|
On May 18 2009 03:08 Mynock wrote:
We still have about 5-6 (or so) hours before the elections are over, so I'd like to urge everyone to vote. Those of you who have abstained, vote! It benefits Town, since we'll know where you stand.
I'd like to encourage you to either vote for me or Ace. The vote tallies are very close this time, so everything will be decided by 1 or 2 voices tops. Watch out for nemY suddenly getting a couple critical votes in the last minutes. Or anyone else for that matter.
I will vote, still not sure who I'm picking. Something isn't right and I can feel it.
|
On May 18 2009 04:21 L wrote:Show nested quote +L when you quote someone could you please leave in who you're quoting with the message? Sometimes you quote from the middle of a paragraph and it's annoying to go back and figure out where it came from. I don't wanna have to do that again if I decide to re-check all your posts.
I honestly don't know how to do that. I've never done it in all my posting on TL as far as I know. If you can tell me how i can pull a quote out with the name and time attached I'd be grateful.
You uh, press the "quote" link on the right hand side at the top of the post.
|
On May 18 2009 04:16 Caller wrote:
Seriously you guys, we have like
Ace/Mynock/Tricode vs. L/nemy
Malongo vs. LucasWoJ
what the hell is going on people, stop arguing and let's figure out what the hell we're going to do voting wise and after the election. Ad hominem can wait until later!
I don't know man. It would be nice to hear from the future mayor Ver. But a lot of what to do after the election depends on who our pardoner is.
What about the first lynch? I still think we should lynch an inactive. The only people who have been one hundred percent inactive, interestingly, are MrBabyHands and Camlito. Fusionsdf and Plexa and infinity21 come close. Other people have posted only a few 1-2 line posts, as Incognito pointed out a while ago.
|
On May 18 2009 05:15 Caller wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2009 05:08 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:On May 18 2009 04:16 Caller wrote:
Seriously you guys, we have like
Ace/Mynock/Tricode vs. L/nemy
Malongo vs. LucasWoJ
what the hell is going on people, stop arguing and let's figure out what the hell we're going to do voting wise and after the election. Ad hominem can wait until later! I don't know man. It would be nice to hear from the future mayor Ver. But a lot of what to do after the election depends on who our pardoner is. What about the first lynch? I still think we should lynch an inactive. The only people who have been one hundred percent inactive, interestingly, are MrBabyHands and Camlito. Fusionsdf and Plexa and infinity21 come close. Other people have posted only a few 1-2 line posts, as Incognito pointed out a while ago. From prior experience, both MBH and Camlito tend to post a day or so after the mayoral election, so we may want to let them live until then. I dunno what Plexa is doing, and infinity21 seems not to be paying much attn to the game -_-. I still think that we'd be better off without a nemy mayor/pardoner...
I still think not posting at all is weird, no matter who you are. I mean maybe they all have a valid excuse, but we have no way of knowing that...
Nemy not being mayor/pardoner makes it a weird situation for the medics.. The fact that he has called out DT means that mafia will try to get him killed, either by convincing us to lynch him or by hitting at night, because a DT is dangerous. I mean i think everyone can understand the medic's gamble, protect Nemy and the mafia might just hit other people, or the opposite could occur. Etc. It also creates a dilemma for the mafia; who do they hit? Killing Nemy with the lynch avoids this, but we'd just be doing the mafia's work for them because they surely want him dead anyway...
ugh i need to pick a candidate x_x
|
On May 18 2009 05:36 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Infundi, just go with ver hes a safe bet, and if we aren't careful he wont get in period.
Yeah i think I may do this. If my current vote count is correct it's Nemy 6 ::Ver 6 :: Mynock 4 :: Ace 4, for the leading candidates. Ver is probably in, but i can help keep him in the mayor spot. Convenient way to dodge the burden of choosing pardoner 
|
On May 18 2009 07:04 Ace wrote:
Go ahead and write the Table of Contents then since you're so interested in posting all of a sudden.
In fact you should stop trying to derail the thread about me and focus on how far your body will dangle.
Right now you have the most votes.
I don't know what the rest of the town thinks, but IMO lynching Nemy first is a bad idea.
|
EBWOP: i say this because you are implying here that you will lynch him first
|
On May 18 2009 11:37 Ace wrote:
FFS don't you motherfuckers ever learn? Stop thinking about "what if he's blue" and just fucking READ the thread.
