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On June 27 2019 15:04 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Like i am where i was at the end of night. I don't think pandain can be mafia with kelsier. i think at least one of kelsier / shapelog has to be mafia. pandain can be mafia with shapelog. eywa can be mafia with both of those. i dont think pandain + eywa is possible. i can revisit jock, but he cannot be mafia with kelsier and he is currently voting for shapelog so that doesn't seem like a great scumpair either so idk if there is any point in me revisiting him rn. Bleh, this makes sense and is probably right, I just want to have some fun  And what's a mafia game without paranoia?
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On June 27 2019 15:07 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2019 15:04 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Like i am where i was at the end of night. I don't think pandain can be mafia with kelsier. i think at least one of kelsier / shapelog has to be mafia. pandain can be mafia with shapelog. eywa can be mafia with both of those. i dont think pandain + eywa is possible. i can revisit jock, but he cannot be mafia with kelsier and he is currently voting for shapelog so that doesn't seem like a great scumpair either so idk if there is any point in me revisiting him rn. Bleh, this makes sense and is probably right, I just want to have some fun And what's a mafia game without paranoia?
Solve game. Be Happy  .
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I think I'm ok with this. Throw Pand a bone. Kels(Koshi) is just mia. Kill Shape/Ewya.
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I still can't completely discount the possibility of KelsierSC and Pandain being mafia together though?On June 26 2019 04:28 Pandain wrote:
I would rather lynch rayn than slam. In the time approaching End of Day, this is the first time that Pandain pushes anyone other than KelsierSC. Note the time, two minutes to End of Day. There's no time to try pushing Shapelog or one of the other wagons. Given the vote count before Pandain's vote switch to raynpelikoneet, as follows:
vote count day 1
Alakaslam: (3) eversince, holyflare, Trfel
Shapelog: (2) raynpelikoneet, grackaroni grackaroni
Eversince: (0) grackaroni, eywa-
KelsierSC: (2) Pandain, Jockmcplop, jockmcplop eversince pandain
Grackaroni: (0) Holyflare Jockmcplop Pandain
Raynpelikoneet: (1) Holyflare eywa- eywa-holyflare
Pandain: (0) Eywa-
Not Voting:
Alakaslam
Shapelog
KelsierSC
Who could Pandain vote for, if he's trying to save Alakaslam at all costs? Voting for Shapelog would put Shapelog at three votes, and Alakaslam would still be lynched as he was at three votes first. Voting for raynpelikoneet only puts him at two votes, but there's a chance that he could get Holyflare to switch votes, which would give the raynpelikoneet wagon the best chance of saving Alakaslam. And there wasn't time to try pushing both raynpelikoneet and Shapelog.
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Darn Eywa, I'm sorry I've miss-spelled your name half the game. Rude of me.
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On June 27 2019 15:14 Trfel wrote:I still can't completely discount the possibility of KelsierSC and Pandain being mafia together though? In the time approaching End of Day, this is the first time that Pandain pushes anyone other than KelsierSC. Note the time, two minutes to End of Day. There's no time to try pushing Shapelog or one of the other wagons. Given the vote count before Pandain's vote switch to raynpelikoneet, as follows:
vote count day 1 Alakaslam: (3) eversince, holyflare, Trfel Shapelog: (2) raynpelikoneet, grackaroni grackaroni Eversince: (0) grackaroni, eywa-KelsierSC: (2) Pandain, Jockmcplop, jockmcplop eversince pandain Grackaroni: (0) Holyflare Jockmcplop PandainRaynpelikoneet: (1) Holyflare eywa- eywa- holyflarePandain: (0) Eywa-Not Voting:Alakaslam Shapelog KelsierSC
Who could Pandain vote for, if he's trying to save Alakaslam at all costs? Voting for Shapelog would put Shapelog at three votes, and Alakaslam would still be lynched as he was at three votes first. Voting for raynpelikoneet only puts him at two votes, but there's a chance that he could get Holyflare to switch votes, which would give the raynpelikoneet wagon the best chance of saving Alakaslam. And there wasn't time to try pushing both raynpelikoneet and Shapelog.
Kels and Shape team could move votes. They can't move together without outing themselves.
