|
|
|
On March 11 2024 11:00 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Thoughts on Rels: Show nested quote +On March 05 2024 03:17 Rels wrote:Voting ToTheStars, mainly for his last post. On March 04 2024 20:36 ToTheStars wrote:
I don't think it's fair to say that I posted and then disappeared. I am not going to be playing mafia all day long. Don't expect me to post more than like 5-10 posts per 10-20 pages. Also I am not used to games with over 20 players so I'm likely going to put minimal effort until day 4 or 5, or whenever we get to a more manageable number of players (I'd say 11 living players is when I start really thriving).
I'm a he btw (because I saw somebuddy ask).
And I voted trfel because I didn't like their entrance. It felt a bit off tone-wise, like fake maybe. I am not even close to being convinced they are mafia, but where I come from you use votes to apply pressure, which allows you to develop reads better. I don't really have a grasp on the game right now or on the style of mafia you play here, so 90% of what has been posted so far sounds completely irrelevant to anyone's alignment, and tbh I'm kinda grasping at straws to have any sort of read (and still end up with extremely weak reads). But yes, I am gonna vote my weak scumread because if a wagon starts then I could use the way other players engage with it to start having more reads. I hate the last paragraph in particular. So much words to justify this weak vote. It looks like he's afraid to do something that might be suspicious and is asking permission The rest of his filter is also nothing Ok good start here, him calling out hesitancy is good. Show nested quote +On March 05 2024 04:42 Rels wrote:
BTW I also think Vivax' claim was kind of stupid, but now that it's done, he 100% should be the mayor Vivax dumb but should be mayor, pretty common sentiment. Show nested quote +On March 05 2024 04:52 Rels wrote:On March 05 2024 04:44 iamperfection wrote:On March 05 2024 04:43 Rels wrote:On March 05 2024 04:42 iamperfection wrote:
Alright we are getting off track. Humoring vivaxs delusions that he made a good play is a waste of time. You either think he is scum or town for that he did we aren't voting him mayor.
Let's talk about how useless ve has been. He also is running for mayor but his post seems insincere to me. I'm voting him What post? His running for mayor post On March 04 2024 14:43 VisceraEyes wrote:
Good morning everyone. It turns out I'm town for once so I apologize in advance for your own inability to read me and subsequent mislynch of me. I will endeavor to prevent it but I would do that as Mafia too so shrugz0rz.
I am running for mayor on a platform of lynching a lurker of my own choosing that is not subject to towns knowledge or influence.
A vote for VE is a vote for an active town.
Anyone who has posted so far is safe D1, for I am a kind and benevolent Lord. Meh, I don't really see it. Not that I think it's townie, but I don't see the insecurity? Defends VE against Iamp, interesting that he’s saying he doesn’t see the insecurity in VE while he does see the hesitancy in TTS. Show nested quote +On March 05 2024 05:06 Rels wrote:On March 05 2024 04:54 iamperfection wrote:On March 05 2024 04:53 iamperfection wrote:On March 05 2024 04:52 Rels wrote:On March 05 2024 04:44 iamperfection wrote:On March 05 2024 04:43 Rels wrote:On March 05 2024 04:42 iamperfection wrote:
Alright we are getting off track. Humoring vivaxs delusions that he made a good play is a waste of time. You either think he is scum or town for that he did we aren't voting him mayor.
Let's talk about how useless ve has been. He also is running for mayor but his post seems insincere to me. I'm voting him What post? His running for mayor post On March 04 2024 14:43 VisceraEyes wrote:
Good morning everyone. It turns out I'm town for once so I apologize in advance for your own inability to read me and subsequent mislynch of me. I will endeavor to prevent it but I would do that as Mafia too so shrugz0rz.
I am running for mayor on a platform of lynching a lurker of my own choosing that is not subject to towns knowledge or influence.
A vote for VE is a vote for an active town.
Anyone who has posted so far is safe D1, for I am a kind and benevolent Lord. Meh, I don't really see it. Not that I think it's townie, but I don't see the insecurity? insincerity As in he isn't really running for mayor So the fact that he hasn't posted since his first spray of post? It makes him a lurker but I don't understand why it makes him scum Another defense of VE He actually goes back and forth with sandroba and rayn here a bit on VE, the strangest part for me is that he doesn’t want to straight up townread VE, he just “doesn’t understand why VE is scum” He says DMB is the second worse filter after TTS. Show nested quote +On March 05 2024 05:35 Rels wrote:On March 05 2024 05:31 CopCake wrote:On March 05 2024 05:29 Koshi wrote:On March 04 2024 12:40 Trfel wrote:On March 04 2024 12:34 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 04 2024 12:31 Trfel wrote:On March 04 2024 12:28 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 04 2024 12:25 Trfel wrote:On March 04 2024 12:24 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
[quote]
I was making a joke about Vivax saying he was going to autovote Palmar pregame and then immediately changed his mind.
Imo the Mayor KP is town KP, not a oneshot Day vig. It's not about avoiding responsibility it's about giving the town a chance to pull a 2for1 on D1.
