EPTTL Mafia 5 [Game Over]
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early votes are much more important than late votes. Three or four early votes for BC have the potential to sway far more people than if they occurred later....not making an accusation, but if mafia wanted to sway the voting, this is where they would do it. | ||
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He has the soundest clue analysis by far. This is a much better way to choose than what someone did last game/what they say they will do this game. Its much harder for a mafia to fake a good clue analysis (but still possible) than it is to just fake the town out by saying things like "I was a good townie last time!" ""I'm dedicated!" I'm not going to tell everyone how to vote, but I would suggest it be done on clue analysis. | ||
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On March 18 2009 05:47 MrBabyHands wrote: a few of the people posting ideas are clearly trying to trick the mafia into making a bad move. this much is obvious. if i noticed this, then certainly the mafia does as well. which is probably why they aren't posting. How do you know they aren't posting? | ||
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On March 18 2009 07:19 MrBabyHands wrote: its kinda funny tho-- by addressing my list, you are actually proving your innocence even more. a mafia member wouldnt intentionally cast doubt on a list that says they are innocent. I would (This no edit rule sucks :O) --- EDIT: Actually, screw this, I'm editing. Otherwise it will just be pages of posts no one wants to go through --- On March 18 2009 06:20 Pika Chu wrote: Guys, we're making a big mistake here. Why is everyone assuming none of the main talking guys ain't mafia? Because we're practically going an all-in with this strategy, a cheese. It is a high probability that one of them is actually mafia and that would practically screw this plan. Protecting the vets is the biggest mistake i see since it's clear that most vets got good roles (like mafia or something blue) and not the shitty green which is gave to newbies. I do believe this is the algorithm that Chuiu has followed when designating the roles. I agree 100% with this post. Trying to influence the town is a LOT less difficult for mafia, and the town trying to organize without falling either into mafia traps or their own unplanned consequences is a LOT more difficult. I don't think any town organization will work with the rules as they are. | ||
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On March 18 2009 07:49 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Nothing against you Pyrrhuloxia, but can you get a hard plan of what you will do if you get elected other than clue analysis(as this is a job any elected official/any town player should be doing)? not going to answer for him, but whats the point? every candidate is going to say things like: -I'm going to be deidicated -I will listen to you -I will be smart -I will work hard ....And its hard for either a mafia or lazy bum to say that why? Clue interpretation shows that a) you are fairly dedicated, b)you will be smart, c)you will work hard, d) its in town's interest to keep you alive. It is much much easier to fake a platform than it is consistent clue analysis. So now I ask you BC, if you want my vote, what are YOU going to do as sheriff/mayor? | ||
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On March 18 2009 08:02 BloodyC0bbler wrote: I already said what i will do in my first platform, and have offered a plan and revised it to work. If you have fault with my stance, break apart my plan. I can clue analyze as well, I just realize day one analysis on its own is almost useless, we should all know that by now. 1) remember how randombum got pardoner? You should be able to realize how closely that parallels you, and why I am distrustful of anyone who gets a lot of early, unexplained votes. 2)here I'll distill your post for you: On March 17 2009 17:18 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Ok everyone, unlike the flashy gimicks of caller, I offer substance to my platform!. to start with heres my portfolio. Name: BloodyC0bbler Mafia experience: 5(6 if you count callers as two go's), 1 game run, 1 game co hosted Looking at just the one stat alone, I have the experience to lead this town to victory! In mafia 2, I was town aligned and we won, mafia 3 we as town dominated the mafia, mafia 4 was ruined by a jerkoff so well, can't really say much there. Tracils game ended early, but my side was winning. Callers first game ended day one with VI win, and his second game I as VI won. I have a high precident of winning the games on the side im part of, with ability, and luck like that, I would be an obvious goodluck charm for the town. I'm lucky. (You aren't plexa or ace, so I see no reason for you to claim the victory as being because of you. I've influenced at least 3 games far more strongly than you did) On March 17 2009 17:18 