EPTMafia VIII [GG] - Page 7
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On May 20 2009 09:21 Scamp wrote: I trust Ace more at this point because Ace hasn't done anything fishy in my opinion. I don't like the way he's going after Ver but I can't deny I've had some suspicions about Ver as well. Right now I suspect that Ace isn't mafia and is pushing that hard because of it. However, I'm still not convinced that Ver is mafia either. Then we have L and BC complicating things even further. I've got to believe that at least one of the four are mafia. I said that three BLUES are way beyond coincidence FOR ME. What I think is that someone has gotten themselves really close to powerful people behind the scenes and is using it to fish out really good information. LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL | ||
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On May 20 2009 09:25 Ace wrote: But you keep ignoring this other fact: Who said I feel like pardoning dreamflower? Dream flower has not been confirmed as OBVIOUSLY Mafia so your point is moot. If I pardoner her in that instance then you have every right to get rid of me. But that hasn't happened now has it? Stop thinking of worst case scenarios and LOOK at what we know. Oh wow, playing stupid again. Let me lay this out for you. I want you to die now because I believe you and ver in death will offer up at minimum 1 mafia and dreamflower's pretty much in the bag, netting us a drop in KP. What order do I want you to die in? LET US EXAMINE: Ver / Aceflower v Ace / Verflower Scenario 1. If you are mafia, you ALWAYS FUCKING PARDON AS YOU DIE. you're saying "well, I wouldn't because that would confirm me but YOU'RE ALREADY ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK. YOU'RE TRADING USELESS INFORMATION FOR -1 LYNCH. If you aren't, you die without pardoning. Scenario 2. same people die, no threat of pardon. THIS IS SO FUCKING SIMPLE. THE PARDONER CAN GET WHOMEVER HE'S BEING DOUBLE LYNCHED WITH OFF THE HOOK. EVEN IF DREAMFLOWER IS NOT MAFIA, YOU WOULD PARDON. | ||
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BOTH powerful offices Both offices do nothing for town besides for +2 votes on Ver if he was town aligned which you don't believe. You're just pissy you die under the scenario. You and ver being confirmed as mafia/innocent holds the most possible amount of information for two and both of you are highly suspicious BY YOUR OWN ADMISSION. But okay, I need a better reason. why don't you look at the post I'm replying to. Your defence was "I wouldn't pardon" and now you realize you're full of shit. Sorry ace, think through your posts before making them. Vig, please hit him tonight if we dont' lynch him. L, why is dreamflower in the bag? I did suspect her in the beginning...but that was off some shoddy behavior and some clue analysis that is probably wrong. A day 2 clue analysis doesn't do much better... Behavior, voting pattern, clue analysis and the form of contributions all point towards mafia. | ||
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ok, you don't even know WHO to lynch because you don't even have a credible case. Yes I do. You claimed that you wouldn't pardon under the scenario I gave and are now backtracking from it. You want to lynch Dreamflower when Ver is even more suspect Ah, no, I want to lynch dreamflower AND ver after lynching YOU so we can DOUBLE LYNCH. I already said SURE it makes sense to kill us both but since we all know ONE of us has to be innocent we don't NEED to kill both roles. You admit my plan makes sense, but say above that I don't know who I'm hitting.This post is so self contradictory, and has followed such fucking poor play that I'm only getting more convinced that you're in desperation. Lines like I'm the only guy stopping you are pretty clearly against your cool cucumberness. So yeah Ace, you're fishy and there's a good way to clear the chaos: Find out who in office was legit and who wasn't. If we knock out both of you we can take a look at the voting record. But I don't even need to explain this, you AGREED TO IT. the part you dislike is the portion wherein you die. Suck it up. Do the town some good. | ||
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I seem to be L's popular choice for lynch, Are you fucking retarded?Do you even read? VOTE ACE. if we don't VIG HIT HIM FOR THE LOVE OF GOD. Both people in office need to be killed so we can examine how the election went. EVERY game that a mafia is elected, he is ALWAYS supported by his friends. I don't even care if one or the other is innocent as long as BOTH die and we get the information we need. The FASTEST way to do this is to double and kill ace to prevent him from side pardoning during the lynch. If we lynch ver today and everyone agrees ace is mafia tomorrow, we're still fucked because we're dealing with the same pardoner + double lynch scenario. | ||
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On May 20 2009 10:32 Ace wrote: Nope L, normally I'd be fine with dying but I believe the town is so collectively stupid I refuse. Not this time. 1. If dying is clearly in the best interest of town, then why do you think your genius mind can accomplish under heavy scrutiny other than fuck the town over by depriving them of information? 2. standard ignoring of the majority of my post. | ||
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On May 20 2009 10:36 Incognito wrote: Compromise...Mynock kinda hit it. BC is fishy. Very fishy. Especially with the whole not paying attention to L thing. And the all out anti-Showtime "clue". L is afraid that Ace will pardon dreamflower. So what we do, is we lynch VER today, and save dreamflower and BC for tomorrow. Ace wouldn't pardon because he's not up on the chopping block. So we just lynch Ace the next day. Everyone happy? No, that means we can't do another double lynch on day 4 because we still have pardoner sitting there. If you think ace should be lynched, you want it now so we can advance at full speed with our doubles. | ||
