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Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
March 11 2019 12:11 GMT
#7061
On March 11 2019 20:53 Acrofales wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 11 2019 20:53 Pandain wrote:
Acro were you required to shoot day2 or did you have a choice to save your shot

Could have saved, but I was expecting to die. Was quite surprised I didn't.
this is fair

I thought u before rayn
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
March 11 2019 12:12 GMT
#7062
On March 11 2019 20:59 Acrofales wrote:
As for why damdred, here's where I look at what I thought of the 3 guys I could shoot in N2:
Show nested quote +
On March 08 2019 19:26 Acrofales wrote:
Reading through Damdred's filter gives me a big fat nothingburger. So he's scum.


Show nested quote +
On March 09 2019 08:59 Acrofales wrote:
Chezinu
I can't get a read on him one way or the other, and he has stopped playing entirely.

Pandain
Host wifom reasons to read him town. Beyond that no clue really.

dqmdred wasnt a bad shot

Heck i thibk i even asked for it

Its mainly i woulda shot chez over damdred. Meh.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17918 Posts
March 11 2019 13:31 GMT
#7063
On March 11 2019 05:36 kitaman27 wrote:
Day Three Vote Count

Ace (9): Oatsmaster, Rels, Jockmcplop, Chezinu, sicklucker, Ticktock, [UoN]Sentinel, LightningStrike, Acrofales
Chezinu (6): Alakaslam, Tumblewood, Vivax, Fecalfeast, Grackaroni, Onegu
Tubesock (1): Mr. Wiggles
Mr. Wiggles (1): Meapak_Ziphh

Not voting (6): ExO_, Tubesock, Pandain, darthfoley, Mocsta, Ace

Ace is currently set to be lynched.

Please let us know if you notice any mistakes. The deadline is Sunday, Mar 10 11:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in .



This was the situation 2 1/2 hours before the deadline. Note the 0 votes on sentinel

On March 11 2019 08:00 Dandel Ion wrote:
Day Three final Vote Count

[UoN]Sentinel (10): Pandain, Grackaroni, Mocsta, Ace, Ticktock, Acrofales, LightningStrike, Mr. Wiggles, Tumblewood, Meapak_Ziphh
Ace (7): Oatsmaster, Rels, Jockmcplop, Chezinu, [UoN]Sentinel, darthfoley, Vivax
Chezinu (4): Alakaslam, Fecalfeast, Onegu, sicklucker

Not voting (2): ExO_, Tubesock

[UoN]Sentinel is lynched.

Please let us know if you notice any mistakes. The deadline is Sunday, Mar 10 11:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in .

That is at the deadline. That is a huge shift and I think we can definitely get some information from there. There wasn't really anything new on sentinel, per se. My general "feel" of the thread was that nobody seemed particularly keen on lynching Ace or Chez, so we just kinda got a last-minute wagon going on sentinel, starting with Pandain putting him forward with this:
+ Show Spoiler [Pandain starting the mood change in th…] +

On March 11 2019 04:53 Pandain wrote:
The crux of the Ace case is that he voted HF as an attempt to push him for a lynch the following day, and that he is not as active as other players.

The problem with the first point is that Ace was actively arguing both nights for HF to be vigi'd. If you are saying that this was all a "set-up", then he was actively trying to ruin that same setup. I also don't believe the second point to be important. I think he's made great points the whole time, and has been a hell of a lot more obvious and useful than other people with far greater post counts.

I also don't really agree with the Chezinu lynch. I'll admit I can never really read the guy, but you guys are lynching him over the counter claim right? How do we know he's not actually a mad hatter? Is two mad hatters that crazy? It's pretty obvious to me with three vig's and a backup cop that this is not a normal game. Kita probably wanted to go out with a bang and two mad hatters would be perfect with that.

Chezinu definitely could be scum, but he's not the first person I would lynch.

I'm still going through other filters based on the votes the past two days and will be suggesting someone. Anyone else uncomfortable with these votes and want to start a new one?


On March 11 2019 05:46 Pandain wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 05 2019 01:16 kitaman27 wrote:
Day One Vote Count

Mayor
Holyflare (10): Tubesock, Alakaslam, Holyflare, rsoultin, Ace, Mr. Wiggles, BloodyC0bbler, Jockmcplop, Mocsta, [UoN]Sentinel
Palmar (8): Palmar, Ticktock, Meapak_Zipphh, Acrofales, Vivax, WaveofShadow, Grackaroni, Conversion



Here are the votes from when the holyflare-palmar mayor was closest. At this point, it was known that HF wanted to lynch Palmar. I went through everyone's filter on holyflare's wagon, and was looking specifically for someone who voted for HF but then later criticized and wanted to lynch him for doing exactly what he said he would do.

