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[M][N]Oil Futures Mafia - Page 11

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 06 2020 04:17 GMT
#1532
On May 06 2020 13:17 GlowingBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2020 13:15 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 13:08 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 06 2020 13:01 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 12:58 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 06 2020 11:20 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 11:13 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 11:10 Chezinu wrote:
I'm still here
Is there any way I can convince you to switch back to Jockmcplop?
I'll be here on and off for the next few hours, I'll be taking a sauna with my dad (shout-out to raynpelikoneet!).

Look at the associations between the GlowingBear, Jockmcplop, and Alakaslam team. Notice how Alakaslam is trying to vote anyone other than Jockmcplop, despite having Jockmcplop in his POE list. See how GlowingBear townread Jockmcplop Day 2 despite having no reason to do so (I think a page or two ago I showed why his reasons are invalid). Note Jockmcplop's lack of involvement and desire to play this game. He's a very strong town player, and I know he'd have more pushback against his lynch and throughout the game than this.

As it is now, the lynch comes down to a race. Grackaroni said he won't ever lynch Vivax, Jockmcplop will definitely vote to save himself. I'd rather seal the lynch of Jockmcplop and worry about the rest later.

In the end it's your decision, but if you've made up your mind I'd appreciate it if you let me know is all. Otherwise I'm highly confident that Jockmcplop is mafia and I believe he should be the lynch today.


This proves all your reads are basically associative.
They're not, but I'm not sure (1) why it matters and (2) what makes you say that?


Your reads resides in jock being mafia, then I'm mafia for that, then whoever I read as scum is town.
I strongly believe that Jockmcplop is mafia.

If you re-evaluate Jockmcplop, I will re-evaluate you. Deal?


Alright. I believe Jock could be mafia but I don't want to vote him today. Your turn.
Can I ask why?
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 06 2020 04:33 GMT
#1535
GRACKARONI!!!!!!!!

Vote to lynch Jockmcplop, save Vivax?
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 06 2020 04:39 GMT
#1536
On May 06 2020 13:21 GlowingBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2020 13:17 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 13:17 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 06 2020 13:15 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 13:08 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 06 2020 13:01 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 12:58 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 06 2020 11:20 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 11:13 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 11:10 Chezinu wrote:
I'm still here
Is there any way I can convince you to switch back to Jockmcplop?
I'll be here on and off for the next few hours, I'll be taking a sauna with my dad (shout-out to raynpelikoneet!).

Look at the associations between the GlowingBear, Jockmcplop, and Alakaslam team. Notice how Alakaslam is trying to vote anyone other than Jockmcplop, despite having Jockmcplop in his POE list. See how GlowingBear townread Jockmcplop Day 2 despite having no reason to do so (I think a page or two ago I showed why his reasons are invalid). Note Jockmcplop's lack of involvement and desire to play this game. He's a very strong town player, and I know he'd have more pushback against his lynch and throughout the game than this.

As it is now, the lynch comes down to a race. Grackaroni said he won't ever lynch Vivax, Jockmcplop will definitely vote to save himself. I'd rather seal the lynch of Jockmcplop and worry about the rest later.

In the end it's your decision, but if you've made up your mind I'd appreciate it if you let me know is all. Otherwise I'm highly confident that Jockmcplop is mafia and I believe he should be the lynch today.


This proves all your reads are basically associative.
They're not, but I'm not sure (1) why it matters and (2) what makes you say that?


Your reads resides in jock being mafia, then I'm mafia for that, then whoever I read as scum is town.
I strongly believe that Jockmcplop is mafia.

If you re-evaluate Jockmcplop, I will re-evaluate you. Deal?


Alright. I believe Jock could be mafia but I don't want to vote him today. Your turn.
Can I ask why?


Because although I think my point about him townreading me instead on jumping right away to kill me isn't valid anymore, I still believe his posts sounds townish enough so I wouldn't risk killing him today.
Well, I reread your filter. Admittedly fairly quickly, but I did.

