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Pandain
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Pandain
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On June 24 2019 04:18 KelsierSC wrote: So we can't lynch HF, doesn't seem fair. Never say never | ||
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I am going to be voting Kelsier because I absolutely hate his opening post. On June 24 2019 16:28 KelsierSC wrote: Morning Everyone, Liked the discussion between rayn and trefl regarding eywa's reads. That's bumped trefl up. The scum reads seem off to me and need more explanation. I don't like ES particularly, but pandain is just one low content poster in a game of low content posters. ShapeLog town read also needs more explanation. I don't like Jocks entrance. His first comment is he has nothing to add and things are uneventful. But as soon as HF throws out a name he jumps on it trying to bury Grack. The bolded sentence just seems very forced, like he's trying to find someone to cast suspicion on. I in no way saw Jock's post as "trying to bury Grack", and I would love if anyone else commented whether they did." Maybe it could be an easy mistake, but then he later double downed on this when I think it's pretty obvious Jock wasn't really accusing anyone, and definitely not "trying to bury" him. | ||
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On June 24 2019 16:49 KelsierSC wrote: you didn't mention him until HF called him mafia and then you piled on. I mean this is just so weak. He hasn't mentioned him until HF called him mafia? This is not strange even if Jock was actually suspicious of Grack. It's day 1, and he had practically no posts before HF came in. | ||
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On June 24 2019 17:32 Jockmcplop wrote: Been reading Trfel's filter, its super weird already. Like, the intention behind the posts seems townie, kinda flailing around loking for bits to grab a hold of, but the wording is suspicious. Lots of maybes and questions like 'do you guys agree?' and also the 'We can talk about something else if you want' thing. This is a particularly mafia-esque way of phrasing a suspicion, for example. If I recall correctly, I was suspicious of Trfel last game I played with him for the exact same reason. He ended up being town. I think it's just how he posts | ||
Pandain
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Slight Town Reads: Eywa, Eversince Slight mafia reads: Rayn, KelsierSC Null: Everyone else. | ||
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On June 25 2019 01:29 raynpelikoneet wrote: The green part however doesn't make any sense at all in comparison to the red one since he is letting one guy off the hook for doing the wrong thing (accusing Grack) and changing the subject to another guy. I don't think that's a mafia thing to do because i think the mafia thing to do is to let Trfel and Jock be town for now and join the accusation, accuse them both, or act like you dont know where your head is at because you are now confused especially since HF jumped in. I think all of those outcomes are better than what Kelsier did and i don't think what he did makes any sense from mafia perspective. What you would do as mafia is completely different than what other people would do. | ||
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On June 25 2019 20:42 Eversince wrote: Yeah, go check my history on the site. If all my games are listed, otherwise a comment post from my profile will show it. I just checked, we have never played together hahaha. I'm going to keep my vote on Kelsier for the time being, though I want to hear from Grack. | ||
Pandain
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Rayn's reasoning is convoluted enough that's it's hard to understand (and thus make judgments on) his arguments. I think Slam would actually be a fine lynch, just because I don't have a lot of convidence in anyone and better to lynch someone completely noncontributive. I agree Grack's roleclaim makes no sense, and I doubt he's doctor, but I'm unsure whether that makes him VT or mafia. I'm still going to keep my vote on Kelsier because I don't like his responses. I have strong town reads on you (eversince) and jock. Anyway feel free to push me but I honestly don't have more thoughts than that | ||
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On June 25 2019 23:27 Grackaroni wrote: Yes. I wouldn't fake claim because I know there would be a good chance of counterclaim. I'm so heavily tempted to vote you because if you're town that's actually an incredibally anti-town play that you made for no reason. | ||
Pandain
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It not only ruins a lot of your enjoyment of the game (you will always be roleblocked) it also hurts town overall because one of their most powerful blue roles just claimed super early day 1 and is essentially useless. If you're town, you should be punished for this type of play and policy lynched. If you're mafia, you should be lynched. I'm voting you. | ||
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On June 25 2019 23:43 raynpelikoneet wrote: Are you a dumbass or mafia? Is this to me or to grack | ||