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Now, witha ll the extra things I do on TL (PX, Location thread, etc...) You guys know I spend way to much time here, giving me the most amount of time to really jump ontop of things, I can analyze clues well which is helpful in your sheriff. I'm dedicated. On March 17 2009 17:18 BloodyC0bbler wrote: As sheriff or mayor, I will help guide the town where I can doing what I do best, Analysis. I can analyze clues, behaviour of players and guide us in a winning direction. As sheriff, I can jail 4 people in a game once per person, this allows me to save potential targets from mafia in a night, or jail the mafia lowering their KP. As mayor I can guide us towards killing the right suspect, and with a day 1 auto lynch, kill the person who is the most fishy to the town, but in the end, that will come to a consensus among the town first. I'm smart. Your plan: On March 17 2009 17:18 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Now for a plan. We all know the town works better when organized, as such, neither mayor nor sheriff can guide this town to victory without being under suspect (we always flip as mayor or sheriff regardless of any other role). So heres the plan. Medics protect veteran players early. When one of them takes a hit, the medic should roleclaim to that person AND that person should claim they took a hit. That person then gets checked. They get the medic checked as well. If BOTH check out, they both come out and serve as figureheads for the town. They coordinate blue abilities but keep information on to the town. When the person is hit they speak up. The sheriff then locks him up, protecting him from night hits while a dt checks him out. Once verified we repeat process with med, and have two figureheads, as opposed to the regular one. In the event the person who is hit doesnt speak up, the medic speaks up, we verify them first, then the one hit after. This is our best chance at getting town leadership quickly. Great. Unfortunately, Medics will know who the veterans are......how? If the medic knows they are a veteran, why do they have to wait for a hit? Just go ahead and claim medic and hope it isnt godfather, Veterans will be able to trust medics....why? Mafia will know a) we targetted X b) X didn't die c) X is either veteran or medic. If mafia suspects its a medic protection, they can just PM the guy claiming to be the medic. Now you have one veteran coming forward and 2 medics (or one (real) medic and no veteran). Mafia breaks at least even in both cases. Of course if it was in fact a veteran they risk coming out behind, but a risky mafia team might be willing to do it. You waste detective checks for little gain. You keep your veteran and medic alive how? You can't incarcerate them more than once, and you can only incarcerate one. Which means somehow you have to coordinate all the medics to protect the one you don;t incarcerate.... See the problem? There is absolutely no way you can tell the medics who to protect without telling the mafia which person you are incarcerating. Which means the smartest thing for mafia to do (luckily for you they dont have a suicide bomber) is attack everyone other than mayor. sheriff and those two people. Since guaranteed they will be unprotected. Then come back later and kill the person you didnt incarcerate (since they know its a blue and you cant protect them forever) Look, this is not a good plan, and will not give you a leadership structure. If a leadership structure has the smallest flaw, mafia instant wins. Are you that confident in this plan? Assuming the above is an out of date post since there isnt a veteran also how will you deal with multiple people coming forward? Mafia will make more than one hit per night, and there may be 0-MAXNUM hits that are medic-saved | ||
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Assume The Sheriff is Mafia. Tell me how you plan to prevent the medic from being killed. Assume the 'vet' is Mafia. Tell me how you plan to prevent the medic from being killed. | ||
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On March 18 2009 08:34 semioldguy wrote: There are several reasons why I don't like this plan. On March 18 2009 04:38 semioldguy wrote: Mafia have no way to protect amongst themselves. Additionally a Vigilante could just publicly call out his hit the day before he plans on carrying it out. Since they only get one hit and after they use it they would have no special ability any longer. This would also keep the Medics from potentially protecting the Vigilante's hit. A Mafia could fake it by saying he is a Vigilante and is going to hit ___ person in order to keep a Medic off them, but this is unlikely as a Vigilante shouldn't be targeting someone unless he is a prime suspect. At which point eventually we will realize there are more Vigilante role claims then there are of that role in the game and all Vigilante-claimed individuals would be put into suspicion. If the Mafia kills the Vigilantes after they hit their targets, then it makes it riskier/more difficult to role-claim that themselves. I don't get it. What do you guys disagree about? | ||