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On June 27 2019 15:17 Eversince wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2019 15:14 Trfel wrote:I still can't completely discount the possibility of KelsierSC and Pandain being mafia together though? On June 26 2019 04:28 Pandain wrote:
I would rather lynch rayn than slam. In the time approaching End of Day, this is the first time that Pandain pushes anyone other than KelsierSC. Note the time, two minutes to End of Day. There's no time to try pushing Shapelog or one of the other wagons. Given the vote count before Pandain's vote switch to raynpelikoneet, as follows:
vote count day 1 Alakaslam: (3) eversince, holyflare, Trfel Shapelog: (2) raynpelikoneet, grackaroni grackaroni Eversince: (0) grackaroni, eywa-KelsierSC: (2) Pandain, Jockmcplop, jockmcplop eversince pandain Grackaroni: (0) Holyflare Jockmcplop PandainRaynpelikoneet: (1) Holyflare eywa- eywa- holyflarePandain: (0) Eywa-Not Voting:Alakaslam Shapelog KelsierSC
Who could Pandain vote for, if he's trying to save Alakaslam at all costs? Voting for Shapelog would put Shapelog at three votes, and Alakaslam would still be lynched as he was at three votes first. Voting for raynpelikoneet only puts him at two votes, but there's a chance that he could get Holyflare to switch votes, which would give the raynpelikoneet wagon the best chance of saving Alakaslam. And there wasn't time to try pushing both raynpelikoneet and Shapelog. Kels and Shape team could move votes. They can't move together without outing themselves. Sorry, I'm not sure what you mean by this? KelsierSC and Shapelog were presumably MIA and couldn't vote?
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On June 27 2019 15:04 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2019 15:00 raynpelikoneet wrote:On June 27 2019 14:57 Trfel wrote:Hi raynpelikoneet  Yeah, that all makes enough sense anyway (@everything since my last post). On June 26 2019 14:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Like do you completely understand the argument why at least one of Kelsier / Shapelog has to be mafia? If you don't agree with it can you please show me a pair who cannot put their votes onto either Shape / Kels and save slam not being outright caught? Jumping way back to this. What about Pandain and Eywa-? Eywa- wasn't present at End of Day, and Pandain did everything possible to try and save Alakaslam already. I think they would have consolidated earlier, or at least kept their options open for consolidation in case it comes to Slam (i think Pandain might have been possible too maybe in some world) being lynch target.I have played as mafia with Pandain and he is not a stupid mafia player, idk it's probably best put that i dont really see them having any mafia plan together. My take is that Eywa- wouldn't have a plan and just push you without thinking ahead. Heck, I probably wouldn't have thought that far ahead if I were mafia. Pandain can, Eywa- feels like the stubborn player who would do their own thing as mafia. I get what you're saying, and it's not super likely, but I feel like it's not outside the realm of possibility.
You don't need to have two "planners", only one, and the other one to agree on a strategy. Last game in yearly finnish mafia champs we had a player pretty much like eywa and they were still capable of understanding and following plans in mafia qt. Eywa is definitely active enough to do that.
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Trfel as for your Pandain + Kelsier team. I already posted this:
On June 26 2019 14:55 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Well do you seriously think there is a chance Pandain bussed Kelsier basically all D1 just into hard-defending his 100% afk scummate Slam?????
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I think that's 100% not the play Pandain makes as mafia in case mafia was slam/pandain/kelsier. It's like... absolutely retarded, you're just shooting yourself in both legs and arms and head at the same time..
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Bleh I've always been garbage at associative reads. Thanks, that does make sense. And logically means I should probably vote for Shapelog, bleh, I'll sleep on it...