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On June 25 2019 23:52 raynpelikoneet wrote: Well Eywa is mafia most likely too. This is the annoying type of scumplayer (Conversion looks the same usually) who are not considerred scum because they are "too abrasive to be mafia" when in fact nothing they say pretty much makes sense, and just get ignored. Furthermore waayyyyyyy different from last game where she actually tried to play and figure shit out (until we got onto a shitfight). Pandain my best bet for third scum just for calling Grackaroni mafia (or a lynch) for a claim that doesnt make any sense in his mind from mafia perspective, like basically he wants to lynch a townie and paints it as a "mafia read". Those are my reads, if i am wrong on something get slam in there, most likely everyone else is town. Honestly no I find it very hard to believe that Grack as doctor would willingly throw away his role when under no pressure. If there was a huge bunch of tension or fighting and a lot of votes on him, I could see it, but there was none of that. It seems very fake how he did it. So I think he's mafia. But yes even if he's town he should be lynched. It's such an anti town play that it's an auto policy lynch. | ||
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On June 25 2019 23:53 raynpelikoneet wrote: Oh yeah Pandain also made a comment on me that should never make any sense to him if what he has said before in the game has made any sense to him so that's why he is mafia too. This comment is a perfect example of why I don't understand many of your posts. I have no idea what this means | ||
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I know he would vote grack | ||
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On June 26 2019 00:43 Eywa- wrote: I think Grack claiming is weird, but isn't necessarily scummy. Scum have no reason to fake claim doc because they are setting themselves up for a D2-D3 lynch... That being a player not under pressure makes it more likely that it's town. Players who claim under pressure have a higher chance of flipping scum than players who claim when not under pressure. It's crazy how the scummiest player in the game always tends to claim before getting lynched. But Grackaroni was not under pressure at all. He had one vote on him (HF). And HF was the only person pushing him. If you're actually the doctor, is this when you feel compelled to claim? And basically forsake your whole role because it's very likely you will be roleblocked every single round? And there's plenty of reasons to fake claim doctor. I actually doubt there's any doctor at all (and it wouldn't seem very balanced considering we have a day-1 auto confirmed town who happens to be an active Vet, and yes these sort of things do play into a hosts' mind.) And if there does happen to be a real doctor who counter claims, that gives mafia a free roleblock +shot on HF. Even for a dead mafia that's not that bad a play. Conversely, if he gets away with his fake claim, he gets a bunch of town cred. | ||
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And what new reads would you have if Rayn flips town? | ||
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On June 26 2019 00:57 Eywa- wrote: Sure, but if he's not the doctor, we lynch him later in the game and there's no damage done. But how do you know he's not the doctor? It's likely he wouldn't get shot because mafia can just RB him every turn + that would increase suspicion on him if he's actually town. | ||
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On June 26 2019 01:14 Holyflare wrote: Anyone that thinks there's a doctor and a named townie is sorely misinformed. 100% this. It's possible but unlikely. And especially when the named townie is HF. Hosts do keep these kinds of things in mind for balance - a host would almost never make all HF, Rayn, and me a mafia team for instance. | ||
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On June 26 2019 01:42 Jockmcplop wrote: Despite the fact that he's been nearly universally read as mafia/null, I'd perfectly well accept that no-one wants to vote for Kiesler if someone could point me at a townie post of his. He's been here, so its not like he hasn't had the opportunity. I also find it a bit concerning when at least 4 people scumread a guy and no-one votes for them. It means they can't lose. I think he's a great vig shot. | ||
Pandain
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At this rate HF will somehow be lynched. | ||
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On June 26 2019 04:08 Eversince wrote: Or..... He's the other active vet player. If not s!Rayn will probably die tonight. Why even point this out? We still got 24 hours before he would *possibly* die, and if he's almost about to be lynched tonight good chance he lives another day. | ||
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On June 26 2019 04:19 Trfel wrote: ##vote: Alakaslam I'm a cop out. You don't get to do this when the thread is this short. quickly skim everything you missed and make up your mind. | ||
Pandain
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At least we know slam will spam up the thread later when he's free. Kelsier will just always be the same and be lynch bait every lynch in future even if town. | ||
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If he was, mafia would be bandwagoning someone else with the votes this close. | ||
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On June 26 2019 04:27 Pandain wrote: There is no world slam is mafia here. If he was, mafia would be bandwagoning someone else with the votes this close. | ||
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@HF lynch rayn? | ||
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On June 26 2019 04:32 Eversince wrote: So Pandain why was that a terrible lynch? :p | ||
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On June 26 2019 04:33 Holyflare wrote: So Pandain only becomes active when slam is up for lynch ![]() I was active way before so this is completely false. Anyway I'm obviously suspicious, but because I know I'm town it's pretty likely to me that one of kelsier/SL is mafia. Like I said, if even 2 mafia was here it's likely they would have tried to bandwagon on someone else. | ||
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Null: SL Scum: Grack, Kelsier | ||
