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also
Main Entry: bay
Part of Speech: noun 1
Definition: water
Synonyms: anchorage, arm, back harbor, basin, bayou, bight, cove, estuary, fiord, firth, gulf, harbor, inlet, lagoon, loch, mouth, narrows, sound, strait
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Line 15 : [2,8]Mr. Blonde had braced himself on the ceiling and swooped down from above diving strait into Mynock.
Line 65 : [4,33]An easy kill, thought Queasy, as he pulled out a knife and stabbed Showtime! strait through the heart. But that wasn't the end of it.
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funny how chuiu keeps making that typo huh?
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Line 99 : [2,50]Yogurt was just getting started as he approached Black Mamba and Eddie.
Quote : We are the Swarm, and we are becoming much, much more...for the final metamorphosis has only. Just. Begun. Art.ShaLLoW
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shallow? hmm.... low? ground?
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On April 09 2008 10:56 SpiritoftheTuna wrote:
whats this have to do with anything
army = general stan?
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On April 09 2008 11:13 SpiritoftheTuna wrote:Show nested quote +On April 09 2008 11:09 fusionsdf wrote:On April 09 2008 10:56 SpiritoftheTuna wrote:
whats this have to do with anything army = general stan? Has to be a specific person, yo. Can't just be littered anywhere.
has chuiu confirmed this?
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but thats not how it worked last game
last game, almost every line had a clue of some sort, and some lines had 2 clues.
so how do you explain lines like:
"[4,24]Kau assumed he had ||encroached on the wrong territory|| as he was doing some freelance investigating of his own."
It doesnt mention any of those 20 people, so is it a useless sentence? Why was it included?
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On April 09 2008 11:41 MidnightGladius wrote:
... because it moves the plot? Bajad drovja, you're in no position to be forcing explanations for anything on anyone. The most suspicious person here is you, and trying to analyze Chuiu's thought process is absurd beyond plausibility.
Last game, he used kicks quite frequently, and the town was pointing at chicken (since chickens don't have arms, right?). I think that the personality clues give us a great way to separate what must be a clue and what might be a clue. Let's keep working on referencing vote counts and using solid evidence; deviating from the model that we've all been using so far isn't exactly helpful.
hey
fuck you
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On April 11 2008 01:47 qrs wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2008 01:15 Ace wrote:On April 10 2008 21:04 qrs wrote:
What the hell, Ace! Maybe it's your fault, maybe not, but you've done nothing but screw over the town this game. Don't check out the Ghar clue, make us lynch wurm, take the lynch off the suicide bomber so we lynch a townie instead, apparently leak information (deliberately or not) that leads to Mafia figuring out half the roles! I'm through taking direction.
Plexa's list seems to be the best thing we've got now. Stop bitching. I'm getting tired of your shit, so I'm putting my votes to lynch you and possibly the other guy when I finish reading this thread. Fair enough, but let me just say that until now, I wasn't bitching, just questioning you. I had confidence in you overall. I've lost that confidence. My last post that you quoted--OK, sure, you can call that bitching, but I had some reason to: 1) It's partly your fault Ghar is dead. Sure, not totally your fault, and I voted for him too, and he would have probably been lynched without you, but don't go trying to revise history and pretend you thought he was innocent all along. He was your "suspect #2" until the last minute, when it was too late to change most people's votes. Most of those people voted for him on your direction. 2) It's your fault wurm is dead. OK, you had an excuse--"he wasn't cooperating". If it was only wurm, I would buy that. 3) It's your fault Trancestorm died and wasted a lynch that would have killed d.arkive. You got your facts wrong. 4) Is it your fault that the Mafia seems to know everything? I don't know, but you're the only one who knew all the roles. You admitted a while back that you messed up at least once and that Mandalor got some information out of you. Somehow someone got into some sort of channel, whatever the details are on that. 5) It's because of you that Mandalor is dead: credit where it's due. But that's it. You helped us kill one mafioso and one medic, and wasted one lynch on a sure mafioso. Your information is worthless. And now you're voting to lynch me out of spite. I'm not complaining, mind you: if I get on your nerves that much, go ahead. But it doesn't help the town very much when you declare a double lynch, use your first votes on someone who annoys you and don't use your second votes at all. Do you have two real suspects or do you not? The whole game you've been acting like you hold all the cards, but your bluff has been called. And you're still holding back information. How about this: you get off your high horse and I'll stop bitching. Deal?
I pretty much support qrs in this
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this whole number thing seems like a pretty fucking big leap to make
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On April 11 2008 05:55 useLess wrote:
Seriously, getting all 4 medics in 5 days cant be luck or chance.
