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I'm not even sure what to make of the last page or two, lol.
I don't think CH is DF or disformation because neither of them are that aggressive. It doesn't matter though.
Also I didn't run through the numbers when it came to the Veteran thing. I just figured that stopping mafia from one-shotting the Veteran by trying to kill the Roleblocker was a good idea. But rayn is correct that it doesn't give town another ML so scrap that idea. I'll stop trying to be fancy with lynching mafia
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Good news, folks. We won't win the award for 2018's Worst Town Performance.
That also means rayn and HF are never SvS, yeah? I can't think of a scenario where that's possible now that Godfather can't have tampered with results.
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Well yes, I think dealing with the cop checks next is a sensible approach. Nobody here thinks rayn vs HF is TvT.
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I just want to point out that people arguing Calix/Oats is a thing are arguing that the mafia strategy was for Oats to vote for mafia D1/3 and NOBODY ELSE.
Makes no sense to argue that Oats threw away his vote on mafia Calix almost every day without even TRYING to vote for a townie. He never wavered or wanted to move.
Occam’s razor points to me being a townie he wanted to ML, not to some insane bussing plan.
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More importantly, Vivax, if you think Calix/HF is a thing, that means you’re claiming to have found 2 mafia by Night 1.
So I will ask you one thing.
Why are you still alive?
Because right now you’re claiming we leave around a guy who scumreads 2 mafia and decide to shoot GB instead on N1. Who was never going to vote for mafia the next day in a HF/Calix world since he would only vote for Rayn, Skynx and maybe CH. (which includes 2/3 mafia in Rayn/CH world)
And not only this, but we decide to leave you around until N4 at least. But you still haven’t considered that MAYBE nobody wants you dead because your reads are well off.
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On April 19 2018 16:42 currentlyhomeless wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2018 16:35 Calix wrote: More importantly, Vivax, if you think Calix/HF is a thing, that means you’re claiming to have found 2 mafia by Night 1.
So I will ask you one thing.
Why are you still alive?
Because right now you’re claiming we leave around a guy who scumreads 2 mafia and decide to shoot GB instead on N1. Who was never going to vote for mafia the next day in a HF/Calix world since he would only vote for Rayn, Skynx and maybe CH. (which includes 2/3 mafia in Rayn/CH world)
And not only this, but we decide to leave you around until N4 at least. But you still haven’t considered that MAYBE nobody wants you dead because your reads are well off. and again let me do the same thing why is HF still alive? rofl
Not even remotely close to the same thing. HF was primarily mafia reading town for a lot of the game. Vivax is claiming here that Vivax found 2 mafia BY N1.
But somehow wasn’t shot ever.
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On April 19 2018 16:44 currentlyhomeless wrote:if youre town youve got to be better than this hf can’t be town here. and his teammate is asking why vivax is still alive when the real question is why hf is still alive lol
ROFL at this hedge. Going “If you’re town” on the obvtown Veteran.
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Need to leave for work, will be back later.
Vivax is probably the kingmaker or whatever it’s called here. This is annoying as he isn’t scumreading a single mafia and isn’t open to anything HF and I say.
I would not mind so much if Vivax had some informed reasons to think HF and I and Oats are a team but he does not. His reads have not changed much over the days and the huge amounts of new information roll off him like water off a car. I do not see how someone like that will change his ways at D5 LYLO.
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Mafia can’t hold their shot, nor do they have any reason to. What are you guys smoking right now? Because it must be something good to think no shot over shooting the VETERAN is a good plan for mafia.
Sorry I mean, that’s a great plan, scum. You should definitely two shot Tubesock :D
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Also Tubesock is 100% town for his claim and how he went about it. This is always true and always makes him irrevocably town. Anyone saying otherwise is bad or greedy scum trying to keep ML options open. Either way they’re bad.
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Didn’t you already say CH scum slipped with the “15 hours” thing? Lol
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I am not sure whether to bite the NK WIFOM.
Because if it's 100% rayn/ CH then they've kinda fucked themselves over by not shooting one of the three people who will vote for them tomorrow.
But maybe they made the kill in the hopes that one of HF/ Calix/ Tubesock get paranoid for this very reason and vote elsewhere. And this would make sense because mafia can try WIFOMing the thread with NKs.
You get the point.
I'm cautiously going ahead with rayn/ CH for now but I might do some actual filter-diving this cycle just to double-check. Because post analysis and votes and shit > NK WIFOM in the end. And I will have the time to do so.
P.S: I agree that the 'no shoot' discussion was super-weird still.
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On April 20 2018 05:35 Holyflare wrote: It's finally one mafia kill I agree with at least.
Why?
Also I don't quite follow your Roleblocker argument. Why would mafia not having a Roleblocker mean they propagate the 'no kill' idea in the thread?
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On April 20 2018 18:44 currentlyhomeless wrote: tube said he is in asia or 1 time zone ahead of me or smth
hf said oats was in asia too
one is tinfoil one is occam’s razor
occam’s razor: hf scumslipped cause afaik oats is american
tinfoil: tube & rayn are scum so the reason they didnt swap to hf is because tube cant be around for deadline
Oats used to live in Singapore, I think.
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This thread makes me understand why people become alcoholics. Because I am way too sober for whatever nonsense is going down here.
