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On May 20 2009 12:24 LTT wrote: If 2 vigis stack hits, we will be sure to refund the hit of the second to send it in. Also all townies will be resurrected and be given 6 additional night lives. I like you so much.
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On May 20 2009 12:29 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2009 12:18 L wrote:On May 20 2009 12:13 Bockit wrote: L, that only works if we're killing Ace with our double lynch. Ace should never get hit during a double lynch because of pardoner status. Well two things can happen: a) The person Ace pardons is red and we have an auto-lynch for day 3. (we can even vote for another 2x lynch tomorrow if I'm reading the rules correctly if we have another definite hit for that day) b) The person Ace pardons is blue and he did us the favor of saving someone. The problem that arises is that persons judgment is up to the town. We could just use the DT to find out that guys role or just choose to not lynch that person assuming Ace is trying to trick us. Though thinking about it the ability for Ace to pardon tomorrow does make him more of a liability than keeping Ver alive. I honestly believe that Ver is not mafia. He hasn't even done anything as mayor aside from making an accidental lynch. We know he doesn't trust Ace this game so he probably wanted to see what Ace would say when he asked between myself and MBH.
I plan to push for another double lynch so we get ours done on days 3 and 4. As fast as possible to cut down kp so we last longer and get more clues. Basically the yomi situation you've set up is fucked because if he pardons a red and we think he's blue, we just took a mafia out of the gallows, but if he saved a blue and we think he's red, we need to kill again. Since we voted him for death the first time, its likely we will vote him for death again. A net delay of kill in ANY scenario.
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On May 20 2009 12:45 Bockit wrote: L your whole argument on the double lynch revolves around Ace being mafia/traitor. Take that out of the equation and you waste today's lynch. Lynch Ver now, and it's still possible to vigi Ace tonight, if we decide he is guilty. Then tomorrow the double lynch can take out 2 more suspects. By lynching Ver first, and vigi'ing Ace tonight later (if we decide to do so) we get more time to decide what we think about Ace. As to where I stand on Ace, at the moment I'm 50%. I can't decide if he's town aligned or not I keep flipping what I think in regard to him.
And no shit, if Ver flips red it doesn't mean Ace is innocent, I never said that. No it doesn't. The strategy for the lynch revolves around the double lynch and pardoner. The RISK that he's mafia makes this the proper move. This is risk management.
I've already asked the vig to hit ace tonight if he isn't lynched, but why depend on a single person?
You're asking questions like "is ace innocent", and I'm saying "i don't care". 50% suspicion is PLENTY. Lynch him. Find his colour. Look at the voting records. Look at his early supporters and people who joined the ace wagon late. Don't fucking delay the biggest treasure trove of information we have from being opened, and don't rely on a single person who may or may not make the hit. Vigilantes are unpredictable. Caller proved that last game.
And yeah, you ARE implying that ace is innocent. WHAT THE FUCK DOES IT MATTER WHAT VER FLIPS? IT TELLS US NOTHING. There's no additional info here. Pretty sure fusion's post drilled that into your head. Ace and Ver's rivalry today can be interpreted as sincere or an obvious mafia setup for a red-herring. You want to know why I know that? Because
1: I was saying the 3 musketeers would pull shit like that during day 1. They did.
2: Its what we did in.. every game as mafia prior to this. Standard damage control. Mafia scared one of their own looks too juicy a target? Start incriminating him. Get the ball rolling. Take credit for something town would have done and get confidence in that manner.
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The only thing Ver's lynch will tell us is circumstantial evidence regarding his voting record and some information about the people who voted for him. It won't directly implicate Ace except via Mynock. If it does implicate Ace via Mynock, we have, again, the same 3 musketeers scenario that my suggestion counters.
My plan is the BEST plan for going forward. It lets town kill mafia faster, get more information, hits the most likely targets. It is the most logical and straight forward path to victory and people are picking up on that.
VOTE FOR ACE AND DOUBLE LYNCH.
TOMORROW VER/DREAMFLOWER (unless we find someone better than dreamflower)
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I don't mind if the Vig hits Ver tonight at all.
I just assumed we can't depend on him to agree with me.
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My plan is perfectly logical. Keep lashing out mr cool cucumber.
No you didn't work with Mynock and Ver to get voted in. No there wasn't a hueg voteswing to you day 1. No YOU weren't the one that coined the term 'three musketeers' to cement the solidarity between you three. No you didn't defend both mynock and ver until day 2 started.
