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MTF
United States1739 Posts
I can guess at one of a few scenarios to pass the time. 1: The most paranoid suggestion, that Mafia were waiting for L to get in and tell them who he's on tonight. 2: Crazie and/or Blind were the ringleader(s) and now with them gone, Mafia has become a chicken without a head. 3. They're just taking their time. Personally, number 2 appeals to me the most. : x | ||
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MTF
United States1739 Posts
On April 22 2008 13:52 Bockit wrote: The fact that mafia *haven't sent in a hitlist* makes me think we should be looking at the completely inactive no-vote-no-post people for some mafia. #1 is actually possible, because the medic "who is protecting who" list went out yesterday while L was gone, so far as I know. Not saying it's the most likely, just that it's possible. :p As for the quoted part of your post, I agree. But you also need to match clues, as well. DamageControl as Mr. Black (all credits to Plexa), for instance, is very inactive in the thread, having never posted and never voted (despite posting on other parts of the site) and is personally a strong fit for his clues. Another pretty inactive person I feel strongly about being mafia is ieatkids5 as Mr. White. However, depending on what happens come day, L will either definitely be or definitely not be on the lynching agenda. The medic situation demands it, and the clues + situation so far as I've investigated all point to L being the only unconfirmed medic out of the original 8 (only 7 legit) that claimed the role. Either his innocence is proven tomorrow or we're gunning for him + one other. | ||
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MTF
United States1739 Posts
Things I noticed right off the bat: 1, 5, 1, 5, 2, 5, 2, 4, 5, 5, 3, 5, 3, 5, 2, 5, 2, 2 = 63  Number of str words: 6 strange struggled street struggled strength struggled Known definitions of str: 1 strength WHAT DO THE NUMBERS MEANNNN and, This is the fourth (maybe third) day in which someone heard a strange sound and went to investigate it. And what the hell at Mafia targeting patterns. D: | ||
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United States1739 Posts
On April 23 2008 16:45 Scorch wrote: Eddie is clearly the mafia boss, I believe he has the saboteur role. Too bad we don't have a very strong candidate for Eddie. I think the list reference is significant, especially given that it was Eddie's only real direct clue for the night. The first thought to my mind was Santa sending his elves off to work, but uh...I think we should look at other possibilities. XD Currently looking through the day post again and making notes, will post in a moment. | ||
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MTF
United States1739 Posts
First up, On April 23 2008 15:18 Chuiu wrote: + Show Spoiler + Mr. White was last up that night. He encountered JoxxOr going out for a very early morning jog. He tripped JoxxOr using a wire he hid along the sidewalk and then used it as a choking device. JoxxOr struggled to get free as Mr. White pulled the wire tighter against his throat and suffocated him. It was a cruel death for JoxxOr. It is very relevant to note that Mr. White shows up last, yet again. He's always last and never engaged in any fighting alone before this, only came in to get the finishing blow. Note that the method he uses here to kill JoxxOr is also a lazy, time-consuming way to kill someone. I sincerely believe the clues are stacked against ieatkids5 here to be Mr. White. On April 23 2008 15:18 Chuiu wrote: + Show Spoiler + Mr. Blue was first up, and he was outside the house of fusionsdf. He noticed him in the living room and decided to try to sneak in from the back. All windows locked he tried the back door. When he was left with no