This is like Folca part 2.
Dude when Folca roleclaimed, he did it with the backup accusation that he had rolechecked someone (you) and that they turned up red. We had to lynch Folca first, because it was the only way to verify that his claim was truthful while also revealing the accused's (your) alignment, i.e. it was the most efficient action.
Nemy hasn't made any rolecheck accusations, and has only claimed to be a dt. The only information we could ostensibly gain from lynching Nemy would be:
a) whether he was telling the truth or not
b) maybe some insight into the position of certain players, now that we have knowledge of Nemy's role and can see how they reacted to his claim.
I believe our situation is only surficially similar to Folca v. Ace from Mafia 3.
In addition, I don't doubt that the mafia will want to kill Nemy, because leaving a potential DT alive is quite simply dangerous to them. Why do we want to do their work for them? If Nemy stays alive and produces no useful information that we would expect from a detective, then can't we kill him anyway? If he lives to Night 2, will he not probably be rolechecked anyhow?
|
oh, Ace is doing the "you guys suck so I'm not playing" thing again. cool.
|
On May 19 2009 02:31 mikeymoo wrote:
I don't see the need for a medic list, per se. Why play mind games with the mafia when the medics in this game are likely to be active?
Pretty much. I think the medic list was mostly a helpful idea to guide newer players.
|
On May 19 2009 09:04 infinity21 wrote:
ehh it looks like i'm dead already..
in my defense, someone kept nagging me to play so i signed up but i haven't had much time to read everything in this thread to conclude anything so that's why i haven't posted. plus i'm not very experienced at this game so i didn't want to start throwing accusations
kind of interesting how everyone thought i was mafia cause i didn't post =/
it's not necessarily that anyone thought you were mafia. it's more the idea that inactive players hurt the town no matter what side they are on, and going after inactives stops the mafia from trying to hide among them.
|
On May 19 2009 13:14 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Ie check the 4th feast reference to RoL
maybe it would be better to just check to see if it is a clue at all?
|
On May 14 2009 16:18 Qatol wrote:
Bodyguard - Bodyguards are the protectors of the elected roles. As long as they remain alive the Mayor and Pardoner are both immune to all hits during the night. Bodyguards will not know who each other are, the elected roles will not know who they are, and they will be chosen from towny's after the Mayor chooses who to lynch. For all purposes the bodyguards gain no special abilities. You show up as Towny for all Rolechecks.
Emphasis mine.
|
On May 19 2009 13:49 Caller wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2009 13:47 Ace wrote:On May 19 2009 13:47 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:On May 14 2009 16:18 Qatol wrote:
Bodyguard - Bodyguards are the protectors of the elected roles. As long as they remain alive the Mayor and Pardoner are both immune to all hits during the night. Bodyguards will not know who each other are, the elected roles will not know who they are, and they will be chosen from towny's after the Mayor chooses who to lynch. For all purposes the bodyguards gain no special abilities. You show up as Towny for all Rolechecks. Emphasis mine. whats your point? he means to say its really strange that both BGs died. It could be luck.
luck is doubtful. but it is possible.
But consider, why would Ver or Ace kill off their own bodyguards? It is an act which immediately thrusts suspicion upon the elected officers.
Consider the possibility: One of Ver or Ace is in the mafia. BG roles get leaked (I should note at this point that I am not surprised this happened. Maybe a little surprised at Fishball. You know better than that, FB), mafia decides to kill the bodyguards and direct suspicion towards the innocent officer, to convince the town for a nice ol' lynching like back in the olden days. See: Ace's posts, "Ver is mafia."
I do not think that's what is really going down here though, just because Ace's posts would be absurdly fucking transparent if that was the mafia plan. I am probably too stupid to figure it out, but will sleep on it and try in the morning anyway.
---
Questions that may be impossible or improbable to answer:
1. Who knew the BG roles? Ver, Ace, or both? A third party?
2. Was it dumb luck?
3. If not luck, then what is motivation for the act? Who benefits?
|
On May 19 2009 14:54 L wrote: Did you read what he wrote? That's not how the game's rules work. All night actions happen at the exact same time. All of them work. You can't kill a vig in order to prevent his hit, nor can a vig drop the kp of mafia to reduce the amount of kills that happen. Medics can't be killed to remove their protection during that night.