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On June 26 2019 04:36 Eversince wrote: I'm also going to filter you and decide if I even want to give you that chance, I encourage you to. I don't think I've done anything mafia except try to push away a scum lynch. Obviously that sucks but sometimes in mafia you're wrong, and I still think that if mafia had been active that slam would not have been in that position so late in the time. It shows to me that mafia was inactive. | ||
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If I was you guys I would probably vote me anyway. Great news is that we lynch scum day 1 so mislynching me isn't a big deal. I'll just say that yeah I thought Slam was a decent lynch if we had no idea what to do, but I grew increasingly certain KSC was scum. And it still seemed unlikely to me especially later that with the votes this close a mafia would be lynched. And I think this is true, if even 2 mafia were active then it would have been easy to force another lynch. But yeah anyway sometimes in mafia you're wrong and you end up hard-defending the mafia with three minutes to go. What you gonna do | ||
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I think this game might be close to figured out by that point. Before tonight ends I'll post some analysis given that I know I'm town and how that affects think. | ||
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On June 26 2019 04:57 Eversince wrote: This makes no sense to me. If a we have a vig it should go into mafia. If your not, why just not care? A town waste a vig shot on town.. Outs our vig.... And gain nothing so why even consider it? What's worse? Me getting Vig'd, or town wasting a whole day lynching me tomorrow? And a confirmed Vig is huge considering that you, HF, and Trfel are all already pretty much guranteed town. | ||
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On June 26 2019 05:02 Eversince wrote: I don't believe the Grack doc claim. I think he is just VT trying to draw kp away from you. At least makes sense to me. This wouldn't make any sense. Mafia would just RB Grack plus shoot HF if they believed him. They would never shoot Grack | ||
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On June 26 2019 05:07 Eversince wrote: How? Grack as doc can't save himself. So wait for HF. Shoot Grack. Because Grack would protect HF. You want to get rid of confirmed town as soon as possible. And there's already suspicion on Grack, so it's useful keeping him alive. And his role is useless if you keep roleblocking him. So best solution: roleblock Grack, shoot HF | ||
Pandain
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So if Grack is telling the truth, again, Mafia roleblocks Grack, shoots HF. If Grack is lying and is town, HF still likely gets shot because they roleblock Grack. Likely HF dies. If Grack is lying and is mafia, HF dies obviously. | ||
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On June 26 2019 05:17 Eversince wrote: My point was that Grack fakeclaim to draw kp away from HF. Maby in the hopes there is a doc. If Mafia has RB, they are always 100% RBing Grack and shooting HF. Therefore KP is not drawn away. They would never shoot Grack, because Grack is under suspicion and HF is a confirmed town. Mafia's main priority is to somehow get rid of HF. But if Grack is town, and was hoping another doctor would save him, then there is an extremely high chance that the other doctor counterclaims, thus causing one of the two to be lynched. So it's not smart to do this. | ||
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On June 26 2019 06:21 Eywa- wrote: Well, if Alakaslam flips scum. Eversince and trfel are town cleared because there was no reason to bus there. Are you also not caught up in this thread rofl. | ||
Pandain
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I was pushing for KSC for a while. | ||
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I was certain that slam was town, and even if I voted SL it would still be a slam lynch. So i was trying to get you to vote rayn, where there was a small chance he was scum. | ||
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On June 26 2019 06:57 Eversince wrote: Why vote Rayn though? There wasn't a reason and still isn't. 5% chance (rayn) is better than 0% chance (slam) And imo Slam was even worse than a regular town lynch, because we would have gotten no information out of a slam lynch if he was town. | ||
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On June 26 2019 06:58 Holyflare wrote: Can you outline where this was the case? All I've found in reference to Kelsier near deadline is that you told Jock that Kelsier would be a good vig shot? Where do you feel like you've pushed Kelsier and have been active doing so in comparison to your vigour at deadline for slam? I just re-read my filter and I misremembered things, but it still completely shows I was active the whole day. First I pushed Kelsier. Then I was pushing Grack very heavily. Then at the end Grack had no traction so I switched back to KSC. When Slam was up for lynch I tried to stop it of course. But it's not the only time I was active. | ||
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If I rescind my Grack scum read, that leads me to believe that SL and Kelsier must be scum. Which would mean the top three lynches were all....scum. With all three scum inactive at the end. That's impossible, right? | ||
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On June 26 2019 13:54 raynpelikoneet wrote: Maybe Pandain can make a big post to explain why Slam was so town that he'd rather lynch his 95% townread over him. I just didn't like the votes. If scum had had even two people active near EoD they would have been able to lead a lynch off him with the votes this close. It's obvious now mafia was just extremely inactive and there was likely only one scum active, if at all. | ||
