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About Jayme: You all seem SO disappointed on Jayme turning out green. When we lynch SOLELY based on clues (which, by day 2, we basically have to rely on), we are bound to miss. What sucks is that we don't know for sure how Pyrr writes his clues, hopefully we can work better with the clues after our first mafioso lynch.
You all seem to think that we are doomed because we lynched a townie, an inactive one at that. I think it's a good result for day 2. The town found too suspicious of Jayme to just let him be, we would never be sure of him, and it's not like we had any other prime suspects (perhaps except iLoveKTF, but that was brought up too late).
This game will start to take shape on day 3 results, imo. We will probably have 3 more clues to go on, and a double lynch too. What I feel is important is that people don't jump to conclusions solely based on clues. We can't waste lynches now, we HAVE to connect clues and behavior, possibly also voting patterns if we find anything useful. What would be the best is that if any of you suspect someone, build a sure-fire case before presenting it, instead of just throwing accusations all over the place. Shikyo's post is a good example on building a case on iLoveKTF, which in my opinion is much stronger than any of the suspects we have had so far.
We all seem to think that one single word is a clue (crepuscular, Erlend Loe, zerg creep, slump etc.), I don't think that's how it works (but we can't know for sure until we confirm it, like I stated). I think there are mafia profiles that we need to work out, based on their appearance, their killing method, their attributes, etc.
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I'd like to take a moment to speak to the medics.
With the turn of events, please wait as long as possible before submitting your night action. Let the town discuss a bit before making your decision, instead of protecting someone you may find unneccessary or unwise to protect by the end of the night (for instance protecting iLoveKTF who may be getting modkilled).
The longer you wait with submitting an action (obviously do it before night time is going to end, don't try to stall the game), the more information you will have that can help you decide who you want to protect, or who you think the mafia will hit that night.
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Ok, it's finger pointing time. I've been working on a case for a while now, I didn't want to say anything until I had gathered more information, so please bear with me as I bring up old quotes and old arguments to try to form a behavior pattern of the suspect.
I accuse zeks of being the Godfather. I think that he is the person who is organizing the mafia kills, which would also make sense seeing how he is one of the most active persons in the thread. I'm going to divide this post into three parts, in order not to flood the entire page. I'm going to focus on behavior, because the voting patterns up till now are too weak to rely on, and there doesn't seem to be any blatantly obvious clues pointing to zeks (which would explain why he is taking risks). If needed be, I can bring these two points in to strengthen my case later on, as I do think there is SOME material to work with in those two departments as well.
WARNING! This post is going to be lengthy, but know that I worked alot on this, so I ask that you atleast skim through it to see if I'm onto something here. It COULD be vital for the town's gameplan.
+ Show Spoiler [Behavior] +The first piece of information I want to convey is two PM's I received from zeks before the night to day 2. These are unedited, except that I added a (nick) in front of each PM so it's easier to see who's saying what. This should, like any PM history, be read from the bottom to the top. + Show Spoiler [PM conversation] + (teks) I don't TRUST anyone to be honest. Not even you But I'm pretty positive that Shikyo isn't mafia. And JeeJee has had me convinced. Jury is still out on Jimtudor I guess - I don't trust him yet.
----------------------------------------- (zeks) Original Message: do you trust all 3 of - Shikyo, JimTudor and JeeJee?
----------------------------------------- (teks) Original Message: atm I'm suspecting Foolishness, Phelix and softer. Mostly based on laying low and votes though, it's hard to judge them with the low activity level we are having at the moment.. I really hope we manage to draw people out.
----------------------------------------- (zeks) Original Message: who are you suspecting behaviour wise?
At first, I was kind of wondering why he was asking me this all of a sudden, we hadn't talked any at all in PM's prior to this. But I had nothing to hide, I layed out who I suspected, he got the information, and I never heard from him again. What do I make of this? zeks thinks I'm a possible medic. He was asking around (it would be entirely possible that more of you received the same kind of PM's) to find out who the medics were least likely to be protecting. So in my case, I was suspicious of Foolishness, Phelix, softer and Jimtudor. Then what happens? Oh yeah, softer and Jimtudor dies. Yes, my suspicions were WAY off, but that's not the case here. If I was going to go on a stretch and assume that I was the only one he talked to, I would think that either Foolishness or Phelix got hit too that night, but it was either blocked by one of them being a veteran, or a medic. I'm thinking the first. Or maybe they just chose someone else randomly in order to not bring up too much suspicion, or they stacked hit's on one of the targets (Jimtudor?). Either way, two of my suspects died that night. I'm going to go over his posts now to point out any inconsistencies, irregularities or possible mafia behavior. + Show Spoiler [Quotes Part 1] +zeks' first post was made on page 8. On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote: I don't agree with lynching an inactive the first day. Since this is a newbie friendly game, those with blue roles might be more inclined to stay lurking since they know they have an important role and don't want to die so early. Oh what do you know, he's against lynching an inactive. What a surprise. What I have been seeing with new players is that his scenario doesn't fit at all. The inactive ones are, as I see it, usually townies who are disappointed in not getting a role, and feeling that they don't have anything to do, so they get bored with it. The new players who end up with a blue role tend to be more eager and active because they feel that they mean something. On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote: I remember when I was a medic (many times) all I thought about was staying alive so I can at least be able to contribute with protections each night - thus I stayed quiet and only communicated through PMs. I probably should have gone over his behavior in previous games before making this post, but I haven't. I'm sorry. If anyone wants to do that go right ahead. Either way, that sure isn't how he's playing now. I'm assuming this means that he has changed attitude, and no longer feels that this is the best way to play a blue role, if that is the case I would think that he, as a useful town aligned person, would encourage the new blue players to stand up for themselves, not just explaining why they would be inactive. The other possibility is of course, that he isn't a blue. Then, in his first post, he also made his statement that he would be running for mayor. His plans are not anything spectacular, but there are tidbits that can be discussed here, for instance the fact that he is opposing the vigi plan to get a confirmed townie: On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote: I think Crate brought up a great point about the trouble of getting a confirmed towny. The vigi plan has some flaws though. The vigi can't roleclaim and announce his hit to the whole town because a mafia could just do the same. I noticed in the day post that the mafia don't have names. So we wouldn't really know if a new vigi has come out and performed his announced hit. So he is basically disregarding the whole idea because the mafia doesn't have names (why would they have names? Have they ever had names in any previous games?). He is completely disregarding the fact that if a red player was hit, only a vigi could be behind it, and that vigi should have no problems with both pointing out the clues leading to himself, and get the support of the people he reached out to prior to his hit. What I make of this is that he is against getting a confirmed townie through this method, instead of pointing out the flaws and suggesting another way of doing it, he just denies the whole idea. Next, he is opposed to getting a confirmed townie through medic protection, too. He states the following: On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote: Nowhere does it say that the medic will know the role of the person he has saved. I agree that it is more likely for a medic to save a mafia hit than a vigi hit, but as a medic in previous games myself, it's pretty hard to judge who is going to get hit every night (that or I was a horrible medic lol). Also, in the less likely case of saving a mafia from a vigi - the medic may mistrust the saved mafia for a good guy. It's true that if a medic protected a mafia from a vigi hit, there would be no way to know if that target was mafia or not. But he is completely disregarding the fact that vigis can't hit on night 1. He, as an experienced player, should know this. He is also going on about how hard it is to block a hit, blabla, we all know that. Obviously this plan wasn't meant to be a "hey let's just block a mafia hit, then we have our confirmed townie!" but rather IF a medic blocked a mafia hit ON THE FIRST NIGHT, that medic would be safe to talk to the townie in question. So zeks goes on to form his confirmed townie plan based on the supposed flaws of the medic and vigi plans: On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote: In the case that we do not get a successful block, then we should move on to another plan that I am suggesting: plan C.