But I still want rayn dead. Gotta resolve those cop checks before we hopefully head into our last LYLO and resolve Veteran vs Jailer...
There is too much role WIFOM this game. Annoying.
It's been a really busy day for me today and I'm also enjoying the rare bout of sunshine in the UK. I'll be back with some actual thoughts this evening.
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P.S: I am noting that CH claims to have targeted the same player on consecutive nights.
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Yeah, I found that weird since Doctors/ JKs usually have that limitation. But it's technically allowed, I think.
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After some cursory thought, I'm thinking my reads haven't changed much.
Sure, CH's claim seems too dumb to come from scum but it also doesn't make any sense coming from town. His uncritical acceptance of Tubesock's D3 claim, for example, does not seem legitimate to me. You can evaluate Tubesock and conclude he's more likely town after filter-diving or something but thinking he's just straight up town despite his 2nd Protective claim doesn't square up from a Jailkeeper's POV to me.
In short, I'm concluding that if there's no town motivation behind the claim then it must be mafia even if it makes little sense from mafia perspective.
Rayn can still be mafia because he's seemingly just done a total 180 on his HF read and now thinks one of HF/ himself is Miller (?) but couldn't care less who the hypothetical second mafia in a CH/??? world would be.
This post isn't that intelligent, insightful or even necessarily coherent but I'm too tired right now to care. If Tubesock and/ or HF are mafia then they can count themselves blessed for having the worst town evah!
##vote raynpelikoneet
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On April 21 2018 12:02 currentlyhomeless wrote: rayn why would your first assumption be me & Calix instead of the more obvious me & HF
how are you so sure one of you is a miller?
He claims you're lying and that since HF would never allow you to make the JK claim, HF must be town.
It's a dumb argument but it's indicative of the quality of rayn's arguments this game so no surprises there.
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On April 21 2018 07:50 currentlyhomeless wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2018 06:49 Calix wrote: After some cursory thought, I'm thinking my reads haven't changed much.
Sure, CH's claim seems too dumb to come from scum but it also doesn't make any sense coming from town. His uncritical acceptance of Tubesock's D3 claim, for example, does not seem legitimate to me. You can evaluate Tubesock and conclude he's more likely town after filter-diving or something but thinking he's just straight up town despite his 2nd Protective claim doesn't square up from a Jailkeeper's POV to me.
In short, I'm concluding that if there's no town motivation behind the claim then it must be mafia even if it makes little sense from mafia perspective.
Rayn can still be mafia because he's seemingly just done a total 180 on his HF read and now thinks one of HF/ himself is Miller (?) but couldn't care less who the hypothetical second mafia in a CH/??? world would be.
This post isn't that intelligent, insightful or even necessarily coherent but I'm too tired right now to care. If Tubesock and/ or HF are mafia then they can count themselves blessed for having the worst town evah!
##vote raynpelikoneet have you actually read my posts? Like you say I misrepresent you and then you write that I accepted tube as town with no critical thinking lol. Go back and reread my posts. I toneread tube as town going into d3, before he claimed. Specifically, I thought max one of tube/exo/skynx was scum. Also due to the way D3 tube and exo claim, we killed Skynx. I didn’t really talk about it much in thread except for the miller shit, but I was skeptical of exo at that point more than I was skeptical of tube. However I decided to accept both of the claims eventually because I thought the timing was too good to be scum. Clearly I was wrong. After that, we flipped skynx and I had to reeval. I became less confident in all my townreads, but that’s not something I talk about in thread because townreads are easily manipulable. At the time I thought Vivax might be scum due to the fact that I felt he wasn’t reading the thread at all. Anyway you can go back and reread my posts if you like. Town motivation for my claim is pretty clear. Vivax posted some scenarios before dying. I actually thought he had solved the game with HF & Calix scumteam and that’s why he was going to get shot. If I were scum I would have no reason to shoot Vivax, and then claim jailer when I could have just shot tube and then voted HF with Vivax and rayn.
Yes, I did read your posts and noticed how little you talked about Tubesock up to and including D3. And given that a lot of your defense here is "I didn't post XYZ in the thread/ didn't want to talk about XYZ" it's a bit silly to berate me for 'not reading your posts'.
On April 21 2018 07:56 currentlyhomeless wrote: also Calix, Vivax hadn’t changed his opinion all game.
If I am scum why would I post before day that I think everyone will be alive? If it’s because I am scum, then first of all I would know that not everyone will be alive, and then I claim jailer with a prot on Vivax anyway?? That’s just stupid and makes no sense.
If I were scum and tube is really a vet why wouldn’t I just leave Vivax alive by shooting tube so that my claim comes out stronger?
Like look at Tube’s reaction to my claim. He doesn’t try to refute anything, he just laughs at me saying I protted Vivax and Vivax died on the same night as if that means I’m lying.
Why the fuck have scum done anything this game? Who knows? It's already established that using the "why would I do X as mafia?" argument means almost nothing for anyone's alignments so don't think that's going to work as a defense now.
The only thing that's going to save your hide is you going into Tubesock's filter and telling me how his entire game play comes from mafia. Tubesock is invited to do the same with you.
I'm going to filter Tubesock now. Have been meaning to do this for a while but real life comes first. Also I have to do it within the next hour or two so that Tubesock can see and respond to it.
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