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The future mislynch setup doesn't make sense since Rels is already ml #1 if town. I guess it makes sense from the Skynx part if Skynx is town.
I am really interested in hearing why Rels thinks Skynx is town.
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On June 29 2017 02:10 ruXxar wrote:
My only sensible reasoning would be that both wagons are town, and that he doesn't care who gets lynched.
Possibly this. I still don't get why doesn't he just sit on Palmar if that's the case. Well i am waiting for Rels' answers.
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If you thought Palmar was playing well why did you vote for him in the first place?
What does the "too easy" mean? That was literally the closest lynch possible.
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On June 29 2017 02:26 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2017 02:21 raynpelikoneet wrote:
If you thought Palmar was playing well why did you vote for him in the first place?
What does the "too easy" mean? That was literally the closest lynch possible. I ALSO thought he didn't start playing until the start of day. Didn't you read anything I've written in the last 3 days? lol "That was literally the closest lynch possible" WHY DO YOU THINK THIS WAS THE CASE??? It was only close because I made it close, Rayn. It was 7-3 or 7-4 before I started my shenannies.
See the first thing is the point. You thought he played well the last day, yet you sat on him until almost the EoD.
You are right on the second point, what i said wasn't even meant to be true. 
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Blazinghand, what you're saying right now is that:
- You had doubts on Palmar because his last day phase was good
- You thought Rels is mafia
Yet you sat on Palmar almost all day just to fuck up with everything in the last couple of minutes. How does that make any sense?
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BH when exactly did you start having doubts about Palmar's alignment? Can you point out to a specific time, post or something?
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On June 29 2017 02:36 ruXxar wrote:
Which means he basically had the shenannies planned beforehand.
Thats fucking scummy if you ask me.
That's not scummy in itself tbh.
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Okay thanks. I will get back to this later. Gotta eat and leave for work soon.
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On June 29 2017 02:50 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2017 02:48 Blazinghand wrote:http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/523282-tl-mafia-lxxv?page=270#5397On June 26 2017 17:04 Blazinghand wrote:
living players:
Palmar
Rels
Disfo
VA
BTDT
Rayn
Blaze
FF
Skynx
RuXxar
ES
Living claimers (do not lynch):
VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3
ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4
Likely town:
Disfo
RuXXar
Fecal
... much lower, Skynx
Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them):
Palmar
BTDT
Rels
Rayn
--
So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat:
Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF.
Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green.
The people who were on the Annul wagon:
annul (7): sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince
Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote):
Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez
So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons.
I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.
So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.
I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.
With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation.
2-mafia situation:
Today, 9-2.
If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2
If we ML again, next day is 5-2
If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO
3-mafia situation:
today, 8-3
If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3
If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO
The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here.
^--- this post is most of my plans D1 and my ideas about the gamestat Bro, that post doesnt say shit about why you vote Palmar over Rels.
Dude right now you're basically arguing BH made sense at the EoD and you think he is scum for it...
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On June 29 2017 02:59 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2017 02:55 raynpelikoneet wrote:On June 29 2017 02:50 ruXxar wrote:On June 29 2017 02:48 Blazinghand wrote:http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/523282-tl-mafia-lxxv?page=270#5397On June 26 2017 17:04 Blazinghand wrote:
living players:
Palmar
Rels
Disfo
VA
BTDT
Rayn
Blaze
FF
Skynx
RuXxar
ES
Living claimers (do not lynch):
VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3
ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4
Likely town:
Disfo
RuXXar
Fecal
... much lower, Skynx
Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them):
Palmar
BTDT
Rels
Rayn
--
So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat:
Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF.
Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green.
The people who were on the Annul wagon:
annul (7): sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince
Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote):
Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez
So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons.
I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.
So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.
I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.
With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation.
2-mafia situation:
Today, 9-2.
If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2
If we ML again, next day is 5-2
If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO
3-mafia situation:
today, 8-3
If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3
If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO
The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here.
^--- this post is most of my plans D1 and my ideas about the gamestat Bro, that post doesnt say shit about why you vote Palmar over Rels. Dude right now you're basically arguing BH made sense at the EoD and you think he is scum for it... Doesnt matter what peoples alignments are. What matters is what reason he has for dropping his convincing scum read on Rels and voting palmar. If he is town he should have a good reason for doing so. I can't remember him stating that anywhere.
A couple of things:
1) It matters what alignments are. Scum are more likely wanting to keep their story straight. Bussing people when they are not gonna get lynched is what you want to do as mafia. If Rels is mafia with BH then your argument makes sense but then BH switching to Rels and making the vote super close doesn't make sense because again, he can just sit on Palmar.
2) I am not sure if you are right in how convincing his scumread was on either of the people, and that's the thing that matters regarding this argument.
I don't have time to check that rn.
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too tired to play rn, have to sleep.
