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On May 26 2023 17:36 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2023 17:33 TankTopTiger wrote:
@DP & VE
You mentioned the vig shot was bad for town, can you spell that out for me? I see it differently. In a work where mz was scum we would have a lot more information and progress in the game, the wagon was close and a scum! Mz would have probably revealed some truths about alignments. As it stands, mafia didn’t care about the lynch and therefore we have very Little information based on voting patterns
Yes, that’s why I think we need to look at who really cared about their vote - ie did not know alignments. Did Chez, Onegu, LS?
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On May 26 2023 19:26 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2023 17:36 DarthPunk wrote:On May 26 2023 17:33 TankTopTiger wrote:
@DP & VE
You mentioned the vig shot was bad for town, can you spell that out for me? I see it differently. In a work where mz was scum we would have a lot more information and progress in the game, the wagon was close and a scum! Mz would have probably revealed some truths about alignments. As it stands, mafia didn’t care about the lynch and therefore we have very Little information based on voting patterns Yes, that’s why I think we need to look at who really cared about their vote - ie did not know alignments. Did Chez, Onegu, LS?
I have some thoughts, but I want to write a big post.
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marv why do you think Koshi was shot?
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On May 26 2023 11:41 LightningStrike wrote:First off what. Second of all the fuck. Not only we lynched the doctor but the Vig got shot and shot the other wagon to the doctor lynch and they were town w t f.......... Koshi said: Show nested quote +On May 25 2023 14:36 Koshi wrote:
That MZ wagon was all my townreads. Includes Vivax. So amazing what game the people on Vivax wagon were reading.
Anyway. I dont believe in full mafia wagons so 1 of my townreads must be wrong. But that's ok.
Planning on lynching the entire Vivax wagon first. Which means that he thinks there is at least 1 or more mafia on the Vivax wagon Look at here: Show nested quote +On May 25 2023 18:28 Koshi wrote:On May 25 2023 18:26 DarthPunk wrote:On May 25 2023 18:20 Koshi wrote:On May 25 2023 18:16 marvellosity wrote:
Don’t disagree with most of your targets though, not sure if I am happy or sad about that. Super sad. Those reads now while we (the not baddies and his townreads) were there before the lynch. And the rayn blaming on the bottom is the icing on the glittered shitcake. What are your reads then? And I feel ok criticising rayn, because after the flip apparently it was super obvious that Vivax was town, but if that was the case there was an opportunity for that to not happen, and he didn't try and stop me, but I don't think it was as clear that he was super town as you have implied post flip. I understand the salt, but I also think you are engaged in results orientated thinking and I feel bad enough about the mis lynch already. Do you think I am town or mafia? If I am mafia then please make a case and try and lynch me, if you think I am town, can you please try and engage with me in a way that is productive. I think you could be mafia. I will never make a case on you. I will yell all future days that I think you are mafia. I will never respect any read you make this game. I think this is why Koshi was shot he thinks DP is a mafia on the Vivax wagon (which he did think 2 or all 3 mafia there)
This post felt really bad btw, the fake outrage at the top. I get that if he was invested in the game but I read his whole filter in 2 minutes and its clearly not the case.
This screams disingenuous to me.
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On May 26 2023 19:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:
marv why do you think Koshi was shot?
I have nothing but wifom.
Maybe koshi’s emotions N1 he exaggerated to make himself a less likely NK. Although that doesn’t matter so much if you’re a 1 shot vig.
My own paranoia/ego thinks they might be removing my supporters so I can be a legit target.
But simple answer is he was right about something you and I weren’t + they thought they were never going to mislynch him
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On May 26 2023 19:56 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2023 11:41 LightningStrike wrote:First off what. Second of all the fuck. Not only we lynched the doctor but the Vig got shot and shot the other wagon to the doctor lynch and they were town w t f.......... Koshi said: On May 25 2023 14:36 Koshi wrote:
That MZ wagon was all my townreads. Includes Vivax. So amazing what game the people on Vivax wagon were reading.
Anyway. I dont believe in full mafia wagons so 1 of my townreads must be wrong. But that's ok.
