PM'ed.
crate wrote: teks: the problem I have with your analysis is that you seem to postulate that zeks is GF, then take that as an axiom in your posts. "Look at how all this information makes sense if zeks is GF."
Yes. This is how I did my behavior analysis, reading through his posts and trying to see if they would make sense in a mafia point of view. As Shikyo says, how else was I supposed to do it? Wouldn't it be the same if I turned it around? Why would he neglect mentioning a veteran hit as a possibility for the third hit? Why would he encourage the medics not to "deviate from the plan"? Why would he ask me who I think are suspicious without even requiring any reasoning for it? Why would he wiff away the GF argument in his DT rolecheck plan like it was nothing? Why would he not mention that vigi's cant hit on night one when he talked about the confirmed townie?
crate wrote: Since you bring up lack of contributions so much teks--give me a list of every single person who you felt made significant contributions on day 1. And day 2, if you feel up to it. If you want me to do the same, I'll go look back through the topic for you and do it. This is a good point. At Day one, it is very hard to make a valid analysis on anything, and basically the only contribution that can be made is making plans and teaching new players any methods we could use etc. I'm sure 90% of the posts are utter crap, including my own. But atleast I feel that I have contributed this night.
To answer your question directly though, no I'm not going to go through the thread and look for significant contributions. I've been skimming through the thread and writing analysis all day, and I feel that I've had my share for today. If you are implying that I used zeks' lack of contribution as an argument for being GF, I only did that because I, earlier in the thread, had the feeling that he was doing a lot for the town, but when I read through the posts, I saw that he really didn't. I guess I was just expecting more from an experienced player? Atleast on day 2.
crate wrote:Show nested quote + teks wrote: I was just remembering someone using the same phrase I was going to use, "posting a lot of fluff and no real content". That was me. I stand by my initial assessment of Shikyo's day 1 posting.
I'm not going to argue with you on that. I think we all posted a lot of fluff on those days, and I can't be arsed to go through Shikyo's posts right now.
crate wrote: Not a single one of these cases has teks benefiting from calling to be lynched (except maybe the one where teks is GF, but I think that's so unlikely there's basically zero chance it's true).
You're right, it doesn't benefit anyone.
crate wrote: Just ignore his [teks's] call to be lynched please, he's not thinking soundly here. The only cases where this declaration possibly makes any logical (as opposed to emotional) sense are the cases where both zeks and teks are mafia. I don't think they're both that stupid right now.
Don't be swayed by emotional arguments people, that's bad for the town.
teks please don't make stupid emotional appeals that make no sense logically. I don't want to pick them apart so easily, there's no sport in it.
Yes. Please ignore that call. You are right, it was an emotional argument (if you can even call it an argument), which I shouldn't have said at all. I was trying to convey that I knew about the consequences which could come if I was wrong, and that I would understand people being suspicious of me if that were to be the case. The town wouldn't gain anything on lynching me, and neither will I, so I too want to retract that statement.
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Ok, you may be right. I'll be sure to keep that in mind the next time I'm doing a behavior analysis. But I think both me and Shikyo pointed out illogical behavior for a green/blue.
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Yeah I can't take this suspense. f5f5f5
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I can tie the clues to my kill myself:
Day 3 Post Zeks thought he heard the falling of a tin can and swiveled his chair to try to find the source of the noise. But, when he tried to stand up Zeks felt his strength dissipate rapidly and he collapsed to the floor, dead.[/QUOTE]
About Darkwing Duck: Darkwing's main weapon of choice in his crime-fighting escapades is his gas gun, which functions much like a grenade launcher. It fires grenades with a variety of different gases (smoke bombs, laughing gas, tear gas, etc.), as well as some more direct offensive weapons (including boxing gloves and cartoon bombs). Source: http://dic.academic.ru/dic.nsf/enwiki/1304963
I obviously made the wrong call by hitting zeks. I did this because I had the feeling I may not live through the night, and that I should do my best to hit the top suspect. I really waited as long as I could before sending in the order, to let crate get some time to work on his analysis and to let zeks have a chance to post his clue analysis, which he promised, but never gave.
I believe zeks was the best suspect we had, but you could of course say that I should have waited until the next night with hitting anyone.
All I can say at this point is, atleast he wasn't a blue. I really believed in my case, which is why I went in for the kill.
About the confirmed townie, the only thing we know for sure is that there was a vigi hit this night. That means either me or EsbenPM (unless someone else wants to roleclaim vigi? Wouldn't be a good idea for mafia). EsbenPM is dead so he obviously can't tell us whether or not he sent in a hit that night. I can. I also sent out a PM to Foolishness, JeeJee and Shikyo at the same time. The clues are clearly pointing to me. I was the one accusing zeks in the first place.
Even if I were to be the confirmed townie, I no longer know who to trust or not to trust. Basically all my theories and ideas so far have gone to hell. If you gave me information, I'm honestly not sure who I would be able to share it with or not. I could share information from the DT's publicly, sure, but that's really the only thing I can think of.
But the one thing I do want to ask of you, is that you don't waste a lynch on me. I may have wasted my hit and killed a townie, but don't punish me by wasting a lynch. We need those lynches now if we want to win.
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Edit: I fucked up my quote tag, please ignore it.
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So people not roleclaiming will be defaulted by me as "mafia"? :p
I agree with you on this plan, but the weak spot is that we need everyone active. If for instance we have one inactive medic, and a mafia roleclaims that medic spot, there would be no way to know. So we need everyone active. the good thing is, mafia don't know which roles aren't claimed.
I'll be making a list when I get some PM's.
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On May 24 2009 22:01 Shikyo wrote: Keep the list secret from the public. At the end of the day / night you should PM the list to the people we have managed to confirm in the case you die.
No sheriff protection?
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Course it was.
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I'm sorry zeks.
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Yeah there would be a small chance that your scenario could happen. But also keep in mind that I linked the clues to my profile picture, I don't think anyone else fits with using gas as a killing method.
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vx70GTOJudgexv wrote: I wish we had seen a hit from Esben as well
I wish we had seen a hit from him instead of me. But we'll take whatever advantage we can get at this point.
Anyway, your clue analysis looks good, seems pretty similar to mine. I also think the Jimtudor/Koopie killer is a swindler/actor/impersonator of some sort.
About EsbenPM's murder I actually have him linked to softer's death. I'll post my complete clue analysis soon.
I also have some clue links but I'm not sure how strong they are. We really need to lynch correctly this time.