Actually I'll cement that point, if I'm not going to win the mayor vote at the end of the day, I'm not going to vote for someone who hasn't also pledged to have the town decide the lynch. I don't think the second wagon is a "town lynch" at all. In fact there's a decent likelihood that the second wagon would be pushed by mafia, no? That's assuming the first lynch is scum which D1 imo is a crap shoot, it's just as likely to be town pushed by mafia and the runner up is the scum, hence the double tap. TL towns are like barely 50% for D1 scum lynches iirc. You're still ignoring the possibility that both are town. My point is, just because "town" votes for something doesn't make it the best play. I'm not saying you have to go for a hero play or something, but just that automatically lynching the top two instead of the top one isn't necessarily a good idea. If both are town then we'll have played a colossally trash D1 and I wouldn't be trusting my own read anymore than I trust any other individual on D1. There's something to be said for wisdom of the crowds. There's almost nothing to be said for wisdom of the crowds, that's the point. It's 16 vs 5, the whole point is that wisdom of the crowds is really ineffective, that's how the game works. The problem with this entire conversation is that Tfrel looks smart and MZ bad. But it is the only thing Tfrel does in this entire timespan. Look smart. But he isn't doing anything that helps town find mafia. I don't like it at all. I think this is the second? comment about it, first being my rayn if I remember correctly. Why the "Trfl looks smart" a bad thing? Last game here, he was on fire and caught all the mafia team. If you feel like that, pressure him to give you a list of players. I can add a third, I thought those Trfel posts were bad too. If I remember right, it was his first posts too, it looked like scum hiding between technicality/setup discussion to participate. I liked his posts going forward though, I think he's town now So Trfel’s initial posts were scummy but now he’s town. It will be interesting to see where Rel’s vote ends up. Calls Koshi very townie Show nested quote +On March 05 2024 12:20 Rels wrote:On March 05 2024 06:29 VisceraEyes wrote:On March 05 2024 06:26 raynpelikoneet wrote:
So VE posted a bunch of nothing... What are you expecting rayn? I think most everyone who's posted looks good, most everyone who hasn't looks bad, and you know who I'd kill as mayor, but not who I'd vote to lynch. I'm not going to try and push a lurker lynch because that's fucking stupid as fuck, so I'm going to wait and see what lynch targets emerge. Right now I'm one of them, and I know I'm town, so if it comes to it I'd probably lynch the other guy but otherwise, I'll vote who I think looks worse of the candidates D1. ERMAGERD AND YOU NEEDED ALL THAT SPELLED OUT RIGHT?! Rayn isn't usually this dense, must be mafia. SEE HAO FUCKING STUPID THAT SOUNDS RAYN!?!?!?? Not impressed at all by all those ve posts. He's probably not even in the bottom 5 activity wise then seem content to call himself a lurker with no opinion "I think most everyone who's posted looks good, most everyone who hasn't looks bad" really? I have a hard time believing this. Can you list who is in that "everyone who's posted looks good" category? Starts to evolve towards a scumread on VE. This is a full 7 hours after the initial discussions he had with rayn and sandroba. He then makes 3 posts in a row to call Palmar scum, I’m gonna hold judgement of this until I’ve reread Palmar as well. Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 08:24 Rels wrote:On March 06 2024 08:22 marvellosity wrote:
Vote Trfel JAT Same question for Trfel, any case? I liked what I saw from him at the beginning of the game Still likes Trfel Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 09:02 Rels wrote:
Finished reading JAT's filter, DP anything what was the thing(s) you saw that was not smart? I thought it was pretty empty for sure, didn't see any red flag though. No red flags on JAT. Finishes the day at Palmar JAT No Trfel But his vote ends on JAT since nobody was on Palmar. At this point the vote was 8-5 for Trfel, only rayn was left on Palmar. I can’t really fault him for this because this was the same reason I ended up on JAT. Next he calls cake really townie Votes Oats Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 12:44 Rels wrote:On March 07 2024 06:11 Koshi wrote:
Rels posts read uninterested. Good case from JAT on Rels. I can't believe everyone is saying that. It's one of the most garbage case I've ever read JAT looks pretty good for the rest of N1 though Calls JAT’s case trash but then says JAT looks good for N1 After catching up with the thread he reinforces that JAT is town. Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 13:08 Rels wrote:VE is anyone person I hate. I agree with rayn, this post looks much more like a fake anger than a genuine one. On March 05 2024 06:29 VisceraEyes wrote:On March 05 2024 06:26 raynpelikoneet wrote:
So VE posted a bunch of nothing... What are you expecting rayn? I think most everyone who's posted looks good, most everyone who hasn't looks bad, and you know who I'd kill as mayor, but not who I'd vote to lynch. I'm not going to try and push a lurker lynch because that's fucking stupid as fuck, so I'm going to wait and see what lynch targets emerge. Right now I'm one of them, and I know I'm town, so if it comes to it I'd probably lynch the other guy but otherwise, I'll vote who I think looks worse of the candidates D1. ERMAGERD AND YOU NEEDED ALL THAT SPELLED OUT RIGHT?! Rayn isn't usually this dense, must be mafia. SEE HAO FUCKING STUPID THAT SOUNDS RAYN!?!?!?? The rest of his filter is a whole lot of nothing. LOL at this too  not strictly AI I don't think but it made me laugh On March 06 2024 04:11 VisceraEyes wrote:
All right well, I guess I'll vote for Koshi as mayor since you guys are cowards and won't vote for me. Vivax claim makes him look super bad to me, pretty sure its NAI but I certainly don't believe the claim, he just wanted to be mayor. I don't think Vivax necessarily mafia, but I generally don't want him to be mayor either.
