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On May 21 2019 15:10 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2019 15:05 wherebugsgo wrote:
Jock I think conversion is town based on his tone and responses to being called out. He’s pretty self-aware that he’s only focusing on disformation so a part of me wants to help disformation die so he can do other things but actually if you read he is doing things other than tunneling disfo. For example response posts, 775 780 and 787 are all posts that I find would be difficult for scum to fake.
At the moment I think they’re both town though. Hmm... OK Well I can see that you think he is town. Nothing you've posted would convince me that he's town though. I've just looked at those three posts and they all seem NAI to me. I could well imagine mafia posting any of those. Do you think hf is playing differently to usual? Where is his pushing for a lynch? Why i he going for afkers when he never does that.
I don’t think HF is playing particularly out of band here. Right now I’m still rather confused at some events in the game. Based on HF’s style of adding up townreads and lynching through the rest, and what he’s posted so far on feeling unsure about said townreads, I imagine he just hasn’t been able to get enough of a grip on the game and resorted to voting iGrok.
Now that iGrok is back and EU is waking up I fully expect HF to do some reevaluations and if he doesn’t, then I’ll become concerned. I’m also waiting for him to react to certain things I’ve noted and I want to see if his opinions move in a way that I’d expect. So far so good though; my opinion on HF is that he’s a fairly logical player even if sometimes he harps on weird stuff or goes pants-on-head like he did with me last game with his inordinately stupid fake claim red check.
Btw why I pointed out those 3 posts is because I think mafia tend to not try to call as much attention to themselves in non-chalant, repeated ways. It’s especially the case in his responses to Calix, because he essentially says “hey look I can make you look bad too” without OMGUSing, and I think most scum in that situation would not be bold enough to counter like that.
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On May 21 2019 15:34 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2019 15:27 wherebugsgo wrote:On May 21 2019 15:10 Jockmcplop wrote:On May 21 2019 15:05 wherebugsgo wrote:
Jock I think conversion is town based on his tone and responses to being called out. He’s pretty self-aware that he’s only focusing on disformation so a part of me wants to help disformation die so he can do other things but actually if you read he is doing things other than tunneling disfo. For example response posts, 775 780 and 787 are all posts that I find would be difficult for scum to fake.
At the moment I think they’re both town though. Hmm... OK Well I can see that you think he is town. Nothing you've posted would convince me that he's town though. I've just looked at those three posts and they all seem NAI to me. I could well imagine mafia posting any of those. Do you think hf is playing differently to usual? Where is his pushing for a lynch? Why i he going for afkers when he never does that. I don’t think HF is playing particularly out of band here. Right now I’m still rather confused at some events in the game. Based on HF’s style of adding up townreads and lynching through the rest, and what he’s posted so far on feeling unsure about said townreads, I imagine he just hasn’t been able to get enough of a grip on the game and resorted to voting iGrok. Now that iGrok is back and EU is waking up I fully expect HF to do some reevaluations and if he doesn’t, then I’ll become concerned. I’m also waiting for him to react to certain things I’ve noted and I want to see if his opinions move in a way that I’d expect. So far so good though; my opinion on HF is that he’s a fairly logical player even if sometimes he harps on weird stuff or goes pants-on-head like he did with me last game with his inordinately stupid fake claim red check. Btw why I pointed out those 3 posts is because I think mafia tend to not try to call as much attention to themselves in non-chalant, repeated ways. It’s especially the case in his responses to Calix, because he essentially says “hey look I can make you look bad too” without OMGUSing, and I think most scum in that situation would not be bold enough to counter like that. OK thanks for explaining... I'll bear that in mind as he posts more. IMO from what he has posted so far that isn't nearly enough to make me townread him or downgrade my scumread on him. I just want him to scumhunt in a way that doesn't seem fake. His sudden about turn from "I only want to talk about disfo" to agreeing with thread sentiment on ruxxar is an example of this. Let's see what happens today. With hf, I'm very much in the 'wait and see' camp with you on that one. He might come here and do his usual hf thing, and you explanation for why he is acting the way he is actually makes sense in context with his previous games. I think I'm getting a little bit thrown with the 72 hour days. The rhythm of the game is different - I think this might be why everything is a little bit wild at the moment... No-one's really motivated o properly push a lynch because there's so much time left.
