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Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 21 2017 16:58 GMT
#1901
Well, AMG is probably least likely out of rayn/Onegu/AMG anyway. I'd put it as rayn > Onegu > AMG atm.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
March 21 2017 16:58 GMT
#1902
On March 22 2017 01:57 Xatalos wrote:
Even Tumble and disfo have made me think they could be town lately.

Why Tumble town?
table for two on a tv tray
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8003 Posts
March 21 2017 16:59 GMT
#1903
On March 22 2017 00:32 Damdred wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 22 2017 00:29 Koshi wrote:
On March 22 2017 00:22 Damdred wrote:
On March 22 2017 00:21 Koshi wrote:
On March 22 2017 00:16 Damdred wrote:
Now adam opinion time, I know you added onto DF post about the Ritoky probabilities of why he was killed. Did anything in that post bother you exactly?

Yes. But I let the other guy reply.


You can answer to koshi, i kinda want to see if we are bothered by the same thing.

His most probably solutions is mafia mindset orientated. His less probably solution is occams razor.


Yes, I do like this thought to.

I also like the thought that he put a lot of work coming with solutions that he takes no real stance on himself. All of that writing and he comes up with 0 conclusions on his own.

Its a bit bothering me on both points, and super interesting the easiest one is the lesst likely to him.



Sorry but this is ass cheeks. I do take a stance on what I think is more likely and less likely. I DO explain WHY I find the scenarios likely or unlikely. So I do make "conclusions" about the scenarios. Why is it super interesting the I find the "easiest" one the least likely? Please, elaborate and show me your conclusions about why ritoky died!

Fair point to Koshi I guess but your addendum is absolute garbage
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 21 2017 17:00 GMT
#1904
On March 22 2017 01:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 22 2017 01:57 Xatalos wrote:
Even Tumble and disfo have made me think they could be town lately.

Why Tumble town?


There was a more detailed explanation somewhere in my filter, but in summary, he's been doing his own thing consistently without seeming to care about how he looks. Also his confusions seemed surprisingly genuine on reread.

(That and he wouldn't make much sense as scum if you were town since the way he acted EOD D1)
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 21 2017 17:02 GMT
#1905
So I wouldn't lynch Tumble before rayn ever as things stand
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
March 21 2017 17:03 GMT
#1906
On March 22 2017 02:00 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 22 2017 01:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On March 22 2017 01:57 Xatalos wrote:
Even Tumble and disfo have made me think they could be town lately.

Why Tumble town?


There was a more detailed explanation somewhere in my filter, but in summary, he's been doing his own thing consistently without seeming to care about how he looks. Also his confusions seemed surprisingly genuine on reread.

(That and he wouldn't make much sense as scum if you were town since the way he acted EOD D1)

I have said this all D1 and you considered us both mafia all D1 and now you are telling me (on D2) that i am pathetic because i ahve been all game wrong when your scumreads were rayn/Tumble/Malongo and you even voted for the non-scum of that list ( as you yourself said). Makes sense?
table for two on a tv tray
Damdred
Profile Joined July 2014
15669 Posts
March 21 2017 17:03 GMT
#1907
On March 22 2017 01:59 darthfoley wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 22 2017 00:32 Damdred wrote:
On March 22 2017 00:29 Koshi wrote:
On March 22 2017 00:22 Damdred wrote:
On March 22 2017 00:21 Koshi wrote:
On March 22 2017 00:16 Damdred wrote:
Now adam opinion time, I know you added onto DF post about the Ritoky probabilities of why he was killed. Did anything in that post bother you exactly?

Yes. But I let the other guy reply.


You can answer to koshi, i kinda want to see if we are bothered by the same thing.

His most probably solutions is mafia mindset orientated. His less probably solution is occams razor.


Yes, I do like this thought to.

I also like the thought that he put a lot of work coming with solutions that he takes no real stance on himself. All of that writing and he comes up with 0 conclusions on his own.

Its a bit bothering me on both points, and super interesting the easiest one is the lesst likely to him.



Sorry but this is ass cheeks. I do take a stance on what I think is more likely and less likely. I DO explain WHY I find the scenarios likely or unlikely. So I do make "conclusions" about the scenarios. Why is it super interesting the I find the "easiest" one the least likely? Please, elaborate and show me your conclusions about why ritoky died!

Fair point to Koshi I guess but your addendum is absolute garbage


You list all of these possible scenerios and list how possible they are but not all of them can exist at the same time, some can exist at the same time but a lot of them go against one another. So yeah you really don't take your own stand just list what you think is possible and leave it at that.

You do not actually say which one you believe. The easiest solution is that Ritoky was just right tbh.
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
March 21 2017 17:04 GMT
#1908
I concur, until the very last 15 minutes of the day 1 when you decided it's fun to try lynch rayn.
table for two on a tv tray
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8003 Posts
March 21 2017 17:04 GMT
#1909
Btw I still think Eden is the lynch today. I voted for disformation for CW and discussion purposes but i'm more comfortable with Eden dying than Xatalos, especially because I don't think there's been a slam dunk case for Eden's townieness yet now the winds seem to be shifting off of him even though he's done absolutely nothing.