Koshi is calling for my head indirectly, but I think he town and I think he's a better mayor candidate generally speaking. Maybe posting this will put me at 4 pages and out of the range of his wrath. (makes 9 useless posts in 28 minutes) On March 06 2024 04:39 VisceraEyes wrote:
And I'm officially at 4 pages. Good night sweet prince. Suddenly Rels is agreeing with Rayn about VE’s tone. This is probably the biggest discrepancy in Rel’s filter so far and it’s especially suspect since he starts to come around after VE makes it abundantly clear he’s not going to be helping the town much this game. Several people had keyed in on this early but Rels did that weird soft defense thing where he refused to call VE town but called into question the people who were bringing up valid points. TR’s Marv, DP, CC, Marv again (lol), Koshi, and probably me and JAT Calls cake town again Like Iamp’s post calling VE, TTS, and Palmar scum Not a fan of DMB Once again, scum team of Palmar, TTS, VE, Oats Koshi supertown Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 12:34 Rels wrote:Happy about that one On March 05 2024 03:45 Rels wrote:On March 04 2024 12:28 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 04 2024 12:24 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 04 2024 12:19 Trfel wrote:On March 04 2024 12:16 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 04 2024 12:14 Trfel wrote:On March 04 2024 12:11 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
hbd Trfel,
I'm thinking of running for mayor, we haven't had mayor elections in a looong time (or I haven't played in a game with mayor elections in a long time). May I ask, why should we vote for you as mayor? Well first off I didn't say pregame I'd vote for Palmar and then change my mind once the game started. Secondly I don't think I've ever been a mayor before. Thirdly I pledge to make my personal lynch a town lynch and will select whoever is the second in votes at the end of the day. Seems like an easy way to avoid the responsibility of the results of said lynch, no? And I don't understand why saying pregame that you would vote for Palmar and then changing your mind is a reason we should make you mayor? I was making a joke about Vivax saying he was going to autovote Palmar pregame and then immediately changed his mind. Imo the Mayor KP is town KP, not a oneshot Day vig. It's not about avoiding responsibility it's about giving the town a chance to pull a 2for1 on D1. Actually I'll cement that point, if I'm not going to win the mayor vote at the end of the day, I'm not going to vote for someone who hasn't also pledged to have the town decide the lynch. Wait do you not know that there is only 1 vote for day 1 and that’s for the mayor I know that's a super early post (that's actually the earliest post in my "opened waiting to be revisited" tabs). I didn't like it at the time, and I still don't like it Like, it can originate from 2 situations: town having not read the OP, or scum faking this to appear like a town having not read the OP If it comes from town, I don't understand how you can say something as assertive as "Wait do you not know that there is X" when you should know you. I know I would never write something like this without checking it a few times and making sure I'm right If it comes from scum, I can see it. That just means he played the "I'm clueless" card, and made a mistake by pushing it a little too hard On March 05 2024 03:59 Rels wrote:On March 05 2024 03:47 marvellosity wrote:On March 05 2024 03:45 Rels wrote:On March 04 2024 12:28 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 04 2024 12:24 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 04 2024 12:19 Trfel wrote:On March 04 2024 12:16 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 04 2024 12:14 Trfel wrote:
[quote]May I ask, why should we vote for you as mayor? Well first off I didn't say pregame I'd vote for Palmar and then change my mind once the game started. Secondly I don't think I've ever been a mayor before. Thirdly I pledge to make my personal lynch a town lynch and will select whoever is the second in votes at the end of the day. Seems like an easy way to avoid the responsibility of the results of said lynch, no? And I don't understand why saying pregame that you would vote for Palmar and then changing your mind is a reason we should make you mayor? I was making a joke about Vivax saying he was going to autovote Palmar pregame and then immediately changed his mind. Imo the Mayor KP is town KP, not a oneshot Day vig. It's not about avoiding responsibility it's about giving the town a chance to pull a 2for1 on D1. Actually I'll cement that point, if I'm not going to win the mayor vote at the end of the day, I'm not going to vote for someone who hasn't also pledged to have the town decide the lynch. Wait do you not know that there is only 1 vote for day 1 and that’s for the mayor I know that's a super early post (that's actually the earliest post in my "opened waiting to be revisited" tabs). I didn't like it at the time, and I still don't like it Like, it can originate from 2 situations: town having not read the OP, or scum faking this to appear like a town having not read the OP If it comes from town, I don't understand how you can say something as assertive as "Wait do you not know that there is X" when you should know you. I know I would never write something like this without checking it a few times and making sure I'm right If it comes from scum, I can see it. That just means he played the "I'm clueless" card, and made a mistake by pushing it a little too hard Does the rest of his play change anything? No, what do you think of him? I don't understand his read on CopCake - at 2 points in the thread we had exact opposites view her play. When she was posting tea party fluff, I thought it was pure NAI and he thought it was scummy. When she pushed DP, I thought she was scummy and he thought she looked better. I don't understand why he thought CC looked better Ok now we’re at a post I really hated and pinged me hard. After not really being around and contributing to the conversation about Oat, Rels jumps in a quotes himself to try and show he was scumreading Oats early, no townie feels the need to draw attention to this sort of thing, and if we look back through the rest of Rel’s regular scumreads, it’s only ever been Palmar and VE (after he evolved his read). Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 12:38 Rels wrote:On March 09 2024 12:36 DarthPunk wrote:On March 09 2024 12:34 Rels wrote:Happy about that one On March 05 2024 03:45 Rels wrote:On March 04 2024 12:28 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 04 2024 12:24 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 04 2024 12:19 Trfel wrote:On March 04 2024 12:16 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 04 2024 12:14 Trfel wrote:
[quote]May I ask, why should we vote for you as mayor? Well first off I didn't say pregame I'd vote for Palmar and then change my mind once the game started. Secondly I don't think I've ever been a mayor before. Thirdly I pledge to make my personal lynch a town lynch and will select whoever is the second in votes at the end of the day. Seems like an easy way to avoid the responsibility of the results of said lynch, no? And I don't understand why saying pregame that you would vote for Palmar and then changing your mind is a reason we should make you mayor? I was making a joke about Vivax saying he was going to autovote Palmar pregame and then immediately changed his mind. Imo the Mayor KP is town KP, not a oneshot Day vig. It's not about avoiding responsibility it's about giving the town a chance to pull a 2for1 on D1. Actually I'll cement that point, if I'm not going to win the mayor vote at the end of the day, I'm not going to vote for someone who hasn't also pledged to have the town decide the lynch. Wait do you not know that there is only 1 vote for day 1 and that’s for the mayor I know that's a super early post (that's actually the earliest post in my "opened waiting to be revisited" tabs). I didn't like it at the time, and I still don't like it Like, it can originate from 2 situations: town having not read the OP, or scum faking this to appear like a town having not read the OP If it comes from town, I don't understand how you can say something as assertive as "Wait do you not know that there is X" when you should know you. I know I would never write something like this without checking it a few times and making sure I'm right If it comes from scum, I can see it. That just means he played the "I'm clueless" card, and made a mistake by pushing it a little too hard On March 05 2024 03:59 Rels wrote:On March 05 2024 03:47 marvellosity wrote:On March 05 2024 03:45 Rels wrote:On March 04 2024 12:28 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 04 2024 12:24 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 04 2024 12:19 Trfel wrote:
[quote]Seems like an easy way to avoid the responsibility of the results of said lynch, no?
