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On June 27 2019 12:35 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2019 12:26 Eversince wrote:On June 27 2019 12:22 Trfel wrote:On June 27 2019 12:10 Eversince wrote:
Anyone about? I'm here, if a bit distracted. What's up? Oh that's ok! I am patient! Thoughts about what has happened? Honestly I'm kinda thinking the same as raynpelikoneet, just reading and waiting for Shapelog/Koshi to play. It really does feel like the mafia team is all the afk's, though I've felt that way before and it's never been true before; though I think it's true this time. I still think it's almost certain at least one of Shapelog/Koshi is mafia, and just the way the game is going on doesn't necessarily make me feel like there's an active mafia presence.. You?
Ok. I can't decide if Pandain is mafia. I've tried real hard. His actions make no sense other than his N1 start. But then he backtracks and doesn't respond to me.
Ewya has been flighty whole time. Throw reads, no exploitation, mia. And wrose is those reads seem super opportunistic to me. Rayn get's tossed under a bus, kill him. I get 'questioned' (I don't think many people ever read me as mafia), kill her.
She just seems to push on anything real heavy for the hmm 'no' reasons' It bothers me alot.
Kels was mafia. Maby Koshi can change my mind because I've played with him bunches. It will be a grand effort though.
I'd still lynch this slot NP.
Agree again with you on Shapes. I'd lynch this guy today too NP.
What I'm having such a hard time with is there must be town in there. I don't want to lynch town. So who is the mis-guides town and who is mafia?
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That is where I am at at least.
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If Shapelog is town we lynch Koshi, if Shapelog is mafia maybe we can get a better read on Koshi and clear him.
Right now I'm most inclined to think Eywa- is town, moreso than Pandain. To choose between them. But I should look at both again.
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Why can't Shape/Kosher be mafia togther?
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and I'm so foiled on Pandain please actually just explain where you get the read.
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On June 27 2019 13:00 Eversince wrote:
Why can't Shape/Kosher be mafia togther? They can I think, I just really hope they're not so that there is one active mafia 
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I give you the opinion on Ewya. I'm starting to foil on her hard to. I thought she was probably town then (reasoning above) changed my mind.
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On June 27 2019 13:01 Eversince wrote:
and I'm so foiled on Pandain please actually just explain where you get the read.
My reasoning for being suspicious of Pandain is the same as Holyflare's, he's described it a few times. It's just really suspicious that he'd be wanting to kill anyone but Alakaslam, regardless of the rest of his play.
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Ok! Thanks for talking to me Truffles! If you think of anything else I'm off tonight. I'll be about!
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On June 27 2019 13:07 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2019 13:01 Eversince wrote:
and I'm so foiled on Pandain please actually just explain where you get the read.
My reasoning for being suspicious of Pandain is the same as Holyflare's, he's described it a few times. It's just really suspicious that he'd be wanting to kill anyone but Alakaslam, regardless of the rest of his play.
I list those same things too. HF is better at it than me.
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On June 27 2019 13:01 Eversince wrote:
and I'm so foiled on Pandain please actually just explain where you get the read.
I would appreciate this still. Just because it's tieing me up so bad.
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Canada11355 Posts
vote count day 2
Shapelog: (3) grackaroni, Pandain, Jockmcplop
Raynpelikoneet: (1) Eywa-
Pandain: (1) Holyflare
Not Voting:
Shapelog
Koshi
Trfel
eversince
raynpelikoneet
Shapelog is currently set to be lynched.
deadline is in
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This and this are the best explanations for why Pandain is likely mafia IMO. Just how his play seemed heavily motivated by protecting Alakaslam, who was mafia.
I also really didn't like how Pandain voted for Grackaroni after he claimed his role. That's just not a good play for town, there is no reason to push a claimed player, and I highly doubt Pandain wouldn't know this. I once pushed someone who claimed when I was mafia and I paid the price for it.
Something else I'm wondering about Pandain, what made him gain more confidence in his scumread of KelsierSC Day 1?
+ Show Spoiler [Analysis] +On June 24 2019 23:44 Pandain wrote:
I think Rayn is mafia with kelsier On June 25 2019 20:54 Pandain wrote:
Unfortunately I don't have too many useful opinions.
Rayn's reasoning is convoluted enough that's it's hard to understand (and thus make judgments on) his arguments.
