EPTTL Mafia 5 [Game Over]
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JL13
United States1384 Posts
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JL13
United States1384 Posts
Pyrr had a really cool clue analysis for Pikachu. Everything seems spot on. If this analysis is wrong, we still need to look into people who could potentially complete those same feats. The story also says that the three mafia who escaped were waiting for something. The thing they were waiting can potentially either be the fourth mafia member (who stayed behind and killed Incognito) or this can be a clue for a mafia delaying/waiting/idling. One of the mafia members "helps" Chuiu up before he stabbing him in the chest. It's been stated before, but one of the mafia members can be "friendly, helpful, generous." Incognito was searching for something, trying to score. The use of "score" seems slightly off, but nevertheless, "whatever could be found, was lost" is the main clue I'm thinking of atm. This can be linked to stuff like, "unrecoverable things, permanent disappearances, rescue teams searching to no avail." I really don't know where to go from here, but based off Chuiu's last game, he stretched a good portion of clues and I think "whatever could be found, was lost" fits that category the best. As for mayor/sheriff, etc. Babyhands seemed slightly suspicious but that was mainly because of his low post count. The clue for semioldguy (being the mafia member driving the car and not hearing too well) was quite disturbing to say the least. If Pyrr's analysis is dead-on, I'd be wary because I believe... one game, Truthbringer was set-up by his own godfather. So this could be a similar ploy. Mafia have a better chance at getting clues spot-on than innocents. I can attest to that based off my own clue analysis in these games (not very accurate T_T). Anyway setting that aside, the depth that Pyrr is going through seems like he is more likely town than mafia. | ||
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JL13
United States1384 Posts
Of course, this possibility is kinda out in left field and I'd like to think you're town =) Regardless what color Pikachu flips, you still are most likely going to be targeted just because you're really active, throwing out a lot of ideas, etc. Unless of course, you are mafia. tbh, i am gonna sleep. Hopefully that made sense. | ||
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JL13
United States1384 Posts
Mafia in general will do their best to always help the town. However, there is a line that can be drawn when mafia help way too much. Such an example is last mafia game, when LTT, etc brought forth a pretty awesome plan; there was no way that they could be mafia because they were helping the town way too much. So keep that in mind when dealing with people, too. I don't really have any thoughts on BC. He seems pretty chill. @Dreamflower. Nice catch at 3Lions. This may help clear some doubt off Pikachu, who's been accused heavily thus far. Keep posting. I remember my first game, I had severe doubts in (2/3 mafia because one promoted taking out someone and the other two followed his support heavily) but I only kept it between MikeyMoo and myself. Of course there may be some things you want to keep silent, but the more you post/talk, the more things everyone can bounce ideas off of. Speaking of that, I offered some initial things we could start looking for at the bottom of Page 28. And lastly, nice lynch regardless if it was random or not, the next mafia kill will drop their KP to 5. | ||
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JL13
United States1384 Posts
1) Do vigi's publicly claim their hits after sending PMs to Chuiu, thus medics don't protect vigi hits ensuring the hit goes through regardless if the target is town/mafia? 2) Do vigi's stay silent and pray medics don't protect the target? Am I getting this right? I will post my opinions once I get this cleared up. | ||
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JL13
United States1384 Posts
2) Vigi's just stay silent about who they are hitting. They hit whoever they want. Highly suspected people will get lynched/rolechecked. I'd prefer a vigi killing a silent mafia based off good clue analysis behind-the-scenes (See mafia #2? I forgot what happened, but Plexa was mafia in that game). Medics protect whoever they want. | ||
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JL13
United States1384 Posts
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JL13
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Here are a few problems with Vigi publicly claiming: First and foremost: Mafia kill the Vigi by potentially stacking hits. I think it'd be in the mafia's best interest to kill the Vigi. Sure, he's no longer a blue but that's 1 dead townie that could have been confirmed at some point. This turns into a mind game between mafia and medics: how many hits/saves should be spent to save a potential townie. If the hit was green a) mafia ignore the hit, GJ vigi, you helped kill stuff for us b) Very unlikely. Mafia Kill-steal. GJ vigi, we were gonna kill that person eventually anyway If the hit was red a) dead mafia. GJ vigi. Town trades 1 vigi for 1 mafia Here are some cool things to gain for Vigi publicly claiming: 1) DTs save rolechecks (which shouldn't be used on highly suspected people anyway since they are suspected already). 2) Medic's don't waste their protections. Here are problems with Vigi not publicly claiming: 1) DTs can potentially waste rolechecks (which shouldn't happen if DTs are good) 2) Medic's can potentially waste protections, thus wasting the vigi's hit. Then if medic protects a mafia from a vigi hit, lots of bad stuff happens. The medic protecting will die at least. Here are some cool things that happen: 1) Mafia is kept in the dark. Less info the better. | ||