And I don't understand why saying pregame that you would vote for Palmar and then changing your mind is a reason we should make you mayor? I was making a joke about Vivax saying he was going to autovote Palmar pregame and then immediately changed his mind. Imo the Mayor KP is town KP, not a oneshot Day vig. It's not about avoiding responsibility it's about giving the town a chance to pull a 2for1 on D1. Actually I'll cement that point, if I'm not going to win the mayor vote at the end of the day, I'm not going to vote for someone who hasn't also pledged to have the town decide the lynch. Wait do you not know that there is only 1 vote for day 1 and that’s for the mayor I know that's a super early post (that's actually the earliest post in my "opened waiting to be revisited" tabs). I didn't like it at the time, and I still don't like it Like, it can originate from 2 situations: town having not read the OP, or scum faking this to appear like a town having not read the OP If it comes from town, I don't understand how you can say something as assertive as "Wait do you not know that there is X" when you should know you. I know I would never write something like this without checking it a few times and making sure I'm right If it comes from scum, I can see it. That just means he played the "I'm clueless" card, and made a mistake by pushing it a little too hard Does the rest of his play change anything? No, what do you think of him? I don't understand his read on CopCake - at 2 points in the thread we had exact opposites view her play. When she was posting tea party fluff, I thought it was pure NAI and he thought it was scummy. When she pushed DP, I thought she was scummy and he thought she looked better. I don't understand why he thought CC looked better Yes yes RELS, I remember your early distancing from oats. Thanks for the reminder. LOL Please read me past scum games to see how I treat my teammates If TTS really is mafia, I had an awesome D1 for once Maybe a little self congratulatory TMI here? Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 13:12 Rels wrote:
I'm happy that a scum flipped, and I'm fucking happy one of the first things I found in this game turned out to be right when nobody else saw it Keeps scrambling for that town cred Show nested quote +On March 10 2024 12:43 Rels wrote:Also. I caught TTS D1 (yes I know, I must have been distancing ... lol) Pat yourself on the back again. So in my mind, scum has probably known VE is a lost cause since D2, hence why I still have suspicions about individuals who pushed for VE over Oats yesterday. With that said, the refusal to call VE town while weirdly defending him really sticks out to me in Rel’s filter, and then after it becomes clear lots of people are scumreading VE he jumps right in. He’s also got a lot of townreads which is easy for scum, he’s strangely single tracked on Palmar and VE being scum. Despite not listing TTS or Oats in any of his regular reads lists (he does include Oats in one after Oats got red checked lol), he’s more than happy to jump up and claim credit in the one or two posts where he mentions he finds them suspicious. Lastly, he’s been tunneling Palmar since D1, but today he’s just silently hopped on the VE wagon with not a peep about his biggest scum read… maybe he forgot about that because here: Show nested quote +On March 10 2024 09:46 Rels wrote:On March 09 2024 23:31 marvellosity wrote:On March 09 2024 23:27 iamperfection wrote:On March 09 2024 23:24 marvellosity wrote:
This isn’t a democracy I'll give you one for sure then you give me one. TTS I think these people are town DP Vivax Jealous Palmar Cc Jsl Iamp Koshi Slam Poe is the rest. But tbh I would be shocked if all the above are town. I think we have the exact same list if Jealous is swapped for JAT. Why Jealous? He agrees with Marv that Palmar, the player he’s been going after all game, is town. I think Rels is my missing scum, I feel a lot more comfortable Palmar is town now since aside from VE, Rels hasn’t actually gone after anyone I would consider scum, instead he’s TR’d lots of people and tried to claim credit on the flipped scum so far.
Caught up the part I missed yesterday, and I was actually cased by MZ loool. Apparently totally ignored since I didn't see any quote or reference to it when I was playing yesterday
So the main points are:
"Suddenly Rels is agreeing with Rayn about VE’s tone. This is probably the biggest discrepancy in Rel’s filter so far and it’s especially suspect since he starts to come around after VE makes it abundantly clear he’s not going to be helping the town much this game. "
First, I never "defended" VE like you write in the post. I probed to understand why he was scumread because I didn't understand it.
In the post you're quoting where I scumread it, did you miss that it was after VE came back to the thread and posted a bunch? Why is it weird that my read evolves from null to scum after VE posts things that I find scummy? HOW is it a discrepancy?
Lastly, he’s been tunneling Palmar since D1, but today he’s just silently hopped on the VE wagon with not a peep about his biggest scum read… maybe he forgot about that because here:
He agrees with Marv that Palmar, the player he’s been going after all game, is town.
Already discussed yesterday, how the fuck did you miss those posts if you went through my filter with enough attention to post a quote a bunch of my posts and case me?
On March 11 2024 12:59 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2024 12:57 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 11 2024 12:52 Rels wrote:
Maybe it is as simple as VE / DMB / CC
It doesn't feel right as it's the easiest lynches. Doesn't feel right at all. But maybe it is What happened to your Palmar read dude? Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 13:20 Rels wrote:
@Anyone does scum!Palmar fake 2 dumbtells in a single post? Taking in consideration that people have scumread DMB for dumbtelling Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 13:22 Rels wrote:On March 09 2024 13:21 iamperfection wrote:On March 09 2024 13:20 Rels wrote:
@Anyone does scum!Palmar fake 2 dumbtells in a single post? Taking in consideration that people have scumread DMB for dumbtelling we should ask the palmar expert when he wakes up. Yeah. @marv what do you think? Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 13:23 Rels wrote:On March 09 2024 06:59 Palmar wrote:
So like I'm going to try to sort of organize the game in my head, and I'm going to do it out loud, so you can watch me think. It's a fascinating display.