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On June 26 2019 15:24 raynpelikoneet wrote: Another thing that bugs me about Pandain is that he still, after lynch, calls Grackaroni scum but Grack was one of the few people he tried to get on board onto another lynch. Like in what fucking world does pandain have more than 0% chance of convincing scum!grack to do what he wants if it's to switch from town to mafia? idk, maybe it's too insane to be scum, difinitely doesn't make any sense in any world. Yeah I think he's scum but it's not conclusive. Maybe 60-65% chance. Decent chance he's town and helps me lynch another scum read. Anyway I think I changed my mind on grack. | ||
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On June 26 2019 15:50 raynpelikoneet wrote: Like literally, how is it better if let's say you, hf and grack vote for me and i flip town than if slam had flipped town? Because Slam was completely AFK. And no one even posted anything regarding him, so it would not benefit town at all It would basically be like RNGing someone at the start of the day to die. At least you might be able to get some associative reads from your death. And again, in my mind Slam was nearly certain town. You are probably town. There's a big difference. I will always choose to lynch a "probable town" over a "near-certain" town, all other things held equal. | ||
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On June 26 2019 15:58 raynpelikoneet wrote: you too, what the fuck do you gain in regards of information in case i flip town? Dude I don't fucking know I didn't want to lynch you at all I never looked into it. But obviously you are active and I know people have made comments on you (jock,eversince, at the very least). there's at least something there. you were not even a person i wanted to flip | ||
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i would always try to lynch someone other than slam in that case | ||
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On June 26 2019 16:00 raynpelikoneet wrote: it was very clear i was at some point. it's very clear you were... what? | ||
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On June 26 2019 04:12 Fecalfeast wrote: vote count day 1 Alakaslam: (3) eversince, holyflare, Trfel Shapelog: (2) raynpelikoneet, Eversince: (0) KelsierSC: (2) Grackaroni: (0) Raynpelikoneet: (1) Pandain: (0) Not Voting: Alakaslam Shapelog KelsierSC Strong town reads on Rayn and Jock. That leads the last four possible scum to be Grack, Eywa, Shape, and Kelsier. I'm going to move Grack to town because besides that god-awful claim he's been pretty towny. Slam made a post on Eywa after he died that I don't think he would have made if Eywa was mafia. On June 26 2019 06:08 Alakaslam wrote: Mindmeld eywa a little. Was early at this point though. Even though its guarded in conditioners, I don't think Slam picks a mafia post to just +1 to. So that leaves Shape and Kelsier. I'm going to say that all of Slam, Shape, and Kelsier were all mafia and that ironically we were always going to lynch mafia. | ||
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On June 26 2019 16:03 raynpelikoneet wrote: a person you wanted to flip Objectively not true, I was defending you against HF and Eywa. I'll just repeat it one last time. I had a strong town read on you. I had a near-certain town read on Slam. Slam was AFK and could have no associative tales, you were active and had many people interacting with you. Your death would be more meaningful. With one minute to go I tried to change the lynch to you because it was better than Slam. If you don't believe this, that's okay. I get that it's suspicious, it's why I have half a mind to just sort of AFK and let myself die. Honestly if I was you guys I would always 100% lynch me. On June 26 2019 16:06 Eversince wrote: I got around 45 minutes before dealine. Just died trying to figure out for sure where my vote should go. You toss Rayn vote out because "any other option is better"?! I pushed Kelsier. I pushed Grack. I pushed them hard. Rayn was not a lynch I wanted, it was something desperate I tried to do literally (literally!) last minute because I was near-certain Slam was town and yes, in that case, any other option is better. | ||
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On June 26 2019 16:15 raynpelikoneet wrote: And i am, and was, asking you to explain why, in case i flip town? Many many people have interacted with you. That is not the case with Slam. At least with your death we could have gotten some reads on Eywa or Jock or other people. | ||
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On June 26 2019 16:14 raynpelikoneet wrote: What do you think about the fact i made almost the exact claim last game for the exact same reasons Grack did? I was town. If Grack is mafia why doesn't Grack claim just "blue" which would be understandable from town pov aswell and keeps him alive better that doctor claim? If Grack is mafia why does Grack fakeclaim DOCTOR in a situation -- as you put it, "when under no pressure"? What mafia motivation there EVER is to make that sort of claim? Having played mafia with Grack it's very very easily something he could have done. Like HF said, it's very unlikely there's a doctor in the first place, and if there was, mafia is pretty much screwed unless they can out the doctor. Mafia is screwed if there is a doctor because he can always protect HF who is a confirmed townie. Mafia always loses. In this (unlikely) case, trading a mafia for knowing who the doctor is - is not a bad play. If there is no doctor(most likely), then Grack can do a free fakeclaim. | ||