c) Detective role-check Depending on how far we get with the medic plan, we might have to consider the ultimatum which is to have a DT rolecheck someone - which would be the safest way, unless you manage to unluckily land on the godfather; then theres no way back. The chance of landing on the godfather is slim though, so I deem this the safest plan and most viable after using trying the medic plan. What a surprise! He wants a DT to rolecheck "someone" and then roleclaim "safely" to that person. Now, who could this trustable person be.. Hmm.. Maybe he should just nominate himself, since he was the one coming with the idea, that won't be suspicious at all, right? We'll get back to this later, since this is a story that continues later in the thread. What is interesting is that he mentions this in his very first post in the thread. Clearly focusing on what he thinks is the best idea, since the chance of landing on the godfather is slim. That makes the end of his election speech. The rest of it was the same things the other candidates promised, let's kill all red and use double lynches blabla. So the thread goes on, and zeks encourages people to read his election speech. He also helps the town by making an inactive list, but this is something literally anyone can do, so I'm getting the feeling that he did this to show the town that he can contribute, and to warrant voting on him. If he was the mafia candidate, why did he not get elected, or why did he not get close? I think that the mafia either waited to see if he could draw any votes (which he tried desperately by several times asking people to read his platform), or they threw him a few votes to try to start a bandwagon. Neither of the cases worked out for them, so they basically abandoned ship when it failed, that's why you didn't see him getting 6 mafia votes. I still believe that one of the election candidates were mafia, and since Jimtudor turned blue, and I so far have no reason to suspect Shikyo or JeeJee, this all adds up. + Show Spoiler [Quotes Part 2] +On May 20 2009 02:49 zeks wrote: To be safe I suggest we try to find clues that may point to the inactives so we can have a better shot at hitting a red. I am also supportive if we were to lynch Jayme based on clues. Captain Obvious to the rescue! Again he is "contributing" to the town by stating something we all know already. Of course we should go on clues in addition to lynching an inactive. The fact that he wanted to lynch Jayme also corresponds with the Godfather view, since he turned out to be a townie. After that, he makes his first (in my opinion) real contribution to the town, by cooking up some clues pointing to therapy. My theory is that he saw the Jayme case as sure-fire enough that he would be lynched on day 2, because he already had so many clues attached to him, that he decided to bring in someone new. This is not any evidence by itself, but therapy being a townie also adds up to the equation. Then, the medic list are being formed. zeks is placed on all of them, despite not really contributing to the town apart from running for mayor and forming a clue pattern to therapy. Good job! You had me fooled as well. I guess if there is anyone who should be accused of posting loads of fluff it should be you, not Shikyo. On May 21 2009 03:14 zeks wrote: I just hope that the medics are listening right now and hopefully they won't deviate from the plan. Of course you would hope that, you wouldn't want the medics to protect your targets, after all. On May 21 2009 13:43 zeks wrote: We only had two deaths tonight, softer and Jimtudor. Obviously there are only two possible scenarios:
a) Stacked hits on either softer or Jim. b) Someone got saved. - I think this is more likely, and in this case, I believe someone on the medic list got saved tonight. No. Obviously, you are lying. As an experienced player, you knew about the possibility that a veteran got hit, and that it would be more likely than stacking hits on softer or Jim, who basically hadn't contributed at all. If anyone were to be stacked it would have been someone like softer or Judge, or even you. Luckily, crate calls him on it instantly, so no harm done. Dun dun dun! This brings us to my punchline. The continuation of his DT rolecheck plan. + Show Spoiler [DT Rolecheck Plan] +On May 21 2009 23:52 zeks wrote: I think the vigi plan has just too many flaws. The medic plan is viable and I really believe that someone got saved last night versus a vet taking a hit. Now, how far the town web has grown I don't know.
But if things get desperate and still nothing gets done, then we should go with the DT rolecheck. I think this is probably the safest plan but obviously has a great drawback of losing one rolecheck. I am willing to step up for examination, that is, you'd have to believe in me not being Godfather.
And so far there have been no clues against me afaik, but of course I'm not free from suspicion one bit. Should we try this? Up to you two DT's to decide. (Of course, if this does happen I hope only one of you rolechecks me) Basically this is a repeat of his plan in the election platform. He is probably correct that there are no clues pointing to him, but the mere idea of suggesting himself for this idea makes this that more suspicious. If he were to suggest the idea, then let's say, have the town vote on who they wanted to act as the mouthpiece, maybe it wouldn't be so blatantly obvious what is going on here. zeks has that much belief in the town not thinking he is the godfather that he is nice enough to step up! Aww, doesn't that get your eyes wet. So nice of him! Once again, he fooled me, but thankfully there were other more experienced players who quickly figured out the risks of his plan. chaoser, Judge, Shikyo, props to you! This is going to be the end of my behavior analysis. I could go on by talking about his consistent denial of the vigi plan, which at the moment is one of the best plans we got, but this post is lengthy enough as is.
So that's it. By sharing my case with you, I ask that zeks is removed from the medic list while we decide whether or not my case is strong enough. Hopefully we can come to an agreement before the night is over, and if needed be, he can be placed back on the list.
I am basically laying my spot in this game on the table here, if zeks turns out innocent I take full responsibility and will let you lynch me if you see it fit. But do know that I wouldn't accuse an active and experienced player without gathering what I see as plenty of proof. This is all up to you, town, what do you think of my case?
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Edit: I meant to remove the part where I said "I'm going to divide this post into three parts, in order not to flood the entire page." I was going to do that at first, but it got so long that I decided to skip it for now, and focus on behavior. Sorry about the confusion.
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On May 23 2009 21:28 So no fek wrote:I think this is a very solid behavioral analysis, and I honestly hope that it turns out to be accurate in the end. I haven't really contributed too much, because I'm terrible at both clue analysis, and behavioral analysis, however, I'd like to add that there are currently 5 mafia kills (including the mods), and if you were to assume that it's 1 mafia per kill (which is likely, given that people die at the same time in some of the posts) and Pyrry is rotating through the mafia (meaning that a mafia won't get a second clue until every other mafia has a clue), then there are currently clues pointing at 5/7 mafia. That means that if Zeks is mafia, there's a very very good chance that there's already a clue pointed at him. So, I checked his profile. Not really much there. He's from Canada, has "@ University of Waterloo", and states that winning is the only thing. I couldn't match any of those to any of the clues, so I took the next step and googled his name. And there we go. http://www.zeks.com/Compressed Air solutions. Show nested quote +Without warning, his windshield shattered and a wave of glass ripped through LTT's face. Passing out from blood loss, LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time. With no previous warning (meaning LTT likely didn't see anything), his windshield shattered in, with considerable force (to have ripped into his face like that). I'm honestly on the fence about this clue pointing towards Zeks. It's so very obvious that this could have been caused by a blast of compressed air, and that's why I'm on the fence. Day 1 clues are supposed to be hard, nearly impossible to solve, but this was so easy. The only reason I could see Pyrry using a clue this easy (if it does in fact point to Zeks), is that it's a noobie game, and not very much was expected of us. So take it as you will, with a grain of salt. I was merely linking a possible clue with someone suspected because their behavior is pretty far off.
