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On May 27 2009 14:29 motbob wrote: If he already flipped green
He has not, I can tell you that much. I'll look into his posts soon, just going to get a few hours sleep first.
At the moment I'm actually pretty confident that we will hit two mafia today, UNLESS SOMEONE STARTS HATING ON SHIKYO AGAIN. PLEASE DON'T.
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On May 27 2009 14:36 l10f wrote:
We can do it! We just have to get two mafias, and hope that Shikyo isn't one. If he is one, I believe it's too late anyway to change anything. Your call.
Shikyo isn't mafia. Yet another night went by without him ordering a single hit on any of our DT's, who he knows the identity of. And no way in hell would he come up with that stupid mafia hitlist.
Tbh if this is the worst town ever it's probably also the worst mafia ever.
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Ok. I've done some analysis on chaoser. Check it out and let me know what you think.
+ Show Spoiler [Behavior Analysis] +So I looked over chaoser's posts to see if I could spot anything weird. I'll take crate's advice this time and won't point out everything that would make sense if he were mafia, but rather try to find weird things to do as townie. Here's what stood out to me: On May 22 2009 00:48 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2009 21:24 EsbenPM wrote: Oh, and i don't think we decided on a final plan regarding confirming townies, but the best idea from my perspective is having a vigi linked to a kill, so we have a confirmed townie in him to rally arround i guess.
As for calling out hits it could help give an idea of who mafia is targetting, to help the medics for the next night. there's no way for a vigi to get linked to a kill unless the vigi died. Or if the vigi was called on to kill someone at night and in the day that person got killed by the vigi. The problem with that is that the mafia could kill that person as well. So the only real way is if there is an 100% sure red, the vigi calls him out, asks for medic protection, and then kills the mafia member. but now you have a liability and he basically needs to be protected every night and he doesn't even have a real role anymore. The best people in roles of leadership are either a DT or a vet with a clean hit record (never hit yet). Hmm.. The bolded part is weird. Why would he oppose getting a confirmed townie that much? Doesn't have a real role, how does that matter? he also neglects to mention the possibility of having 4 kills in one night, but that could be a honest mistake. Also, "needs to be protected".. How about CAN be protected because it will more or less be guaranteed blocking hits from the mafia? That is MUCH better than not knowing at all who the mafia will hit. This won't be the last night where mafia didn't get three kills. Ra.Xor.2 wrote: Many people have already mentioned that the other mafiaso seems sneaky so i wont go there. However, the one that killed Jim seems to be extremely brutal judging from his repeated blows to the head. This could be a reference to Chaoser (from the chaos in his name), Adriix33 (his quote says lifes a bitch. then you die.), or JeeJee (who's quote mentions fear several times). But here's the kicker. Ra.Xor.2, one of our safest mafia bets atm, tried to link chaoser to the clues. Wth. On May 26 2009 09:03 Shikyo wrote: That being said, chaoser really doesn't seem like a mafia right now, and I'm willing to take the chance with another, better suspect like BWdero for now. Shikyo, could you elaborate on your thoughts about chaoser? And then when our double lynch comes, chaoser even discourages lynching both omG.[RaYnE] and Shikyo: chaoser wrote: Also, in regards to Shikyo, really? you guys want to kill the mayor when clearly NO REAL BLUES have died? I HIGHLY doubt, a mafia as mayor would not have DESTROYED this town by now. All the clues to him are weak and every single "behavioral analysis" of him has been weak so far. At most he hasn't stepped up like the mayors of the past (Ace, ect.) but that doesn't mean he's mafia. chaoser wrote: To JeeJee:
Firstly, you're going to feel shitty as fuck when Shikyo gets lynched and he's green cause congrats, you just killed your own green mayor! His behavior is nothing like a mafia member and with no clues pointing at him at all you're going to lynch him just cause he's doing a SHITTY job? If a mafia was in office so many blues would be dead it's not even funny. To do a shitty job and to actively hunt for blue is not the same. Rethink your plan. I'm pretty sure that EVERY mafia at this point would want Shikyo dead. I'm actually surprised that they didn't bandwagon him more, but then again I don't feel that the mafia has played very well in this game. But for a mafia to go out and DEFEND the green townie? Yeah right. That's all I could get out of chaoser's posts, really. The only suspicious post I could find was the one about the vigi plan. And that could just be lack of research/or a hastily written post on his part. That doesn't make him mafia. + Show Spoiler [Accusations] +Then motbob goes on making a case on chaoser, connecting him to softer's murder in the park. Let's look at this. motbob wrote:First: clue analysis. Show nested quote +Walking through the park in the darkness, Softer began to think he was being stalked, so he hid in the bushes. The figure that had been following him began to search the thicket, and Softer panicked and tried to bolt towards the park's exit. However, before Softer could get away, his stalker whipped him forcefully in the back. Softer flew to the ground, where vicious stomps to the back of the neck took his life. I believe this clue points to chaoser, if only because of the act of whipping. The use of the word whipping could be a reference to a sharp blow to the back, but in this case I believe that it points to something specific; it is a clue. Chaoser's public profile reads thusly: (12:22:39 AM) krimson: SON (12:22:44 AM) krimson: IM the ninja trainer (12:22:46 AM) krimson: i train ninjas (12:22:47 AM) ostrich: wtf (12:22:52 AM) ostrich: you're a pokemon trainer (12:22:57 AM) krimson: POKEMON ARE NINJAS You can clearly see where whipping fits in there. Trainers <> whips. I've looked at everyone else's profile. No one has anything that ties in nearly as neatly with "whipping." When has pokemon trainers ever been associated with whips? Even though you couldn't find any other matches doesn't mean that this has to be one. It could be a red herring, or simply a connection that Pyrr found and you didn't. motbob wrote: Second: vote analysis. chaoser has a 100% bad voting record, except for the sheriff election, where he voted for a now-dead blue. However, this vote was cast AFTER Shikyo had received a convincing majority. At that point, the race was between JeeJee and JimTudor for second place (or so it seemed at the time.) Others had described JeeJee as a "veteran player." (I don't know if this is true or not) and it seems conceivable to me that Mafia would see JeeJee as a worse alternative to JimTudor as mayor. chaoser's 100% bad voting record, well, that goes for me as well. I've voted for all of our green/blue lynches up until now. I agreed on lynching therapy too. Does that make me mafia? Bad judgement does not equal red. And Jimtudor was also a veteran player. Is it not possible that chaoser thought that JimTudor was the best choice? Jimtudor was town-aligned, so you can't make any conclusions from this. motbob wrote: Third: post analysis.
chaoser did extremely superficial clue analysis. He merely bolded passages that were "interesting" to him, without actually connecting the passages to anyone. There is one exception: he threw a great deal of suspicion onto Jayme, in multiple posts.
chaoser is mafia. It is clear as day. I just went through the same posts, and I didn't see anything spectacular. Keep this in mind: this is a game for new players. There are PLENTY of misread clues throughout this whole thread, including clues as crepuscular, BWdero's sound waves, my clues on RaYnE, the therapy clues, ALL the clues we had on Jayme. I do agree that his choice of passages to bold was poor. But take a look at the other clue analysis we've had, were they not just as poor?
So in my opinion, the fact that he stood up for Shikyo BY FAR outweighs the petty mafia accusations we have been able to muster on chaoser. And in addition, our top suspect and next lynch connected weak clues to chaoser. So because of that:
I want the town to NOT lynch chaoser today.
But chaoser, we really need your answers here too. Any particular reason for why you voted for omG.[RaYnE]? I think you voted for BWdero in order to save Shikyo, which I did as well. So that's reasonable.
Also, to repeat my encouragement to Shikyo: Shikyo please let me/us know what you were basing your opinions on when you stated that you didn't think chaoser was mafia.