Yea there may be question marks about Xata or whatever, but if Eden is scum and his scum mates get the obvious lynch off of him without him having posted, I will eat my own ass in frustration after this game.

watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8003 Posts
March 21 2017 17:05 GMT
#1910
so ##unvote

##vote Eden
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 21 2017 17:06 GMT
#1911
On March 22 2017 02:03 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 22 2017 02:00 Xatalos wrote:
On March 22 2017 01:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On March 22 2017 01:57 Xatalos wrote:
Even Tumble and disfo have made me think they could be town lately.

Why Tumble town?


There was a more detailed explanation somewhere in my filter, but in summary, he's been doing his own thing consistently without seeming to care about how he looks. Also his confusions seemed surprisingly genuine on reread.

(That and he wouldn't make much sense as scum if you were town since the way he acted EOD D1)

I have said this all D1 and you considered us both mafia all D1 and now you are telling me (on D2) that i am pathetic because i ahve been all game wrong when your scumreads were rayn/Tumble/Malongo and you even voted for the non-scum of that list ( as you yourself said). Makes sense?


Not sure if I followed your thought process there. Anyways it's not sure if I was completely wrong D1 yet, and it's not that bad to make mistakes on D1. At this point I'm time I'm certainly closer to the truth than you are.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
March 21 2017 17:06 GMT
#1912
For the record i am gonna go play poker in about an hour or 2 and then i will be back before the deadline but not necessarily on computer. I am almost certain Xatalos is mafia. Sheep me or not but i am almost certain.
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
March 21 2017 17:06 GMT
#1913
On March 22 2017 02:06 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 22 2017 02:03 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On March 22 2017 02:00 Xatalos wrote:
On March 22 2017 01:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On March 22 2017 01:57 Xatalos wrote:
Even Tumble and disfo have made me think they could be town lately.

Why Tumble town?


There was a more detailed explanation somewhere in my filter, but in summary, he's been doing his own thing consistently without seeming to care about how he looks. Also his confusions seemed surprisingly genuine on reread.

(That and he wouldn't make much sense as scum if you were town since the way he acted EOD D1)

I have said this all D1 and you considered us both mafia all D1 and now you are telling me (on D2) that i am pathetic because i ahve been all game wrong when your scumreads were rayn/Tumble/Malongo and you even voted for the non-scum of that list ( as you yourself said). Makes sense?


Not sure if I followed your thought process there. Anyways it's not sure if I was completely wrong D1 yet, and it's not that bad to make mistakes on D1. At this point I'm time I'm certainly closer to the truth than you are.

How is that so? You know Damdred's alignment?
table for two on a tv tray
Damdred
Profile Joined July 2014
15669 Posts
March 21 2017 17:08 GMT
#1914
Answer me this question DF

3. Scum is in a much better situation than the town thinks currently, and wants to provide the town with as little information as possible. Which is exactly what happened

You do say that this is exactly what happened. This implies that Eden is not scum as Ritoky gives us lots of information if Eden is scum.

So why do you think that Eden is scum now and voting for him?
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8003 Posts
March 21 2017 17:08 GMT
#1915
On March 22 2017 01:06 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 22 2017 01:05 Koshi wrote:
On March 22 2017 01:02 Xatalos wrote:
On March 22 2017 00:58 Koshi wrote:
On March 22 2017 00:56 Xatalos wrote:
On March 22 2017 00:52 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Both vote for me instead of Eden. I need a couple of hours to figure this shit out.

Why in the name of all that is holy would you risk your own life as JK? Or claim in the first place, if I might ask? I would never do either of those actions as a blue, and you're very willing to abandon your role usage for some thread clout.

Why would he do it as mafia?

Why ask this question?
And why are you ignoring my 3 posts I made on you?


Sorry, I was keeping up with the thread on my phone in short bursts earlier. Didn't read your posts in detail. I'll get to them eventually. Could you maybe summarize your case? Because like a couple of pages ago I was your top town, now top scum. The change is really radical.

As scum his actions would make a lot of sense. Gain some credibility by fakeclaiming (especially in a vanilla setup), direct the lynch away from himself/Eden, maybe get 1-2 mislynches before getting caught. If it's not a vanilla setup, he could alternatively catch the blues before going down.

As town..... just why would he abandon his crucial role with ease and even want people to vote for him vs me? As scum he would certainly want that, since it'd be easier to win him vs me than Eden vs me.

I already explained to you that there is no way rayn fucking fakeclaims to save his partner Eden. This is not fucking lylo and he can ALWAYS be counter to be CONFIRMED mafia.

Why would he be THIS FUCKING DESPERATE AS MAFIA?


Well in the vanilla setup it would make perfect sense. The situation was pretty desperate with scum vs scum wagons (assuming they're both scum).


