EPTApologies for not making any posts this evening, my friends wanted to play counter strike. I'm gonna head to work early tomorrow and play then, I double promise.
[M][Cap] Tortoise Mafia - Page 5
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
Apologies for not making any posts this evening, my friends wanted to play counter strike. I'm gonna head to work early tomorrow and play then, I double promise. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
Also HTS you were here during the votes. This is ludicrous. You know me. You think as the last scum I bussed my last buddy to go solo? And that I did it when it was absolutely not necessary? Or that my call for 'consolidating' was actually a call to move off DYH? Yeah, if I'm alive at the end you absolutely have to look again at everyone. But voting me now over people who didn't vote scum last round on a last minute shenanigan? Come on. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
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Stop distracting me anyway, the faster I leave work the faster I can get home and write these posts I've been talking about for ages. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On April 28 2016 02:18 Tumblewood wrote: I don't like fidei's response to being pushed this is a shitty reason and very easy to refute, but he's responding from a ground of "nah you guys are so silly I'm confirmed town" then again, I'd expect him to prioritize his survival a lot more if he were last scum hmmm not seeing anyone more convincing though I'm now home and sat at my computer and ready to start filter diving. Please wait what I come up with before voting. I gave up practising softball with my team for this, so I hope you all at least read what I have to say before mindlessly voting me. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
You know, for all the people voting me, I don't see anyone really considering anyone else (apart from gumshoe and GB against each other). When I flip town you're all going to have to rethink things. As far as I can see you're all just meandering towards my lynch. You're wasting time and this is exactly what mafia wants. | ||
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Fidei86
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Fidei86
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My working to get to this point is as follows: DAY 1 HTS's top scum read is LS all day. She consistently pushes him and consistently reads him as scum. She does not drop this read through EOD. At 22:44 BST she makes the following post: On April 22 2016 06:44 Half the Sky wrote: 19/40 I'm back, skimmed the thread, and reading filters. I'm seeing the contrarian (non-meta) reasons for townreads on LS to be coming down to a suicidal push on me, the meta reasons for reading him town are out the window unless you've forgotten Cell Mafia so quickly so any emotion he is displaying he's already proven he can fake that as mafia. So I am completely disregarding that. LS would still be my top active lynch. Definitely wouldn't lynch Koshi or Damdred and I need to re-read Tictock, the push on Tumbleweed seemed weird. For the inactives, just skimming filters, sicklucker is by far the top lynch for me in that category. Double checking gumshoe from the beginning atm, but if people aren't lynching LS, then I'd lynch sicklucker for consolidation. Note that she pings SL and says she is reconsidering gumshoe. At 23:02 BST she switches voting to SL. At that stage, she takes sicklucker to FOUR votes, with the next nearest wagon being FF on TWO. However, with town super spread out, it might well have appeared to HTS that SL was done for, and she wanted the town credit. Call it a bus of opportunity. At 23:19 BST she makes the following post, which is as far as I can see basically the only 'read' she makes of FF: On April 22 2016 07:19 Half the Sky wrote: 22/40 Now THIS is a remnant of the Dark Tournament (mafia) Fecalfeast. >_< Finally at 23:23 BST she makes the following post, switching to FF: On April 22 2016 07:23 Half the Sky wrote: 24/40 I switched to FF. My head is spinning right now. From a read flow perspective, it makes no sense for her to jump off her second top scum read (SL). HOWEVER, at this stage Damdred had voted SL at 23:09 BST, taking FF to THREE votes (and SL to three as well), and then gumshoe voted FF (with a detour at SL) at 23:16 BST taking SL to four and FF to three. HTS thus moved OFF a scum wagon that was behind and ON TO a town wagon that was already ahead. It is possible that she was looking to fortify SL's safety, I grant you. I also have a number of suspicions about Dani's play, mostly revolving around her having very few sustained pushes, asking lots of questions and not really doing anything with the information, voting FF basically out of the blue on EOD1 and GB again with not much explaining on EOD2. But I think I probably have a lot of fear / confirmation bias in my read of her. And I'd rather spend my time going through other filters than trying to reason out in my head why scum Dani votes EOD as she did. | ||
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Fidei86
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Fidei86