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Oh, I meant to say the name of this top suspect in my conclusion, that would be Ra.Xor.2.
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yeah I was going to ask you to confirm it but I guess I don't have to do that then ><
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Ok, with chaoser done, I'm moving on to Pawsom. Let's see..
+ Show Spoiler [Behavior] +Ok. Pawsom, like most of the other players in this game, keeps making bad calls on clues and overlooks things when he comments on confirmed townie and medic lists. But that could be said about many of us. The first weird thing I noticed when going through his posts was this: Pawsom wrote: [about double lynch] I don't know dude. Seems like a waste to me. If we double lynch on day 2, we still might not be sure, or close enough to sure about certain players. Also, how does that give us a higher chance of hitting red? We'll have a higher chance once there are less players, and once we have more clues. So he's against double lynch. I can't see how he doesn't understand how 2 lynches instead of 1 means we have better chance of hitting a red. But oh well. This could also be a weird townie call so I won't put that much weight on it, especially since in the end we probably would've benefited more from postponing the double lynches for a day. crate wrote: Right now my dumb players list includes Raxor, Pawsome, The_Master, Koopie (well...), and l10f. Even though it's been 5 days since you wrote that post, if you could, it would be great if you would elaborate on this, crate. Pawsom wrote: Green tie seems very, suspicious, but It's hard to link it to one person. Also, softer died by being stomped on the neck, this and the tie seem to correlate well. I know we've been making weird clue connections all over the place in this game, but come on. First of all, it was a flashy tie, not a green tie. And to connect a man in a tie to another murder which involved the neck area? That has got to be the most farfetched clue connection I've seen in this game so far. And that says a lot. That's basically all I could get out of his posts. He did another weak and pointless clue analysis but it's no good evidence, so I'll leave it.
+ Show Spoiler [Voting Pattern] +Now this is where things get interesting, and why I bothered to look into him at all. Let's take a look at yesterday's double lynch. Pawsom wrote: I vote for shikyo, even if he is a towny, hes not helping at all.
Haven't decided my second vote yet. If you are townie you just made the biggest mistake you have ever done in this game. "Oh hey guys why don't we lynch our mayor? So what if he's townie, it's not like he's useful!" What this looks like to me is a mafia trying to cover up the fact that he's voting for the townie mayor. No town-aligned player would say something like that, giving up three votes in our favor and lynching a bodyguard protected player, unless he strongly believed that the mayor was mafia. Pawsom seemingly didn't care about Shikyo's alignment.
+ Show Spoiler [Clues] +At first, many of us connected Pawsom to the crepuscular sentence, along with Jayme. But the DT's checked that, and crepuscular wasn't a clue. So there would have to be something else. The thing is, Pawsom basically has nothing to make clues out of. An SCV-icon and his nick is basically all we have to work with. I had no idea where to start. I couldn't think of anything in these clues that could connect to Pawsom, probably because Pyrr has made a connection to his nickname that I have failed to see. But then I got a PM from JeeJee the other day, who was questioning Pawsom's status as well. At first I disregarded his clues, as I didn't think they were any good. But with today's post, they actually were. JeeJee wrote: Let's look at Pawsom. Empty profile, empty quote. All we have is his name. What the heck is his name anyway? Googling it gives nothing. What do we have left? My whole analysis hinges on the fact that Pyrr looked at his name and thought "Possum".
Day Two (DISCLAIMER: this whole day is a problem as only two killers are mentioned, out of 7 mafia. Hence it's my belief that pyrr does not separate mafias by the killers, but rather uses descriptive words that point to them instead) Possums happen to be big fans of various vegetation and garbage as sources of food. If you live in the suburbs and haven't seen them rifling through someone's garbage or chomping on cute flowers, you haven't lived there long enough (or perhaps you sleep at night). I'm of course referring to the figure searching the thicket. Here's the kicker, and why the disclaimer above is important. There's no possum in the world that can 'stomp' on someone's neck, since they weigh like 10 pounds.
