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On December 16 2023 05:39 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I can work with you. I don't honestly expect anyone to have an opinion on what i say, nor do i care about anyone having an opinion what i say. I am probably lynched tomorrow no matter what, i don't care. I am just here to figure out who is mafia, for my own amusement. People believe my reads or they don't.
I can't work with you. I don't want to talk about this with you, especially with you. I have already said what i have to say, and i think you're mafia. If you have something else to talk about please do. My reads are not set in stone, and even if they were i am not gonna claim it until the end of night phase.
Wait which one is it? lol
Did you forget to delete one?
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On December 16 2023 05:40 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 05:38 Holyflare wrote:2) The problem i have here is that if youre telling the truth i would expect town!HF to get into discussion with me about it, that's what this is pretty much about. Since what i know from you, that's what you usually do. This is a quote from our last game we played together btw. You were mafia, I was town. So it's not like I would actually get into a discussion with you any more than I would there. Why are you saying I should have behaved differently? which game is that?
chezinu streak or something idk when that was
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We can investigate palmar together at some point tomorrow if I'm alive. I'm on holiday until after christmas now so can possibly invest more time.
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I don't think my power as a player comes from arguing anymore. It just comes from continuously pivoting my stances on people and working together until we get enough information drawn out of as many people as we can to make better conclusions so we'll work on that tomorrow too.
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On December 16 2023 06:25 sandroba wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 05:18 Holyflare wrote:On December 16 2023 04:58 sandroba wrote:
HF main points for being mafia for me are:
- trying to bury me while it seemed like I would be a viable lynch
- Arguing against the Chezinu lynch even though he thought he was 99% mafia due to "no info" bullshit
- Not really trying to get anyone lynched d2 pretty much just following palmar marv koshi
Points for being town:
- He seems to be trying to put in time to investigate stuff, that Trfel analysis looks genuine to me
- He gives off a vibe of self-assured innocence that comes off in his posts.
- Flat out calling Chezinu 99% mafia and refusing to vote for him is very balsy for mafia I stand by still thinking you were mafia. I think you only became "findable" after the palmar situation and even then I'm still hesitant about it because I don't like your directioning/positioning with what you're saying currently or what you were saying just after the chez stuff. In my mind you should be tripling down on palmar and trfel but you're doing some weird thing where you're keeping me at arm's reach still and not really comitting to trying to find me or investigating any of my stances or mindset. I didn't argue against the chez lynch to any meaningful extent other than one post saying I think it was shit and I will triple down and still say I think it was a shit choice even if I knew he was very likely to be mafia. I don't advocate for the stance of always getting mafia being good, I think even a lynch on a townie that people had taken stances on would have just been as good, perhaps better. Although he was the rber so more fortuitous for us in the long run. I believe information and forcing people to do things that is uncharacteristic for them or puts them in positions they don't want to be in is a much better situation. I'm not that invested in this game to care what happens if the direction is fine with what I'm thinking at the time. If the direction goes wayward I'll interject with some of my own work (see the trfel stuff when I thought you were looking a bit better) but if I don't have to be in the game I'll try not to be. Look everyone I think is mafia has done some townie shit at some point. Palmar may very well be mafia, and the more other people like you rayn and koshi post the more I think he is due to POE. He has done some shady shit, I don't think he tried to figure out my alignment at all in the QT. Let me do a recap: I was asking him to take a stance on a player I suspect (Trfel) to see if I can get a read from his reasoning. He did not engage, just stated Trfel is town/ I also mentioned Chez to him which I said was giving me mafia tells, to which he responded that he doesn't read trolls. He then asked me to claim blue, to which I asked why he wants to know, then he started to say things like he was mafia. A bit later he said just kidding okay, not really claiming mafia, which I found dumb and suspicious. He wanted to talk about things like pretend I'm mafia, who do we kill, etc, just a lot of trolling. He never asked me for a read or an explanation of a read. After skipping some troll topics he proposed, we started talking about the DP NK. Why does DP get