Of these, Alakaslam, Ace, Sentinel, all are guilty of this. This is highly highly suspicious, contradictory, and makes perfect sense from a mafia perspective. I think we should be lynching out of these three.

I'm giving Ace a pass for the moment because he heavily argued for HF to be vigi'd during both nights, and otherwise is posting pretty townie (even if infrequent).

I would put heavy bets on Alakaslam and Sentinel both being mafia.

Furthermore, Sentinel is particuarly guilty of:
1. Being pretty active day 1 but never commenting on if he thought Palmar is scum or not. Considering that he is voting for HF, that he himself had different scum reads but never tried to convince HF, this is a huge red flag.
2.
Show nested quote +
On March 07 2019 11:29 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:

I think at this point lynching HF would be more beneficial to town based on at least D1/early N1 actions. I haven't been around for a lot of the last two days but it seems HF was outright malicious whereas BH has kinda been playing dumb. So I'm voting HF.

##Vote: Holyflare

Sentinel calls HF "outright malicious", when he himself voted for him and never tried to change his view. Huge cognitive dissonance.


3. Had a huge town read on Ace last night and then comes in, votes Ace, and leaves immediately. After getting called out he says he will "explain later." Any townie would at least write something about why they did a complete 180; from my perspective he messed up with his fake viewpoints and didn't know how to justify.


Some credit/blame for the mood swing also goes to Wiggles, because he also didn't want to lynch Ace or Chez.



I'd say that the way this wagon went down would make Pandain confirmed town if Sentinel was something other than traitor. As is, we need two separate lines of analysis. See below for thoughts. First we only have the timeline events.

After Pandain makes the case and votes, things go quite fast, with really only one vote going the other way. It's worth noting that the first votes are NOT people voting for Ace, but just generally undecideds.

Noteable events:

  • Ace makes a long rambly post to save his ass, and it ends with wanting to lynch sentinel... who gained traction in the time he took to write the post:
    On March 11 2019 06:35 Ace wrote:
    Lol I just finished that long post, checked vote thread, and see 3 ppl voted Sent before me. Fuck if he flips Town I'm gonna look scummy :/

    Didn't flip town, but flipped "maybe scum didn't know he was scum too". Timestamp on Pandain's vote: 05:46. Timestamp on Ace's long post: 06:34, aka 48 minutes later. Did it take Ace 48 minutes to write this post? Or was he reading thread sentiment and going whatever which way to save his bacon? Good question. I don't have an answer. He was definitely not writing the case at the start of the wagon tho, as this is already 5 minutes after Pandain makes his case and votes:

    On March 11 2019 05:51 Ace wrote:
    Wow a guy goes afk for a day and there's a lynch train

    Rels, you're reading me way off. Iirc your first point of contention with me had to do with HF. I clearly admitted I read him wrong before he died.

    I also think you should be thinking about the motives behind those NKs. I had no serious heat on me from Rayn/Wos/Rsoul/ (the 3 non vigi shots). Even if they were HFs defenders as scum I would still need to convince people to lynch him next day. I did not. Once I saw the BC flip I instantly townread HF.

    In fact I think if anyone looks bad for those nightkills, it's you. You had QT interaction with 2 of them did you not?

  • TT is the first who is not an undecided, but already had his vote on Ace to start swaying the other way:
    On March 11 2019 06:45 Tictock wrote:
    Anyone else around to rock the boat on today's snooze fest Chez v Ace lynch and wanna join this Sential train for Town Glory?

    The reasoning seems... funny. He just got into the thread after earlier agreeing to lynch ace, and calls it a snooze fest, which he wants to rock the boat on. I did go further back through his filter and he was definitely scumreading sentinel, so it's not outright scummy, but it is weird reasoning here.

  • DF is the only guy to flip the other way in the middle of this:
    On March 11 2019 06:55 darthfoley wrote:
    Bah bah black sheep mode initiated. Don’t have the energy or time to think for myself this cycle. Acro I follow your lead wheresver it take me

    #Vote: Ace

    Note that he doesn't actually do that: he only follows me onto Ace, not when I hop to sentinel a bit later. Really scummy? Or really lazy town? Gotta reread DF.