We probably have about 5 mafia in this game. It could be 4, but then they have very strong roles. Normal balance would suggest 5.
This means I need to start sort of filtering down the people I want to think about.
First up, the people I don't really want to lynch or even consider at all:
DarthPunk for huge filter and repeatedly liking his takes on things.
Vivax because that's the gamble we made when we didn't policy lynch him.
Then there's the weaker town reads that are definitely going to contain some mafia:
Koshi was very good early day 1, but I feel like his impact has been reduced. Still not enough to start calling him mafia
marvellosity - I kinda think he's maybe town, he did come around on me correctly, and I kinda trust sandro's read. So for what it's worth, he goes into the "worry later" pile.
Then there's the people who will be resolved by today
Slam - we lynch slam if Oats flips non-miller town. The frame idea is statistically so unlikely
Oats - we lynch Oats today because despite his efforts, there is like 90% chance of him flipping mafia. He does look and say townie things which is pretty well played, but the odds of any other random player flipping red just happen to be significantly lower
Frame math:
Slam check 1/18 (lynches + himself) players = 5.56% chance he checks Oats
Framer frames 1/14 players (21 - 2 lynches - 5 mafia) = 7.14% chance Oats gets framed
This means there's like... 0.3% chance a framer hits the same target the cop checks (but obviously intiution skews this a lot) it's still the best play to do it like that.
Actually as I write this I realize I have way too few townread, which means I really, really need to get work done. For one reason or another I don't trust any of the people below.
Jealous - lack of investigation from me, little posting
Meapak_Ziphh - lack of investigation from me, I'm masoned with the dude but I'm a terrible mason partner because I think they're stupid. That's mostly on me. I also recall some of his posting being a little meek
justanothertownie - Some really atrocious takes throughout the game. Bullshit associative reads and voting without any kind of analysis.
die_meatbaby - lack of investigation from me. I remember having a different feel from last game, but she still gets stuck on dumb shit.
CopCake - I kinda liked rayn's point during the night. Also she should really think I'm town after our discussion in the night.
JacobStrangelove - This guy is clearly just smart. I liked his posting because it's all pretty reasonable, but I feel like he isn't moving the needle at all this game. Happy sitting back and not getting listened to.
Iamperfection - One particularly terrible take during the night, but maybe he just doesn't know what a policy lynch is. I didn't follow up enough to understand if it was malicious or just kinda stupid.
ToTheStars - lurker
VisceraEyes - Fell off cliff. Where VE?
Rels - Terrible case on me on day 1 that reeked of mafia trying to "contribute". Super clear he wasn't caught up on the game and lacked opinionsþ
The 2 dumbtells are in that post ("4 or 5 mafia", "JSL could be scum even though he claimed") I might be biaised by this but I really like this Palmar post. Feels like a really genuine world view
|
On March 11 2024 13:38 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2024 13:08 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 11 2024 12:59 Rels wrote:On March 11 2024 12:57 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 11 2024 12:52 Rels wrote:
Maybe it is as simple as VE / DMB / CC
It doesn't feel right as it's the easiest lynches. Doesn't feel right at all. But maybe it is What happened to your Palmar read dude? On March 09 2024 13:20 Rels wrote:
@Anyone does scum!Palmar fake 2 dumbtells in a single post? Taking in consideration that people have scumread DMB for dumbtelling On March 09 2024 13:22 Rels wrote:On March 09 2024 13:21 iamperfection wrote:On March 09 2024 13:20 Rels wrote:
@Anyone does scum!Palmar fake 2 dumbtells in a single post? Taking in consideration that people have scumread DMB for dumbtelling we should ask the palmar expert when he wakes up. Yeah. @marv what do you think? On March 09 2024 13:22 Rels wrote:
I don't think he does On March 09 2024 13:23 Rels wrote:On March 09 2024 06:59 Palmar wrote:
So like I'm going to try to sort of organize the game in my head, and I'm going to do it out loud, so you can watch me think. It's a fascinating display.
We probably have about 5 mafia in this game. It could be 4, but then they have very strong roles. Normal balance would suggest 5.
This means I need to start sort of filtering down the people I want to think about.
First up, the people I don't really want to lynch or even consider at all:
DarthPunk for huge filter and repeatedly liking his takes on things.
Vivax because that's the gamble we made when we didn't policy lynch him.
Then there's the weaker town reads that are definitely going to contain some mafia:
Koshi was very good early day 1, but I feel like his impact has been reduced. Still not enough to start calling him mafia
marvellosity - I kinda think he's maybe town, he did come around on me correctly, and I kinda trust sandro's read. So for what it's worth, he goes into the "worry later" pile.
Then there's the people who will be resolved by today
Slam - we lynch slam if Oats flips non-miller town. The frame idea is statistically so unlikely
Oats - we lynch Oats today because despite his efforts, there is like 90% chance of him flipping mafia. He does look and say townie things which is pretty well played, but the odds of any other random player flipping red just happen to be significantly lower
Frame math:
Slam check 1/18 (lynches + himself) players = 5.56% chance he checks Oats
Framer frames 1/14 players (21 - 2 lynches - 5 mafia) = 7.14% chance Oats gets framed
This means there's like... 0.3% chance a framer hits the same target the cop checks (but obviously intiution skews this a lot) it's still the best play to do it like that.
Actually as I write this I realize I have way too few townread, which means I really, really need to get work done. For one reason or another I don't trust any of the people below.