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Edit: The EsbenPM/softer thing may have come out wrong, I'm not implying that softer was vigi'd, but that they were killed by the same person.
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On May 25 2009 05:28 SugiuraMidori wrote: I hope that, without revealing anything, teks will help us stay away from lynching any blues and that his clue analysis can at least subtly point out the mafia so we can finally kill one.
Yeah I'll be sure to do that. No blue who has roleclaimed to me should feel afraid of getting lynched, except if there are more roleclaims than roles for a given spot. Yes I'm talking to you mafia. Don't even think about it.
I also have some candidates based on clues, but I don't know how strong they are yet. I think I have a lock-on on one of them via the clues though. Maybe. If I'm lucky. :p
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crate wrote: (note also that the zeks = GF thing was actually presented by teks despite Shikyo having suspicions as early as the middle of Day 2).
I pitched my theory on zeks to him on day 2. He was basically agreeing on me on everything and helped me analyse his posts. That's also why he decided to PM zeks. I presented the case because it originally was my idea.
crate wrote: The largest counterargument I can see is that teks did not take a hit last night (unless Esben also hit someone on night 2, but I do not think he did so) and I think (teks can confirm or deny this) that Shikyo knew teks was vig'ing zeks.
Yes, he knew I was vigi and that I was hitting zeks. I roleclaimed to him on day 2 after the Jayme bandwagon was well on it's way, as it was no way for him to get me lynched, and I was going to PM him with my vigi kill (for the confirmed townie plan) at night time anyway. So I chose to trust him.
crate wrote: I'm willing to buy that teks was paranoid and came up with the timing on his own. My guess is teks wouldn't have struck without Shikyo's input to the accusation.
Yes I was paranoid, and I wanted to let zeks defend himself, and also hear the town's matter on the things. But my main goal on posting my accusations on him was to have him removed from medic list. I didn't want to risk my vigi hit when I knew that he might be protected due to medic list and high activity. And you are correct when you state that I (probably) wouldn't have struck without Shikyo's input.
crate wrote: I will commend you on your actions during night 2; apart from letting teks live (which may or may not have been a mistake) you did excellently.
In the event that Shikyo is mafia, he could easily have stacked some hits on me to make sure I didn't become the confirmed townie. But also keep in mind that he himself encourages people to PM me with his roles. I think, again in the event that he is mafia, that this would be a highly optimistic plan that would win the game for mafia, because we have been talking alot in PM's and I've stated that I fully trust him (I've pitched him all my ideas, input and role so far, so I had to trust him). His plan was then to make me the confirmed and gullible townie, then have me give him the list "in the event that I die" - which he mentions without bringing up sheriff protection :p
So with that list of blue roles in hand, they would go on to kill of anyone they wanted to. Game over.
Foolishness wrote: I also don't think Shikyo has pointed very many fingers so far (at least compared to some other people).
I feel like you're talking about me.. hahah
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Oh and yeah I forgot about this:
crate wrote: I'd like teks to post a list of who has yet to roleclaim when he next gets a chance.
Sure thing. Here it is:
Missing:
iLoveKTF (away) chaoser omG.[RaYnE] clazziquai motbob wurm ydg I10f phelix BWdero epicdoom
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Yeah it's not a surprising list. iLoveKTF said he can't post so he's excused. when RaYnE has posted it has been useless 1-3 word posts like "mind fuck" and the likes. This is one of the reasons why I propose that we lynch him today.
Suspect: omG.[RaYnE]
1. He hasn't roleclaimed 2. He seems to have followed the thread somewhat but has neglected voting once and has only posted one-liners. Hiding amongst the other inactives? 3. Clue:
Day 1 Post Meanwhile, downstairs, Qatol was using the Triumvirate Building's spacious archery range for target practice. As he looked down to reload, another figure crossed the room from the other side. The mafioso crept behind Qatol and took out his knife. Qatol never shot another arrow.
Rayne from BloodRayne. Wikipedia: "In the first game, Rayne is highly athletic and versatile, due to her Dhampir nature as well as a lifetime of training. In addition to her ability to jump more than 20 feet into the air and running unnaturally fast(...)" She also uses dual blades which could be interpreted as a knife (?)
Rayne could also be the one in the sewers, but I've been unable to find anything related to shuffling/books/desk to Rayne. There is a sewer level in the Rayne game(s) though.
Also keep in mind that if we are to lynch Shikyo, we will need atleast 3 more votes on him than the third on the list, due to mayor position. Basically, we all need to be in on this.
I would also like to suggest that we all vote for double lynch today too, so we can lynch two more suspects on day 4.
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OH sorry wurm. I see I didn't remove you from the missing list. You could have just PM'd me again though ^^
wurm had roleclaimed to me. Correct list:
Missing:
iLoveKTF (away) chaoser omG.[RaYnE] clazziquai motbob ydg I10f phelix BWdero epicdoom
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And about omG.[RaYnE], as has been stated he hasn't been very active, so he isn't a major threat to the town at this point. If there were to be any other suspects who has been more active, I suggest that we wait with Rayne till day 4. In case no other strong suspects appear though, I think RaYnE would be a decent pick for today's lynch.
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Yep! I'm very glad that you brought it up, as it may have taken a while for me to see that I had you twice on my list :/
Your input is valuable, don't worry if you don't bring in anything new. Hearing your opinion on other's suggestions is a way of contributing too. The most important thing is that you speak up a bit, so that there are fewer inactives for the mafia to hide amongst. I'm also happy to see that you keep up with the thread.
And to the rest of the town-aligned players, I have an exam tomorrow so forgive me for not whipping together any big analysis today. I'll do that after I'm done with that exam though. I will however keep active and say my input, keep updating the list and stating who I suspect, but there won't be any huge analysis going on on my part for now.
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Good analysis, but I don't agree with you on this:
wurm wrote: Mafia #3 has no description. LTT was unable to see anybody before his death.
The shattering of the windshield and death from bloodloss isn't a good enough description? :/ Imo it's far more describing than Mafia #1 for instance.
wurm wrote: Example being the crepuscular(?) clue.
This sentence has been clue checked, it doesn't contain any clues.
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wurm wrote: My bad, didn't know a DT already checked that one out.
Yeah I haven't said it in the thread so there would be no way for you to know. But because it basically lead us to Jayme, and noone talked about it anymore, I didn't bother to mention it. But in order to avoid confusion I can hereby declare that crepuscular isn't a clue.
wurm wrote: Sorry, I should've have been clearer. I was trying to create profiles of the mafia person. How they act, what they use, etc. Mafia#3 has no stated weapon, no description about himself, and LTT didn't even get to see him. So I have nothing on him as a person.