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On May 18 2009 03:28 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2009 02:58 L wrote: L running around screaming the sky is falling. Excuse me? I've posted far more logical and detailed analysis than you have despite you tossing out 2 long posts full of emotionally laden 'whoa oh shit, lets lynch the douchebag' casual text. Your argument has been presented in its entirety before, but you spruced it up and added a bunch of flavor text, remember after all, when ace plays he believes that: It's not what you know, it's what you can convince people to believe. So posting the same "it was a dumb move, ergo he is mafia + we need to kill him" content was pretty spot on, but you completely ignored the counter argument. There's probably an entire's page worth of writing on the topic which you ignored. Why would you want to knock Nemy out of office? Well, for one, you're number three. You're the one that directly loses out on an office position. Two: you ver and mynock have supported each other in a circular fashion, then all seemingly dissapeared from the thread. What's more, the vast majority of supporters on your nemy position were people who bandwagoned you/ver/mynock very early without much posting like dreamflower. SUSPICIOUS? Just about as suspicious as someone calling out Plexa, which I agree was a fucking retarded vote. What's more, your rebuttal of my 'nonsense claims' echoes EXACTLY WHAT I'VE BEEN SAYING. Mafia will ONLY reveal pardoner once they can end the game or when the trade off is beyond worth it. 15 player games have far less sacrifice potential than we currently have, especially if the pardoner gets tied up in clue evidence and is going to be a target in a day or two. ONCE THEY DO, however, WE ARE DOWN AN ENTIRE DAY. Your rebuttal of trying to get blues into office is that you believe you're worth more to the town than a blue role, but the problem there, as I stated earlier, is that your personal capital makes you a prime target for a mafia candidacy. What's more; you keep promoting you, ver, and Mynock, which is interesting because you three started out circularly voting for each other. Its very possible, and in my mind probable that there's at least one mafia between the three of you. The most dangerous part to you, however, is that nemY isn't going to win by a landslide at current rates: he's going to take the mafia coveted pardoner spot. Unlike in previous games where the mayor had networking ability, the only thing he has here is a double vote and his target will likely be voted upon by the town anyways, so that's that. That said, you did end up reading 8 pages in an hour and a quarter minutes, seeing as you got up around 4:45 est, right? Maybe you ought to go back and actually read instead of scaremongering. You seem to have gone to sleep around 8pm last night too, which would be around 1.5 pages ahead of where you said you started off. Either you purposely ignored the thread (good mayor work there) or you've been lying. Feel free to provide me more information. Exact times, if you would. So let me interject: if one of you is mafia, which is likely, you'd act exactly how mafia acted in mafia 2, which is exactly how you're acting now. Its what we did before. Its what I'd do if I was mafia. Look at all the wrong shit in this post, oh gee I don't know where to start. 1.) You haven't been logical. Period. Your arguments about Pardoner are null and void because we can't determine anyone's roles yet. Duh. So your asking the town to vote in a way that is pretty much useless. All we can do is vote on ability which unfortunately leaves a lot of people out. 2.) nemy isn't in office. If I was worried about losing the election that bad of all people why would I go after nemy? Or you know, I could just take my vote off of mynock and abstain or vote for someone else. Duh? Your analysis is complete shit, try again. 3.) I'm supporting Mynock and Ver because I feel they are the other 2 best candidates. Every game we have people like you who question why I'm doing something, and you all come off looking like idiots. How many times do I have to tell you - you're wasting time. Maybe I just genuinely believe those 2 are good for the town and holy shit! They might be mafia but they haven't acted like you or nemy so I have no reason to fuck with them.4.) That's nice that 1 of the 3 of us might be mafia. It's also nice that 6 out of the 30 people playing might be also. What's your point? 5.) There is no danger to me. Stop trying so hard. There is no mafia coveted Pardoner spot - any of the 2 will do. Stop making up these grand ideas in your head. 6.) Your "ifs" are wrong because none of us play this game like you. It shows. 7.) I don't know exactly what time I started reading the thread or exactly what time I went to bed. But if you want to dissect it till your blue in the face go ahead - I'm innocent and don't have to worry about anything. See unlike nemy, I haven't lied about anything. And unlike you I'm actually analyzing whats going on now and not some made up scenario that we have no control over. Got anything else you want to uselessly add to the thread? Any more lightweight accusations you want to make against The Three Musketeers?
Yeah, completely independant.
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How would you work to get someone into office, then?
Not supporting them?