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On March 18 2009 08:47 semioldguy wrote: Also if every vigilante calls himself out as he kills then Mafia can't easily fake role claim as Vigilantes because before very long the numbers will not add up and we will have a small list with suspects, which is good for us. Also if Mafia don't try to fake roleclaim then we know to disregard clues that show up for the people who are claiming to be vigilantes, which is also good for us. ....seriously fusionsdf, this has all been mentioned already. hey, that has nothing to do with anything I posted | ||
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And in this game it seems like the most valuable people will be the clue-solvers. | ||
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On March 19 2009 08:39 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Ok, I have some reading to do to get fully caught up from my working into drink fest last night. But. Why are people voting for mayor/sheriff choices based off day 1 clue/behaviour analysis? I know that its a good way to catch mafia on both counts, but heres the issue. Day 1 clues will have only 2-4 clues total each insanely vague, and each to a different mafia, never more clues pointing at it. Also, chuiu typically has his clues as specific words, so using an entire sentence isn't his style bases on past games. Next, we have barely any posting habits to follow on someones behaviour to have it exactly down at this point, it is just as hard to prove someone is mafia off the little posting done. I understand both areas are equally important, but for day 1, neither are truely reliable. because its going to be impossible to organize town this time, so the goal is to put someone in mayor/sheriff we want to keep alive. clue analyzers are people we want to keep alive. The second reason, and pyrr is going to hate this, is if he all of a sudden starts giving bad analysis or stops analyzing, we will increase our suspicion of him being mafia. In other words hes analyzing clues to save his life ha ha ha | ||
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On March 19 2009 06:08 MasterOfChaos wrote: I don't find the pikachu clue analysis very convincing as I can't relate a single one of your clues to pikachu. For example I see nothing about a shockwave on the posted card, and how sprinting is related to pokemon is simply beyond me. But that might be because I'm not familiar with pokemon. Pikachu is known for two moves: shockwave  aralyzes the enemy and Quick Attack (Especially in the anime): an attack that strikes first. Quick attack is always depicted as lowering yourself to the grounds and running so fast the lines appear so they are both valid. I wouldn't say they are guaranteed or even likely, but its reasonable enough for a first day. If we have to lynch someone on the first day, then it makes sense to lynch the person with the most clues against them, even if the clues aren't 100%. So if pikachu doesnt want to die, he should do his own clue analysis, and find a better connection. | ||
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At least if we kill of pikachu now, we know any future clues that might point to him won't and we get rid of what is right now our prime suspect. Yeah I've acknowledged that the case is really shaky; I think its more likely that pikachu is innocent than he is guilty...but the odds of pikachu being mafia are still greater than every other person in the game right now. And thats why he should be lynched. | ||
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On March 19 2009 09:41 Pika Chu wrote: I change my vote for BloodyC0bbler. It looks like i'm going to be the first lynched. After you'll see i'm innocent i hope you will grow up and stop being so naive. Honestly, all the "clues" and connections that point me are very very forced. How is in any way better to lynch me if you think i'm more innocent than guilty? I mean it makes absolutely no sense since you are loosing one of your own, and the purpose is to kill mafia not kill your own just because it's the only one who has some weak clues pointing to him. And you don't even know my role, so you are risking killing a medic, or a bodyguard or a vigilante just because you have no better alternative. Basically risk loosing the game because you can't simply think outside the box and step by the first evidence you were given. And for those telling me to find clues. I honestly don't want to blame anyone. The only thing Pyrr did was find a clue and try and force connections with someone. I'm not going to try and frame someone like it's been done on me, for the sole purpose of not wanting to be found guilty when you'll be lynching one of ours because of my "findings". Remember guys, it's finding clues, making connections and finding the guy that is hard, not the way around. Finding the guy then making connections and finding clues is the easy way and it's the trap you've been set and most are falling into. look, I don't want you to be lynched. If you want to stay alive, why not due some clue analysis of your own? If someone is a more likely suspect than you then it makes you safer right? I should point out that the first game MTF played this came up and he was about to be lynched. We encouraged to save himself, and he did by posting amazing clue analyses. Don't get mad at us if you get lynched; its because you didnt put enough effort into keeping yourself alive. About the inactives: yes, thats also a good method to lynch on. Does anyone have a list of inactives? | ||
