EPTTown looks like it has a much higher chance to win this game.
I'm still working on the game one write-up. It took me 50 minutes to write 1498 words, and it only analyzes up to immediately after the mayoral election so far.
TL Mafia 2 [GG]
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Empyrean
17014 Posts
Town looks like it has a much higher chance to win this game. I'm still working on the game one write-up. It took me 50 minutes to write 1498 words, and it only analyzes up to immediately after the mayoral election so far. | ||
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Empyrean
17014 Posts
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Empyrean
17014 Posts
Pfft :O | ||
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Empyrean
17014 Posts
On March 14 2008 16:16 qrs wrote: All I was saying was: assuming that 1) the Mafia will not cancel someone's candidacy, and 2) the Mafia does not want to put up more than X number of candidates, then 3) a candidate who had locked himself into running beforehand would have slightly higher odds of being Mafia than a candidate who hadn't. Look, I'm willing to drop the subject: it's only a slight difference. You didn't pass Statistics, did you :/ No fucking way is there an increase in chance of candidates being mafia if they decided before-hand that they would run for mayor no matter what. Especially since deciding to run before-hand is determined by the player and mafia status is chosen randomly by Chuiu. | ||
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Empyrean
17014 Posts
On March 14 2008 22:47 qrs wrote: It's not really worth getting into again, but my assumption was that a player's deciding to run beforehand would have an influence on the Mafia's decisions afterward (if that player was assigned to be Mafia). IOW, not that there is an increase in the chance of him being Mafia, but that there is a decrease in the chance of other Mafia running. If you don't agree, OK. Oh, I had no clue what you had intended to mean in your first post. In that case, I think I'll agree with what you had to say. | ||
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Empyrean
17014 Posts
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Empyrean
17014 Posts
Oh well :D | ||
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Empyrean
17014 Posts
I'm running for mayor as well. I have previous mafia experience, and have a good idea of how mafia like to conduct things. Furthermore, I'll take everyone's opinion into consideration, as well as analyze everything myself. The most important reason, and this is kind of risky saying it, but I am a detective. If I'm elected mayor, I'll be guaranteed to be safe from mafia attacks so I can publish my detective results daily, giving us a large boost. If you want, I can ask some easy questions confirming people's roles so they can back me up. The possibility of a Detective Mayor is something in the town's favor. Also, if you don't vote for me now, mafia will target me first night and the town'll be down a detective without me even asking anything :[ | ||
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Empyrean
17014 Posts
1. Even if I were mafia, a mafia mayor would still be good for the town. Think about it. Mayors have to act in town interest. If he doesn't, there is mass suspicion against him, and he can be lynched. It's in the town's best interest to always enact double-lynches. If, for some reason, the mayor declines, he's pretty much voted dead the next day. 2. Yes, I am forcing the town's hand. I'm fine with having someone confirm me as a detective, or for having people give me questions to confirm. If I am not mayor or pardoner, I'll be a likely target for the mafia the first night. They're smart enough to put multiple hits on people to ensure bodyguard protection is wasted. If mafia don't target me first night, I'll be able to reveal some more clues until they're forced to kill me or otherwise be revealed. [b]3. A detective mayor/pardoner is the best bet for the town. Why? At the end of the game, it's likely that at least one bodyguard will still be alive. When the playing field has diminished so greatly, I'll be able to ask "What is [player]'s role" which leads to an immediate mafia death. That's why you should vote for me. | ||
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Empyrean
17014 Posts
On March 19 2008 05:31 ShaLLoW[baY] wrote: Last game there was no Mafia candidate for Mayor. I can guarantee that this game there's going to be at least one, seeing as how last game if we'd had a mayor we would have taken the win a week earlier. That could be just what the mafia want us to think. If I have a bodyguard protection, the first thing I'm going to ask is whether or not there were any mafia candidates. | ||
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Empyrean
17014 Posts
On March 19 2008 06:52 GeneralStan wrote: I don't trust you Empyrean. Revealing your detective role is foolish and it puts the town in a hard position. The only thing we have to trust is your word, and in this game, nobody's word is worth anything. I think a better goal for a detective would be to not draw attention to himself, opposite what you're doing. I'm not going to vote for you just because you claim to be a detective. There's no verification, and it would be easy for the mafia to throw out such a claim and secure a position of power based on the logic "We don't know, so we should protect him!" 1. I need guaranteed protection for my role to be of most use to the town. 2. Even if I WERE a mafia mayor/pardoner, anything I do against public will will cast suspicion on me anyway. So why not have an experienced player who has an insurmountably important role be an elected officer? | ||
