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-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
On August 02 2016 08:34 J Roc wrote: Was against a mderg lynch the whole time Honestly? For a while I personally wasn't. Hence I asked to be convinced and was open to switching. Rels didn't convince me so I stayed where I was. And the more time went on the more sure I got more and more uncomfortable with it. Which is why I pulled up the possibility of shenanies. X-( | ||
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-Celestial-
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mderg (4): scott31337, Rels, Grackaroni, Slientwarrior Almost definitely at least one mafia in there as far as I'm concerned. I'll have to look through the votes and vote switches properly. But no way can I see no mafia on that wagon. | ||
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On August 02 2016 09:48 MoosyDoosy wrote: hm Hmm? And where the hell have you been? | ||
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Evidently, given the lack of voting. -_- | ||
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On August 02 2016 09:52 MoosyDoosy wrote: yessir. do you still think rels is in the red? More or less his entire contribution to the game so far has been to focus mderg, a now flipped town, like a laser and get him lynched. So yes, I'd be an idiot not to be incredibly suspicious of him. Though how much of it is just because I'm still pissed off about the vote is questionable. I'll have a better idea tomorrow. I'm going to re-read his filter then. If I was to take a more measured approach I might say that Rels' focus on mderg left him absolutely zero wriggle room when mderg flipped town. Which is an incredibly risky position to put yourself in as a mafia. Not to mention the thread didn't really need driving in that way if he was mafia because it was all still very up in the air. But then again he did leave himself a bit of an out when he said he might just be super tunneled. On the balance of it he looks awful post-flip. But WIFOM strikes again. I'm hoping to be able to put together a full post of my thoughts by tomorrow anyway. Honestly concerned I could well be dead by Day 2. And right now I've had a bit too much wine to be properly coherent for something like that. | ||
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-Celestial-
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On August 02 2016 10:12 J Roc wrote: Wouldn't lynch you at this point. Why would I? Rels needs to be looked at much harder because I disagreed with him on mderg but Scott is scum. Honestly I could be comfortable with a D2 scott lynch at this point. Previously I was back and forth pretty regularly in my head. Which resulted in my really not wanting to D1 lynch him. But given that cute little thing about a mafia team consisting of me, mderg and Stutters; after which he more or less buggered off; I'm finding him pretty dodgy. Like...that was a super easy way to make it just that bit harder to prevent the mderg mislynch. But one which he can easily sweep under the carpet and dismiss later on. | ||
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-Celestial-
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On August 02 2016 10:14 MoosyDoosy wrote: A fair amount of your bloodthirst for Rels is from the wrong D1 lynch, the fact that you changed your vote, and tbh probably the wine. Er...I didn't change my vote. I have a soul read situation with Rels and I'm like 80% sure he's town right now. Please don't do it like this. Come up with something better than a 'feeling' and explain how his actions were town. Because this is almost literally what happened between a couple of people and prplhz in a previous game I played. In fact its weirding me out a bit where this is going right now. There was this big thing about how people were 'mind-melding' with him and heavily town reading him because of vague feelings; totally overlooking the fact that everything he had actually DONE amounted to jack all but being afk a bunch and then some harm to town. He turned out to be mafia. | ||
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-Celestial-
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On August 02 2016 10:19 MoosyDoosy wrote: A lot of my reads align with scott. A lot of Rels' reads align with scott. I really wish people would stop being super weird about this scott 'read'. Because it wasn't really a read. It was a list of people who were voting on Race before the replacement that he was going to look into. That's totally uninformative as a post to quote as evidence that you're townreading him. And yes, there could have easily been someone on the Race wagon purely because it was a super, super easy lynch to make, he was winding people up. But I don't think you can really draw much from it at all unless you have literally no other information to go on. | ||
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On August 02 2016 10:32 J Roc wrote: Like seriousness. Nothing race bannon did was alignment indicative, nothing. So you can't say he was low hanging fruit like he was confirmed town. He can play like that as either alignment. To be fair I don't think Moosy is necessarily implying Race was/scott is town. Race was low hanging fruit whichever alignment you were. If I was on his scum team and he was screwing about like that I'd be on that plynch train faster than you can say 'bus' because it was clear he wasn't going to be any help whichever alignment he was, and the free town points for a mafia kill would have been too much of a temptation to ignore. | ||
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-Celestial-
