[W][M] Newbie Mafia XXI

On June 05 2016 00:55 Tictock wrote:
Some townreads for now, then I'll be back after a shower to talk about scum reads.

Super - Jumped right in and has been really focused on interacting with people to develop reads. I've also found our thoughts on a large number of things have been in line. Probably never lynching.

Tumble - Dropping his thoughts when he feels like it, largely a meta read+ Show Spoiler + but I feel fairly confident in it.

Moosy - I'm not sure how to explain this read, but I'm decently solid on it for D1.

blkcoffee - has the right combination of not really giving a fuck and getting excited about something

There's a couple more town leans floating around but I'm gunna leave my town list at that for now.

On June 05 2016 12:46 nnn_thekushmountains wrote:


weird because i get the opposite impression. Paragraph after paragraph of text coming from mostly QT and Jealous about some argument they are having.

On June 06 2016 06:44 MoosyDoosy wrote:

i'm giving out all the fluffy wovey dovey town vibes. :D which is strange for me. O.O does that mean I'm scum? o/

On June 06 2016 07:13 Fecalfeast wrote:
A lot of quiet people this close to deadline has me worried for this wagon

On June 10 2016 09:02 MoosyDoosy wrote:
Vote beentheredonethat for now to put the pressure on him and the scum team to respond in some way. You can always change your votes later anyway.

On June 10 2016 15:53 beentheredonethat wrote:
Just catching up. Posting from mobile since Moosy just claimed. Since there was no cc just yet, I think he is either genuine or no cop is in. I am not scum and I really want to point out that there is a framer in. I am the doc. I was roleblocked night 1, trying to save tumble, and I saved Jealous last night.

Given that no vig kill on Emperor happened, I think we do not have a vig in which makes Moosys cmaim stronger. Only thing is that his claim forced me to claim myself. We will be fucked if we lynch myself for Moosys framed check. Moosy will be killed at night then and if I count correctly, we lost. I posted extremely low volume all the time to not get on scum radar which so far worked.

So long story short: Moosy is the cop. There is a framer in. I am doctor.

On June 10 2016 18:03 beentheredonethat wrote:


Three possible scenarios.

a) Moosy is cop, I am doc.
b) Moosy is scum fakeclaiming, I am doc
c) Moosy is cop, I am scum.

Superbia says that a) is not possible, so it's b) or c). Since I know that I am the doctor, I say it's b) and we should lynch Moosydoosy. He will of course say the opposite.

If Superbia is correct in his die simulation, we have scenario B. This means that both Moosy and me are dead, only the order is relevant. If I get lynched as Doc, Moosy will be lynched next day or shot by the potential vig next night. If Moosy gets lynched as scum, I will be shot at night by scum since I am the doc.

Worst situation though is if Superbia is wrong, situtation a is possible, and situation a is given. Then it's a lose-lose-situation: it's town-doc vs. town-cop. If Moosy gets lynched as cop, I will be lynched as doc. If I get lynched as doc, Moosy will be killed as cop.

Either way, situation a) would suck so I absolutely hope Superbia is right. Because if Superbia is right, then Moosy has just outed himself as scum and we lose Doctor at night vs. the first scummer.

On June 10 2016 10:04 Tictock wrote:
Ok I said I was gunna hold off, but mulling things over I think I feel pretty good about Moosy's claim. As such I propose we have a very solid town circle of Moosy, Jealous, and myself (I think I can backup why I am town if I need to).

I also feel pretty good about Emp being town still.

So question to Moosy and Jealous. What do you guys think about Emp?

Assuming for a moment that he is town, who do you think the last townie is? (between Skynx, Scott and Super)

+ Show Spoiler [Irony] +

Personally I could actually see a team of BtDt, Skynx and Super/Scott.

On June 10 2016 23:19 Skynx wrote:
Please please someone claim cop...

On June 11 2016 06:59 MoosyDoosy wrote:

you have to be happy or your scum lol. Who do you think are the remaining scum members?

On June 06 2016 07:54 Tictock wrote:
So we swapping to BtDt or Skynx then?

I'm ready.

On June 06 2016 07:56 Tictock wrote:
Lets do it.