other option he decided to kick in the door which alerted fusionsdf. He ran to the back of his house to see Mr. Blue coming in. fusionsdf knew exactly what was going on and grabbed an umbrella that was sitting by the door. He stabbed at Mr. Blue and flailed at him trying to fight him off but Mr. Blue evaded the blows and grabbed hold of the umbrella and yanked it out of fusionsdf's hands. He broke the handle hitting fusionsdf over the head with it and discarded it. fusionsdf dived forward and tackled Mr. Blue to the ground but Mr. Blue shoved him to the side and quickly got up. He grabbed up the umbrella again and stabbed down at fusionsdf. The tip was enough to do severe damage to fusionsdf, and he stabbed through his chest as if it were nothing. Pretty soon fusionsdf was dead from the beating. I think Ulszz is a safe bet for Blue. He is, again, displaying constant incompetence...Though the last bit confuses me. I'm hoping it references a different mafioso. On April 23 2008 15:18 Chuiu wrote: + Show Spoiler + useLess was sitting at home just watching TV when he heard a strange sound from outside his window. He went over to investigate and Mr. Orange jumped right through it and almost knocked useLess down as he flew past him. He quickly turned around and had useLess in a headlock. useLess struggled to free him self and stabbed at Mr. Orange with shards of glass. Mr. Orange broke off and flinched in pain. He grabbed a few shards of glass himself and stabbed through useLess's arms with them. Then to finish him off he made long gashes into useLess and left him to bleed to death. This is the third day (second day in which it was a window) almost this exact phrasing appeared and the fourth time someone was alerted by sounds and then shortly thereafter investigated the source. We know Mr. Orange is connected to sounds. On April 23 2008 15:18 Chuiu wrote: + Show Spoiler + Cottonmouth found Klive5ive walking to his friend house down the street and began his attack. He threw one stone at Klive5ive's back to get his attention, then when he had it he threw another two at him. Klive5ive dodged the next two and started picking up the stones to chuck back at Cottonmouth. Unfortunately Cottonmouth already had some more ready, throwing four more stones at Klive5ive. Klive5ive was severely bruised at this point and he struggled to throw back the stones with much strength. Cottonmouth threw three more stones at Klive5ive's right arm and three at his left arm in effort to disable him. With Klive5ive unable to defend himself Cottonmouth took two last stones and smashed them into Klive5ive's skull. Cottonmouth is still irrefutably connected to numbers. I thought the magic number was 44, but today came up 63, so apparently not. I will be reinspecting this post and other day posts shortly. On April 23 2008 15:18 Chuiu wrote: + Show Spoiler + G.s)NarutO was doing monk things in his monk place with his monk friends when he decided it was late and he wanted to go to sleep. On the way to his room he encountered Mr. Blonde. Mr. Blonde mocked G.s)NarutO for his failed attempts at helping the town and then pulled out a gun to kill him. G.s)NarutO wasn't ready to give up on life completely though and thought he could redeem himself by taking out this man for the town. He charged towards Mr. Blonde and tried to grab his gun but Mr. Blonde was a bit faster to respond and shot him twice in the leg. He finished it by shooting G.s)NarutO in the head and made his escape through a window before getting caught by a horde of monks. This is the second time Mr. Blonde has shot someone charging at him. I still believe this is Ninja4ever. I'm off to go sift through the Cottonmouth numbers again. I was hoping soooo badly that I had him pegged, but... | ||
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MTF
United States1739 Posts
