EPTOn June 27 2019 14:00 Trfel wrote:
This and this are the best explanations for why Pandain is likely mafia IMO. Just how his play seemed heavily motivated by protecting Alakaslam, who was mafia.
I also really didn't like how Pandain voted for Grackaroni after he claimed his role. That's just not a good play for town, there is no reason to push a claimed player, and I highly doubt Pandain wouldn't know this. I once pushed someone who claimed when I was mafia and I paid the price for it.
Something else I'm wondering about Pandain, what made him gain more confidence in his scumread of KelsierSC Day 1?
+ Show Spoiler [Analysis] +
To me, Pandain's increased suspicion of KelsierSC seems to come out of nowhere, it feels fabricated. His initial vote honestly feels like a pressure vote, then he seems to treat him not too differently from a random lynch. I just don't understand what would make him get increasingly more confident that KelsierSC was mafia over time, and more importantly I don't see that reflected in his posts, until after Alakaslam became the leading wagon.
Also, I just noticed Pandain stopped being suspicious of KelsierSC and Shapelog, huh?
+ Show Spoiler [More analysis] +
Honestly I don't know what to to think of this, it feels mafia-motivated, like he started to doubt and then followed the thread sentiment. But sometimes I feel like town is more likely to mess up like this rather than mafia, as mafia is more careful...
Pandain, I'd definitely like to know what was going on with this post, if possible.
Looking back on Pandain's filter, he really hasn't done that much work... He's been very active, probably the most active player in the game (particularly Night 1), but there hasn't been much real thought there. Mostly he's just been defending himself and explaining things again, often things that other players have been saying too. Admittedly there isn't much new information to analyze or much original thought to be had, but that doesn't entirely excuse him.
All that to say I'm pretty suspicious of Pandain, which is nothing new, but if you wanted words, here are words.
This and this are the best explanations for why Pandain is likely mafia IMO. Just how his play seemed heavily motivated by protecting Alakaslam, who was mafia.
I also really didn't like how Pandain voted for Grackaroni after he claimed his role. That's just not a good play for town, there is no reason to push a claimed player, and I highly doubt Pandain wouldn't know this. I once pushed someone who claimed when I was mafia and I paid the price for it.
Something else I'm wondering about Pandain, what made him gain more confidence in his scumread of KelsierSC Day 1?
+ Show Spoiler [Analysis] +
On June 24 2019 23:44 Pandain wrote:
I think Rayn is mafia with kelsier
I think Rayn is mafia with kelsier
On June 25 2019 20:54 Pandain wrote:
Unfortunately I don't have too many useful opinions.
Rayn's reasoning is convoluted enough that's it's hard to understand (and thus make judgments on) his arguments.
I think Slam would actually be a fine lynch, just because I don't have a lot of convidence in anyone and better to lynch someone completely noncontributive.
I agree Grack's roleclaim makes no sense, and I doubt he's doctor, but I'm unsure whether that makes him VT or mafia.
I'm still going to keep my vote on Kelsier because I don't like his responses.
I have strong town reads on you (eversince) and jock.
Anyway feel free to push me but I honestly don't have more thoughts than that
(emphasis mine)Unfortunately I don't have too many useful opinions.
Rayn's reasoning is convoluted enough that's it's hard to understand (and thus make judgments on) his arguments.
I think Slam would actually be a fine lynch, just because I don't have a lot of convidence in anyone and better to lynch someone completely noncontributive.
I agree Grack's roleclaim makes no sense, and I doubt he's doctor, but I'm unsure whether that makes him VT or mafia.
I'm still going to keep my vote on Kelsier because I don't like his responses.
I have strong town reads on you (eversince) and jock.
Anyway feel free to push me but I honestly don't have more thoughts than that
On June 26 2019 04:23 Pandain wrote:
@HF if you're going to lynch a random, might as well lynch Kelsier.
At least we know slam will spam up the thread later when he's free. Kelsier will just always be the same and be lynch bait every lynch in future even if town.
@HF if you're going to lynch a random, might as well lynch Kelsier.
At least we know slam will spam up the thread later when he's free. Kelsier will just always be the same and be lynch bait every lynch in future even if town.
On June 26 2019 04:43 Pandain wrote:
Anyway I don't even know if I will defend myself much anyway.
If I was you guys I would probably vote me anyway. Great news is that we lynch scum day 1 so mislynching me isn't a big deal.