I'm sorry, it's hard to ignore associations. I couldn't help but notice how the reason for your townread on Jockmcplop changed so much. First you said it's because he was making good posts, then you said it was because of how he townread you, then you called him top town and disagreed with my case on him, then you said it was just because of how he townread you. And a few times you said he was town because mafia wouldn't afk and not vote, which is just false when it comes to medical emergencies. It doesn't feel like you have multiple reasons to townread Jockmcplop, it sounds like you are forcing a townread and are choosing an arbitrary reason each time.

Outside of that, I don't notice a ton wrong in your filter except how you were wrong on Day 2 with the ShoCkeyy push. You were all excited to lynch raynpelikoneet but then you hard pushed ShoCkeyy most of the day which resulted in his lynch.

I wish I had more reasons to call you mafia, so I could convince others It just reads to me like you're mafia. I guess it's just a gut read. Maybe I shouldn't use gut reads in a 77-page game in MYLO with plenty of information but as logical as I am, feelings dominate my decisions.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 06 2020 05:00 GMT
#1546
Thanks guys, you're the best <3

I'll be around in the morning in case you decide to switch votes
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 06 2020 05:10 GMT
#1555
On May 06 2020 14:06 Chezinu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2020 14:00 Trfel wrote:
Thanks guys, you're the best <3

I'll be around in the morning in case you decide to switch votes

So what is it like to be in the mafia qt with Vivax and Koshi?
Pretty hype, they're a lot of fun!
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 06 2020 05:13 GMT
#1557
On May 06 2020 14:06 GlowingBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2020 13:39 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 13:21 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 06 2020 13:17 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 13:17 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 06 2020 13:15 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 13:08 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 06 2020 13:01 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 12:58 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 06 2020 11:20 Trfel wrote:
[quote]I'll be here on and off for the next few hours, I'll be taking a sauna with my dad (shout-out to raynpelikoneet!).

Look at the associations between the GlowingBear, Jockmcplop, and Alakaslam team. Notice how Alakaslam is trying to vote anyone other than Jockmcplop, despite having Jockmcplop in his POE list. See how GlowingBear townread Jockmcplop Day 2 despite having no reason to do so (I think a page or two ago I showed why his reasons are invalid). Note Jockmcplop's lack of involvement and desire to play this game. He's a very strong town player, and I know he'd have more pushback against his lynch and throughout the game than this.

As it is now, the lynch comes down to a race. Grackaroni said he won't ever lynch Vivax, Jockmcplop will definitely vote to save himself. I'd rather seal the lynch of Jockmcplop and worry about the rest later.

In the end it's your decision, but if you've made up your mind I'd appreciate it if you let me know is all. Otherwise I'm highly confident that Jockmcplop is mafia and I believe he should be the lynch today.


This proves all your reads are basically associative.
They're not, but I'm not sure (1) why it matters and (2) what makes you say that?


Your reads resides in jock being mafia, then I'm mafia for that, then whoever I read as scum is town.
I strongly believe that Jockmcplop is mafia.

If you re-evaluate Jockmcplop, I will re-evaluate you. Deal?


Alright. I believe Jock could be mafia but I don't want to vote him today. Your turn.
Can I ask why?


Because although I think my point about him townreading me instead on jumping right away to kill me isn't valid anymore, I still believe his posts sounds townish enough so I wouldn't risk killing him today.
Well, I reread your filter. Admittedly fairly quickly, but I did.

I'm sorry, it's hard to ignore associations. I couldn't help but notice how the reason for your townread on Jockmcplop changed so much. First you said it's because he was making good posts, then you said it was because of how he townread you, then you called him top town and disagreed with my case on him, then you said it was just because of how he townread you. And a few times you said he was town because mafia wouldn't afk and not vote, which is just false when it comes to medical emergencies. It doesn't feel like you have multiple reasons to townread Jockmcplop, it sounds like you are forcing a townread and are choosing an arbitrary reason each time.

Outside of that, I don't notice a ton wrong in your filter except how you were wrong on Day 2 with the ShoCkeyy push. You were all excited to lynch raynpelikoneet but then you hard pushed ShoCkeyy most of the day which resulted in his lynch.

I wish I had more reasons to call you mafia, so I could convince others It just reads to me like you're mafia. I guess it's just a gut read. Maybe I shouldn't use gut reads in a 77-page game in MYLO with plenty of information but as logical as I am, feelings dominate my decisions.