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On March 19 2009 11:34 redtooth wrote: alright, the last two votes likely put semioldguy over the top. as it stands, its BC and semioldguy getting the elected positions. you don't find all this bandwagoning the least bit suspicious? | ||
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On March 19 2009 12:18 ZaplinG wrote: I was going to keep fairly quiet until things died down a little bit, but who is Pyrrhuloxia and why is he getting so much support? I mean, I know who semi-old guy is, I know who BC is, I saw that Mr.BabyHands was backed by Ace and Caller from the start and I know who they are... ...but Pyrrhuloxia seems a little random to me. Did he play a major role in earlier mafia games, or what? If all you are voting him in on is a shoddy day 1 clue analysis (lol?), then I just don't get it. I'm not accusing anyone here, I'm just a little confused and a little under-read. Did BC? Did semioldguy? Are you really voting based on name recognition on TL as a whole? If you're just going to blindly vote people with colored names, might I suggest rage or bockit | ||
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and there are lots of people here who can claim to be behind the town circle in one or multiple games | ||
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On March 19 2009 17:17 Ace wrote: @redtooth: I wasn't going to run for Mayor if I saw good candidates. I started late and the only person that I'd back was Mr.BabyHands. That being said, leave the Pika Chu shit alone. He shouldn't even be close to being lynched. A DT will probably check him out and figure it out from there or we'll wait for more clues. This is exactly why I said you shouldn't be in any position of power. No idea why anyone would vote semioldguy in, good going town. so now me, Ver, Camlito, Mr.BabyHands, Versatile and other good players are left out in the cold. Real smart. Yet you don't say it about BC....interesting | ||
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On March 19 2009 17:54 Pika Chu wrote: Look, i couldn't care less if i get lynched, it's a game and it's the first time i play it. What i do care about is that you aren't thinking. Too many of you aren't reading all the posts and are way too enthusiast when they've been given a track, they even stop questioning over it and just go with the band wagon. And the second problem is, this stupid mentality of blaming someone else. I really really hate this mentality and i believe only retarded people use this who don't have enough integrity to stand on their own feet and you are telling me to use it and find someone to blame? Seriously man what am i, a 10 year kiddo or do i look retarded to you? Now i've realized that most (which have actually voted for pyrr) aren't really looking for clues and don't even care, they are only looking for show. And sorry but i am not willing to contribute to this senseless show, i prefer keeping things simple and honest. It's exactly like politics. Some people really don't give a fuck to what they say, they just watch the show and think "man, he did blame the other one for being a pedo? this guy is cool, i'm voting for him". Take a good look at everyone who voted for pyrr, they aren't interested in reasoning but in bandwagoning the simple stuff. Throw a bone and they'll fetch it, no questions asked. so basically: " I'm innocent, if you don't blindly believe me even though there are potential clues pointing my way, then you are doing it because you aren't thinking! I'm not even going to try and suggest someone else to lynch (with some reasoning) and I won't show I'm in any way useful to town at all! BUT YOU GUYS ARE MAKING A MISTAKE" nice defense. Like I said, if your head is on the chopping block, and you don't properly defend yourself, its your own damn fault. I don't want you lynched because its the cool thing to do, I want you lynched because you've had multiple chances to defend yourself and refused to do so | ||
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And now when I ask you again, you dodge again. So I'll ask you yet again. Who would you lynch instead? Where is your clue analysis? | ||