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On June 29 2017 22:45 beentheredonethat wrote:
If only I had let this pass. People would be all over Rels and the game would actually have a bit of sanity and decency to it
but that witch hunter after btdt is just so amazingly bad
there IS NO REASON TO SCUMREAD ME, DISFORMATION, AND YOU SAID IT SOME TIMES ALREADY, SAME AS RUXXAR, SAME AS FUCKING SKYNX
YET SOMEHOW, A PLAY THAT I DID, CONCIOUSLY, TO FIND SCUM, MAKES ME SCUM? HOW CAN YOU ALL COME TO THAT CONCLUSION? HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE?
Because you try to find scum by lynching people who you think are town, and even then it doesn't further your case.
Let's live in a world where you are right and Skynx is mafia and Rels is not. After what you did Skynx actually switches to Rels and says "yeah i couldn't vote with my top scumread btdt" or whatever you baited him into doing. Then Rels flips town.
Then what? Your scumread Palmar still remains unknown. Is that better?
You can't even blame Skynx for the lynch because you gave him a perfectly logical reason to lynch Rels.
So what are you gonna do then and how does this further you figuring out the game?
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Rels can you answer me on your read on Skynx when you get a chance?
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disformation, i have like 45 mins. Wanna talk about something?
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On June 30 2017 02:40 disformation wrote:ah found it. before the btdt stuff happened you posted: Show nested quote +On June 29 2017 01:09 raynpelikoneet wrote:On June 28 2017 18:44 Rels wrote:
I'll make posts explaining my thoughts when I have the time IE tonight. The TLDR on Skynx is his continuous investigative tone + how he thinks about the game, trying to find teams that makes sense + attacking disfo when it makes no sense to do that.
I have opinion on BTDT. My opinion is that I'm conflicted. More on that tonight Attacking disfo when? On June 28 2017 20:29 disformation wrote:
es, va, rayn what do you guys think abput btdt's eod yesterday?
What about it? I have two reads from yesterday, i am gonna go more into that a bit later. what were/are you two reads from that eod?
I thought Blazinghand is mafia and Rels is mafia. At the time i didn't really see any reason for btdt to do what he did as mafia so i couldn't understand why Rels called his read on btdt "conflicted". He definitely had read the EoD because he was around and even posted analysis on it.
Then i realized i am probably wrong on something since i don't really think those three can be mafia together. I am currently trying to figure out where i am wrong. So i would like Rels to answer me what are those posts he talks about regarding Skynx and why does his read change. I'd rather not talk about Rels yet until he has answered me.
Now let's assume i am right and those three are not the remaining mafia:
That means there has to be at least 1 mafia in Skynx/FF/Ruxxar. All of those three are not being talked about at all. There are no really good reasons to townread FF and honestly i have forgotten about him after i thought sl had claimed to have the same check on him and Chezitwo. I still think Ruxxar is town but i havent really paid attention to his play after i concluded he is town early on (and also my top scumread Rels was calling him mafia so that would unlikely be a bus). Have you read Ruxxar lately? I don't even rememeber why Rels called him mafia but i thought the reasons were bad -- and he also had "yet to read Ruxxar's filter".... Do you think Skynx can be scum with btdt? Can this a yolo bus or just plain out "i try to lynch this townie"? I mean btdt is kinda right in that Skynx' EoD in fact DOES look bad? But i am conflicted on the fact why he would basically sacrifice himself to get Skynx town credit. Skynx doesn't really make sense to me as either alignment roff. I could use some help there.
I am gonna talk more about Blazinghand when i get off work in the morning, i need to check if what he says makes sense in contrast to his posting and reads before the lynch throughout the day. Rels is right in that what Blazinghand did is not really alignment indicative in itself since he DOES do that as both alignments. He is also right in that in case he (Rels) is town then Blazinghand's actions make more sense to do as mafia, but the problem is he would also say that as mafia, obviously. 
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Or if you disagree with Rels/BH/btdt scumteam being nearly impossible please let me know because i would love nothing more than lynching scum Rels. 
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Like regarding Rels i don't see it being impossible he actually realized (after the lynch) that btdt fucked up, hoped people won't see it, called him "conflicted" and is covering the rest of the game by calling Skynx town.
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On June 30 2017 03:09 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2017 02:43 disformation wrote:but i agree that rels should go back and talk more about: On June 28 2017 18:20 Rels wrote:
Skynx is not scum.
disfo is not scum.
rayn is not scum.
FF is probably not scum.
BH is scum.
This is where I'm restarting from. On June 28 2017 18:44 Rels wrote:
I'll make posts explaining my thoughts when I have the time IE tonight. The TLDR on Skynx is his continuous investigative tone + how he thinks about the game, trying to find teams that makes sense + attacking disfo when it makes no sense to do that.
I have opinion on BTDT. My opinion is that I'm conflicted. More on that tonight yeah I wanted to make a case on BH + reread filters yesterday night. But my GF had other plans p:
The case on balzinghand is irrelevant today.
Tell me what i asked you about your Skynx read.
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EPT