I’m with you on the time thing and in the next cycle if I’m alive I might backload my activity so that I can observe more in the first 24-48 hours. I think I probably pushed ruxxar a bit harder than necessary and traction will be even more difficult in the next 24 hours.
disfo on the other hand I can see picking up traction easily and potentially dying here because even if he hasn’t taken votes seemingly a good 2/3 of the game has said they want to kill him.
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On May 21 2019 15:35 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2019 11:39 wherebugsgo wrote:On May 21 2019 11:30 ruXxar wrote:
Bugs sounding like a broken record and repeating yourself ad nauseam doesnt make the genie pop out of bottle and make your wish of me being mafia come true.
It does however make me think youre just a dumb town tunneling. Unless youre scum buddy with calix trying to deflect his lynch(which i find unlikely after your call out post), youre just stuck in the typical town ego trap of mafia read confirmation bias. Your ego wont allow you to back down from this lynch now that youve put so much into it.
I see no point why you as mafia would keep pushing me at this point.
Thats fine, i get it, ive been there. Ill just ignore you from now on as youre very clearly too deep in the hole to think rationally any longer.
I do want to bring attention to the huge momentum swing we’ve had in activity from certain players.
The beginning of the game was a big shitshow dominated by the presence of rayn and hf. Both of which have gone either completely silent(rayn) or currently do not give a shit(hf)
Rayn really outed himself in a dumb way that i dont think mafia would do. He took a what i would consider big gamble by goung full retard. He was on the chopping block for a while but made it out alive. Hes very likely town at this point.
Hf on the other hand, is currently playing a masterful scum game. Hes controlling his thread presence well, but has basically taken no hard scum stances on anyone. Hes wobbling and flaky in his reads and he refuses to take a stance on the main wagons by either defending or pushing them (calix and me).
Lately he seems very content with where the thread is heading and is very indifferent to the outcome of this lynch, despite claiming that i was not scum earlier and refusing to make up a fresh opinion.
I see no real motivation behind his actions besides his content in letting this lynch play out.
HF reeks of scum and is almost certain to flip mafia at this point, summing up the development of his thread interaction, lack of real motivation and indifference to the current situation.
Tldr:
Bugs is dumbo town.
Rayn is town.
HF is mafia.
##vote holyflare
I respect that this is a pretty bold move, and you're probably going to get a lot of town reads for this post. This post is about to seed a lot of problems and basically derails whatever momentum your case was getting. Bravo. I don't get why in a million years you would ever do this as a townie though. Like literally no one is going to lynch HF with you today, and everything you've mentioned here requires some serious twisted logic to ignore a lot of reasonable evidence that HF is town, elements of which YOU YOURSELF POINTED OUT EARLIER IN THE GAME. Not only did you throw away your vote, you basically ensured no one is going to listen to you at all for the rest of the game. like what happened to Calix vs Conversion? That's just dropped off a cliff now? What happened to this: On May 20 2019 09:38 ruXxar wrote:On May 20 2019 07:39 Holyflare wrote:On May 20 2019 07:37 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On May 20 2019 07:29 disformation wrote:On May 20 2019 07:25 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
List of shit because I want to.
Town reads
VE
HF (god help me)
Mafia reads
Ruxxar
Calix
Disinformation
Null
Everyone else where is jock? or are you withholding that read (i am super curious after you asked everyone to comment on it) until everyone commented on it? -.- Anyone else interested that he wonders where my jock read is but doesn't give a fuck that I put him as mafia ? I think that's more a townie mindset? He's not concerned about what your read of him is (something mafia are normally hyper aware of) and is more concerned where you put a figure that people are talking about (Jock). Stuff like that, even if little, leads me to think disfo isn't that bad looking. At least for now, which is extremely superficially atm. just want to put in my filter that this is a super townie post by hf. and this: On May 20 2019 04:47 ruXxar wrote:
- hf looks townie, i love when he gets riled up.