I even forgot that AFK thing lol. I find hard to believe mafia would risk getting modkilled by not dropping a vote. But you've got a point.
You realize that some of the things you're saying are the same thing, but just worded differently, right? I've said I like how his perspective regarding the game is genuine.

And why pushing Shockey instead of rayn is bad? He posted a bad WIFOM post that even him didn't believe in.

The only reason you have to call me mafia with jock is associative.
Like I said, my reasons aren't great. It's a gut read, based on the feels.

Felt like you pushed ShoCkeyy to secure an easy mislynch instead of raynpelikoneet, who wasn't likely to be lynched. Leaving your mafia buddies in greater risk.

And we can see what happens after Jockmcplop flips.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 06 2020 05:22 GMT
#1559
On May 06 2020 14:12 Chezinu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2020 14:10 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 14:06 Chezinu wrote:
On May 06 2020 14:00 Trfel wrote:
Thanks guys, you're the best <3

I'll be around in the morning in case you decide to switch votes

So what is it like to be in the mafia qt with Vivax and Koshi?
Pretty hype, they're a lot of fun!

I can't believe you were able to be on a team with two really great mafia players that have a knack for controlling the lynches. I'm not sure if I could stop yall even if I knew you all were mafia...

I guess I would have to spam the thread.
Yeah, honestly I'm typically quite poor as mafia. I had one good game many years ago and people have been scared of me ever since... but it was quite the one hit wonder. Koshi has an insane ability to carry as mafia when he wants to, though. And I'm sure Vivax could do quite well. But I'd feel so guilty... I much prefer (attempting) to win a victory with town.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 06 2020 05:56 GMT
#1561
On May 06 2020 14:53 GlowingBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2020 14:13 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 14:06 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 06 2020 13:39 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 13:21 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 06 2020 13:17 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 13:17 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 06 2020 13:15 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 13:08 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 06 2020 13:01 Trfel wrote:
[quote]They're not, but I'm not sure (1) why it matters and (2) what makes you say that?


Your reads resides in jock being mafia, then I'm mafia for that, then whoever I read as scum is town.
I strongly believe that Jockmcplop is mafia.

If you re-evaluate Jockmcplop, I will re-evaluate you. Deal?


Alright. I believe Jock could be mafia but I don't want to vote him today. Your turn.
Can I ask why?


Because although I think my point about him townreading me instead on jumping right away to kill me isn't valid anymore, I still believe his posts sounds townish enough so I wouldn't risk killing him today.
Well, I reread your filter. Admittedly fairly quickly, but I did.

I'm sorry, it's hard to ignore associations. I couldn't help but notice how the reason for your townread on Jockmcplop changed so much. First you said it's because he was making good posts, then you said it was because of how he townread you, then you called him top town and disagreed with my case on him, then you said it was just because of how he townread you. And a few times you said he was town because mafia wouldn't afk and not vote, which is just false when it comes to medical emergencies. It doesn't feel like you have multiple reasons to townread Jockmcplop, it sounds like you are forcing a townread and are choosing an arbitrary reason each time.

Outside of that, I don't notice a ton wrong in your filter except how you were wrong on Day 2 with the ShoCkeyy push. You were all excited to lynch raynpelikoneet but then you hard pushed ShoCkeyy most of the day which resulted in his lynch.

I wish I had more reasons to call you mafia, so I could convince others It just reads to me like you're mafia. I guess it's just a gut read. Maybe I shouldn't use gut reads in a 77-page game in MYLO with plenty of information but as logical as I am, feelings dominate my decisions.


I even forgot that AFK thing lol. I find hard to believe mafia would risk getting modkilled by not dropping a vote. But you've got a point.
You realize that some of the things you're saying are the same thing, but just worded differently, right? I've said I like how his perspective regarding the game is genuine.

And why pushing Shockey instead of rayn is bad? He posted a bad WIFOM post that even him didn't believe in.

The only reason you have to call me mafia with jock is associative.
Like I said, my reasons aren't great. It's a gut read, based on the feels.