13 townies with roles = dead
14 regular townies = dead
First Round:
odds of mafia killing a regular townie: ~78/110 = 71%
odds of mafia killing a roled townie: ~32/110 = 29%
(Ace killed a blue first night T_T):
odds of mafia killing a regular townie: ~78/109 = 72%
odds of mafia killing a roled townie: ~31/109 = 28%
After 2nd day(one of our vigis killed a dt, gj):
odds of mafia killing a regular townie: ~74/103 = 72%
odds of mafia killing a roled townie: ~29/103 = 28%
After 3rd day:
odds of mafia killing a regular townie: ~70/96 = 73%
odds of mafia killing a roled townie: ~26/96 = 27%
After 4th day:
odds of mafia killing a regular townie: ~67/90 = 74%
odds of mafia killing a roled townie: ~23/90 = 25%
After 5th day:
odds of mafia killing a regular townie: ~63/82 = 77%
odds of mafia killing a roled townie: ~19/82 = 23%
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All of these seem like long shots
once again, Im going to suggest general stan is mafia
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One of the resons Im suspecting shallow (among others) is:
List:Mandalor - 37
ShaLLoW[baY]
qrs
clazziquai
ahrara_
Falcynn
ZBiR
unsoundlogic
BWdero
GeneralStan
Scorch
nemY
MidnightGladius
decafchicken
L
suresh0t
randombum
Lysithea
Artanis[Xp]
Ninja4ever.
Naib
SoleSteeler
RtS)Night[Mare
Jimtudor
GranDim
Alethios
0cz3c
Last Romantic
zeks
Unforgiven_ve
Energies
iNfuNdiBuLuM
SoMuchBetter
Camlito
fanatacist
ieatkids5
SonuvBob
Siefu
butidigress
Out of the 37 people that voted to lynch Mandalor, 10 are Mafia
Which means that everyone on that list has a ~27% chance of being mafia
how should we interpret the lines that dont mention mafia members?
and how do we deal with the repeat of unnecessary adjectives, like strait and gauged
obviously they arent bullet proof, but with the patterns we are following right now, we might as well look at everything.
Clues are going to repeat. Therefore, we should look for things that repeat. That has been my method.
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L is the 12th letter
its a stupid clue to follow anyways, cause you might as well just suspect wizard, since he is 12th in the player list.
The reason Im looking at unnecessary words so intensely, is
a) chuiu hasnt confirmed that every word in a sentence containing a mafia member is linked to that mafia member. Obviously, I agree that if it describes mr blonde as tall, then we should link tall to mr blonde. If on the other hand, it says Mr. blonde's victim ran down the alley where he ran into a wall, we shouldnt link running into walls with mr blond.
so how do we know whether running into walls is a clue, or just a story element? We look for it to repeat. If people keep running headfirst into walls over and over again, it becomes fairly obvious that chuiu isnt very imaginative, or that running into walls is a hint. And if that hint isnt always linked to mr blonde, we cant just ignore all the other instances because of an assumption chuiu hasnt confirmed.
2)
Look at Chuiu's wrap up from the first game.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=66251¤tpage=155#3091
You'll see that clues are fucking dense. Like every sentence, sometimes twice a sentence.
for example:
The moon was fresh in the sky this eerily cold evening in the town of Liquidia, and the town quiet, not so much as a mouse stirring.(imDerek)
That sentence didnt mention any mafia member, yet it hid a clue.
Look at:
A mafia had been infesting the quiet town for the past decade taking up positions of importance and gaining trust through misguided joy (to miss the mark) and position.(Empyrean)
ONE Mafia is mentioned in this line, but there are TWO clues. This does not agree with the assumption regarding this game, that in a line mentioning a mafia member, all clues correlate to that specific member.
Look at an example:
As the clock came past 3:00am (eti307) they got started with the deeds.
The 3:00 AM was unnecessary. Why was it included? As a way to include a clue. In the same way, we should look at every single sentence for unnecessary words, and every paragraph for unecessary sentences. When they start to repeat, we have a good chance that its a clue.
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On April 11 2008 09:01 fusionsdf wrote:One of the resons Im suspecting shallow (among others) is: Show nested quote +
List:Mandalor - 37
ShaLLoW[baY]
qrs
clazziquai
ahrara_
Falcynn
ZBiR
unsoundlogic
BWdero
GeneralStan
Scorch
nemY
MidnightGladius
decafchicken
L
suresh0t
randombum
Lysithea
Artanis[Xp]
Ninja4ever.
Naib
SoleSteeler
RtS)Night[Mare
Jimtudor
GranDim
Alethios
0cz3c
Last Romantic
zeks
Unforgiven_ve
Energies
iNfuNdiBuLuM
SoMuchBetter
Camlito
fanatacist
ieatkids5
SonuvBob
Siefu
butidigress
Out of the 37 people that voted to lynch Mandalor, 10 are Mafia
Which means that everyone on that list has a ~27% chance of being mafia
Further, since this was a single lynch, we know that these 10 did not vote for anyone else.
