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Scorch
Austria3371 Posts
On April 04 2008 00:29 ~OpZ~ wrote: .....Well...Safe to say arraav is mafia...Lol.... atleast, if any of those people were in the channel when he came on it. i think there would have been a couple more blue kills if that was the case. | ||
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Scorch
Austria3371 Posts
On April 04 2008 14:19 RtS)Night[Mare wrote: im going with plexas rather than scorch's. His analysis is way more detailed and usually has a pretty good aim at hitting mafias that's ok by me. my clue interpretations weren't meant to be in-depth. i had hoped an overlap would occur between my stuff and plexa's, but it didn't. so i will go with plexa's find of d.arkive. i'm not fully convinced, but it looks like a nice plausible link, a connection that chuiu would likely build into the clues. thanks for your work plexa! | ||
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Scorch
Austria3371 Posts
araav = a stupid townie i have no way of knowing if this is true, considering showtime's generally strange behavior. on the other hand, he turned up townie after his death, so he probably wouldn't have a reason to lie. i suspect araav was detective role-checked as was stated in the thread and turned out to be green. furthermore, there aren't any hard clues against araav. so i suggest we leave him alone. note that this PM came long before Showtime's death, so nothing of this is against the rules. | ||
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Scorch
Austria3371 Posts
On April 04 2008 19:45 Plexa wrote: so yea that brings the suspect list to: d.arkive suresh0t Hotzhot SoMuchBetter MTF i would even agree with this exact order  you rock plexa. | ||
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Scorch
Austria3371 Posts
if d.arkive and MTF are innocent, that greatly shortens our suspect list. who would be next in the ranking? suresh0t? i'm really not convinced of his guilt, or anyone else's, for that matter. this sucks. i'm kinda clueless at the moment. seems we got our profiling wrong  as for these 1/6 guys, i don't see much clue evidence against any of them, which doesn't make our task easier either. | ||
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Scorch
Austria3371 Posts
On April 07 2008 15:16 MidnightGladius wrote: Cross-referencing some lists: + Show Spoiler + Confirmed Innocent: MTF SpiritoftheTuna d.arkive Pangolin Plexa ~OpZ~ NatsuTerran Eti307 Empyrean JoxxOr Romance_us BloodyC0bbler Ghar - 7(now 5) (1 Mafia) useLess aZnvaLiaNce ShadowDrgn Alventenie imDerek TranceStorm Evilmonkey. Ace - 7(now 5) (1 Mafia) Chezinu Alventenie imDerek TranceStorm fusionsdf ~OpZ~ Evilmonkey. Here, the following coincide in the two lists: imDerek Evilmonkey Alventenie Whereas these occur once: Chezinu useLess aZnvaLiaNce fusionsdf Of these, the following can easily be count-checked: fusionsdf (only one voting for Ace) Chezinu (only one voting for Ninja4ever) --- aZnvaLiaNce voted for TranceStorm with 13 others, so that's a dead end for now. Abstentions: imDerek Evilmonkey Alventenie useLess Do with this what you will. I'd like to emphasize this once more: We have the following certain information: EITHER one out of - imDerek - Evilmonkey - Alventenie is mafia, OR two out of - Chezinu - useLess - aZnvaLiaNce - fusionsdf are mafia. From among the second list, only one of useLess and aZnvaLiaNce can be mafia - not both -, and only one of Chezinu and fusionsdf can be mafia. At worst, we have a 1/7 chance to get a mafia from among these, a stunning 2/4 at best, so i emphatically suggest we take this path in our investigations. Keep your eyes open for evidence against any of these guys! My gut feeling says it's either useLess and fusionsdf or Evilmonkey, but it's just that: an unfounded gut feeling. | ||
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Scorch
Austria3371 Posts
On April 07 2008 17:15 araav wrote: I wasn't following recently to the developments. Can sb summarize how these lists came? Especially the relation between the two lists... Is the second list the one derived from the Ghar's list that Ace divided? Will try to catch up later. Btw, if you are correct and two of 4 are certain mafia from the second list, then i propose 4 vigis cooperate with Ace and each take one of those... two mafia for two townies is a very good deal indeed. One list is the voters for Ghar on day 2, the second list consists of who voted for Ace on day 3. The list of innocents comes from Ace, i think it was compiled in cooperation with New104 (dead detective). If these premises are correct, then my reasoning should be sound. Remember though that it's either 2/4 or 1/3. So we have one or two mafias among seven suspects. | ||
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Scorch
Austria3371 Posts
On April 05 2008 03:56 (Page 186) Ace wrote: I also got another set of info confirming that these people are all innocent: MTF SpiritoftheTuna d.arkive Pangolin(2) Plexa ~OpZ~ NatsuTerran Eti307 Empyrean JoxxOr Romance_us BloodyC0bbler Maybe I missed it within the depths of this monster thread, but could Ace please explain where this "other set of info" comes from? Is this credible information? If it is not, my whole reasoning crumbles like a house of cards. | ||
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Scorch
Austria3371 Posts
On April 07 2008 23:11 MasterOfChaos wrote: Currently we have 20/110=18% evil among us. So lynching from a group where the DT returned that about 1/5th=20% is mafia does not help. We should devise some plan to make sure the mafia cannot easily adjust the evil percentage on all votegroups to ~20%. One way the achieve this is dictatorship of a confirmed good person. But that course takes out fun for all other townies, because they can no longer vote for themselves. Wrong. We started at 20/130=15.4% mafia. At the moment, 90 townies and 18 mafia are still alive, which gives 18/108=16.7% mafia. Mafia managed to shift the percentage a bit to their advantage, but after the next kill they will have less killing power. The longer the game goes, the more information becomes available. So i think town is on a good way to victory. And the confirmed town-aligned leader would be our mayor, Ace. | ||
