EPT[M][N]MiniFeast I - Page 45
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Pandain
United States12989 Posts
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10021 Posts
On June 26 2019 14:48 raynpelikoneet wrote: If there is a vigilante btw they should absolutely always shoot Shapelog. He flips mafia, cool, he flips town lynch Kelsier because he has to be mafia, then Pandain and jock become pretty much hard cleared and the last mafia HAS to be in me and Eywa. You will have enough days to lynch both. So I'm using this general strategy to solve the game (using lynchings if there's no vigi), but it relies on two assumptions being true. I'd like help to identify any weaknesses in this plan. 1: We're assuming that trfel and ES are town for killing slam. I rate this at +90% chance of both being town. I'm happy to proceed under this assumption 2: If shapelog is town then ksc is mafia and vica versa. Is it possible that neither are mafia --- how likely is this? This to me is the biggest weakness of this plan. I'm fairly certain on ksc but there's always the possibility of reads being wrong and I don't want to pursue a strategy that screws everything up based on whether one of my reads is right or not. ^^ Sorry if its already been explained why one of ksc and shapelog must be mafia but I can't remember that conversation. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10021 Posts
On June 26 2019 19:13 Pandain wrote: Jock assuming there's no vig shot, would you want to lynch kelsier or shape first? If no-one else was voting I would go for ksc. If the plan above seems sound then I'm happy to go with shapelog just so that we're all on te same page and we can have a nice, smooth, easy day 2. | ||
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Pandain
United States12989 Posts
If Grack is mafia, there's a non-zero chance that the last scum could be Eywa for instance. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10021 Posts
On June 26 2019 19:17 Pandain wrote: Rayn is assuming that Grack is town. Under that theory, there's no way that Kelsier and Shape are both mafia (because the last three mafia have to be within Ewya, Kelsier, and Shape, also assuming that Pandain and Jock are town). If Grack is mafia, there's a non-zero chance that the last scum could be Eywa for instance. Yeah this a problem. I guess I'll have to try and figure grack out before tomorrow. Grack/eywa seems somewhat possible to me right now. BTW that first sentence doesn't make sense to me, do you mean this: Rayn is assuming that Grack is town. Under that theory, there's no way that Kelsier and Shape are both TOWN (because the last three mafia have to be within Ewya, Kelsier, and Shape, also assuming that Pandain and Jock are town). | ||
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Pandain
United States12989 Posts
Honestly the slam post on Eywa puts me against thinking he's scum, which is why I'm pretty certain there's at least one (if not both) scum between Kelsier and Shape. What did you think about that post? | ||
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Pandain
United States12989 Posts
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10021 Posts
On June 26 2019 19:25 Pandain wrote: Yeah I meant to say town. Honestly the slam post on Eywa puts me against thinking he's scum, which is why I'm pretty certain there's at least one (if not both) scum between Kelsier and Shape. What did you think about that post? I think its more than likely that you are right, but just based off that one short post I wouldn't want to gamble on it. I had forgotten about that tbh. That does make it more likey that there is one mafia in ksc/shape. Everything is pointing towards that anyway. I still think killing shapelog is a good idea, even though I'm still null on him. It looks to me like this although this plan could feasibly go very badly wrong, the chances of that happening given what we know are kinda low. | ||
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Pandain
United States12989 Posts
Also making Grack null. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10021 Posts
On June 26 2019 21:04 Pandain wrote: I'm upgrading Kels to a null-read and downgrading Shape to a slight scum read. Also making Grack null. Why? | ||
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Grackaroni
United States9857 Posts
 On June 26 2019 06:08 Alakaslam wrote: Mindmeld eywa a little. Was early at this point though. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 26 2019 19:07 Jockmcplop wrote: To be honest Holyflare is right, there is a small chance I could do what I did as mafia and it's not worth ignoring. Yes it would be a suboptimal play, but sometimes mafia messes up. You can judge the likelihood and look at my play as a whole, but I would never recommend treating someone as 100% confirmed town for that alone.I'm not sure that this is true, more like you can't trust logic over everything else. I'll keep an open mind but continue to presume that trfel is town unless I see something extremely convincing. That said if you lynch me first while Shapelog/KelsierSC/Pandain/Eywa- are all alive, I think I'd (rightfully) be a bit annoyed | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10021 Posts
On June 26 2019 22:55 Trfel wrote: To be honest Holyflare is right, there is a small chance I could do what I did as mafia and it's not worth ignoring. Yes it would be a suboptimal play, but sometimes mafia messes up. You can judge the likelihood and look at my play as a whole, but I would never recommend treating someone as 100% confirmed town for that alone. That said if you lynch me first while Shapelog/KelsierSC/Pandain/Eywa- are all alive, I think I'd (rightfully) be a bit annoyed Oh I'm not saying 100% town, I'm saying +90% that both you and ES are. Given the balance of probability of mafia sacrificing one of their own unnecessarily I think that's fair. | ||
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Eywa-
Canada4876 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 26 2019 23:08 Eywa- wrote: I'll consider it if you tell me why we should be doing that?So we're lynching Rayn tomorrow right? | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10021 Posts
On June 26 2019 23:08 Eywa- wrote: So we're lynching Rayn tomorrow right? Hey everybody its RNG LYNCH TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Because there's no point in trying to work things out. Just shout names at random and hope the game solves itself. | ||
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Eywa-
Canada4876 Posts
On June 26 2019 23:14 Jockmcplop wrote: Hey everybody its RNG LYNCH TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Because there's no point in trying to work things out. Just shout names at random and hope the game solves itself. Well, it's not so much RNG. I'm town Jockmcplop town Grackaroni town HF town Trfel town Eversince town Pandain town (I think that his actions at the end of day 1 to look for a better lynch is very Towny, scum either bus or hit a player at 2 votes) That leaves a PoE of kelsier, shapelog and rayn... Might be a little too narrow, but I feel pretty strongly about the rest. Maybe Grackaroni falls into scum at mass claim... 2 confirmed townies should make this auto (or very near it) | ||
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Eywa-
Canada4876 Posts
Lock town Me HF Jock Trfel Prob town Pandain Eversince Grackaroni PoE Rayn Kelsier Shapelog Though, the fact that Rayn is also okay with that PoE either means he's town or there's a deep wolf, so I would prefer to shoot Rayn first for that reason. He should reason with this because he SHOULD have the same dielema as TOWN | ||
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Eywa-
Canada4876 Posts
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Eywa-
Canada4876 Posts
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