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On August 02 2016 10:37 MoosyDoosy wrote: Oops you're right. xP But the vote changed from your target and you didn't get who you wanted to kill. I'm actually not too bothered about that specifically. My target was scummy enough to lynch but its not like I wasn't open to changing my mind, hell I explicitly asked for a convincing argument against mderg. My frustration mainly comes from that fact that as the deadline approached it became fairly blatant that there was no way mderg was going to flip mafia. I mean, that accidental hammer on himself should have set EVERYONE'S alarm bells ringing. Ultimately Rels came up with an argument that was okay at first glance but the more I looked at it and the more I looked at the way the thread was going as the deadline approached; something seemed off. And yet nobody else seemed to see it except Stutters. For the record...I'll have to do a check on his filter but right now I'm feeling like I'm absolutely not interested in lynching Stutters D2 unless he suddenly goes horribly bad. On August 02 2016 10:39 MoosyDoosy wrote: Congrats! Now who was on both wagons. Unless I'm missing something then nobody? Final count was this: On August 02 2016 08:03 Shapelog wrote: mderg (4): scott31337 (1): KelsierSC, I don't see any duplicates there. You going somewhere with this? | ||
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On August 02 2016 10:58 Stutters695 wrote: Next up will either be silent or general vca. I'll let you guys choose. Personally I'd rather you bang out something on silent first. I'm starting to put my own thoughts together in order to leave a legacy post before EoN just in case I get blown away. Other people's thoughts are useful. | ||
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I mean I was looking pretty suspiciously at everyone on that mderg wagon, of course, but I've been focusing the peevishness on Rels so far because he led that train. Grack I was scumfeeling in my first analysis, he's kinda drifted about a bit since then back and forth. But seeing it all laid out like that is very tempting. I'll have to look into his filter myself tomorrow quite a bit before I'm totally convinced though. No substitute for first-hand checking. | ||
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On August 02 2016 11:04 MoosyDoosy wrote: I'm fairly certain Stutters caught onto what I saw which makes me happy. I'll check by every now and then but I'm basically done with posting for the night. You're implying that Grack drove the mislynch train right to the deadline and then tried to step back from the controls at the last moment to try to save himself on D2? I could probably buy into that tbh. | ||
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On August 02 2016 11:06 MoosyDoosy wrote: Please take note of the names that pop up within the quotes.  Celestial, if you'd be so kind as to look at the names that commonly pop up and cross check them with the vote count that would be great. Well off your last set of quotes I'm assuming you're implying at least Grack and silent. Grack: Kelsier (31/7 01:51 BST) > mderg (1/8 00:20) > Unvote (1/8 18:02) > Lunaticman (1/8 19:27) > Stutters (1/8 19:57) > mderg (1/8 22:30) silent: Kelsier (31/7 11:39) > Stutters (1/8 21:53) > mderg (1/8 23:40) ...both Grack and silent were on the same people at the same time on three separate occasions. Surely it can't be that easy? | ||
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Kelsier - Grack at 01:51, silent ~10 hours later Stutters - Grack at 19:57, silent ~2 hours later mderg - Grack at 22:30, silent an hour later | ||
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We lynch Grack. If he flips scum we lynch silent. That's two scum right? Like...I'm not missing something blindingly obvious here? | ||
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On August 02 2016 11:33 Stutters695 wrote: FWIW I wouldn't put too much credence in the vote patterns for them (especially Grack unless you find him scummy to begin with). Gracks KSC vote was clearly a joke at the very start of the game. When Silent came back and was a potential lynch target, he had to come out somewhat strong (regardless of alignment) and I was certainly an easy choice to pump something out on. The last vote by silent was to save himself so of course he'd pick the other wagon. Thing is I was scumfeeling both of them in my very first set of reads. I was back and forth on them quite a bit, especially after engaging with Grack for a bit, but never entirely convinced of innocence. That voting pattern has a hell of a kick to it though. I should go to bed in any case and sit down and calmly work through my full analysis tomorrow. Its 4am and my mind is all over the place. | ||
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Also: I did wait too long for shenannies! If you wanted shennanies you should have started them earlier. I brought up a possible shenanie target a solid 27 minutes before EoD. I then again brought up the possibility of shenanies onto either myself or KSC thirteen minutes before EoD. Stop trying to pretend that nobody had starting looking into it before it was too late when its easily proven to be a lie. Nobody expressed real interest. In either. Until mderg said about it eight minutes before deadline. Both were with plenty of time for anyone to start saying "alright, I'd be up for that". I didn't start any actual movement myself because at that point I was sitting on the next-highest wagon in the hopes there was a chance to still save mderg. | ||
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