NK'ed. Assuming everyone is town - removing slam, chez, trfel, dmb which prob are never killed n1 - rayn hf koshi didn't do enough, I was widely suspected. That leaves him marv, dp - which means dp is the most dangerous out of the 3 and probably him and marv are just being wrong and stupid if town. He says mafia is prob afraid to shoot him he is protected. I ask him why he was reading me scum to begin with. No answer. I remind him on the slam comment he pointed out that I noticed and dismissed as null. But then pressed him on that he made a serious post later admitting he also had no real read on Slam. So why did he think I'm scum. He reverts to trolling saying that slam bit is 100% reason to base a read on. A bit more conversation going nowhere. Says he has to go, thinks I'm pretty townie in there and we talk more later, mybe about dmb and rayn. I ask him to comment on my collection of scummy posts by Trfel in the thread, he goes back to mafia claiming, saying he has an agenda. Next day when I do catch him online he reverted back to asking me to claim blue. At this point I see what he posts in thread and just am done with entertaining the thought he might be town, say he is just mafia - ask if marv is his partner. Later on after I see trfel slam and marv vote Chezinu against my wagon, I share with him my new reads, ask him to explain his DMB town read, but he is not there. To his credit he does give me an explanation about how if she was mafia why would she not buddy up to him, instead of being pissed off, after all he was lynching vivax, why she is pissed off that we were lynching vivax. Seems flimsy to me, but after that DMB starts posting some paranoid things after the flip and I share with him I've come around to the dmb town read. But he is never there again. He never asks me anything anymore. At this point he should be like 95% sure I'm town or if he was just super stubborn at the very least think it's a strong possibility. He does not engage anymore, doesn't ask me shit. Is never online when I am even when he is posting in the thread.
This is a good post and I'll lynch palmar for it.
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On December 16 2023 06:25 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 06:21 Koshi wrote:On December 16 2023 06:09 raynpelikoneet wrote:
My vote on Chezinu. Let's say you did come in uninformed in the thread. You didnt realise thet this sandroba lynch was breaking up. can you please tell me how sandroba lynch was breaking up when i came to the thread?
This is also why I scum read you and think your bait didn't work and why I tried to bait you btw. The vote was very clearly breaking up on sandro and going to chez and you came in imo at a time for prime credit after saying nothing much about chez, ignoring what other people were saying about chez and just essentially appearing. While doing this you were throwing around more meaty accusations on me and still just letting me sit around without engaging anyone else about it even though the whole premise for the chez wagon to start was slam quoting my post and asking to go there.
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On December 16 2023 06:36 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 06:25 raynpelikoneet wrote:On December 16 2023 06:21 Koshi wrote:On December 16 2023 06:09 raynpelikoneet wrote:
My vote on Chezinu. Let's say you did come in uninformed in the thread. You didnt realise thet this sandroba lynch was breaking up. can you please tell me how sandroba lynch was breaking up when i came to the thread? This is also why I scum read you and think your bait didn't work and why I tried to bait you btw. The vote was very clearly breaking up on sandro and going to chez and you came in imo at a time for prime credit after saying nothing much about chez, ignoring what other people were saying about chez and just essentially appearing. While doing this you were throwing around more meaty accusations on me and still just letting me sit around without engaging anyone else about it even though the whole premise for the chez wagon to start was slam quoting my post and asking to go there.
I'm starting to think you may be town in some part of my brain at the very least. Sandro's post v good.
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On December 16 2023 06:37 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 06:36 Holyflare wrote:
This is also why I scum read you and think your bait didn't work and why I tried to bait you btw. The vote was very clearly breaking up on sandro and going to chez Okay, explain me how this was the sentiment.
If you weren't in the thread you don't understand the vibe it's just easy to tell. Sandro looked so much better after the mason thing that his wagon dying was a foregone conclusion. Thus the question of who is next is in the air. There is not a single consensus scum read or proper push floating around and I've mentioned that I think chez is 100% mafia at some point.
Marv is kinda aimless and defending palmar. Other lhf like dmb look fine, trfel just got cased as 50/50 and then started to look better too. Slam enters and gives people direction, a bunch of people (that weren't even voting chez at the time either) start agreeing he's an ok wagon to default to. Many people town read many other people.