Well since he left LTT to die from bloodloss I think we can state that he is either very confident in his ability, or careless, since he didn't "finish the job". Also, I think it's safe to assume that sound waves are involved, but it isn't directly stated in the clue, so it's not 100%.
Basically I think BWdero is the best suspect we have for this person, his picture being Black Bolt, a superhero whose whispers can wreak havoc, being supersonic and all. He would also fit to the description of being confident in his own ability.
Hopefully he will make another kill the next night so we can get some more clues on him.
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On May 25 2009 19:55 Shikyo wrote: Well, enough about that. It's good to note that there are several suspicious people on the list of people who haven't yet sent their roles. But what's not good is teks voting for me -.- What the. Teks I just sent you a list of the blues I know. They're all alive. Oh well, in any case. I'll eat now, will say more about the list very soon.
I know. I have my reasons, but I can't go public with them as of yet. As I said in the voting thread I may or may not change my vote(s).
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motbob, please PM me with your role. If you do not trust me please go back a few pages and read my/our reasoning. You probably know that not roleclaiming to me alone is warrant for the town's suspicion.
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Also, Shikyo does bring up a good point. If we want to get our targets lynched we have to focus our votes on them. This especially goes for the mayor spot who has 3 votes alone to sway the vote results to his favor.
And town, please don't bandwagon whatever I vote, even though I'm the confirmed townie. As I stated in the voting thread, I just threw my preliminary votes, they may not be final. If you wish to vote for the same please do it because you believe in the reasonings that have been made in this thread, such as crate's post on Shikyo or my post on omG.[RaYnE], not because you think it's safe to go with whatever the others are.
It may also be wise to wait with voting for now, as we really haven't come to an agreement of the best solution yet.
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On May 25 2009 20:50 Shikyo wrote: Why would I ever suggest something like that? Oh well, maybe you'll get into your senses. ^_^
Here's what crate would say:
http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=WIFOM
WIFOM arguments are often a Scum tactic used to distract the Town. The scum will make an unusual play at night, which would lead to a situation that would 'clear' them (because players will think, "Why would a scum do that?"
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Updated list. motbob has roleclaimed.
Missing:
iLoveKTF (away) chaoser omG.[RaYnE] clazziquai ydg I10f phelix BWdero epicdoom
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Yay a bunch of new posts to read through. Haven't done it yet though so I can't comment on them as of now. I just wanted to update the list of missing roleclaims.
The following players have roleclaimed to me since last update: chaoser, Phelix, I10f
Missing:
iLoveKTF (away) omG.[RaYnE] clazziquai ydg BWdero epicdoom
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Shikyo wrote: I think that I also tried to push teks into hitting zeks way too strongly. -_- I regret that as well. I also think that that is actually the main reason why he suspects me at this time.
In the end I'm the one responsible for my own actions. I went through zeks' post history myself and tried to analyze his actions as best as I could, I don't hold anything against you on this part. And that is not why I suspect you
crate wrote: Oh teks, why did you have to be so clumsy and roleclaim and make it so hard to read into this...?
I was going to tell him the next night anyway, so I didn't see it making a difference. I voted for him in the election and basically had the feeling that he was town-aligned, and I needed someone to discuss my ideas with, because I wanted to avoid a situation like this. Look how well that turned out. :p
crate wrote: You didn't even mention that you thought zeks was suspicious until that night (teks you made the same mistake); your timing was atrocious on day 2. Do you dispute these conclusions?
That probably was a mistake indeed. But I felt that zeks was such an active and experienced player and I didn't want to randomly throw out accusations on such a player without building up a case. I should probably have started working on it sooner though.
crate wrote:Show nested quote +teks wrote: His plan was then to make me the confirmed and gullible townie, then have me give him the list "in the event that I die" holy shit how did i miss this? do NOT do that
vx70GTOJudgexv wrote: Teks, do NOT PM that list to anyone unless you are 100% sure of their role.
Yeah I know. I'm not in any danger at this point so the list stays right where it is. Also, I said that he might do that because that was/is basically the only logic explanation for why I'm still alive, either that he wants to have me PM him the list, or PM someone else who is mafia. I don't know. Either way it seems weird for a mafia to do this. You'd think he would want to kill off what he knew could turn up as a confirmed townie, but didn't even try. And then go on the next day and back me up and encourage people to PM me roles? There's definitely something iffy here. But JeeJee said he could explain it, so I'm basically waiting for a PM from him or something
crate wrote: i'm not bitter about your fuckup with zeks
i'm more pissed at teks for it, he's the one who fucked up
Indeed. :/
crate wrote: Anyone roleclaim mafia? ^^
Yes, actually. LTT is mafia. We need to lynch him ASAP.
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The thing about this game is that there are way too few people who actually post anything. That means that the mafia still hides, and we really have nothing to go on except clues. And the clues we have so far haven't really been bulletproof evidence. I'm pretty sure on RaYnE, but I was pretty sure on zeks as well and look how well that turned out.
About Shikyo, I'm still torn.
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I no longer think Shikyo is mafia.
All our links are so weak. Damnit. I don't know who to vote for. RaYnE seems too easy
I'm thinking BWdero due to Black Bolt. chaoser would be my next choice due to the stealthy ninjazzz. Also, poker.
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On May 26 2009 06:44 crate wrote:Which links do you think are weak?
Basically all our clues. As in, we have no really obvious ones.
If you're talking about Shikyo, I just don't see how he can be mafia and not kill off a confirmed townie + a dt, even if it meant that he would have died in the process.
You're going to call me stupid now aren't you
:D
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On May 26 2009 06:51 crate wrote:Show nested quote +teks wrote: Basically all our clues. As in, we have no really obvious ones.
If you're talking about Shikyo, I just don't see how he can be mafia and not kill off a confirmed townie + a dt, even if it meant that he would have died in the process. What does "all our clues" mean? Don't be so vague here please.
Well, we have clues on almost all of our suspects. But then again we had clues on therapy and Jayme too. Basically, we need to reduce mafia KP tonight, but I'm still only seeing a gamble.
I still feel the clues are strongest on rayne, chaoser and BWdero. But rayne seems to go down way too easily (unless the mafia is giving him up due to inactivity), and noone seem to agree with me on BWdero.