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JL13
United States1384 Posts
I'd imagine the probability of that being not too bad. Basically, by publicly claiming, mafia can either kill you off and deal with one less potential townie or mind-game everyone to kingdom come if the hit you claim is green. For those arguing in favor of publicly claim, is wasting medic protections/stupid DTs' rolechecks that important when you are giving Mafia just more info? If you answer yes, I need to come up with a better argument... I type too slow T_T: Ace already has a mega post that I haven't gotten to read yet. | ||
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JL13
United States1384 Posts
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JL13
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On March 20 2009 11:05 semioldguy wrote: Like several things I and Qatol have mentioned already. (aka this has all been stated so if you've actually been reading the thread you can skip this post) We don't want Vigi kills (1) Overlapping with each other or (2) Overlapping with DT role-checks. Sure Vigis will get their hit back, but if they die that night then their hit was wasted when they might have used it somewhere else. If we assume all Vigis call their targets, then any time one calls a target and more innocents die than mafia have kill power we know he is innocent. If it was a Mafia trying to roleclaim the only way he could appear as a Vigilante was if another vigilante was stupid and decided to kill someone without saying anything. If the Vigi calls out and there wasnt and extra dead body, we lose nothing, but have effectively lessened the mafia killpower by one for the night. How is that bad? If this is your main concern, throw that into my calculation. There is always a slight chance that... x2 vigis hit a target that's being protected by a medic. But vigi overlap, if you want a 100% sure-fire way then, yeah the argument for vigi role claim is pretty much there. also, you need to look at the aftermath of the night. Sure you get the bonus of nothing overlapped, but now you deal with KP adjustments, etc. Vigi can claim their hit was refunded, but then everything happens all over again, you have a Vigi with a wasted power until he chooses a red target. By then, that vigi should be dead anyway. Ignore the DT rolecheck overlap. DTs should/will be smart we have to assume. | ||
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JL13
United States1384 Posts
Caller posted some clue analysis right after the morning post was released. Forgot to mention his name in my earlier posts. | ||
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JL13
United States1384 Posts
1) Making sure vigi's don't overlap 2) Making sure DT's don't overlap I don't think there is another way of ensuring that stuff doesn't overlap. I also agree there isn't anything to lose beforehand either. My main concern is what happens afterward if we follow that plan. @ Qatol, I'm not saying to verify his analysis, but Caller bolded and listed a few sentences in the story "that might be clues and could be checked." Page 8 for reference if anyone needs it. | ||
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JL13
United States1384 Posts
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JL13
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On March 20 2009 11:59 Qatol wrote: Since nobody else is takling about this, I will get things started: The guy offering to help Chuiu up The guy charging at Chuiu while having his hands behind his head The third guy not getting out of the car The shockwave from the builiding explosion (I highly doubt this is a clue, but it was discussed) The item Incognito finding staying lost If anyone has a better idea, please post it. This is a good compilation of what's been discussed so far. Also, remember one of the mafia, that killed Incognito, stayed behind to make sure he was dead. That brings the total to four mafia. 1) Guy charging 2) Guy helping 3) Guy driving 4) Guy making sure Incognito was dead. Also, there's a sentence when Chuiu describes the three men running away to the car: "He noticed they weren't leaving right away, what could they be waiting for?" | ||
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JL13
United States1384 Posts
That quote stood out to me the most and seemed the most awkward sentence throughout the story. | ||
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JL13
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BC/SoG are elected officials. Pyrr was a close third. Pyrr's platform was clue analysis, which really should be disregarded because any good townie/mafia will clue analyze, and day 1 clue analysis is lol. MrBabyHands a distant 4th. Results are on Page 28. Throughout the campaign, a lot of debating/bouncing ideas off each other. Heavy tension between Mandalor/MBH Page 23. Heavy tension between Pyrr/Pikachu about a clue leading to Pikachu. Pages a lot =). RoL is lynched for being inactive. Debating whether vigi's should claim publicly after they PM their hits between Ace/me and SoG/Qatol although that's been pretty much settled Page 34ish or so. | ||
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JL13
United States1384 Posts
On March 20 2009 13:29 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: @JL13 Lol my platform wasn't clue analysis, although it was the reasoning of most of my supporters. This is why I don't summarize I usually find something off putting about them. Lol, my bad. I realized this right after I saw your post regarding avoiding bias ^_^. | ||
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JL13
United States1384 Posts
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JL13