??? it seems like you're "progressing your reads" just because some people complained that you weren't doing that and now you're just flailing Wbg you are town but just bad.
Yeah, true.
Why don’t we kill disfo then? I’m the only one it seems who thinks he might be town and I’m not even sure of that. I’m not going to get ruxxar killed at this point, I’m too lazy to try hard and tunnel further especially when I’ll just exhaust myself arguing about it.
##vote disformation
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If mafia were abusing me reading a town ruxxar as mafia why did only BC sheep me?
I might be bad but I literally don’t get that one. Up until what iGrok just posted there was very little indication anyone would vote ruxxar besides BC
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Nah, that’s jubjub logic
You could read into HF’s filter and come to literally whatever conclusion you want about him if you’re primed beforehand with “HF is master scum and he’s manipulating us all”
Jock in particular would probably be the player most susceptible to something like that because he has very little experience finding scum
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Actually I take that back, BC didn’t really even sheep me, he identified ruxxar before I did
I highly doubt BC is scum here and we’re not killing him d1 anyway
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On May 21 2019 15:58 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2019 15:56 wherebugsgo wrote:
Actually I take that back, BC didn’t really even sheep me, he identified ruxxar before I did
I highly doubt BC is scum here and we’re not killing him d1 anyway Yes. My problem is not idebtifying. I have a problem with how he saw how scummy the Calix post was but then let that die and used thread sentiment to push Ruxxar over Calix.
I mean we can just ask him why he did that, I think it’s fairly obvious though. Ruxxar voted Calix before he could really get in much of a word on Calix.
If someone comes in and posts the exact same post as your top scum read, but then votes your top scum read, I’d think you’d also go wtf one of these two have to be scum and perhaps both are. I imagine BC was fine voting ruxxar over calix because 1. They did the same thing and ruxxar votes calix, which makes ruxxar look worse because of the self-contradiction and 2. I agreed on ruxxar but not on calix and i’m pretty sure BC and I are mutually townreading each other
However he has only one vote and I’m sure if we asked him BC would probably be fine with killing Calix atm too.
Also this:
On May 21 2019 09:49 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Yeah. Bugs you can stay in my town circle.
Anyone wondering why anyone (mainly bugs and myself)
Are on ruxxar.
1) his first post called out someone for being mafia. This post however was near identical to the person he called mafia.
2) when pushed on said read he highlighted one aspect that made him think calix was red. Which was a read on bugs.
3) subsequently from then he has said town reads, been ok to just swap to other likely wagons (with near no stated reason) and thrown shade without solid commitment to anything.
4) active lurking.
All these things are mafia traits. As such I believe he has a higher likelihood to flip scum. People can keep looking at other people. I mean I want people to keep hunting for the other scum. However the lack of anyone wanting to even comment on ruxxar while trying to bring igrok/calix/anyone else forward is odd.
See point #1
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Also “he let Calix sentiment die” is straight up false, he never opposed lynching Calix and continually called Calix scum. If anything Calix’s own responses and my comments both contributed to Calix being less suspected.
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On May 21 2019 16:06 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2019 11:30 ruXxar wrote:
Bugs sounding like a broken record and repeating yourself ad nauseam doesnt make the genie pop out of bottle and make your wish of me being mafia come true.
It does however make me think youre just a dumb town tunneling. Unless youre scum buddy with calix trying to deflect his lynch(which i find unlikely after your call out post), youre just stuck in the typical town ego trap of mafia read confirmation bias. Your ego wont allow you to back down from this lynch now that youve put so much into it.
I see no point why you as mafia would keep pushing me at this point.