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On March 20 2009 01:08 BWdero wrote: Fusionsdf, Pikachu did indeed defend himself, he challenged the accusations directed at him directly as opposed to suggesting someone else to lynch. You know, I really don't like your suggested manner of defense. Why? Well let us say that Pikachu did defend himself in the manner you suggest. He has now accused another player of being mafia and/or deserving of being lynched. Now, according to you, this person should defend himself by presenting us with another lynchworthy person. Now it doesn't take a rocketscientist to see that such a code of conduct could very easily lead to a massive fingerpointing war. Which is exactly what we do not want. nope, it leads to a massive clue analyzing war. which, while not amazingly helpful on day one does give us a baseline for player behavior and WILL be useful on future days | ||
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On March 20 2009 20:30 redtooth wrote: lol no edit rule still applies. else people can claim "wrong thread" every time they jack something up. when's morning? yeah only noobs edit postst | ||
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On March 21 2009 15:52 Ace wrote: why would it go down? because qatol was blue and qatol was BC's biggest supporter. Not saying BC is innocent, but it looks a lot better than if qatol was red | ||
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On March 21 2009 21:19 Bockit wrote: Well at this point, I'm all for voting for mandalor. Possibilities that I can see: 1)SoG is mafia a)Mandalor is mafia and he's sacrificing a likely-to-be-killed mafia member to gain our trust b)Mandalor is town aligned and I can't explain why this scenario would ever happen given the current state of things (SoG elected office etc) 2)SoG is a detective a)Mandalor is mafia b)Mandalor is a miller 3)SoG is a townie So 1b) and 3) are stupid but there for the sake of completion. Leaving: 1a) 2a) and 2b) 1a) and 2a) get us a mafia kill. 2b) gets us not much. Statistics put put the chance of him being a miller reasonably low. Also we have the behavioural analysis of Ver/MBH. Thus: I vote for Mandalor I vote for a double lynch tomorrow I do this because we already have rice lined up and we'll have more clues to work with (we've barely scraped the surface of Day 2 clues as it is...) so it's very likely we'll have 2 prime suspects. That's leaving alone out other behavioural analysis that gets done. EDIT: BBCode >_> Agree, this just gives us a better (but not certain) fix on whether SoG is mafia I vote for Mandalor I vote for a double lynch tomorrow | ||
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On March 22 2009 10:25 Caller wrote: I have no idea why Ace got incarcerated, so BC could very well be a mafiaso here. Or Ace. Or Both. not saying that BC or Ace are/are not mafia, but BC's stated reason is that Ace was on the zodiac list, and incarcerating someone from the list keeps them alive. Unless Ace is blue (and he should be careful not to complain about being incarcerated for this reason), there is really no loss in him being incarcerated except that he won't be able to be incarcerated in the future. It seems like a reasonable course of action for BC to take imo. | ||
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In any case, its a move that made a fair bit of sense | ||
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don't be a blue don't be a blue edit: SUCCESS | ||
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On March 23 2009 23:20 BWdero wrote: Pyrrhuloxia, I feel that I should clarify my reasons for voting for you. The reason I did so was because after it became apparent that we weren't going to get a superduper organized and centralized town like in previous games I just wanted someone dedicated in the office, someone who would do his damn best to analyze clues. The amount of effort that went into the pikachu connection impressed me, more so than the efforts of the other candidates. Now of course I realize that they weren't trying so hard because day 1 clue analysis is stupid and voting for someone because of day 1 analysis is also stupid. (thanks to the many veteran players for pointing that out) So yeah I guess we're lucky semiolgguy got in over you. Just wanted to clear that up since you appear to suspect several mafia voted for you. same. hmm looks like I'm going to have to try and condense those two huge posts above and add them to my blog  | ||
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On March 24 2009 04:38 redtooth wrote: I've been out for a while but I'm glad to come back to good news. Now that mandalor's flipped red (and mafia KP is lowered) I say we should go ahead and cluecheck Rice. Rolecheck priorities should go to Ace and BC. Also, Ace is protected tonight because of Incarceration right? To Chuiu and special role players (including mafia): Let's hurry up and get the next morning up. To Medics: I trust that you guys will make the right decisions To fusiondf: Are you going to actively maintain that blog? You should put it on your profile or something because its drowned among the billion other blogs in TL. yep. I try and read through the thread, but if anyone wants something to be included in the blog, its best to PM me, since its easiest to add, it I can add it pretty quickly since I'll see it soon after you post and it won't get drowned in a sea of long posts that don't say anything. | ||
