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On January 29 2018 14:49 Mocsta wrote:After re-reading the game: I struggle to consider a world where JAT, Rels, mderg are not town. That leaves Kmatt & BTDT as the last two. I am certain that a Kmatt lynch will close this game out. Theres nothing more to add here, since Kmatt has done nothing more since.
The dark-horse if LYLO did arise is BTDT. Yes - It is likely he that he was RB'd (as town)
However, I refer to dark-horse as my world above is too strong; and without the RB, no one would think BTDT play is indicative of weak-town, let alone confirmed. Some food for thought if it gets there - Voted Day2, but didnt release RB information until fake-claim
- Actively scum read by town leaders early-phase (e.g. RSoultin)
- DF was forced to follow-through with BTDT, because RSoultin was pressuring him due to his alternative scum read on me. Note he goes into significantly more detail trying to convince the thread I am scum compared to his efforts with BTDT
- BTDT is a mafia-alignment award winner for sick bus plays
This is last night. Do Mocsta as scum really prepares his 2 lynches as Kmatt + BTDT ... then shoots BTDT ? Doesn't see likely to me
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On January 30 2018 09:03 Mocsta wrote:
I cant believe that worked haha
can you explain what you were trying to achieve ?
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and this is in wake on the RB talk I was alluding to earlier:
On January 26 2018 21:45 Mocsta wrote:
umm guys.
stop being doo-doo heads
tahts an exact replica of what we discussed
hes either confirmed town, or confirmed scum
yes 100% confirmed.
what isnt is alignment.. i know you are trying, but take a nap please.
On January 26 2018 21:59 Mocsta wrote:
the fact that I think its OK to RB a separate target, to the Kill already supports there is more than one answer
you guys are bickering over your ideologies of how to play the game right
its stupid.
yes teh fakeclaim is unlikley, but its certainly not 100% confirmed.
On January 26 2018 22:42 Mocsta wrote:
The other alternative was they were afraid a medic was out
Like this converdation is ridiculous
Id yoy want ro discuss strategy then weigh all options
Its the definition od tunneled and im glad at least rels can see it
Again
Ifnyou want ro say btdt 99% town go ahead. I tend to agree.
However btst is not 100% confirmed in amy way shape or form
Frankly ita disgraceful to perpetuate that type of non sense to people not reading this as analytically
On January 26 2018 22:46 Mocsta wrote:
Because your statement has an exclusion clause
By definition it is not "confirmed"
I dont give a shit anymore
Bye
On January 26 2018 22:47 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2018 22:46 justanothertownie wrote:
It is very very simple.
Mafia either rbed btdt or they for whatever weird and unlikely reason DID NOT USE THEIR ROLEBLOCK AT ALL. Because any rbed townie would have claimed the rb. precisely You dont knoe Yoy are making an educated assumption and feigning thid as a if you had a cop check
On January 26 2018 22:49 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2018 22:01 Holyflare wrote:On January 26 2018 21:38 justanothertownie wrote:
They shot Kelsier night 1 and DID NOT roleblock him. Noone else claimed the rb.
-> btdt is town unless they didn't use the rb at all Smart. Bullshit Btdt is town "unless" Dont say near confirmed....
On January 26 2018 22:50 Mocsta wrote:
I give a shit about this because this type of thinking leads to a self fulfilling prophecy thay hf is lynched tomorrow
Everyone ahould be approaching this day with open eyes and ears
On January 26 2018 22:56 Mocsta wrote:
Ummm no
Open your eyes
In your mind you made a statement about in your words "neae confirmed"
Now one has openly interpretted as 100% confirmed and thenother indicates full agreement via "smart"
Ithink its relevant and will leave that as my last words.
Scum are convinced BTDT is blue. They roleblocked him repeatedly, and killed him last night. So scum expects BTDT to claim at some point. Do they really get angry when people suddenly assume BTDT is near confirmed town ? Doesn't seem logical to me.
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On January 30 2018 20:04 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On January 19 2018 21:11 mderg wrote:On January 19 2018 21:06 Holyflare wrote:On January 19 2018 20:00 rsoultin wrote:On January 19 2018 19:49 KelsierSC wrote:
Though I disagree with HF on his damdred read, I do want to see more from damdred this day.
Reading through HF's explanation. I could understand that if you were reading a guy as scummy from before. (due to his df/mcosta read) then with that biased you could see his response as panicked.
I thought about the perspective of if I was scum HF/Rels. I think my initial interpretation was wrong.I don't think scum HF and Rels jump on this case and call it good. Especially Rels , if damdred flips town he looks super shady.