On April 23 2008 17:47 Scorch wrote: How do you get to 63? If I add the explicit numbers (bolded in the quote, I hope I didn't overlook anything), they add up to 57. Is infinity21 confirmed innocent? His name would relate perfectly to a number theme. I added the entire day post like I did with Day 2 and Day 4 to come to 44 on both days. In case you're curious about what Day 2 and Day 4 look like when only adding Cottonmouth's paragraph: Day 2: 2, 1, 1, 4, 3, 1, 3, 3 = 19 Day 4: 1, 4, 5, 6, 1, 4, 1, 4, 3, 1, 4, 1, 4 = 39 Or just 14 if you remove the numbers from New104's name. | ||
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United States1739 Posts
Day 1: + Show Spoiler + 8, 2, 1, 1, 1 = 13 or 15 + few1 few = few1 group = 2 Day 2: + Show Spoiler + grouped = 2 few, few = few2 another, another, another = 3 44 + 2 + 3 + few1 = 49 + few2 Or just paragraph: grouped = 2 another = 1 19 + 2 + 1 = 22 Day 3: + Show Spoiler + 2, 3, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 4, 1, 1 = 22 OR 25 + few1 OR 26 + few1 ones = 1? few = few1 couple = 2 another = 1 Day 4: + Show Spoiler + couple = 2 another, another = 2 44 + 2 + 2 = 48 Or just paragraph: another = 1 39 + 1 = 40 OR 14 + 1 = 15 Day 5: + Show Spoiler + 1, 1, 1 = 3 OR 16 + few2 couple, couple, couple = 6 few, few = few2 another, another, another = 3 group, group = 4 Day 6: + Show Spoiler + 1, 3, 1, 2, 1, 3, 1, 1, 3, 1, 2, 1, 3, 1, 3, 1, 3, 1, 1, 3, 1, 2, 3, 1, 1, 1/2 = 45/46 OR 50/51 several = 2 couple = 2 another = 1 Day 7: + Show Spoiler + several = 2 few = few1 another, another = 2 63 + 2 + 2 + few1 = 67 + few1 Or just paragraph: another = 1 57 + 1 = 58 OR 17 + 1 = 18 I don't know...I just don't know what to make of it. Maybe I'm just interpreting the numbers wrong. I just don't know. For now, I'd say we stick to the plan and lynch L/Ulszz and build up from after the results of that come. It goes without saying that we should still be trying to interpret the clues, but I don't think our course of action needs any changing just yet. | ||
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MTF
United States1739 Posts
On April 23 2008 19:05 qrs wrote: MTF, for God's sake, stop adding up the stupid numbers! It was unconvincing from the start, and it's only getting more and more strained. The only numbers we care about are the weapons Cottonmouth uses. Haven't you noticed that there are always 15? edit: I assume that the two that klive dodged were the same two that Cottonmouth threw and I count the five nails lying on the ground. >.> <.< You're right. I had never noticed that. i'll go sit in the dunce corner now | ||
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United States1739 Posts
On April 23 2008 19:05 qrs wrote: edit: It's not %100 clear. I assume that the two that klive dodged were the same two that Cottonmouth threw and I count the five nails lying on the ground but I don't count the nail that the Wolf took from Cottonmouth. I think you're right to assume that the two Klive dodged are the same two Cottonmouth threw. It makes sense in terms of following events, even though it's a little awkward. Also, not counting the one that the Wolf used would be another good call in my view, as that one isn't used by Cottonmouth himself in any way, whilst the original five are used by Cottonmouth as a sort of trap. In any case, thanks for rattling my cage about the numbers. XD | ||
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United States1739 Posts