Thats fine, i get it, ive been there. Ill just ignore you from now on as youre very clearly too deep in the hole to think rationally any longer.
I do want to bring attention to the huge momentum swing we’ve had in activity from certain players.
The beginning of the game was a big shitshow dominated by the presence of rayn and hf. Both of which have gone either completely silent(rayn) or currently do not give a shit(hf)
Rayn really outed himself in a dumb way that i dont think mafia would do. He took a what i would consider big gamble by goung full retard. He was on the chopping block for a while but made it out alive. Hes very likely town at this point.
Hf on the other hand, is currently playing a masterful scum game. Hes controlling his thread presence well, but has basically taken no hard scum stances on anyone. Hes wobbling and flaky in his reads and he refuses to take a stance on the main wagons by either defending or pushing them (calix and me).
Lately he seems very content with where the thread is heading and is very indifferent to the outcome of this lynch, despite claiming that i was not scum earlier and refusing to make up a fresh opinion.
I see no real motivation behind his actions besides his content in letting this lynch play out.
HF reeks of scum and is almost certain to flip mafia at this point, summing up the development of his thread interaction, lack of real motivation and indifference to the current situation.
Tldr:
Bugs is dumbo town.
Rayn is town.
HF is mafia.
##vote holyflare
I think this is a mafia post.
Hell yes convince these jubjubs to kill ruxxar please, I haven’t been able to do it myself
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On May 21 2019 16:07 Koshi wrote:
Calix felt way worse. Wayyyyy worse.
fuck off, are you scum with ruxxar?
Like this is just not based on anything at all, they made almost identical posts and then ruxxar voted Calix. Therefore BC is scum because he called them both scummy??
Gtfo this is a garbage take if real
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rayn has a good chance to be scum this game, especially if ruxxar is scum. His disappearances are too convenient and he’s pushing a disformation lynch by proxy
I think the disformation push is the mafia-pushed wagon here (not to say conv is scum, just that I think disformation has too many people suspicious of him for it to be entirely town-influenced)
VE is a coinflip. Could go either way there. Same on Koshi but I lean more town lately.
Best bet is we kill ruxxar and get some clarity
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On May 21 2019 16:25 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2019 16:23 Holyflare wrote:
Man I forgot about artanis he can go into null to scummy. I actually think he has a good chance of being mafia. Actually read his filter and it's not that bad. He can go fringe town. Can't remember what his mafia range is but I wouldn't say what he's posted would be out of it. Quite bc centric.
my current mafia list, 25% is baseline:
ruxxar - 80%
VE - 50-75%
rayn - 50%
Koshi - 25%
iGrok I still have at baseline because he still hasn't done much, but it's 3:30 EST so we'll have time tomorrow hopefully. First impression so far so good, especially because he wants to kill ruxxar & disfo and those aren't super whacky opinions to have
Koshi I had scummier than baseline until last page where we talked about BC. However that was purely based on malleability of his opinion.
Rayn I have scummy because he used Koshi as a proxy to throw shade on disfo.
VE I want you to get back to me on
ruxxar best lynch
everyone else in the game I've found enough reasons to be town that I don't want to lynch them today.
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On May 21 2019 16:31 iGrok wrote:
Man, I'm out of practice. I really want to feel like calix is mafia, but I can tell if its because she is making bad aggro on me and I'm overreacting.
It doesn't help that I have no idea how good/bad/experienced calix is. My initial key moments for her were:
Calix
HF / Jock good, rayn bad, wbg probably good
-Honestly really basic post. easy to make if less experienced scum
stop calling me scum for sheeping, I'm gonna keep sheeping because reasons
Its a fucking VE / rayn conspiracy
Total reversal, VE/dis good, conv/rux bad
BC is scummy because he's... drawing attention away from me... by bringing me up when other lurkers are being focused more?
Only positive thing I know about calix right now is that I like her playstyle. Periodic summaries - its what I typically tried to do as well.
