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On November 20 2008 02:36 Qatol wrote:
It seems to me that it is unlikely that the bodyguards got fake lists which have mafia inserted into them. There is a pretty simple thing they can do to check. Both Caller AND MTF have the list of all of them. Both Caller and MTF have to compare lists with all of the bodyguards. If the bodyguards are split up, then some of them will notice that they were never messaged by Caller (since MTF has the full list of the legit bodyguards anyways and would have to be the one splitting them up). The only way that the bodyguards are split up in this case is if BOTH Caller AND MTF are mafia. This seems unlikely to me.
True.
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On November 20 2008 02:38 Kweezy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 20 2008 02:36 Qatol wrote:
It seems to me that it is unlikely that the bodyguards got fake lists which have mafia inserted into them. There is a pretty simple thing they can do to check. Both Caller AND MTF have the list of all of them. Both Caller and MTF have to compare lists with all of the bodyguards. If the bodyguards are split up, then some of them will notice that they were never messaged by Caller (since MTF has the full list of the legit bodyguards anyways and would have to be the one splitting them up). The only way that the bodyguards are split up in this case is if BOTH Caller AND MTF are mafia. This seems unlikely to me. True.
not only would we have to be mafia but we would have to be from the same family
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On November 20 2008 02:44 Caller wrote:Show nested quote +On November 20 2008 02:38 Kweezy wrote:On November 20 2008 02:36 Qatol wrote:
It seems to me that it is unlikely that the bodyguards got fake lists which have mafia inserted into them. There is a pretty simple thing they can do to check. Both Caller AND MTF have the list of all of them. Both Caller and MTF have to compare lists with all of the bodyguards. If the bodyguards are split up, then some of them will notice that they were never messaged by Caller (since MTF has the full list of the legit bodyguards anyways and would have to be the one splitting them up). The only way that the bodyguards are split up in this case is if BOTH Caller AND MTF are mafia. This seems unlikely to me. True. not only would we have to be mafia but we would have to be from the same family
Not necessarily. It is in the best interest of BOTH families that this would go through. One family (MTF's) would get the list of the town's roles. The other family (Caller's) would get the identities of at least 4 mafias/traitors from the other family (Since the best way to split up the BGs is to go B1 B2 B3 M1 M2 and B4 B5 M1 M2 M3) and then they also know MTF is from that family. Remember, the families have to eliminate each other as well as outnumbering townies.
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On November 20 2008 02:52 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On November 20 2008 02:44 Caller wrote:On November 20 2008 02:38 Kweezy wrote:On November 20 2008 02:36 Qatol wrote:
It seems to me that it is unlikely that the bodyguards got fake lists which have mafia inserted into them. There is a pretty simple thing they can do to check. Both Caller AND MTF have the list of all of them. Both Caller and MTF have to compare lists with all of the bodyguards. If the bodyguards are split up, then some of them will notice that they were never messaged by Caller (since MTF has the full list of the legit bodyguards anyways and would have to be the one splitting them up). The only way that the bodyguards are split up in this case is if BOTH Caller AND MTF are mafia. This seems unlikely to me. True. not only would we have to be mafia but we would have to be from the same family Not necessarily. It is in the best interest of BOTH families that this would go through. One family (MTF's) would get the list of the town's roles. The other family (Caller's) would get the identities of at least 4 mafias/traitors from the other family (Since the best way to split up the BGs is to go B1 B2 B3 M1 M2 and B4 B5 M1 M2 M3) and then they also know MTF is from that family. Remember, the families have to eliminate each other as well as outnumbering townies.
So why would mafia give up 4of their names to the other mafia
This assumes three things
Were both mafia
We are working together
The other side is going to be at a huge disadvantage if mafia is at am advantage
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On November 20 2008 02:58 Caller wrote:Show nested quote +On November 20 2008 02:52 Qatol wrote:On November 20 2008 02:44 Caller wrote:On November 20 2008 02:38 Kweezy wrote:On November 20 2008 02:36 Qatol wrote:
It seems to me that it is unlikely that the bodyguards got fake lists which have mafia inserted into them. There is a pretty simple thing they can do to check. Both Caller AND MTF have the list of all of them. Both Caller and MTF have to compare lists with all of the bodyguards. If the bodyguards are split up, then some of them will notice that they were never messaged by Caller (since MTF has the full list of the legit bodyguards anyways and would have to be the one splitting them up). The only way that the bodyguards are split up in this case is if BOTH Caller AND MTF are mafia. This seems unlikely to me. True. not only would we have to be mafia but we would have to be from the same family Not necessarily. It is in the best interest of BOTH families that this would go through. One family (MTF's) would get the list of the town's roles. The other family (Caller's) would get the identities of at least 4 mafias/traitors from the other family (Since the best way to split up the BGs is to go B1 B2 B3 M1 M2 and B4 B5 M1 M2 M3) and then they also know MTF is from that family. Remember, the families have to eliminate each other as well as outnumbering townies. So why would mafia give up 4of their names to the other mafia This assumes three things Were both mafia We are working together The other side is going to be at a huge disadvantage if mafia is at am advantage
Yeah. Not only are you right, but also you two don't KNOW you are both mafia, and MTF would be taking a HUGE risk to send out multiple BG lists even if you ARE part of the other family. Regardless, my point is that it is unlikely that by following the modified BG plan we will be handing the game to the mafia
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You guys are analyzing things in circles the only real thing that we could analyze is probably voting patterns until Ace starts the first day and gives us clues.