To be fair to Vivi, in past games it hasn't always worked this way. For example, in Mafia 3 when we had a hit on NemY, Chuiu didn't let it go through because one of our mafia died in the night lowering our kp. Ace especially was pissed off about this, and I'm sure he remembers.
I don't know what Qatol's policy on night actions in this game is.
|
I have to go to a couple job interviews. I'll post my thoughts on everything when I get back (i bet you all can't wait).
|
On May 19 2009 13:59 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
Questions that may be impossible or improbable to answer:
1. Who knew the BG roles? Ver, Ace, or both? A third party?
2. Was it dumb luck?
3. If not luck, then what is motivation for the act? Who benefits?
OK. In this post I will operate under the assumption that it was not luck that both bodyguards were hit in the same night. This because such an act is very very unlikely, though the possibility does exist. So it comes that the bodyguards must have been in PM contact with at least one person. Out of the people in this game, here is who I would expect to have good chances of having been in contact with the bodyguards, based on past player circles and current info:
LucasWoJ
1. Ver (as he is the mayor)
2. mikeymoo
3. 0cz3c - his brother.
4. Incognito - we know this from PMs posted publicly (alliteration ftw).
5. Scaramanga.
6. Ace (as he is the pardoner)
Mikeymoo
1. LucasWoJ
2. BC
3. Camlito
4. Ver or Ace (as explained above)
5. Scaramanga
Out of these possibilities we can rule out some quickly. LucasWoJ, if we are to believe Incognito, thought Ver was the traitor. So Lucas roleclaiming to Ver seems unlikely, although it sounds like he did try to PM our mayor. 0cz3c is Lucas' brother, so it's possible he found out Lucas' role. I don't think they usually play like that though, or at least I'll give em the benefit of the doubt.
While it's possible that either of them Pm'd Ace, it just doesn't seem likely to me. Mikeymoo, BC, and Camlito seem to be three players who are generally in contact, iirc. Scaramanga somehow always gets around in PMs, so he makes my list.
PART THE FIRST:
Look at this objectively. Two bodyguards are dead. What is the primary purpose of the bodyguards? To protect the mayor and pardoner from mafia hits. Who is the primary beneficiary of dead bodyguards? The mafia, and, by proxy, the traitor.
Case 1: Either Ver or Ace is mafia.
(I don't think both are. Because then their internet acting skills would be stellar).
BG roles were leaked somehow to either Ver or Ace. It could have been either indirect or direct, and this is important. For example, I think it would be more likely for the BGs to roleclaim to Ver directly rather than Ace directly. However if the information came to Ver or Ace indirectly - through a third party, perhaps one of the many people on my list, then it is about equally likely that either of them knew. There are many ways this could have happened.
For example: Lucas and mm are in contact, Lucas tells mm he is bg, mm in contact with another person who he doesn't know is mafia spreads this info. E.g. any one mafia in their contact circle can relay the BG roles to either Ace or Ver (as we are assuming right now that one of them is red).
Now with the bodyguards dead, mafia is free to thrust suspicion on the innocent officer. Look at the reaction in the thread: many people are jumping at Ver, but most notably, Ace is. He is actually being really really accusatory right now, displaying a lot of confidence in Ver's guilt. I am kind of unnerved by this, because Ace seems to have no qualms about losing the mayor, and I am not convinced entirely that Ver is mafia or the traitor. Ace is really fucking sure of himself here. I think that is unusual. To note is that Mynock backs him, and argues for lynching Ver.
Ace even suggests that Ver killed the bodyguards just to get to Ace. This seems pretty fucking inefficient if you ask me. Ver could, if he wanted, stir up enough anger in the thread to get Ace lynched as long as there was enough support. Is Ace really that valuable to the us that Ver would kill both his bodyguards, exposing himself to suspicion, just to kill Ace on Night 3 even with the risk of Ace being a Veteran or medic protected? It would be retarded.
Furthermore, if Ver is mafia, I would expect to see people in the thread arguing against his lynch. There isn't any of this. All of it is in support of lynching Ver, and the votes are too. Does this seem strange to anyone else?
If Ace is mafia and Ver is innocent, it should be clear from the thread what his motives are.
Case 2: Either Ver or Ace is the traitor
This, my friends, is more likely. And more interesting.
