EPTDo we still want to do that? Can we still do that?
Mafia VIII [GG] - Page 4
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Do we still want to do that? Can we still do that? | ||
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Yeah a DT revealed that should have never revealed himself or just a traitor. So you punish the town because a blue played in a manner you don't approve of instead of make the best you can with the lemons you've got? Nemy performed a gambit. Town should reply by considering the risk/benefit of the situation instead of saying "i don't like the way you played". Specifically they need to look at how likely it is that Ver/Ace/Mynock triforce has a mafia in it. Ver admits that the timing of their declarations leads him to believe that there IS a mafia in the trio (iirc, will check soon), yet the town blindly charges on forward egged on by the people who are most suspected of being mafia. I had this open in another window but forgot to hit post :o. my bad. Quote is tricode top of page 30. | ||
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I really hope you are not just basing this whole thing on one line i said. I had other reasons such as i believe more skilled players would benefit us more then Nemy and such. I'm not.A number of players stated flat out that they believed that nemy was not mafia, yet voted against him, or swung votes at the last minute. How is he punishing the town? Nemy played dumb, and in a game this level he got caught in a big lie. If someone believes Nemy is innocent, but votes against him, they are doing so either out of spite, which a number of players did and admitted they did. Go read the tricode post.Yeah a DT revealed that should have never revealed himself or just a traitor. Somehow the fact that the DT played contrary to his view of how a DT should play makes it acceptable that we now have a DT in the open if he was correct. | ||
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Your number 1 problem is that you seem to fully believe he is DT. 1- no I don't. I believe that the likeliness that he is is very high, but I'm not 100% sure of anyone. I have weighed the risks against the benefits and come to my conclusions that way.Number 2 problem is i never voted for Nemy. Number 3, Even if Nemy is innocent, there is a lot of us that are innocent! 23 to be exact. 2- Go look at my post. I never said you did. I said a number of people did, not you. What you did was state that he's either a DT or traitor, and that even if he is a dt that its irrelevant because he played poorly. 3- If Nemy is innocent, he is 99% likely to be a DT. There 'is' a lot of DTs. 2. number 4 what I did is not out of spite, it's more out of picking the best option IMO. It's like you care less about our skillful players that really help town get through the game to Nemy who just has a blue role...and that's even if he does have a blue role. 4. Care about our skillful players? There are skillful players on both sides of the fence. Being skillful does not mean you are exempt from scrutiny. I care about the town's wellbeing, not the feelings of some players who have convinced the town that they are superior players. So that's where we differ in our opinions, and I've laid out the divergence between our thinking before. Again, this is another instance of the "we're so good, so you must obey us" argument. Ace went as far as to say that he's immune to scrutiny because of his past performance in games. Does that even sound remotely logical from the point of view that Ver proposed in his first large post? Number 5, this Nemy thing about him not being able to get into office is over. Get over it. Look to what we should do next. Killing nemy and the quality of the people in office haven't magically disappeared. I specifically asked people to talk about who we should lynch, yet no one took that question up. If you're town, you want activity, yet this is portion of your post is a blatant "shut up". You don't suggest a new topic of discussion, yet I have, So: even your condemnation here rings hollow. You're criticizing me for something you're MORE guilty of than I am. If you don't trust me, you want me to post more so you can see if i trip up. If you do trust me you want to see me trip up other people. Either way, more data is more power for town, and this thread is the largest repository of town knowledge. All other things being equal, more discussion gives us more potential to win. | ||
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I'd like to know from where you're pulling these imaginary and false figures? From the fact that the play was ultra ballsy, the fact that history shows that a real DT has figured its worth trying, and the fact that mafia setting up one of their members to get killed/vig hit on day 1-2 is incredibly poor play. The risk is huge, the reward is not: Compare to someone who is a 'good player' like Ace/Ver being mafia and running (and there's obviously going to be one on the mafia side) why would you go about this route? After this game, when the precedent is set that the gambit is a potential success for someone who tries it, it would be far less likely, but compared the potential nemy is mafia to ace or ver. Ace and Ver have huge playing tells and action tells which are pointing towards them being mafia. They might not be, but they're more likely to be than joe 6pack average player given the way they played day 1. The likeliness nemy is mafia depends on the risk/reward ratio of making the claim. In the current instance, the risk of being caught is very high and the penalty is severe: 1/6th of the mafia die. Compare that to the reward: Ace is on record saying pardoner is far less powerful than i proposed it to be, so lets do this calculation in his head: Minimal reward: Town wouldn't start listening to him or funneling him information. Town would still be looking at him. Which makes me wonder why Ace could possibly believe nemy is lynch material. | ||