It just is what it is.
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On December 16 2023 06:36 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 06:26 Koshi wrote:
I played bad d1. But your d2 was relative bad. The Chez vote was good. But I still dont get why you did that. Because clearly you had sandroba as mafia as well. So why not sheep marv. Why do i sheep marv? I genuinely read the thread, commented on anything that was not boring. Many people were acting like Chezinu is mafia, but were voting for sandroba. I thought both of them are mafia. I decided to see what happens if i vote for Chezinu (namely what HF does). Everyone starts acting weird (namely you and HF). I decide well if it causes this much shit here, i'm gonna keep my vote here.Show nested quote +And your vote on Sandroba d1 is also sus. But also there it might be coincidence I guess. Why is that?
Have you considered that we thought your vote was weird because it was random and uncharacteristic lol? Helpful to know that this occurred at least.
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On December 16 2023 06:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 06:41 Holyflare wrote:On December 16 2023 06:37 raynpelikoneet wrote:On December 16 2023 06:36 Holyflare wrote:
This is also why I scum read you and think your bait didn't work and why I tried to bait you btw. The vote was very clearly breaking up on sandro and going to chez Okay, explain me how this was the sentiment. If you weren't in the thread you don't understand the vibe it's just easy to tell. Sandro looked so much better after the mason thing that his wagon dying was a foregone conclusion. Thus the question of who is next is in the air. There is not a single consensus scum read or proper push floating around and I've mentioned that I think chez is 100% mafia at some point. Who was going to switch? You were not. Koshi was not (until marv did) Marv was not (until the beating stuff happened, which noone had any idea about at the time) Palmar was not (until everyone else had switched WHO WAS GOING TO SWITCH? Chezinu was going to vote for sandroba 100% of the time. If i had dropped my vote on sandroba, i think 95% of the time sandroba gets lynched instead of Chezinu.
I probably would have switched at some point tbh just didn't see the need to because I thought it was just going to happen anyway without me and if you hadn't have voted there I may well have been convinced by slam at that point too.
Koshi was already mentioning it before you voted.
Marv was already thinking sandro looked better before that imo.
Palmar is likely mafia so irrelevant.
It's not the WHO that's important here, it's the sentiment and what direction you think the thread is going to go. If you think that day ends on sandro getting lynched before slam started the chez stuff I'd think you were wrong.
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It doesn't have to be towards chezinu it was more importantly towards not sandroba and chezinu is the easiest already mentioned alternative.
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Am I misremembering something? I don't think Rayn's vote was before the marv stuff was it?
Regardless I don't think sandro gets lynched there either way before that still. You can believe it or not it's my opinion.
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On December 16 2023 07:14 sandroba wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 07:10 Holyflare wrote:
Am I misremembering something? I don't think Rayn's vote was before the marv stuff was it?
Regardless I don't think sandro gets lynched there either way before that still. You can believe it or not it's my opinion. You are. At the point Rayn voted I still thought I would likely be the lynch. Only after when marv switched I thought there was hope.
You are going by pure vote analysis and I think that's wrong. You were correct I misremembered the timings though. I just reread like page 92 (or wherever palmar talks about what you talked about in your chat) to just when rayn voted and it's extremely obvious chez is going to die and not you imo. You were on fire smashing marv and palmar and none of them engaged on revealing more elaborated points on you.
You trfel slam and then even koshi said chez was a good lynch. Koshi was warming up to it. Rayn's entry is really fucking weird still imo and very jarring given what's going on because he just interjects himself right at the part where it becomes an inevitability to me.
His explanation of it being a reaction test kind of weakly adds up though so it is what it is. Felt really disgusting at the time though.
Palmar and marv look really bad in these interactions, although I get more of a feeling that marv was just baited by a mafia palmar than maliciousness.