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On June 27 2019 15:24 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2019 15:17 Eversince wrote:On June 27 2019 15:14 Trfel wrote:I still can't completely discount the possibility of KelsierSC and Pandain being mafia together though? On June 26 2019 04:28 Pandain wrote:
I would rather lynch rayn than slam. In the time approaching End of Day, this is the first time that Pandain pushes anyone other than KelsierSC. Note the time, two minutes to End of Day. There's no time to try pushing Shapelog or one of the other wagons. Given the vote count before Pandain's vote switch to raynpelikoneet, as follows:
vote count day 1 Alakaslam: (3) eversince, holyflare, Trfel Shapelog: (2) raynpelikoneet, grackaroni grackaroni Eversince: (0) grackaroni, eywa-KelsierSC: (2) Pandain, Jockmcplop, jockmcplop eversince pandain Grackaroni: (0) Holyflare Jockmcplop PandainRaynpelikoneet: (1) Holyflare eywa- eywa- holyflarePandain: (0) Eywa-Not Voting:Alakaslam Shapelog KelsierSC
Who could Pandain vote for, if he's trying to save Alakaslam at all costs? Voting for Shapelog would put Shapelog at three votes, and Alakaslam would still be lynched as he was at three votes first. Voting for raynpelikoneet only puts him at two votes, but there's a chance that he could get Holyflare to switch votes, which would give the raynpelikoneet wagon the best chance of saving Alakaslam. And there wasn't time to try pushing both raynpelikoneet and Shapelog. Kels and Shape team could move votes. They can't move together without outing themselves. Sorry, I'm not sure what you mean by this? KelsierSC and Shapelog were presumably MIA and couldn't vote?
m!Pand switches off Slam, m!Kels pulls off Slam. Your entire team just got dedicated to moving the lynch off Slam. Town lynches one of you. Even with a town on the wagon, hard to put the rest together?
(I'm bad at analisis so excuse me if I come off at short, please I don't mean too.)
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On June 27 2019 15:31 Eversince wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2019 15:24 Trfel wrote:On June 27 2019 15:17 Eversince wrote:On June 27 2019 15:14 Trfel wrote:I still can't completely discount the possibility of KelsierSC and Pandain being mafia together though? On June 26 2019 04:28 Pandain wrote:
I would rather lynch rayn than slam. In the time approaching End of Day, this is the first time that Pandain pushes anyone other than KelsierSC. Note the time, two minutes to End of Day. There's no time to try pushing Shapelog or one of the other wagons. Given the vote count before Pandain's vote switch to raynpelikoneet, as follows:
vote count day 1 Alakaslam: (3) eversince, holyflare, Trfel Shapelog: (2) raynpelikoneet, grackaroni grackaroni Eversince: (0) grackaroni, eywa-KelsierSC: (2) Pandain, Jockmcplop, jockmcplop eversince pandain Grackaroni: (0) Holyflare Jockmcplop PandainRaynpelikoneet: (1) Holyflare eywa- eywa- holyflarePandain: (0) Eywa-Not Voting:Alakaslam Shapelog KelsierSC
Who could Pandain vote for, if he's trying to save Alakaslam at all costs? Voting for Shapelog would put Shapelog at three votes, and Alakaslam would still be lynched as he was at three votes first. Voting for raynpelikoneet only puts him at two votes, but there's a chance that he could get Holyflare to switch votes, which would give the raynpelikoneet wagon the best chance of saving Alakaslam. And there wasn't time to try pushing both raynpelikoneet and Shapelog. Kels and Shape team could move votes. They can't move together without outing themselves. Sorry, I'm not sure what you mean by this? KelsierSC and Shapelog were presumably MIA and couldn't vote? m!Pand switches off Slam, m!Kels pulls off Slam. Your entire team just got dedicated to moving the lynch off Slam. Town lynches one of you. Even with a town on the wagon, hard to put the rest together? (I'm bad at analisis so excuse me if I come off at short, please I don't mean too.)
Which makes sense with a mafia lead wagon or a close draw. But as votes were it make absolutely no sense.