On April 24 2008 04:10 qrs wrote: I have a slight objection to lynching L unless we have no other good suspects. Reason: 1) There's still the possibility that he's a medic and 2) even if he isn't, we can still use him as one to a degree. E.g. if we want to keep Plexa alive (or someone else--no one too important, though), just keep telling L to protect him. Either L lets him die and we lynch L then, or he lives. I kinda agree with qrs here. If L is mafia, then mafia will continue avoiding hitting whoever he's on for fear of proving he is. If L isn't mafia, we give him further chance to prove this as fact. Needless to say, I'm not 100% on L being mafia. With different things coming into view, my opinion on this keeps swaying back and forth. I don't feel completely right lynching L at this point. However...None of the candidates I'd suggest to replace him (DamageControl, ieatkids5, Ninja4ever) would take as much/have as strong a case as the majority think. So, I'll keep my vote as it is, though I'm not sure if we'll see two reds or a red and a blue when night comes. | ||
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United States1739 Posts
On April 25 2008 16:50 nemY wrote: -He might already be cleared by "X" list... (damn near impossible to search for the lists etc... hopefully someone can help me out here) . Fusion has them all in his blog; I've stolen the ones with Mafia still in them and put them in mine as well. As for your suspect...It's about as strong as a link as I could tie to Unforgiven. But, I don't really feel that strongly that either of them is a good candidate for Joe. At the moment, I don't believe we really have one. Initiative is appreciated, though. As for the lists... Detective Lists: + Show Spoiler [Mandalor - 58 votes] + 01-ShaLLoW[baY] 02-SoMuchBetter 03-Eti307 05- 06-clazziquai 11-ieatkids5 15- 17-randombum { Pardoner } 21-Alethios 23- 25- 26- 27-nemY 28-ZBiR 30- 31-Energies 34-RtS)Night[Mare 36-Unforgiven_ve 39-Romance_us 42-SonuvBob 43-NatsuTerran 48-qrs 49-GranDim 50-Artanis[Xp] 52-iNfuNdiBuLuM 53-Ace { Mayor } 56-Camlito 58-Lysithea 59-fanatacist 60-SoleSteeler 61- 67-0cz3c 68- 69- 71-GeneralStan 75- 77- 78-BWdero 80- 82-Ninja4ever. 85-ahrara_ 87-Pangolin 88-Naib 89-butidigress 90-~OpZ~ 91-Scorch 92-Jimtudor 94-unsoundlogic 97-suresh0t 98- 103-SpiritoftheTuna 109- 114-zeks 116-Last Romantic 118-Plexa 122- 124- 125- 127- Out of these + Show Spoiler [Showtime! - 8 votes] + * denotes being on the Mandalor list as well. 8-CDRdude 19- 27-*nemY(2) 34-*RtS)Night[Mare(2) 48-*qrs(2) 51-araav(2) 52-*iNfuNdiBuLuM(2) 85-*ahrara_(2) Out of these 7 people, 1 of them is Mafia. Note that those in the Mandalor list as well have a much more significant chance statistically of being Mafia than those who are not. Confirmed Innocents by Lists: + Show Spoiler + 14-imDerek 24-Alventenie 45. smurfingchobo 49. GranDim 54. MTF 90-~OpZ~ 94. unsoundlogic Summation: 13 Mafia are left, 9 (more likely) or 10 of which are in lists. 70 townies left alive, 7 of which are still alive and confirmed townies by lists. Those Not Confirmed Innocent: + Show Spoiler + 1. ShaLLoW[baY] 2. SoMuchBetter 3. Eti307 4. HotZhot 6. clazziquai 7. Dr.Dragoon 8. CDRdude 9. So no fek 10. Fen 11. ieatkids5 12. Wizard 16. Puosu 17. randombum (Pardoner) 21. Alethios 22. infinity21 24. Alventenie 27. nemY 28. ZBiR 29. SiZ.FaNtAsY 31. Energies 33. Amber[LighT] 34. RtS)Night[Mare 35. Vharox 36. Unforgiven_ve 37. fgsvsd 38. KF91 39. Romance_us 40. MasterOfChaos 41. LTT 42. SonuvBob 43. NatsuTerran 44. str 47. Kuja900 48. qrs 50. Artanis[Xp] 51. araav 52. iNfuNdiBuLuM 57. LoStYouRSkiLLS 58. Lysithea 59. fanatacist 60. SoleSteeler 63. HeRoS)Pink 64. KorvspaD 67. 0cz3c 70. Bockit 71. GeneralStan 72. Ziel 73. Hollander 74. Supah 76. jtan 78. BWdero 79. AcrossFiveJulys 82. Ninja4ever. 85. ahrara_ 87. Pangolin 88. Naib 89. butidigress 91. Scorch 92. Jimtudor 93. spoinka 97. suresh0t 99. DamageControL 100. omfghi2u2 101. RowdierBob 103. SpiritoftheTuna 104. AmorVincitOmnia 105. Wysp 106. BuGzlToOnl 107. GrayArea 113. DTDominion 114. zeks 116. Last Romantic 130. rpf Of those suspects we have that are not in the Mandalor list, I only feel strongly about lynching one, being DamageControl. However, lynching him at this stage would be unwise, as killing him only eliminates one of four possible left hiding in a pool of 70+, whereas getting a Mafia or even a townie from the other lists brings our chances of finding another Mafia up more. So, next day phase, I propose the lynching of any of the following: Clazziquai - Has been a suspect for awhile, and would be the third or fourth mafia to tie into randombum if he does turn up red. 0cz3c - Same as above. ieatkids5 - Strongly feel that he is Mr. White. Ninja4ever. - Strongly feel that he is Mr. Blonde. | ||