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On December 16 2023 07:20 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 07:10 Holyflare wrote:
Regardless I don't think sandro gets lynched there either way before that still. You can believe it or not it's my opinion. You have to elaborate on this. Because if i had put my vote on sandroba (5-3), and Chezinu (obviously) votes for sandroba (now let's assume i am mafia and Chezinu is mafia), the vote is (6-3). Maybe you can say that sandroba is not getting lynched, but that doesn't happen without an event that we don't know about, like marv's. Which is why i said i think marv's vote might have solved the game for me.  Because this line of arguing is just simply not reasonable. You're basically telling i voted for Chezinu because i knew Chezinu is gonna get lynched before an event that i have no way of knowing of happens.
I am telling you that because I can see the events unfolding yes. I really don't think anyone reading should have been going for sandro at that point in time and it's insanely obvious to me where sentiment was going. Marv's event is completely irrelevant to the situation imo.
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On December 16 2023 07:22 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 07:17 sandroba wrote:On December 16 2023 07:13 raynpelikoneet wrote:On December 16 2023 07:12 sandroba wrote:On December 16 2023 06:55 raynpelikoneet wrote:On December 16 2023 06:50 sandroba wrote:
My point here is that Rayn did not help thread sentiment go against Chezinu, which detracts a bit from the fact that he did contribute to the lynch. you realize i thought you are mafia as well? Yes, I'm not saying you are auto mafia for doing it - just saying the way you did it does not make you auto town, even if there is a plausible narrative here so why are you saying i am mafia then? The reasons I thought you were mafia was due to not commenting on anything relevant D2, coupled with the throw away vote on Chezinu. But I've come around since then based on recent posting tbh. Like after the flip I was like 90% on you, now I'm like 25% Why is it a throw away vote? Also i don't really see why i have to comment on all the shit that's being going on, when it was basically same stuff D1, just different conclusions (on Trfel -- like people decided Trfel is now scummy like in spot of Vivax, nothing else changed pretty much)?
Sandro getting masoned, palmar explaining the mason logs and sandro disputing it and arguing with palmar and marv for pages and then you saying sandro was still mafia with chez and me seemed extremely ludicrous. You should have commented on the mason stuff because that's how the game works, you talk about your opinion on information so we make more informed decisions. I found it really unbelievable you said the team was sandro/hf/chez when I pointed out that chez was like 100% mafia, highlighted the connection about sandro and chez and you made no reference to that and ignored koshi and slam when they mentioned it to you.
It seemed heavily like you were bussing the soon to be chez wagon.
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On December 16 2023 07:29 sandroba wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 07:25 Holyflare wrote:On December 16 2023 07:14 sandroba wrote:On December 16 2023 07:10 Holyflare wrote:
Am I misremembering something? I don't think Rayn's vote was before the marv stuff was it?
Regardless I don't think sandro gets lynched there either way before that still. You can believe it or not it's my opinion. You are. At the point Rayn voted I still thought I would likely be the lynch. Only after when marv switched I thought there was hope. You are going by pure vote analysis and I think that's wrong. You were correct I misremembered the timings though. I just reread like page 92 (or wherever palmar talks about what you talked about in your chat) to just when rayn voted and it's extremely obvious chez is going to die and not you imo. You were on fire smashing marv and palmar and none of them engaged on revealing more elaborated points on you.You trfel slam and then even koshi said chez was a good lynch. Koshi was warming up to it. Rayn's entry is really fucking weird still imo and very jarring given what's going on because he just interjects himself right at the part where it becomes an inevitability to me. His explanation of it being a reaction test kind of weakly adds up though so it is what it is. Felt really disgusting at the time though. Palmar and marv look really bad in these interactions, although I get more of a feeling that marv was just baited by a mafia palmar than maliciousness. I'm not going by pure vote analysis at all. Didn't feel like that at all since nobody was saying that in the thread. Maybe for you reading the thread it felt like that, but people were not voicing that opinion at that point.
I think you should reread it because they are. Trfel koshi you, the last thing I said was chez 100% mafia, slam pushing it. The momentum is all there.
Who is pushing for your lynch? Marv, palmar and that's it. Palmar is discredited by multiple people and not many were listening to marv.
It might not have felt like it to you because you were in the weeds duking it out with them but it's very obvious on a reread as a third party to the discussion.