Day Three Another place you can find possums running around at night (if you happened to be an adventurous child) is in various tunnels, under bridges, and so on. Naturally, I'm referring to so no fek's trip in the depths of the town's sewer system. Now, it beats me how the desk relates to this, if it does at all, but then i also don't understand what a desk would be doing in the frigging sewers to begin with. The ruffling of pages though could potentially refer to a possum's hiss, although I doubt it.
also his posts are queer. i'm too lazy to outline that in here though Keep in mind that this was said before the recent day post though. So I did some research to try and find some connections with today's murders. Wikipedia: "Playing possum" is an idiomatic phrase which means "pretending to be dead" Day 4 Post: So, when his front door opened to reveal an odious figure soaked with the stench of death, vx70GTOJudgexv welcomed the man If that's even a clue it's more probable that it's pointing to epicdoom, but oh well. I'll get to the point. I did find one highly plausible clue on Pawsom in today's day post. So if there's only one mafia per kill, the stench of death could refer to playing possum. Anyway, take a look at this: Day 4 Post: The killer removed explosives from the pouch at his waist and placed them around vx70GTOJudgexv's house. Pouch was the word that immediately stood out to me. Keeping explosives in a pouch? Well, it all makes sense actually. Wikipedia: A possum (plural form: possums) is any of about 69 small to medium-sized arboreal marsupial species native to Australia, New Guinea, and Sulawesi (and introduced to New Zealand and China). Then I checked out the marsupial species: Wikipedia: Marsupials are an infraclass of mammals, characterized by a distinctive pouch (called the marsupium), in which females carry their young through early infancy. Could it be any clearer? Thanks to JeeJee for pointing out Pawsom -> Possum for me.
So there you have it. With emphasis on his "so what if he's townie" vote on Shikyo, and the pouch clue from today's post: Pawsom is mafia. Please lynch him along with Ra.Xor.2 today.
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Well the clue part wasn't really my main point :p Although I still find them weak. I think you're drawing lines between animal handlers and pokemon trainers too quickly, seems farfetched. We had clues on every other lynch we've done up untill now, yet we haven't hit a red. And the "bolding out what's interesting" could be for many reasons:
1) he didn't want to make an actual effort and read through the profiles 2) he was afraid to accuse innocents and reap the consequences for it later 3) he didn't find anything that fit to what he bolded
all of these are things townies could do.
What makes me sure chaoser is town is the fact that Ra.Xor.2 tried to link him with clues earlier in the game, and that he stood up for Shikyo, neither of which would make sense AT ALL if he was red.
motbob wrote: Oh wait, that was teks, not JeeJee.
JeeJee found Pawsom -> Possum, I found pouch -> possum. Cooperation!
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Actually I find Mew -> chaoser more likely than whip -> chaoser ^^
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I think you're so obsessed in finding clues that point to chaoser that you're missing the entire point.
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That wasn't the point. The point was that he can't be mafia because:
1) Ra.Xor.2 tried to connect him with clues 2) He protected Shikyo when he easily could have bandwagoned him, killing off our green townie
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LOL WHY do I keep writing that. I did that earlier too. Green mayor ofc :p
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On May 27 2009 22:45 motbob wrote: Also, the clue with the crucifix points squarely to Ra.Xor.2. But where does the "long blond hair" mentioned in the clue fit in? There are enough other parts of the clue to point to him that it doesn't matter (religious references -> "child of god", references to darkness, etc.)
Where does the double-barreled shotgun point to Pawsom?
I guess this is just how Pyrr writes his clues (with lots of red herrings).
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On May 27 2009 22:48 motbob wrote:Also, this has got to be the most pliable clue in the deck right now: Show nested quote +Deep underneath Fluidville, So no fek was searching the depths of the town's sewer system for traces of mafia activity. Holding a blazing torch aloft to find his way forward, he slowed as he heard a sound like the shuffling of pages. He peered around the corner and saw an empty desk, then looked down to see the blade that had pierced his rib cage from behind. So no fek tried to turn to at least get a glimpse of his killer, but he couldn't muster the energy as the blade slipped back out of his chest. I was sure it was Judge, but obviously not. Any ideas?