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On June 27 2019 15:31 Eversince wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2019 15:24 Trfel wrote:On June 27 2019 15:17 Eversince wrote:On June 27 2019 15:14 Trfel wrote:I still can't completely discount the possibility of KelsierSC and Pandain being mafia together though? On June 26 2019 04:28 Pandain wrote:
I would rather lynch rayn than slam. In the time approaching End of Day, this is the first time that Pandain pushes anyone other than KelsierSC. Note the time, two minutes to End of Day. There's no time to try pushing Shapelog or one of the other wagons. Given the vote count before Pandain's vote switch to raynpelikoneet, as follows:
vote count day 1 Alakaslam: (3) eversince, holyflare, Trfel Shapelog: (2) raynpelikoneet, grackaroni grackaroni Eversince: (0) grackaroni, eywa-KelsierSC: (2) Pandain, Jockmcplop, jockmcplop eversince pandain Grackaroni: (0) Holyflare Jockmcplop PandainRaynpelikoneet: (1) Holyflare eywa- eywa- holyflarePandain: (0) Eywa-Not Voting:Alakaslam Shapelog KelsierSC
Who could Pandain vote for, if he's trying to save Alakaslam at all costs? Voting for Shapelog would put Shapelog at three votes, and Alakaslam would still be lynched as he was at three votes first. Voting for raynpelikoneet only puts him at two votes, but there's a chance that he could get Holyflare to switch votes, which would give the raynpelikoneet wagon the best chance of saving Alakaslam. And there wasn't time to try pushing both raynpelikoneet and Shapelog. Kels and Shape team could move votes. They can't move together without outing themselves. Sorry, I'm not sure what you mean by this? KelsierSC and Shapelog were presumably MIA and couldn't vote? m!Pand switches off Slam, m!Kels pulls off Slam. Your entire team just got dedicated to moving the lynch off Slam. Town lynches one of you. Even with a town on the wagon, hard to put the rest together? (I'm bad at analisis so excuse me if I come off at short, please I don't mean too.)
the thing imo is that there is no information to be gained from a town lynch on D1. Literally. Whoever claims otherwise doesn't know what they are talking about. Had town lynched let's say me, they cannot still know if my reads are good or not (usually the reads are not believed because if they were why would you lynch me in the first place if my reads are good?). Noone can know if the people who switched are town or mafia and if they can explain their motivation reasonably, you have no way telling if they were jsut wrong or if they are mafia.
TLDR; it doesn't really matter if your team dedicates onto a town lynch D1, especially since the game is 8v3 which makes it D3 lylo. It's better to just keep town in the dark (aka lynch townies) that to try get credit bussing your teammates because otherwise you might get caught some other day.
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btw i secretly hope koshi is the final blue
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On June 27 2019 15:36 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2019 15:31 Eversince wrote:On June 27 2019 15:24 Trfel wrote:On June 27 2019 15:17 Eversince wrote:On June 27 2019 15:14 Trfel wrote:I still can't completely discount the possibility of KelsierSC and Pandain being mafia together though? On June 26 2019 04:28 Pandain wrote:
I would rather lynch rayn than slam. In the time approaching End of Day, this is the first time that Pandain pushes anyone other than KelsierSC. Note the time, two minutes to End of Day. There's no time to try pushing Shapelog or one of the other wagons. Given the vote count before Pandain's vote switch to raynpelikoneet, as follows:
vote count day 1 Alakaslam: (3) eversince, holyflare, Trfel Shapelog: (2) raynpelikoneet, grackaroni grackaroni Eversince: (0) grackaroni, eywa-KelsierSC: (2) Pandain, Jockmcplop, jockmcplop eversince pandain Grackaroni: (0) Holyflare Jockmcplop PandainRaynpelikoneet: (1) Holyflare eywa- eywa- holyflarePandain: (0) Eywa-Not Voting:Alakaslam Shapelog KelsierSC
Who could Pandain vote for, if he's trying to save Alakaslam at all costs? Voting for Shapelog would put Shapelog at three votes, and Alakaslam would still be lynched as he was at three votes first. Voting for raynpelikoneet only puts him at two votes, but there's a chance that he could get Holyflare to switch votes, which would give the raynpelikoneet wagon the best chance of saving Alakaslam. And there wasn't time to try pushing both raynpelikoneet and Shapelog. Kels and Shape team could move votes. They can't move together without outing themselves. Sorry, I'm not sure what you mean by this? KelsierSC and Shapelog were presumably MIA and couldn't vote? m!Pand switches off Slam, m!Kels pulls off Slam. Your entire team just got dedicated to moving the lynch off Slam. Town lynches one of you. Even with a town on the wagon, hard to put the rest together? (I'm bad at analisis so excuse me if I come off at short, please I don't mean too.) the thing imo is that there is no information to be gained from a town lynch on D1. Literally. Whoever claims otherwise doesn't know what they are talking about. Had town lynched let's say me, they cannot still know if my reads are good or not (usually the reads are not believed because if they were why would you lynch me in the first place if my reads are good?). Noone can know if the people who switched are town or mafia and if they can explain their motivation reasonably, you have no way telling if they were jsut wrong or if they are mafia. TLDR; it doesn't really matter if your team dedicates onto a town lynch D1, especially since the game is 8v3 which makes it D3 lylo. It's better to just keep town in the dark (aka lynch townies) that to try get credit bussing your teammates because otherwise you might get caught some other day.
