Sorry but I think something like AMG+disfo makes the most sense right now, purely through POE.......

(I guess it's not 100% impossible there's scum hiding within Damdred/Koshi, just not that likely.)

Xatalos

Finland9673 Posts

March 25 2017 11:30 GMT

#2702

Mainly because I just don't see Damdred/Koshi allowing the night actions so far.... and they've seemed decent enough otherwise.

Xatalos

Finland9673 Posts

March 25 2017 11:33 GMT

#2703

And Tumble has felt pretty good tonight.

Xatalos

Finland9673 Posts

March 25 2017 11:38 GMT

#2704

+ Show Spoiler +

Tumbleweed, the hero we deserve - not always in the clearest state of mind, but occasionally coming through with the revelations we needed

disformation

Germany8352 Posts

March 25 2017 11:42 GMT

#2705

assuming its not the all vt thing.

Damdred (3) - raynpelikoneet, ~~Koshi~~, DeepBlueSea89, Eden1892
disformation (0) - ~~Calix~~, ~~Xatalos~~, ~~Koshi~~
Raynpelikoneet (2) - Malongo, Tumblewood, ~~Xatalos~~
Calix (0) - ~~disformation~~, ~~Eden1892~~
Onegu (0) - ~~Koshi~~, ~~Tumblewood~~
darthfoley (0) - ~~disformation~~, ~~Tumbleweed~~
Malongo (6) - darthfoley, Koshi, disformation, Calix, Damdred, Xatalos
Tumblewood (0) - ~~Xatalos~~
Koshi (0) - ~~Onegu~~
DeepBlueSea (1) - Onegu
Rels (1) - Rels

raynpelikoneet (0) ~~xatalos~~, ~~calix~~, ~~koshi~~
eden1892 (6): damdred, disformation, ~~raynpelikoneet~~ ,~~koshi~~, onegu, xatalos, darthfoley, Calix, ~~raynpelikoneet~~
disformation (1): ~~Calix~~, ~~darthfoley~~, ~~xatalos~~, Tumblewood
AMG (0): ~~Tumblewood~~
Koshi (0): ~~Tumblewood~~
Xatalos (3): ~~raynpelikoneet~~, AMG, Koshi, raynpelikoneet

Not voting (1): Eden1892

day 1:
a) 2 on malongo: Koshi, damdy, xata
b) 1 on malongo, 1 on x. 1 of Koshi, damdy, xata and 1 of tw, rels
c) team afk: tw + rels

damdy slightly less likely due to eden on him.
if all wagons are town, more likely for scum to spread out.
would point to 1 of koshi, xata + 1 of tw and rels/amg

day 2:
a) 2 on eden: straightup xata + damdy
b) 1 eden, 1 xata: 1 of xata, damdy + 1 of koshi, amg
c) something something tumble: tumble +1 of koshi, amg, damdred, xata

damdred pulled a super sick bus if he is scum.
xata, tw would actually make some sense? like their plan was to try and get rayn lynched over eden. when rayn claimed they had no real backup and tw didnt want to risk getting xata killed, cause xata is gf/rb? would also make sense with tw being like "check me!".

disformation

Germany8352 Posts

March 25 2017 11:43 GMT

#2706

not as conclusive as i hoped though.
remind me to bitch at ppl 24/7 to form two proper wagons.

disformation

Germany8352 Posts

March 25 2017 11:44 GMT

#2707

next phase here and next games i play in general

Xatalos

Finland9673 Posts

March 25 2017 11:47 GMT

#2708

Damdred is actually quite a bit less likely scum because of vote history, yeah. He'd have to have been double bussing with Eden pretty hard, even risking Damdred's life D1 since rayn was pushing Damdred... and the highly spread out vote is more indicative of all town wagons (at least the biggest ones, Damdred/Malongo)

Xatalos

Finland9673 Posts

March 25 2017 11:48 GMT

#2709

On March 25 2017 20:43 disformation wrote:
not as conclusive as i hoped though.
remind me to bitch at ppl 24/7 to form two proper wagons.

That's what I've been saying

Xatalos

Finland9673 Posts

March 25 2017 11:51 GMT

#2710

So yeah, I really doubt Damdred could be scum. He'd have approved extremely risky distancing / double bus play with Eden and also approved very risky and outright bad night actions. I don't think scum Damdred would have done either.

Xatalos

Finland9673 Posts

March 25 2017 11:53 GMT

#2711

So yeah I'll put into my never lynch list

Damdred
DF
Rayn

(Rayn/DF assuming their claims are real)

Most likely never lynch

Kosher
Tumble

Lynch away?

AMG
disfo

Xatalos

Finland9673 Posts

March 25 2017 11:54 GMT

#2712

AMG and disfo don't feel very good either though, but better than the alternatives...

Xatalos

Finland9673 Posts

March 25 2017 11:55 GMT

#2713

Did Tumble say "check me?"

disformation

Germany8352 Posts

March 25 2017 11:57 GMT

#2714

On March 25 2017 20:55 Xatalos wrote:
Did Tumble say "check me?"

On March 25 2017 06:52 Tumblewood wrote:
it would be real nice if onegu flipped scum, because then someone would get to clear me for certain (pssst)

On March 25 2017 07:10 Tumblewood wrote:
fuck I needed that

Xatalos

Finland9673 Posts

March 25 2017 12:01 GMT

#2715

I think he was referring to the theory of GF Onegu though? By saying "if he's scum". Doesn't really make any sense with GF Tumble

Koshi

Belgium38797 Posts

March 25 2017 12:01 GMT

#2716

I have no minute to spare today. This game is pretty disgusting. First time in I think 8 months or so I have no clue. AMG is mafia, kuddos to the other person outplaying me.

But I really have no minute to spare atm. Not a second.

Xatalos

Finland9673 Posts

March 25 2017 12:04 GMT

#2717

Yeah it's a pretty weird game. Kind of feels like that annoying game with four 3P recruiting opponents. It was impossible to make any sense of that :D

disformation

Germany8352 Posts

March 25 2017 12:05 GMT

#2718

On March 25 2017 21:01 Xatalos wrote:
I think he was referring to the theory of GF Onegu though? By saying "if he's scum". Doesn't really make any sense with GF Tumble

ah makes sense. yeah, way less bad in that context.

Xatalos

Finland9673 Posts

March 25 2017 12:21 GMT

#2719

Seriously though, I don't even see AMG+disfo team making these night actions (ESPECIALLY not roleblocking rayn). The only thing that makes sense action-wise is rayn+DF WIFOMinf the hell out of us. Still, I just can't see how they expect to win that way..

Xatalos

Finland9673 Posts

March 25 2017 12:30 GMT

#2720

It just feels impossible that ANY scumteam out of us alive would leave rayn unkilled & unblocked. I would both kill and block him every time. Otherwise if he targeted the KP carrier, it would be all over. Extreme risk for basically no benefit not to do it.

That just leaves me with DF+rayn, but eh.... He'd have basically revealed the whole scumteam for little reason.