I have no idea who that points to. But the clue has to be one (or more) of these words: sewers, pages(book), desk.
I'm also pretty amazed that we have made no progress on the salesman/cannonseller. Seems so easy to figure out, yet it's not :p
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On May 28 2009 00:34 JeeJee wrote: they're barking up the completely wrong tree. but at this rate they'll have climbed every fugging tree in the forest anyway.
Yeah it almost seems as if they WANT to kill off the townies first. Oh well, good for us!
I'm pretty confident that they won't even get two kills the next night, unless they go for inactives again.
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On May 28 2009 02:06 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On May 28 2009 00:42 teks wrote:On May 28 2009 00:34 JeeJee wrote: they're barking up the completely wrong tree. but at this rate they'll have climbed every fugging tree in the forest anyway.
Yeah it almost seems as if they WANT to kill off the townies first. Oh well, good for us! I'm pretty confident that they won't even get two kills the next night, unless they go for inactives again. Of course if we fail to kill any mafia then they can get 2 kills easily lol
We won't.
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On May 28 2009 03:31 Shikyo wrote: what the, you have a list of 9 people, one of which being me, so we have 7/8 mafia there? O_o Really shouldn't screw this one up...
Actually there are 13 people.
But out of those 13 there are 4 I'm pretty confident in being town-aligned, one of them being you. So 7 out of MY 9 suspects are mafia. How the hell can we screw that up? Well I'm sure plenty of people don't necessarily agree with my list, and we still lack three roleclaims.
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Update to the missing list: ydg has now roleclaimed.
Missing:
epicdoom clazziquai
I've PM'ed them both.
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Hmm motbob does seem suspicious. I'll have to look through his posting history tomorrow.
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On May 28 2009 07:58 ydg wrote: Oh nice catch on Pawsom, I was wondering why everyone was voting for him, lol.
If he is mafia though, then I've been looking at clues the wrong way, which was the first thing I said in this thread, we have to see if the clues are description-linked or personality-linked, and I've been trying to link them personality-wise...
Yeah the thing is, since we haven't hit any mafia yet, the only clue we KNOW right now is the one pointing to me. And that is only one sentence. It may not even be sure that Pyrr makes the clues about the mafia in the same way, since he has the opportunity to link more than one person at a time, while vigi hits only can refer to that single vigi.
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clazziquai and epicdoom have roleclaimed. That means that everyone left in this game has roleclaimed. Yay!
So details about my list. There have been NO blue claims too many, which means:
1) The Blues I have are 100% confirmed unless one of the real blues was dumb enough to claim townie due to not trusting me, and the godfather conveniently was of that very same role, and had the balls to claim it, even with the chance of overflowing. NOT likely. 2) The GodFather is in the townie list 3) ALL the mafia are in the townie list, which means that SEVEN (not six, clazziquai ^^) of those 12 claims are mafia. And I'm decently sure I know atleast 2-3 safe townies on that list as well, making it at worst 7 out of 10.
To address your post, clazziquai:
clazziquai wrote: So we have a fairly good chance on hitting a mafia member via voting and our last vigilante kill.
We have no vigilante kill left. I used mine on zeks, which is why I've been confirmed as townie, and EsbenPM is dead.
clazziquai wrote: Anyways, who are our primary suspects? And what is our next intended action?
Atm the top suspects are Pawsom (relatively close to 100% mafia), Ra.Xor.2 due to obvious clues and suspicious voting, wurm (also suspicious voting + clues), and ydg (ask Foolishness on this one).
Our next intended action is to lynch two mafia and win the game. If you could read through like the 3-4 last pages you'd have a good view on who we suspect/accuse, just look for the nice spoiler tags and bold font.
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