But like I said, I'm self-aware enough to realize that I may just be reacting incorrectly. Thoughts?
Calix is a hard read for me as well but I lean toward town because I felt a genuine sense of trying to figure out the game. For instance, I think it's a rare scum that would write this post:
On May 21 2019 08:44 Calix wrote:
I personally don't see a problem with discussing people even if they're not likely to die today. But clearly this is something you dislike.
You say it's scummy how difficult it is to get votes on ruxxar and that people defend him. I find it scummy that Conversion is largely ignored. When I am less tired, I'll look into ruxxar again but my vision's going double, lol.
It's even weirder that of the main 'trains', only one person [ruxxar] has any case against him. Nobody has a good reason to kill me ['tone' or 'meta' or 'sheeping' aren't reasons]. Meanwhile my main reason for scum-reading Conversion is because I think he's pretending to tunnel disformation to avoid commenting on the rest of the game. Which is not really a case either.
TL;DR: These trains are really shoddy for almost 48 hours of work.
I think this is a sentiment that townies who are trying to figure out the game should share at this time and it's also a big reason why I read one certain player as scum, because he does not seem to share this same urgency/concern.
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On May 21 2019 16:37 iGrok wrote:
@bugs I have Koshi as my towniest read.
Yeah HF also reads Koshi as town and I'll freely admit I don't really know how to read Koshi very well. I think he's just sort of a leftover for me in case one of ruxxar/VE/rayn is not actually scum here.
I could alternatively be wrong on Calix but I highly doubt that, especially because ruxxar pushed Calix.
The only other potential question marks are disfo, conversion, you, and Artanis, and for each of you I have good reasons to think you're town.
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On May 21 2019 16:50 Jockmcplop wrote:
WBG can you explain what you mean when you say that rayn is using koshi as a proxy to attack disfo?
I don't get how.
as Koshi said above:
On May 21 2019 11:31 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Koshi does disformation look townie?
On May 21 2019 15:38 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2019 15:35 Koshi wrote:On May 21 2019 11:31 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Koshi does disformation look townie? No. I am waiting to see townie but nope. Okay if you say so then hes probably mafia.
On May 21 2019 16:37 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Koshi are you around in like 5 hrs?
one explanation is that town-rayn is buddying koshi because neither HF nor I were talking to him in a way that he wanted but I find that less likely because he was completely absent during the time period that he says he's normally active. Once the pressure stopped on him rayn stopped participating, and that jives with what I'd expect from scum rayn because when I played with him on the same team he seemed like he couldn't handle the stress of being scum
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682 is this:
On May 20 2019 21:56 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2019 22:58 VisceraEyes wrote:
I think today (irl, first 24 hours) would be a lot more productive if everyone operated under the assumption that A) rayn is not lynchable and B) bugs is not lynchable. My reasoning is this: from what I've seen both of them are going to be relatively active during this cycle, and there's a non-zero chance that they're both town. IF they're both town, there's a >50% chance that this thread is completely ruined by the end if this first 24 hours. So in the spirit of getting everyone to look at the game holistically, I'd like it if everyone just IGNORED rayn and bugs today (first 24 hours) and then if we still want to lynch into them then we pull them back into the pool next day.
To that end I'm going to unvote and reread everything. Quite unlikely, but I am going to be so amused if the scumteam is something like VE/WBG/Rayn.
HF:
On May 21 2019 16:49 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2019 16:33 iGrok wrote:On May 21 2019 16:23 Holyflare wrote:
Scummy:
Igrok (literally just summary post with no conclusions yet) Duh. I literally just caught up on the thread in the last 15 minutes, but have been commenting a bit on my thoughts as I read through. How I'm the only one in your scum list, and not in the null pile, makes no sense. Because I already had a reason to scum read you and posting the summaries hasn't changed that? If you do good with the work then there's always room to change? Dunno what to tell you buddy.
I don't think iGrok is the lynch today. I'm not seeing how he's scum here.