I think if Damdred is town then you just soft defend him , in the way I have done tbh, and then look for some random lynch later on, if damdred is lynched then a town goes down and you look good.
I think Mderg did that and maybe df but i'm not 100%.
with btdt I liked something he did early, mentioning the bad read on hf and he read rsoultin as town so I gave him a few plus points. I didn't like his Mcosta is weird with a massive quote post , i'd need to see more though.
At this point i'd lynch between mderg, maybe df then prplhz,kmatt and btdt need to put more into the thread.
To be fair, I think scumRels would be way more likely to do that if there was an alternative lynch going, which there wasn't. It still felt like a half-assed drive-by shooting but I can't say that it makes him scum. Not feeling a mderg lynch. It's not sparkly but I get a little swimming against the current and a little waffley not sure not sure from his filter that just feels towny to me. Not my strongest read, of course, but I'd rather not lynch him. Meeeh btdt's filter is just so weak for me. Hold on. I already forgot specifics. I too get a ray of hope from mderg. Who are you and what did you do to the real holyflare? The bolded nested quote might be interesting. Something Rels did that was shady if damdred flipped. Lots of talk about it.
This is actually pretty wrong. Like, on the contrary. KSC is saying this:
I thought about the perspective of if I was scum HF/Rels. I think my initial interpretation was wrong.I don't think scum HF and Rels jump on this case and call it good. Especially Rels , if damdred flips town he looks super shady.
So he's saying he doesnt think Rels is scum anymore. This is totally backward.
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Koshi had had a good activity and tone at the start, but rereading them they're actually easy to fake. There is nothing of substance in it. Proof is, every "reasons" he posted to support a vote on me was wrong. And not wrong like "I disagree with this interpretation", factually wrong.
On January 30 2018 19:56 Koshi wrote:
And Rels his filter is really bleak. The HF stuff is all great fun but I did the same with Palmar last year.
The total picture is completely missing in Rels his filter. He isnt prodding enough people and he doesnt store and remember good posts in his head.
On the contrary, I refer to other parts of the game a lot. Doesn't make me town 'cause I played a very good scum game. But it never makes me scum.
On January 30 2018 19:59 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On January 19 2018 18:50 mderg wrote:
Trying to shortly summarize my thoughts on everyone
Twat: probably town
kmatt: no idea
Damerion: don't like his tunneling on damdred, could be scum
btdt: no idea
Mocsta: probably town, conversation with rsoultin looks like town on town argument
Rels: just latches onto the damdred wagon and his work is done
rsoultin: probably town
df: meh
damdred: leaning town
prplhz: no idea
Kelsier: leaning towads town very slightly
Holyflare: I would expect more from town hf but I always have him as scum Mderg this Rels read. Remember it.
This was when I had like 3 posts, jumping on Damdred's wagon immediately. After I really entered the game, this read was no longer true.
On January 30 2018 20:04 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On January 19 2018 21:11 mderg wrote:On January 19 2018 21:06 Holyflare wrote:On January 19 2018 20:00 rsoultin wrote:On January 19 2018 19:49 KelsierSC wrote:
Though I disagree with HF on his damdred read, I do want to see more from damdred this day.
Reading through HF's explanation. I could understand that if you were reading a guy as scummy from before. (due to his df/mcosta read) then with that biased you could see his response as panicked.
I thought about the perspective of if I was scum HF/Rels. I think my initial interpretation was wrong.I don't think scum HF and Rels jump on this case and call it good. Especially Rels , if damdred flips town he looks super shady.
I think if Damdred is town then you just soft defend him , in the way I have done tbh, and then look for some random lynch later on, if damdred is lynched then a town goes down and you look good.
I think Mderg did that and maybe df but i'm not 100%.
with btdt I liked something he did early, mentioning the bad read on hf and he read rsoultin as town so I gave him a few plus points. I didn't like his Mcosta is weird with a massive quote post , i'd need to see more though.
At this point i'd lynch between mderg, maybe df then prplhz,kmatt and btdt need to put more into the thread.
To be fair, I think scumRels would be way more likely to do that if there was an alternative lynch going, which there wasn't. It still felt like a half-assed drive-by shooting but I can't say that it makes him scum. Not feeling a mderg lynch. It's not sparkly but I get a little swimming against the current and a little waffley not sure not sure from his filter that just feels towny to me. Not my strongest read, of course, but I'd rather not lynch him. Meeeh btdt's filter is just so weak for me. Hold on. I already forgot specifics. I too get a ray of hope from mderg. Who are you and what did you do to the real holyflare? The bolded nested quote might be interesting. Something Rels did that was shady if damdred flipped. Lots of talk about it.
