EPTNewbie Student Mafia XXIII - Page 4
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Jealous
10087 Posts
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Jealous
10087 Posts
On September 26 2016 17:56 Xatalos wrote: Hmm. Looking back on this, it does seem pretty odd. I mean... The scumread(?) on me is apparently based on the fact that I entertained the thought of having two wagons rather than just all votes on Lunatic for more useful vote analysis (no matter Lunatic's alignment, this vote distribution wouldn't tell much regarding the voters' alignments at that rate). However... Jealous feels like he already knows Lunatic's alignment here and prepares for future pushes a bit prematurely... I mean... The whole premise is that any vote off of Lunatic = scummy, despite the fact that Lunatic's alignment was unknown, it wouldn't be scummy even if Lunatic was scum (provided that he would still have the majority of votes) and I wasn't even prepared to vote Scott personally as the second wagon like had been suggested... It's just an odd accusation that feels somehow like Jealous knew what Lunatic would flip beforehand and prepared based on that knowledge. Hm. 1. You summarized my point just now, again. You contradicted yourself within one sentence by sayong that you're pushing for a second train even though you know it wouldn't accomplish anything. It makes no sense. I don't see why we're revisiting this from a logical standpoint. I still think it was a dumb idea regardless of outcome. 2. Assuming I have prior knowledge of Lunatic's alignment is a stretch at best. He was my #1 scum read and I was one of the first people who voted for him, even before Calix according to ptmc's summary (I know, technically I didn't vote for him in the thread, I had forgotten that I had to). I guess being confident in your scum read and not wanting people to take votes off of him = suspect behavior in your book? Please. 3. I explained that stupidity isn't AI but such a move could be at the hands of a stupid scum. I don't see how you could disagree with this, given that you yourself admit the plan was pointless... but then again, given that you've said something stupid once means that it could happen again. | ||
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Jealous
10087 Posts
On September 27 2016 00:38 Rels wrote: Well Jealous what would you expect scum!scott to do in this scenario then ? Forfeit was the other option to B that I was thinking about. What you're saying is of course true - dying D3 is better than dying D2, and as I said there is a chance he has a well-liked ally who Scott is putting his faith in. I was going to say that I find B/C to be the most likely variants but I wanted objective opinions from others on it before presenting my own. | ||
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Jealous
10087 Posts
On September 27 2016 00:47 Rels wrote: So if scott is scum he would likely forfeit right now rather than pushing DYH ? No. That's exactly why at the end I said "I'm not sure the kind of player Scott is, if he would have thay kind of gumption." It was just a nagging thought in the back of my mind. Let's say there is a n% chance that a scum would push for a ML and a m% chance he would forfeit. This detracts from my confidence in this being the scenario. | ||
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Jealous
10087 Posts
On September 27 2016 01:21 Xatalos wrote: 1) I guess you're just fundamentally misunderstanding or misrepresenting my point. When did I even push a second wagon? I only said that it wouldn't necessarily be a bad idea, as Superbia was already going for it anyway, even if I disagreed with the target (Scott). I didn't even consider switching my own vote or pushing for another target, as Lunatic was my first pick. But it definitely wouldn't have been a bad thing if another wagon gained a bit of steam on its own weight, since on the chance that Lunatic (or the new wagon) was scum, it could possibly reveal the whole scumteam while at it (as had happened in one game I played over at Vendetta Strada and the scumteam went into a full panic mode when there was a town vs scum lynch). 2) Another interpretation would be that you had the knowledge of him being scum and went a bit overboard by basing your other reads on him already flipping scum. I never said that wanting to lynch him was bad, but the way you went about making your other reads as if he had already flipped scum did look bad. 3) I guess anything is possible. But is it likely? Even if I had pushed a secondary wagon (I didn't), it would have only been slightly scummy at best since Lunatic was pretty much dead at that point no matter what (7+ votes on Lunatic and most people AFK), so what would it achieve from scum perspective... You might ask, then what would it achieve from town perspective? As I explained, it's always better to have a bit of action closer to the end rather than a passive single wagon. Under pressure, scum make mistakes, whereas definitely not in this kind of situation. It's stupid to assume that the scumteam would be a perfect machine that would never make mistakes. It's not a low chance that some scum would make a stupid vote to try saving Lunatic or something. Aha. I see where the key issue is. It was Superbia's idea not yours (apologies from 24 hr ago apply now). I'm willing to drop this then, if you are. It was never that big of a read for me in the first place, just struck me as particularly stupid and out of place time-wise, in which I believe we can agree on the latter. | ||