In other words there are 10 mafia members who voted for mandalor, and another 10 that didnt vote for mandalor in that lynching.
3 of the ten that didnt vote for mandalor are dead: mandalor, Queasy, d.arkive
That means that of the 17 mafia remaining, 10 are on that list, and only 7 are not
which means a 10/37 of mafia in the list. 27% chance of mafia
and a 7/63 chance of mafia when not on that list 10% chance of mafia
(63 = #of townies (83) + #of Mafia (17) - #of people on the list(37))
If I made an error, please correct.
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On April 11 2008 09:29 HeRoS)Pink wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2008 09:22 fusionsdf wrote:
L is the 12th letter
its a stupid clue to follow anyways, cause you might as well just suspect wizard, since he is 12th in the player list. If L is mafia how do fuck do you make clues towards him then? No quote, name mean nothing
depends on whether chuiu is familiar with deathnote or not.
If he is, there are a ton of clues he could use.
Or, he could think of roman numerals and say L = 50
or he could talk about L = lambda and relate it to physics or half life (which he has, since we have physicist clues)
or, if we chose to go even more unlikely and exotic:
Used as a shield pattern by the Spartan army; it stood for Lakedaimon, the name of the region.
It could stand for Left.
it could relate to Big L
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_L
or computers
so we cant just assume which clue chuiu will use. We have to look for clues to repeat, and we have to see which suspect has the widest body of clues pointed against them. That way if we misinterpret one clue, we might still correctly interpret another and get a kill.
If you look at the last mafia game, just blindly following lone long-shot clues led the town nowhere.
I'm not saying L isnt mafia (he is on the mandalor list), but we dont have strong enough evidence, and should only go after him if we have no one with stronger clues linked to them.
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hmm
sorry shallow
the potential clues against you goes down a bit
(but youre still on the mandalor list)
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Also, I have some basic notes here:
http://massmirror.com/a9d17696f32ee9c48e9f48e04c361419.html
many of these (maybe even most of these) lead nowhere. I havent edited for probability, and this hasnt been updated since the 8th or 9th.
But it does contain summaries.
It contains
Day 1,2,3,4: Formatted clues from all games, includes [day,line] marking for easier reference and searching.
Remaining names: A list of all the players profiles, image descriptions, quotes birth-dates etc. Also contains synonyms for their names, potential words that could link to them etc, for easier searching and clue linking.
Clues Sorted: A listing of repeated adjectives and other words in the dialogues that could be potential clues. As mentioned before, take it with a grain of salt.
Attack Methods: List of all attack methods. If attacking is a clue, it should be used a lot, and therefore would be easy to see in the list. Note that as of now, this is just a listing, I have not derived clues from it.
Char List: List of all lines directly mentioning individual mafia members. Mr. Blue, Mr. Orange etc.
Match: Contains DT lists trimmed of all dead players. Ignore the extra stuff, they were things I was looking at at the very beginning. {The dialogues mention a "white van" [3,44], and MTF's profile has a picture containing a white van, Pink was a tentative link to Mr. Pink}
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On April 11 2008 10:06 Amber[LighT] wrote:
No one finds it ironic that the suicidebomber killed our last detective?!
almost like taunting us.
At this point I think we have to assume that the mafia has at least a partial list of rolled townies
Especially since they've been ignoring active townies for inactive ones, something that doesnt make sense as part of standard mafia strategy.
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On April 11 2008 10:40 Camlito wrote:Show nested quote +On April 08 2008 16:52 Camlito wrote:
I'd like to emphasize this once more:
We have the following certain information:
EITHER one out of
- imDerek
- Evilmonkey
- Alventenie
is mafia, OR two out of
- Chezinu
- useLess
- aZnvaLiaNce
- fusionsdf
are mafia.
From among the second list, only one of useLess and aZnvaLiaNce can be mafia - not both -, and only one of Chezinu and fusionsdf can be mafia.
At worst, we have a 1/7 chance to get a mafia from among these, a stunning 2/4 at best, so i emphatically suggest we take this path in our investigations. Keep your eyes open for evidence against any of these guys!
My gut feeling says it's either useLess and fusionsdf or Evilmonkey, but it's just that: an unfounded gut feeling.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
We should really look at these lists more, as there is a much better chance.
As i said before, useLess has a high chance of being mafia, as one of the clues i remember referred to a mafia being tossed aside, which indicates he is rather "useless". Ok 3rd time i will post this. Unless im missing something or this is a joke, this should be looked at. See where it sais "chezinu or fusionsdf" can be mafia? CHEZINU IS NOW DEAD! I don't know if people missed this, or i am an idiot, or both - but this should be looked at.