Felt like you pushed ShoCkeyy to secure an easy mislynch instead of raynpelikoneet, who wasn't likely to be lynched. Leaving your mafia buddies in greater risk.

And we can see what happens after Jockmcplop flips.


Okay, it seems there's nothing I can do to convince you I'm town.
After jock flips the game ends, that's what happens.
I thought you just said that Jockmcplop could be mafia?
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 06 2020 06:00 GMT
#1564
On May 06 2020 13:17 GlowingBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2020 13:15 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 13:08 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 06 2020 13:01 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 12:58 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 06 2020 11:20 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 11:13 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 11:10 Chezinu wrote:
I'm still here
Is there any way I can convince you to switch back to Jockmcplop?
I'll be here on and off for the next few hours, I'll be taking a sauna with my dad (shout-out to raynpelikoneet!).

Look at the associations between the GlowingBear, Jockmcplop, and Alakaslam team. Notice how Alakaslam is trying to vote anyone other than Jockmcplop, despite having Jockmcplop in his POE list. See how GlowingBear townread Jockmcplop Day 2 despite having no reason to do so (I think a page or two ago I showed why his reasons are invalid). Note Jockmcplop's lack of involvement and desire to play this game. He's a very strong town player, and I know he'd have more pushback against his lynch and throughout the game than this.

As it is now, the lynch comes down to a race. Grackaroni said he won't ever lynch Vivax, Jockmcplop will definitely vote to save himself. I'd rather seal the lynch of Jockmcplop and worry about the rest later.

In the end it's your decision, but if you've made up your mind I'd appreciate it if you let me know is all. Otherwise I'm highly confident that Jockmcplop is mafia and I believe he should be the lynch today.


This proves all your reads are basically associative.
They're not, but I'm not sure (1) why it matters and (2) what makes you say that?


Your reads resides in jock being mafia, then I'm mafia for that, then whoever I read as scum is town.
I strongly believe that Jockmcplop is mafia.

If you re-evaluate Jockmcplop, I will re-evaluate you. Deal?


Alright. I believe Jock could be mafia but I don't want to vote him today. Your turn.
To me, this implies a decent possibility that Jockmcplop is mafia. Like, it's realistic. But now you don't seem to think so anymore. What changed?
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 06 2020 06:09 GMT
#1568
On May 06 2020 15:05 GlowingBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2020 15:00 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 13:17 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 06 2020 13:15 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 13:08 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 06 2020 13:01 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 12:58 GlowingBear wrote:
On May 06 2020 11:20 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 11:13 Trfel wrote:
On May 06 2020 11:10 Chezinu wrote:
I'm still here
Is there any way I can convince you to switch back to Jockmcplop?
I'll be here on and off for the next few hours, I'll be taking a sauna with my dad (shout-out to raynpelikoneet!).

Look at the associations between the GlowingBear, Jockmcplop, and Alakaslam team. Notice how Alakaslam is trying to vote anyone other than Jockmcplop, despite having Jockmcplop in his POE list. See how GlowingBear townread Jockmcplop Day 2 despite having no reason to do so (I think a page or two ago I showed why his reasons are invalid). Note Jockmcplop's lack of involvement and desire to play this game. He's a very strong town player, and I know he'd have more pushback against his lynch and throughout the game than this.

As it is now, the lynch comes down to a race. Grackaroni said he won't ever lynch Vivax, Jockmcplop will definitely vote to save himself. I'd rather seal the lynch of Jockmcplop and worry about the rest later.

In the end it's your decision, but if you've made up your mind I'd appreciate it if you let me know is all. Otherwise I'm highly confident that Jockmcplop is mafia and I believe he should be the lynch today.


This proves all your reads are basically associative.
They're not, but I'm not sure (1) why it matters and (2) what makes you say that?


Your reads resides in jock being mafia, then I'm mafia for that, then whoever I read as scum is town.
I strongly believe that Jockmcplop is mafia.

If you re-evaluate Jockmcplop, I will re-evaluate you. Deal?


Alright. I believe Jock could be mafia but I don't want to vote him today. Your turn.
To me, this implies a decent possibility that Jockmcplop is mafia. Like, it's realistic. But now you don't seem to think so anymore. What changed?