Yeah if I were to link possible clues to zeks that would be the one I would choose as well. I also did some research on Waterloo / Napoleon but I couldn't really find any matches. If zeks is involved in any of these clues, I'd think it'd be the compressed air one.
What I think of the clues so far is that there are 5 clues pointing to 4 persons. I also think that zeks isn't pointed to in the clues because of the risk he took on the DT rolecheck plan, and I guess it could be seen as plausible for Pyrr to clue to the mafia first, then the GF? I dunno.
I will make a post of my clue analysis soon, but it's really hard to fill in the blanks before day 3, so I don't really have all that much, and I am in no way sure that any of it is any good. Which is why I'm focusing on behavior patterns atm. I sure hope the next day post gives us some clues we can use to cross referance.
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wow it honestly didn't seem as you was going to reply I'll answer you after I'm done with my clue analysis. I'm also looking forward to seeing yours.
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You're right zeks, there are many people here from North America, so I find that there's also ALOT for me to catch up on after I've slept, since that's primetime for you guys
And yeah that post from JeeJee was great.
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OK, I'm going to post my clue analysis now. I feel that I learned a lot from MTF's clue analysis, So I'm going to borrow his template and try to work out some mafia profiles. When we know for sure how Pyrr writes his clues, I am going to do another analysis based on that.
I have bolded the parts of the day posts that I feel is relevant for these profiles.
Mafia A and B:
+ Show Spoiler [Mafia A and B] +Mafia A and Mafia B seem very much alike. If it hadn't been for the fact that the murders should have happened simultaneously, I would probably have combined these two suspects into one, giving us three clues on one person. Since this isn't possible, I'll add the day two clues to both of these profiles for now. Mafia A:+ Show Spoiler [Mafia A] +Day 1 Post: Behind Pyrrhuloxia, a figure crept closer. When Pyrrhuloxia lifted his hands from the railing to stir his decaffeinated coffee with a drumstick, the figure pushed him from behind. Pyrry flew over the sixth floor ledge to his death. Day 2 Post: Walking through the park in the darkness, Softer began to think he was being stalked, so he hid in the bushes. The figure that had been following him began to search the thicket, and Softer panicked and tried to bolt towards the park's exit. However, before Softer could get away, his stalker whipped him forcefully in the back. Softer flew to the ground, where vicious stomps to the back of the neck took his life. Notes: - "A figure", possibly not a human, so far unseen - Attacking from behind, possibly wielding a whip - Victims stomped to death, or fell to death, unable to take a look at the attacker Fitting suspects: - chaoser. Stealthy ninjas attacking from behind, not being seen? Plausible. But the killing methods, involving stomping, makes this kind of farfetched.
- omG.[RaYnE]. I'm basing this on the character Rayne in Blood Rayne, which I think is the most plausible link to omG.[RaYnE]. Quote from Wikipedia: "Due to that fact that Rayne was raised to be a powerful vampiric assassin that isn't supposed to show any sign of weakness to her opponents, she can seem cold, aloof, brooding, and even callous at times." The downside to this theory is that she doesn't seem to use a whip, on the contrary, she uses double blades.
- teks. Yeah, I'm not going to exclude myself, I have nothing to hide. I have a picture of Darkwing Duck in my profile. This would fit to the "figure" not being confirmed to be a human, but as far as I know, he doesn't use a whip. And no, the rope on the picture is attached to the helicopter, it would be a very farfetched link to this suspect, in my opinion.
Conclusion so farIf we retract the day 2 clues from this suspect, all of the suspects on the lists really make more sense because we can disregard the whip. But without the day 2 clue, we really have nothing at all to go on, except the killing method. A very stealthy being who knows how to get the job done without neither uttering a word or giving up his/her/its identity. The word figure implies that none of the suspects actually saw their murderer, so their physical identity still seems to be very much unknown. Mafia B:+ Show Spoiler [Mafia B] +Day 1 Post
Meanwhile, downstairs, Qatol was using the Triumvirate Building's spacious archery range for target practice. As he looked down to reload, another figure crossed the room from the other side. The mafioso crept behind Qatol and took out his knife. Qatol never shot another arrow. Day 2 Post:
Walking through the park in the darkness, Softer began to think he was being stalked, so he hid in the bushes. The figure that had been following him began to search the thicket, and Softer panicked and tried to bolt towards the park's exit. However, before Softer could get away, his stalker whipped him forcefully in the back. Softer flew to the ground, where vicious stomps to the back of the neck took his life. Notes: - A very fast (and perhaps stealthy) person, who is able to cross the "spacious" archery range in such a short amount of time (either that or Qatol just suck at reloading) - Wielding a knife and possibly a whip All I get from this is a being that is very fast and using weapons. I'm getting the feeling that we are dealing with a trained assassin/ninja or something like that. I feel that this suspects fits better with the day 2 posts than Mafia A, but we really don't know much about this person either, except for the weapons and physical speed/stealth. My suspect list: - omG.[RaYnE]. Again, Rayne from BloodRayne. I don't really know how fast she is, or wether or not she has a knife or a whip, but she does use weapons.
- chaoser. Again, chaoser is connected to this via the ninja clue. I'd probably rank him higher on the suspect list for this one than RaYnE.
Mafia C:
+ Show Spoiler [Mafia C] +Day 1 Post:
In the parking lot, LTT, the love child of the late L and Samsung Khan's captain, read an Erlend Loe novel in his Audi sports car. Without warning, his windshield shattered and a wave of glass ripped through LTT's face. Passing out from blood loss, LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time. Notes: - Something or someone able to shatter a windshield - Passing out from blood loss implies that the attacker did not finish what he started, possibly leaving LTT before he was confirmed dead. Sloppiness or confidence in his ability? Maybe the attacker doesn't have any direct physical abilities? Suspect list:- zeks. Credit to Shikyo and So no fek for this one. www.zeks.com is a company who produces compressed air pumps, which could possibly be used to shatter the windshield.
- BWdero. He has a picture of the comic character Black Bolt. Black Bolt's ability is this (quoted from wikipedia): "He has a super sonic scream that can destroy almost anything, even if he whispers." Yeah, that's right. This guy is super powerful, but I imagine a whisper could take care of the windshield here. If he does show up again on day 3, it should be very easy to link the clues together.
- iLoveKTF. This has also been brought up before. It's the sound waves in his profile, a picture of the cover of some album, it's not really important. It's still sound waves. I imagine that if Pyrr were to write clues about iLoveKTF, a character who uses sound waves to kill would be plausible.