  • Two contrary players try to get a slam train on the road: tumblewood and sicklucker. Not quite sure what's going on with that. Tumblewood consolidates before day's end, and I don't actually mind this reasoning:
    On March 11 2019 07:11 Tumblewood wrote:
    + i think there is a lot to learn from a chaotic deadline. i will consolidate if it's not happening and there are less than ten minutes left, but fuck it i'm voting
    + Show Spoiler +
    gonna feel like such a scrub if he's town



    Sicklucker, however, is a different story: he also gives up on slam, but still shows he really doesn't want to lynch either ace or sentinel (despite being on the ACE wagon earlier when it was Ace vs Chezinu)... and instead hops off from wanting to kill slam to voting right alongside him on an irrelevant wagon. Very weird behaviour from SL here. Will filter dive him before night's end, but this voting behaviour looks like scum to me.

  • The hammer belongs to LightningStrike:
    On March 11 2019 07:31 LightningStrike wrote:
    fuck it witching to Sent I was getting cold feet on Ace dunno if it's because of his reputation or what. Sent is the better lynch.
    ##Unvote
    ##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel

    The reasoning is very similar to mine just a few minutes earlier, so gonna call him town for this.
  • Vivax tries to get the Ace lynch back on the road:
    On March 11 2019 07:51 Vivax wrote:
    It's not even about Sentinel, it's about how people like Grack and TT show a pinpoint burst of effort I haven't seen before in this game.

    I don't actually mind the reasoning. Chezinu wagon is completely irrelevant at this point, and he chooses between sentinel and ace. If ace is town and scum knows sentinel is the traitor, this is a scum panic move tho. Too much wifom for me at this point to say anything much about this.


Open questions:

@Grack: mind taking your color pencils to this list you said is a town lynch:
On March 11 2019 07:01 Grackaroni wrote:
If this is the wagon of a scum lynch then I'll happily take the egg on my face and adjust my reads accordingly but I really doubt it.

Ace (9): Oatsmaster, Rels, Jockmcplop, Chezinu, sicklucker, [UoN]Sentinel, LightningStrike, Acrofales, darthfoley



In general, I need some work from you.
On March 11 2019 07:14 Grackaroni wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 11 2019 07:13 Tumblewood wrote:
On March 11 2019 07:09 Tictock wrote:
On March 11 2019 07:07 Pandain wrote:
I'm down with lynching Slam but I think Sentinel is worse for the reasons I posted earlier. I don't think others are there quite yet.


Sent lynch will overall give us more info in the case he flips scum. Some good associative reads can probably be built.

Slam would be removing a question mark.

I'd keep my vote on Sent every time.

what do you think you will learn if sent flips town/mafia?

If Sent flips mafia then the Palmar mayor vote gives a lot of info.

Gogogo Remember we need to take both scenarios into account: scum knows sentinel is one of them, and scum has no clue who the traitor is (or even that there is one? presumably traitor does affect KP, but with this weird setup, who knows)



What do we learn from this:

1. Pandain is town. Reason:
Ace and Padain are not scum together. If they were, that coordination of the lynch diversion would be a lot smoother. No way they have Pandain make a case, and then Ace makes his "huge case" half an hour later. So this makes Pandain quite confidently town, because if he's scum, and Ace isn't, there is NO POINT AT ALL in trying to divert the lynch. Ace might still be scum.

Sorry for the hard townread at night

2. The what-ifs:

Case 1: Scumteam knows sentinel is scum:
This makes TT and LS quite confidently town. Even if Ace is scum, he'd have to have an important role to bother pushing the lynch from him onto another scummer. It also makes people trying to divert the wagon look like shit: DF, TW, SL are very suspect in this case. Especially DF and SL.

Case 2: Scumteam has no idea about sentinel:
This one is harder, because it diverges again into two different cases:
Case 2A: Ace is scum
In this case, this was an opportunistic lynch, when the wagon on sentinel started forming, they used this to save their buddy. I'd especially suspect those that had stood on the sidelines up until this point: Grack and Mocsta really just sorta hopped on after hanging on other wagons all day. TT, LS and myself obviously get egg on our faces too.

Case 2B: Ace is town
In this case, scum doesn't really give a shit. They might get adventurous and try to stay off both wagons, but I don't think they really give a shit. Mostly it's down to vote reasons here, and DF and SL look most suspect here.


