EPTMy reason for believing you are mafia is really quite simple, elimination rule. I don't think Shikyo or JeeJee are mafia, and I do expect mafia to have one of the top contenders in the election. This is obviously not enough to lynch anyone, and I don't see that happening yet either. We could all be wrong, we could end up with mafia in our office, but that will be something we will have to deal with if it comes to it.
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teks
Norway263 Posts
My reason for believing you are mafia is really quite simple, elimination rule. I don't think Shikyo or JeeJee are mafia, and I do expect mafia to have one of the top contenders in the election. This is obviously not enough to lynch anyone, and I don't see that happening yet either. We could all be wrong, we could end up with mafia in our office, but that will be something we will have to deal with if it comes to it. | ||
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On May 20 2009 08:44 l10f wrote: I heard editing posts wasn't allowed in Mafia somewhere :o That's correct, which is why I made a new post instead of editing my original one. | ||
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On May 20 2009 09:35 Foolishness wrote: JimTudor is a top spot in the election? o.O he is behind by 4 votes which is a lot at this stage in the game. Well, he was at first, but as suspicion grew on his part, people abandoned him. It's not really the end result that matters, if he was the mafia candidate, it is entirely possible that they feared all the attention and decided to dissolve the plan, spreading to the other candidates. Jimtudor wrote: Well, then I don't have much to defend against... Other than the fact that I sure hope that Teks elimination number game is wrong and that for all the 'top' contenders for office, one should be mafia. It's not just that, you know. It is this post from JeeJee that made people suspicious of you: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=93562¤tpage=10#186 Together with, while being active, not really contributing to the thread other than in self defense. About the lynch, oh well, atleast we didn't hit a blue. I don't think we were doing anything wrong here, like zeks said: zeks wrote: If you can point out anyone else worth lynching day 1, then please tell everyone (or at least convince JeeJee/Shikyo) that you're worth living, rather than giving up so easily this early in the game. Although he was active after his name was brought up, I don't think we lost anyone of importance (sorry mate :/ Hope you can take this as a learning experience!). vx70GTOJudgexv wrote: If we move to lynch an inactive again, I'd like to see clazziquai be part of our options. His lack of posting is seriously raising suspicions for me, considering he's been in prior games. I agree on this one. If we're lucky, we may even find (more) clues pointing to him. About the medic list, I liked Shikyo's (because I was on it.. :p). Naw just kidding. We should have a list though, consisting of the active posters. I guess the list can be made quite a bit larger than the amount of medics we have, as it would seem unlikely that the mafia would strike anyone at that list when they know there are several persons being protected on it. Unless they stack hits. I'm not liking crate's list (no, not because I'm not on it), as I don't agree on putting neither iLoveKTF or Jimtudor on it. Neither of them have really contributed to the thread apart from running for office and trying to clear suspicion made about them. We already have Jimtudor as a suspect, I'd rather protect someone else. If he dies and turns out to be blue/green, well that sucks. But at this point there are other people I'd rather save. The only people I'm sure that we should put on this list are these three (I'll leave it to other people to decide whether or not I belong on this list):
And that leaves some spots for some or all of these candidates:
I thought I would be finding more people to put on this list, but I honestly didn't. So I guess the discussion will focus on the medic list for a bit now. I'd like to propose this as the first question that we discuss: How many people do we want on our medic list? 4? 6? more? | ||
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On May 20 2009 18:02 Pawsom wrote: Also, how does that give us a higher chance of hitting red? We'll have a higher chance once there are less players, and once we have more clues. Well.. If we have a strong case against two players, and we lynch both of them, we have a greater chance of killing off a red. I'm just saying that if we wait until there are few players left, it's probably going to be too late, even if it will be easier to hit the mafia then. If we end up lynching blindly without any clues, that's another case though. But come day 2 we really should be making connections and assumptions if we want to win this. | ||