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On June 26 2019 16:18 raynpelikoneet wrote: can you give an example? Rayn I'm going to be honest with you. You may not like it but I don't like hiding or pretending stuff. I never looked into it in detail. As I have said repeatedly, you were (literally) a last minute lynch You were not a person that I heavily analyzed and thought I am confident I could go and find examples now and I'm sure I could find them, but sharing that would not be an accurate representation of my thinking at the time of the lynch. All I knew is that many people have interacted with you so that I thought at least there might be some information that can be gleamed. For instance, maybe Eywa is more or less suspicious for pushing you. Maybe Jock looks better because he is defending you against HF, a confirmed town, when he could easily as scum sort of agree with you and put suspicion on rayn who is up for lynch. I play by instinct sometimes, especially in these EoD scenarios. It's attested to by the fact that nearly every EoD I try and lead a counter-lynch or push someone else. You know this from my play as town. When I voted to lynch you with literally 30 seconds to go, it was not based on a detailed analysis of "oh we will know x and y and z and because of that x and z." It was rather "Rayn is probably town but maybe not, and he at least has been active with other people so maybe we can find some information" | ||
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He's confirmed town though so that information is not really useful. We already know HF's alignment | ||
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On June 26 2019 16:29 Eversince wrote: He's confirmed town so ignore what informations he made? Then start a shitfight with Rayn about how no one interacted with him.. Right after you ignore all that came from the case from HF is not relevent. No you're misunderstanding. I said: we might be able to get information on other people's alignments based on rayn's death. I pointed out eywa and jock. You then asked me, "aren't you ignoring HF's case" My response is: We don't need any information on HF's alignment. He is already confirmed town. If Rayn is town, great, HF was wrong. If Rayn is mafia - great, HF was right. It's not meaningful info because he's already town. | ||
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On June 26 2019 16:28 raynpelikoneet wrote: This does make some sense, i mean in a way that you could actually think this as town. Some things: - While HF is confirmed town he can still be wrong and he is defi-fucking-nitely wrong there - It's not unlikely there is a doctor because the setup already playerwise is missing 2 townies to standard 10v3, aka it's heavily mafia favored, there is actually VERY likely to be a protective role aka vet/doc/jailer - Mafia is not screwed if there is a doctor, who cares if HF lives to D2? Mafia can just assume doc will protect HF (which the doc should unless HF is throwing) and shoot HF N2. - Trading a mafia for D1 claimed doc is terrible play, also if grack is mafia and there is actually a real doctor they should never counter-claim, just protect HF and then you TRADED MAFIA FOR NO DOCTOR on D2!!!!!! That's even more terrible play. 1. Yeah 100% true, in fact he might be even more deadly because he's town so people are likely to believe him when he's wrong. 2. And sure, there might be a protective role. It's likely imo there's a veteran or jailor or something. I just don't think it's medic for reasons stated. 3. I don't know, if I was mafia I would always be terrifed of shooting HF because he is always the most likely medic save every time. Not just day 1. 4. I didn't think about that. Would be good idea. | ||
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On June 26 2019 16:37 Eversince wrote: Okok, to make sure I get it. Lynch anyone other than Slam (townread). Yes Ignore the fact Rayn might actually be t!Rayn Not ignore the fact, just realistically acknowledge that I am more confident Slam is town than Rayn. If he gets mislynch the information is still useful than actually trying to kill mafia? No, you're either misunderstanding me or understanding from your own perspective. This is your interpetation because you voted Slam and thought there was a chance he's mafia. From my perspective, they are both likely town. Assuming that's true, it would still be better to lynch Rayn because that information gleaned from his death would be at least marginally more useful than a slam lynch. Pand I was trying to be nice but I'm super sure your mafia. | ||
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On June 26 2019 16:40 Eversince wrote: I'm tunneling on him so bad but I think he is scum right now. Well you've been doing that since early day 1 so it's not anything new ![]() | ||
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On June 26 2019 16:43 Eversince wrote: Pand, I'm going to let this rest. We have bunches of time left before another lynch. I'm tunneling real bad. What's your current reads? Oh my god this is like talking to bugs last game. I have literally talked about this in the past page. I am not the type of person to repeat information. | ||
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On June 26 2019 16:08 Pandain wrote: Strong town reads on Rayn and Jock. That leads the last four possible scum to be Grack, Eywa, Shape, and Kelsier. I'm going to move Grack to town because besides that god-awful claim he's been pretty towny. Slam made a post on Eywa after he died that I don't think he would have made if Eywa was mafia. Even though its guarded in conditioners, I don't think Slam picks a mafia post to just +1 to. So that leaves Shape and Kelsier. I'm going to say that all of Slam, Shape, and Kelsier were all mafia and that ironically we were always going to lynch mafia. I think either of Shape or Kelsier should be vig'd and then we lynch the other one. | ||