I'll just say that yeah I thought Slam was a decent lynch if we had no idea what to do, but I grew increasingly certain KSC was scum. And it still seemed unlikely to me especially later that with the votes this close a mafia would be lynched. And I think this is true, if even 2 mafia were active then it would have been easy to force another lynch.
But yeah anyway sometimes in mafia you're wrong and you end up hard-defending the mafia with three minutes to go. What you gonna do
Anyway I don't even know if I will defend myself much anyway.
If I was you guys I would probably vote me anyway. Great news is that we lynch scum day 1 so mislynching me isn't a big deal.
I'll just say that yeah I thought Slam was a decent lynch if we had no idea what to do, but I grew increasingly certain KSC was scum. And it still seemed unlikely to me especially later that with the votes this close a mafia would be lynched. And I think this is true, if even 2 mafia were active then it would have been easy to force another lynch.
But yeah anyway sometimes in mafia you're wrong and you end up hard-defending the mafia with three minutes to go. What you gonna do
To me, Pandain's increased suspicion of KelsierSC seems to come out of nowhere, it feels fabricated. His initial vote honestly feels like a pressure vote, then he seems to treat him not too differently from a random lynch. I just don't understand what would make him get increasingly more confident that KelsierSC was mafia over time, and more importantly I don't see that reflected in his posts, until after Alakaslam became the leading wagon.
Also, I just noticed Pandain stopped being suspicious of KelsierSC and Shapelog, huh?
+ Show Spoiler [More analysis] +
On June 26 2019 19:25 Pandain wrote:
Honestly the slam post on Eywa puts me against thinking he's scum, which is why I'm pretty certain there's at least one (if not both) scum between Kelsier and Shape.
(along with many similar posts and explanations for why at least one of KelsierSC/Shapelog have to be mafia)Honestly the slam post on Eywa puts me against thinking he's scum, which is why I'm pretty certain there's at least one (if not both) scum between Kelsier and Shape.
On June 26 2019 19:12 Pandain wrote:
In my opinion, Eversince is practically confirmed town. Jock, Rayn, and Trefel are 98% town.
Grack and Ewya are null to slightly town.
Keslier and Shape are likely mafia.
In my opinion, Eversince is practically confirmed town. Jock, Rayn, and Trefel are 98% town.
Grack and Ewya are null to slightly town.
Keslier and Shape are likely mafia.
On June 26 2019 21:04 Pandain wrote:
I'm upgrading Kels to a null-read and downgrading Shape to a slight scum read.
Also making Grack null.
I'm upgrading Kels to a null-read and downgrading Shape to a slight scum read.
Also making Grack null.
On June 27 2019 07:19 Pandain wrote:
Extremely extremely town read on Grack that will never change unless/until more people claim.
So that leaves Shape/Kelsier/Eywa/Jock for last possible scum.
Don't think the last two are scum, but it's possible. First two options are afkers so it's hard so it's basically a coin flip maybe between the two. Honestly though I haven't done a heavy enough analysis to choose which one I will definitely pick, so I will analyze all the four tomorrow hopefully.
What is this read progression? He went from Shapelog and KelsierSC as mafia to null on KelsierSC (!) and downgrading (!!!) Shapelog to a slight scum read, while previously thinking Shapelog was mafia.Extremely extremely town read on Grack that will never change unless/until more people claim.
So that leaves Shape/Kelsier/Eywa/Jock for last possible scum.
Don't think the last two are scum, but it's possible. First two options are afkers so it's hard so it's basically a coin flip maybe between the two. Honestly though I haven't done a heavy enough analysis to choose which one I will definitely pick, so I will analyze all the four tomorrow hopefully.
Honestly I don't know what to to think of this, it feels mafia-motivated, like he started to doubt and then followed the thread sentiment. But sometimes I feel like town is more likely to mess up like this rather than mafia, as mafia is more careful...
Pandain, I'd definitely like to know what was going on with this post, if possible.
Looking back on Pandain's filter, he really hasn't done that much work... He's been very active, probably the most active player in the game (particularly Night 1), but there hasn't been much real thought there. Mostly he's just been defending himself and explaining things again, often things that other players have been saying too. Admittedly there isn't much new information to analyze or much original thought to be had, but that doesn't entirely excuse him.
All that to say I'm pretty suspicious of Pandain, which is nothing new, but if you wanted words, here are words.
Thanks
! Yeah I think you are so town it hurts, I wanted somebody elses perspective. Maby Pand/Kels(Koshi).? Make sense then?
And what's a mafia game without paranoia?
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