Yes but assuming you have a bunch of mia scum friends suddenly show up to move there vote and then town catches you? You're fucked.
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Fair enough, I think I understand now. Thanks for explaining
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On June 27 2019 15:39 Eversince wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2019 15:36 raynpelikoneet wrote:On June 27 2019 15:31 Eversince wrote:On June 27 2019 15:24 Trfel wrote:On June 27 2019 15:17 Eversince wrote:On June 27 2019 15:14 Trfel wrote:I still can't completely discount the possibility of KelsierSC and Pandain being mafia together though? On June 26 2019 04:28 Pandain wrote:
I would rather lynch rayn than slam. In the time approaching End of Day, this is the first time that Pandain pushes anyone other than KelsierSC. Note the time, two minutes to End of Day. There's no time to try pushing Shapelog or one of the other wagons. Given the vote count before Pandain's vote switch to raynpelikoneet, as follows:
vote count day 1 Alakaslam: (3) eversince, holyflare, Trfel Shapelog: (2) raynpelikoneet, grackaroni grackaroni Eversince: (0) grackaroni, eywa-KelsierSC: (2) Pandain, Jockmcplop, jockmcplop eversince pandain Grackaroni: (0) Holyflare Jockmcplop PandainRaynpelikoneet: (1) Holyflare eywa- eywa- holyflarePandain: (0) Eywa-Not Voting:Alakaslam Shapelog KelsierSC
Who could Pandain vote for, if he's trying to save Alakaslam at all costs? Voting for Shapelog would put Shapelog at three votes, and Alakaslam would still be lynched as he was at three votes first. Voting for raynpelikoneet only puts him at two votes, but there's a chance that he could get Holyflare to switch votes, which would give the raynpelikoneet wagon the best chance of saving Alakaslam. And there wasn't time to try pushing both raynpelikoneet and Shapelog. Kels and Shape team could move votes. They can't move together without outing themselves. Sorry, I'm not sure what you mean by this? KelsierSC and Shapelog were presumably MIA and couldn't vote? m!Pand switches off Slam, m!Kels pulls off Slam. Your entire team just got dedicated to moving the lynch off Slam. Town lynches one of you. Even with a town on the wagon, hard to put the rest together? (I'm bad at analisis so excuse me if I come off at short, please I don't mean too.) the thing imo is that there is no information to be gained from a town lynch on D1. Literally. Whoever claims otherwise doesn't know what they are talking about. Had town lynched let's say me, they cannot still know if my reads are good or not (usually the reads are not believed because if they were why would you lynch me in the first place if my reads are good?). Noone can know if the people who switched are town or mafia and if they can explain their motivation reasonably, you have no way telling if they were jsut wrong or if they are mafia. TLDR; it doesn't really matter if your team dedicates onto a town lynch D1, especially since the game is 8v3 which makes it D3 lylo. It's better to just keep town in the dark (aka lynch townies) that to try get credit bussing your teammates because otherwise you might get caught some other day. Yes but assuming you have a bunch of mia scum friends suddenly show up to move there vote and then town catches you? You're fucked.
Kelsier hadn't voted at all, it's expected he comes in and votes as town and as mafia regardless of which faction he represents. If he can be around that is.
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Also Pandain was still trying to lynch Kelsier before me. He only turned towards me because Kelsier didn't gain traction. So i am sorry but i dont buy the argument that Pandain can be mafia with Kelsier slot.
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Yeah but that wouldn't change the fact the vote was stupid close. If it went into a landslide because 3 people jumped off last second, killed some town, then one of those 3 get caught later. Highly suspicious in my book. Or am I really dense?
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EPT