Not making your entire day 1 post content about how Ver/You/Mynock need to get office?
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How does that equal working WITH them? Explain doofus. How doesn't it?
Rofl.
SMARTER if you actually looked at the voters I did, you have a total of 1 person who didn't switch votes under your list and they voteswang you.
Not fishy at all.
[quoite]So let's see:
1.) Wrong about me working with Mynock and Ver to get voted in
2.) Wrong about me causing a suspicious voteswing as if it came out of no where
3.) Acting as if coining the term "The three Musketeers" is automatically cause for creating a Mafia coalition[/quote]
So lets see
1. Right about you working with mynock and Ver.
2. Right about you having a suspicious voteswing to your name.
3. I never said coining the term made it happen, it was the crystallization of a larger trend of co-operation.
And yea, go ahead and try to lynch any but dreamflower. I'm gonna pardon them because right now your making no sense and are acting more mafiaish than anyone with the exception of Ver and Nemy This is why we're killing you first, silly, so you don't have this wacky mafia controlled pardon ability : ).
Thanks for proving my point, Mr cool cucumber. COOLACECUCUMBER, please be happier when you post.
Like me : D
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On May 18 2009 04:02 Mynock wrote: I'll try to be as reasonable as I can here, and just address the L issue briefly.
L, to make it a bit more clear, the problem both Ace (I think) and I have here, is that you're dealing with some virtual Mafia game's Day 7, while we're actually trying to address the issues of here and now. And your constant paranoia and shouting does get a bit tiresome. I understand your position and your concerns, but I just don't feel they're as valid and of such high priority to deal with them extensively.
That aside, there is one point I agree with you on, and that is the upstart of a Mafia Mayor as quickly as possible. However, out of the leading candidates, that only applies to Ver. I have been wondering myself where Ver could have gone, because he's made virtually no input after his initial campaining and a brief cameo after nemY RCed (granted, his campaigning put him in a comfortable spot, but still...).
If Ver is out there and active, I'd like to hear his take on this matter. Mynock clearly not working along side you to marginalize me.
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On May 18 2009 03:55 Ace wrote: Oh snap L fails at reading again, and now tries to put the loss of the Town last game on me. I love this shit.
1.) Obviously determining roles is the aim of the game - but we are still at Mayoral elections. None of us can determine anything right now. Oh shit how did you miss this? You even quoted it but read it wrong.
2.) Worried about the election != worried about nemy. I'd love to be in, but hey if Mynock and Ver made it can't say I'd be sad. I'm not that worried about the election. But yea your right - I am worried about nemy which is exactly why I've been making my case against him.
3.) circular collusion? lol ok Don King. Ver has been pretty much silent, and only myself and Mynock have really supported each other. Stop trying to take wild guesses.
4.) I am immune from scrutiny. Because I'm innocent so anything you try to come at me with just doesn't phase me. If you caught me lying or bullshitting I'd understand but I never have. You know, thats how most of the good players that play know when I'm innocent.
5.) It wasn't proven false. How would you know the Mafia covet the Pardoner spot unless they themselves stated it? Once again you're failing.
6.) It's an US statement because playing the game with Ver and Mynock so many times I KNOW none of us play the game like you. It's just that simple - nothing beyond that.
7.) What full disclosure is there to give? But since you want to - go ahead. Post this evidence. You'll see I went to sleep, woke up, and came on TL.net after playing DOTA. Clan chat, replays - post whatever you need to. I know I'm not mafia so I'm begging you to do what you have to in order to "prove" I'm lying. I wasn't dodging but since you said I was I'm here for the show.
So go ahead champ, show us what you got.
Supporting mynock/ver again. You 'KNOW' how they play, but now believe Ver is mafia. Nice prediction skills.
Etc.
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I can go on, there are plenty of other posts which show you working together with the two mentioned in order to try and put forth the same argument. You working with Ver/Mynock isn't 100% grounds for guilt, but the way you're taking it as a death threat indicates that I've hit oil and you're going to keep gushing for me.
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I made a super general argument because there's a LOOOOOOOOOOOOT of material.
Go to search on the top left of the TL interface, put in whatever, then go search advanced by limiting results to content by Ace and picking Mynock or Ver as the subject field. It will give you a list of all of his posts where he mentions the person stated.
I will make a picture.
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: ) One sec, uploading to photobucket or something.
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Uh, no, i said go READ the posts. That's how you get to them quickly.