I think Slam would actually be a fine lynch, just because I don't have a lot of convidence in anyone and better to lynch someone completely noncontributive.
I agree Grack's roleclaim makes no sense, and I doubt he's doctor, but I'm unsure whether that makes him VT or mafia.
I'm still going to keep my vote on Kelsier because I don't like his responses.
I have strong town reads on you (eversince) and jock.
Anyway feel free to push me but I honestly don't have more thoughts than that (emphasis mine) On June 26 2019 02:16 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2019 01:42 Jockmcplop wrote:
Despite the fact that he's been nearly universally read as mafia/null, I'd perfectly well accept that no-one wants to vote for Kiesler if someone could point me at a townie post of his.
He's been here, so its not like he hasn't had the opportunity.
I also find it a bit concerning when at least 4 people scumread a guy and no-one votes for them. It means they can't lose. I think he's a great vig shot. On June 26 2019 04:23 Pandain wrote:
@HF if you're going to lynch a random, might as well lynch Kelsier.
At least we know slam will spam up the thread later when he's free. Kelsier will just always be the same and be lynch bait every lynch in future even if town. On June 26 2019 04:43 Pandain wrote:
Anyway I don't even know if I will defend myself much anyway.
If I was you guys I would probably vote me anyway. Great news is that we lynch scum day 1 so mislynching me isn't a big deal.
I'll just say that yeah I thought Slam was a decent lynch if we had no idea what to do, but I grew increasingly certain KSC was scum. And it still seemed unlikely to me especially later that with the votes this close a mafia would be lynched. And I think this is true, if even 2 mafia were active then it would have been easy to force another lynch.
But yeah anyway sometimes in mafia you're wrong and you end up hard-defending the mafia with three minutes to go. What you gonna do To me, Pandain's increased suspicion of KelsierSC seems to come out of nowhere, it feels fabricated. His initial vote honestly feels like a pressure vote, then he seems to treat him not too differently from a random lynch. I just don't understand what would make him get increasingly more confident that KelsierSC was mafia over time, and more importantly I don't see that reflected in his posts, until after Alakaslam became the leading wagon.
Also, I just noticed Pandain stopped being suspicious of KelsierSC and Shapelog, huh?
+ Show Spoiler [More analysis] +On June 26 2019 19:25 Pandain wrote:
Honestly the slam post on Eywa puts me against thinking he's scum, which is why I'm pretty certain there's at least one (if not both) scum between Kelsier and Shape. (along with many similar posts and explanations for why at least one of KelsierSC/Shapelog have to be mafia) On June 26 2019 19:12 Pandain wrote:
In my opinion, Eversince is practically confirmed town. Jock, Rayn, and Trefel are 98% town.
Grack and Ewya are null to slightly town.
Keslier and Shape are likely mafia. On June 26 2019 21:04 Pandain wrote:
I'm upgrading Kels to a null-read and downgrading Shape to a slight scum read.
Also making Grack null. On June 27 2019 07:19 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2019 06:33 Holyflare wrote:
Pandain what exactly are your reads now? Extremely extremely town read on Grack that will never change unless/until more people claim. So that leaves Shape/Kelsier/Eywa/Jock for last possible scum. Don't think the last two are scum, but it's possible. First two options are afkers so it's hard so it's basically a coin flip maybe between the two. Honestly though I haven't done a heavy enough analysis to choose which one I will definitely pick, so I will analyze all the four tomorrow hopefully. What is this read progression? He went from Shapelog and KelsierSC as mafia to null on KelsierSC (!) and downgrading (!!!) Shapelog to a slight scum read, while previously thinking Shapelog was mafia. Honestly I don't know what to to think of this, it feels mafia-motivated, like he started to doubt and then followed the thread sentiment. But sometimes I feel like town is more likely to mess up like this rather than mafia, as mafia is more careful...
Pandain, I'd definitely like to know what was going on with this post, if possible.
Looking back on Pandain's filter, he really hasn't done that much work... He's been very active, probably the most active player in the game (particularly Night 1), but there hasn't been much real thought there. Mostly he's just been defending himself and explaining things again, often things that other players have been saying too. Admittedly there isn't much new information to analyze or much original thought to be had, but that doesn't entirely excuse him.
All that to say I'm pretty suspicious of Pandain, which is nothing new, but if you wanted words, here are words.
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Eywa- time.
