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On March 19 2008 10:01 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2008 09:59 qrs wrote:On March 19 2008 09:32 Kau wrote:On March 19 2008 09:12 Ace wrote:On March 19 2008 09:04 qrs wrote:
Edit: @ Ace: He's saying that every bodyguard would get a PM. Their PM would list Mafia members as bodyguards. Each bodyguard's PM would list (the same) fake bodyguards as their colleagues. None of the bodyguards would know the difference. They'd still be caught. Ok let's look at like this: Scenario 1: There are 7 bodyguards total. 2 Mafia members "fake" PM the BG's with a Mafia Mayor who also sends out the PM. We will know how many BGs are there when the elections are over. The Mafia can't leave 2 of the real Bodyguards off the list because the 2 that didn't get a PM would speak up. They can't just add an extra 2 to the PM because any BG getting a PM from the Mayor with 9 names obviously means the Mayor is clearly not thinking straight and is fishy. Scenario 2: There are 7 bodyguards total. 2 Mafia members "fake" PM the BG's with an Innocent Mayor who also sends out the PM. The PMs from the Mayor don't match those 2 "fake" PMs. Even better, the names of those 2 fakers never even appear in the Mayor's original PM and they just outted themselves as Mafia for a pathetic chance at confusion. How can the Mafia possibly get away with faking any of it without drawing attention to their members? Ace, I don't see how scenario 1 would happen at all. Unless I don't understand how the game works (which is a definite possibility), this is how I see it using your numbers. What everyone knows: There are 7 bodyguards. Only the mayor knows which 7 people are bodyguards. Now, we assume that the mayor is also mafia, so he can coordinate with other mafia members. Since he knows who each bodyguard is, he will send each of the 7 bodyguards a pm. Each pm will have 7 people in it: 6 mafia and 1 bodyguard. Each bodyguard gets pm'ed back by the mafia members (6 different pm's for each bodyguard) and so they believe there are 7 bodyguards. No bodyguards are left out. Each list sent contains 7 people. Each bodyguard recieves 6 confirmation pm's. Or even this (Call the bodyguards A-G and the mafia 1-4): A's PMA,B,C,D,1,2,3 B's PMA,B,C,D,1,2,3 C's PMA,B,C,D,1,2,3 D's PMA,B,C,D,1,2,3 E's PME,F,G,1,2,3,4 F's PME,F,G,1,2,3,4 G's PME,F,G,1,2,3,4 Only 4 mafia used in that scenario. The bodyguards will never know. Until E dies and gets revealed as bodyguard, and A-D go wtf. Yes, if E dies by lynching, but that's a big if.
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On March 19 2008 10:07 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2008 10:04 qrs wrote:On March 19 2008 10:01 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On March 19 2008 09:59 qrs wrote:On March 19 2008 09:32 Kau wrote:On March 19 2008 09:12 Ace wrote:On March 19 2008 09:04 qrs wrote:
Edit: @ Ace: He's saying that every bodyguard would get a PM. Their PM would list Mafia members as bodyguards. Each bodyguard's PM would list (the same) fake bodyguards as their colleagues. None of the bodyguards would know the difference. They'd still be caught. Ok let's look at like this: Scenario 1: There are 7 bodyguards total. 2 Mafia members "fake" PM the BG's with a Mafia Mayor who also sends out the PM. We will know how many BGs are there when the elections are over. The Mafia can't leave 2 of the real Bodyguards off the list because the 2 that didn't get a PM would speak up. They can't just add an extra 2 to the PM because any BG getting a PM from the Mayor with 9 names obviously means the Mayor is clearly not thinking straight and is fishy. Scenario 2: There are 7 bodyguards total. 2 Mafia members "fake" PM the BG's with an Innocent Mayor who also sends out the PM. The PMs from the Mayor don't match those 2 "fake" PMs. Even better, the names of those 2 fakers never even appear in the Mayor's original PM and they just outted themselves as Mafia for a pathetic chance at confusion. How can the Mafia possibly get away with faking any of it without drawing attention to their members? Ace, I don't see how scenario 1 would happen at all. Unless I don't understand how the game works (which is a definite possibility), this is how I see it using your numbers. What everyone knows: There are 7 bodyguards. Only the mayor knows which 7 people are bodyguards. Now, we assume that the mayor is also mafia, so he can coordinate with other mafia members. Since he knows who each bodyguard is, he will send each of the 7 bodyguards a pm. Each pm will have 7 people in it: 6 mafia and 1 bodyguard. Each bodyguard gets pm'ed back by the mafia members (6 different pm's for each bodyguard) and so they believe there are 7 bodyguards. No bodyguards are left out. Each list sent contains 7 people. Each bodyguard recieves 6 confirmation pm's. Or even this (Call the bodyguards A-G and the mafia 1-4): A's PMA,B,C,D,1,2,3 B's PMA,B,C,D,1,2,3 C's PMA,B,C,D,1,2,3 D's PMA,B,C,D,1,2,3 E's PME,F,G,1,2,3,4 F's PME,F,G,1,2,3,4 G's PME,F,G,1,2,3,4 Only 4 mafia used in that scenario. The bodyguards will never know. Until E dies and gets revealed as bodyguard, and A-D go wtf. Yes, if E dies by lynching, but that's a big if. Or gets hit by a vigilante, which isn't a big if.
