Honestly it's a bit hard to say, but my gut tells me it's a townish rant. Maybe this is just because I tend to not be a believer in scumslips, but also because primarily I feel like mafia tends to be more organized.

First, I assume mafia didn't decide to make the intentional play of not submitting a night kill so that it would be randomized and announced as randomized to feign inactivity. That seems far too convoluted.

Following that, if ShoCkeyy is mafia, he couldn't forget that the mafia night kill was randomized. He would have thought about possible night kills and the strategies/implications of each, and then failed to submit one, so he would freak out (which admittedly does fit what happened). But I feel like it would be so obvious to mafia what happened that he wouldn't then go into night kill analysis. It's so messy it feels more town to me, mafia tends to be a bit more measured, careful, and constructive.

But maybe that's not ShoCkeyy's mafia playstyle. Maybe he is an impulsive, rushed poster as mafia. Then I could see it coming from mafia, but most mafia players aren't like this. Another thing to note is that he didn't go after me or Chezinu, he went after you (Hapahauli). That's a much, much, much harder target, and it feels more like a town tinfoil theory than mafia, who tends to focus on the easiest target in LYLO/MYLO.

For ShoCkeyy to be town, he'd have to be really flustered. Reading that the night kill was randomized and not the second blue post does kinda give away that mafia failed to submit a night kill, I picked that up myself before reading the second blue post. Losing his top townread and biggest protector (in raynpelikoneet, also potentially his only chance at avoiding the lynch), I could see him getting pretty flustered and confused.

I once lynched the town gunsmith after he claimed he'd flip green once he got counterclaimed, and only after everyone called him out on it realized he'd flip blue. I just feel like town are more inclined to make large mistakes of that kind than mafia. Maybe I'm wrong, I'll definitely keep thinking about it, but those are my thoughts right now.

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 11 2020 08:28 GMT

#669

I guess I could be remembering wrong but I thought there was a game where Chezinu broke that pattern? I forget which one though and he hasn't been mafia for a while, so maybe I am misremembering. I'll try and check in the morning.

Good night Mr. Chez.

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 12 2020 06:20 GMT

#676

You know what, I've changed my mind, I'm voting for ShoCkeyy.

For all of the resistance to give reads and the confidence to play his own style, there are simply too many contradictions to ignore.

He had reads. Then he said he wouldn't have reads until the night kill or the day 2 lynch. Then when pressured he produced reads. Huh? Makes no sense.

After the day 1 lynch, two of his top townreads (Chezinu and BloodyC0bbler) became his lynch pile. I don't know why, it seems like he was just following thread sentiment (especially on BloodyC0bbler), making up scumreads.

I could babble forever about ShoCkeyy's filter and play, but it feels really motivated by what's happening in the thread, motivated by pressure. Not coming from a town player who is actually trying to figure things out. And that makes me think he is mafia.

Yes, mafia didn't night kill. Yes, Chezinu didn't post at all night 2. But ShoCkeyy's only night 2 posts were very early into night 2. It's quite possible that ShoCkeyy is mafia and didn't submit a night kill and then didn't come back for a while and it was randomized for him. On the lack of night kill alone, it does point to Chezinu more, but I definitely think ShoCkeyy is still a possibility.

I could see it going either way honestly

Not very confident this game. It's entirely my bad for laziness/lack of activity/struggling to read these last few players. But right now I am more confident in ShoCkeyy being mafia than I am in Chezinu being mafia.

Will try to be back before the deadline tomorrow to talk about it and/or change votes if needed.

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 12 2020 07:14 GMT

#679

On April 12 2020 16:09 Chezinu wrote:

Show nested quote +

What about Hapa? He defended me and said that my heart <3's people and make them laugh. Then today... he turned on me as if I bussed Jock... If I were to bus, Jock would have volunteered. The question is... did Jock volunteer or did Hapa lynch Jock out of self-preservation?

I don't really think it's Hapahauli, it's possible, but it would be some pretty brilliant mafia play if it is him. Hapahauli posted his reasons for lynching Jockmcplop quite early on, it felt like a genuine push to me.

You really think Hapahauli is mafia?

Trfel

7015 Posts

April 12 2020 17:33 GMT

#725

GG all!

Thanks to GlowingBear and Tubesock for hosting!

Sorry again for my lack of activity day 2-3.

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