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I'm not making the assumption that just one is mafia. Nor do I think anyone should. | ||
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On May 20 2009 10:44 Mynock wrote: Actually, to be completely fair (and to diverge a little from the rambling style for a while) I understand what you're saying here. I just feel you're working on a very basic, very mechanical level. You don't count in behaviour at all, or rather, do it in a very convoluted way, as if it's something mystical and unexplainable... It's simple stuff actually, and it manifests in small, simple clues. Just as an example: as soon as Ver made that accusatory post and Ace and I rebutted that, Ver goes on saying "oh OK, I liked Ace's response, but Mynock, humm, he's fishy fishy". Why? To set Ace up vs me and vice-versa. Why would he do that if he was innocent? Because he made a miscalculation about me? Nuh-uh, I'm not suspicious on THAT level, and I know it. Ver knows it too. He wouldn't make such a mistake. Simple stuff, but it's subtle. And Town misses that, and Ver knows THAT. Oh, how well he does, he pulled the same stunts last game. If he's not Mafia, I'll have to say this is the worst Townie play I've ever seen from Ver. Period. I'll also admit I suck at reading people. So go on, prove me wrong... Most of the behavioral analysis which led me to suspect all three members of the 'three musketeers' has been posted during day 1. Its only been adding fuel on the fire since then. I've always believed there's the potential for multiple mafia playing the other members of the candidate ring. Either way, since people can't put a finger on a single target and exonerate the other, the best method for town to proceed is to take out both. If you were mafia and saw this, what would you do? Mechanical works. The only way this plan fails to produce a sizable bonus for the town is if both ver AND ace are innocent and pretty much no one believes that at this point. | ||
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Maybe you don't get that: Its THREE OF US DEAD. There is NO reason to vote Ver over Ace unless you're 100% certain Ace is innocent, and no one is. | ||
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If we don't kill Ace, we lose a wealth of information and CANNOT use our double lynches asap. Again, 100% assurance Ace is innocent or your actions hurt the town. We have roughly the same amount of contradicting positions and circumstantial evidence linking Ver and Ace to being mafia. Ver slightly tops out Ace on suspicion in my mind because of the clue analysis, but Ace makes up for that by having a far sketchier voting record and supporters that are far more likely to be mafia. Since the 'suspicion' is relatively high over both of them, DEAL WITH BOTH IN THE BEST MANNER. Mechanical or not, its the BEST path forward. Take it. | ||
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On May 20 2009 12:13 Bockit wrote: L, that only works if we're killing Ace with our double lynch. Ace should never get hit during a double lynch because of pardoner status. | ||
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On May 20 2009 12:18 fusionsdf wrote: Ace suggesting to lynch ver tells us absolutely nothing. Case 1: Ace is innocent, Ver is mafia -Ace suspects ver naturally and is right Case 2: Ace is innocent, Ver is innocent -Ace suspects ver naturally and is wrong Case 3: Ace is mafia, Ver is mafia -Mafia ploy. Ver is lynched, town automatically assumes Ace is innocent, mafia can now abuse that trust. Case 4: Ace is mafia, Ver is innocent -Ace says he was convinced. You have no way to tell this isn't case 2 until Ace is lynched. 2 days wasted, loss of all elected officials results. Ace is a very good player, particularily at occlumency (for someone who never read the books, I really enjoyed the movies). He's not going to be easy to read whether mafia or town, and hes not going to allow himself to be backed into a corner where his play is predicitve (when he is mafia for obvious reasons, when he is innocent for the sake of future games) -Ace suspects ver naturally and is wrong Ding ding ding. Someone understands how to analyze incentives in a game of mafia. Ace does not get off the hook REGARDLESS of how Ver flips, which is why we need to take him out FIRST, so that our corresponding kill on Ver can take place at double lynch maximum speed. | ||
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On May 20 2009 12:18 Bockit wrote: L: We lynch Ver tonight. We vigi someone tonight based on what we learn from ver's death. Mafia kp is down to 2. A likely scenario, not definite but nowhere near impossible. We learn nothing from killing Ace about Ver. See the above. They were working together until they were elected into office, now they're trying to force an either/or scenario. ACE IS NOT INNOCENT IF VER FLIPS RED. | ||
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On May 20 2009 12:20 Bockit wrote: If he pardon's someone when we're double lynching then we simply kill them both the next day. Mafia only have 6 members They cannot afford to lose 2 so easily. he can pardon someone innocent and we're forced to kill them anyways exactly by your logic. EITHER WAY WE'RE DOWN A LYNCH. WE ESSENTIALLY LOSE A DOUBLE LYNCH. Bockit, I've explained this shit before. | ||
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On May 20 2009 12:21 fusionsdf wrote: how are you planning to coordinate vigi hits? Just have every vigi go after one person? There is ONE vig who has ONE hit. | ||
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