+ Show Spoiler +On November 19 2008 05:52 BuGzlToOnl wrote:
The following were voting patterns that changed their votes once or multiple times. Can probably pick up a couple of clues as to who is mafia with multiple votings which lead back to the same person.
- MTF --> Votes Plexa --> changes to Ver --> changes to Caller
- Versatile --> votes Caller --> changes to Ver --> changes back to Caller
- waterGHOSTCLAWdragon --> votes clazzi --> changes to Caller
- Trancestorm --> votes Ver --> changes to Caller
- Camlito --> votes Ver --> changes to Caller
- LucasWoJ --> votes Ver --> changes to Caller --> back to Ver --> back to Caller
- TruthBringer --> votes Caller --> changes to MTF -->back to Caller
- Spike --> votes Plexa --> change to Caller
- spetial --> votes clazz --> changes to Caller
- Double D --> votes Caller --> changes to Ver
- KlassyK --> votes Plexa --> changes to Ver
- Pyrrhuloxia --> votes Caller --> changes to Ver
- JeeJee --> votes Ver --> changes to MTF
- Vivi57 --> votes caller --> changes to MTF
- ShadowDrgn --> votes Ver --> changes to MTF
- Qatol --> votes Caller -->changers to MTF --> back to Caller --> back to Ver --> and again to MTF
- HeRoS)Pink --> votes Plexa --> changes to Ver --> changes to MTF
- Scaramanga --> votes Caller --> changes to Plexa --> changes to MTF
- malongo --> voting clazzi->retires->abstain->plexa->mtf [
- inertinept --> votes MTF --> changes to Plexa
- ulszz --> votes Plexa --> abstains
- Other suspicious actions clazzi dropping out of elections.
Didn't redo the list, but did add malongo's post. If someone has some free time feel free to redo it.
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On November 20 2008 03:05 BuGzlToOnl wrote:You guys are analyzing things in circles the only real thing that we could analyze is probably voting patterns until Ace starts the first day and gives us clues. + Show Spoiler +On November 19 2008 05:52 BuGzlToOnl wrote:
The following were voting patterns that changed their votes once or multiple times. Can probably pick up a couple of clues as to who is mafia with multiple votings which lead back to the same person.
- MTF --> Votes Plexa --> changes to Ver --> changes to Caller
- Versatile --> votes Caller --> changes to Ver --> changes back to Caller
- waterGHOSTCLAWdragon --> votes clazzi --> changes to Caller
- Trancestorm --> votes Ver --> changes to Caller
- Camlito --> votes Ver --> changes to Caller
- LucasWoJ --> votes Ver --> changes to Caller --> back to Ver --> back to Caller
- TruthBringer --> votes Caller --> changes to MTF -->back to Caller
- Spike --> votes Plexa --> change to Caller
- spetial --> votes clazz --> changes to Caller
- Double D --> votes Caller --> changes to Ver
- KlassyK --> votes Plexa --> changes to Ver
- Pyrrhuloxia --> votes Caller --> changes to Ver
- JeeJee --> votes Ver --> changes to MTF
- Vivi57 --> votes caller --> changes to MTF
- ShadowDrgn --> votes Ver --> changes to MTF
- Qatol --> votes Caller -->changers to MTF --> back to Caller --> back to Ver --> and again to MTF
- HeRoS)Pink --> votes Plexa --> changes to Ver --> changes to MTF
- Scaramanga --> votes Caller --> changes to Plexa --> changes to MTF
- malongo --> voting clazzi->retires->abstain->plexa->mtf [
- inertinept --> votes MTF --> changes to Plexa
- ulszz --> votes Plexa --> abstains
- Other suspicious actions clazzi dropping out of elections.
Didn't redo the list, but did add malongo's post. If someone has some free time feel free to redo it.
yeah... plus the first post after the double list plan already said what you all just posted... lmao
maybe my grammer and punctuation are too confusing =p
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What do you expect  ?