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Clear instance of punishing the current town for making a play he doesn't approve of. | ||
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Contradiction again. | ||
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You're mentioning qualitative not quantitative observations. Still, my question remains unanswered. You're intentionally wasting my time. There is no quantitative data in the game which is assured until people confirm themselves or die. beyond 22/29 chances for being a townie 7/29 for being mafia aligned there are no numbers you can use to directly determine the percentage "mafia" you are. You know this. I know this. "the I'm 99% certain he's a mafia" line, or variations thereof is simply meant to express that one person strongly believes in the statement. But why are you even talking about his use of a fairly transperant literary device? Please tell me. | ||
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On May 19 2009 06:55 LucasWoJ wrote: Perhaps because you yourself tell us that you skip any post that does not include your name in it. Not hard to beat those assumptions. You could skim or even glance at your posts and you'd topple the expectations you set for yourself. ^_^ Ace obviously has a stylistic flair in his writing, and an obvious tendancy to make emotional rather than logical arguments. How people react to me calling them out, however, is very telling because it looks like we're 'fighting' and that generally makes people pick sides. Malongo, i did the cute quote thing. Start posting content you douchebag. | ||
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On May 19 2009 06:58 Caller wrote: i see what you did there if that is what you genuinely feel, then I don't understand why L is so diametrically opposed to it. L, you would get to see Ace's opinion, no? And if you really are opposed to what Ace is saying, this would be a good opportunity to check out any suspicions (probably none, imho). I believe that Ace this round genuinely (for once) has town interest at heart here. But I still don't know if killing nemy is a good idea, partly because he could be traitor/DT (I doubt he's mafia) and partly because we're already prejudging on something we haven't completely clarified yet. I already stated that one of the aims of me being so active is to produce reactions and data for the town. The content or 'rage' or whatever that you guys are picking up is largely a method of determining what type of data comes out of the thread. If I create a fight, people pick sides. This tells us something. The content of their defence and offence tells us things too. | ||
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On May 19 2009 09:27 Malongo wrote: Congratulations L, please use that method from now on. Are you trying to get a reaction from me? Unfortunately I truly dont understand the term "douche" or "douchebag" to its fullest. At best I can guess its something like "not friendly" but wordreference says its something like "vaginal shower" :S. Theres not too much content to add really, since we must wait for the day post. I already said what I think about Nemy, in this case ignore is the best we can do. About the medics I already said that I think they are quite experienced this time (I think I can point to one of them) and the veterans are indeed waiting to take at least a hit. Yes, I called you a vaginal shower. Was rather lighthearted. But there is still plenty to talk about, and plenty of value in talking. Also, i'm getting the hang of this quote button. | ||
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On May 19 2009 08:36 Ver wrote: I just got back. Sorry guys I was at my honors defense (Yes I passed :D). Last night I didn't want to spend any more time on mafia than I did and being feverish I just did a coin flip bo7 between Infinity21 and Amber[light]. Infinity won 4-1 so that was that. I had a few more ambitious lynches but I didn't have the time to contact Ace and I figured he'd be okay with lynching a noncontributer. 0cz3c your list sucks. Not only is it useless but contradictory and inaccurate. At the very least I want the colored text back! I'll update mine in a bit though. Despite Ace's silly criticism based on some newbie implementation I still believe it is a valid way to make my opinions known and inject some chaos. I thought the idea was awesome when I saw you post that thing last game and so far it's been quite successful ^_^ Not much else to say for the night though. I disagree with Ace's dt list in needing to RC those three mayoral candidates but that can wait till later when we have more evidence. The most pressing thing I want to know is how many mafia candidates ran. 0, 1, or 2. I originally thought there were 2, Mynock and Ace. One of my associates thought that as well. But Ace's response to me calling him out was exactly what I expected if he was innocent. Mynock, not so much, and I'm pretty questioning of him still (imo primary dt suspect). The useful part with this is that once we know we can clear everyone else because mafia is not going to have that many candidates running. Game history says that any time a mafia candidate has run, they have always gotten a position. Randombum got pardonner in mafia 2, MTF got mayor in mafia 4, and Qatol got mayor last game. My vote switching shenanigans were in an attempt to isolate the mafia voters or figure out potential mafia candidates. I'm still not certain on Ace/Mynock and they have to prove themselves