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Jealous
10087 Posts
On September 27 2016 02:43 Xatalos wrote: Though I wonder how you made it such a big deal without even reading the situation  I was in New York (not home or at a computer) catching up on the thread on my phone. I haven't been at a laptop since Saturday morning. I read the discussion quickly but failed to note exactly who started it. So, I directed it at you when I was making the summary post, but added (if this wasn't Xan then I apologize). | ||
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Jealous
10087 Posts
On September 27 2016 02:36 scott31337 wrote: It's certain to me that I'm town, yo I also think PT's and Dandel's posts were pretty good as well. I swear every time I lynch mafia in a game (I think only once when I got Wile. E with that RB track) every one thinks I bussed. It's so annoying The question is, how often have you bussed and then claimed town?  But in all seriousness, you can't exactly fault people for their read on you given that scum is almost definitely on the Lunatic vote. | ||
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Jealous
10087 Posts
@Skynx: Are you really just going to play "he said, she said" and use it to justify a town read on Scott based on a meta read someone from outside the game had that states that he doesn't bus scum teammates? | ||
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Jealous
10087 Posts
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Jealous
10087 Posts
On September 28 2016 01:06 Tictock wrote: I'm trying to avoid quoting and posting while catching up, but... Jealous can you restate this for me, or give me an updated version of what you were trying to say here? Kus I can't figure out what you are trying to say here. Ignore it. | ||
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Jealous
10087 Posts
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Jealous
10087 Posts
On September 24 2016 11:26 DoYouHas wrote: I think I like you as well Stutters. Good on ya. - I'll try to get into something beyond these gut reads tomorrow, hopefully when a few more people have posted. As is I'm pretty happy with tonight. 3/5 for my town pile and 2 I need to think about and watch. Gnight. Promises more substance tomorrow, let's see if he delivers. + Show Spoiler + On September 25 2016 10:11 DoYouHas wrote: I am around Stutters. What are your thoughts on ptmc? I'll trade you for some on SEQ. He's been gone for almost 24 hours and comes back with this. For reference, Stutters was making a case on SEQ and told people to go look at SEQ filter. DYH is basically saying "okay, I'll do what you suggest to check out your scumread and work with you, but only if you give me your thoughts on ptmc, about whom I haven't said a word yet." I don't know if this is very townie behavior. Why wouldn't he just give his thoughts on SEQ and then ask about ptmc? + Show Spoiler [Sidenote] + Interesting post from Xata on this, prior to DoYouHas' return: On September 25 2016 06:50 Xatalos wrote: DoYouHas did make quite a bit of posts earlier btw. 6 posts, only 4 of which were during the game, and none of which had substance besides 3 gut reads. Is this really worth commenting on? Is this really "quite a bit?" Hmm. + Show Spoiler + On September 25 2016 10:16 DoYouHas wrote: It is absolutely anti-town. Do you think it is bad play or scum? On September 25 2016 10:53 DoYouHas wrote: So is it bad enough that you would want to lynch him or do you currently have a stronger scum read on someone else currently? On September 25 2016 11:09 DoYouHas wrote: @Jealous, are you in and out? Why is it taking you this long to respond to me? As Tictock pointed out, DYH seems to be pressuring me more than Lunatic despite (at least superficially) agreeing with me that Lunatic is playing anti-town. In fact, DYH hadn't said a word about Lunatic at all up until this point. Surely he saw the post? Why ignore Lunatic? Why jump on me? + Show Spoiler + On September 26 2016 03:45 DoYouHas wrote: You have Giacomo! (so long as you are leading against DH, Luna, or Jealous) So he throws Luna into the mix now that Luna has drawn attention but dilutes it by throwing two other names in there, neither of which he had mentioned until now. The only person he had really said anything of substance about until here is SEQ, besides his gutreads at the start of the game. (Also, he didn't really contribute anything in over 27 hours, despite promising to do so). This is his first time calling any of the three scum, and does it in a way that provides no substance whatsoever. + Show Spoiler + On September 26 2016 03:58 DoYouHas wrote: Activity levels are low and there are better lynch targets than you, especially if your going to ramp up. DH's tunnel onto Luna is very contrived with no follow through. Pair that with his questionable early posting and it feels like scum to me. Maybe he brings something to the table before deadline now, but it feels like he tunneled just long enough to get the spotlight on someone else then disappeared. Luna made an anti-town play and has essentially shut down since coming