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I really don't like Dani's play this game. But I thought about it for a long time and I simply don't follow through on the scum logic of what Dani did EOD1, and not at the times she did it. Yes, scum Dani might have thought SL was done for and moved on to him. But if that was the case, why would she have not stayed on him once the lynch became FF? She would have known SL would have to die sooner or later (sooner, as it turned out), so the smart play was to stay on SL and take the credit. She didn't. Yes, of course she's capable of good play as mafia. This is not a scheme so wacky that it absolutely clears her. What I'm saying is that I need to find a scum and I don't have time for parsing each f'ing post she made. It's slightly self-inflicted on my part, since I could have played yesterday, but here we fucking are. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On April 28 2016 03:49 Half the Sky wrote: 24/40 I hate the bolded here but I'm going to deliberately keep my mouth shut as to why. It should be obvious I think at this point (hint: I've used it as an argument against at least one other person). Dani if you have something to say please fucking say it. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On April 22 2016 07:06 Tictock wrote: I think at this point the onus is on you to tell us why we shouldn't lynch you. As in, you really haven't done much at all this game. Ticktock, if you are here, I really think you have to explain this post and your vote D1. At this point, we were 24 minutes before lynch. At that stage, voting was highly contested between FF and SL. Three minutes later, Damdred switched his vote taking it to three on SL and three on FF. SL hammered at 23:16. You were in the thread. You saw a highly contested lynch, and nobody else was going to move to TW. Yet you didn't move. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On April 22 2016 06:38 Tictock wrote: I feel like I'm having more of an issue finding people I solidly think are town this game. Koshi feels like town Koshi, but he's kinda attacked half the game and his LS read was bull. HtS and Fidei are probably my strongest townreads based on tone, activity, and drive to solve the game. You (Damdred) strike me as town for starting off trying to generate discussion and trying to lead town now when votes are all over. Shape feels a little better to me having reread the game. I thought the way he approached a few of his reads felt towny, though tbf I think I'm largely going on something I noticed about his read on me so I take it with a grain of salt. GB and FF are floating in a "I think they are town... maybe" space for me. Which leaves me: 2. sicklucker 7. DoYouHas 8. Tumblewood 11. LightningStrike 12. gumshoe With regards to my post above, I also refer to the above post, where TT basically town reads FF and scum reads SL. But he does not vote to save his town read over one of his scum reads. And he posted on at least two occasions (before and after) how bad the lynch was. This is very suspicious to me. I shall continue reading your filter. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On April 28 2016 04:21 GlowingBear wrote: 29 I must say, although as weird as it sounds, that I'm starting to believe TT is the last Mafia. Does anyone understand why? Why don't you tell us? | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
The SL Omission At #158, TT makes a list post of people he would not be opposed to lynching. His only previous read of SL was at #112, when he said that SL was "kinda underwhelming". #122 was at 10:22 BST. #158 was at 21:09 BST. Later, TT says: A few people asked why I left SL out of my "lynch list" earlier. It's weak but I felt like his first couple of posts were him trying to get the game going by throwing out an early vote. His last post reacting to GB's push felt kinda genuine as well. His list post wasn't terrible and I kinda doubt he'd back off LS with the reasoning "hes so cute and trying hard" as scum. So while SL is being very low key this game I'm not feeling like that is scum indicative. In between those posts, the only post SL made was as follows: On April 20 2016 21:11 sicklucker wrote: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/Y7CxlX8.jpg) you need to chill dude I didnt even post in the vote thread its just for reactions mostly like always when I vote in the first 20 minutes.... I think the smart people are saving thire posts for tormorow/tonight when theres acual content to talk about. See ya then It's gibberish. There is no way that could possibly have influenced TT's read on him. SL's list post, which TT refers to, was not made until 01:30 BST THE NEXT DAY. So TT throws a little shade on SL, then leaves SL off his scum list, then he refers to a post that happened AFTER his scum list was made. The Tumble Case None of the posts in it are convincing. It reads as though he just went through Tumble's filter and negatively spun each of Tumble's points. First he says that Tumble's first three posts were contentless / notice me senpai. They weren't really. And fuck, Shapelog spent his first five posts INTENTIONALLY being dumb. Then he says Tumble 'pushed' Shape on policy lynches. Tumble was just pointing out something he thought didn't make sense. He didn't make a massive point on it. The rest of it is "he isn't reading the thread closely". At this stage lots of people were still dicking around / the thread was dead. All in all it's just a super meh case on a now confirmed townie that was made early in the day cycle. I don't want to make too much out of this, other than it's just all a bit ... meh. D1 Lynch Okay, this