All these people are voicing that opinion on chez btw.
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On December 15 2023 00:16 Koshi wrote:@Slam: Show nested quote +On December 12 2023 02:37 Holyflare wrote:On December 11 2023 05:27 Chezinu wrote:On December 11 2023 05:25 raynpelikoneet wrote:On December 11 2023 05:07 sandroba wrote:
I understand your point about feigning certainty as a strategy but fail to see how that makes me suspicious still. Are you saying that although my post had good observations and moved the game in a pro-town manner because I didn't do it like you would have done it is suspicious? Not sure I buy that completely from your perspective.
Definitely not something to hinge a whole narrative on and derive reads from. Especially when your own post is full of tentative language and demonstrations of uncertainty regarding palmar's posts. I think you should start raising suspicions, or at least having reads, in case you're town, but then again i don't know if i need to tell you this. People suspect you, if you're town, get over it, stop defending and start producing something of substance (because people suspect you as you don't produce anything of substance -- right or wrong) If you need help sandroba, you can read my posts to learn how to have people not think you post nothing of substance. + Show Spoiler + Noting this post because it's the first one where Chez breaks character and it's rayn talking about Sandroba doing nothing and deflecting. What do you make of this point HF made? Is it something mafia Chez would do?
On December 15 2023 01:01 Koshi wrote:
Damn. I am all up for that tbh.
On December 15 2023 01:01 Koshi wrote:
Marv should we switch? There is no way this is mafia slam and sandroba doing this right?
On December 15 2023 01:03 Koshi wrote:
I can't believe slam is mafia.
Chez is liability.
Sandroba/Chez still possible.
Sandroba is posting so extra day isnt that bad.
If this is someone looking like they're going to stay on sandroba then we can end this convo here lol
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Palmar in the sandro exchange and chez stuff is very obvious mafia. Gg.
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On December 16 2023 07:41 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 07:37 Holyflare wrote:On December 15 2023 00:16 Koshi wrote:@Slam: On December 12 2023 02:37 Holyflare wrote:On December 11 2023 05:27 Chezinu wrote:On December 11 2023 05:25 raynpelikoneet wrote:On December 11 2023 05:07 sandroba wrote:
I understand your point about feigning certainty as a strategy but fail to see how that makes me suspicious still. Are you saying that although my post had good observations and moved the game in a pro-town manner because I didn't do it like you would have done it is suspicious? Not sure I buy that completely from your perspective.
Definitely not something to hinge a whole narrative on and derive reads from. Especially when your own post is full of tentative language and demonstrations of uncertainty regarding palmar's posts. I think you should start raising suspicions, or at least having reads, in case you're town, but then again i don't know if i need to tell you this. People suspect you, if you're town, get over it, stop defending and start producing something of substance (because people suspect you as you don't produce anything of substance -- right or wrong) If you need help sandroba, you can read my posts to learn how to have people not think you post nothing of substance. + Show Spoiler + Noting this post because it's the first one where Chez breaks character and it's rayn talking about Sandroba doing nothing and deflecting. What do you make of this point HF made? Is it something mafia Chez would do? On December 15 2023 01:01 Koshi wrote:
Damn. I am all up for that tbh. On December 15 2023 01:01 Koshi wrote:
Marv should we switch? There is no way this is mafia slam and sandroba doing this right? On December 15 2023 01:03 Koshi wrote:
I can't believe slam is mafia.
Chez is liability.
Sandroba/Chez still possible.
Sandroba is posting so extra day isnt that bad. If this is someone looking like they're going to stay on sandroba then we can end this convo here lol It definitely looked like that after i voted, until marv voted.
Ya but this convo isn't about that it's about what it looked like when you placed your vote and the mindset of people at the time. Can you see why my thought process is that your vote looks like a bus?
Can you see why koshi thinks your vote is weird etc. All very clear to me.
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Yeah whether it's true or not is irrelevant to me I don't care about what could have been. I just want the situation to make sense from people's perspectives and discover who had a townie thought process and I think we've reached that.
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EPT
