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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10005 Posts
On June 26 2019 07:24 Holyflare wrote: I would never intentionally make someone feel bad for my entertainment like that, ever. I really just want answers to my questions! I was being tongue-in-cheek  | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10005 Posts
On June 26 2019 07:32 Grackaroni wrote: This argument that I'm following thread sentiment is pretty suspicious to me. I've given my own reasons for whatever push I've made and I don't think that's an accurate description of my filter. My reads have been changing fluidly. I don't believe Jock's have so far. They haven't been changing fluidly though, more like suddenly and often... | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10005 Posts
On June 26 2019 07:43 Grackaroni wrote: Which ones do you mean? You say that I've been following thread sentiment, but I contributed my own ideas on Shapelog after I saw Rayn talking about him. The other 3 people I mentioned just said they agreed with what Rayn wrote, which was just a convoluted meta-reason of how Rayn expects Shapelog to read a post, which I don't see how anyone who isn't Rayn can agree with without their own reasons. Really the more that I think about it the more bullshit I think your push is. There were lots of people that "followed thread sentiment" on Kelsier/Shapelog. Kelsier was probably right about you just wanting to jump in with HF from the start of the game. The part where you scumread ES stuck out to me specifically. Something about the timing of it. Its kinda hard to explain but it feels wrong. What isn't helping right now also is that I'm sure that KSC is scum, slam was definitely scum, and you voted on the only other wagon going. Rayn also did, but although none of his logic appeals to me but I think he's town. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10005 Posts
On June 26 2019 07:55 Grackaroni wrote: This really isn't my first run in with you either. I mentioned that you liked Rayn's Shapelog post and then you tried to contradict me, which doesn't sit well with me because you answered to Rayn that you would lynch Shapelog if it we were at the deadline. I didn't agree with Rayn's shapelog post but I had other reasons for not liking shapelog. Read the following again from that point of view and see that it makes more sense than whatever you are trying to make up about me liking rayn's post. I don't think its a slam dunk but its definitely an interesting case. I can see a situation where someone doesn't apply a way of thinking that they are capable of, without having mafia motivations. That said, I don't really like shapelog's posting in general. Sort of pressured ES a little bit then dropped it, made that post about trfel and then went back on it later while still leaving room to go back to the suspicion if needed. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10005 Posts
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10005 Posts
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10005 Posts
On June 26 2019 07:59 Jockmcplop wrote: I literally told rayn why I thought his post was wrong and you say that's me liking rayn's post. Just to clear this up one more time this is the sentence i am talking about: I can see a situation where someone doesn't apply a way of thinking that they are capable of, without having mafia motivations. That is saying to rayn that his case on shapelog doesn't make shapelog mafia. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10005 Posts
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10005 Posts
On June 26 2019 08:08 Grackaroni wrote: My problem with Eversince was that she was very chatty early game and then when she was actually talking about reads there was no explanation for why Pandain was the best lynch 2019, when I felt that Pandain was a pretty unusual person for her to single out with that read especially when she said Pandain's meta was to lurk. I first got into that idea here + Show Spoiler + On June 25 2019 17:54 Grackaroni wrote: In the case where Shapelog is not mafia, I see a very plausible team of Pandain/Eversince/Eywa. I think Pandain has been under-contributing from his town meta so far but I have no idea why Eversince is scum reading him in this post. She(?) also seems to think that being afk is standard behavior for Pandain, and me (though I really haven't played with her very much and don't think I'm an overly afk player.), so why is Pandain best lynch 2019? Then I noticed this post: Beyond that I don't know what I can say to that. You're accusing me of being scum for following thread sentiment and then being scum for coming up with my own read when accused of following thread sentiment, so there's really no way I can avoid being scum read by you. Maybe this is true. I'm an irrational beast. But I'm trying grackaroni, I'm trying damn hard to be rational. I'm happy to drop it and keep scumreading you until something changes my mind. I'm not tunnelled so that could happen especially if you are town. Honestly there's more going on that just the timing of your reads, the voting thing I mentioned does matter at this point, given that I'm scumreading ksc and you voted on the only other wagon. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10005 Posts
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10005 Posts