is the biggie. Bear in mind through ALL of this TT has his vote on TW, his top scum read. At #285 at 22:26 BST he posts this: Idk part of me thinks SL could be town, but I can't really find anything to back that up... he's been really lackluster and looking over his filter I don't see any motivation to find scum really. At #294, at 22:38 BST he posts this (shortened): GB and FF are floating in a "I think they are town... maybe" space for me. Which leaves me: 2. sicklucker 7. DoYouHas 8. Tumblewood 11. LightningStrike 12. gumshoe At 23:03 BST he posts this, in response to SL: On April 22 2016 07:06 Tictock wrote: I think at this point the onus is on you to tell us why we shouldn't lynch you. As in, you really haven't done much at all this game. He then posts again at 23:14 and 23:17 and three more posts before the deadline, one of which is: On April 22 2016 07:26 Tictock wrote: I got bad vibes from this lynch. Seems like it's gunna happen regardless and nobody agrees with my other reads so bleh. Maybe I'm wrong. *fingers crossed* Remember my analysis on HTS' EOD1 earlier. At 22:58 the vote was SL (3), FF (2), LS (2). At 23:09 it was SL (3) FF (3). Gumshoe hammered at 23:16 and then a bunch of people piled on late. TT watched a wagon build on one of his town reads, and the main / only competing wagon was one of his top scum reads, and someone he had thrown quite a lot of shade on (see #319 at 23:01 and #328 at 23:06). ALSO, and this is very important, his only scum read, Tumbleweed, was the FIRST onto FF at 22:49. TT then criticised gumshoe for getting onto the FF wagon at 23:22, saying it was "opportunistic". At both 23:26 and 23:29 he posts how he didn't like the lynch. TL;DR TT was present throughout the lynch, and chose to solo-wagon rather than voting FOR one of his scum reads (SL), in order to SAVE one of his town reads (FF), in circumstances where two of his top scum reads (TW and gum) were voting against his town read. The rest TT was unsure about DYH v GB, and eventually only got on DYH two minutes before deadline. I don't have a lot to say about that day really. TT was AFK for a lot ofit. His push on me is all wrong, and it's weird because it's like he went through what happened and ignored the context on everything. ?? TT doesn't have a big filter, but he does give a lot of reads. I follow his logic relatively well, and although he is dead wrong on me I haven't hated much of what he said. But what I do hate, I really hate. I think it's him. But I'm going to read GB and gumshoe now. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On April 28 2016 05:00 Koshi wrote: When you flip town we will obviously rethink things. Even with your recent posts you are the person who did the least work. And are the least townie overall. You are just the most logical lynch. Koshi. I beg you. Please think about this. I have played two scum games. Ask anyone - I was horrible. I had zero self confidence, I basically didn't interact with the thread for vast swathes of it. I was carried by my team both times. You might say 'well you've been rubbish this game'. True, to an extent, but at the totally different end of the spectrum. I've been all over the place, scum reading people then town reading people. ETC. That is the opposite of my super reactive scum meta. I did not need town cred at EOD2. Nobody apart from TT was on me. Nobody. Also, nobody apart from LS had said anything against DYH. The wagon would not have gotten going had I not got onto it. And DYH was the godfather. So if I was mafia I would have HAD to think that there was a decent chance of there being a cop who could just red check me. Of course I accept its possible it was a bus. If I was Damdred or ritoky or something, it could have been. This would have been my THIRD scum game. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/500060-newbie-student-mafia-xviii?user=Fidei86 This is my filter from SoTW 2. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/494436-season-of-the-witch-2?user=Fidei86 Please look at them before you commit to voting for me. I really think it could be TT - him having made "good posts" does not and cannot make up for his extremely anti-town play at EOD1. | ||
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Fidei86
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Fidei86
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Fidei86
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I am the Jailkeeper. I saved Damdred N1 (I got roleblocked) and Tumble N2. I saved Damdred right at the end of N1 - I was on HTS before that, because I figured she's strong town and a natural N1), but at the end I thought Damdred was a) more towny, b) more universally read as townie and therefore c) most likely to be the shot. I was fucking raging after Damdred flipped. I sent Artanis like three PMs yelling. I did not want to claim because we desperately need a save to get another mislynch and avoid 3v1 LYLO. The reason I've played like this is in large part because I thought that my killing DYH was SO TOWNIE that I might be the shot N3. And I really wanted to survive long enough to save TW. Obviously me drawing attention to myself worked too well. I am claiming now to give town enough time to find a new lynch. I think it should be TT. Can you please all now start thinking about the game rather than just waiving through this fucking mislynch on me. | ||
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