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If we value DTs to mafia 1 to 1, then after 4 sog lead lynches, it might be suitable for the DTs to roleclaim to sog. The reasoning is, even if it was a mafia ploy, they screwed up and came out behind anyways, and if it isn't a ploy then we come out even further ahead. Of course you have to worry about how many mafia a dt is worth, and how directly sog contributed to the lynch, so its fairly theoretical sog: It seems equally likely (assuming your innocence) that the roleclaiming dt is a dt or mafia. I would suggest coming up with a way to test, and not ignoring the roleclaimed completely. If you can construct a situation where there is a 1-1 trade of townie for mafia, its in town's interest to do so | ||
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I think we just have to trust him | ||
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You are the primary elected role of the game. You get to, four times during the game, incarcerate a player for one day. You must PM me if you want to incarcerate a player and it will happen the next day. so I don't really get what you are saying... mafia send in their hits before night too right? The key thing is that BC shouldnt say who he will jail, or give any hints until we can be sure that mafia have sent in all their hints. ideally, from an anti-mafia standpoint, it would be best if they didn't know who was in jail if anyone, but I dont think thats practical from a gameplay standpoint | ||
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On March 24 2009 13:43 Caller wrote: Hmm bloodycobbler is number 3... didnt see he was already dead lol | ||
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On March 24 2009 13:49 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: whoa crazy EDIT (to add this to a pretty much useless post and avoid my 76th double post of the thread): I would have thought iNfuNdiBuLuM due to the chest part... but he's dead obviously If a bunch of people got hit in the throat i might think Caller (Collar) Gonna keep this in mind too It might be a clue, but don't assume it. In the first game pretty much every attack was a kick, and it was never an intended clue | ||
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looks like I'm voting #I vote for scooter #I vote for humbug not strong on humbug, but whatever. Doesn't make sense to vote for double lynch and then vote for one person. To be honest I'm super busy and havent been able to follow the majority of the clue analysis (let alone do my own), so I'm really just following the crowd | ||
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On March 25 2009 08:49 Rice wrote: I made a post about the recurring 3s( as well as some other clue analysis) earlier in this thread but I think it go overlooked due to the hour in which I posted it. PM it to me and I'll add it to my blog | ||
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we're 4 for 4. And it has nothing to do with the mafia being stupid and role-claiming townie this time | ||
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On March 27 2009 13:46 Fishball wrote: Ok, it is time. I am the last remaining Vigilante. Tricode was my kill. Thus far, only MBH, SoG, and BC knows my role and can testify for me. (It was MBH who found me) To those who still "suspects" us, which I'm sure there will be someone, keep in mind that our little circle is responsible for all 5 mafia kills this game, every single one of them. If we were to be Mafia, we are just pushing it way too far. Also, Mafia cannot kill their own members, so unless another person decides to come forward and role claim Vigilante (which I hope someone actually does ), there is really no argument against us, and we are legit Townies.Right now, we have a 48 hour window. I need everyone to PM me their roles. Our little group has most blue roles revealed, including all 3 DT's with SoG being one of them. It is most likely that I will die during the next Morning, but it wouldn't matter as my mission now is to gather as much info as possible and pass it along to my group. You're help/lies would be greatly appreciated! Even if we believe in you, how can we believe in the entire group? | ||
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#I vote for double lynch | ||
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At this point if I was the mafia I would openly be trying to sow seeds of doubt. They aren't going to win anyways, so they might at least try to take as many townies with them as they can | ||
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## I vote for ahswtini | ||
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