Planning on lynching the entire Vivax wagon first. Which means that he thinks there is at least 1 or more mafia on the Vivax wagon Look at here: On May 25 2023 18:28 Koshi wrote:On May 25 2023 18:26 DarthPunk wrote:On May 25 2023 18:20 Koshi wrote:On May 25 2023 18:16 marvellosity wrote:
Don’t disagree with most of your targets though, not sure if I am happy or sad about that. Super sad. Those reads now while we (the not baddies and his townreads) were there before the lynch. And the rayn blaming on the bottom is the icing on the glittered shitcake. What are your reads then? And I feel ok criticising rayn, because after the flip apparently it was super obvious that Vivax was town, but if that was the case there was an opportunity for that to not happen, and he didn't try and stop me, but I don't think it was as clear that he was super town as you have implied post flip. I understand the salt, but I also think you are engaged in results orientated thinking and I feel bad enough about the mis lynch already. Do you think I am town or mafia? If I am mafia then please make a case and try and lynch me, if you think I am town, can you please try and engage with me in a way that is productive. I think you could be mafia. I will never make a case on you. I will yell all future days that I think you are mafia. I will never respect any read you make this game. I think this is why Koshi was shot he thinks DP is a mafia on the Vivax wagon (which he did think 2 or all 3 mafia there) This post felt really bad btw, the fake outrage at the top. I get that if he was invested in the game but I read his whole filter in 2 minutes and its clearly not the case. This screams disingenuous to me.
I have to say I agree about the reaction at the top
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On May 26 2023 19:59 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2023 19:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:
marv why do you think Koshi was shot? I have nothing but wifom. Maybe koshi’s emotions N1 he exaggerated to make himself a less likely NK. Although that doesn’t matter so much if you’re a 1 shot vig. My own paranoia/ego thinks they might be removing my supporters so I can be a legit target. But simple answer is he was right about something you and I weren’t + they thought they were never going to mislynch him
It could be, in the case DP is maf (this is entirely speculative) that they tested out what would happen if koshi got attacked and I stonewalled it and they made the decision then.
Lots of ifs there though.
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On May 26 2023 20:02 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2023 19:59 marvellosity wrote:On May 26 2023 19:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:
marv why do you think Koshi was shot? I have nothing but wifom. Maybe koshi’s emotions N1 he exaggerated to make himself a less likely NK. Although that doesn’t matter so much if you’re a 1 shot vig. My own paranoia/ego thinks they might be removing my supporters so I can be a legit target. But simple answer is he was right about something you and I weren’t + they thought they were never going to mislynch him It could be, in the case DP is maf (this is entirely speculative) that they tested out what would happen if koshi got attacked and I stonewalled it and they made the decision then. Lots of ifs there though.
Tbh - in the case DP is town too, it actually works with either
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On May 26 2023 19:59 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2023 19:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:
marv why do you think Koshi was shot? I have nothing but wifom. Maybe koshi’s emotions N1 he exaggerated to make himself a less likely NK. Although that doesn’t matter so much if you’re a 1 shot vig. My own paranoia/ego thinks they might be removing my supporters so I can be a legit target. But simple answer is he was right about something you and I weren’t + they thought they were never going to mislynch him
Like i get you werent shot because you are likely pushing MZ lynched all day 2. Although shooting you pretty much would do the same thing..
Something at least i haven't considered (strongly at all) is DP and VE. Which Koshi did at various times.
Koshi MO says all day 2 is shitfight with DP. Why is that not beneficial for mafia if DP is town? I wouldn't trust myself talking Koshi out of that tilt.
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On May 26 2023 20:03 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2023 19:59 marvellosity wrote:On May 26 2023 19:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:
marv why do you think Koshi was shot? I have nothing but wifom. Maybe koshi’s emotions N1 he exaggerated to make himself a less likely NK. Although that doesn’t matter so much if you’re a 1 shot vig. My own paranoia/ego thinks they might be removing my supporters so I can be a legit target. But simple answer is he was right about something you and I weren’t + they thought they were never going to mislynch him Like i get you werent shot because you are likely pushing MZ lynched all day 2. Although shooting you pretty much would do the same thing..Something at least i haven't considered (strongly at all) is DP and VE. Which Koshi did at various times. Koshi MO says all day 2 is shitfight with DP. Why is that not beneficial for mafia if DP is town? I wouldn't trust myself talking Koshi out of that tilt.
I think we know the bolded doesn’t do the same thing, people just ignore dead people all the time.
Last paragraph is a very good point, I hadn’t considered that.
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I think it does, because i am in the game.
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Like if i was mafia i would totally shoot you and coast day 2 onto MZ lynch no matter anyone says nothing can be done about it.
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On May 26 2023 20:15 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Like if i was mafia i would totally shoot you and coast day 2 onto MZ lynch no matter anyone says nothing can be done about it.
And if you were shot i would do the exact same thing as town.
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On May 26 2023 20:03 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2023 19:59 marvellosity wrote:On May 26 2023 19:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:
marv why do you think Koshi was shot? I have nothing but wifom. Maybe koshi’s emotions N1 he exaggerated to make himself a less likely NK. Although that doesn’t matter so much if you’re a 1 shot vig. My own paranoia/ego thinks they might be removing my supporters so I can be a legit target. But simple answer is he was right about something you and I weren’t + they thought they were never going to mislynch him Like i get you werent shot because you are likely pushing MZ lynched all day 2. Although shooting you pretty much would do the same thing.. Something at least i haven't considered (strongly at all) is DP and VE. Which Koshi did at various times. Koshi MO says all day 2 is shitfight with DP. Why is that not beneficial for mafia if DP is town? I wouldn't trust myself talking Koshi out of that tilt.
