EPTTL Mafia 2 [GG] - Page 128
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Showtime!
Canada2938 Posts
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str
Bulgaria192 Posts
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~OpZ~
United States3652 Posts
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aZnvaLiaNce
United States942 Posts
Ghar List - 7 useLess aZnvaLiaNce ShadowDrgn Alventenie imDerek TranceStorm Evilmonkey If the Mafia knew what they were doing, they wouldn't hit any of these 7 tonight. If they did, say 1 died, then that narrows it down to 1 out of 6, better than 1 in 7. If more from that list die, that narrows down the list and increases odds of cornering scum. I think that Mafia are going to hit those who are on neither list, just so they can keep the odds of being found out as low as possible. | ||
Empyrean
17070 Posts
Before I start, keep in mind that even if someone is mafia, a clue that seems to point at them may point at someone else (like last game, the bowing clue - people thought it pointed to me but it didn't. Any detective investigating that would have found that the clue didn't relate to me. People would probably have some sort of cognitive bias and think that I wasn't mafia). Have each of the top suspects target someone else random completely. It's similar to Ace's plan, but each of the four detectives can ask "how many mafia voted for ____"? and after they find that out, we'll surely know if they're townie or not. Easy way for detectives to use role-check after they've exhausted the initial two. | ||
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Showtime!
Canada2938 Posts
We're guaranteeing the 'actives' safety to a certain extent. | ||
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Empyrean
17070 Posts
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aZnvaLiaNce
United States942 Posts
103 townies left. 19 scum left. Since 7 are on Ghar and 58 are on Mandalor, that leaves 122-65=57 targets left to hit. Because 1 scum is on Ghar and 10 are on Mandalor, that leaves 19-11=8 scum to exclude from those 57. That leaves the mafia with 57-8=49 viable targets tonight. edit: my bad. it's 122, not 103 at start. | ||
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Showtime!
Canada2938 Posts
We're trying to narrow it down more and hell, it's a way to protect actives. Its possible that we have 14 mafia members already figured out if our suspicions are correct. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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aZnvaLiaNce
United States942 Posts
9/49, which equates to a maximum 18.4% of dying tonight. | ||
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Showtime!
Canada2938 Posts
If it's three well shit son I guess all three would die because you would have at least 6 on one person. | ||
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Alventenie
United States2147 Posts
On March 25 2008 05:18 Showtime! wrote: yeah, the odds aren't in their favor. I'm still kind of weirded out by this mafia list thing and how it works exactly. So they are allowed to provide a list of 9 people to target? Lets say they pick 5 or even 3. So if they pick five how does the split work? Does the person at the list pretty much automatically die if they push all their members on them if they have protection? If it's three well shit son I guess all three would die because you would have at least 6 on one person. it goes like this: To: Chuiu From: Mafia leader, Eddie Here is our kill list for tonight: 1. suspect 1 2. suspect 2 3. suspect 3 4. showtime! 5. shallowbay 6. 7. 8. 9. If they send that list, they only use 5 hits, therefore, if they want to hit shallow twice, it should look like this 1. suspect 1 2. suspect 2 3. suspect 3 4. showtime! 5. shallowbay 6. shallowbay 7. 8. 9. and if they really wanted to kill shallow: 1. shallowbay 2. shallowbay 3. shallowbay 4. shallowbay 5. shallowbay 6. shallowbay 7. shallowbay 8. shallowbay 9. shallowbay If they leave any slot blank, they dont kill anyone on the list twice, its just a no kill period. | ||
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ShaLLoW[baY]
Canada12499 Posts
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aZnvaLiaNce
United States942 Posts
On March 25 2008 05:18 Showtime! wrote: yeah, the odds aren't in their favor. I'm still kind of weirded out by this mafia list thing and how it works exactly. So they are allowed to provide a list of 9 people to target? Lets say they pick 5 or even 3. So if they pick five how does the split work? Does the person at the list pretty much automatically die if they push all their members on them if they have protection? If it's three well shit son I guess all three would die because you would have at least 6 on one person. Well, that's the pro and con side to targeting less people for the mafia. Targeting less means less dying and more people left alive to discuss ideas. That's the con. The pro is that the mafia are near guaranteeing someone's death if they assign more hits to a single target. They would usually do this if they knew someone was a certain role and needed to die. The same goes for the converse. The con to targeting more is the increased likelihood of someone being saved by a paramedic. The pro is the options for the mafia are more open and they can see who was saved and paint the target the next night for a nuclear strike. | ||
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Showtime!
Canada2938 Posts
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
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Showtime!
Canada2938 Posts
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ShaLLoW[baY]
Canada12499 Posts
On March 25 2008 05:25 MidnightGladius wrote: Haha, I suspect the day post writeup for that last scenario would be quite epic :D It would probably involve the KGB and thermonuclear weaponry. | ||
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aZnvaLiaNce
United States942 Posts
Shallowbay gets shanked. Comes back to life. Shallowbay gets gunned down and buried. Comes back to life. Shallowbay gets incinerated. Comes back to life. Shallowbay gets his crotch kicked numerous times. Comes back to life. Shallowbay gets decapitated and has his body parts and organs chopped up and shipped to different parts of the world. Somehow comes back to life. Shallowbay gets thrown off the Chrysler building. Does a matrix bounce off the concrete floor, dies, comes back to life. Shallowbay gets a massive heart attack. Comes back to life. Shallowbay has too much fun with female associates of the mafia and dies from drunken sex and fellatio. Comes back to life. The mafia get tired of this resurrection shit, buy some liquid concrete and bury Shallow alive in a hole. The End | ||
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