On June 26 2019 08:17 Eversince wrote: I think the whole argument is silly.Grack claimed doc. I he doesn't die tonight we lynch him. What mafia is going to let a town run loose with conf doc? This is what I meant before when I said I didn't care about his claim unless it caused chaos. It's a problem that will sort itself out short order. Fair point. Let's see who's here tomorrow night. There was little point in posting a reads list right now anyway but ES asked me to. Better to see what info we get tomorrow and work from that. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10005 Posts
On June 26 2019 14:48 raynpelikoneet wrote: If there is a vigilante btw they should absolutely always shoot Shapelog. He flips mafia, cool, he flips town lynch Kelsier because he has to be mafia, then Pandain and jock become pretty much hard cleared and the last mafia HAS to be in me and Eywa. You will have enough days to lynch both. This is a very good post. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10005 Posts
On June 26 2019 17:15 Pandain wrote: Ok so if Shape is town, then how is game solved If shape = town, KSC is mafia, you and me both become conftown and the rest is easy | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10005 Posts
I'm still suspicious based on voting alone but i'm upgrading him from scum to scum lean. The way he carried himself during that argument does seem more townie than mafia. I still think we should kill shapelog because of what rayn said. Going off my personal reads list, if shapelog flips mafia we're in a great spot (in this case my reads might be wrong and I would probably just sheep from this point) and if he flips town I'm looking at ksc and one of grack/eywa (mayyyyyyyyyyyyybe Pandain) and that's game over. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10005 Posts
On June 26 2019 17:57 raynpelikoneet wrote: jock you should just believe me when i say grack is not mafia. there is simply no possibility of him being mafia. Like I said, its not particularly relevant in the next day or so. I'll be going for a shapelog lynch regardless at this point, so grack only becomes relevant if shapelog flips town and even then ksc must die first before grack becomes a factor. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10005 Posts
On June 26 2019 18:02 Holyflare wrote: I am not sold on trfel being town. The post about not knowing who to vote seemed honest which I liked but it always seems to be a struggle for him to post a read like he has to fabricate it. I don't know, just a gut feeling. Don't write him off just because he voted afk slam. I'll need to have a reread but don't expect much I'll be in handover meetings all day. I just can't see him flat out killing a teammate with two other wagons available. Its not the correct play at all imo. Its vaguely possible but.... no. If trfel and slam are both mafia, then at least one of kels/shapelog isn't and that gives him an out. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10005 Posts
Him being town is pretty important if I'm going to go along with a shapelog vote tomorrow. I can't see any way that trfel isn't town. He had the choice of 3 wagons, if trfel is mafia then at least one of those 3 is town and he can safely vote for them. He hadn't town read either KSC or shapelog at any point during day 1 so wouldn't have been contradicting himself. Both ksc and shapelog were being scumread by alot of players so no-one would raise any eyebrows at trfel voting for either of them. I know you said its a just a gut feeling right now but can you see that the logic of the situation pretty much means he has to be town? | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10005 Posts
On June 26 2019 19:02 Holyflare wrote: Nothing logical works in mafia, ever. That's a lesson you'll have to learn. I agree it's quite unlikely but I can't shake the gut feeling. I'm not sure that this is true, more like you can't trust logic over everything else. I'll keep an open mind but continue to presume that trfel is town unless I see something extremely convincing. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10005 Posts
On June 26 2019 14:48 raynpelikoneet wrote: If there is a vigilante btw they should absolutely always shoot Shapelog. He flips mafia, cool, he flips town lynch Kelsier because he has to be mafia, then Pandain and jock become pretty much hard cleared and the last mafia HAS to be in me and Eywa. You will have enough days to lynch both. So I'm using this general strategy to solve the game (using lynchings if there's no vigi), but it relies on two assumptions being true. I'd like help to identify any weaknesses in this plan. 1: We're assuming that trfel and ES are town for killing slam. I rate this at +90% chance of both being town. I'm happy to proceed under this assumption 2: If shapelog is town then ksc is mafia and vica versa. Is it possible that neither are mafia --- how likely is this? This to me is the biggest weakness of this plan. I'm fairly certain on ksc but there's always the possibility of reads being wrong and I don't want to pursue a strategy that screws everything up based on whether one of my reads is right or not. ^^ Sorry if its already been explained why one of ksc and shapelog must be mafia but I can't remember that conversation. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom10005 Posts
On June 26 2019 19:13 Pandain wrote: Jock assuming there's no vig shot, would you want to lynch kelsier or shape first? If no-one else was voting I would go for ksc. If the plan above seems sound then I'm happy to go with shapelog just so that we're all on te same page and we can have a nice, smooth, easy day 2. | ||
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