but I feel a bit better than I did before. Caller BC and Showtime are almost assuredly innocent based on votes. If anyone has any insight on this I'd much appreciate it. Town needs to talk more, as I was pretty annoyed that almost nobody responded to my queries for targets last night. L is doing a great job of adding confusion and chaos while distracting us from our tasks. As for tomorrows lynches, more will be clear when we see who's dead. Mafia either have to blue snipe or target who they feel is the most dangerous. But if they do the latter the mafia will reveal themselves quickly (this is why I only blue sniped last game). You ran for mayor. You attempt to side implicate me despite saying town needs activity and I'm the main catalyst for it. If someone suspects you, which I do because you ran for mayor, and by your own logic that puts you on the 'high' suspicion list, the qualities in your post add up very well against you. As for confusion, feel free to look at how 'switch happy' the voting base was. Quite frankly, if you assume that 1, 2 or 3 of you/ace/mynock are mafia, and that any innocent member is being set up for a fall to make the guilty parties look better, all of the posts from you, mynock and ace make perfect sense. It made sense when you circularly voted for each other. It makes sense with the fake trap you set for ace. It made sense when you promised activity then provided none. It made sense during ace's argumentation. It made sense during mynock's argumentation. What's more, most of your analysis has been a DIRECT copy of things I've said, yet you point a finger at me for causing confusion for advocating, largely, the same logic you are. You're a smart player, so you're obviously baiting me or baiting someone else with these statements. | ||
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On May 19 2009 08:43 0cz3c wrote: Mafia Percentages (Plus/Minus 5 percentage points for total accuracy) 1. Caller - 36% 2. Incognito - 34% 3. scamp - 14% 4. scaramanga - 0% 5. bloodyc0bbler - 31% 6. fishball - 19% 7. nemy - 78% 8. fusionsdf - 67% 9. Ver - 100% 10. bockit - 0% 11. plexa - 70% 12. camlito - 82% 13. showtime! - 20% 14. mikeymoo - 45% 15. dreamflower - 47% 16. ace - 9% 17. infundibulum - 43% 18. vivi57 - 38% 19. mynock - 28% 20. lucaswoj - 35% 21. amber[light] - 39% 22. rebirthoflegend - 0% 23. MTF - 0% 24. 0cz3c - 0% 25. infinity21 - 87% 26. heavonearth - 95% 27. Tricode - 0% 28. Malongo - 0% 29. MrBabyHands - 69% 30. L - 63% 31??? LTT 1% Chances that the person is NOT mafia (plus/minus say...2 percentage points) 1. Caller - 64% 2. Incognito - 66% 3. scamp - 86% 4. scaramanga - 100% 5. bloodyc0bbler - 69% 6. fishball - 50% 7. nemy - 36% 8. fusionsdf - 70% 9. Ver - 0% 10. bockit - 100% 11. plexa - 17% 12. camlito - 43% 13. showtime! - 19% 14. mikeymoo - 61% 15. dreamflower - 54% 16. ace - 91% 17. infundibulum - 85% 18. vivi57 - 42% 19. mynock - 28% 20. lucaswoj - 68% 21. amber[light] - 59% 22. rebirthoflegend - 100% 23. MTF - 100% 24. 0cz3c - 100% 25. infinity21 - ~30% 26. heavonearth - 23% 27. Tricode - 100% 28. Malongo - 100% 29. MrBabyHands - 25% 30. L - 34% 31???! LTT - 99% Voters for showtime and showtime himself are rather explicitly ranked between 0 and 20%. Coincidence? | ||
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On May 19 2009 10:47 L wrote: You ran for mayor. You attempt to side implicate me despite saying town needs activity and I'm the main catalyst for it. If someone suspects you, which I do because you ran for mayor, and by your own logic that puts you on the 'high' suspicion list, the qualities in your post add up very well against you. As for confusion, feel free to look at how 'switch happy' the voting base was. Quite frankly, if you assume that 1, 2 or 3 of you/ace/mynock are mafia, and that any innocent member is being set up for a fall to make the guilty parties look better, all of the posts from you, mynock and ace make perfect sense. It made sense when you circularly voted for each other. It makes sense with the fake trap you set for ace. It made sense when you promised activity then provided none. It made sense during ace's argumentation. It made sense during mynock's argumentation. What's more, most of your analysis has been a DIRECT copy of things I've said, yet you point a finger at me for causing confusion for advocating, largely, the same logic you are. You're a smart player, so you're obviously baiting me or baiting someone else with these statements. particularly If someone suspects you, which I do because you ran for mayor, and by your own logic that puts you on the 'high' suspicion list, the qualities in your post add up very well against you. Makes more sense if it reads: If someone suspects you because you ran for mayor, by your own logic that puts you (and your post) on the 'high' suspicion list. The qualities in your post add up very well against you. Rather quick writing and I wanted to get to that list point because I've been looking very closely at the members of that rapid showtime vote explosion (for obvious reasons). | ||
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Being that he's been targeted on the first Night of just about every Mafia game he's been in I'm sure that pattern isn't changing anytime soon. Mafia motivation being..? | ||
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Additionally, this game has such a high concentration of "danger" on both sides (or should, some 'veteran' mafia players are playing pretty poorly ^_^) that I don't think that'll be a useful source of motivation, and also why I didn't think "danger" was a good heuristic to use for electing office. | ||
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^_^ | ||
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