Jealous - lack of investigation from me, little posting
Meapak_Ziphh - lack of investigation from me, I'm masoned with the dude but I'm a terrible mason partner because I think they're stupid. That's mostly on me. I also recall some of his posting being a little meek
justanothertownie - Some really atrocious takes throughout the game. Bullshit associative reads and voting without any kind of analysis.
die_meatbaby - lack of investigation from me. I remember having a different feel from last game, but she still gets stuck on dumb shit.
CopCake - I kinda liked rayn's point during the night. Also she should really think I'm town after our discussion in the night.
JacobStrangelove - This guy is clearly just smart. I liked his posting because it's all pretty reasonable, but I feel like he isn't moving the needle at all this game. Happy sitting back and not getting listened to.
Iamperfection - One particularly terrible take during the night, but maybe he just doesn't know what a policy lynch is. I didn't follow up enough to understand if it was malicious or just kinda stupid.
ToTheStars - lurker
VisceraEyes - Fell off cliff. Where VE?
Rels - Terrible case on me on day 1 that reeked of mafia trying to "contribute". Super clear he wasn't caught up on the game and lacked opinionsþ
The 2 dumbtells are in that post ("4 or 5 mafia", "JSL could be scum even though he claimed") I might be biaised by this but I really like this Palmar post. Feels like a really genuine world view hmmm I'm gonna have to think about this. A decent chunk of my scumread on you right now comes from you seemingly abandoning your Palmar read. That said, DMB is not scum, I'm almost certain of this. If you take her out, who else do you think could be scum? ?????? Why do you scumread me because I seemingly abandoned my Palmar read, when it was in my filter, and not particularly hidden (as seen there, it's 4 posts in a row)? To answer the last bit, just posted my pre-sleep list post, good timing
I thought this was weird yesterday, but how the fuck did you miss it while going through my entire filter and writing an entire case on me?
|
On March 11 2024 15:49 CopCake wrote:
So think about it a little bit Jacob.
If town DP didnt get blocked by mafia is because
1.- two of the three candidates were town
I already countered this yesterday, DP said he was going to shoot most of the game yesterday, not just TTS / you / DMB.
WHY THE FUCK did you go over 50 pages DP, WE CANT FILTER YOU ALL ANYMORE
On March 09 2024 12:13 DarthPunk wrote:
yeah slam, wifom only at this point.
Im shooting palmar btw.
On March 09 2024 12:20 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 12:17 iamperfection wrote:
so wait a sec they cant stop us from getting an action off they would have to choose assuming they have a roleblock.
Vivax jails either Jacob or Slam. If they dont roleblock vivax they risk not getting a kill off on one of them. If they do roleblock dp gets a shot off. Which is why I am shooting DMB.
On March 09 2024 12:39 DarthPunk wrote:
I guess I have to shoot Rels tonight.
On March 09 2024 13:03 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 12:56 Vivax wrote:
But he could be mafia with VE in which case it‘d have been townier to just switch around instead of autopilot.
Knowing VE‘s alignment would help a lot. Which is why I am shooting VE.
That's the ones I found just quickly searching for "shoot". Interestingly I didn't find posts on TTS (this one he said for sure at some point, maybe during D2 instead of N2) and you.
|
By your logic, Palmar VE and I are also town then right?
|
On March 11 2024 15:56 DarthPunk wrote:
oop, I hit 10000 posts. :D
Congratz
|
On March 11 2024 18:48 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2024 13:02 Rels wrote:
Fuck already midnight. I thought I was only going to play for 30 minutes. I have 2 interviews tomorrow morning ... wish me luck! Good luck friend. Hope you get both, and they have to tripple your salary outbidding the other company.
Thanks :D
One went well, the other got rescheduled to tomorrow, I literally have 4 interviews tomorrow now lol
And it's the opposite, I got a dream position right now working for a big tech company, until now it was OK to work from Montréal, but with the stupid return to office policies, I would have to move to a hub like Vancouver or Toronto or Seattle to continue like I am today, or I'll get laid off ... but I don't want to move, so I'm interviewing the few teams that are on Montréal ... not a lot of options so it's make or break!
|
On March 11 2024 19:43 VisceraEyes wrote:
First up we have Koshi. At first I had a townread on him for his activity, in spite of saying dumb things like Oats is town. D2 he drops off considerably though, and reacts really strangely to the Oats check. Like, there's confirmation bias, and there's trying desperately to save a mafia teammate. I think we witnessed the second one on Koshi's D2. The smart play there is to lynch the check. Koshi is a smart player. That's what cops are for, to check people you think you trust to find out if you can or not. Not just that, but his TR wasn't even that strong on Oats D1, he kept saying he had to go "reread" Oats to "see if he locked in on someone" or some meta bullshit. He never did that, but continued to scream about not lynching him, the mafia Framer. In that light, the fact that he's both "too confused about the state of the game to make any real reads" and "So certain of our path forward that I don't even have to try anymore" rings massive alarm bells for me.
Verdict: Mafia Koshi
Next up is.....omg it's our esteemed mayor. Please let there be less than 20 pages.
I don't agree that it makes Koshi scum, but maybe not a bad post? Quickly checked the facts at least and it seems to be true
|
On March 12 2024 09:42 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2024 09:41 Rels wrote:On March 11 2024 18:48 Koshi wrote:On March 11 2024 13:02 Rels wrote:
Fuck already midnight. I thought I was only going to play for 30 minutes. I have 2 interviews tomorrow morning ... wish me luck! Good luck friend. Hope you get both, and they have to tripple your salary outbidding the other company. Thanks :D One went well, the other got rescheduled to tomorrow, I literally have 4 interviews tomorrow now lol And it's the opposite, I got a dream position right now working for a big tech company, until now it was OK to work from Montréal, but with the stupid return to office policies, I would have to move to a hub like Vancouver or Toronto or Seattle to continue like I am today, or I'll get laid off ... but I don't want to move, so I'm interviewing the few teams that are on Montréal ... not a lot of options so it's make or break! RTO is fucking cancer. #foreverremote
100%
|
On March 11 2024 20:09 VisceraEyes wrote:
Our mayor Vivax is Town from what I can tell. He's super duper active, he correctly called out Oats D1 which, jeez. If you're not only running for mayor inviting scrutiny upon yourself but you're also calling out your Framer and calling for his death D1 AS MAFIA, Vivax you've got bigger balls than I have ever given you credit for.