##Vote: beentheredonethat

On June 10 2016 04:01 emperorchampion wrote:
Also using shenanigans for reads in these scenarios is completely bonkers

On June 13 2016 12:46 Jealous wrote:
Skynx/EC/Tictock all voted for the same person each day, except when TT did shennanies onto BTDT. Skynx always votes before EC. EC waited for another person to vote in between them in 2/3 days, except when he was last vote. Ticktock voted between the two of them on both of those instances, and shennanied later. They never voted first for the person who ended up lynched. The only person to note vote for the same person on those days is BTDT. So, unless scott is scum, then two of Skynx/EC/Tictock were working as a 2 man voting/bandwagoning cell. It's worth it to examine their interactions with each other.

Looking back at Day 1 data, we have:

+ Show Spoiler [beentheredonethat] +
+ Show Spoiler [emperorchampion] +
+ Show Spoiler [Skynx] +
+ Show Spoiler [Tictock] +

On June 13 2016 16:00 Jealous wrote:

I actually wrote all of that based on your data, not mine haha. Thanks for the color coding.

On June 09 2016 05:00 Fecalfeast wrote:
yup I'm going through emperor's filter. He flips on QT as it gets closer to him being killed, he says he's not sdure about me then calls me half life 3 confirmed town.

also:



This made me check and it seems he was really hedging his bets and skirting around making any hard calls at all about QT.

has QT in a possible scum pair


keeps QT in his lynch circle even though he was leaning more toward jealous as scum out of QT/jealous

QT/tumble mafia pair mentioned



This, among other posts also suggests that emperor should have been pushing jealous a lot more today rather than just being complacent with the thread direction.


so my questions for emperor:

What do you read Jealous as?

Who do you want to kill and why?

Why was it so hard for you to make a solid read on QT while talking about him so often?

On June 13 2016 16:44 Jealous wrote:

I wouldn't go as far as saying that.

On June 14 2016 06:11 Tictock wrote:
Humm, slowly catching up and rereading some stuff.

I'd like to be seeing a little more out of Skynx and Scott, it's interesting that they are going after each other pretty much right off the bat.

Also I'd like to know why Scott ninja voted Emp here.

Emp what are your thoughts atm? Who do you think is scum?

On June 14 2016 06:39 Jealous wrote:
Scott you should vote for who you want to vote for and not just follow me, because 1. I am a dumb newb and 2. I might shennanie again.

On June 14 2016 06:45 emperorchampion wrote:


This I'm a little confused about, I think btdt wanted to lynch you no?

On June 14 2016 06:39 emperorchampion wrote:
Also, scott:

On June 15 2016 07:43 Superbia wrote:


Why the fuck are you here 15m before EoD.

On June 15 2016 08:22 Jealous wrote:

I have questions but I'd rather see how Scott responds first.

Scott if you dodge this scenario in the next 24 hours I will raise hell.

On June 17 2016 06:12 Tictock wrote:
I think I'm giving up on Supers filter for now, so moving on.

Generally Skynx's filter is just blah.

This post is just shitty no matter how you look at it


Also interesting how Skynx made a big case on Quick D1 but since then hasn't done anything similar.
I
This post showed that Skynx was lurking around EoD1, poped up with this as soon as I brought up shennanigans onto BtDt or Skynx.


In This reads post Skynx lists BtDt as "null- can't really read him" but then he lists BtDt as someone he doesn't want to lynch because they are not a "big target"


Which also remines me of this post


This actually looks like a good basis for an association. Skynx first states that he doesn't want to lynch BtDt for some time, then posts a null read on him, and goes right back to saying he doesn't want to lynch him. Nowhere is there actual reasoning on BtDt just this back and forth.

Looking at Skynx's reactions to D3. This is pretty lackluster in that Skynx is not giving his own thoughts just accepting the thinking done by others.


but, his next few posts shows he's not really the convinced.





These posts are kinda interesting, this was his conclusion after filtering Emp.



The conclusion "I don't think he's town anymore, but is less scum than Scott & TT" is kinda strange especially when a lot of his posts in pg 5 of his filter seem to be making associative cases between Scott and myself.

This was when Skynx voted Emp,


from the followup posts though it is clear that he would preffer to lynch Scott or Myself still. So it seems like Skynx only voted Emp out of pressure and its interesting he never shifted his vote after this point.

After the flip


Yet... today nothing.