under the displeasure of the thread, making him a very reasonable lynch and possible scum. I don't think making a meta read is in any way alignment indicative but I appear to be in the minority on that. Jealous started with fluff, then stirred the pot, and finished by being super non-commital. Townies should be trusting there own judgement over that of people's whose alignments are uncertain. Also potentially scum. Here he elaborates, imaginably because he is trying to get Superbia to sheep him. Doesn't like DH for scumreading Luna, despite also saying Luna is "possible scum," and then puts me in the same group again. Note, I was against Luna at the time as well. How would that team of 3 ever make sense? Both I and DH go for a bus halfway through D1 when there were only a handful of pages and posts, after telling Lunatic to post like an idiot? That's a stretch, and DYH makes no sense here otherwise. + Show Spoiler + On September 26 2016 04:04 DoYouHas wrote: I don't think Luna and Dane are likely to be scum together, but taking there play individually I think either of them could be scum here. Is that what you meant? I guess this explains the previous post somewhat, but he only makes the distinction when asked by Superbia? You would think that would be something you'd want to put in your post that is supposed to be informative to Superbia, and not only when probed further. In short, he threw out three scum reads he had never mentioned until then, then elaborated on it, but didn't mention he didn't think they were on a team together. That's careless at best; misleading seems more likely. On September 26 2016 04:18 DoYouHas wrote: ##Vote: Luna Kind of a shame, in my head he was going to come back strong today and I was going to be able to make a case for Dane over him. But every hour that goes by without him contributing makes it more and more likely he flips scum. This post still sucks. + Show Spoiler + On September 26 2016 04:27 DoYouHas wrote: Or maybe, just maybe, both of your assumptions are wrong here. 1. I wasn't providing a null read on SEQ 2. I was actually trying to have a conversation with someone I townread. Stutters being the "someone I townread," which he did with "gut" in the first few hours of the game, which he never mentioned again. Also note that he still hasn't provided anything as he had promised at the start. + Show Spoiler + On September 26 2016 10:32 DoYouHas wrote: Ok, here is where I'm at for the night Mafia Jealous Town Rels SEQ Calix Stutters Skynx Probably Town Xata Looking better post-flip Dane Unsure Scott Superbia ptmc Dane(again) I ask why I am his scumread, only scumread. + Show Spoiler + On September 26 2016 11:56 DoYouHas wrote: GRAH, I CAN'T MAKE IT STICK For everything I don't like about you and think makes you scum: Your early fluff, non-committal, over-defensiveness, appeals to your noobieness, misrepresenting me, buddying Calix, looking at the proposal of multiple wagons from a mafia perspective instead of a town one (looking at it as a trap to be avoided instead of as an opportunity for better VCA) I can't seem to find the mafia actions in your play around the lynch. If I'm having trouble convincing myself of probably the most important part when I undoubtedly have my confirmation bias glasses on it probably isn't there. I was seeing your tonal shifts from casually attacking Luna to guarded consideration then back to casual attacking as very odd. But the thing I can't figure out if you are scum is why you would leave your vote on Luna and not Stutters before the wagon on Luna got rolling. This post: It doesn't fit or is significantly more clever than I am. Damn, damn, damn. I hate having no scum reads. I really do need to get to bed though. See you all with the daypost. This takes him a whole hour and he calls me all sorts of terrible but still can't make a case. This means he is town/null-reading everyone in the game, was pushing a lynch/scumread since his first few posts D1 that he himself can't support and had given no concrete evidence on at all until he was forced to draw some out. That is simply foolish, and scummy in my book. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/513316-newbie-student-mafia-xxiii?page=40#791 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/513316-newbie-student-mafia-xxiii?page=40#792 These are his last two posts, nearly a day ago. And frankly, I don't think they are very good. Although I think Rels post did have some stuff I didn't agree with, and DYH pointed them out, the rest of it was pretty weak. He doesn't make much sense in some parts nor does he substantiate much of his argument about why DH or I were scummy, which he references a few times. His earlier posts on the subject were, as you can see above, were weak as well, so it's not like he could reference some strong analysis from before. Overall, I think DYH is scum. I don't think neither Xata nor skynx are worth a vote right now, but I will definitely look into them more in detail. There are still some fishy things I don't like about Xata and Skynx doesn't seem to be paying much attention to the game in certain posts of his, which I don't like but can't necessarily say is scummy until I see them side-by-side in analysis. So yea, I voted DYH. | ||
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Jealous
10087 Posts