We were working under assumptions here. I'd reevaluate jock and you'd reevaluate me. There's that.
Fair enough. I still think that's a slight slip from you but I guess it's up to the others to decide.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 06 2020 06:11 GMT
#1569
Okay, get some rest.

Sorry for the tunnel, I guess after I lost confidence in my ShoCkeyy read and was right I feel like I should be more confident in my reads. Not like there is much left to lose, anyway.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 06 2020 06:55 GMT
#1573
On May 06 2020 15:42 Jockmcplop wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2020 13:58 Chezinu wrote:
##Vote: Jockmcplop

Then we slam Koshi!

If we lose, we blame rayn

There is no 'then'
Out of all of the people you could quote and say this to, why do you choose your biggest scumread? Shouldn't he already know this? :/
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 06 2020 07:09 GMT
#1579
On May 06 2020 16:05 Jockmcplop wrote:
Trfel why aren't you more concerned with vivax or koshi's votes?
If you're so sure that i'm scum wouldn't it bother you that people are putting their votes on me for bad reasons? Doesn't that implicate those people in a bussing situation?

Nah. You don't care. Tomorrow doesn't even matter at this point, right?
I am pretty confident you are mafia, yes. I'm also pretty confident (independently) that Koshi and Vivax are town. Combined, I see nothing wrong with their votes.

It makes sense for Vivax to feel discouraged and be willing to go for a slight reach in MYLO. He probably didn't want to fight with me over the lynch target too, haha. Koshi looks a bit worse for me, but I can still see it from a demotivated town perspective.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 06 2020 07:16 GMT
#1581
@Vivax, on Chezinu, I have no answer. We can discuss it tomorrow. But we are not lynching him today, promise?
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 06 2020 07:23 GMT
#1583
Also, GlowingBear, I was reading the Holy Guardians Ch. 2 Endgame again and saw the analysis QT you posted. No idea how I missed it before. But thanks for doing that, I really appreciate it! I know it's a time-consuming task, even for a short game like that one
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 06 2020 07:26 GMT
#1584
On May 06 2020 16:22 Vivax wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2020 16:16 Trfel wrote:
@Vivax, on Chezinu, I have no answer. We can discuss it tomorrow. But we are not lynching him today, promise?


Usually I'd say depends, but looking at Jock's reads I'm feeling pretty good about my vote. I'm confident about my ability to read you and Koshi.
Still going to point this stuff out for posterity. Esp. GBs emotionality, Slam being an instant sucker for it, and Chez sentiment based voting, if I had to sum up what I think sticks out.
Makes sense. I have a feeling that scum are going to make a final push to save Jockmcplop in the last hour of the day (when I can't be here). That's my main worry at this point.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 06 2020 07:34 GMT
#1586
Long story short, I reread your filter and changed my mind. Your filter is quite persuasive
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 06 2020 07:40 GMT
#1587
Jockmcplop, I'm sorry if I'm being a jerk. The smiley was meant as a joke, to tease you, not insult you.

I am terribly sorry if I am somehow wrong. It's just the way I see the game right now, I don't think I am. And as Day 3 has progressed, it only fits my view more and more.

I'll try to back off a bit and let you do your thing, feel free to ask me anything though and I will try to politely discuss. You have a vote to support with reasons, after all.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 06 2020 07:50 GMT
#1592
On May 06 2020 16:43 Jockmcplop wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2020 16:40 Trfel wrote:
Jockmcplop, I'm sorry if I'm being a jerk. The smiley was meant as a joke, to tease you, not insult you.

I am terribly sorry if I am somehow wrong. It's just the way I see the game right now, I don't think I am. And as Day 3 has progressed, it only fits my view more and more.

I'll try to back off a bit and let you do your thing, feel free to ask me anything though and I will try to politely discuss. You have a vote to support with reasons, after all.


I'm not offended trfel you are doing what you have to do!

Thanks for understanding

I will likely fall asleep sometime soon, so if I stop responding that is why.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
May 06 2020 16:38 GMT
#1660


And now mafia can switch votes at the deadline to kill Vivax or whoever Koshi voted for.
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Episode 114
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