Well I'm not mafia, so obviously you made a mistake.
Can you go over how you got this more clearly, because at best, it seems like either me an chezinu were both mafia, or one of the list of - imDerek
- Evilmonkey
- Alventenie
is mafia, and even then, I'm not sure how its supported.
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On April 11 2008 10:56 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2008 10:23 fusionsdf wrote:On April 11 2008 10:06 Amber[LighT] wrote:
No one finds it ironic that the suicidebomber killed our last detective?! almost like taunting us. At this point I think we have to assume that the mafia has at least a partial list of rolled towniesEspecially since they've been ignoring active townies for inactive ones, something that doesnt make sense as part of standard mafia strategy. How?! This makes no sense to me. We aren't posting these people's names all over the forum, unless I missed that post.
araav + irc
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On April 11 2008 11:22 HeRoS)Pink wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2008 11:20 qrs wrote:On April 11 2008 11:11 fusionsdf wrote:
Can you go over how you got this more clearly, because at best, it seems like either me and chezinu were both mafia, or one of the list of - imDerek
- Evilmonkey
- Alventenie
is mafia Either one of you and Chezinu was Mafia and one of useless/aznvaliance was mafia as well, or one of the other three (going by those lists: I didn't see when they were originally posted). The thing is: whether you are Mafia or not, lynching you (out of the six) gives us the most information. True and you (fusion) really likes number (%) Here's mine for you you have 1/2 chances of being a mafioso which mean 50% which is better than any % you have found yet
no, because you guys are misinterpreting wat scorch said.
Lets start from the beginning
For the Ace and Ghar DT lists, these 3 show up both times and could be potential mafia
imDerek
Evilmonkey
Alventenie
Whereas these occur once (and could potentially be mafia:
Chezinu
useLess
aZnvaLiaNce
fusionsdf
For the record, only chezinu is dead of the last 4. so that part is bullshit.
now lets assign odds.
First look at ghar.
Ghar - 7(now 5) (1 Mafia)
useLess
aZnvaLiaNce
ShadowDrgn
Alventenie
imDerek
TranceStorm
Evilmonkey.
one of those is mafia leaving us with everyone on that list having a 1/5 chance of being mafia.
so:
useLess(1/5G)
aZnvaLiaNce(1/5G)
Alventenie(1/5G)
imDerek(1/5G)
Evilmonkey.(1/5G)
For the Ace List:
Ace - 7(now 4) (1 Mafia)
Chezinu
Alventenie(1/4A)
imDerek(1/4A)
TranceStorm
fusionsdf(1/4A)
~OpZ~
Evilmonkey.(1/4A)
Each person on that list has 1/4 chance.
This leaves us with the following odds:
In descending order:
Alventenie(1/5G)+(1/4A)
imDerek(1/5G)+(1/4A)
Evilmonkey.(1/5G)+(1/4A)
fusionsdf(1/4A)
useLess(1/5G)
aZnvaLiaNce(1/5G)
(1/5) +(1/4) is 9/20, but Im not sure thats the best way to express the relationship.
Just from those two lists, you can see statistically Alventenie, imDerek and Evilmonkey are more likely suspects.
Now, if Alventenie, imDerek or Evilmonkey are mafia, we can confirm everyone else is innocent.
Likewise, if all three of those are innocent, NOTE: ALL THREE, then one of useLess(1/5G)
aZnvaLiaNce(1/5G) is mafia, and I am automatically mafia. But all three of those people would have to be innocent.
Luckily, I am in the unique position where I know I am not mafia, and can therefore add
useLess(1/5G)
aZnvaLiaNce(1/5G)
to my innocent list. (which sucks, cause they were pretty high up on my suspect list.
TL;DR version:
If fusionsdf is mafia, Alventenie(1/5G)+(1/4A), imDerek(1/5G)+(1/4A), Evilmonkey.(1/5G)+(1/4A) are innocent, and one of useLess(1/5G) or aZnvaLiaNce(1/5G) are mafia
If useLess(1/5G) is mafia, Alventenie(1/5G)+(1/4A), imDerek(1/5G)+(1/4A), Evilmonkey.(1/5G)+(1/4A) and aZnvaLiaNce(1/5G) are innocent and fusionsdf(1/4A) is mafia.
If aZnvaLiaNce(1/5G) is mafia, Alventenie(1/5G)+(1/4A), imDerek(1/5G)+(1/4A), Evilmonkey.(1/5G)+(1/4A) and useLess(1/5G) are innocent, fusionsdf(1/4A) is mafia.
If useLess(1/5G), aZnvaLiaNce(1/5G), or Alventenie(1/5G) is mafia, everyone else is innocent.
_________________________
Keep in mind that none of us are in the mandalor list, so the odds of any of us being mafia is about 1/10.
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EPT
