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On July 01 2016 21:06 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2016 21:01 Jean Valjean wrote:On July 01 2016 20:52 Jealous wrote:On July 01 2016 20:28 Jean Valjean wrote:On July 01 2016 20:13 Jealous wrote:On July 01 2016 19:43 Superbia wrote:
It's not that difficult.
1. Pardon if bodyguard is about to get lynched.
2. Pardon if glowingbear and bodyguard are alive during final 4. The reasons as to why pardon will be used are not mathematically relevant, it's the fact that to prepare for all possible scenarios one needs to examine both whether it does or does not happen, whether Jean is scum or not scum. As you said, Jean cannot be in the final 3. My argument is that he cannot be in the final 4, either. This is a dumb discussion and you should reconsider if you actually think this. Essentially you're telling the scum "hey, if you get a mislynch today, you'll get a free extra one tomorrow!" We're not going to default lynch, we're going to keep lynching the most scummy people until the game ends. True, especially the last bit. However, being short-sighted has already cost us. I don't think it's bad practice to map all the possible roads this game can take. When did being short-sighted cost us? Losing Chezinu because of what was effectively a policy lynch.
See I disagree. I don't think it was a policy lynch. At the time I had more reason to believe he's scum than anyone else in the game.
On the other hand, as admitted back on day 1, I have a particular weak spot in reading trolls, so perhaps people who know how to understand and figure out trolls considered it a policy lynch.
Where do you stand today?
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On July 01 2016 20:52 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2016 20:28 Jean Valjean wrote:On July 01 2016 20:13 Jealous wrote:On July 01 2016 19:43 Superbia wrote:
It's not that difficult.
1. Pardon if bodyguard is about to get lynched.
2. Pardon if glowingbear and bodyguard are alive during final 4. The reasons as to why pardon will be used are not mathematically relevant, it's the fact that to prepare for all possible scenarios one needs to examine both whether it does or does not happen, whether Jean is scum or not scum. As you said, Jean cannot be in the final 3. My argument is that he cannot be in the final 4, either. This is a dumb discussion and you should reconsider if you actually think this. Essentially you're telling the scum "hey, if you get a mislynch today, you'll get a free extra one tomorrow!" We're not going to default lynch, we're going to keep lynching the most scummy people until the game ends. True, especially the last bit. However, being short-sighted has already cost us. I don't think it's bad practice to map all the possible roads this game can take. Show nested quote +On July 01 2016 20:43 Skynx wrote:On July 01 2016 19:37 Jealous wrote:On July 01 2016 19:32 Jealous wrote:
Bah, scum wouldn't even need to shenanie in D5, they would just have to vote for Jean just like the other two players remaining and that'd be a wrap if Jean was town. Yea, damn, I didn't put enough time into the above post. I thought it would be pretty simple to math it out but it's mad complicated. Even if we forget PRs for a moment, there are the following scenarios: 1. Jean is scum, and pardon has been used. 2. Jean is scum, and pardon has not been used. 3. Jean is not scum, and pardon has been used. 4. Jean is not scum, and pardon has not been used. Each requires their own mathematical breakdown. Agh. Mafia can also hold their shot. To what benefit? Can you elaborate? The only thing I can think of is to potentially force a vet to claim because he will think he has been shot?
Prevents a kill, same as a pardon. Not to any benefit but since i didn't understand the logic i just pointed it out 
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Anyway where are you Tumble? You got a few votes on you bro.
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On July 01 2016 20:30 Superbia wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2016 20:13 Jealous wrote:On July 01 2016 19:43 Superbia wrote:
It's not that difficult.
1. Pardon if bodyguard is about to get lynched.
2. Pardon if glowingbear and bodyguard are alive during final 4. The reasons as to why pardon will be used are not mathematically relevant, it's the fact that to prepare for all possible scenarios one needs to examine both whether it does or does not happen, whether Jean is scum or not scum. As you said, Jean cannot be in the final 3. My argument is that he cannot be in the final 4, either. Jean should be looked at tomorrow.  I can elaborate on this but I probably won't today.
You should probably do it today. I'm flipping my read on him.
