EPT
[M][N] Presidential Election Mini Mafia - Page 101
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Superbia
Netherlands8889 Posts
| ||
|
Superbia
Netherlands8889 Posts
Actually he wouldn't need to claim bc Glowingbear can just pardon since he knows the bodyguard. | ||
|
Superbia
Netherlands8889 Posts
I'm pretty sure I know what roles there are in this game and who have them. | ||
|
Jean Valjean
France216 Posts
On July 01 2016 13:04 Tictock wrote: No offense to Moosy... But you are giving his "sacrificial" play too much credit and planning. Lol Yes. There very much exists the chance moosy is just... special | ||
|
Superbia
Netherlands8889 Posts
| ||
|
Superbia
Netherlands8889 Posts
| ||
|
Jealous
10256 Posts
On July 01 2016 18:11 Superbia wrote: Actually jean can never live to final 3 because he'd win if he's mafia. Agreed. | ||
|
Superbia
Netherlands8889 Posts
Why? | ||
|
Jealous
10256 Posts
Because of math. | ||
|
Superbia
Netherlands8889 Posts
Explain why this is true pls. x; | ||
|
Jealous
10256 Posts
Even if GB is still in the game and he pardons either himself or whoever the other townie is, Jean will just NK the other townie, GG. Without Jean being in the final 3, there is at least one more Day for the three remaining players to figure out who is scum. With Jean being in the final 3, even if he is not scum, we place all of our faith in his decision. I trust two heads over one, in the sense that the two remaining townies would know that each of their votes is as crucial to winning the game as the other's. However, this does not mean I support lynching Jean now or at any point prior to this situation. When there are only Scratch that. We have 8 players remaining at the start of this Day cycle. This means that (if we assume there is no pardon): After D3 = 7 people After N3 = 6 people After D4 = 5 people '' N4 = 4 people '' D5 = 3 people '' N5 = 2 people, gg This means there will never be a Day cycle with 3 people, or an odd number of people (again, if we assume no pardon). If we get to this point of 4 people (D5) and we lynch Jean and he flips town, then town loses. At D5 people can still lynch Jean with a 3-2 majority, but this is also risky because if Jean is town and votes a mislynch, scum can shenanie at the last moment and swing the 3-2 in the other direction and win that way. Thus, if we don't lynch scum in D3 or D4, town will likely lose. Therefore, Jean must die in D4 in order to give town another day to vote. | ||
|
Jealous
10256 Posts
Will have to analyze this when I have more time tomorrow. | ||
|
Jealous
10256 Posts
| ||
|
Jealous
10256 Posts
| ||
|
Jealous
10256 Posts
On July 01 2016 19:32 Jealous wrote: Bah, scum wouldn't even need to shenanie in D5, they would just have to vote for Jean just like the other two players remaining and that'd be a wrap if Jean was town. Yea, damn, I didn't put enough time into the above post. I thought it would be pretty simple to math it out but it's mad complicated. Even if we forget PRs for a moment, there are the following scenarios: 1. Jean is scum, and pardon has been used. 2. Jean is scum, and pardon has not been used. 3. Jean is not scum, and pardon has been used. 4. Jean is not scum, and pardon has not been used. Each requires their own mathematical breakdown. Agh. | ||
|
Superbia
Netherlands8889 Posts
1. Pardon if bodyguard is about to get lynched. 2. Pardon if glowingbear and bodyguard are alive during final 4. | ||
|
Superbia
Netherlands8889 Posts
| ||
|
Jean Valjean
France216 Posts
Tumblewood is meh, so whatever. Tictock doesn't really sound like mafia yet. I'm also hoping to clear one of the potentially suspicious people with a blue claim so there's that. | ||
|
Superbia
Netherlands8889 Posts
TW has been remarkably absent. Or I may just be miss-remembering when he was last active. | ||
|
Superbia
Netherlands8889 Posts
| ||
| ||