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But I agree that regardless of whoever get's vigi'd the other one should be lynched. | ||
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On June 26 2019 14:48 raynpelikoneet wrote: If there is a vigilante btw they should absolutely always shoot Shapelog. He flips mafia, cool, he flips town lynch Kelsier because he has to be mafia, then Pandain and jock become pretty much hard cleared and the last mafia HAS to be in me and Eywa. You will have enough days to lynch both. The same is true but if we shoot Kelsier first. If Kelsier is town then shape should always be lynched. , then you become pretty hard cleared etc... Anyway I think it's the same regardless I don't care who they shoot. | ||
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On June 26 2019 16:56 raynpelikoneet wrote: Who is mafia if Shapelog is mafia and Kelsier is town and we shoot Kelsier and lynch Shapelog? Who do we lynch after that to 100% win the game? Eywa and Grack, whatever order. town never loses. | ||
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Okay yes if people are idiotic and lynch me or think that somehow jock is mafia people can lose. But in your argument, what happens if SL is mafia and Kelsier is town? Same exact scenario | ||
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Both SL and Kelsier will be dead by the end of tomorrow. At that point, our plans are identicical. And we both agree they should be vig/shot. | ||
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1. We Shoot Shape. A. He's mafia. Great. Game not solved but we are likely to win. b. He's Town. KSC is mafia and we lynch him. Game is solved here. Jock and I are confirmed town. 2. We Shoot KSC a. He's Mafia. Game is solved here. Jock and I are confirmed town. B. He's town. Shape is mafia. Great. Game not solved but we are likely to win. Is this right or what am I missing. | ||
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On June 26 2019 17:57 raynpelikoneet wrote: jock you should just believe me when i say grack is not mafia. there is simply no possibility of him being mafia. you also said exactly this last game and grack was mafia soooooooo Quote: "Grack is the most townie guy in the whole thread" | ||
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On June 26 2019 18:15 Jockmcplop wrote: I just can't see him flat out killing a teammate with two other wagons available. Its not the correct play at all imo. Its vaguely possible but.... no. If trfel and slam are both mafia, then at least one of kels/shapelog isn't and that gives him an out. Also when I pushed him as to why he was voting him he basically said "I don't know." I feel like if he was bussing he would have approached that differently. | ||
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On June 26 2019 18:35 Holyflare wrote: It's not particularly a narrative. I've found things in your filter that contradict what you are saying you thought and I'm just not acknowledging the inferior version that doesn't quite make sense that you're talking about after the fact. This sentiment is exactly what you had last time with me. I ended up being town. I would address your points but (1) I already have and (2) I don't think you would even pay attention to them | ||
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Grack and Ewya are null to slightly town. Keslier and Shape are likely mafia. | ||
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If Grack is mafia, there's a non-zero chance that the last scum could be Eywa for instance. | ||
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Honestly the slam post on Eywa puts me against thinking he's scum, which is why I'm pretty certain there's at least one (if not both) scum between Kelsier and Shape. What did you think about that post? | ||
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Also making Grack null. | ||
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It actually doesn't even matter if you got shot or not. What I didn't realize from your claim is that you're essentially town-confirmed (or at least you will be later on once all roles are claimed tomorrow or the day after). This is because we know for a fact there are three blue roles. Once three people claim and no others claim, we know the three are deifnitely town. | ||
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On June 27 2019 06:10 Holyflare wrote: We're all friendly here and slam likes playing mafia. Bet the QT is like: Slam: yeah I love playing mafia but I have to go for 2 days with no wifi please don't let me die slam goes up for lynch Pandain: damn don't want to make slam feel sad yo lolol | ||
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On June 27 2019 06:23 Eversince wrote: You claimed you vote Rayn becuase anyone other than Grack gives better information. We know that is false now. Don't change your story. I feel like you don't even read my posts. This is why it's frustrating talking to you. On June 26 2019 06:55 Pandain wrote: I'm completely null on shape. I was certain that slam was town, and even if I voted SL it would still be a slam lynch. So i was trying to get you to vote rayn, where there was a small chance he was scum. On June 26 2019 06:57 Pandain wrote: 5% chance (rayn) is better than 0% chance (slam) And imo Slam was even worse than a regular town lynch, because we would have gotten no information out of a slam lynch if he was town. On June 26 2019 15:52 Pandain wrote: And again, in my mind Slam was nearly certain town. You are probably town. There's a big difference. I will always choose to lynch a "probable town" over a "near-certain" town, all other things held equal. I think there's like 10 more posts like this. I found these in a minute. Are you just choosing to spout out whatever comes out of your mouth without fact-checking or is it unintentional? | ||