I don't want to lynch people inside my wagon day1 and I don't want to lynch Damdred today because I respect the read Artanis brought. The pool is very narrowed.
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Jealous, what's your read on JVJ?
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On July 01 2016 23:54 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2016 20:30 Superbia wrote:On July 01 2016 20:13 Jealous wrote:On July 01 2016 19:43 Superbia wrote:
It's not that difficult.
1. Pardon if bodyguard is about to get lynched.
2. Pardon if glowingbear and bodyguard are alive during final 4. The reasons as to why pardon will be used are not mathematically relevant, it's the fact that to prepare for all possible scenarios one needs to examine both whether it does or does not happen, whether Jean is scum or not scum. As you said, Jean cannot be in the final 3. My argument is that he cannot be in the final 4, either. Jean should be looked at tomorrow. I can elaborate on this but I probably won't today. You should probably do it today. I'm flipping my read on him. I don't want to lynch people inside my wagon day1 and I don't want to lynch Damdred today because I respect the read Artanis brought. The pool is very narrowed.
If you believe your bodyguard is town then Jean living to tomorrow is irrelevant.
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On July 02 2016 00:23 Superbia wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2016 23:54 GlowingBear wrote:On July 01 2016 20:30 Superbia wrote:On July 01 2016 20:13 Jealous wrote:On July 01 2016 19:43 Superbia wrote:
It's not that difficult.
1. Pardon if bodyguard is about to get lynched.
2. Pardon if glowingbear and bodyguard are alive during final 4. The reasons as to why pardon will be used are not mathematically relevant, it's the fact that to prepare for all possible scenarios one needs to examine both whether it does or does not happen, whether Jean is scum or not scum. As you said, Jean cannot be in the final 3. My argument is that he cannot be in the final 4, either. Jean should be looked at tomorrow. I can elaborate on this but I probably won't today. You should probably do it today. I'm flipping my read on him. I don't want to lynch people inside my wagon day1 and I don't want to lynch Damdred today because I respect the read Artanis brought. The pool is very narrowed. If you believe your bodyguard is town then Jean living to tomorrow is irrelevant.
I still don't get it...
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On July 02 2016 00:27 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2016 00:23 Superbia wrote:On July 01 2016 23:54 GlowingBear wrote:On July 01 2016 20:30 Superbia wrote:On July 01 2016 20:13 Jealous wrote:On July 01 2016 19:43 Superbia wrote:
It's not that difficult.
1. Pardon if bodyguard is about to get lynched.
2. Pardon if glowingbear and bodyguard are alive during final 4. The reasons as to why pardon will be used are not mathematically relevant, it's the fact that to prepare for all possible scenarios one needs to examine both whether it does or does not happen, whether Jean is scum or not scum. As you said, Jean cannot be in the final 3. My argument is that he cannot be in the final 4, either. Jean should be looked at tomorrow. I can elaborate on this but I probably won't today. You should probably do it today. I'm flipping my read on him. I don't want to lynch people inside my wagon day1 and I don't want to lynch Damdred today because I respect the read Artanis brought. The pool is very narrowed. If you believe your bodyguard is town then Jean living to tomorrow is irrelevant. I still don't get it...
SIGH. Just imagine how you could die.
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Anyway let's not talk about this.
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I just got home from work so I'm going to relax for now. May read some tumblemeta this evening or something.
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It's unlikely in this setup for us to have a medic/RB/jailer or vet of some kind I think.
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On July 02 2016 00:59 Damdred wrote:
It's unlikely in this setup for us to have a medic/RB/jailer or vet of some kind I think.
Depends.
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On July 01 2016 22:42 Jean Valjean wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2016 21:06 Jealous wrote:On July 01 2016 21:01 Jean Valjean wrote:On July 01 2016 20:52 Jealous wrote:On July 01 2016 20:28 Jean Valjean wrote:On July 01 2016 20:13 Jealous wrote:On July 01 2016 19:43 Superbia wrote:
It's not that difficult.