I'd rather you help me lynch ruxxar and help me understand what alignment koshi is here.
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On May 21 2019 17:12 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2019 16:58 wherebugsgo wrote:
[....] when I played with him (rayn) on the same team he seemed like he couldn't handle the stress of being scum See how dumb this person is. 
Thanks for confirming me as town
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On May 21 2019 17:25 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2019 17:01 wherebugsgo wrote:682 is this: On May 20 2019 21:56 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On May 19 2019 22:58 VisceraEyes wrote:
I think today (irl, first 24 hours) would be a lot more productive if everyone operated under the assumption that A) rayn is not lynchable and B) bugs is not lynchable. My reasoning is this: from what I've seen both of them are going to be relatively active during this cycle, and there's a non-zero chance that they're both town. IF they're both town, there's a >50% chance that this thread is completely ruined by the end if this first 24 hours. So in the spirit of getting everyone to look at the game holistically, I'd like it if everyone just IGNORED rayn and bugs today (first 24 hours) and then if we still want to lynch into them then we pull them back into the pool next day.
To that end I'm going to unvote and reread everything. Quite unlikely, but I am going to be so amused if the scumteam is something like VE/WBG/Rayn. HF: On May 21 2019 16:49 Holyflare wrote:On May 21 2019 16:33 iGrok wrote:On May 21 2019 16:23 Holyflare wrote:
Scummy:
Igrok (literally just summary post with no conclusions yet) Duh. I literally just caught up on the thread in the last 15 minutes, but have been commenting a bit on my thoughts as I read through. How I'm the only one in your scum list, and not in the null pile, makes no sense. Because I already had a reason to scum read you and posting the summaries hasn't changed that? If you do good with the work then there's always room to change? Dunno what to tell you buddy. I don't think iGrok is the lynch today. I'm not seeing how he's scum here. I'd rather you help me lynch ruxxar and help me understand what alignment koshi is here. Finding out koshi's alignment is a priority for me too in the next 12 hours. He seems to have strong opinions that don't follow with thread sentiment so if we can figure this one out some other things might fall into place. How are we gonna go about it?
The most foolproof way would be just to kill him
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I’m going to pretend rayn, Koshi, and VE all don’t exist in this game until d2 and I implore you all to do the same thing.
Literally none of them have contributed anything useful all game and sadly there is a high chance at least one of them is town. We get the short end of the stick in determining their alignments later.
On VE, if it’s unclear why he’s in my scumpile: VE is eventually going to come back and if he’s reasonable it’ll be obvious fairly quickly. However he’s already gotten so many things uncharacteristically wrong and dodged so many questions that it’s better to leave him alone and see if he does something constructive with the space rather than bait him into arguments where he’ll undoubtably bloat the thread as either alignment
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On May 21 2019 17:37 Holyflare wrote:
Personally, I think ruxxar was perfectly correct to call me mafia. I had a high burst of activity and then have completely waffled and disappeared as people get more active.
What I don't like is that it was opportunistic. He'd town read me before afaik, arbitrarily decided that between rayn and I that I somehow became mafia and then wrote the narrative on me.
He dropped all his other reads for that too. Essentially I'm the lynch bait currently and he took it. Who else is he supposed to push to look good other than a high profile sitting duck that people can't disagree with his read on?
Why are you not responding to me
I find this analysis weird though, why on earth do you think you’re the lynch bait here? If anything it’s Calix or disformation.
I agree that it’s a scum vote but I think it’s more a vote in line with “if I vote HF here no one will believe I’d have the balls to do that as scum” because you weren’t on any radars and weren’t likely to be lynched given the vote spread
He has consistently just disappeared after every short burst of activity and his “progressions” are just odd. As you pointed out he just completely dropped the Calix/conversion business; what happened to one of them being scum?
He also had a set up into calling BC scum but dropped that too. No idea why he mentions rayn in his post on you either, just seems like a forced mention especially because rayn was nearly completely absent for 24 hours.
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EPT