This is why I am uncomfortable lynching Xata for the time being. He seems to be the only one seriously considering THIS specifical scenario in which rayn can't be CC'd. Is it likely? Not really, but the fact that he's arguing it is townie IMO. Like why throw this much shade towards a blue, if you're scum!Xata?????? What is the end goal
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 21 2017 17:08 GMT
#1916
On March 22 2017 02:04 darthfoley wrote:
Btw I still think Eden is the lynch today. I voted for disformation for CW and discussion purposes but i'm more comfortable with Eden dying than Xatalos, especially because I don't think there's been a slam dunk case for Eden's townieness yet now the winds seem to be shifting off of him even though he's done absolutely nothing.

Yea there may be question marks about Xata or whatever, but if Eden is scum and his scum mates get the obvious lynch off of him without him having posted, I will eat my own ass in frustration after this game.



No need to consolidate yet though. It'll certainly be more interesting if it's even or even slightly against me towards the end.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
March 21 2017 17:10 GMT
#1917
On March 22 2017 02:08 darthfoley wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 22 2017 01:06 Xatalos wrote:
On March 22 2017 01:05 Koshi wrote:
On March 22 2017 01:02 Xatalos wrote:
On March 22 2017 00:58 Koshi wrote:
On March 22 2017 00:56 Xatalos wrote:
On March 22 2017 00:52 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Both vote for me instead of Eden. I need a couple of hours to figure this shit out.

Why in the name of all that is holy would you risk your own life as JK? Or claim in the first place, if I might ask? I would never do either of those actions as a blue, and you're very willing to abandon your role usage for some thread clout.

Why would he do it as mafia?

Why ask this question?
And why are you ignoring my 3 posts I made on you?


Sorry, I was keeping up with the thread on my phone in short bursts earlier. Didn't read your posts in detail. I'll get to them eventually. Could you maybe summarize your case? Because like a couple of pages ago I was your top town, now top scum. The change is really radical.

As scum his actions would make a lot of sense. Gain some credibility by fakeclaiming (especially in a vanilla setup), direct the lynch away from himself/Eden, maybe get 1-2 mislynches before getting caught. If it's not a vanilla setup, he could alternatively catch the blues before going down.

As town..... just why would he abandon his crucial role with ease and even want people to vote for him vs me? As scum he would certainly want that, since it'd be easier to win him vs me than Eden vs me.

I already explained to you that there is no way rayn fucking fakeclaims to save his partner Eden. This is not fucking lylo and he can ALWAYS be counter to be CONFIRMED mafia.

Why would he be THIS FUCKING DESPERATE AS MAFIA?


Well in the vanilla setup it would make perfect sense. The situation was pretty desperate with scum vs scum wagons (assuming they're both scum).


This is why I am uncomfortable lynching Xata for the time being. He seems to be the only one seriously considering THIS specifical scenario in which rayn can't be CC'd. Is it likely? Not really, but the fact that he's arguing it is townie IMO. Like why throw this much shade towards a blue, if you're scum!Xata?????? What is the end goal

I am not getting lynched today 100%. If he is mafia he is gonna draw out the other PR and "cannot be blamed about it because he was right in that if it's all vanilla setup rayn can be mafia".
table for two on a tv tray
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43268 Posts
March 21 2017 17:11 GMT
#1918
yes i can be mafia if it is an all vanilla setup but i never shoot ritoky because i am a retard if i do that.
so stop df, don't draw out the other pr if you're town.
table for two on a tv tray
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 21 2017 17:11 GMT
#1919
On March 22 2017 02:06 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 22 2017 02:06 Xatalos wrote:
On March 22 2017 02:03 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On March 22 2017 02:00 Xatalos wrote:
On March 22 2017 01:58 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On March 22 2017 01:57 Xatalos wrote:
Even Tumble and disfo have made me think they could be town lately.

Why Tumble town?


There was a more detailed explanation somewhere in my filter, but in summary, he's been doing his own thing consistently without seeming to care about how he looks. Also his confusions seemed surprisingly genuine on reread.

(That and he wouldn't make much sense as scum if you were town since the way he acted EOD D1)

I have said this all D1 and you considered us both mafia all D1 and now you are telling me (on D2) that i am pathetic because i ahve been all game wrong when your scumreads were rayn/Tumble/Malongo and you even voted for the non-scum of that list ( as you yourself said). Makes sense?


Not sure if I followed your thought process there. Anyways it's not sure if I was completely wrong D1 yet, and it's not that bad to make mistakes on D1. At this point I'm time I'm certainly closer to the truth than you are.

How is that so? You know Damdred's alignment?


Well, by some simple logic. If we make the assumption that we're both town and competing on "rightness"....

You were sure Malongo was scum. I was unsure. He wasn't.

You're sure I'm scum. I'm not.

I'm not sure you're scum. You're ??? (if not, then at least I'm closer to the truth again).

Damdred is probably town. I'm probably right.

Etc. etc.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8003 Posts
March 21 2017 17:11 GMT
#1920
Yea I have conflicting feelings about Xata right now. Still think Eden is always the lynch here
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
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