All I'm saying is that I wish this choice would be easier to make.
On May 26 2009 06:51 crate wrote: And teks I should be able to call you stupid for hitting zeks all game :p
Good point
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On May 26 2009 07:00 crate wrote: I'm weighing Shikyo's behavior as far more important than clues. You want to follow clue analysis, go ahead. I agree with using it on inactives; we need something to go on to pick which one to hit and we can't use posts there.
How about all those clues linking to zeks? Didn't stop you last night....
Stopping you now since you whiffed last time? :p
I weigh behavior more too. His actions (or lack of actions if you will) make him seem more town than anything to me.
I want to follow clue analysis because that's what we got. We have like 50% inactives left in this game, so there's not really that much else to work with.
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I gotta get to bed. I will try to get up to check out the vote progress some time before the voting closes, because I'm sure this discussion won't end here. Meanwhile I'm changing my vote from Shikyo to chaoser.
Please don't lynch Shikyo. Even though he may have been acting strangely or played poorly, it would make no sense for him to spare me and an (most likely) unprotected DT last night, he knew our roles.
Other than that, I just hope people vote for whoever they see as the strongest suspect. I won't try to sway people to vote what I vote because I'm probably wrong anyway.
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Wow, this is such a mess. Am I too late?
Foolishness, if you want to go pick suspects off my list, start with the missing ones.
iLoveKTF (away) omG.[RaYnE] clazziquai ydg BWdero epicdoom
Both rayne and BWdero are on it, so that would be a decent lynch imo. Yes, Rayne seems to easy, but no, the Rayne -> BloodRayne isn't too farfetched. The character in BloodRayne is called Rayne. And I can't find anyone else meaningful named Rayne.
clazziquai and epicdoom have had clues or weird behavior pointing to them, so that would also be a decent suggestion.
I'm sorry I haven't been on in the last hours to sort this out. It's nighttime here and I have an exam tomorrow. I can't really sort this out, and I don't think my list would contribute all that much because I have a shitload of townie claims and still a big missing list. Basically every suspect we discuss are on one of those lists.
With the two last vote shifts it seems JeeJee will have his wish. If Shikyo turns green, Ra.Xor.2 and motbob doesn't come out very well.
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I would want to lynch a mafia mayor too. But there is still no changing the fact that Shikyo had a good list of blues on day two which he didn't do anything with (including me as a confirmed townie and a DT), and even pointed me to these blues when I wanted to tell someone of my vigi hit. Why would any mafia willingly help me set up this list?
I can't change what you guys believe, but I can't support this either. I think it's a mistake to lynch Shikyo.
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Protecting it over killing a confirmed townie and a DT in one go?
Maybe you are right. That's not how I would do it, and I don't see it as very likely. It is possible though, but not possible enough that I want to use a lynch to find out.
This isn't in my hands anymore though. Just vote what you guys believe in. I think we've all said what he had to say at this point.
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Ok I'm dead tired and it's 4:45 AM here. I'm hitting the sack again. Sorry I couldn't be of more help.
After my exam I'm ready to analyze everyone and everything, but I fear it'll be too late.
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Ok, so BWdero was medic.
WHY DID HE HAVE TO BE INACTIVE
damnit
If he had just pmed me his role that wouldn't have happened
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Missing:
clazziquai ydg epicdoom
If any of you three read this please PM me your role.
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Shikyo wrote: So silly ^_^ I request that the time of the posts is changed to such that us living in europe have a chance to change our votes at the end... like tonight I would have. At least I was right about rayne ^_^ And Ra.Xor.2 is mafia, too. As is motbob. And l10f. Sadly, no time to change my vote away so BWdero got lynched. Oh well -.-
Yeah it's such a pain in the ass to get up 4 in the morning to check out the votes.
Suggestion: we let ydg and epicdoom die in a fire get modkilled, and focus on the rest.
I don't see how we can win this now. Maybe if we're lucky on the mafia hits tonight. Like if they all abstain their kills due to pacifism.
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What the hell is up with that killing
I don't understand anything, except that I know we had a medic protection tonight. Judge had already taken a hit (the loose hit on night... 2 was it?) and the mafia knew that. One of our DT's rolechecked The_Master last night so we knew he was townie. kinda too bad he was the one who got picked off.
But on the bright side: Only two kills, no DT or medic lost tonight. Woohoo!
By the way motbob, I'll fill out that voting list more for my own private purposes since I have a pretty large rolelist. I'll see if I figure something out.
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The clues are great, think we have alot to go on there. Crucifix-things are also blatantly obvious in pointing to Ra.Xor.2, who even thought I was mafia (what the hell?). clear lynch.
Btw, the DT's want me to order a hit on I10f, but I have my doubts tbh. Could be miller and I haven't seen any clues pointing to him. what do you guys think?
Are there any other suspects we should rather hit than I10f?
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On May 27 2009 14:29 motbob wrote: If he already flipped green
He has not, I can tell you that much. I'll look into his posts soon, just going to get a few hours sleep first.
At the moment I'm actually pretty confident that we will hit two mafia today, UNLESS SOMEONE STARTS HATING ON SHIKYO AGAIN. PLEASE DON'T.
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On May 27 2009 14:36 l10f wrote:
We can do it! We just have to get two mafias, and hope that Shikyo isn't one. If he is one, I believe it's too late anyway to change anything. Your call.
Shikyo isn't mafia. Yet another night went by without him ordering a single hit on any of our DT's, who he knows the identity of. And no way in hell would he come up with that stupid mafia hitlist.
Tbh if this is the worst town ever it's probably also the worst mafia ever.
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Ok. I've done some analysis on chaoser. Check it out and let me know what you think.
+ Show Spoiler [Behavior Analysis] +So I looked over chaoser's posts to see if I could spot anything weird. I'll take crate's advice this time and won't point out everything that would make sense if he were mafia, but rather try to find weird things to do as townie. Here's what stood out to me: On May 22 2009 00:48 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2009 21:24 EsbenPM wrote: Oh, and i don't think we decided on a final plan regarding confirming townies, but the best idea from my perspective is having a vigi linked to a kill, so we have a confirmed townie in him to rally arround i guess.