Wifom pretty much. Koshi dying after that fight makes me look pretty bad.
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So it was either a shot on Koshi to protect DP/VE from his wrath, as like you say a town/town Koshi/DP fight is great for mafia.
Or it could simply be they thought Koshi was the least lynchable - why Koshi over you as well?
Simplest explanation is Koshi most right and therefore most dangerous?
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On May 26 2023 20:19 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2023 20:03 raynpelikoneet wrote:On May 26 2023 19:59 marvellosity wrote:On May 26 2023 19:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:
marv why do you think Koshi was shot? I have nothing but wifom. Maybe koshi’s emotions N1 he exaggerated to make himself a less likely NK. Although that doesn’t matter so much if you’re a 1 shot vig. My own paranoia/ego thinks they might be removing my supporters so I can be a legit target. But simple answer is he was right about something you and I weren’t + they thought they were never going to mislynch him Like i get you werent shot because you are likely pushing MZ lynched all day 2. Although shooting you pretty much would do the same thing.. Something at least i haven't considered (strongly at all) is DP and VE. Which Koshi did at various times. Koshi MO says all day 2 is shitfight with DP. Why is that not beneficial for mafia if DP is town? I wouldn't trust myself talking Koshi out of that tilt. Wifom pretty much. Koshi dying after that fight makes me look pretty bad.
And the fact that LS jumped straight in the thread to prod in that direction pretty much confirms it for me. But of course, he back tracked that after the smallest amount of pressure.
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On May 26 2023 20:19 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2023 20:03 raynpelikoneet wrote:On May 26 2023 19:59 marvellosity wrote:On May 26 2023 19:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:
marv why do you think Koshi was shot? I have nothing but wifom. Maybe koshi’s emotions N1 he exaggerated to make himself a less likely NK. Although that doesn’t matter so much if you’re a 1 shot vig. My own paranoia/ego thinks they might be removing my supporters so I can be a legit target. But simple answer is he was right about something you and I weren’t + they thought they were never going to mislynch him Like i get you werent shot because you are likely pushing MZ lynched all day 2. Although shooting you pretty much would do the same thing.. Something at least i haven't considered (strongly at all) is DP and VE. Which Koshi did at various times. Koshi MO says all day 2 is shitfight with DP. Why is that not beneficial for mafia if DP is town? I wouldn't trust myself talking Koshi out of that tilt. Wifom pretty much. Koshi dying after that fight makes me look pretty bad.
Or (again I understand this is still v speculative) do you as a mafia team think that town will think it’s unlikely you will hit Koshi when you are trying to attack and discredit him
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On May 26 2023 20:21 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2023 20:19 DarthPunk wrote:On May 26 2023 20:03 raynpelikoneet wrote:On May 26 2023 19:59 marvellosity wrote:On May 26 2023 19:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:
marv why do you think Koshi was shot? I have nothing but wifom. Maybe koshi’s emotions N1 he exaggerated to make himself a less likely NK. Although that doesn’t matter so much if you’re a 1 shot vig. My own paranoia/ego thinks they might be removing my supporters so I can be a legit target. But simple answer is he was right about something you and I weren’t + they thought they were never going to mislynch him Like i get you werent shot because you are likely pushing MZ lynched all day 2. Although shooting you pretty much would do the same thing.. Something at least i haven't considered (strongly at all) is DP and VE. Which Koshi did at various times. Koshi MO says all day 2 is shitfight with DP. Why is that not beneficial for mafia if DP is town? I wouldn't trust myself talking Koshi out of that tilt. Wifom pretty much. Koshi dying after that fight makes me look pretty bad. Or (again I understand this is still v speculative) do you as a mafia team think that town will think it’s unlikely you will hit Koshi when you are trying to attack and discredit him
Wifom.
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All NK analysis is wifom-y but not all wifom is equal. I won a 3p Lylo as town once where the other townie came into the last day sure I was mafia, and I managed to convince them otherwise based on NK.
There are still probabilities and motivations to consider
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On May 26 2023 20:19 marvellosity wrote:
So it was either a shot on Koshi to protect DP/VE from his wrath, as like you say a town/town Koshi/DP fight is great for mafia.
Or it could simply be they thought Koshi was the least lynchable - why Koshi over you as well?
Simplest explanation is Koshi most right and therefore most dangerous?
Yes Koshi must be MORE right on something at least. I can't think other options than DP/VE/mebaby.
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EPT