So, will be looking a lot closer into SL and DF with what remains of the night. I also think a similar analysis for the Palmar mayor wagon is interesting and look forward to Grack doing this
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
March 11 2019 13:58 GMT
#7064
Darth's ninja vote then exit didn't go unnoticed. Great analysis post.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9695 Posts
March 11 2019 14:08 GMT
#7065
Acre forgot me.
Try TL Mafia!!!
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9695 Posts
March 11 2019 14:12 GMT
#7066
Also post doesn’t mean much on the latter part because we cannot know if scum knew if sent was scum.

So just guessing is meh. I would lean on the Mafia wiki and say they didn’t know.
Try TL Mafia!!!
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
March 11 2019 14:16 GMT
#7067
Nice post acro

Im a bit confused abkut tictock

Your quote and analysis doesnt marry with the conclusion?

What makes him town?
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17918 Posts
March 11 2019 14:21 GMT
#7068
On March 11 2019 23:08 Onegu wrote:
Acre forgot me.

I did. I thought you weren't around at all, but you were and being a rebel for no reason. So add yourself to the wtf wagon for not obviously scummy reasons.

I also missed MZ's late vote. I figured Wiggles' double down on the hammer looked pretty townie, but no clue what to make of that MZ vote. Add him in with DF and SL for more reading.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17918 Posts
March 11 2019 14:30 GMT
#7069
On March 11 2019 23:16 Mocsta wrote:
Nice post acro

Im a bit confused abkut tictock

Your quote and analysis doesnt marry with the conclusion?

What makes him town?

Pandain gets the sentinel wagon rolling, and people start jumping on.

45 minutes later, Ace makes a save-his-butt case on sentinel.

There are 4 possible cases here, right?

Both scum:
This would be pants-on-head level coordination, where pandain sticks his neck out to save Ace's butt, and then Ace goes and echoes similar points after the wagon is already rolling. If sentinel flips town, they are now *both* under heavy suspicion. I guess they could use sentinel as a bus target to save both their butts if they knew he was scum, but why bus off Ace and onto sentinel? But even for a bus this is badly coordinated. So chance of pandain and Ace both being scum is pretty tiny.

Pandain scum and Ace town: instead of pandain just hopping on to lynch a random townie he makes a big case to either lynch a less impressive townie or bus a scum... AFTER he already did his big play to dayvig HF. He's read as town by almost everyone, so why on earth do this! Just sheep and lynch Ace for the ez win.

Pandain town, Ace scum: possible.

Pandain and Ace both town: also possible..

Conclusion: Pandain is town.

As for why I didn't put that at the top? Because I was busy analysing when I realized that and had already forgotten I had written stuff about Pandain at the top.
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
March 11 2019 14:42 GMT
#7070
Hi acro

Nice reply

That bit makes sense. Although i was asking about ticktock

In the quotes u analyse his play as weird. Maybe town. Mahbe not.
In thr conclusion he was put as likely town

Im wondering what part of the analysis drew u towards a more definite town read.thanks
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14276 Posts
March 11 2019 14:53 GMT
#7071
Just woke up and seeing Oats calling MZ scum and Acro and Ace were talking about the scnerios regarding Pandain. Seems like interesting talk will check more closely in a little bit since I am tired still. Will probably check 1 filter before taking a quick nap honestly.
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14276 Posts
March 11 2019 14:59 GMT
#7072
Didn't get much from Marv/Iamp's filters but found a gem from Koshi's filter. Here it is before I take my nap:
On March 05 2019 20:06 Koshi wrote:
My list lynch is now:
HF (vig not on BH)
Wiggles ( Palmar)
Sentinel (Palmar + Tfrel)
Anybody marv currently votes for

I will pick 1 at my pleasure. List will update after lynches but not on nk because those come from mafia.

I am sad Tfrel ended up blue.

Not much more to say and do.

I will now take my nap for about maybe 1 hour?
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9695 Posts
March 11 2019 15:06 GMT
#7073
On February 20 2019 23:38 kitaman27 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 20 2019 19:46 Acrofales wrote:
As this game gets bigger, will the rules be changed? Seems mafia will at the very least need more KP?


Yeah lol. Once we settle on a final player count, I'll update the setup accordingly.

+ Show Spoiler +
Then I'll reveal that you were all tricked into joining Insane Mafia 3




READ THE FUCKING SPOILER!