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On June 27 2019 06:17 Grackaroni wrote: I believe you but I think you were wrong to think that because the lynch was lead by confirmed town HF. Doesn't mean he's right at all. In fact HF is usually wrong. Case in point: his two biggest scum reads are (were?) me and Rayn. Extra lol @ thinking rayn is scum. | ||
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On June 27 2019 06:33 Holyflare wrote: Pandain what exactly are your reads now? Extremely extremely town read on Grack that will never change unless/until more people claim. So that leaves Shape/Kelsier/Eywa/Jock for last possible scum. Don't think the last two are scum, but it's possible. First two options are afkers so it's hard so it's basically a coin flip maybe between the two. Honestly though I haven't done a heavy enough analysis to choose which one I will definitely pick, so I will analyze all the four tomorrow hopefully. | ||
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On June 27 2019 16:48 Holyflare wrote: Pandain + x! A real image of HF desperately climbing through his tunenl + Show Spoiler + ![]() | ||
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There's no way we lose since 100% the last two mafia are in there and we can afford two mislynches. I don't see any world where Rayn or ES is mafia. 0%. From your perspective, if Shape is modkilled, there's still no way we lose even if he is town and we lynch another townie. That will leave me, Jock, and Eywa as possible scum. It will be 5 vs 2 and we can afford one mislynch, meaning we can go through me, jock, and eywa with no problem even if we mislynch first. | ||
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On June 27 2019 17:14 Holyflare wrote: You say words like guaranteed victory a lot by just arbitrarily confirming people. ES is most active player + voted slam. 100% town. You are confirmed. 100% town Rayn is extremely active and genuinely contributing good poitns. Could have easily been pushing me. His evolution towards me seems genuine (going from mafia to town). 99% town. Trfel voted Slam decisive vote + if he was trying to bus he could have done it way better than just saying "Idk" during the vote. 90% town. Those are great group of near-confirmed towns to work for. I think if any of Eywa, Shape, Kelsier, or Jock are the last blue role they should claim. If one of them are the last blue role, there is actually a 0% chance we lose this even if Trfel is scum. | ||
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On June 27 2019 17:19 raynpelikoneet wrote: why is jock on your list of mafia candidates? He's not my first pick at all. He's just a possibility. I'm saying if we lynch through these 4 we will never lose. | ||
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On June 27 2019 17:28 Jockmcplop wrote: Alright then if we're never lynching grack put him with hf and we have an even bigger chance of winning. I'm shit at figuring out roleclaims and what they mean, mostly they just confuse me, so in every game I play I have a similar conversation to this at some point. If y'all are sure grack is absolutely confirmed town then yeah I'll go along with it just out of ignorance. We know there are three blues. HF is one. That means if everyone who has a blue claims and we have three total, those three people are confirmed. Because the host has confirmed there are three. Does that make sense? Grack is not confirmed "yet" per se. But once the last blue is revealed (it always happens sooner rather than later) we will be able to know he is either telling the truth (3 claims total) or someone is lying (more than 3 blue claims) That's also why if you or kelsier or shape or eywa are blue you should claim. Because you will be the last confirmed town and there's no way we will lose. | ||
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On June 27 2019 17:23 raynpelikoneet wrote: Okay which of those other three can he be mafia with and why? If Jock is mafia Eywa probably is. Almost certainly not with Kelsier. Also unlikely with shape, though I won't rule it out. I would rather lynch Trfel than believe a Jock-Kelsier team. | ||
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On June 27 2019 17:43 raynpelikoneet wrote: So like you tell us this, but you thought Grack is mafia after his claim even during N1? Want to explain? I just didn't realize it. I actually post when I realize it. On June 27 2019 06:10 Pandain wrote: Brilliant Grack. It actually doesn't even matter if you got shot or not. What I didn't realize from your claim is that you're essentially town-confirmed (or at least you will be later on once all roles are claimed tomorrow or the day after). This is because we know for a fact there are three blue roles. Once three people claim and no others claim, we know the three are deifnitely town. | ||
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On June 27 2019 17:50 raynpelikoneet wrote: I know, you magically realised it right after someone absorbed a shot. It's like almost way too convenient. What you just said has been said for ages but only after there is a no-kill you are able to realise it. And also after that, jock magically appears in your "possible scum pile". When you should have no reason to call him mafia over lets say me. I don't think it was ever said. I still don't think jock is scum. He's just less Towny than trfel es or you. | ||
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On June 27 2019 17:56 raynpelikoneet wrote: Not in those exact words but yes it was. Why am i not mafia with Kelsier? Why is my whole play not mafia if Kelsier is mafia? No I don't think it was ever said. Maybe I missed it but honestly the thought never came across my mind. Why are you not mafia with kelsier? I don't think you are mafia with ANYONE. | ||