Sure it is. Why would a vigilante hit a random townie? If anything it's more likely that a vigilante or lynch might pick off one of the 4 mafia, but it's hardly guaranteed.
The detectives are a different story. By sacrificing a detective, we will have definite knowledge, but that goes back to Ghar's plan: all the detectives will need to check the mayor.
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On March 19 2008 09:58 CDRdude wrote:After thinking this through, I have come to the conclusion that there is no flaw. + Show Spoiler [Why there is no flaw] +
Okay. In this example, we will have 7 bodyguards, 1 mayor, 20 mafia, and a bunch of other people who aren't important, we can call them townies.
If the mayor is mafia, and is smart, he will do this:
Send a PM to:
Bodyguard 1
Mafia 1
Mafia 2
.
.
.
Mafia 6
As far as the legitimate bodyguard can tell, this is legit. The mafia will obviously claim to be bodyguards, and Bodyguard 1 won't know better.
Send a PM to:
Bodyguard 2
Mafia 1
Mafia 2
.
.
.
Mafia 6
Again, the real bodyguard can't tell the difference.
PM3:
Mafia 1
Mafia 2
.
.
.
Mafia 6
You should be getting the point by now. If you aren't, you probably don't deserve to be mayor.
The mafia mayor can do this a total of seven times, so that each bodyguard receives a PM with 6 other people on it. Each of those people insist that they are bodyguards, the real bodyguards won't know the difference, and no real bodyguard will be left out. Since no real bodyguard will be left out, nobody will stand out to say that they didn't receive a PM.
This can't last forever, but it can do a lot of damage. One of two things will happen; either a bodyguard will stand out, according to qrs' plan. The other (real) bodyguards will recognize him as not being in their group, and they'll cry out. Confusion ensues, but people will soon realize that the mayor is a mafioso. However, this takes a bit of time, and the mafia gets a good bit of damage in. BUT---once the real situation is discovered, mafia's 1-6 lives are forfeit. Net gain for the town. The mafia could avoid some of this by mixing in more bodyguards to the PM's, but even then it's a loss for the mafia, gain for the town.
The other possibility is if no bodyguard stands out (the mayor ignores qrs' plan) and a fake detective proclaims that the mayor is innocent. That's nice. However, that also assumes that no other detective checked on the mayor, which is unlikely to happen. Soon, the truth will come out, and the bodyguards will realize that the others in the message are fakes, and can be lynched/mad hatted/killed during the night/permabanned or whatever. End result: town is ahead. This will be a bit bloody, but about equal numbers of mafia and town will die here, so that's still +town.
How to avoid all the mess: Basically, qrs' plan is needed. A bodyguard has to step forward. All the real bodyguards will know whether or not he was included in the PM to them, so you don't have to confirm anything. Of course, that bodyguard will probably be gunned down during the night, but whatever, sucks for him. Much as I hate to admit it, I believe my plan is flawed. As per Kau's post, a Mafia can identify himself as a bodyguard, and all the bodyguards will believe he is telling the truth. The Bodyguard plan is not failsafe after all. Unless someone comes up with something new, we will have to waste some detective power as Ghar has been saying.
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Well, yeah; in fact, once we all know the Mayor is innocent, everyone with a role can and should PM him. I had thought that the bodyguard plan was a way to improve on that, but it seems that it is not after all.
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On March 19 2008 10:30 Kau wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2008 10:16 qrs wrote:On March 19 2008 09:58 CDRdude wrote:After thinking this through, I have come to the conclusion that there is no flaw. + Show Spoiler [Why there is no flaw] +
Okay. In this example, we will have 7 bodyguards, 1 mayor, 20 mafia, and a bunch of other people who aren't important, we can call them townies.