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MTF
United States1739 Posts
On April 25 2008 18:13 Scorch wrote: Now with L gone, the remaining power roles are probably legit. So far, so good. If ulszz was innocent, we need a new candidate for Mr.Blue. I found the "noob" route quite convincing, but apparently it wasn't. One of the reasons we killed ulszz so soon was because he was on this list of people (1 mafia among them): araav <--- proved innocent by a detective after the "hacking" incident. Could Ace confirm? rts)night[mare infundibilum ahrara qrs nemy Now who of these could be the bad guy? We have some evidence against NemY and NightMare, but nothing strong. Should we concentrate on other suspects for now? If we can come up with someone strong on that list, we should definitely gun for them. Most of them are also on the Mandalor list as well, so taking them out not only gives us more confirmed innocents (many of which are, again, on the Mandalor list), but removes another Mafia from the Mandalor list as well. O, and I'd just like to say...Well played, L. You had me running circles there near the end! I think I was the only person among us cluefinders who wasn't entirely convinced of your guilt anymore after you posted about Light, but hey, getting one of us addled is better than any of the other Mafia ever did. :p | ||
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United States1739 Posts
On April 25 2008 19:21 Camlito wrote: lol i remember someone saying your mr.blue because your song is a RATM song about chainsaws. :D Not quite what I said... >.> But for what it's worth, I really don't think Scorch is mafia. :p As an aside, even though I know he probably wants to murder me (: x) for putting him back out there again, I think nemY is our strongest suspect from the Showtime! list. Until we get stronger clues linking to him or someone else in the list, I think we should focus on those we suspect inside the Mandalor list, though. | ||
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United States1739 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [List] + L: Mayoral vote: Randombum Day 2: Mandalor Day 3: Wurm, no second vote. Day 4: TranceStorm Day 5: Evilmonkey and Siefu Day 6: Nemy (for giggles) Crazie-Penguin: Mayoral Vote: Randombum Day 2: Abstain Day 3: Abstain Day 4: Abstain Day 5: No vote. Day 6: L, died during this vote. BlindAlbino: Mayoral vote: Randombum *switched to near the end* Day 2: str Day 3: str Day 4: araav Day 5: Evilmonkey and Siefu Mandalor: Mayoral vote: Ace Day 2: Abstain, died during this vote. Queasy: Mayoral vote: Randombum *switched to near the end* Day 2: No vote. Day 3: No vote. Day 4: No vote, died this cycle. d.arkive: Mayoral vote: Last Romantic Day 2: No vote. Day 3: Bumatlarge, no second vote. Day 4: No vote. Day 5: Died this cycle. Evilmonkey: Mayoral vote: No vote. Day 2: Ghar Day 3: Ace, and abstain. Day 4: Abstain Day 5: Died this cycle. Known Mafia Total: + Show Spoiler [List] + Mayoral vote: Randombum - 4 Ace - 1 Last Romantic - 1 No vote - 1 Day 2: Abstain or no vote - 4 Mandalor - 1 (9 others for sure) Ghar - 1 str - 1 Day 3: Abstain or no vote - 2 Wurm - 1 Ace - 1 Bumatlarge - 1 str - 1 Day 4: Abstain or no vote - 4 TranceStorm - 1 araav - 1 Day 5: No vote - 2 Evilmonkey/Siefu - 2 Day 6: L - 1 Nemy - 1 Just wanted to renew this with L's info. If Clazzi/0cz3c come up Mafia, I think we need to look realllly hard in Randombum's direction. | ||