Mafia D:
+ Show Spoiler [Mafia D] +This is, together with Suspect C, in theory the easiest to analyze. Day 2 Post
His door bell rang. "Who could it be at this hour?," he thought. A salesman in a flashy tie greeted Jimtudor from his welcome mat and began his pitch. Jimtudor tried to close the door in the man's face, but the man swiftly jammed a metal bar in the doorway and used it to pry the door open, then bash Jimtudor in the head till he died. Notes:- A civilized man who uses the doorbell. - At this hour? Very early in the morning perhaps? I'm not sure if this is relevant information. - Salesman in a flashy tie trying to sell something - may have become upset when Jimtudor didn't want to buy anything/listen to him. - Wielding a metal bar Suspect list: [list] [*] I10f: I believe it was Shikyo who told us about Britney Spears' perfume, Believe? Anyway, it fits to the salesman profile, him trying to sell Britney's perfume. [*] Ra.Xor.2: I'm not going to quote his whole profile information, but it's basically what seems to be a missionary speech, so I'm thinking that the salesman could actually be trying to convert Jimtudor, or make him believe in God, whatever. So a religious fanatic who got angry when Jimtudor tried to shut the door before he could finish his pitch, seems plausible.
So that's basically what I've got so far. I hope that day 3 will bring us more clues so I can try to fill out the profiles more, and we're still missing some mafia in the clues. I also do think that it's a mistake of us to try to link people with oneword clues like "crepuscular" "Erlend Loe" or "drumstick" (yeah I know that one was quickly disregarded, but still).
In my opinion we should be focusing on the bigger picture in the day posts, trying to build profiles of the attackers assuming that this is how Pyrr is writing his clues.
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On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: Town is in utter chaos. Massive finger pointing at almost every suspect possible. Reading things out of context. Drawing implications out of the air from the slightest behaviour changes. All assumptions without any solid evidence. We're basically unable to agree on anything. Someone comes up with a long post and boom I'm now a suspect. But I guess Teks you've done a damn good job on me.
Well I'm trying my best to avoid this massive finger pointing, any real accusations I make (such as this one on you), I make after long consideration and a lot of reading. If this accusation is inaccurate, I'm sorry, there is no way for me to be sure of anything before they are dead. :/
And this "solid evidence" you speak of, what would that be? Clues? Too early to point out a sure clue at this point imo. Just see what happened to Jayme that everyone was so sure of. Voting patterns? Everyone has agreed on every vote we have had up until now. Nothing to read there.
What remains is behavior, which I have done my best to objectively view in the eyes of a mafia, and it all came together. If that isn't strong enough proof for you, I'm sorry. I don't know what else I could have done, really.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: Teks, do you think you're so good that if I were a GF I'd pick people off your list? Your analysis has barely any good content and usually you're just restating other peoples points. I don't think I'm good at all. This is my first game, I'm just trying to be productive and helpful. I know that this is basically a list of other people's points, that's what makes a case. I can't invent points other people have said before me, but they still count.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: Why would a GF kill people you suspect? If anything if I were a GF I'd leave them alive because I know they are green, and if you were town of course you'd be in shit trying to figure out if they're green and I could kill off others.
You'd leave them alive because you know they are green OR blue. You can't know that they aren't important to the town.
If you believed that I was a medic, my suspect list would be a good place to start picking victims, because I'm not very likely to protect them. Is it a coincidence that 2 of the 4 people I said I suspected died that night, and the third could also be on that list? Possibly. There's no way to be sure, the point is that it all adds up.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: Why would I think you're a medic? Wouldn't I ask who do you trust rather than who do you suspect? It's true I've been asking about people's suspicions, I won't lie.
The reason I think you picked people off of my list is because you thought I was a medic. I don't know why you would think that, but it was the option that made sense when I thought about why you're asking me these questions. Asking who I trust wouldn't give the same results, even if I trust someone they're not necessarily likely to get hit, or likely for me to protect.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: I asked you guys a question, you answered it. If you asked me a question, I answered it too. Teks you never asked me anything, and you're suspicious so why do I have to keep the PMs going?
You're the one who PMed me out of the blue, suddenly asking those questions, then after getting answers, not talking to me again. If you think I'm suspicious, why would you even talk to me at all?
It's possible that this is how you play the game, by PMing many different people to try to understand where they stand and what they think. If this is the case, I'm sure I'm not the only one you have been talking to in PM. This would be a good time for other people to confirm this, did anyone else receive similar questions?
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: Show nested quote +So he is basically disregarding the whole idea because the mafia doesn't have names (why would they have names? Have they ever had names in any previous games?). He is completely disregarding the fact that if a red player was hit, only a vigi could be behind it, and that vigi should have no problems with both pointing out the clues leading to himself, and get the support of the people he reached out to prior to his hit. What I make of this is that he is against getting a confirmed townie through this method, instead of pointing out the flaws and suggesting another way of doing it, he just denies the whole idea. Okay, I admit my mistake there. I still disagree with the vigi plan because of how hard it is to orchestrate it. And yes if you were wondering, in past mafia's people had names. No I am not against a confirmed townie, because I suggested the DT-Rolecheck idea, and I listed pros and cons for all 3 ideas.
I didn't say you were against a confirmed townie, but that you were against a confirmed townie through that method (the vigi plan). The DT-Rolecheck idea is in another league, as you were basically stating that you wanted to act as the mouthpiece, which would obviously be in favor of the mafia if you were to be the godfather. As a mafia associated player, you would be opposed to getting a confirmed townie except if that townie were to be you. If your DT rolecheck plan was legit it would seem alot more sincere if you had suggested to organize a town vote on who the mouthpiece was going to be, instead of just stating that you wanted to do it.
And btw, maybe we can stop calling the medic and vigi plans for.. well, plans. They're not really plans because there will always be an element of luck involved. It was more in the likes of "if these things happen, it would be great", not "hey let's do this", except for the part where we encourage the vigi's to message a few people before hitting their target(s).
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote:Show nested quote +It's true that if a medic protected a mafia from a vigi hit, there would be no way to know if that target was mafia or not. But he is completely disregarding the fact that vigis can't hit on night 1. He, as an experienced player, should know this. He is also going on about how hard it is to block a hit, blabla, we all know that. Obviously this plan wasn't meant to be a "hey let's just block a mafia hit, then we have our confirmed townie!" but rather IF a medic blocked a mafia hit ON THE FIRST NIGHT, that medic would be safe to talk to the townie in question. Here is what I said: Show nested quote +...so I deem this the safest plan and most viable after using trying the medic plan. Page 8. I was in support of the medic plan, in fact I wanted that plan first before using my DT-rolecheck plan.
Just to be clear, I quoted you on that too, you make it seem like I left it out. Anyway, I got the feeling that you were so opposed to the chances of us getting a medic block, and you didn't even mention that vigi's can't hit on day 1, so to me you were basically saying WHEN we are done trying the medic plan.