If the mayor is mafia, and is smart, he will do this:
Send a PM to:
Bodyguard 1
Mafia 1
Mafia 2
.
.
.
Mafia 6
As far as the legitimate bodyguard can tell, this is legit. The mafia will obviously claim to be bodyguards, and Bodyguard 1 won't know better.
Send a PM to:
Bodyguard 2
Mafia 1
Mafia 2
.
.
.
Mafia 6
Again, the real bodyguard can't tell the difference.
PM3:
Mafia 1
Mafia 2
.
.
.
Mafia 6
You should be getting the point by now. If you aren't, you probably don't deserve to be mayor.
The mafia mayor can do this a total of seven times, so that each bodyguard receives a PM with 6 other people on it. Each of those people insist that they are bodyguards, the real bodyguards won't know the difference, and no real bodyguard will be left out. Since no real bodyguard will be left out, nobody will stand out to say that they didn't receive a PM.
This can't last forever, but it can do a lot of damage. One of two things will happen; either a bodyguard will stand out, according to qrs' plan. The other (real) bodyguards will recognize him as not being in their group, and they'll cry out. Confusion ensues, but people will soon realize that the mayor is a mafioso. However, this takes a bit of time, and the mafia gets a good bit of damage in. BUT---once the real situation is discovered, mafia's 1-6 lives are forfeit. Net gain for the town. The mafia could avoid some of this by mixing in more bodyguards to the PM's, but even then it's a loss for the mafia, gain for the town.
The other possibility is if no bodyguard stands out (the mayor ignores qrs' plan) and a fake detective proclaims that the mayor is innocent. That's nice. However, that also assumes that no other detective checked on the mayor, which is unlikely to happen. Soon, the truth will come out, and the bodyguards will realize that the others in the message are fakes, and can be lynched/mad hatted/killed during the night/permabanned or whatever. End result: town is ahead. This will be a bit bloody, but about equal numbers of mafia and town will die here, so that's still +town.
How to avoid all the mess: Basically, qrs' plan is needed. A bodyguard has to step forward. All the real bodyguards will know whether or not he was included in the PM to them, so you don't have to confirm anything. Of course, that bodyguard will probably be gunned down during the night, but whatever, sucks for him. Much as I hate to admit it, I believe my plan is flawed. As per Kau's post, a Mafia can identify himself as a bodyguard, and all the bodyguards will believe he is telling the truth. The Bodyguard plan is not failsafe after all. Unless someone comes up with something new, we will have to waste some detective power as Ghar has been saying. We would only have to lose one detective. Ace said that if the detectives find the mayor is innocent, then they say nothing. If the mayor is mafia, then the detectives speak out. Now in the case the detectives speak out, we would first have to lynch the detective to see if he's an actual detective or mafia. If he's actual detective then we know the mayor is mafia. If he's mafia then we know the mayor is townie. Hmm... Actually, what happens in the case the mayor is mafia, and a mafia-detective points him out along with real detective. Would we have to lynch both to be sure? When I said detective power, I didn't mean just the one detective, but the other 3 wasting one of their "is-he-mafia" questions. But if there's no better way, it's still definitely worth it.
Re your scenario, presumably the Mafia could buy days for their mayor at the rate of one mafioso per day. I don't see more than one detective speaking up at a time--that would be very dangerous for the real detectives.
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On March 19 2008 10:37 goldenkrnboi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2008 10:35 Falcynn wrote:On March 19 2008 10:34 goldenkrnboi wrote:what if the pardoner is mafia?  Then when he pardons someone a vigilante takes that person out the next night. If the person who got pardoned is mafia, then we lynch the pardoner next day. clever. :O I don't think it's clever at all. Even if the pardoner pardons a mafioso it may have been accidental; on the other hand, if he pardons an honest man, we waste a vigilante's kill, and lose the guy anyway. And a smart mafioso will pardon an honest man, knowing this, and still be able to pardon the next mafioso who is up for trial. Basically, the plan sucks (sorry Falcynn, but it's true).
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Show nested quote +On March 19 2008 07:54 ahrara_ wrote:I actually find a lot of his one liners pretty funny. I really don't.
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On March 19 2008 13:00 ShaLLoW[baY] wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2008 12:59 Ace wrote:On March 19 2008 12:57 ahrara_ wrote:
I see clues as largely a means of supporting a suspicion, not the beginning of one. Like I said, if you've been following the thread, there have been people who've done some weird things that warrant suspicions. Nothing for sure, but plenty of starting points not based on clues. This is something that needs constant repeating. You seriously do remind me of Tracil last game. You just don't say "scum" as every second word.