This is even worse: Koshi uses something completely backward, since KSC is saying he doesn't actually scumread me if Damdred flips town.
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and yeah, Kmatt's filter is still trash. Only redeeming thing is that he stepped up against town consensus to defend Damerion at some point. But apart from that, it's pretty empty of any substance.
On January 28 2018 01:09 Kmatt wrote:
I love how every time I come back here I find some variant of "kmatt disappeared out of nowhere wtf". I'm pretty sure "United States" appears next to my name. Lrn2hemisphere
Anyway as for the current gamestate.
JaT: Town. Twat was mostly a townread until I started suspecting him towards the end of D1/D2, but JaT has filled the shoes nicely. Also for noticing the BTDT roleblock thing. Only a mafia player managing a 5D chessboard would have thought to fake that so far in advance.
BTDT: Town by power of claim
Mderg: Not a ton of impact but nothing scummy. A lot of the claims he threw out, especially early seemed a little too bold for typical mafia. Not sure if that's his meta or whatever but I can townread him easily enough.
Rels: A bit of buddying, and definitely goes against the grain by believing in me, but I see it as towny tunneling on HF. If he believes HF is scum then he has to be able to excuse me. Mafia!Rels would be just as happy to have the easy lynch (Me) to be next in line if he knew HF was going to flip green.
Holyflare: still want to lynch him
mcosta: Don't have a hard read on this guy, but while looking over the filter I'll take this minute to claim that there was no ulterior motive to not voting D1. I had been in the thread earlier, hadn't made up my mind on voting, went out to do something that night an checked in on the thread realizing that I didn't actually know when the deadline was.
Also I don't know what his shtick is with the BTDT not-being-confirmed business.
This is exactly what I expect scum to do about BTDT. Totally opposite to what Mocsta did.
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if mderg is scum he has me completely pocketed. His filter is super logical
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On January 20 2018 05:59 mderg wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2018 05:47 darthfoley wrote:On January 20 2018 05:29 rsoultin wrote:On January 19 2018 11:55 Mocsta wrote:
[...]
============================
Priority #2: Other comments of interest
Holyflare
Im confused by HF - until he "couldnt fathom the mindset" of kelsier, I wasnt actually sure why damdred was voted.
On one hand, I feel that HF is constantly prodding people in a constructive manner;
On the other hand, whilst he has communicated why he voted damdred, its for reasoning I dont agree with (i.e.
focusing on behaviour rather than motive).
Am i wrong to expect more?
Darthfoley
Reads like he is observing the game and commenting for funsies.
I dont know how to explain it other than its feels like he is here, yet not actually in the moment?!?!
More investigating required.
mderg
I feel that mderg is trying to post just enough to not be forgotten.
Its interesting that the biggest attempt to persuade the thread revolves around shifting the focus from damdred to
damerion. "Using the fact that Damdred left the thread is like the weakest reason to push the read I can imagine."
Given I think the poke was fair game, i think this is hyperbole from mderg.
An interesting connection with potentially interesting timing nonetheless. How is any of this vague? If this a genuine opinion from you, I need you to explain it. Because right now it seems like you decided to keep calling him scum and hastily constructed an answer that you yourself can't support without making vague claims that I see no factual grounds for. Yes he gives a little nibble here or there of a conclusion but he leaves so much wiggle room for backing off. I don't know why this point is so hard for you to understand and why you disagree so vehemently. It looks like typical light shade throwing without much commitment. For example, "mderg used hyperbole" I think can be read either way. Town use hyperbole all the time but in different ways than mafia. I'm moving on from this because I've explained myself and if you still don't get it then I guess we just fundamentally disagree on the issue at hand. The wiggle room tuff would make me scum in 90% of my games, which makes me dislike that reasoning
You didn't seem to wiggle much this game though ?
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I was pretty busy today but I'll be solving the game now
On January 31 2018 07:38 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On January 20 2018 05:59 mderg wrote:On January 20 2018 05:47 darthfoley wrote:On January 20 2018 05:29 rsoultin wrote:On January 19 2018 11:55 Mocsta wrote:
[...]
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Priority #2: Other comments of interest
Holyflare
Im confused by HF - until he "couldnt fathom the mindset" of kelsier, I wasnt actually sure why damdred was voted.
On one hand, I feel that HF is constantly prodding people in a constructive manner;
On the other hand, whilst he has communicated why he voted damdred, its for reasoning I dont agree with (i.e.
focusing on behaviour rather than motive).