You're saying you were in support of the medic plan? Doesn't seem that way to me. 1) You're saying this: "Nowhere does it say that the medic will know the role of the person he has saved." 2) Then, you go on to state this: "as a medic in previous games myself, it's pretty hard to judge who is going to get hit every night" 3) "Also, in the less likely case of saving a mafia from a vigi - the medic may mistrust the saved mafia for a good guy." You're right, you did point out all the flaws. You just didn't point out the good things about it. That being that the first night is vigi free, and that a vigi (hopefully) would state in the thread that he was blocked after making a hit, so that no medic's would trust the one who was protected.
Normally, this wouldn't be a big deal, but for an experienced player, I would have expected you to point these things out.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote:Show nested quote +...pointing out the flaws and suggesting another way of doing it, he just denies the whole idea. Show nested quote +So zeks goes on to form his confirmed townie plan based on the supposed flaws of the medic and vigi plans: Don't contradict yourself.
Ok, I shouldn't have said "denied the whole idea", that was exaggerating. Sorry.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: As for my pitch for mayor: If I were mafia do you know how dangerous it would be for me to run for mayor that late? First I'd be sticking my head out for suspect and second I'm probably not going to win. If I had pleaded my case for mayor earlier (around when JeeJee or Shikyo did theirs) I think I'd have a legit shot for a spot. I ran for mayor so town can see other options: I never expected to win at all. How could I win when I had my election speech as first post? I wasn't involved until page 8 when things have already boiled up.
Any mafia who wanted in at that point was going to have to stick their head out. As I said early in the thread, I would think that the mafia would take time to organize before running for mayor. And there are always late candidates, it can't be expected that people will be online at the exact time the game starts. There were candidates after you as well (.. I think? ), that doesn't necessarily mean that person is red. If I was unclear in my original post, I'll try to state it clearer this time: I don't think that any person joining the election race is mafia. But there would be many reasons for mafia to join in that late. That's all.
Show nested quote +Captain Obvious to the rescue! Again he is "contributing" to the town by stating something we all know already. Of course we should go on clues in addition to lynching an inactive. The fact that he wanted to lynch Jayme also corresponds with the Godfather view, since he turned out to be a townie.
After that, he makes his first (in my opinion) real contribution to the town, by cooking up some clues pointing to therapy. My theory is that he saw the Jayme case as sure-fire enough that he would be lynched on day 2, because he already had so many clues attached to him, that he decided to bring in someone new. This is not any evidence by itself, but therapy being a townie also adds up to the equation.
Then, the medic list are being formed. zeks is placed on all of them, despite not really contributing to the town apart from running for mayor and forming a clue pattern to therapy. Good job! You had me fooled as well. I guess if there is anyone who should be accused of posting loads of fluff it should be you, not Shikyo. Why don't you find me someone who suggested lynching an inactive AND with clues pointing to them? People were agreeing on me because I came up with the idea, while people like you only thought of lynching based on inactivity OR clues.
I believe you when you say that you came up with the idea, my point was that it's explanatory. Oh, is inactivity+clues better than just inactivity or just clues? Who would have thought. I guess no one mentioned it because they didn't think it was necessary to state something that obvious. At that point, we hadn't even started (seriously) analyzing the clues.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: I'm placed on all the medic lists because I am trusted by the town. My suggestion for therapy was a reply to BWDero when he wanted a name out there - so I gave him one. And Shikyo was pretty quick to support me without any reason.
You're placed on all the medic lists because you are active, and active people are good for the town. Just like me. For instance, Jimtudor was on the medic lists, yet many people didn't trust him. He was on my list as well, and I said to you in PM that I didn't trust him yet. The point is that active people are better to protect than inactive ones. Why Shikyo supported you isn't up to me to respond to, but for the record, I agreed on you at that point too. It was the best idea at that time, which probably says a lot about how little we had to go on at that time.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: Show nested quote +I guess if there is anyone who should be accused of posting loads of fluff it should be you, not Shikyo. Trying to protect Shikyo while attacking me at the same time?
Busted? ^^ Nah, I was just remembering someone using the same phrase I was going to use, "posting a lot of fluff and no real content".
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: Show nested quote +Of course you would hope that, you wouldn't want the medics to protect your targets, after all. The plan being the medic list? Yes. Was this not what you meant? Because the quote I used was in the middle of the discussion of the medic list.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: Show nested quote +No. Obviously, you are lying. As an experienced player, you knew about the possibility that a veteran got hit, and that it would be more likely than stacking hits on softer or Jim, who basically hadn't contributed at all. If anyone were to be stacked it would have been someone like softer or Judge, or even you.
Luckily, crate calls him on it instantly, so no harm done. I didn't lie. I will admit to this mistake that I missed the veteran possibility. If this is enough to warrant me guilty then so be it, but that was just my misunderstanding.
Ok. I probably shouldn't have said lied, but you were so sure in your case that the two possibilities you brought up were "obviously" the only scenarios. You being an experienced player, it's weird that you didn't think of a veteran hit. Of course, this alone isn't any proof, anyone can forget something or post too hastily. But it all adds up, which is what I'm getting at.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: Show nested quote +Basically this is a repeat of his plan in the election platform. He is probably correct that there are no clues pointing to him, but the mere idea of suggesting himself for this idea makes this that more suspicious. If he were to suggest the idea, then let's say, have the town vote on who they wanted to act as the mouthpiece, maybe it wouldn't be so blatantly obvious what is going on here. zeks has that much belief in the town not thinking he is the godfather that he is nice enough to step up! Aww, doesn't that get your eyes wet. So nice of him!
Once again, he fooled me, but thankfully there were other more experienced players who quickly figured out the risks of his plan. chaoser, Judge, Shikyo, props to you! What have chaoser, Judge, Shikyo figured out that I didn't say in my own plan? Do tell. I was the first person to bring up the godfather possibility.
They encouraged DT's NOT to roleclaim to you, because they didn't want to take that chance. You, on the other hand, was obviously willing to take it (which would also make sense if you were townie aligned, I'll give you that). The fact that you brought up the godfather possibility doesn't mean that you aren't one. If you hadn't mentioned it, you would have been called on it right away.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: I don't give a FLAMING FUCK if I'm removed from the medic list. The medic list meant shit from day 1. It's just a stupid list of who posts the most (see the correlation of most posts -> medic list? I do too!). I didn't feel ANY safer than I would be not on the medic list. Wow. Strong words! Anyway, if that's how you feel I guess we all agree on removing you from the medic list then. If you are green or blue, the mafia will probably use this opportunity to try to take down one of the most active players in this thread, since you probably won't be protected tonight. At this point, if you make it through the night, I'm afraid the suspicion on you won't be any less. I'm sure you also know that.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote:
If you look at teks arguments with quotes on me, he chooses the stuff he wants to quote, and leaves out the rest because it contradicts his arguments. Read my posts again and you'll see different than what he has posed.
That wasn't my intention at all, and I'm sorry you took it that way. This time I have made sure to quote everything you said. I didn't quote EVERYTHING you wrote because that would be too much irrelevant information, like I said, you did post alot of fluff. I was trying to pick out the important parts of all your posts. You pointed out one of my contradictions, I'll give you that. Sometimes I use too strong words.