Raynpelikoneet scumread analysis
On June 26 2019 00:50 Eywa- wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2019 23:51 Holyflare wrote:On June 25 2019 23:49 Eywa- wrote:On June 25 2019 23:47 Holyflare wrote:On June 25 2019 23:46 Eywa- wrote:On June 25 2019 22:02 Holyflare wrote:
My main problem with rayn is that kelsier looks very bad in all aspects of his posts but rayn specifically went out of his way to defend kelsier while:
Calling his posts out saying this is what mafia kelsier would do
Ignoring all contradictory kelsier points
Making mafia posts from Kelsier into town posts That would be because Rayn is scum and Kelsier is probably town right? Or hard defending his buddy. Good point, but we agree that Rayn is a suitable lynch for today? Quite likely a good lynch, yeah. I want to know your thoughts on the game though because so far all I know is a couple of lines with no substance. Why did you town read shapelog? Why do you mafia read rayn? For Rayn, I feel like a lot of his early posts are somewhat non-committal. He wonders why I have random town reads, gives a couple random town reads, over justifies his town read on Eversince, then agrees on my scum reads conditionally (before I even responded to his previous concerns about my town reads). I mean, I don't have any one thing about his play I don't like, but it feels like a very cautious start from him. I also don't like the pun on the town claim. On June 26 2019 00:51 Eywa- wrote:
The hard defense of Kelsier is also really weird. That seems like quite a contradiction. He's saying that raynpelikoneet had a cautious start with a bunch of non-committal posts. I don't see this at all from raynpelikoneet's play: raynpelikoneet had some hard townreads early on, willing to defend them, which Eywa- even mentions. That's not non-committal, that's highly committed...
Really that's the only notable thing I see from Eywa-. Also, I noticed that Eywa- was not around for the lynch, and wasn't around for the Alakaslam wagon at all. This means he's effectively in the same group as Shapelog and KelsierSC as an inactive mafia who couldn't do anything to divert the lynch from Alakaslam.
And I mentioned before how it felt like he (she?) was hiding behind Holyflare for the raynpelikoneet push.
Honestly could see Pandain/Eywa- being the remaining two mafia. It would be nice to get more from Koshi and Shapelog, I would really appreciate more information to try and better read those slots.
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On June 27 2019 14:00 Trfel wrote:This and this are the best explanations for why Pandain is likely mafia IMO. Just how his play seemed heavily motivated by protecting Alakaslam, who was mafia. I also really didn't like how Pandain voted for Grackaroni after he claimed his role. That's just not a good play for town, there is no reason to push a claimed player, and I highly doubt Pandain wouldn't know this. I once pushed someone who claimed when I was mafia and I paid the price for it. Something else I'm wondering about Pandain, what made him gain more confidence in his scumread of KelsierSC Day 1? + Show Spoiler [Analysis] +On June 24 2019 23:44 Pandain wrote:
I think Rayn is mafia with kelsier On June 25 2019 20:54 Pandain wrote:
Unfortunately I don't have too many useful opinions.
Rayn's reasoning is convoluted enough that's it's hard to understand (and thus make judgments on) his arguments.
I think Slam would actually be a fine lynch, just because I don't have a lot of convidence in anyone and better to lynch someone completely noncontributive.
I agree Grack's roleclaim makes no sense, and I doubt he's doctor, but I'm unsure whether that makes him VT or mafia.
I'm still going to keep my vote on Kelsier because I don't like his responses.
I have strong town reads on you (eversince) and jock.
Anyway feel free to push me but I honestly don't have more thoughts than that (emphasis mine) On June 26 2019 02:16 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2019 01:42 Jockmcplop wrote:
Despite the fact that he's been nearly universally read as mafia/null, I'd perfectly well accept that no-one wants to vote for Kiesler if someone could point me at a townie post of his.
He's been here, so its not like he hasn't had the opportunity.
I also find it a bit concerning when at least 4 people scumread a guy and no-one votes for them. It means they can't lose. I think he's a great vig shot. On June 26 2019 04:23 Pandain wrote:
@HF if you're going to lynch a random, might as well lynch Kelsier.
At least we know slam will spam up the thread later when he's free. Kelsier will just always be the same and be lynch bait every lynch in future even if town. On June 26 2019 04:43 Pandain wrote:
Anyway I don't even know if I will defend myself much anyway.
If I was you guys I would probably vote me anyway. Great news is that we lynch scum day 1 so mislynching me isn't a big deal.
