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On July 01 2016 19:43 Superbia wrote:
It's not that difficult.
1. Pardon if bodyguard is about to get lynched.
2. Pardon if glowingbear and bodyguard are alive during final 4.
The reasons as to why pardon will be used are not mathematically relevant, it's the fact that to prepare for all possible scenarios one needs to examine both whether it does or does not happen, whether Jean is scum or not scum.
As you said, Jean cannot be in the final 3. My argument is that he cannot be in the final 4, either.
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On July 01 2016 20:13 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2016 19:43 Superbia wrote:
It's not that difficult.
1. Pardon if bodyguard is about to get lynched.
2. Pardon if glowingbear and bodyguard are alive during final 4. The reasons as to why pardon will be used are not mathematically relevant, it's the fact that to prepare for all possible scenarios one needs to examine both whether it does or does not happen, whether Jean is scum or not scum. As you said, Jean cannot be in the final 3. My argument is that he cannot be in the final 4, either.
This is a dumb discussion and you should reconsider if you actually think this.
Essentially you're telling the scum "hey, if you get a mislynch today, you'll get a free extra one tomorrow!"
We're not going to default lynch, we're going to keep lynching the most scummy people until the game ends.
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On July 01 2016 20:13 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2016 19:43 Superbia wrote:
It's not that difficult.
1. Pardon if bodyguard is about to get lynched.
2. Pardon if glowingbear and bodyguard are alive during final 4. The reasons as to why pardon will be used are not mathematically relevant, it's the fact that to prepare for all possible scenarios one needs to examine both whether it does or does not happen, whether Jean is scum or not scum. As you said, Jean cannot be in the final 3. My argument is that he cannot be in the final 4, either.
Jean should be looked at tomorrow.  I can elaborate on this but I probably won't today.
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Unless someone has a very good reason, he probably shouldn't be looked at today.
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On July 01 2016 19:37 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2016 19:32 Jealous wrote:
Bah, scum wouldn't even need to shenanie in D5, they would just have to vote for Jean just like the other two players remaining and that'd be a wrap if Jean was town. Yea, damn, I didn't put enough time into the above post. I thought it would be pretty simple to math it out but it's mad complicated. Even if we forget PRs for a moment, there are the following scenarios: 1. Jean is scum, and pardon has been used. 2. Jean is scum, and pardon has not been used. 3. Jean is not scum, and pardon has been used. 4. Jean is not scum, and pardon has not been used. Each requires their own mathematical breakdown. Agh.
Mafia can also hold their shot.
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On July 01 2016 20:28 Jean Valjean wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2016 20:13 Jealous wrote:On July 01 2016 19:43 Superbia wrote:
It's not that difficult.
1. Pardon if bodyguard is about to get lynched.
2. Pardon if glowingbear and bodyguard are alive during final 4. The reasons as to why pardon will be used are not mathematically relevant, it's the fact that to prepare for all possible scenarios one needs to examine both whether it does or does not happen, whether Jean is scum or not scum. As you said, Jean cannot be in the final 3. My argument is that he cannot be in the final 4, either. This is a dumb discussion and you should reconsider if you actually think this. Essentially you're telling the scum "hey, if you get a mislynch today, you'll get a free extra one tomorrow!" We're not going to default lynch, we're going to keep lynching the most scummy people until the game ends.
True, especially the last bit. However, being short-sighted has already cost us. I don't think it's bad practice to map all the possible roads this game can take.
On July 01 2016 20:43 Skynx wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2016 19:37 Jealous wrote:On July 01 2016 19:32 Jealous wrote:
Bah, scum wouldn't even need to shenanie in D5, they would just have to vote for Jean just like the other two players remaining and that'd be a wrap if Jean was town. Yea, damn, I didn't put enough time into the above post. I thought it would be pretty simple to math it out but it's mad complicated. Even if we forget PRs for a moment, there are the following scenarios: 1. Jean is scum, and pardon has been used. 2. Jean is scum, and pardon has not been used. 3. Jean is not scum, and pardon has been used. 4. Jean is not scum, and pardon has not been used. Each requires their own mathematical breakdown. Agh. Mafia can also hold their shot.
To what benefit? Can you elaborate?
The only thing I can think of is to potentially force a vet to claim because he will think he has been shot?
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Oh mafia can indeed hold their shot lolol.
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Doesn't really matter that much though.
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It'd be optimal in certain cases to sleep in order to force mafia to shoot an unconfirmed. In this case we can't.
Oh well.
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On July 01 2016 20:52 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2016 20:28 Jean Valjean wrote:On July 01 2016 20:13 Jealous wrote:On July 01 2016 19:43 Superbia wrote:
It's not that difficult.
1. Pardon if bodyguard is about to get lynched.
2. Pardon if glowingbear and bodyguard are alive during final 4. The reasons as to why pardon will be used are not mathematically relevant, it's the fact that to prepare for all possible scenarios one needs to examine both whether it does or does not happen, whether Jean is scum or not scum. As you said, Jean cannot be in the final 3. My argument is that he cannot be in the final 4, either. This is a dumb discussion and you should reconsider if you actually think this. Essentially you're telling the scum "hey, if you get a mislynch today, you'll get a free extra one tomorrow!" We're not going to default lynch, we're going to keep lynching the most scummy people until the game ends. True, especially the last bit. However, being short-sighted has already cost us. I don't think it's bad practice to map all the possible roads this game can take.
When did being short-sighted cost us?
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I am 100% hoping our other blue is a jailor. That'd be grand. He would already have 2 clears
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On July 01 2016 21:01 Jean Valjean wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2016 20:52 Jealous wrote:On July 01 2016 20:28 Jean Valjean wrote:On July 01 2016 20:13 Jealous wrote:On July 01 2016 19:43 Superbia wrote:
It's not that difficult.
1. Pardon if bodyguard is about to get lynched.
2. Pardon if glowingbear and bodyguard are alive during final 4. The reasons as to why pardon will be used are not mathematically relevant, it's the fact that to prepare for all possible scenarios one needs to examine both whether it does or does not happen, whether Jean is scum or not scum. As you said, Jean cannot be in the final 3. My argument is that he cannot be in the final 4, either. This is a dumb discussion and you should reconsider if you actually think this. Essentially you're telling the scum "hey, if you get a mislynch today, you'll get a free extra one tomorrow!" We're not going to default lynch, we're going to keep lynching the most scummy people until the game ends. True, especially the last bit. However, being short-sighted has already cost us. I don't think it's bad practice to map all the possible roads this game can take. When did being short-sighted cost us?
Losing Chezinu because of what was effectively a policy lynch.
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On July 01 2016 21:03 Jean Valjean wrote:
I am 100% hoping our other blue is a jailor. That'd be grand. He would already have 2 clears
This would be super game over. :D
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Actually roleblocks are not notified so maybe not so much.
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If there's a jailkeeper with 2 greens he needs to claim EoN w/ claims (like 1s before end of night).
Greens could still overlap w/ PRs.
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Actually jailkeeper w/ 2 alive targets is super gameover I think.
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Because he gets at worst a third confirmed at end of night. Just claim your target right before night ends. :D
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Yeah if there's a jailkeepr with 2 alive "jail targets", you should claim.
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Roleblocks resolve simultaneously.
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So it can still block mafia KP even if they're roleblocked in response.
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EPT