I too will join in on your encouragement: Read his posts again. By all means, read the whole thing if that helps you guys take a stand in this matter. Believe it or not, but this isn't some devious plan to frame you.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: Show nested quote +I am basically laying my spot in this game on the table here, if zeks turns out innocent I take full responsibility and will let you lynch me if you see it fit. But do know that I wouldn't accuse an active and experienced player without gathering what I see as plenty of proof. This is all up to you, town, what do you think of my case? Lol and the cherry on top: the ultimatum to everyone. By the time you get lynched it'd be night 4, and if you are TOWN like you say you are, then we'd probably have hit 0 mafia till then, which is pretty much game over.
I don't want to be lynched. I was stating that not as an ultimatum, but to say that I believe in my case, and to state that I am indeed risking myself by accusing you, someone who actually fights back, as opposed to the inactive ones we have been lynching. If I manage to sway people to believe me, getting you lynched followed by you turning green/blue, I'm sure people won't be happy with me. And I wouldn't blame them for that, this was my goal after all. They will surely think that I am red, and make clue connections all over the place. If that is what the town sees fit at that point, so be it.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: What are you trying to pull an iloveKTF? Except you're smarter than him I admit. You're not going to go down that easily right? You're going to "take responsibility" on a failed lynch, rather than requesting a mod kill.
You're just trying to make it seem like you have nothing to lose, putting your life on the line, empathizing with the majority of the town.
I'm not trying to pull anything, and I won't request a mod kill. I just wrote it the way I saw it, these are serous accusations being made to an active and experienced player. If I'm wrong I'll take responsibility for my errors. That's all I'm saying.
If it makes you feel better, how about this: If zeks dies and he is not red, please don't lynch me even though I was fighting for this case. Try to understand why I came to my conclusion, then choose whether or not you think I'm red.
On May 23 2009 22:51 zeks wrote: That ends my rebuttal for teks. If you want me to cover anything I didn't, by all means feel free to call me out again. I will be following up with my clue analysis later on today or tomorrow, and I assure you, mine will be WAY MORE spectacular than what teks has told you.
Phew, finally done answering. There's not really anything else I can bring up at this point, except that I'm looking forward to seeing your clue analysis, especially after your promise on it being WAY MORE spectacular. Can't wait
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On May 24 2009 03:44 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2009 23:13 teks wrote: I saw in the other mafia game going on that they were talking about rolechecking the losers of the election, as it would be a big chance that atleast one of them would be mafia. Interesting that you were the first person to bring this up way back on day 1. Let's assume for a second that at least one of the candidates that ran for office in our game is mafia (a relatively reasonable assumption). Now all that's left is to figure out who it is. Say zeks is indeed mafia like everyone is claiming. What does he have to gain from killing JimTudor the first night? Only the fact that a townsperson is dead. zeks has played in past mafia games so we know he is not a first timer and has some idea of what's going on. It is very common to rolecheck and suspect losers of the election. If he killed JimTudor during the night, that would make him prime suspect for this case (as we have just seen). Honestly what a stupid move on his part. He kills the competition (JimTudor was suspected by many many people), now he's the only one left that looks suspicious. Do you think zeks is this stupid (gj crate)? Seems unlikely.
Yes that is a reasonable assumption that zeks would know that he would be a suspect. But also consider what I said and what they were discussing in the other game, rolechecking the losers. I'm sure I don't have to remind you that the godfather is immune to rolechecks. After rolechecking and disregarding zeks, the way to suspecting the elected people - Shikyo and JeeJee, would be much shorter than if they had to work through Jimtudor as well. And to the mafia, I'm sure this town would seem gullible enough to believe that zeks isn't the GF, and with no clues leading to him on day 1, they could be feeling safe that he wouldn't be found out.
Either that, or maybe he just saw this as a good chance to get rid of Jimtudor before he got to prove his innocence, because he could have been a useful person to the town.
By the way, did noone read through my clue analysis? Was it that useless?
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On May 24 2009 04:34 SugiuraMidori wrote: First... I want to thank teks for that well laid out clue analysis, and even noting things that I had not researched.. really nice job.. just be careful the mafia doesn't get too scared of you and remove you from assisting us :/
Yay! I'm so paranoid that I actually think I'm dying every night. I made my clue analysis now instead of tomorrow because in the case that I die tonight, I wouldn't have left anything unsaid. Hopefully I'll live through the night (Hi medics) so that I can keep working on it tomorrow. Day 3 clues should be nice
Good going on the distance analysis by the way. I didn't notice that. And yes I SHOULD treat the mafia as distant, since that's what they are to me ^^
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While I'm happy with the effort Shikyo is putting in to this, I have to say that I would like to see some more from JeeJee.
By the way, I propose a new medic list:
- crate
- vx70GTOJudgexv
- teks
- SugiuraMidori
- Foolishness
- ydg or chaoser
I'm not responsible for the final list, but this would be my suggestion.
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Yeah I didn't even mention any clues leading to zeks in my post because frankly, if they are any, they are way too weak to base anything on.
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On May 24 2009 06:58 ydg wrote:Show nested quote +On May 23 2009 23:34 teks wrote:OK, I'm going to post my clue analysis now. I feel that I learned a lot from MTF's clue analysis, So I'm going to borrow his template and try to work out some mafia profiles. When we know for sure how Pyrr writes his clues, I am going to do another analysis based on that. I have bolded the parts of the day posts that I feel is relevant for these profiles. Mafia A and B:+ Show Spoiler [Mafia A and B] +Mafia A and Mafia B seem very much alike. If it hadn't been for the fact that the murders should have happened simultaneously, I would probably have combined these two suspects into one, giving us three clues on one person. Since this isn't possible, I'll add the day two clues to both of these profiles for now. Mafia A:+ Show Spoiler [Mafia A] +Day 1 Post: Behind Pyrrhuloxia, a figure crept closer. When Pyrrhuloxia lifted his hands from the railing to stir his decaffeinated coffee with a drumstick, the figure pushed him from behind. Pyrry flew over the sixth floor ledge to his death. Day 2 Post: Walking through the park in the darkness, Softer began to think he was being stalked, so he hid in the bushes. The figure that had been following him began to search the thicket, and Softer panicked and tried to bolt towards the park's exit. However, before Softer could get away, his stalker whipped him forcefully in the back. Softer flew to the ground, where vicious stomps to the back of the neck took his life. Notes: - "A figure", possibly not a human, so far unseen - Attacking from behind, possibly wielding a whip - Victims stomped to death, or fell to death, unable to take a look at the attacker Fitting suspects: - chaoser. Stealthy ninjas attacking from behind, not being seen? Plausible. But the killing methods, involving stomping, makes this kind of farfetched.
- omG.[RaYnE]. I'm basing this on the character Rayne in Blood Rayne, which I think is the most plausible link to omG.[RaYnE]. Quote from Wikipedia: "Due to that fact that Rayne was raised to be a powerful vampiric assassin that isn't supposed to show any sign of weakness to her opponents, she can seem cold, aloof, brooding, and even callous at times." The downside to this theory is that she doesn't seem to use a whip, on the contrary, she uses double blades.
