On May 29 2023 10:36 raynpelikoneet wrote:I've been sleeping all day, i just got up for a minute to write this before eon.
I think it's fairly certain TTT is town. Like before meapak flipped and after the flip for some time i thought the way he approached the game from mafia perspective, but at some point his his view changes to that VE is easily most likely to be mafia, and at that point there is no real pressure yet on VE. It doesn't make any sense for mafia to invent a story where marv is pushing a lynch on town meapak just to change his focus completely to his scumbuddy AFTER he has PROOF that his original assessment could be right (meapak flip).
I also think Slam and Chezinu are town. Now that we know meapak has flipped town, there is pretty much no real reason for slam to praise marv all D1 then vote on Vivax instead of Meapak. Like it's a contradiction he would notice if he was mafia, there is no harm voting Meapak over Vivax as both are town, it just doesn't make much sense to me as mafia. Chezinu has been
quite on point on his suspects, i really liked his suspects list D2, and i think VE voting for Chezinu is a point on his favor as well. Like i think VE could vote for his scumbuddy in a situation like that, but i don't think that's the case here. He had other options as well, and it really make it look worse for VE rather than make a good play by distancing.
mebaby is hard to crack but after all i see her townie. VE could technically hard-clear her, but i still doubt in case they were both mafia. Maybe 75% chance that alone makes her town. Another thing is that afer inventing the story on ray + Vivax being mafia, mebaby had all the reasons as mafia to go after me, and while noone would believe her most likely, noone would also blame her for it most likely. Instead of doing that, she invents ANOTHER story of how Vivax got lynched, throws in her scumbuddy VE, votes for him, and says VE is 10000% mafia. I don't buy it she does that as mafia.
So while i know i could be wrong here somewhere, that's still what i think at the moment. And that leaves me with LS / DP / marv.
LS looks definitely worst in the bunch. Disconnected with the game, and while i have nothing really that says "this guy is definitely scum", i have also nothing that says this guy is definitely town. Everyone else looks just more town, that's it. I think you should always lynch LS the next day, it's just the most likely correct answer by poe and his disconnect with the game. Low volume poster or not, his posts still feel like no intention to solve.
DP and marv.. Ugh... Like every time i am in the thread with marv we're seeing things pretty similarly. That's usually town tell. I consider myself a decent player and if another decent player agrees with me then we're usually doing right things, and even if he is mafia we're still doing right things. That is early on. Lately there have been things that bug me. All the questions i asked yesterday i think are worth asking. I am not completely sure they make him look mafia but they are still worth asking. Maybe the biggest thing is i don't get how he can feel so strongly about DP being mafia, even before VE flip. It doesn't make sense to me, nor does the AFTER flip reaction when i have just kinda lead a lynch on mafia VE:
Show nested quote +On May 28 2023 14:19 marvellosity wrote:
Great result with VE.
If rayn is thinking about pushing me now maybe i am wrong about DP and I have been mega duped by rayn. Maybe that’s why Koshi died N1.
Because I look at the number of posts rayn hard-reads me as town and now this? I don’t understand it.
Like.... rayn leads a lynch on mafia VE, DP is big suspect for marv, suddenly after flip i am mafia just because i have doubts about him as i
clearly can't figure out all mafia as Onegu also flips. It's just... idk, maybe he is just a bit butthurt i am calling him mafia, i really don't know because it doesn't look natural. Another thing is i think DP was way more natural to flip his read on VE. To me that felt like "i thought he was town but shiiiitt.. this is good you nailed it dude!", which is really natural when i read an ACTUAL good case.
I also know marv has had doubts on VE a long time, but never really acted on them. I don't think there was a lot of time left when i made my case on VE, i DO have a feeling marv SHOULD see those things before, and acted on them. Hell he wrote good stuff like "VE lynches Vivax because D1 is the only day when he can lynch town Vivax", really good shit. But not realising VE is mafia earlier when all the evidence is there? Weird.
I think DP has looked more natural in his read progression. If LS is mafia, i don't know why DP has to have him as soft buss all game? Like DP can bus for sure, but i don't know what's it worth? If LS is town why wasn't LS up for lynch by mafia DP on D2? With LS wagon distraction there it could be possible, even LIKELY that there is a town lynch instead of VE lynch, and noone could even blame DP for that because he has been playing towards it whole game. Hell even if LS is mafia lynching inactive mafia member in team instead of hyper active VE is a win in comparison to situation now.
I don't know. PoE says LS is mafia and after that occam's razor says one of marv or DP is mafia. Don't get me wrong, just if i analyse both of them individually they look town, but there HAS TO BE third mafia in this game. Gun to head i would say marv over DP, but i am really not sure.
That's the vomit in case i die.