As for calling out hits it could help give an idea of who mafia is targetting, to help the medics for the next night. there's no way for a vigi to get linked to a kill unless the vigi died. Or if the vigi was called on to kill someone at night and in the day that person got killed by the vigi. The problem with that is that the mafia could kill that person as well. So the only real way is if there is an 100% sure red, the vigi calls him out, asks for medic protection, and then kills the mafia member. but now you have a liability and he basically needs to be protected every night and he doesn't even have a real role anymore. The best people in roles of leadership are either a DT or a vet with a clean hit record (never hit yet). Hmm.. The bolded part is weird. Why would he oppose getting a confirmed townie that much? Doesn't have a real role, how does that matter? he also neglects to mention the possibility of having 4 kills in one night, but that could be a honest mistake. Also, "needs to be protected".. How about CAN be protected because it will more or less be guaranteed blocking hits from the mafia? That is MUCH better than not knowing at all who the mafia will hit. This won't be the last night where mafia didn't get three kills. Ra.Xor.2 wrote: Many people have already mentioned that the other mafiaso seems sneaky so i wont go there. However, the one that killed Jim seems to be extremely brutal judging from his repeated blows to the head. This could be a reference to Chaoser (from the chaos in his name), Adriix33 (his quote says lifes a bitch. then you die.), or JeeJee (who's quote mentions fear several times). But here's the kicker. Ra.Xor.2, one of our safest mafia bets atm, tried to link chaoser to the clues. Wth. On May 26 2009 09:03 Shikyo wrote: That being said, chaoser really doesn't seem like a mafia right now, and I'm willing to take the chance with another, better suspect like BWdero for now. Shikyo, could you elaborate on your thoughts about chaoser? And then when our double lynch comes, chaoser even discourages lynching both omG.[RaYnE] and Shikyo: chaoser wrote: Also, in regards to Shikyo, really? you guys want to kill the mayor when clearly NO REAL BLUES have died? I HIGHLY doubt, a mafia as mayor would not have DESTROYED this town by now. All the clues to him are weak and every single "behavioral analysis" of him has been weak so far. At most he hasn't stepped up like the mayors of the past (Ace, ect.) but that doesn't mean he's mafia. chaoser wrote: To JeeJee:
Firstly, you're going to feel shitty as fuck when Shikyo gets lynched and he's green cause congrats, you just killed your own green mayor! His behavior is nothing like a mafia member and with no clues pointing at him at all you're going to lynch him just cause he's doing a SHITTY job? If a mafia was in office so many blues would be dead it's not even funny. To do a shitty job and to actively hunt for blue is not the same. Rethink your plan. I'm pretty sure that EVERY mafia at this point would want Shikyo dead. I'm actually surprised that they didn't bandwagon him more, but then again I don't feel that the mafia has played very well in this game. But for a mafia to go out and DEFEND the green townie? Yeah right. That's all I could get out of chaoser's posts, really. The only suspicious post I could find was the one about the vigi plan. And that could just be lack of research/or a hastily written post on his part. That doesn't make him mafia. + Show Spoiler [Accusations] +Then motbob goes on making a case on chaoser, connecting him to softer's murder in the park. Let's look at this. motbob wrote:First: clue analysis. Show nested quote +Walking through the park in the darkness, Softer began to think he was being stalked, so he hid in the bushes. The figure that had been following him began to search the thicket, and Softer panicked and tried to bolt towards the park's exit. However, before Softer could get away, his stalker whipped him forcefully in the back. Softer flew to the ground, where vicious stomps to the back of the neck took his life. I believe this clue points to chaoser, if only because of the act of whipping. The use of the word whipping could be a reference to a sharp blow to the back, but in this case I believe that it points to something specific; it is a clue. Chaoser's public profile reads thusly: (12:22:39 AM) krimson: SON (12:22:44 AM) krimson: IM the ninja trainer (12:22:46 AM) krimson: i train ninjas (12:22:47 AM) ostrich: wtf (12:22:52 AM) ostrich: you're a pokemon trainer (12:22:57 AM) krimson: POKEMON ARE NINJAS You can clearly see where whipping fits in there. Trainers <> whips. I've looked at everyone else's profile. No one has anything that ties in nearly as neatly with "whipping." When has pokemon trainers ever been associated with whips? Even though you couldn't find any other matches doesn't mean that this has to be one. It could be a red herring, or simply a connection that Pyrr found and you didn't. motbob wrote: Second: vote analysis. chaoser has a 100% bad voting record, except for the sheriff election, where he voted for a now-dead blue. However, this vote was cast AFTER Shikyo had received a convincing majority. At that point, the race was between JeeJee and JimTudor for second place (or so it seemed at the time.) Others had described JeeJee as a "veteran player." (I don't know if this is true or not) and it seems conceivable to me that Mafia would see JeeJee as a worse alternative to JimTudor as mayor. chaoser's 100% bad voting record, well, that goes for me as well. I've voted for all of our green/blue lynches up until now. I agreed on lynching therapy too. Does that make me mafia? Bad judgement does not equal red. And Jimtudor was also a veteran player. Is it not possible that chaoser thought that JimTudor was the best choice? Jimtudor was town-aligned, so you can't make any conclusions from this. motbob wrote: Third: post analysis.
chaoser did extremely superficial clue analysis. He merely bolded passages that were "interesting" to him, without actually connecting the passages to anyone. There is one exception: he threw a great deal of suspicion onto Jayme, in multiple posts.
chaoser is mafia. It is clear as day. I just went through the same posts, and I didn't see anything spectacular. Keep this in mind: this is a game for new players. There are PLENTY of misread clues throughout this whole thread, including clues as crepuscular, BWdero's sound waves, my clues on RaYnE, the therapy clues, ALL the clues we had on Jayme. I do agree that his choice of passages to bold was poor. But take a look at the other clue analysis we've had, were they not just as poor?
So in my opinion, the fact that he stood up for Shikyo BY FAR outweighs the petty mafia accusations we have been able to muster on chaoser. And in addition, our top suspect and next lynch connected weak clues to chaoser. So because of that:
I want the town to NOT lynch chaoser today.
But chaoser, we really need your answers here too. Any particular reason for why you voted for omG.[RaYnE]? I think you voted for BWdero in order to save Shikyo, which I did as well. So that's reasonable.
Also, to repeat my encouragement to Shikyo: Shikyo please let me/us know what you were basing your opinions on when you stated that you didn't think chaoser was mafia.
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Oh, I meant to say the name of this top suspect in my conclusion, that would be Ra.Xor.2.
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yeah I was going to ask you to confirm it but I guess I don't have to do that then ><
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Ok, with chaoser done, I'm moving on to Pawsom. Let's see..