- teks. Yeah, I'm not going to exclude myself, I have nothing to hide. I have a picture of Darkwing Duck in my profile. This would fit to the "figure" not being confirmed to be a human, but as far as I know, he doesn't use a whip. And no, the rope on the picture is attached to the helicopter, it would be a very farfetched link to this suspect, in my opinion.
Conclusion so farIf we retract the day 2 clues from this suspect, all of the suspects on the lists really make more sense because we can disregard the whip. But without the day 2 clue, we really have nothing at all to go on, except the killing method. A very stealthy being who knows how to get the job done without neither uttering a word or giving up his/her/its identity. The word figure implies that none of the suspects actually saw their murderer, so their physical identity still seems to be very much unknown. Mafia B:+ Show Spoiler [Mafia B] +Day 1 Post
Meanwhile, downstairs, Qatol was using the Triumvirate Building's spacious archery range for target practice. As he looked down to reload, another figure crossed the room from the other side. The mafioso crept behind Qatol and took out his knife. Qatol never shot another arrow. Day 2 Post:
Walking through the park in the darkness, Softer began to think he was being stalked, so he hid in the bushes. The figure that had been following him began to search the thicket, and Softer panicked and tried to bolt towards the park's exit. However, before Softer could get away, his stalker whipped him forcefully in the back. Softer flew to the ground, where vicious stomps to the back of the neck took his life. Notes: - A very fast (and perhaps stealthy) person, who is able to cross the "spacious" archery range in such a short amount of time (either that or Qatol just suck at reloading) - Wielding a knife and possibly a whip All I get from this is a being that is very fast and using weapons. I'm getting the feeling that we are dealing with a trained assassin/ninja or something like that. I feel that this suspects fits better with the day 2 posts than Mafia A, but we really don't know much about this person either, except for the weapons and physical speed/stealth. My suspect list: - omG.[RaYnE]. Again, Rayne from BloodRayne. I don't really know how fast she is, or wether or not she has a knife or a whip, but she does use weapons.
- chaoser. Again, chaoser is connected to this via the ninja clue. I'd probably rank him higher on the suspect list for this one than RaYnE.
Mafia C:+ Show Spoiler [Mafia C] +Day 1 Post:
In the parking lot, LTT, the love child of the late L and Samsung Khan's captain, read an Erlend Loe novel in his Audi sports car. Without warning, his windshield shattered and a wave of glass ripped through LTT's face. Passing out from blood loss, LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time. Notes: - Something or someone able to shatter a windshield - Passing out from blood loss implies that the attacker did not finish what he started, possibly leaving LTT before he was confirmed dead. Sloppiness or confidence in his ability? Maybe the attacker doesn't have any direct physical abilities? Suspect list:- zeks. Credit to Shikyo and So no fek for this one. www.zeks.com is a company who produces compressed air pumps, which could possibly be used to shatter the windshield.
- BWdero. He has a picture of the comic character Black Bolt. Black Bolt's ability is this (quoted from wikipedia): "He has a super sonic scream that can destroy almost anything, even if he whispers." Yeah, that's right. This guy is super powerful, but I imagine a whisper could take care of the windshield here. If he does show up again on day 3, it should be very easy to link the clues together.
- iLoveKTF. This has also been brought up before. It's the sound waves in his profile, a picture of the cover of some album, it's not really important. It's still sound waves. I imagine that if Pyrr were to write clues about iLoveKTF, a character who uses sound waves to kill would be plausible.
Mafia D: + Show Spoiler [Mafia D] +This is, together with Suspect C, in theory the easiest to analyze. Day 2 Post
His door bell rang. "Who could it be at this hour?," he thought. A salesman in a flashy tie greeted Jimtudor from his welcome mat and began his pitch. Jimtudor tried to close the door in the man's face, but the man swiftly jammed a metal bar in the doorway and used it to pry the door open, then bash Jimtudor in the head till he died. Notes:- A civilized man who uses the doorbell. - At this hour? Very early in the morning perhaps? I'm not sure if this is relevant information. - Salesman in a flashy tie trying to sell something - may have become upset when Jimtudor didn't want to buy anything/listen to him. - Wielding a metal bar Suspect list: [list] [*] I10f: I believe it was Shikyo who told us about Britney Spears' perfume, Believe? Anyway, it fits to the salesman profile, him trying to sell Britney's perfume. [*] Ra.Xor.2: I'm not going to quote his whole profile information, but it's basically what seems to be a missionary speech, so I'm thinking that the salesman could actually be trying to convert Jimtudor, or make him believe in God, whatever. So a religious fanatic who got angry when Jimtudor tried to shut the door before he could finish his pitch, seems plausible. So that's basically what I've got so far. I hope that day 3 will bring us more clues so I can try to fill out the profiles more, and we're still missing some mafia in the clues. I also do think that it's a mistake of us to try to link people with oneword clues like "crepuscular" "Erlend Loe" or "drumstick" (yeah I know that one was quickly disregarded, but still). In my opinion we should be focusing on the bigger picture in the day posts, trying to build profiles of the attackers assuming that this is how Pyrr is writing his clues. Hey, I did something like this a few pages back :p, but I was just listing names that might have some relevance, and I was trying to bias the inactives since I remember softer and Jimtudor mentioned a lot about inactives, so I thought mafia was trying to hide in inactivity. Anyways, on mafia A, interesting catch on chaoser, but I firmly believe that this refers to omG.[RaYnE]. First, it strongly seems like a vampire, as a night-stalker, especially since there are lots of references to the night (though this may be because it's night haha). Also, BloodRayne does indeed have a whip, though it is like a harpoon; "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rayne_(Bloodrayne)" "In addition to her ability to jump more than 20 feet into the air and running unnaturally fast, she is also strong enough to fire assualt rifles in each hand at different targets and pull her foes towards her using a wrist-mounted harpoon in order to feed on their blood." Also, the text specifically said "neck," which again can refer to vampires. I suppose it can refer to chaoser as a ninja, but the only clue I see that relates refers to the stealth of the ninja, and so I think the clues better fit Rayne. My attempt at behavior analysis (I'm no good), Rayne is inactive. One vote away from being modkilled, and Rayne posts in the thread " " This seems to indicate that Rayne, though "inactive" votingwise, is still paying attention in the thread. Chaoser, on the other hand, seems to genuinely be helping the town. But again, we shall see when day comes which of the two the clues better stack up against, or maybe it's even someone else. On mafia C, I think the connection to zeks is kind of weak. But between BWdero and iLoveKTF, I think the clues are more stacked towards BWdero (though only one clue). I first thought that this mafia was a bomber, but with the reference to sound, "a horn that would not be heard in time," I can see how it refers to sound waves. So between BWdero and iLoveKTF, I think that BWdero is a better fit. First, his character is a superhero that can emit large sonic bursts; thus he does not have to be present to use it. This can be shown in that the mafioso is not there when LTT dies, perhaps he is far away, whispering? Again, letting LTT die from the blood loss can seem to indicate that he is the hero, since the hero doesn't seem to have any killing power besides sonic booms. iLoveKTF, on the other hand, only has sound waves in his picture. I suppose you can generalize the same as BWdero, but with only soundwaves, we can't really tell. Again, this depends on if this figure appears again the next day, as he only appears once. On mafia D, sounds good, but as I said before, it could also be epicdoom, as epic doom music is characterized as "a style of doom metal that is characterized primarily by its vocal style; vocalists typically employ clean, operatic and choral singing. Lyrics and imagery are typically inspired by fantasy or mythology, while the drumming is performed in a bombastic fashion." "clean vocals" can refer to the civility (word?) of the man, and bombastic drumming can refer to the flashiness of the tie. But of the salesman, I don't know, I guess we have to wait and see if he turns up again.