Am i wrong to expect more?
Darthfoley
Reads like he is observing the game and commenting for funsies.
I dont know how to explain it other than its feels like he is here, yet not actually in the moment?!?!
More investigating required.
mderg
I feel that mderg is trying to post just enough to not be forgotten.
Its interesting that the biggest attempt to persuade the thread revolves around shifting the focus from damdred to
damerion. "Using the fact that Damdred left the thread is like the weakest reason to push the read I can imagine."
Given I think the poke was fair game, i think this is hyperbole from mderg.
An interesting connection with potentially interesting timing nonetheless. How is any of this vague? If this a genuine opinion from you, I need you to explain it. Because right now it seems like you decided to keep calling him scum and hastily constructed an answer that you yourself can't support without making vague claims that I see no factual grounds for. Yes he gives a little nibble here or there of a conclusion but he leaves so much wiggle room for backing off. I don't know why this point is so hard for you to understand and why you disagree so vehemently. It looks like typical light shade throwing without much commitment. For example, "mderg used hyperbole" I think can be read either way. Town use hyperbole all the time but in different ways than mafia. I'm moving on from this because I've explained myself and if you still don't get it then I guess we just fundamentally disagree on the issue at hand. The wiggle room tuff would make me scum in 90% of my games, which makes me dislike that reasoning You didn't seem to wiggle much this game though ?
Probably because I want to change that a bit as similar reasons were often mentioned to scumread me in the past.
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imo that is a pretty good post by Kmatt. But then again. I know he was being honest.
mderg/Mocsta/JAT can be the judges.
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oh you are here mderg. I will reread you. Maybe I find something mafia.
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On January 18 2018 22:05 mderg wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2018 21:56 Damerion wrote:
Good morning,
I have decided with careful conaideration that Damdred is scum over DarthFoley and Mocsta. Or at least that I would much rather lynch him over both and then reevaluate at that point.
But onto my main point, Damdred is an extremely meta based player and has used exactly 0 points of meta to make his reads this game.
He also is gòing about thw game in a way that is not typical of him, he generally town hunts and only goes after his scum reads day two instead of pushing early day one when he town hunts. He also usually goes off the beaten path and looks where others do not.
And look what he is doing here, he bases his scum read of DarthFoley off one post.
Also I have a slight meta read on Damdred on his word usuage, in that he uses certain words when explaining his reads and he does not use it in any of his posts.
I think Damdred is scum and you all should join me in voting him off.
##vote Damdred
Meh, I don't like reads that are 100% based on meta
On January 18 2018 23:04 mderg wrote:
I really don't like the way Damerion is making his case on Damdred, though.
Using the fact that Damdred left the thread is like the weakest reason to push the read I can imagine.
On January 18 2018 23:35 mderg wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2018 23:29 TheTwatyEvildoer wrote:On January 18 2018 23:18 mderg wrote:On January 18 2018 23:04 TheTwatyEvildoer wrote:On January 18 2018 22:52 mderg wrote:
I'm really not sure what to make of this game... I don't have Damdred or Mocsta as scum right now.
Then what so you think of the game so far as it developed. What is your read on damdred? Mcosta rico? Generally? damdred I'm not sure about, I can see the point you made about him looking to agree with people of opposing views. On the other hand his defense doesn't seem like scum to me. The slightly illogical reasoning on the meta stuff just feels super townie to me. I also don't like the way Damerion has gone to attack Damdred. Immediately tunneling on Damdred based solely on meta. I don't know how much there actually is to the meta, though. (probably something at least). Mocsta, I feel showed the kind of openness I would expect town to have. Ok. So going off your filter. So would a list be like: Town: Me Mcosta Rico Rsoultin Mafia: Hf? Confused: Damerion I'm just now worrying about you cause after reading your filter, you seem to be unwilling to commit to anything as well and apart from me and now Mcosta Rico, you haven't taken a strong stance on anything. How do you get hf in the mafia pile from my filter? I'd much rather put Damerion in that. Like I said, I don't know what to make off this game which is somewhat annoying
wifom more likely town.
On January 19 2018 08:59 mderg wrote:Show nested quote +On January 19 2018 08:51 darthfoley wrote:On January 19 2018 07:48 mderg wrote:On January 19 2018 05:11 darthfoley wrote:
Perhaps i'll town read HF for seeing what I see. But he's good enough to do that as either alignment. I shall come back to this later.