I'll just say that yeah I thought Slam was a decent lynch if we had no idea what to do, but I grew increasingly certain KSC was scum. And it still seemed unlikely to me especially later that with the votes this close a mafia would be lynched. And I think this is true, if even 2 mafia were active then it would have been easy to force another lynch.
But yeah anyway sometimes in mafia you're wrong and you end up hard-defending the mafia with three minutes to go. What you gonna do To me, Pandain's increased suspicion of KelsierSC seems to come out of nowhere, it feels fabricated. His initial vote honestly feels like a pressure vote, then he seems to treat him not too differently from a random lynch. I just don't understand what would make him get increasingly more confident that KelsierSC was mafia over time, and more importantly I don't see that reflected in his posts, until after Alakaslam became the leading wagon. Also, I just noticed Pandain stopped being suspicious of KelsierSC and Shapelog, huh? + Show Spoiler [More analysis] +On June 26 2019 19:25 Pandain wrote:
Honestly the slam post on Eywa puts me against thinking he's scum, which is why I'm pretty certain there's at least one (if not both) scum between Kelsier and Shape. (along with many similar posts and explanations for why at least one of KelsierSC/Shapelog have to be mafia) On June 26 2019 19:12 Pandain wrote:
In my opinion, Eversince is practically confirmed town. Jock, Rayn, and Trefel are 98% town.
Grack and Ewya are null to slightly town.
Keslier and Shape are likely mafia. On June 26 2019 21:04 Pandain wrote:
I'm upgrading Kels to a null-read and downgrading Shape to a slight scum read.
Also making Grack null. On June 27 2019 07:19 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2019 06:33 Holyflare wrote:
Pandain what exactly are your reads now? Extremely extremely town read on Grack that will never change unless/until more people claim. So that leaves Shape/Kelsier/Eywa/Jock for last possible scum. Don't think the last two are scum, but it's possible. First two options are afkers so it's hard so it's basically a coin flip maybe between the two. Honestly though I haven't done a heavy enough analysis to choose which one I will definitely pick, so I will analyze all the four tomorrow hopefully. What is this read progression? He went from Shapelog and KelsierSC as mafia to null on KelsierSC (!) and downgrading (!!!) Shapelog to a slight scum read, while previously thinking Shapelog was mafia. Honestly I don't know what to to think of this, it feels mafia-motivated, like he started to doubt and then followed the thread sentiment. But sometimes I feel like town is more likely to mess up like this rather than mafia, as mafia is more careful... Pandain, I'd definitely like to know what was going on with this post, if possible. Looking back on Pandain's filter, he really hasn't done that much work... He's been very active, probably the most active player in the game (particularly Night 1), but there hasn't been much real thought there. Mostly he's just been defending himself and explaining things again, often things that other players have been saying too. Admittedly there isn't much new information to analyze or much original thought to be had, but that doesn't entirely excuse him. All that to say I'm pretty suspicious of Pandain, which is nothing new, but if you wanted words, here are words.
Thanks  ! Yeah I think you are so town it hurts, I wanted somebody elses perspective. Maby Pand/Kels(Koshi).? Make sense then?
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On June 27 2019 14:11 Trfel wrote:Eywa- time. Raynpelikoneet scumread analysis Show nested quote +On June 26 2019 00:50 Eywa- wrote:On June 25 2019 23:51 Holyflare wrote:On June 25 2019 23:49 Eywa- wrote:On June 25 2019 23:47 Holyflare wrote:On June 25 2019 23:46 Eywa- wrote:On June 25 2019 22:02 Holyflare wrote:
My main problem with rayn is that kelsier looks very bad in all aspects of his posts but rayn specifically went out of his way to defend kelsier while:
Calling his posts out saying this is what mafia kelsier would do
Ignoring all contradictory kelsier points
Making mafia posts from Kelsier into town posts That would be because Rayn is scum and Kelsier is probably town right? Or hard defending his buddy. Good point, but we agree that Rayn is a suitable lynch for today? Quite likely a good lynch, yeah. I want to know your thoughts on the game though because so far all I know is a couple of lines with no substance. Why did you town read shapelog? Why do you mafia read rayn? For Rayn, I feel like a lot of his early posts are somewhat non-committal. He wonders why I have random town reads, gives a couple random town reads, over justifies his town read on Eversince, then agrees on my scum reads conditionally (before I even responded to his previous concerns about my town reads). I mean, I don't have any one thing about his play I don't like, but it feels like a very cautious start from him. I also don't like the pun on the town claim. Show nested quote +On June 26 2019 00:51 Eywa- wrote:
The hard defense of Kelsier is also really weird. That seems like quite a contradiction. He's saying that raynpelikoneet had a cautious start with a bunch of non-committal posts. I don't see this at all from raynpelikoneet's play: raynpelikoneet had some hard townreads early on, willing to defend them, which Eywa- even mentions. That's not non-committal, that's highly committed... Really that's the only notable thing I see from Eywa-. Also, I noticed that Eywa- was not around for the lynch, and wasn't around for the Alakaslam wagon at all. This means he's effectively in the same group as Shapelog and KelsierSC as an inactive mafia who couldn't do anything to divert the lynch from Alakaslam. And I mentioned before how it felt like he (she?) was hiding behind Holyflare for the raynpelikoneet push. Honestly could see Pandain/Eywa- being the remaining two mafia. It would be nice to get more from Koshi and Shapelog, I would really appreciate more information to try and better read those slots.