Thanks for the response
I basically agree with you on everything, except the part on epicdoom. I'm not saying he's innocent, but I don't think the clues are THAT complicated that you need to be able to convert a flashy tie to bombastic drumming. But I guess epicdoom could also apply to the windshield shatter, again using sound, atleast I think that's more plausible than him being the salesman. Also, the salesman could possibly link to iLoveKTF, trying to convince Jimtudor why KTF is the best / pitch KTF kind-of. Just a thought.
On all of the cases, we basically have to have more clues before we can come to conclusions. This is merely the start of our clue analysis, on day 3 and 4 we will be able to connect the clues and build more solid profiles on all of our suspects, some of them will be easier than others. I'm pretty positive that we will be able to get a pretty good clue connection to atleast one mafia on day 3.
I also think the zeks link to Mafia C is a stretch. I just mentioned it because it is a possibility. I have most faith in BWdero being the link there, but again we need more clues before accusing anyone.
And nice information on BloodRayne, a vampire being night active is something I should have thought of :p. Also the focus on the neck area. Nice catch. I'm not really sure on the harpoon and whip though. It seems like a stretch.
So which suspect do you think the Day 2 kill on Softer was? A or B? Or someone new?
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Edit: oh wow two nice and long posts were made while I was writing. I'll read and respond.
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OK. You bring up some valid questions, crate. I'll try to respond to those who regard me.
crate wrote: He sent me the same PM.
I want to know how many people he PM'd and what their responses were.
That doesn't come as a surprise to me. I also want to know who else was PM'ed.
crate wrote: teks: the problem I have with your analysis is that you seem to postulate that zeks is GF, then take that as an axiom in your posts. "Look at how all this information makes sense if zeks is GF."
Yes. This is how I did my behavior analysis, reading through his posts and trying to see if they would make sense in a mafia point of view. As Shikyo says, how else was I supposed to do it? Wouldn't it be the same if I turned it around? Why would he neglect mentioning a veteran hit as a possibility for the third hit? Why would he encourage the medics not to "deviate from the plan"? Why would he ask me who I think are suspicious without even requiring any reasoning for it? Why would he wiff away the GF argument in his DT rolecheck plan like it was nothing? Why would he not mention that vigi's cant hit on night one when he talked about the confirmed townie?
crate wrote: Since you bring up lack of contributions so much teks--give me a list of every single person who you felt made significant contributions on day 1. And day 2, if you feel up to it. If you want me to do the same, I'll go look back through the topic for you and do it. This is a good point. At Day one, it is very hard to make a valid analysis on anything, and basically the only contribution that can be made is making plans and teaching new players any methods we could use etc. I'm sure 90% of the posts are utter crap, including my own. But atleast I feel that I have contributed this night.
To answer your question directly though, no I'm not going to go through the thread and look for significant contributions. I've been skimming through the thread and writing analysis all day, and I feel that I've had my share for today. If you are implying that I used zeks' lack of contribution as an argument for being GF, I only did that because I, earlier in the thread, had the feeling that he was doing a lot for the town, but when I read through the posts, I saw that he really didn't. I guess I was just expecting more from an experienced player? Atleast on day 2.
crate wrote:Show nested quote + teks wrote: I was just remembering someone using the same phrase I was going to use, "posting a lot of fluff and no real content". That was me. I stand by my initial assessment of Shikyo's day 1 posting.
I'm not going to argue with you on that. I think we all posted a lot of fluff on those days, and I can't be arsed to go through Shikyo's posts right now.
crate wrote: Not a single one of these cases has teks benefiting from calling to be lynched (except maybe the one where teks is GF, but I think that's so unlikely there's basically zero chance it's true).
You're right, it doesn't benefit anyone.
crate wrote: Just ignore his [teks's] call to be lynched please, he's not thinking soundly here. The only cases where this declaration possibly makes any logical (as opposed to emotional) sense are the cases where both zeks and teks are mafia. I don't think they're both that stupid right now.
Don't be swayed by emotional arguments people, that's bad for the town.
teks please don't make stupid emotional appeals that make no sense logically. I don't want to pick them apart so easily, there's no sport in it.
Yes. Please ignore that call. You are right, it was an emotional argument (if you can even call it an argument), which I shouldn't have said at all. I was trying to convey that I knew about the consequences which could come if I was wrong, and that I would understand people being suspicious of me if that were to be the case. The town wouldn't gain anything on lynching me, and neither will I, so I too want to retract that statement.
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Ok, you may be right. I'll be sure to keep that in mind the next time I'm doing a behavior analysis. But I think both me and Shikyo pointed out illogical behavior for a green/blue.
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Yeah I can't take this suspense. f5f5f5
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I can tie the clues to my kill myself:
Day 3 Post Zeks thought he heard the falling of a tin can and swiveled his chair to try to find the source of the noise. But, when he tried to stand up Zeks felt his strength dissipate rapidly and he collapsed to the floor, dead.[/QUOTE]
About Darkwing Duck: Darkwing's main weapon of choice in his crime-fighting escapades is his gas gun, which functions much like a grenade launcher. It fires grenades with a variety of different gases (smoke bombs, laughing gas, tear gas, etc.), as well as some more direct offensive weapons (including boxing gloves and cartoon bombs). Source: http://dic.academic.ru/dic.nsf/enwiki/1304963
I obviously made the wrong call by hitting zeks. I did this because I had the feeling I may not live through the night, and that I should do my best to hit the top suspect. I really waited as long as I could before sending in the order, to let crate get some time to work on his analysis and to let zeks have a chance to post his clue analysis, which he promised, but never gave.
I believe zeks was the best suspect we had, but you could of course say that I should have waited until the next night with hitting anyone.
All I can say at this point is, atleast he wasn't a blue. I really believed in my case, which is why I went in for the kill.
About the confirmed townie, the only thing we know for sure is that there was a vigi hit this night. That means either me or EsbenPM (unless someone else wants to roleclaim vigi? Wouldn't be a good idea for mafia). EsbenPM is dead so he obviously can't tell us whether or not he sent in a hit that night. I can. I also sent out a PM to Foolishness, JeeJee and Shikyo at the same time. The clues are clearly pointing to me. I was the one accusing zeks in the first place.
Even if I were to be the confirmed townie, I no longer know who to trust or not to trust. Basically all my theories and ideas so far have gone to hell. If you gave me information, I'm honestly not sure who I would be able to share it with or not. I could share information from the DT's publicly, sure, but that's really the only thing I can think of.
But the one thing I do want to ask of you, is that you don't waste a lynch on me. I may have wasted my hit and killed a townie, but don't punish me by wasting a lynch. We need those lynches now if we want to win.
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