Town: Twat/Rels What makes Rels town? He has seen what I see and shares some similar opinions about specific things that would not be on a mafia's priorities list at this juncture in the game sounds kind of vague and bullshitty to me
wifom more likely town.
On January 19 2018 18:18 mderg wrote:
Can we just lynch Rels?
imagine if it is Rels/df/Damerion.
not bad mderg. I take back that your early game was bad. Dnu what I previously read.
PS: the buddying is real.
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Well. If mderg is mafia he played well. If he is town he played even better.
Can't lynch the guy unless lylo. And even then...
Dnu who I would pick out of Mocsta and mderg.
legit hard choice.
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Yeah it is most likely not Mocsta. He is quite wrong on his Kmatt and btdt suspects but he probably believed it.
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So yeah.
I think JAT knows I am town. I also think he will vote Rels.
Mocsta will most likely vote me. He convinced himself over the course of the game and needs to see my flip.
mderg I don't know. Probably has the deciding vote.
I was nice to mderg. But Rels has been pocketing him quite well as well.
I think there is enough evidence and data in this thread.
gl hf to the players.
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On January 31 2018 07:59 Koshi wrote:
Well. If mderg is mafia he played well. If he is town he played even better.
Can't lynch the guy unless lylo. And even then...
Dnu who I would pick out of Mocsta and mderg.
legit hard choice.
Rels pocketing is much better than yours because it's way more subtle. Rereading his filter right now.
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On January 31 2018 07:10 Rels wrote:can you explain what you were trying to achieve ? Koshi replaced in, what, a couple hours before deadline?
There is no way any replacement could meaningfully read the thread and draw conclusions.
The QT should be much more manageable.
So, when I woke up to see a replacement that is insta-calling me scum, and not in an OMGUS-way: My scum read on Kmatt/Koshi was amplified further.
In my mind I was testing whether Koshi was making kill selection on thread or QT strategy.
If BTDT was legitimately RB (which clearly now is the case) for being perceived as medic; I see him as a real threat to scum as another delay to LYLO should be default town win.
If BTDT was faking the RB, I would expect scum (inc. Koshi) to clasp onto the JAT notice and shoot him.
I mean, JAT being blue was so obvious from how he destroyed Damerion *AND* refused to discuss claims with BTDT.
I didnt see it as a risk to output this as a competent scum would be shooting him anyways.
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I have thought about it more and not sure its as telling as I had hoped.
BTDT could have been shot purely for being "confirmed town" and/or unpredictable.
BTDT could have been shot to focus on this type of discussion.
Right now, I need to evaluate what Koshi has contributed this cycle - vs. the kill selection.
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On January 31 2018 08:04 Koshi wrote:
[....]
Mocsta will most likely vote me. He convinced himself over the course of the game and needs to see my flip.
[...] You make a fair point.
##Unvote
I need to take a step back and its starts with the action above.
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On January 31 2018 07:53 Koshi wrote:
imo that is a pretty good post by Kmatt. But then again. I know he was being honest.
mderg/Mocsta/JAT can be the judges. well one of the issues I had with that post you are referring to is the insertion of "5d chessboard"
To me, thats a very forced joke, as a continuation of "4d chessboard" from very early Day1 - that people found humerous.
To me it demonstrated a mindset that was trying to make that point more convincing by associating it with a past memory (in kmatt favour). Thats a weak scum tell to me.
=======
This is the challenge for me this cycle:
I have issues with Kmatt play - that Koshi simply cannot address.
Even if scum, and with QT knowledge; it doesnt explain every action Kmatt took - as people have different styles etc.
So i have to evaluate Koshi on how he is reading Rels/mderg/mocsta;
and Rels on the whole game.
Its really hard for me not to be biased against Koshi, simply because I have unanswered questions about Kmatt.
The other problem I have with Koshi is that, whilst I appreciate he appears to have speed-read the game. His analysis is extremely superficial as its a stream of consciousness approach, with a one-line summary for analytical conclusion.
I also agree that Koshi is being double-standard by accusing Rels of pocketing mderg; and arguably, is doing the same thing with me and others. Clearly at least one is town, so its really a non-alignment indicative tell....
I also really dont know how to get meaningful questions from Koshi, as a lot of the late-game stuff to me is ... ?useless?.. i.e. predetermined lynches and even RSoultin said prplhz was legitimate for town and scum.
I keep thinking this game comes back to interactions with DF and Damerion - Im going to have a focused peruse for Rels at this stage.
Actually, Koshi, I would like your thoughts on a dedicated dive into DF and Damerion please - with emphasis on Rels and mderg (and sure, myself)
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EPT