The switch to me on D2 feels like a townie reaction to a too easy lynch because of a check. Exacerbated by older heads saying that I'm mafia in the bargain. I don't think it's telling in Vivax case - he doesn't like, say Oats is town or give reasons for wanting to lynch me. I could do without the misogyny, but that doesn't make him mafia.
So cool. The protected guy is town. Yipee. I guess. On to.....*sigh*...Palmar. At least it won't take long?
????
Why do you need to towncase Vivax?
Looks like a "putting some effort into an useless conclusion" post
|
On March 11 2024 20:52 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2024 20:12 Palmar wrote:On March 06 2024 06:47 Palmar wrote:
Btw the wagon on me is so bad.
marv is probably just mafia
jat has literally no reason to think I am, and is probably mafia anyway.
Trfel has literally no reason to think I am
Slam is slam
Koshi has thought I am mafia every game for 10+ years. I think he just enjoys murdering me.
The only standout is DP Wow, the wagon on me on day 1 was so pure :D Wasn't it just? Palmar is almost certainly mafia here. Marv thought so. Rayn thought so. They're both dead to night kills. Palmar as town reviles playing with me, so him wanting me more active in this game bodes poorly for all of you given I'm going out first. He doesn't have fun WITH me, he has fun USING me, and he's salty I haven't given him ammo to do so until now. He voted for me instead of Oats even though he had a town read on me and a scum read on Oats D1. Pretty damning in hindsight, considering Oats was red checked AND was the framer. His filter is all over the place as you'd expect, but there are some nuggets in there. There's this one post locking koshi as town for calling the framer town on D1. As if that's not something mafia are EXPECTED to do. I'm sure he has some reasonable sounding logic, like towncasing is as bad as mafcasing because it invites scrutiny regardless. But he conveniently refuses to factor in that A) it's Koshi and B) we're all big boys and girls and stuff here. There's also a tendency to do mafia-ish things in his posts that I probably just dislike in general...but he does stuff like subtly fearmonger and appeal to peoples' insecurities. I've seen him do it as town but it's his bread and butter as mafia. Palmar is probably Mafia Palmar, and frankly he's probably going to win. I'm actually stopping here for now guys, I have tabs open with MZ iamp and CopCake filters, I had intended to do them tonight - I had actually intended for these all to be in one post - but when I found 2 mafia in Koshi/Palmar I figured the last one can wait. Especially given one of those people is the counterwagon to me and at this point I actually just WANT CopCake to be mafia so I can say the mafia tried to lynch me all game and couldn't - so I'll probably start with CC tomorrow. I HOPE she's mafia but that would be maybe too easy from my perspective.
Regardless of your Palmar case, I find it very, very weird that you didn't start with CopCake. That's obviously the logical play. I don't know if it's AI but it's bothering me
There's also a tendency to do mafia-ish things in his posts that I probably just dislike in general...but he does stuff like subtly fearmonger and appeal to peoples' insecurities. I've seen him do it as town but it's his bread and butter as mafia.
So it does it as both alignements, yet you use it as a point to make him scum?
Apart from that, very generic case, the only specific example is this:
There's this one post locking koshi as town for calling the framer town on D1. As if that's not something mafia are EXPECTED to do. I'm sure he has some reasonable sounding logic, like towncasing is as bad as mafcasing because it invites scrutiny regardless. But he conveniently refuses to factor in that A) it's Koshi and B) we're all big boys and girls and stuff here.
Very meh. Maybe it's worst in reality, but the way you describe it doesn't make anyone scum. Without you quoting the post, it's hard to know.
On March 09 2024 16:35 Palmar wrote:
So Koshi is probably lock town for his towncase on Oats on day 1.
Guy made a towncase on mafia and attacked me for maybe thinking Oats is scum.
This post right? Seems like a reasonable read to me? Lock town might be a touch strong.
Looking for Koshi I see he expanded his reasonning later:
On March 12 2024 00:00 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2024 23:53 die_meatbaby wrote:On March 11 2024 23:49 Palmar wrote:On March 11 2024 23:35 die_meatbaby wrote:On March 11 2024 23:12 iamperfection wrote:
Palamr ignored the shit show of last night because he is mafia. So I support this. Plus added benefit that marv is wrong which is always nice. I mean I would not be mad to vote Palmar. It is always a good choice, but either of his aligment he don´t give a fuck about anything and is ignoring stuff and players as well as I saw in the last game Good analysis. I only read and talk about stuff I'm interested in. Speculation on what mafia does is not one of those things. I can't control mafia and I can't know the setup, so I literally do not care about any discussion about it. Don´t worry right know I prefer to look in the filters from Koshi and Reels at the moment. I'm sceptical about their aligment more then yours. Koshi is in the tinfoil pile, you should probably not waste much time looking into him because we're not lynching him today. He is unpredictable, and he thinks I'm town so maybe he's mafia. But, koshi could not have known I would pussy out of calling Oats mafia, and there was absolutely some serious push towards Oats getting lynched on day 1. This includes Vivax the mayor talking about it. The chances of Koshi making that towncase on Oats as a fellow mafia member is pretty low. It exists, and if anyone is ballsy enough to pull it off it might actually be koshi, but as I stated, we're not at the state of the game where we need to be lynching people who have objective reasons to call them town, and Koshi is in that category.
|
Oh but looking at timestamps, the latest post is after VE's case.