Nothing has happened, and most of the "run-around-in-circles" analysis has already been beaten to death.
Not much we can do really.
Just wait for Ace for the real action that should happen later tonight.
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Yeah I will agree that the scenario i proposed is unlikely given the game we are in now (2 mafia families, double mayor basically.) I am more making a point that even a flawless plan can have flaws in it and to be careful.
I literally quiver with anticipation at the prospect of Ace's post.
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was there another delay declared after the one saying that he wouldn't be back for at least 12 hours?
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i've just received a pm from somebody claiming to be a vig who "trusts me enough." apparently they want to hedge their bets so as a result i have been requested to post this, which I am.
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Stop hypothesizing about total bullshit and get back to the task at hand.
It's a waste of time.
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My fellow Greens, I do not think that Caller is mafia. If you think he is, then why vote for him or MTF in the first place? Furthermore, if you did not vote for him or MTF, why? Is it because you are mafia?
I ask you again, IS IT BECAUSE YOU ARE MAFIA?
If the town hopes to overcome this chaotic debacle, it must unite. As a green townie, I plan to take a central role in this. If we unite and organize this mess, then there is very little we can't do, but, if we remain alone and distrustful, fellow townies, there is little we CAN do! I promise you fellow townies that with my help the town will fly to victory, but, if I have any sway over anyone's opinions, I think it is prudent that we, as honest, innocent, and vigilant townies, act decisively with Caller. I implore once more to throw support for our pardoner and out mayor! We need to unite to win! Death, famine, ruin, heinous acts and crimes are fast approaching, fellow townies. We need to stop this wind.
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On November 19 2008 13:22 LucasWoJ wrote:
As for MTF, I'd agree that something is a little fishy. Note how in the previous game, he analyzed something incorrectly and then claimed college/sleep as an excuse to lurk in the thread until he was once again accused. I guess it's highly unlikely, but it's similar behavior to how he behaved in a previous game. It's also something subtle that I don't think one does too consciously.
I guess we should trust him as he's our mayor, but wait, as Caller said, until we're completely safe before mailing him any roles.
If you guys need proof that I'm uni throughout the day then just have a mod IP check the posts I made yesterday when I was posting from on campus. :p It wasn't an excuse to lurk then or now, it really just was and is reality. I wasn't attending school at all during TL Mafia 2, which is why there's a difference between my schedules during the two games; I had a lot more time.
That being said, I'm free from school until next Tuesday, so now I'm really just waiting for the Day post to come up.
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On November 20 2008 03:05 BuGzlToOnl wrote:You guys are analyzing things in circles the only real thing that we could analyze is probably voting patterns until Ace starts the first day and gives us clues. + Show Spoiler +On November 19 2008 05:52 BuGzlToOnl wrote:
The following were voting patterns that changed their votes once or multiple times. Can probably pick up a couple of clues as to who is mafia with multiple votings which lead back to the same person.
- MTF --> Votes Plexa --> changes to Ver --> changes to Caller
- Versatile --> votes Caller --> changes to Ver --> changes back to Caller
- waterGHOSTCLAWdragon --> votes clazzi --> changes to Caller
- Trancestorm --> votes Ver --> changes to Caller
- Camlito --> votes Ver --> changes to Caller
- LucasWoJ --> votes Ver --> changes to Caller --> back to Ver --> back to Caller
- TruthBringer --> votes Caller --> changes to MTF -->back to Caller
- Spike --> votes Plexa --> change to Caller
- spetial --> votes clazz --> changes to Caller
- Double D --> votes Caller --> changes to Ver
- KlassyK --> votes Plexa --> changes to Ver
- Pyrrhuloxia --> votes Caller --> changes to Ver
- JeeJee --> votes Ver --> changes to MTF
- Vivi57 --> votes caller --> changes to MTF
- ShadowDrgn --> votes Ver --> changes to MTF
- Qatol --> votes Caller -->changers to MTF --> back to Caller --> back to Ver --> and again to MTF
- HeRoS)Pink --> votes Plexa --> changes to Ver --> changes to MTF
- Scaramanga --> votes Caller --> changes to Plexa --> changes to MTF
- malongo --> voting clazzi->retires->abstain->plexa->mtf [
- inertinept --> votes MTF --> changes to Plexa
- ulszz --> votes Plexa --> abstains
- Other suspicious actions clazzi dropping out of elections.
Didn't redo the list, but did add malongo's post. If someone has some free time feel free to redo it.
Overthinking overanalyzing separates the body from the mind
withering my intuition leaves all these opportunities behind
feed my will to feel this moment urging me to cross the line
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Oh yeah, has it been 12 hours yet? It's been a lonnnnnnnnnng night.
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I dunno why uni would stop you I'm posting this in class.
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EPT