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Scorch
Austria3371 Posts
On April 08 2008 01:12 MTF wrote: One of the ways we could approach this is similar to what Ace devised earlier, splitting a vote into two groups. Just take the confirmed innocents and have them all abstain/vote for a specific suspicious person, while the rest are split into several groups to vote for other specific people, then have DT check the lists. In this manner, we know how many active voters = mafia and how many inactive are, and if we get very lucky, we could possibly get a slightly more significant number into a single list to narrow down the percentage of error. The problem with this being that there is only a single detective left. | ||
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Scorch
Austria3371 Posts
confirmed innocents: MTF SpiritoftheTuna d.arkive Pangolin Plexa ~OpZ~ NatsuTerran Eti307 Empyrean JoxxOr Romance_us BloodyC0bbler On April 08 2008 13:45 Ace wrote: TranceStorm - 13 aZnvaLiaNce MTF BloodyC0bbler Meta rpf L bumatlarge smurfingchobo MidnightGladius Lenwe unsoundlogic Hittegods GranDim 1 of these people are Mafia MTF rpf bumatlarge smurfingchobo MidnightGladius unsoundlogic This would be my final list, but I'm mainly looking at bumatlarge because of that other clue from day 3 was it? The "bum" clue. This doesn't match up really. If MTF was confirmed innocent earlier, why is he on the top suspect list? Bumatlarge is probably innocent: the "bum" clue (codename: Sidewinder) was most likely linked to Queasy. See Plexa's post on page 184. All of this leaves us with very uncertain information and a less than average percentage of mafia in this subset (1/11 if you consider MTF and BloodyC0bbler innocent), which isn't helping us much. I suggest we take our investigations in another direction. | ||
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Scorch
Austria3371 Posts
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Scorch
Austria3371 Posts
On April 06 2008 10:41 fusionsdf wrote: I'm the only suspect about to provide lots of clues. Let me go tonight. If what I provide isnt good enough, you can always lynch me next time. Is this the revolutionary, mind-bogglingly important stuff you announced to be going to post towards the end of the night to cleanse yourself from suspicion? Is that all? I'm afraid that's not convincing enough for me by far. I found it questionable already why you would withhold information available to you for later. Let me tell you that you're not out of the question for me at all. | ||
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Scorch
Austria3371 Posts
 Anyone know when day is coming? | ||
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Scorch
Austria3371 Posts
On April 05 2008 03:52 Ace wrote: hmm ok. Chew on this for a while: Empyrean was roleblocked yesterday. I'm roleblocked today. From: New104 Subject: Re: Detective Ability Date: 4/2/08 03:13 1. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: How many mafia voted for Ace on Day 3? old message: MTF SpiritoftheTuna d.arkive Pangolin(2) Plexa ~OpZ~ NatsuTerran Eti307 Empyrean JoxxOr Romance_us BloodyC0bbler are all confirmed innocent Ace is either incompetent at copy-pasting, or telling us bullshit intentionally. New104 was confirmed innocent by his death and had no reason to lie, so there's definitely something fishy going on. It should be apparent by now that too many blues are dying, and maybe, just maybe, Ace is the reason for this. There is a leak of information somewhere 100%. How else would the mafia know who the last detective is and even use their suicide bomber on him? | ||
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Scorch
Austria3371 Posts
On April 10 2008 17:00 Ace wrote: New104 didnt send me that "confirmed Innocent" list. I also thought that it was fishy when I got the list how they were "confirmed". Thanks for pointing that out because if thats the case and the person lied we REALLY got screwed. Then who did? Whoever first brought up this manipulated list is your mafia. | ||
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Scorch
Austria3371 Posts
By the way, why didn't you have one or multiple medics protect your last detective? They would have died to the suicide bomber, so in retrospect it is lucky you didn't, but how could you risk the lone detective's life this easily? | ||
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Scorch
Austria3371 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + bumatlarge - 11 MTF d.arkive Pangolin(2) Plexa fanatacist Eti307(2) Empyrean JoxxOr(2) Romance_us(2) BloodyC0bbler(2) Scorch(2) and this list + Show Spoiler + MTF SpiritoftheTuna d.arkive Pangolin(2) Plexa ~OpZ~ fanatacist NatsuTerran Eti307 Empyrean JoxxOr Romance_us BloodyC0bbler he added SpiritoftheTuna, ~OpZ~ and NatsuTerran, and removed my name from the list. What was his motive to do that? Could it be to protect Tuna, OpZ and Natsu because they are fellow mafias, and avoid protecting me because I am an active townie? So many questions... | ||
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Scorch
Austria3371 Posts
The most obvious reason would be that the list contains mafias which he wanted to protect from lynching by telling the town that they were confirmed innocents. You see it worked. Plexa had figured out d.arkive as mafia (kudos to him!), but we couldn't lynch him once the forged list appeared. All of this wouldn't have been unearthed if d.arkive had not blown himself up, we would have continued to believe it blindly. I understand that Ace is furious about inactives. Had the second real Jack reported to him, there would have been a conflict much earlier and all of this wouldn't have happened. | ||
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Scorch
Austria3371 Posts
On April 10 2008 20:41 Plexa wrote: ROFL SUP MOTHERFUCKERS D.ARKIVE WAS MAFIA OMYGOD IM GOOD? yo town, im on to some serious shit ya know what im saying?! i got hit, TWICE and lived motherfuckers die you mafia scum shit fuck double lynch time to mop the floor ok phat respect to my main man plexa from da hood! he's da smoothest homie y'all! | ||
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