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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
I feel pretty good about CopCake, she seemed like she was trying to get some stuff done when the thread was being silly. I feel decent about Vivax. Artanis leans townie to me as well. Can't really read Shock and Ever. My intuition is telling me that at least one is mafia. | ||
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
Both you and Vivax do not appear to be trying to hide and you have engaged multiple people. In my mind the best cues on day 1 are to look at who is speaking to who. Town players are not afraid to talk to everyone and I see that in you, cop, and vivax’s play. | ||
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
On November 14 2020 17:37 CopCake wrote: I just learned that if I spill water on the leaves they are going to fall. The water needs to go directly to the ground. Explains a lot about the leaves I just took out. After some time do you still have Artanis and Shock as you scum reads? I’d be willing to lynch Shock as things stand. I think we need to give ourselves the full 48 hour day though. | ||
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
On November 14 2020 23:37 Vivax wrote: Grey what are the odds Ever is scum in your book? Assuming 2 scum and Shock is one I would have her at 60%. 20% remaining is probably you. I am not confident enough to assign the remaining 20. | ||
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
On November 15 2020 05:27 ShoCkeyy wrote: Didn't give up, idk how you can make me out as mafia when I've barely played. You know if I'm mafia, I carry this shit on my back if needed. I'm town, there's more town, I'm just giving town breathing room, The issue is we don’t have evidence to the contrary. What do you think about Ever and her entrance to the thread. | ||
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
On November 15 2020 05:12 Vivax wrote: Also isn't this D1 mylo. If the setup is like I assume then 4v2 mislynch = 3v2 they shoot and town power roles cant help anything then scum win. If we no Lynch we can enter day 2 with 3v2. So yes, mislynch here likely loses us the game. If setup 1 scum 1 3p then mislynch here leads to 3v1v1, mafia worst case shoot town 2v1v1 meaning we do not lose. Vivax, I did not see it before, but I think no-lynching might be correct here. And if town has any KP roles that can choose not to fire, we probably need to refrain from that as well do you think? With activity levels of our collective top suspects I think this might be the right call. For the record, I recognize this is a lot of "ifs" in a self proclaimed bastard-like setup, but I have to assume the setup is at least somewhat regular until proven otherwise because we just can't do anything assuming everyone is town or whatnot. I personally put my money on this being 1 mafia 1 3p because thats the setup I would probably make. But, I am not willing to bet the game on that. | ||
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
On November 15 2020 13:35 Eversince wrote: On side notes. Art looking way better. I'm a little disappointed he voted for me. That said I understand why he thinks it a possibility. I don't see a mafia agenda in it. Cake is fine -thinking my activity level is alignment indicates for me.. Benefit of doubt though. We haven't played together much. Overall I agree. Grey is ok. I've no reason to scum lean. It was Art? I think iirc that scummed Grey? If that still is relevant let's talk. Shock seems pretty fluffy. I'm not good at reading him yet. He's got few post with little to say. I would Lynch. Vivax is posting lots more than I'm used to. While is ok normally.. I can't remember a single relevant thing. Red flags everywhere. I hate no lynching. At this point people should decide between Vivax or myself. I hate to put myself in that position. Sadly I have less time than expected. Leaves me as a question for people and we don't have time for it. I have a easy way to solve this problem though. I'll wait for thoughts. My time zone is rough to be able to chat with anyone t.t.. I do not like this one bit | ||
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
On November 15 2020 18:14 Eversince wrote: @Grey- why is it bad? 1) you give time to town by putting us in mylo unless 3p. 2) you give mafia a free up. 3) as town you are giving up your voice. 3b) you are at a point where you don't have confidence to Lynch. Which is it? As Vivax and I mentioned last page, I am operating under the assumption that we were in mylo D1. So a cavalier “you should lynch me or him”’is rather suspicious because it both does not fully point the finger at a player or nail you down to a position, and seems to further a mafia agenda. | ||
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
On November 15 2020 19:03 ShoCkeyy wrote: I'm not really giving up my voice as town and choosing no lynch. Even if it wasn’t mylo, mislynching a townie very rarely gives any good information anyway. Especially in a game like this, mafia would have very little at stake in backing that lynch. | ||
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
On November 16 2020 00:01 Vivax wrote: EBWOP: If 3p, it would exist alongside two scum (and make town sort of pointless?) I think we just need to assume scum exist and it’s possible for town to win. Further discussion of setup and balance only serves to dilute the thread and help scum. Vivax, pretend you have a gun. Who do you shoot? Who would you save? | ||
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
I would be willing to vote Ever tomorrow | ||
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
On November 16 2020 00:29 Vivax wrote: I had a spidey sense on you from the start but you not analyzing the setup before I did when you're one of the most diligent hosts on the site was really a nail in the coffin. I’ll own that failure. However, in the games I play, and indeed in post games of my themed setups, I often encourage players to try to play classic mafia and ignore setup speculation, as it is very easy for mafia to participate in this and look townie. So I would argue that my non analysis of the setup is irrelevant. I would be very interested to hear from Artanis today. We have some more data from other players. I would be especially interested in hearing his thoughts on the post I quoted from Ever, and Vivax and Copcake’s interaction regarding sheeping. | ||
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
On November 16 2020 02:44 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Do you believe everything you said here, Grey? I may not have phrased it appropriately but I’ll stand by it. I do not see the town motiviation behind that statement, especially in a game this small. | ||
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
Or you might be talking to her | ||
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
On November 16 2020 04:46 Eversince wrote: You're still trading a townie for information. You're condemning a townie to die because none of you have the guts to walk that tight rope. You're willing to sacrifice the one time we can be wrong, because you're scared. I'm not. Who needs to die? Sacrificing a townie for information to a lynch is very rarely worth it. That’s because mafia is more than happy to ride the lynch like everyone else. We should never lynch a townie for information expect for truly exceptional circumstances. For reference, indirect you to this line from Incog himself, he said it better: A common misconception in a majority lynch system is that no-lynch is bad due to the notion that flips are the only source of information. While flips are useful in confirming information, there are many cases where it is clear that town is bandwagoning a player and will lead to a mislynch. In most cases, a bandwagon lynch on a townie is not going to produce any useful information. Without serious competition for a lynch target, the mafia don’t have any incentive to either jump on or stay off the bandwagon. | ||
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
I am quite happy with my play after having come back, thanks for hosting slam, you strange man. | ||
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