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United States1739 Posts
Ninja4ever.: Mayoral vote: Randombum Day 2: Mandalor Day 3: Wurm, no second vote. Day 4: No vote. Day 5: No vote. Day 6: No vote. 0cz3c: Mayoral vote: Randombum Day 2: Mandalor Day 3: Ghar, no second vote. Day 4: No vote. Day 5: No vote. Day 6: No vote. Clazziquai: Mayoral vote: Randombum Day 2: Mandalor Day 3: Wurm, no second vote. Day 4: No vote. Day 5: No vote. Day 6: L ieatkids5: Mayoral vote: No vote. Day 2: Mandalor Day 3: Ghar, no second vote. Day 4: Abstain. Day 5: Evilmonkey and Siefu. Day 6: Crazie-Penguin | ||
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United States1739 Posts
People Not On Mandalor List: + Show Spoiler + HotZhot Dr.Dragoon CDRdude So no fek Fen Wizard imDerek Puosu infinity21 Alventenie SiZ.Fantasy Amber[Light] Vharox fgsvsd KF91 MasterOfChaos LTT str Kuja900 araav More_Minerals LostYourSkills Heros)Pink Korvspad Bockit Ziel Hollander Supah jtan AcrossFiveJulys Spoinka DamageControl omfghi2u2 RowdierBob AmorVincitOmnia Wysp Bugzltoonl GrayArea DTDominion rpf Total: 40 people, 3 or 4 (depending on the Showtime! list results) mafia. So, rough odds of hitting Mafia by list (I hate math, so no dead-on percentages here): Mandalor List: 36 suspects, 9 mafia = 1/4 ratio Showtime! List: 7 suspects, 1 mafia = 1/7 ratio *Personal note: I feel it is unlikely araav or CDRdude are mafia due to all the other suspects also being on the Mandalor list. Taking this into account, I feel the ratio is really 1/5. Others: 40 suspects, 3 or 4 mafia = Close to 1/13 ratio or 1/10 ratio. Edit: Overlooked one person for the Others list. | ||
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MTF
United States1739 Posts
This means, no matter who Mafia kills from now on, they up our chances of finding them systematically.  | ||
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United States1739 Posts
On April 25 2008 21:44 Bockit wrote: Heh.. I hate to burst your bubble but that is something that happens regardless of lists  ie. with mafia killing people, they increase the % of townies that are mafia, because more innocents are dying than mafia. That aside, I'm loving the work you guys are putting in  O, I'm well aware. :p It's just now it's all concentrated into three separate pools, so mafia vs innocents ratio doesn't just rise: it rises in specific places no matter where they strike. | ||
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United States1739 Posts
On April 25 2008 22:07 Scorch wrote: Ha! There we have it! :D Do you guys agree that Eddie, as the mafia's leader, has the saboteur rule? If so, is it worth taking risks in lynching Eddie suspects vs lynching relatively certain vanilla mafia candidates? I'm more inclined to believe that it is random. That may be a wrong, but 'since we don't know for sure, I don't think it'd be a good idea for us to gun for a specific character when we have stronger suspects. | ||
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United States1739 Posts
On April 26 2008 09:05 RtS)Night[Mare wrote: Most mafia have voted for Randombum hmm... oh btw, i cant find the post but from the ghar list i think it was 1/7~ 5 of them are already dead, so its down to nemy and me. Let me find the post Not the Ghar list, but the Showtime! list: 8-CDRdude 27-*nemY 34-*RtS)Night[Mare 48-*qrs 51-araav 52-*iNfuNdiBuLuM 85-*ahrara_ 1 Mafia among those. Those (including you) with stars also appear on the Mandalor list. Ghar list cleared imDerek, Alventenie, and useless. Evilmonkey was the mafia from that. For quick reference to the DT lists: Fusion's blog post. | ||
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