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On June 27 2019 17:57 Holyflare wrote: Dumb though. He just says he was drawing a shot and is vt and then what? I don't understand what you are saying here | ||
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On June 27 2019 18:05 Holyflare wrote: No idea :D I do think it's much more likely to just be pandain shapelog since if shape was town I'd think it would be a much better pile to jump on if I was mafia trying to save my buddy. He did only have 2 minutes though so not really sure he could have swayed people. That's why pandain vote on you is so ridiculously opportune. There's no way he goes out of his way to lynch his town read (you) for information™ over just slam who he said was a good lynch or shapelog who 2 people were already voting (you, his town read, and grack his mafia read so lots more info!). This means he knew thread sentiment. He knew I could try and be swayed and he knew I was on his partner so he goes for the most opportune switch possible. Dude you guys don't fucking read. It's not just about information and I would never lynch someone just based on information. It was the fact that at the end of the day I was certain slam was town. I was not certain about Rayn. | ||
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On June 27 2019 18:16 raynpelikoneet wrote: the problem is you wanted to lynch me (town read) over shapelog (null read). and you have yet to explain why. you pushed all the other wagons except for shapelog, and i dont know why, since i was your townread and shapelog was not. I would definitely have voted shape. Problem is that even if I did he would not have had enough votes to be lynched because it would be tied 3-3 with slam reaching 3 first | ||
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On June 27 2019 18:17 Holyflare wrote: That's exactly what I do when the only person providing an alternative narrative is the guy I'm calling mafia and I just think your version is a lot less plausible than the really obvious one. Sorry Well you were completely wrong last game with the same exact logic and if I ever flip you will be completely wrong this time again. This is your biggest flaw. You get crazy tunneled on specific people and actively refuse to see any counter evidence. I'm going to ignore you now becuase thank god no one is really listening to you besides Trfel. | ||
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On June 27 2019 18:26 raynpelikoneet wrote: why did you try to convince HF to vote for me over Shapelog? Did HF ever say Shapelog is town? Even if he did, ans i know he was possibly moving onto me, why did you try to convince him of lynching your townread over a null read (based on your principles you showed on Slam if we assume you're town here). listen bud I pushed hard for kelsier and grack for 47 hours and 59 minutes of the first day. The last minute (even the last 30 seconds) I just tried to find If I had made a post like "want to lynch shape" when HF had actively been against lynching shape (case in point: he decided to go for a complete null read in slam) it would never work. You can say that I was trying to defend slam because I'm mafia. That's fine logic. But don't say stuff like "you could have done something else" because in my perspective, where I am 100% sure slam is town, I did the only things i could. | ||
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On June 27 2019 18:09 Holyflare wrote: You're saying grack is confirmed town because regardless of if he got shot or not he wouldn't claim as mafia? What happens when you find out end game that no shot happened, grack rescinds his claim day 2 and claims vt just trying to draw a shot and there's a jk or something? You just jump to him being town and don't think of any possible mafia strategy that they absolutely need to have in a 3 confirmed town game with a named townie and 1 mafia dead. grack is literally never mafia here. it's way too likely there is another protective role that could counterclaim. | ||
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On June 27 2019 18:32 raynpelikoneet wrote: that doesnt answer the question. where was HF ever heavily against lynching Shape? On June 26 2019 04:17 Holyflare wrote: Just quote your post where you scum read shapelog because I don't agree with Rayn's. Read this. He actively went against voting shape. | ||
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also to be frank no one on the slam lynch can take credit for it because it was deliberately a "i have no idea what to do so lynch someone afk" | ||
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On June 27 2019 18:40 raynpelikoneet wrote: which is exactly why everyone can take credit for it. everyone who voted for slam could have just done whatever the fuck you did and be "townie" because "wooooo we get no info for a afk lynch". Ok sure HF is town, but we already knew that because he's confirmed. Doesn't make the play good. | ||
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If Shape still hasn't posted by end of day and will be modkilled I will change my vote to Kelsier/Koshi (because for reasons ive already stated we win 100% of the time if they are both dead by N2). | ||
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On June 28 2019 04:55 raynpelikoneet wrote: looool everyone was basically right D1 except for eywa ![]() Nicely played. I think this is the first time ever that the top three lynches were all mafia. Still impressive even though all mafia was AFK. Shapelog was actually pretty active the first half of day 1 before he completely dissapeared. Did he say what happened at all or did he just go off the grid? | ||
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