QFT. You have said some things that made sense, Ace, but you have also sounded fairly patronizing in many of your posts. At the end of the day, you haven't actually contributed that much more than anyone else. (I was taken by the bodyguard idea when you posted it, but Kau pointed out the flaw in it [as a standalone method].)
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On March 20 2008 11:01 Mynock wrote:
Bah, another horrible move by Empyrean (assuming he is what he says he is). I was considering the chance that Emp was a townie, in which case what he was doing would have made some sense. First, he could draw the saboteur's ability away from the real roles, second, he might have wasted some of the mafia's killing power or even a suicide bomber.
Now, if he's indeed a townie he's made another crucial mistake, instead of confusing the mafia (and possibly sacrificing himself) he's confusing the town even further. I disagree. If Empyrean hadn't revealed himself, he might have gotten medic protection. They would all die with him when he was blown up--there's no better use for a suicide bomber.
Meanwhile, not much to say about the mayoral elections except if no detective doesn't reveal Ace as Mafia after a reasonable amount of time, everyone with a role should PM it to Ace. Not just detectives: vigilantes, hatters, jacks, medics. Coordination is important to avoid duplication of efforts.
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On March 20 2008 12:52 Yogurt wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2008 12:35 fusionsdf wrote:
lynching empyrean is the smartest thing to do
at best hes a townie
at worst hes mafia
in either way he creates confusion as long as he is alive you mean the other way around right? at worst he's a townie? unless you meant it that way...! seriously though,i think the lynch would be better used on one of the quieter players, as we learned from last game
At best he's a townie sounds right to me.
But I agree with Yogurt: lynch someone who hasn't said a word. Reason: lying low benefits the Mafia if they can do it. If we lynch the quiet people (when there's no better suspect), we encourage people to speak, which can only be good in the long run.
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On March 20 2008 13:26 Ace wrote:
{88}iNcontroL Reason?
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On March 20 2008 13:29 Ace wrote:
This was the first lynch plan:
If anyone remember that speed game that got messed with the Starcraft themes, I was the one who proposed the "we lynch anyone that doesn't talk". I don't think you can take credit for the idea: Tracil was pushing it from the beginning of the first game. But I agree that it's a good way to lynch when there is very little to go on.
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LOL. Maybe it wasn't such a great plan after all.
On March 20 2008 13:37 CDRdude wrote:
Although if he really was inactive, it isn't a big deal.
There's no way to tell if he really was inactive. The game hadn't really started.
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On March 20 2008 13:41 Kau wrote:
Ah well, it was hit or miss, what can you do...
On March 20 2008 13:45 Queasy wrote:
Guys, he can't really be sure of who is Mafia. Who else could he hit? It's all stabs in the dark.
There is one thing that he could have done: Lynch a known townie (like Empyrean). 100% odds of killing a plain townie vs. ~16% odds of hitting a Mafia and ~20% odds of hitting a special role. Maybe that would have been a better way to play it, in retrospect.
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On March 20 2008 13:45 Meta wrote:
it really doesn't matter, inc was inactive.
You really don't know that.
@Kau, see my post above for who he could have lynched.
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Look, you can't call someone inactive for not posting in the thread the first day. Nothing had happened: virtually no clues, no kills. Not much reason for activity. True he didn't vote, but maybe he didn't care who the mayor was. TBH, it doesn't matter that much who the mayor is as long as he is not Mafia, and he plays remotely reasonably.
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On March 20 2008 13:52 Kau wrote:
qrs
How do we know he isn't lying "again" to save himself?
If he's lying, he's either Mafia, or a very shady towny.
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On March 20 2008 13:53 Meta wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2008 13:49 qrs wrote:On March 20 2008 13:45 Meta wrote:
it really doesn't matter, inc was inactive. You really don't know that.@Kau, see my post above for who he could have lynched. he didn't post, he didn't vote, that means he was going to be kicked from the game anyways. so yes i do know that
Maybe you're right. Chuiu didn't make the rules clear on that point. Chuiu, if you're reading, could you clarify? What do you do if someone misses a vote?
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On March 20 2008 14:01 Showtime! wrote:
I'm...drunk.
I think we have the explanation, guys. Nothing more to talk about.
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Showtime!, have you seen this thread yet? It might be a better locale for your posting spree.
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EPT