+ Show Spoiler [Behavior] +Ok. Pawsom, like most of the other players in this game, keeps making bad calls on clues and overlooks things when he comments on confirmed townie and medic lists. But that could be said about many of us. The first weird thing I noticed when going through his posts was this: Pawsom wrote: [about double lynch] I don't know dude. Seems like a waste to me. If we double lynch on day 2, we still might not be sure, or close enough to sure about certain players. Also, how does that give us a higher chance of hitting red? We'll have a higher chance once there are less players, and once we have more clues. So he's against double lynch. I can't see how he doesn't understand how 2 lynches instead of 1 means we have better chance of hitting a red. But oh well. This could also be a weird townie call so I won't put that much weight on it, especially since in the end we probably would've benefited more from postponing the double lynches for a day. crate wrote: Right now my dumb players list includes Raxor, Pawsome, The_Master, Koopie (well...), and l10f. Even though it's been 5 days since you wrote that post, if you could, it would be great if you would elaborate on this, crate. Pawsom wrote: Green tie seems very, suspicious, but It's hard to link it to one person. Also, softer died by being stomped on the neck, this and the tie seem to correlate well. I know we've been making weird clue connections all over the place in this game, but come on. First of all, it was a flashy tie, not a green tie. And to connect a man in a tie to another murder which involved the neck area? That has got to be the most farfetched clue connection I've seen in this game so far. And that says a lot. That's basically all I could get out of his posts. He did another weak and pointless clue analysis but it's no good evidence, so I'll leave it.
+ Show Spoiler [Voting Pattern] +Now this is where things get interesting, and why I bothered to look into him at all. Let's take a look at yesterday's double lynch. Pawsom wrote: I vote for shikyo, even if he is a towny, hes not helping at all.
Haven't decided my second vote yet. If you are townie you just made the biggest mistake you have ever done in this game. "Oh hey guys why don't we lynch our mayor? So what if he's townie, it's not like he's useful!" What this looks like to me is a mafia trying to cover up the fact that he's voting for the townie mayor. No town-aligned player would say something like that, giving up three votes in our favor and lynching a bodyguard protected player, unless he strongly believed that the mayor was mafia. Pawsom seemingly didn't care about Shikyo's alignment.
+ Show Spoiler [Clues] +At first, many of us connected Pawsom to the crepuscular sentence, along with Jayme. But the DT's checked that, and crepuscular wasn't a clue. So there would have to be something else. The thing is, Pawsom basically has nothing to make clues out of. An SCV-icon and his nick is basically all we have to work with. I had no idea where to start. I couldn't think of anything in these clues that could connect to Pawsom, probably because Pyrr has made a connection to his nickname that I have failed to see. But then I got a PM from JeeJee the other day, who was questioning Pawsom's status as well. At first I disregarded his clues, as I didn't think they were any good. But with today's post, they actually were. JeeJee wrote: Let's look at Pawsom. Empty profile, empty quote. All we have is his name. What the heck is his name anyway? Googling it gives nothing. What do we have left? My whole analysis hinges on the fact that Pyrr looked at his name and thought "Possum".
Day Two (DISCLAIMER: this whole day is a problem as only two killers are mentioned, out of 7 mafia. Hence it's my belief that pyrr does not separate mafias by the killers, but rather uses descriptive words that point to them instead) Possums happen to be big fans of various vegetation and garbage as sources of food. If you live in the suburbs and haven't seen them rifling through someone's garbage or chomping on cute flowers, you haven't lived there long enough (or perhaps you sleep at night). I'm of course referring to the figure searching the thicket. Here's the kicker, and why the disclaimer above is important. There's no possum in the world that can 'stomp' on someone's neck, since they weigh like 10 pounds.
Day Three Another place you can find possums running around at night (if you happened to be an adventurous child) is in various tunnels, under bridges, and so on. Naturally, I'm referring to so no fek's trip in the depths of the town's sewer system. Now, it beats me how the desk relates to this, if it does at all, but then i also don't understand what a desk would be doing in the frigging sewers to begin with. The ruffling of pages though could potentially refer to a possum's hiss, although I doubt it.
also his posts are queer. i'm too lazy to outline that in here though Keep in mind that this was said before the recent day post though. So I did some research to try and find some connections with today's murders. Wikipedia: "Playing possum" is an idiomatic phrase which means "pretending to be dead" Day 4 Post: So, when his front door opened to reveal an odious figure soaked with the stench of death, vx70GTOJudgexv welcomed the man If that's even a clue it's more probable that it's pointing to epicdoom, but oh well. I'll get to the point. I did find one highly plausible clue on Pawsom in today's day post. So if there's only one mafia per kill, the stench of death could refer to playing possum. Anyway, take a look at this: Day 4 Post: The killer removed explosives from the pouch at his waist and placed them around vx70GTOJudgexv's house. Pouch was the word that immediately stood out to me. Keeping explosives in a pouch? Well, it all makes sense actually. Wikipedia: A possum (plural form: possums) is any of about 69 small to medium-sized arboreal marsupial species native to Australia, New Guinea, and Sulawesi (and introduced to New Zealand and China). Then I checked out the marsupial species: Wikipedia: Marsupials are an infraclass of mammals, characterized by a distinctive pouch (called the marsupium), in which females carry their young through early infancy. Could it be any clearer? Thanks to JeeJee for pointing out Pawsom -> Possum for me.
So there you have it. With emphasis on his "so what if he's townie" vote on Shikyo, and the pouch clue from today's post: Pawsom is mafia. Please lynch him along with Ra.Xor.2 today.
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Well the clue part wasn't really my main point :p Although I still find them weak. I think you're drawing lines between animal handlers and pokemon trainers too quickly, seems farfetched. We had clues on every other lynch we've done up untill now, yet we haven't hit a red. And the "bolding out what's interesting" could be for many reasons:
1) he didn't want to make an actual effort and read through the profiles 2) he was afraid to accuse innocents and reap the consequences for it later 3) he didn't find anything that fit to what he bolded
all of these are things townies could do.
What makes me sure chaoser is town is the fact that Ra.Xor.2 tried to link him with clues earlier in the game, and that he stood up for Shikyo, neither of which would make sense AT ALL if he was red.
motbob wrote: Oh wait, that was teks, not JeeJee.
JeeJee found Pawsom -> Possum, I found pouch -> possum. Cooperation!
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Actually I find Mew -> chaoser more likely than whip -> chaoser ^^
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I think you're so obsessed in finding clues that point to chaoser that you're missing the entire point.