But, meh case from VE. It hinges on ONE post on Palmar that I don't think makes Palmar anything, and the rest is generic fluff.
|
On March 12 2024 00:31 CopCake wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2024 00:29 die_meatbaby wrote:On March 12 2024 00:27 CopCake wrote:
I wouldnt mind Palmar lynch or Rels lynch, mostly because it would give ME perspectives.
But cake stop with your scenarios.
Cant forgive Tfrel got lynched out of thin air. But you have do see that Trfl was really good in his last Town game and almost knew the hole mafia team at an early start. I think people fear him as mafia when he plays that good as town. Exactly, that is what I think. There was probs mafia about to be lynched and someone pulled the shenanigans of lynch him with JAT. Idr who was the counterwagon of Palmar, need to recheck but TFREL NEVER FORGET
Hey cake, it was Palmar => JAT > Trfel => maybe shennannies on DMB but never serious => Trfel
With that info, who is the scum that was about to be lynched in your mind?
|
Mm, I think I like the Cop / DMB back & forth that begins [here](https://tl.net/forum/mafia/621454-a-classy-game-of-mafia?page=332#6630), and finally end up with a new read from Cake ...
On March 12 2024 01:12 CopCake wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2024 00:58 Vivax wrote:
MZ + Oats votes make a lot of sense if they're both on mafia JAT and teamed with him.
PR votes I think is the opposite, Oats voted JAT when JAT was not in danger then changed to DMB when JAT was not in danger and then back to JAT when HE was in danger. Like, he could just fuck off and leave the vote on DMB. It was hard for JAT to catch up Tfrel.
|
Yeah I like it from CopCake perspective ...
DMB doesn't do much though, and the only analysis she does might actualyl be partner indicate:
On March 12 2024 00:47 die_meatbaby wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2024 00:39 CopCake wrote:The vote count is not the one vivax posted but post number 67, which is this On March 06 2024 04:57 Grackaroni wrote:
Day One Vote Count
Mayor
Vivax (10): raynpelikoneet, Rels, Vivax, DarthPunk, die_meatbaby, Koshi, Alakaslam, JacobStrangelove, Meapak_Ziphh, marvellosity, Palmar
raynpelikoneet (2): JacobStrangelove, Alakaslam, raynpelikoneet, Iamperfection, raynpelikoneet
Oatsmaster (1): Oatsmaster
Koshi (1): Koshi, justanothertownie
Not Voting (7): sandroba, Trfel, Jealous, CopCake, Hapahauli, ToTheStars, VisceraEyes
With 10 votes, Vivax is currently set to be elected!
Lynch
Palmar (6) : marvellosity, justanothertownie, Alakaslam, sandroba, DarthPunk, Koshi, raynpelikoneet
ToTheStars (3): Rels, CopCake, JacobStrangelove, Vivax
Justanothertownie (2): sandroba, Palmar
VisceraEyes (1): iamperfection, sandroba, Vivax, Oatsmaster
Oatsmaster (1) : Vivax, VisceraEyes, DarthPunk
JacobStrangelove (1): CopCake, DarthPunk
CopCake (1): Oatsmaster, DarthPunk, Meapak_Ziphh
die_meatbaby (1): Oatsmaster
DarthPunk (0) : raynpelikoneet
iamperfection (0): DarthPunk
Koshi (0) : JacobStrangelove, Oatsmaster, sandroba
raynpelikoneet (0) : DarthPunk
Alakaslam (0) Oatsmaster, CopCake
Vivax (0): Alakaslam
Not Voting(5): Trfel, Jealous, die_meatbaby, Hapahauli, ToTheStars
With 6 votes, Palmar is currently set to be lynched!
Let me know if you see any votes misplaced
The deadline is Wednesday, Mar 06 3:00am GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in
tothestars was obv. mafia but the problem is when we would have lynched him we don´t get any information about his teammates. I liked it better that dp just shoot him instead of wasting time for a lynch. Voting on TTS as mafia would be safe but really voting on a teammate for the first lynch? When there is the chance to lynch a Town out? I doubt that
TTS was not "obv mafia" at the end of D1, he was a regular lurker with one somewhat scummy post. Remembering him as obv mafia EOD1 might mean DMB is a partner
|
On March 12 2024 01:48 CopCake wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2024 01:42 Palmar wrote:On March 12 2024 01:28 CopCake wrote:
##vote: palmar Do I dare ask why? Votes. You were saved. Oatmaster never dared to put a single vote on you to even look “townier” and most of the votes you had were made by town (rayn, etc)
Another new analysis there ...
I didn't like CopCake yesterday when she was martyring and basically flooding the thread with nonsense that had nothing to do with reads, but I like this
|
On March 12 2024 03:22 VisceraEyes wrote:
Like why would I have ever posted anything when this is what it gets? Literally ignored. I already fucking knew, I shouldn't have even tried. I'm fucking exhausted, work is going to be fucking awful tonight, but I tried. I'm a fucking idiot.
Sorry if you're town, I know the feeling. You should have started at CopCake alignement and go from there ...
|
On March 12 2024 10:26 DarthPunk wrote:
What’s your conclusion Rels? Are we mislynching here?
Is Cake leading? If yes, maybe. I hate the OMGUS and the first part of D3, but she always comes back to the thread, and this time she came back with actual new thoughts ...
Will finish catching up and see
|
But from where I am in my catching up, VE should 100% be the lynch. The only post I didn't dislike was the Koshi case, but apart from that, textbook scum. Come back with a few big posts at the best time to not waste effort, during the last half of the day. Write cases that sound good but doesn't stand up to scrutiny. Martyr and GTFO
|
JAT had the exact same thoughts I have on the 3 VE cases. Probably warrants some townpoints
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