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Empyrean
17014 Posts
You may view my revealing of my detective role to be a sort of ultimatum to get me elected to something. The truth is - it is. You can't risk my premature death to the mafia. If I hadn't ran, I would have gathered clues for a few days and then revealed them. If I had revealed each clue individually and I weren't guaranteed protection, I would be dead the next night. And I KNOW that after last game, I'll be on the mafia hit list - I am not a mafia member, and they'll know to take out the best players first. | ||
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Empyrean
17014 Posts
On March 19 2008 07:01 Mynock wrote: Empyrian, none of the points you made make any sense. Every further post you make just makes you look more and more suspicious. I don't see what kind of tactic it is to always enable double lynches and why it is in town's best interest. I don't see how "bodyguard protection is wasted" once mafia will put multiple targets up. In fact, I don't even get it what you want to say :/ Equally like "A detective mayor/pardoner is the best bet for the town. Even more so than a DT mayor." So a detective mayor is better than a detective mayor? What? 1. DT is the dark templar role, which can kill anyone. 2. Enabling double lynches allows for more mafia deaths - lynches are the only way we can kill mafia. 3. I meant to say paramedic. If I'm not mayor/pardoner and a paramedic protects me, the mafia are smart enough to post two hits on me to ensure my death. | ||
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Empyrean
17014 Posts
Suicide Bomber. | ||
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Empyrean
17014 Posts
On March 19 2008 07:07 GeneralStan wrote: Wait up. I thought we had been using DT to mean Detective Yes, my mistake. I thought we had Dark Templar. We actually have Suicide Bombers. They do the same thing. | ||
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Empyrean
17014 Posts
On March 19 2008 07:05 Mynock wrote: I thought so too, but why is he using "/" then? :/ And what does it have to do with his goal? Is he asking for an "other" detective to come out as well? And all this talk about "a mafia mayor is just as good" is just... No. I thought DT stood for Dark Templar. We don't have those in this game. They're Suicide Bombers. So I meant to say Suicide Bombers. But seriously, read my latest argument post for my candidacy. It spells out exactly why I need to be elected. | ||
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Empyrean
17014 Posts
On March 19 2008 07:08 ShaLLoW[baY] wrote: Oooh alright. I don't see how a SB mayor could be considered good for town in any case, besides the fact that their role is basically nullified. It ensures that the mayor is safe from Suicide Bombers if all the bodyguards die - the paramedics will still probably protect the mayor. | ||
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Empyrean
17014 Posts
On March 19 2008 07:09 Mynock wrote: Dark Templar? The term DT was used before in this thread several times, always denoting detective. What Dark Templar? I'm beginning to think now that Empyrean, if not mafia, is a towny saboteur who wants to cause misunderstanding just for fun cause he only got a plain towny or something. Either way, I don't know what to make of all of this yet, but you sure drew a hell of a lot of attention to yourself. Yes, my mistake, I hadn't realized DT meant detective instead of the suicide bomber role. But it's in the town's best interest to vote me. | ||
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Empyrean
17014 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + Please reconsider your non-vote for me as a mafia candidate. There are a few posts in: http://teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?currentpage=33&topic_id=67925 The above is a must-read. It clearly delineates my platform and decisions. Please reconsider your vote. Also: If I'm mayor, keep in mind that town can always vote to lynch mayor. I will always declare double lynch when the town wants it. If, after all my double lynches are done and my role is therefore pretty much useless, if you still have doubts of my detective role, you can lynch me. | ||
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Empyrean
17014 Posts
On March 19 2008 07:13 Mynock wrote: The suicide bombers can't kill a mayor, it wouldn't make any sense whatsoever if they could. So either you haven't read the rules at all (don't know the roles, don't know the abilities), or you're doing all this deliberately, or you said something you now want to be unsaid. Any case, I think it's now in your best interest to step down from the election and let us decide later  Because either you're not serious enough about the task of a mayor or a mafia. Not a good choice any way. Plus you've now made yourself sound suspicious. 1. I mean after the bodyguards are dead, even if paramedics protect the mayor/pardoner, the suicide bomber can still kill them. 2. I'm acting in the best interest of the town. My (in effect) ultimatum was to force the town to act in the best interest of itself. You can always lynch me if you have doubts. | ||
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