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Well, to be specific I said there's a lot of material, I'm just telling people how to get it. The best way to do it is to click on the post number you want with whatever your browser's find button ready, because sometimes the mention of the name is in quoted material or the post isn't relevant.
happy reading mon ami :3
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L's plan defends against the POSSIBILITY that our pardoner is mafia.
I have stated repeatedly that a decent amount of suspicion is all that's required in order for this plan to be the best possible plan. I don't know that Ace is mafia. I don't know that Ver is mafia. I don't know how the fuck Mynock fits into the jigsaw puzzle.
What I do know is that Ver is obviously under suspicion and so is Ace. Ace's defence was more emotional than rational and made attempts to ignore valid criticisms of his past actions by trying to confuse the issues. Trying to create a difference between supporting and 'working with' when there are posts with ace specifically chatting cordially addressed to Mynock, for instance.
I don't need Ace OR Ver to be 100% confirmed mafia in my mind because the main points are as follows.
My first premise is that both Ace AND Ver were elected under very odd circumstances: Ace exhibited a mass of vote switching. Certain players switched their vote up to 3 times. Ver similarly had an early bandwagon and was largely silent the entire time. This doesn't mean they are mafia, but if they ARE mafia, their vote lists are VERY likely to contain mafia members. This has been the story of every mafia game in which a mafia member is elected into public office. When you say "mafia could have voted for someone innocent" I'm saying "that's irrelevant".
My second premise is that with respect to the BG slaughter, we can't point towards Ver over Ace or Ace over Ver. Both ran on equivilant platforms. Both stressed their experience and skill. Both have added near nothing in terms of analysis when it was not to directly defend themselves. Why would I assume that BGs claimed to Ver instead of Ace? Ace was more active, for one, but Ver admits he has received a lot of PMs.
My third premise is that the most important source of information in this game are the undisputable voting lists. If either are discovered to be mafia, their lists become prime targets for looking for future targets. And when I say "prime" targets, I mean PRIME.
My fourth premise is that we cannot lynch Ace as well as another target during a double lynch. The explanation for this has been repeated ad nauseum.
My fifth premise is the final one. It is that we should lynch as soon as possible in order to remove killing power to extend our town's lifespan. This is the most important premise.
Simple version:
Ace and Ver are fishy. There is likely a mafia in office (universally accepted) If there is, finding out which is mafia will give us solid leads on other mafia We need to act as quickly as possible The quickest way is to deal with Ace prior to Ver. If Vig wants to help out, awesome.
Now, do I assume Ace is mafia? No. I say that we need to kill Ace AND Ver in order to unravel the confusion we've had in the first two days and discover 1) the reason for the odd voting patterns 2) the reason for the BG slaughter. Since I want to get lynches on the table as fast as possible, I cannot let Ace be the second lynch. If Ver was pardoner, I would select him first. It has nothing to do with the magnitude of the suspicion. It simply enables double lynching.
Bockit. I've made this exact point to you before. If you want to fix the mistakes of the last game, you can look at my analysis of how town failed during the last game. One of my points is directly there: Town didn't start doubles early enough. Additionally, you state that Ace's recent actions seem to show that he's innocent. Really? I highly disagree.
You judge, based on the action of other players stating that they are suspicious and voted for Ace, that Ace is less likely to be guilty. Wrong. the majority of mafia will bail on what they consider an outted mafia. One or two will hang on to provide consistency to their views, but the vast majority will plant red herrings. I explained this before when noting that Ace and Ver could both be mafia and they could be attempting to red herring each other into innocence on the lynch of one. This is the way mafia played last game, and it was a conscious choice. We deliberately set up a net of accusations and counter accusations so that if one of us was found, our post content could not be used to directly figure someone else out.
Most obvious example of that? Bockit's game opening PMs talking about JeeJee, who I, as mafia, knowingly defended and got out of the lynch. If you followed Bockit's red herring, an innocent would die who would make a mafia look innocent. DOUBLE BONUS. The same is obviously being played here.
For Mynock:
IF YOU DARE GET DIVERTED FROM YOUR FUCKING MAFIA MAYOR JUST LIKE YOU DID LAST GAME, I WILL FUCKING GO TO YOUR HOUSE AND MURDER YOU! I am 100% in favor of killing Ver. That's the entire point of doing this. If he's Vigilante'd this night after Ace is killed, all the better.
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Haha, wait, you were on our team last game and were the first instance of red herring dropping. Why would you ignore that in your analysis?
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