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That wasn't the point. The point was that he can't be mafia because:
1) Ra.Xor.2 tried to connect him with clues 2) He protected Shikyo when he easily could have bandwagoned him, killing off our green townie
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LOL WHY do I keep writing that. I did that earlier too. Green mayor ofc :p
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On May 27 2009 22:45 motbob wrote: Also, the clue with the crucifix points squarely to Ra.Xor.2. But where does the "long blond hair" mentioned in the clue fit in? There are enough other parts of the clue to point to him that it doesn't matter (religious references -> "child of god", references to darkness, etc.)
Where does the double-barreled shotgun point to Pawsom?
I guess this is just how Pyrr writes his clues (with lots of red herrings).
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On May 27 2009 22:48 motbob wrote:Also, this has got to be the most pliable clue in the deck right now: Show nested quote +Deep underneath Fluidville, So no fek was searching the depths of the town's sewer system for traces of mafia activity. Holding a blazing torch aloft to find his way forward, he slowed as he heard a sound like the shuffling of pages. He peered around the corner and saw an empty desk, then looked down to see the blade that had pierced his rib cage from behind. So no fek tried to turn to at least get a glimpse of his killer, but he couldn't muster the energy as the blade slipped back out of his chest. I was sure it was Judge, but obviously not. Any ideas?
I have no idea who that points to. But the clue has to be one (or more) of these words: sewers, pages(book), desk.
I'm also pretty amazed that we have made no progress on the salesman/cannonseller. Seems so easy to figure out, yet it's not :p
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On May 28 2009 00:34 JeeJee wrote: they're barking up the completely wrong tree. but at this rate they'll have climbed every fugging tree in the forest anyway.
Yeah it almost seems as if they WANT to kill off the townies first. Oh well, good for us!
I'm pretty confident that they won't even get two kills the next night, unless they go for inactives again.
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On May 28 2009 02:06 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On May 28 2009 00:42 teks wrote:On May 28 2009 00:34 JeeJee wrote: they're barking up the completely wrong tree. but at this rate they'll have climbed every fugging tree in the forest anyway.
Yeah it almost seems as if they WANT to kill off the townies first. Oh well, good for us! I'm pretty confident that they won't even get two kills the next night, unless they go for inactives again. Of course if we fail to kill any mafia then they can get 2 kills easily lol
We won't.
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On May 28 2009 03:31 Shikyo wrote: what the, you have a list of 9 people, one of which being me, so we have 7/8 mafia there? O_o Really shouldn't screw this one up...
Actually there are 13 people.
But out of those 13 there are 4 I'm pretty confident in being town-aligned, one of them being you. So 7 out of MY 9 suspects are mafia. How the hell can we screw that up? Well I'm sure plenty of people don't necessarily agree with my list, and we still lack three roleclaims.
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Update to the missing list: ydg has now roleclaimed.
Missing:
epicdoom clazziquai
I've PM'ed them both.
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Hmm motbob does seem suspicious. I'll have to look through his posting history tomorrow.
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On May 28 2009 07:58 ydg wrote: Oh nice catch on Pawsom, I was wondering why everyone was voting for him, lol.
If he is mafia though, then I've been looking at clues the wrong way, which was the first thing I said in this thread, we have to see if the clues are description-linked or personality-linked, and I've been trying to link them personality-wise...
Yeah the thing is, since we haven't hit any mafia yet, the only clue we KNOW right now is the one pointing to me. And that is only one sentence. It may not even be sure that Pyrr makes the clues about the mafia in the same way, since he has the opportunity to link more than one person at a time, while vigi hits only can refer to that single vigi.
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clazziquai and epicdoom have roleclaimed. That means that everyone left in this game has roleclaimed. Yay!
So details about my list. There have been NO blue claims too many, which means:
1) The Blues I have are 100% confirmed unless one of the real blues was dumb enough to claim townie due to not trusting me, and the godfather conveniently was of that very same role, and had the balls to claim it, even with the chance of overflowing. NOT likely. 2) The GodFather is in the townie list 3) ALL the mafia are in the townie list, which means that SEVEN (not six, clazziquai ^^) of those 12 claims are mafia. And I'm decently sure I know atleast 2-3 safe townies on that list as well, making it at worst 7 out of 10.
To address your post, clazziquai:
clazziquai wrote: So we have a fairly good chance on hitting a mafia member via voting and our last vigilante kill.
We have no vigilante kill left. I used mine on zeks, which is why I've been confirmed as townie, and EsbenPM is dead.
clazziquai wrote: Anyways, who are our primary suspects? And what is our next intended action?
Atm the top suspects are Pawsom (relatively close to 100% mafia), Ra.Xor.2 due to obvious clues and suspicious voting, wurm (also suspicious voting + clues), and ydg (ask Foolishness on this one).
Our next intended action is to lynch two mafia and win the game. If you could read through like the 3-4 last pages you'd have a good view on who we suspect/accuse, just look for the nice spoiler tags and bold font.
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By the way, I found a clue on wurm:
It relates to the windshield shattering on day one, which we mostly connected to iLoveKTF or BWdero due to sound. Well, the number one hit on "wurm" is a game called Wurm Online. Check out this recent newspost on that game's website:
http://www.wurmonline.com/newsmenu/game-news/169-wurmsoundsadded
Yeah that's right. a "wurm sound explosion". Fits perfectly
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I'm not switching to I10f. If that is what the majority of the town wants though, go ahead and do that. I personally believe that our top 3 suspects atm are Pawsom, wurm and Ra.Xor.2. If I had to vote for someone else I'd rather vote for wurm.
But the thing is, at this point we benefit from voting for different suspects. Bandwagoning 2 people would give us NO vote results to read and analyze.
Here's a tip for the town: read the accusation posts and clues. Then vote for the one you think is most likely to be mafia based on that.
motbob wrote: BTW you didn't say WHY you think the chance of him being miller is very low.
Well for the mathematical part: We have 12 townie claims. Out of those 12, 2 are millers. That's 1 out of 6 or 16.66% chance of one person being miller. That would classify as very low. But for I10f, he can't be townie, so we can subtract 3 from that equation. He can be one of the 7 mafia+gf, or one of the two millers. so miller role is 2 out of 9. Or 1 out of 4.5 = 22.22% chance that he is miller.
Is that very low? Well, it is low atleast. But I'd still look for behavior, clues and voting behavior too, and from what I've seen, I don't find it unlikely that I10f is miller.
