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[M][N]MiniFeast I - Page 57

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Eversince
Profile Joined October 2015
Philippines2301 Posts
June 27 2019 07:46 GMT
#1121
Ok, since my internet sucks wildly.ran into this problem once already.. I'll put a vote done now. I'm totally fine with Shape lynch,

##vote Shapelog
Life's too short to be black and white. Make the world tie-dye!
Eversince
Profile Joined October 2015
Philippines2301 Posts
June 27 2019 07:46 GMT
#1122
On June 27 2019 16:43 Holyflare wrote:
I think both shape and kelsier are town


Ok, who then?
Life's too short to be black and white. Make the world tie-dye!
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30774 Posts
June 27 2019 07:48 GMT
#1123
Pandain + x!
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
June 27 2019 07:50 GMT
#1124
yeah but i dont think X can be anyone except for shapelog so i think you need to go further.
table for two on a tv tray
Eversince
Profile Joined October 2015
Philippines2301 Posts
June 27 2019 07:51 GMT
#1125
Og goodness I'm I going to have to continue to waffle Pand? Give me some reasons becuase I'm so over wasting time on it. Shape/Koshi/Eywa/Pand can't all be scum!
Life's too short to be black and white. Make the world tie-dye!
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
June 27 2019 07:56 GMT
#1126
On June 27 2019 16:48 Holyflare wrote:
Pandain + x!


A real image of HF desperately climbing through his tunenl

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
June 27 2019 08:06 GMT
#1127
tunenl sounds like a nice place
table for two on a tv tray
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
June 27 2019 08:09 GMT
#1128
From my perspective all we need to do is lynch through Jock, Shape, Kelsier, and Eywa. Shape and Kelsier being first on the list.

There's no way we lose since 100% the last two mafia are in there and we can afford two mislynches. I don't see any world where Rayn or ES is mafia. 0%.

From your perspective, if Shape is modkilled, there's still no way we lose even if he is town and we lynch another townie. That will leave me, Jock, and Eywa as possible scum. It will be 5 vs 2 and we can afford one mislynch, meaning we can go through me, jock, and eywa with no problem even if we mislynch first.
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
June 27 2019 08:10 GMT
#1129
If Shape is town he can actually gurantee a town victory by being modkilled, funnily enough.
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30774 Posts
June 27 2019 08:14 GMT
#1130
You say words like guaranteed victory a lot by just arbitrarily confirming people.
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
June 27 2019 08:19 GMT
#1131
On June 26 2019 19:12 Pandain wrote:
In my opinion, Eversince is practically confirmed town. Jock, Rayn, and Trefel are 98% town.

Grack and Ewya are null to slightly town.

Keslier and Shape are likely mafia.

why is jock on your list of mafia candidates?
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
June 27 2019 08:20 GMT
#1132
And why is Eywa not?
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
June 27 2019 08:21 GMT
#1133
On June 27 2019 17:09 Pandain wrote:
From my perspective all we need to do is lynch through Jock, Shape, Kelsier, and Eywa. Shape and Kelsier being first on the list.

table for two on a tv tray
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
June 27 2019 08:21 GMT
#1134
On June 27 2019 17:14 Holyflare wrote:
You say words like guaranteed victory a lot by just arbitrarily confirming people.


ES is most active player + voted slam. 100% town.
You are confirmed. 100% town
Rayn is extremely active and genuinely contributing good poitns. Could have easily been pushing me. His evolution towards me seems genuine (going from mafia to town). 99% town.
Trfel voted Slam decisive vote + if he was trying to bus he could have done it way better than just saying "Idk" during the vote. 90% town.


Those are great group of near-confirmed towns to work for.

I think if any of Eywa, Shape, Kelsier, or Jock are the last blue role they should claim.

If one of them are the last blue role, there is actually a 0% chance we lose this even if Trfel is scum.
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
June 27 2019 08:22 GMT
#1135
Oh Eywa was there, sorry i read in a hurry.
Still, why is jock there? You called him almost confirmed town earlier.
table for two on a tv tray
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
June 27 2019 08:22 GMT
#1136
On June 27 2019 17:19 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2019 19:12 Pandain wrote:
In my opinion, Eversince is practically confirmed town. Jock, Rayn, and Trefel are 98% town.

Grack and Ewya are null to slightly town.

Keslier and Shape are likely mafia.

why is jock on your list of mafia candidates?


He's not my first pick at all. He's just a possibility. I'm saying if we lynch through these 4 we will never lose.
Jockmcplop
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
United Kingdom9614 Posts
June 27 2019 08:23 GMT
#1137
I don't think there's a guaranteed victory here at all, but its close to that. I think treating ES and trfel as 'probably town' and putting them on the back end of the lynch list and then just working our way through it, although simple and kinda boring, gives town the best odds of winning here (unless something changes with ES or trfel that gives us a good solid reason to suspect one of them).

So the lynch list is (in order of how likely we are to be able to lynch people):

Shapelog/koshi
Eywa/Pandain/me
rayn/grack
ES/trfel

obvs hf isn't in there.

We have to get more than half way down this list with only mislynches before we can lose, and that's with successful mafia kp each time. The only possible issue there is a grack/rayn scum team and that looks incredibly unlikely to me.


RIP Meatloaf <3
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
June 27 2019 08:23 GMT
#1138
On June 27 2019 17:22 Pandain wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2019 17:19 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On June 26 2019 19:12 Pandain wrote:
In my opinion, Eversince is practically confirmed town. Jock, Rayn, and Trefel are 98% town.

Grack and Ewya are null to slightly town.

Keslier and Shape are likely mafia.

why is jock on your list of mafia candidates?


He's not my first pick at all. He's just a possibility. I'm saying if we lynch through these 4 we will never lose.

Okay which of those other three can he be mafia with and why?
table for two on a tv tray
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
June 27 2019 08:24 GMT
#1139
We are never lynching Grack. I would lynch Trfel beforehand.
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
June 27 2019 08:25 GMT
#1140
jock why the fuck do you have grackaroni in your lynch list? it has annoyed me since forever.
table for two on a tv tray
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