Somehow I just saw this...
Try TL Mafia!!!
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9695 Posts
March 11 2019 15:07 GMT
#7074
On March 11 2019 23:59 LightningStrike wrote:
Didn't get much from Marv/Iamp's filters but found a gem from Koshi's filter. Here it is before I take my nap:
Show nested quote +
On March 05 2019 20:06 Koshi wrote:
My list lynch is now:
HF (vig not on BH)
Wiggles ( Palmar)
Sentinel (Palmar + Tfrel)
Anybody marv currently votes for

I will pick 1 at my pleasure. List will update after lynches but not on nk because those come from mafia.

I am sad Tfrel ended up blue.

Not much more to say and do.

I will now take my nap for about maybe 1 hour?



What am I supposed to glean from this? Lynch wiggles?
Try TL Mafia!!!
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9695 Posts
March 11 2019 15:08 GMT
#7075
LS really starting to feel you are making posts just to post with no relevant content
Try TL Mafia!!!
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9695 Posts
March 11 2019 15:12 GMT
#7076
Also since I am way to lazy can someone check sents filter and see if he crumbed his role to reach out to scum.


I would make my first post something like.

Thanks really am totally interested, opening rant:


Blah blah blah...

But I always crumb my blue roles...
Try TL Mafia!!!
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14276 Posts
March 11 2019 15:21 GMT
#7077
Just woke up from my nap because my cat was yelling and she took shit near my room so I am still a little awake
On March 12 2019 00:07 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 11 2019 23:59 LightningStrike wrote:
Didn't get much from Marv/Iamp's filters but found a gem from Koshi's filter. Here it is before I take my nap:
On March 05 2019 20:06 Koshi wrote:
My list lynch is now:
HF (vig not on BH)
Wiggles ( Palmar)
Sentinel (Palmar + Tfrel)
Anybody marv currently votes for

I will pick 1 at my pleasure. List will update after lynches but not on nk because those come from mafia.

I am sad Tfrel ended up blue.

Not much more to say and do.

I will now take my nap for about maybe 1 hour?



What am I supposed to glean from this? Lynch wiggles?

The sent read might be why Koshi was killed that's why I posted that. Koshi was depressed coming into his last posts but I think Koshi was killed because of Sent. Thoughts?
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9695 Posts
March 11 2019 15:27 GMT
#7078
On March 12 2019 00:21 LightningStrike wrote:
Just woke up from my nap because my cat was yelling and she took shit near my room so I am still a little awake
Show nested quote +
On March 12 2019 00:07 Onegu wrote:
On March 11 2019 23:59 LightningStrike wrote:
Didn't get much from Marv/Iamp's filters but found a gem from Koshi's filter. Here it is before I take my nap:
On March 05 2019 20:06 Koshi wrote:
My list lynch is now:
HF (vig not on BH)
Wiggles ( Palmar)
Sentinel (Palmar + Tfrel)
Anybody marv currently votes for

I will pick 1 at my pleasure. List will update after lynches but not on nk because those come from mafia.

I am sad Tfrel ended up blue.

Not much more to say and do.

I will now take my nap for about maybe 1 hour?



What am I supposed to glean from this? Lynch wiggles?

The sent read might be why Koshi was killed that's why I posted that. Koshi was depressed coming into his last posts but I think Koshi was killed because of Sent. Thoughts?


Why are you assuming scum knew who sent was?
Try TL Mafia!!!
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain17918 Posts
March 11 2019 15:27 GMT
#7079
On March 11 2019 23:42 Mocsta wrote:
Hi acro

Nice reply

That bit makes sense. Although i was asking about ticktock

In the quotes u analyse his play as weird. Maybe town. Mahbe not.
In thr conclusion he was put as likely town

Im wondering what part of the analysis drew u towards a more definite town read.thanks

Well, TT (and LS) only gets town points if scum knows sentinel is one of them. In that case, I don't see a reason for TT to swap wagons. I guess if Ace is a power role, and they chat about it in the QT and decide to bus the fuck out of sentinel to save ace's butt? But then you'd think TT would come in with something more forceful than his super hesitant stuff. So TT being so non-committal about his voteswitch makes sense for scum only if they think sentinel is town.
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14276 Posts
March 11 2019 15:29 GMT
#7080
So rayn was scumreading Ace at his death unless he changed his read and I didn't see it and Tina's list had Ace looks like a scumlean seeing it not full red? NK looking closer to Ace although iamp did scumread Acro from the look of things. Maybe it was SvS (Sent vs Ace) for yesterday's wagons?
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
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