Requires, if info was passed directly:
1. BG info to be passed to Ver or Ace via Lucas/MM
2. Ver or Ace to have found and contacted the mafia
3. Mafia to have killed the BG's
If info passed indirectly:
1. Lucas/MM roleclaim to 3rd party who is red
2. Mafia kill bg's, not knowing whether Ace/Ver is traitor. This scenario is actually rather interesting, and also is possible if both Ver and Ace are somehow innocent.
Either way we look at it, this move benefits the traitor and thus the mafia. If Ace is traitor and we lynch Ver today, well then shit just hit the fan. If Ver is traitor, he gets lynched and then Ace gets hit by the mafia the following night, though does not necessarily die.
If Ver is the traitor, I'm not sure how mafia would react. I think they could either:
a) support to lynch Ver. The town lynching Ver is basically like "take an extra turn" for the mafia, because they don't lose any kp. In addition it takes attention away from people who are actually mafia members.
b) protest lynching Ver. Mafia might want to keep him alive because he is the mayor and gets extra votes that can tip the lynches in their favor. Plus, the mayor always carries an aura of influence with his posts.
Case 3: Both Ver and Ace are innocent
This is definitely possible! All that needed to happen was for the mafia to get the bg roles for us to end up where we are. They really seem to hate each other though, so it's hard to imagine them on the same side. My opinion: possible, but improbable. Kind of like both bodyguards getting killed by blind luck.
PART THE SECOND
I now turn to the increasingly ignored death of a certain paramedic.
On May 19 2009 13:38 Fishball wrote:Saw that long coming
FB said in the thread he had been talking to both Vivi and BC. I really, really, really, doubt that FB roleclaimed, but maybe he gave off a blue impression in his PMs...
I think that there is only one person in this entire game that could even possibly pin down Fishball as blue on Day 1 by pure behavior analysis: MrBabyHands.
MTF adds clue analysis:
On May 18 2009 13:33 MTF wrote:Show nested quote +Qatol turned to see what was happening when a voice spoke from behind him.
“You no longer control this town. It is ours now.”
Qatol turned to face this new threat, but was unable to locate the speaker. Suddenly, Qatol saw a blur as his assailant leapt at him, planting a knife in Qatol's chest. LTT's attacker came over and helped push Qatol into the water with the others. All of the above indicates that the attacker is possibly small. He is not seen by Qatol when he turns around to find who was talking, the attacker leaps to strike Qatol's chest, and may have needed whoever attacked LTT's help in pushing the body into the water.
These are only Day 1 clues. But I like MTF's connections. It's just something to consider here. I am not yet convinced at all that MBH is mafia. It would be nice to see his opinion on the recent events, however.
|
On May 19 2009 20:36 Mynock wrote:
Also, something else, the long Night, Qatol waiting for hits? Ver was waiting for the two BGs to roleclaim to him (and I agree with Ace here, I doubt they even READ the rules, and knew they were unknown to the elects), after which he put the kills on them. This is why I think hes more likely Mafia than Traitor.
I want to note here that I think Nemy is the one Qatol was waiting for.Nemy appeared in the thread very soon before the night post, saying that he just got back and wanted to know what he should use his clue check on. A bit after that, Qatol posted the night writeup. Ver waiting for his bg's to roleclaim is a ridiculous assumption; how could he know if his bodyguards ever planned on telling him?
|
On May 20 2009 07:22 HeavOnEarth wrote:dont lynch ace, don't double lynch !...well i just had to put it out there 
why not?
|
On May 20 2009 07:44 BloodyC0bbler wrote:However, I say we ignore ace/ver alltogether today (one will die at night regardless), and kill showtime based on this. "unnoticed until one of them screamed and charged at LucasWoJ. mikeymoo fled from the scuffle as the attacker pulled out a syringe and slammed it into LucasWoJ's right eye. mikeymoo was gone by the time LucasWoJ was fully injected, but he could still hear the brutality even as he fled. The assailant bellowed again and started slamming the now empty syringe into LucasWoJ's face repeatedly until his face caved in and the only sounds left were guttural yells, the squishy impacts, and the sound of blood splatter." Google, Showtime, and it brings you to http://www.sho.com/site/index.htmlOne of the main images is of a nurse with a syringe, then an image of ufc in there as well. One person directly links to the syringe and to a horrible beating, seems to me like a closed case.
this is definitely solid though it seems almost too easy. also there's nothing really to link to the fact that the mafia doesn't say anything. he just screams and yells like a wild animal. I guess you could connect that to UFC haha.
i also love how nobody seems to read my posts
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