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On May 21 2009 04:07 Shikyo wrote: I think we should vote for double lynch if we get at least one or hopefully 2 good matches with clues that would go along with relatively suspicious behavior. If we get absolutely nothing, though, we might have to save the double lynch for day 4, although that feels really late considering the size of the game. Keep in mind that we have two double lynches, and can use them on consecutive days. So we can use them on day 3 and 4 (have to vote for it on day 2 and 3). I think we should do this, but we can talk more about this when day 2 arrives. | ||
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On May 21 2009 13:46 vx70GTOJudgexv wrote: his stalker whipped him forcefully in the back. Softer flew to the ground - I know he was on a few medic lists, but teks has a picture of a duck "flying" through the air with a rope (which could be used to whip someone). This isn't the first potential clue we've linked to teks, we've also had Zerg (creep), Norway (Erlend Loe). I personally don't think he's a lynch suspect yet, but we should keep an eye on him. Aww  Guess I better make some sort of defense speech? The Erlend Loe clue I've adressed several times before, probably just a red herring. But with one of the three Norwegians dead, I guess this ties closer to me now than it did before. In this department, it would be stupid for me to expose myself further by killing off softer. The rope in my picture is attached to the helicopter, otherwise mr. Darkwing would hit the ground awfully fast :p The Zerg link could apply to so many people that I don't think it's an actual hint. Too many people with zerg chosen.But by all means - do keep an eye on me. I don't mind! ydg and Crate: Nice clue analysis. I like it. I'm also in favor of a double lynch vote, and I guess lynching Jayme is the best option we have now. | ||
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I do agree though that the most likely event is either veteran or medic protection. Out of these two I think a veteran hit is the most plausible, unless one of our medics actually striked gold on selecting target.. Which obviously could happen, but it's hard to do. | ||
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I'm thinking veteran hit then. If this is the case, they probably won't bother to hit him again, since he's basically just a townie with a fancy blue title now. Which also means that the veteran is safe to roleclaim. | ||
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On May 21 2009 21:58 BWdero wrote: Not really. For starters, how in the world would the veteran confirm himself as veteran? And even if he could I would think mafia would want to kill a confirmed townie. I didn't mean as a confirmed townie, as you say, that wouldn't work. I was thinking more in the lines of.. clearing up the discussion on what happened with the third hit. Now, the mafia could pose as the veteran in question, but I don't really see that happening - since the real veteran can expose that plan and they would have a suspect in the limelight. What I said probably came out wrong, what the veteran does really doesn't matter THAT much. I'm just saying that it would be safe for him to talk about it now since he isn't a threat to the mafia anyway. On the other hand, mafia may want to take another hit on him the next night just to stop him from telling us about it, but this isn't likely either - since we would see that he flipped veteran and figure out what happened anyway. | ||
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On May 21 2009 23:52 zeks wrote: And so far there have been no clues against me afaik, but of course I'm not free from suspicion one bit. Should we try this? Up to you two DT's to decide. (Of course, if this does happen I hope only one of you rolechecks me) I wouldn't mind doing this, but how do you suppose we can overcome these possible flaws: 1) Knowing whether or not the DT's who rolecheck you are real 2) Presenting the results of the rolecheck in this thread WITHOUT giving up the identity of the DT's to the mafia, which would lead to them getting whacked the next night (unless protected by the sheriff, but that has it downsides to it as well) 3) As you said yourself, you may be GF anyway - although it is unlikely.. Now, it's not like we can't do this without a confirmed townie, but it would make things easier. I say before we go through with this plan we should atleast wait until day 3 so the vigi's can make their hits, if one of them strikes gold we won't have to do this. | ||
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On May 22 2009 00:13 zeks wrote: 1) The DT would tell me my role. 2) I wouldn't have to disclose who's a DT anyway. I'm willing to act as the DT's mouthpiece and if we nail one then he'll turn red and you can trust me then. 3) Up to you guys to decide. There is no 100% foolproof plan, there's always a possibility that can fuck everything up. I'm basically playing a game of probabilities. Ahh I see. Thanks for clarifying  Guess you can forget about 1) and 2), number 3) is really only a subject because this is your idea, you know, it might be something a GF would do :p Statistically the chance that you are the GF is very, very low. When you pitched this plan I thought you meant that you wanted to receive roleclaims from _everyone_, which - obviously - would be a disaster if you were to be mafia. Handing over a complete blue list :p Now, if you want to receive the DT's attention, be rolechecked by them so they can trust you and rely information via you, that would be OK by me. If the information would prove to be false, we all know who to get, right? ^^ I originally wanted to do this on day 3, but I'm not so sure it's a good idea to wait after all. Now that the plan is public you are going to be a prime target for the mafia the next night. While we could use someone else, you're putting yourself in a very risky position if you aren't placed in jail/protected by medics the next night - so if we are going to do this, it would probably be good to get as much out of it as possible before the mafia can do anything about it. | ||