1. Xata: Although he put in effort and produced some content, as I was reading it I realized I wasn't agreeing with some key points in it, mostly his team associations and rationale. I was expecting to read through the post and glean something new from another perspective, but for the most part I feel that he just repeated the same reads he's had for a while in a different way with better formatting. His completely forgetting ptmc is curious as he referenced him within the same post, which isn't really saying anything AI but speaks of how thoroughly he has gone through the thread while making this list. He is still intent on Skynx, still doesn't want to give me much credit for pushing Luna, and failed to arrive at anything definitive. He has 2 scumreads but says they can't be on a team together? 2. Skynx: I'm actually really liking his list of reads right now. I wouldn't put Xata in the conf.scum category quite yet. I find Stutters and DYH to be much worse. What is more important for me is that he is showing what I find to be a more realistic view of the game so far, better than he did a few pages/days ago when I would look at some of his read s and go "huh?" I fear there might be a decent possibility that him vs. Xata is TvT but I'm not yet convinced. Either way, I wouldn't lynch Xata today. Skynx moves a little closer to a town lean for me. 3. I still dislike Stutters greatly. Maybe even more so than DYH, but that might be a chronological bias since I've seen more said about him recently and no words out of his mouth about it. The defense of Stutters seems to hinge on one post of Lunatic's, which I don't find to be a very good thing to put our money on. A person. Who could fuck up D1 so royally could fuck up more than once. I am tempted to switch to Stutters, but I'll keep my money on DYH since I read into his filter more and thus won't be taking someone else's word for it. Scummy af: DYH, Stutters Nullish: Scott, Skynx, Xata Town of varying degrees: everyone else I have the paranoid suspicion that one of our trusted townies might be a bussing scum but I've learned to fight through that paranoia and focus on the tangible until my current scumlist is settled. See y'all after work. | ||
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Jealous
10087 Posts
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Jealous
10087 Posts
On September 29 2016 05:31 Xatalos wrote: It's worked for me in the past though. In one game it pretty much won the game. Granted, it was on D3/D4 or something, so a bit later. Although I've heard others say it isn't recommended too, I also have had a good experience with doing this in D4. However, I feel that there is a time and place, and this was not it. The broadness of your findings are a testament to this. On September 29 2016 06:06 DoYouHas wrote: I have absolutely not read D2 properly. As I said, I've been slammed. Then why are you posting reads that are outdated instead of updating your information? @Calix: #gotem | ||
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Jealous
10087 Posts
On September 29 2016 06:11 DoYouHas wrote: Iunno, gets em out faster but in 5 posts instead of 10? Because I am, that's why. Next 2 are harder. I haven't paid much attention to skynx or scott this game. "Hey guys, I haven't read half of the game and I haven't really paid any attention to these posters, but here's my opinion." ![[image loading]](http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_E9NPoeLuzC4/SBduCiDE-sI/AAAAAAAAAMM/ChOEeq0pFsc/s320/miss-south-carolina-2007-teen-pageant.jpg) | ||
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Jealous
10087 Posts
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Jealous
10087 Posts
On September 29 2016 06:35 DoYouHas wrote: True or not you don't tell someone you think is scum to stop posting pre-flip, that is extremely foolish. I didn't tell you to stop posting pre-flip, I suggested that you might want to read the thread before posting reads tho. Like, pick one person and give a read, if you're pressed for time. | ||
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Jealous
10087 Posts
On September 29 2016 06:34 DoYouHas wrote: ##Vote: Scott I've been thinking about Superbia's kill. There are 4 reasons I can think of for it. 1. Medic dodge. 2. Town is off track, didn't want a fresh vet voice changing things 3. Superbia is on right track 4. WIFOM salad #1 is obviously the case. With their RB gone they aren't going to target Calix (most townread person N1). #2 is iffy. Obviously taking out a fresh voice in Superbia accomplishes this, but he isn't heavily townread and he has stated repeatedly that he was going to be lazy this game. #3 is the most likely case. After losing your RB the first night you can't risk someone with correct suspicions putting you down 0-2. Most common reason to kill someone, also makes the most sense from the mafia perspective this game. #4 is very unlikely. There are too many people who have established themselves decently as town, too many people more productive than Superbia. What about the fact that Superbia posted that he was a PR? You don't think scum might have said "fuck it, why not?" If they did, then who would it be that would call Superbia's bluff? | ||
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Jealous
10087 Posts
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