Alright but Koshi slot then being lost town. Ewya's post have seemed ok to me so far until I got tired and re-filtered. Then I started to be done with it. Icould see this team 100% too.
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Actually I think this makes a lot of sense. Slam/Shape/Ewya team. Thoughts?
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Pandain could be the mafia but I think Ewya's post are way more trying to push agenda than Pandain's And I've been stuck on Pandain almost the whole game.
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Pandain has been useless but he hasn't tried to mask why. He's active enough but not actually trying to push for anything is why.
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Took another look at Shapelog and KelsierSC, honestly I don't have a terribly strong read on either of them. In particular, KelsierSC I didn't find anything I really disliked.
I'm still a bit hesitant about jockmcplop too. I would read him as town, but I was very confident he was town last game for his open, honest play, but he was mafia then and completely burned me. So I don't want to townread him here wrongly...
On June 25 2019 02:45 Jockmcplop wrote:
Rayn just to be sure what I'm looking at, you're saying that shapelog has shown the ability to discern when a post definitely isn't mafia motivated and didn't apply that here for whatever reason?
I don't think its a slam dunk but its definitely an interesting case. I can see a situation where someone doesn't apply a way of thinking that they are capable of, without having mafia motivations.
That said, I don't really like shapelog's posting in general. Sort of pressured ES a little bit then dropped it, made that post about trfel and then went back on it later while still leaving room to go back to the suspicion if needed. On June 25 2019 02:53 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2019 02:49 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am not saying he here should be "able to discern when a post definitely isn't mafia motivated", but he isn't even thinking about that as an option. I think I'd like to see more from shapelog, yeah. Definitely suspicious. If everything stayed the same between now and deadline I would vote. Vote count the last time jockmcplop was present in the thread Day 1:On June 26 2019 02:47 Fecalfeast wrote:vote count day 1 Shapelog: (1) raynpelikoneet, grackaroniEversince: (2) grackaroni, eywa- KelsierSC: (1) Pandain, Jockmcplop, jockmcplop Grackaroni: (2) Holyflare Jockmcplop Pandain Raynpelikoneet: (0) Holyflare eywa-Pandain: (0) Eywa-Not Voting:Alakaslam Shapelog KelsierSC Trfel Eversince Grackaroni[blue] is currently set to be lynched.
deadline is in 1 hour 43 minutes It doesn't make sense to me why he votes for KelsierSC here. Why not vote for Shapelog or Grackaroni, both people he's said he's suspicious of? Feels like he's just trying to be off-wagon..On June 26 2019 07:26 Jockmcplop wrote:
(...)
Null
Shapelog - Could well be mafia.I haven't seen anything that specifically suggests scum though.
(...) What happened to his suspicions?
And he also qualifies as an AFK mafia at end of day, just like Shapelog and KelsierSC and Eywa-.
Honestly I'm kinda null on jockmcplop, in my opinion he has a killer scum game and I haven't seen him do anything super townie here. I'm probably just being paranoid... but I'm a bit suspicious.
Voting for Pandain, I'm currently more convinced about him than Shapelog. Miiiiight change it later, I think this game would be more fun with Pandain in and Shapelog dead, but for now that's my vote.
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EPT