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I have a bad feeling about lynching Jayme, the clues just seem to easy and too obvious. But as long as he isn't standing up for himself I guess there is no harm in taking him down, and it's not like we have any other stronger candidates at the moment. I wish there wouldn't be such a bandwagon against him though, no real discussion was going on, everyone just jumped aboard. I guess the majority of the town won't be able to believe in Jayme's innocence before he's dead. I was considering changing my vote to abstain, but it won't make a difference, so I'll just leave it be. If he does turn up red I'll be surprised - but it would be a great start for us, and if he does turn out green or blue (let's hope he's not blue atleast), we should have some more material to work on, such as investigating the people who were pushing for his lynch (bandwagon starters). | ||
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vx70GTOJudgexv wrote: One thing that's confusing me about the people who are accusing Shikyo because jimtudor was on the medic list is they are only accusing Shikyo. You do realize jimtudor was on other people's medic lists (including my own), right? Yet the only one they accuse of any suspicion based on that is Shikyo. Not only that, but putting Jimtudor on the medic list was a GOOD townie call, and mostly everyone agreed on it. How on earth is that suspicious? 1) Jimtudor was a bodyguard, so his spot on the list was correct 2) He was hit by the mafia How would it benefit the mafia to put their own target on the medic list? "But teks, don't you get it? If Jimtudor wasn't on the list, the medics would protect him because they think he's likely to get hit. He's high profiled, yet not on the list!" Even if the list isn't "a list on who the medics should or should not protect, only a list of the people deemed important to the town" - this is a game with a lot of new players, chances are that the medics are new players as well. The safest call for the new medic players would be to protect someone on that list because they'd know the town would support that. | ||
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On May 22 2009 21:43 zeks wrote: Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia? Yes they would want a mixed list. Are you implying that the other people on the list are mafia, so that Jimtudor was needed on the list to make it mixed? There are many other people they could place on the list that would make perfect sense, as you say, there is no way they would fill it up with only mafia. But to deliberately place the target they ended up hitting on the medic list? I just don't see that happening. Those clues are very interesting by the way, Shikyo. I'll try to take a closer look on the clues we have when day 3 comes. Hopefully we can start gathering the clues and start making mafia profiles by then. (See this post in Mafia VIII for a good example on what we should be doing: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=93286¤tpage=83#1654 ) | ||
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On May 22 2009 23:06 zeks wrote: Because jim was a good enough contributer that he can't simply be ignored to be part of the medic list. So.. why are we even discussing this then? We all agreed on putting him on the list, and all of a sudden that's suspicious? And if he wasn't put on the list, that would be suspicious as well, right? | ||
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On May 23 2009 05:49 crate wrote: btw we don't get much info from the votelist for today because only epicdoom and me voted for anyone but Jayme today. There are a few people who refused to jump on the bandwagon early on, but at this point votes mean nothing anyway so who cares? I don't read anything in any votes made since Jayme got to ~15-16 votes. Hell there probably aren't enough active players among the people who have already voted to change the lynch vote by the end of the day even if we get someone roleclaiming mafia. We might be able to read something from who votes for double lynch, but I'm not certain of that either. Yeah, it wasn't the votes I was talking about, but rather the thread, finding the people most eager to lynch him, so to speak. Of course, this is no surefire method but it can give us a pointer on the ones we already suspect, check out where they stood in this matter. | ||
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