What is interesting is that Pyrr hands us Ra.Xor.2 on a silver platter through clues, and suddenly no-one wants to lynch him anymore. He was almost lynched the other day, but when his clues get STRONGER, we switch? what?
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On May 29 2009 00:31 JeeJee wrote:Show nested quote +On May 28 2009 13:32 SugiuraMidori wrote:On May 28 2009 12:14 Foolishness wrote: Is this thread dead? There's roughly 2 posts per hour. I think you've done a good job of scaring off all of the mafia from talking in addition to JeeJee scaring off the town from helping us kill the mafia. hey, i told you who to vote for but you decided to wagon with shikyo-the-innocent and lynch a medic instead good job. go ask him for some more guidance, maybe you can lynch the other medics today
wow could you be any more bitter for not getting people to listen to your faulty opinions
i think not
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On May 29 2009 06:54 crate wrote: teks if the blues are all confirmed I suggest you at least tell us who is on the townie list so we know who (not) to look at
I mean, up to you, but I don't see how that possibly hurts the town right now unless like you say one of the blues was actually dumb enough to not roleclaim properly.
If I do that you know that the mafia will know all the blue roles too, right?
I can PM you with it though. Hold on.
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Yeah you're right. I've mostly done that already though but I'll check my sent messages and send it to the remaining ones as well.
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OK.. So about my "clearance" of chaoser's mafia status. That was based on two things.
1) He stood up for Shikyo. Apparently, Shikyo is mafia after all. So this fails. 2) He was accused by Ra.Xor.2. Who was miller. So this fails too.
This means that chaoser can no longer be viewed as town-aligned.
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On May 29 2009 15:31 motbob wrote: Guys, it's over. Mafia has 8 voting power, town has 7. Tomorrow we will have 6 or less. Pyrr, stop the game please.
Town has 9. 2 DT + 2 Medic + 1 BG + 1 vigi + 2 townie + 1 miller Mafia have 8.
If they get more than one kill tonight it's over. Which they probably will.
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On May 29 2009 16:01 Foolishness wrote: You guys realise we have shikyo who has 3 votes yeah?
JeeJee wrote: just cluechecked the scarlet embarrassment death release sentence at shikyo and got a positive
As much as I'd like to trust Shikyo, if what JeeJee says is true (why would he lie?) there's no reason to even try to argue about it
I agree with motbob btw. Sign of the Cross + Crucifix and it's not Ra.Xor.2...
But Foolishness was also right that we shouldn't have relyed on clues alone.
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that was a joke?
anyway
not much to do except to wait for the day post and see how bad things are.
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On May 29 2009 23:31 Shikyo wrote: One of the reasons for this question is because Ra.Xor.2 seemed to have clues pointing to him. Another reason of suspicion is that you had sent the CC, gotten the reply, and then posted the post here in just 10 minutes. That's what makes it seem like you're lying.
It is entirely possible that those clues we thought were for Ra.Xor actually pointed to Phelix.
His quote:
Spray and pray! That's the SMG way. #1 Canata Fan
With emphasis on pray.
They could also be meant for I10f, with the "I believe", but I don't find that very likely.
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On May 30 2009 00:06 Shikyo wrote: So will you be lynching phelix or l10f? Or me? =P
Granted that the town still has a winning chance come morning, yes.
I'd rather lynch wurm though but if you are mafia like JeeJee says, we really need to kill your vote hax as soon as possible
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On May 31 2009 04:02 crate wrote: Anyone with Paint skills I request a pic of me, Shikyo, teks, and Foolishness bitching at each other with 7 others (the mafia) laughing at us.
That sums up the game as far as I'm concerned.
LOL so true.
Good game guys. Too bad inactivity really left its mark on it though.
One thing I fail to understand when looking back at things, why did chaoser defend Shikyo when Shikyo was about to be lynched?
I agree on Foolishness being town MVP. Too bad you couldn't convince the majority of the town to go along with your plans Maybe the outcome would've been different.
I'll just keep telling myself that even though I played horribly in this game, atleast I was active ><
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Yeah we should have had the game. Then we jumped to conclusions on omG[RaYnE] and Ra.Xor.2 (should have researched the crucifix and sign of the cross more thoroughly), and had to lynch BWdero to save Shikyo (and BWdero hadn't roleclaimed, so we lost a medic we didn't know about)
It's amazing how much we managed to fail while only choosing suspects from a list of townies and some non-roleclaimed roles, but it's hard to properly analyze when there were so few active posters, so clues were relied on WAY too much.
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forgot to refresh the page.. >< my post was in response to ydg
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On May 31 2009 04:25 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On May 31 2009 04:17 teks wrote:On May 31 2009 04:02 crate wrote: Anyone with Paint skills I request a pic of me, Shikyo, teks, and Foolishness bitching at each other with 7 others (the mafia) laughing at us.
That sums up the game as far as I'm concerned. LOL so true. Good game guys. Too bad inactivity really left its mark on it though. One thing I fail to understand when looking back at things, why did chaoser defend Shikyo when Shikyo was about to be lynched? I agree on Foolishness being town MVP. Too bad you couldn't convince the majority of the town to go along with your plans Maybe the outcome would've been different. I'll just keep telling myself that even though I played horribly in this game, atleast I was active >< Shikyo was leading the charge to kill chaoser but backed off of chaoser when chaoser stood up for Shikyo. That was a huge mistake, chaoser was making obvious tells left and right during that part of the game because he was posting as if he was 100% sure Shikyo was innocent in order to gain Shikyo's trust. Of course, only a mafia would be able to know Shikyo was 100% innocent at that point.
Aaaaaah. Wow that worked really well on me atleast ><
I couldn't find any logic in a mafia doing something like that, all I was thinking of was the fact that they could have had the mayor lynched, yet worked against it. I should have seen that chaoser was trying to save his own skin..
And about the clue to SugiuraMidori, I did some research on that character, but I only focused on killing methods guess I learned my lesson though.
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Wikipedia: She is a well-known history buff and is in ecstasy after being accidentally locked in the shrine storeroom and discovering it to be full of historical material.
Blah. I even remember reading that very sentence. I didn't make that connection at all.
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Hahaha wow that's.. kinda bad. ^^
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On May 31 2009 07:02 Shikyo wrote: How could anyone have known I was a miller? What =D And what about that too? I tried my best to stop bandwagoning of both Rayne and Ra.Xor.2. If no one listens... =P
You need to work on writing in all caps and bolding your text
^^
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