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Scaramanga: From the analysis: dumb as hell town/mafia. Just to let all BGs know. DO NOT ROLECLAIM. If one of the elected persons are mafia, they will kill the BGs in order to kill the other elected official. BC/SoG are people we cannot trust as they cannot be role-checked to confirm their allegiance. Mandalor: definitely has merit, but I think the evidence against scara is greater and I think lynching Scaramanga, being the "bad mafia player" he is, would benefit regardless: either dead dumb town, or dead mafia. Please Scara, don't take this harshly ^_^. Caller: Somewhat suspicious, but I think his counter-argument can be seen as legit. This for now keeps malongo off as well. LucasWoJ: For everyone to know, it's Page 23-24. And yes, I have some doubt depending whether or not mandalor flips town/mafia. Also, in the previous 2 mafia games I've played with him, I want to say he actively PM'd many people just to talk/chat. I believe he was townie in both. However this game, he seems rather quiet in PMs. Can anyone else vouch for the previous 2 games' PM behavior? 0cz3c: Also rather weird behavior because previously, he was like a random chaos generator. But then again, he's brought forth an argument in the fact that he's toned it down cause it wasn't working well. But yeah, he's being more subtle this game. Anyway, out of your suspect list, if I had to choose one person, I suppose it'd be LucasWoJ. I'm going to come up with a few suspects myself so the town can analyze more stuff. | ||
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JL13
United States1384 Posts
1) MrBabyHands. Never played with the guy, but his debut is definitely something. Just because his unwavering attitude and calling out people in mega-behavioral analysis has me a little confused. He's like an insane psychologist or obsessive police cop or something, lol. 2) Camlito. He's finally posted, so my suspicion has been lifted slightly. But I think he's generally quiet so not much so say. 3) Random voters voting with no particular reasoning. Teejing Page14. Tricode Page18. 3Lions, ahswtni. Also, CynanMachae, but less likely since he switched votes. 4) Lurker. Random sheriff post Page9. Iunno, anyone have thoughts on these people? | ||
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JL13
United States1384 Posts
First off: BC incarcerating Ace means that BC and Ace are mostly likely not mafia together. Why would he incarcerate a fellow mafia when Vigilante's can't act night 1? Mafia have no fear of being killed during Night 1. This leaves these possibilities: BC is town, thinks Ace will be hit, thus protects Ace for the night. BC is mafia, thinks Ace is a power role, thus denying Ace's powers for the night. BC claims he was just following the Zodiac Brave list, but there's a chance BC has other motives. Night 1 killings = bad. First off, you have BG+Vigi dying. Since vigi's can't act night 1, Ver's hit was not used. I'd like to think our sheriff/mayor played no part in Qatol's death T_T. Other business. Some more suspect posting behavior. ahswtini. Page18 is a random vote for BC with not much justification. Page40 is talking about waiting for morning to come and re-reading everything, just a bunch of randomness. Phrujbaz. Page 39 is him bringing up the vigi discussion all over again, mentioning also that he "doesn't want to beat a dead horse." Why post such a huge reply then? Then while the entire town is voting for either Rice/Mandalor/etc, he puts up a vote for Lucktar? I'm a little confused. ##I vote to lynch mandalor ##I vote for a double lynch Here's my reasoning: Mandalor flips Miller. SoG is prob DT or at least in contact with a DT. Mandalor flips Mafia. SoG is not as likely if Mandalor flipped Miller instead. Because this can be a ploy for SoG to gain more trust. But then again, mafia loses 1 KP, so it's a good enough benefit to the town regardless what color Mandalor flips. Mandalor flips blue. Well, I won't even consider this case. But that would most likely mean SoG is mafia or he got totally played by a mafia faking DT. Malongo has a pretty nice post, Page45 full of bolded potential clues and such. Pyrr has an insightful clue to infundibulum Page50. There is plenty of clue analysis so SoG/claimed DT/hidden DT should split up clue checks/role checks. Well, not SoG since he can only clue check day 1. I would suggest SoG to checking "Whatever that could be found, was lost." I feel that was the biggest clue that sprang up. For everyone in general, Day 1 Clue analysis was recapped by Bockit Page37. Thoughts? I will post my own clue analysis at some point, too. | ||
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JL13
United States1384 Posts
BC is mafia, protects a fellow mafia BC is town, protects a fellow town BC is town, just following Ace's Zodiac Brave plan. So yeah... with my new understanding Qatol's death is more troubling... | ||
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JL13
United States1384 Posts
If #3 comes up DT, we have #2 confirmed DT. If #3 comes up anything besides DT, #2 is mafia This is a massive loss. I'm not sure if it's in the town's best interest to go this path. Town trades 1 DT (#3) for a confirmed DT (#2), or 1 town role (#3) for a confirmed mafia (#2). #3 DT will post publicly everything he knows/has done before he gets lynched. I'd figure to throw this out there if we have no other way of dealing with this problem. I'll figure something else out if possible, but since there is very little time before night ends, I thought I should post this immediately. Btw, if #3 has NOT used a night action, I think I have a plan that will net the town either 3 confirmed DTs or 2 confirmed mafia, not sure, still working out its logic. | ||
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JL13
United States1384 Posts
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JL13
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