1. Pardon if bodyguard is about to get lynched.
2. Pardon if glowingbear and bodyguard are alive during final 4. The reasons as to why pardon will be used are not mathematically relevant, it's the fact that to prepare for all possible scenarios one needs to examine both whether it does or does not happen, whether Jean is scum or not scum. As you said, Jean cannot be in the final 3. My argument is that he cannot be in the final 4, either. This is a dumb discussion and you should reconsider if you actually think this. Essentially you're telling the scum "hey, if you get a mislynch today, you'll get a free extra one tomorrow!" We're not going to default lynch, we're going to keep lynching the most scummy people until the game ends. True, especially the last bit. However, being short-sighted has already cost us. I don't think it's bad practice to map all the possible roads this game can take. When did being short-sighted cost us? Losing Chezinu because of what was effectively a policy lynch. See I disagree. I don't think it was a policy lynch. At the time I had more reason to believe he's scum than anyone else in the game. On the other hand, as admitted back on day 1, I have a particular weak spot in reading trolls, so perhaps people who know how to understand and figure out trolls considered it a policy lynch. Where do you stand today?
Damdred has been playing pretty well ever since I raised the case against him. It's causing me to doubt my initial conviction. As I haven't had any detailed cases built for anyone else, I will have to do some filter digging when I get the chance, but I am moving today so I don't think I'll have that time for quite a while.
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On July 02 2016 00:00 GlowingBear wrote:
Jealous, what's your read on JVJ?
Despite my initial misgivings, I have been leaning town on him for a while. I will have to look through his filter to see if that should change.
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On July 02 2016 03:08 Jealous wrote:Despite my initial misgivings, I have been leaning town on him for a while. I will have to look through his filter to see if that should change.
I'd love if you did it. I'm really interested.
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On July 02 2016 03:17 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2016 03:08 Jealous wrote:On July 02 2016 00:00 GlowingBear wrote:
Jealous, what's your read on JVJ? Despite my initial misgivings, I have been leaning town on him for a while. I will have to look through his filter to see if that should change. I'd love if you did it. I'm really interested.
I will. As I said though, I'm moving today so I might only be able to start in 12 hours. To-do list: TT, Damdred re-hash, JVJ.
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On July 02 2016 01:36 Superbia wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2016 00:59 Damdred wrote:
It's unlikely in this setup for us to have a medic/RB/jailer or vet of some kind I think. Depends.
Nah super unlikely
Basically if you give bodyguard to a town and both mayor and pardoner are town already mafia is forced to shoot into like 7 people n1. Throw in a medic save and mafia is highly behind already.
It just isn't balanced IMO, I mean you do have idiot medic moves but n1 qt should of been saved if we have a medic or jk.
Also GB I think you should claim who the bg is like 5 seconds before eon if we don't hit mafia today, agree or disagree?
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On July 02 2016 03:37 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2016 01:36 Superbia wrote:On July 02 2016 00:59 Damdred wrote:
It's unlikely in this setup for us to have a medic/RB/jailer or vet of some kind I think. Depends. Nah super unlikely Basically if you give bodyguard to a town and both mayor and pardoner are town already mafia is forced to shoot into like 7 people n1. Throw in a medic save and mafia is highly behind already. It just isn't balanced IMO, I mean you do have idiot medic moves but n1 qt should of been saved if we have a medic or jk. Also GB I think you should claim who the bg is like 5 seconds before eon if we don't hit mafia today, agree or disagree?
Mafia can contest all three roles. If they fail to get mayor pardoner and bg they should be behind
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On July 02 2016 03:37 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2016 01:36 Superbia wrote:On July 02 2016 00:59 Damdred wrote:
It's unlikely in this setup for us to have a medic/RB/jailer or vet of some kind I think. Depends. Nah super unlikely Basically if you give bodyguard to a town and both mayor and pardoner are town already mafia is forced to shoot into like 7 people n1. Throw in a medic save and mafia is highly behind already. It just isn't balanced IMO, I mean you do have idiot medic moves but n1 qt should of been saved if we have a medic or jk. Also GB I think you should claim who the bg is like 5 seconds before eon if we don't hit mafia today, agree or disagree?
As of today I'm basically sure Damdred is my #1 townread.
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Never flipping mafia:
JVJ
Damdred
GB
Jealous
Townie:
Superbia
Skynx
Flip flop material:
tictock
tumblewood
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EPT
